Winter Storm Xynthia kills 62 in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:21 PM GMT on March 01, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Devastating Winter Storm Xynthia ripped a swath of destruction through Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, and Germany over the weekend, killing at least 62 people. It was Europe's 5th deadliest winter storm of the past 60 years. Hardest hit was France, where at least 51 died. The storm also caused six deaths in Germany, including a 2-year-old boy blown into a river and drowned. Three people were dead in Spain, and Belgium, Portugal, and England had one fatality each. At least ten people are still missing. Most of the deaths in France occurred when a powerful storm surge topped by battering waves up to 25 feet high, hitting at high tide, smashed though the sea wall off the coastal town of L'Aiguillon-sur-Mer. A mobile home park built close to the sea wall was particularly hard-hit. The sea wall was several hundred years old, built in the time of Napoleon, and locating a mobile home park so close to it showed poor coastal development practices, critics said. The storm cut power to more than 1 million homes in France, and up to 1 million customers in Portugal also lost power. A few wind peak wind gusts measured during the storm:

Portugal
Pampilhosa da Serra 147 km/h (91 mph)
Penhas Douradas 126.1 km/h (78 mph)
Porto (Airport LPPR) 113km/h (70 mph)

Spain
Lardeira: 196.1 km/h (122 mph)
Serra do Eixe: 157 km/h (98 mph)
Campus de Vigo: 146.9 km/h (92 mph)
Gandara: 145.8 km/h (91 mph)

France
Eiffel Tower, Paris: 175 km/h (106 mph)
Saint-Clement of the Whales: 159km/h (99 mph)
Charente-Maritime: 161km/h (100 mph)

A Personal Weather Station in Les Portes-en-Re recorded sustained winds of 143 km/h (89 mph) gusting to 180 km/h (112 mph) before losing power at the height of the storm. According to Meteo France, the maximum recorded gust from Xynthia for elevations lower than 1200m was 160 km/h along the coast and 120 km/h inland. In 1999, Winter Storm Lothar brought gusts of almost 200 km/h to coastal areas and up to 160 km/h in the interior at these lower elevations.


Figure 1. Six-hour animation of the surface winds as Winter Storm Xynthia crossed the Bay of Biscay and smashed into France.

Destructive European storms of the past 60 years:
2010: Winter Storm Xynthia of February 27, 2010 killed 51 people in France, Spain, and neighboring countries, and did $2 - $4 billion in damage. Lowest pressure: 967 mb.

Winter Storm Klaus hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, 2009, and was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Minimum pressure: 967 mb.

Kyrill (January 18, 2007) killed at least 45, with Germany suffering the most fatalities (13). Minimum pressure: 964 mb.

Back-to-back winter storms Lothar and Martin December 26-28, 1999) killed 140 people, 88 of the victims in France. Minimum pressure: 961 mb (Lothar), 965 mb (Martin).

The Burns' Day Storm of 1990 killed 97, mostly in England. Minimum pressure: 949 mb.

The Great Storm of 1987 was Europe's "storm of the century". It killed 22 people in England and France. Minimum pressure: 953 mb.

The North Sea Flood of 1962 killed 318 people--315 of them in Hamburg, Germany.

The North Sea Flood of 1953 killed 2,000 people in the Netherlands and England.

Xynthia's warm air surge sets records
One reason Xynthia became so powerful is that it formed very far south, where it was able to tap into an airmass that was unusually warm and moist. Satellite measurements (Figure 2) showed a plume of high total precipitable water (the amount of precipitation one can produce by condensing all the water vapor from the surface to the top of the atmosphere), about 300% above average, flowing from southwest to northeast along Xynthia's cold front. Enhancing the amount of moisture was the presence of very warm sea surface temperatures 1°C above average along this plume. As this extra moisture flowed into the storm, the moisture condensed into rain, releasing the "latent heat" stored up in the water vapor (the extra energy that was originally used to evaporate the water into water vapor). This latent heat further intensified Xynthia. The storm's central pressure fell to 966 mb at the storm's peak intensity, reached at 18 GMT Saturday after it passed over Spain's northwest corner.

As warm, tropical air surged northeastwards in advance of Xynthia's cold front, it set several all-time high temperature records for the month of February. Melilla, Spain hit 34°C (93°F) at 3pm local time on the 27th, beating previous highest February temperature of 30.6°C, set in 1979. The temperature surged upwards a remarkable 9.1°C (16°F) in one hour as Xynthia's warm front passed through. Record February warmth was also observed in the Canary Islands as Xynthia's warm front passed though.


Figure 2. Satellite measurements show a region of high total precipitable water (the amount of precipitation one can produce by condensing all the water vapor from the surface to the top of the atmosphere) up to 300% above average, flowing from southwest to northeast along Xynthia's cold front. Enhancing the amount of moisture was the presence of very warm sea surface temperatures along this plume, about 1°C above average. If this pool of very warm water is still around in July, it could lead to an earlier than average start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS, and National Hurricane Center.

Next storm
For the the U.S., the next winter storm of note is a moderately strong low pressure system currently over Texas that is expected to move quickly eastwards today and Tuesday. The storm should bring an inch or so of snow to Atlanta and northeast Alabama, and 2 - 4" to the nearby mountains of South and North Carolina, including Charlotte. After that, the models show a long break from winter storm activity for the Eastern U.S. Beginning Sunday, it looks like it will be the Midwest's turn, when a powerful winter storm will drop out of the Rockies, then move across the northern tier of Midwestern states early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Xynthia - High seas in Carcavelos (Portugal) (rozzopt)
High seas an waves from storm Synthia, with storm-surge taking over the entire beach, and "attacking" bars usually 30meters away from the sea.
Xynthia - High seas in Carcavelos (Portugal)

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 909 - 859

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

909. StormChaser81
2:56 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Just keeps coming, but falls apart just inland.

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
908. AwakeInMaryland
2:55 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
907. TampaTom
2:21 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Not going to happen expect similar conditions to 2004.


Crap... OK, Florida... get ready...
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
906. P451
2:19 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Interesting read. It seems noone can do anything right. Be it satellite data or good old fashioned field work.


'Archaic' Network Provides Data Behind Global Warming Theory, Critics Say

By Joseph Abrams

- FOXNews.com

Critics are questioning the accuracy of a 120-year-old weather station network that measures surface temperature in the U.S. by tallying paper reports from volunteers whose data is rife with human error.

To measure weather, volunteers take readings at different times of day, round to the nearest whole number, and mark down up paper forms they mail in monthly.

Crucial data on the American climate, part of the basis for proposed trillion-dollar global warming legislation, is churned out by a 120-year-old weather system that has remained mostly unchanged since Benjamin Harrison was in the White House.

The network measures surface temperature by tallying paper reports sent in by snail mail from volunteers whose data, according to critics, often resembles a hodgepodge of guesswork, mathematical interpolation and simple human error.

"It's rather archaic," said Anthony Watts, a meteorologist who since 2007 has been cataloging problems in the 1,218 weather stations that make up the Historical Climatology Network.

"When the network was put together in 1892, it was mercury thermometers and paper forms. Today it's still much the same," he said.

The network relies on volunteers in the 48 contiguous states to take daily readings of high and low temperatures and precipitation measured by sensors they keep by their homes and offices. They deliver that information to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which uses it to track changes in the climate.

Car and plane exhaust warms the air, right? So why are the National Climate Data Center's thermometers so close to them? Here, sensors in 9 of the oddest locations.


Requirements aren't very strict for volunteers: They need a modicum of training and decent vision in at least one eye to qualify. And they're expected to take measurements seven days a week, 365 days a year.

That's a recipe for trouble, says Watts, who told FoxNews.com that less scrupulous members of the network often fail to collect the data when they go on vacation or are sick. He said one volunteer filled in missing data with local weather reports from the newspapers that stacked up while he was out of town.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Volunteers take their readings at different times of day, then round the temperatures to the nearest whole number and mark down their measurements on paper forms they mail in monthly to the NCDC headquarters in Ashville, N.C.

"You've got this kind of a ragtag network that's reporting the numbers for our official climate readings," said Watts, who found that 90 percent of the stations violated the government's guidelines for where they may be located.

Watts believes that poor placement of temperature sensors has compromised the system's data. Though they are supposed to be situated in empty clearings, many of the stations are potentially corrupted by their proximity to heat sources, including exhaust pipes, trash-burning barrels, chimneys, barbecue grills, seas of asphalt %u2014 and even a grave.

Once the data reaches the NCDC, climate scientists in Ashville digitize the numbers and check to make sure there are no large anomalies. The introduction of electronic weather gauges into the system in the 1980s was a much-needed update, but the new and improved gauges measure temperatures slightly differently and must be corrected to sync up with the overall historic data.

If numbers appear faulty or if more than nine days are missing from a single month's tally, the whole month is thrown out, according to NCDC documents, and the Center uses a computer program to determine average temperatures at dozens of nearby stations to guess what the temperature would have been for the month at the unknown station.

The overall land temperature record produced by the NCDC is used by a number of top climate research centers, including the U.N.'s International Panel on Climate Change, NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, headed until recently by Phil Jones, who stepped down in the wake of the Climate-gate scandal.

What it boils down to, Watts says, is that some of the world's top climate scientists have been crunching numbers that were altered by their immediate surroundings, rounded by volunteers, guessed at by the NCDC if there was insufficient data, then further adjusted to correct for "biases," including the uneven times of day when measurements were taken -- all ending up with a number that is 0.6 degrees warmer than the raw data, which Watts believes is itself suspect.

But scientists at the NCDC say the system is an indispensable tool for measuring local temperatures, and that its readings are buttressed by the consensus drawn from the 8,000 surface stations that make up the Cooperative Observer Program, the overall national system of which the 1,218 stations in the Historical Climatology Network are just a part.

"We use the rest of the COOP network to help calibrate," said Jay Lawrimore, chief of the climate monitoring branch at NCDC. "It's used to do quality control."

NCDC climatologists carefully track temperature trends at local levels to ensure that the data submitted by volunteers is reliable, adjusting for the biases caused by the time of day when measurements are taken, for differences between old and new equipment, and to account for flukes that might be caused by poor siting.

The NCDC insists its adjusted numbers are an accurate representation of climatic reality, backed up by worldwide trends in air temperature, water temperature, glacier melt, plant flowering and other indicators of climate change.

"The signal appears to be robust, a reliable temperature signal," said Lawrimore.

But Watts says that even a single step %u2014 the rounding of the daily temperature %u2014 creates a margin of error about as large as the entire global warming trend scientists are hoping to confirm.

It all could become moot within a decade, as the climate center's outmoded Pony Express is currently being replaced with a screaming bullet train.

Lawrimore told FoxNews.com that about 5 percent of the historical network has already been automated, but a far more important development has been the launching of the digitally run Climate Reference Network (CRN), a system of 114 stations that went fully online in 2008.

The CRN was carefully sited in fields around the country and automatically records daily climate data and transmits it at midnight local time, sending it by satellite and eliminating the snail-mail delay, the rounding of numbers and any elements of human error.

But that doesn't mean the Historical Climate Network is going away, say NCDC scientists, who will continue to rely on its volunteers' readings to gather climate data on the local level.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
905. Jeff9641
2:14 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting altesticstorm10:


Neutral for the hurricane season ------------------>> neutral to weak La Nina for the winter


Not going to happen expect similar conditions to 2004.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
904. Orcasystems
1:59 PM GMT on March 03, 2010


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
903. TampaTom
1:57 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Did someone say Doom Flag?

Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
902. altesticstorm10
1:56 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hard to say but La Nina doesn't look likely next year. Nuetral conditions is problably right.


Neutral for the hurricane season ------------------>> neutral to weak La Nina for the winter
901. Jeff9641
1:55 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting altesticstorm10:

El Nino is forecast by nearly every model to die by mid-May or so. A neutral hurricane season is predicted, followed by a (probably weak) La Nina beginning in like October. We don't know how strong this La Nina will be next winter though -- not that we, as hurricane bloggers, care about the winters.


Hard to say but La Nina doesn't look likely next year. Nuetral conditions is problably right.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
900. altesticstorm10
1:51 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting cg2916:

They're forecasting a very active season though. But who knows? We may get another 2009.

El Nino is forecast by nearly every model to die by mid-May or so. A neutral hurricane season is predicted, followed by a (probably weak) La Nina beginning in like October. We don't know how strong this La Nina will be next winter though -- not that we, as hurricane bloggers, care about the winters.
899. Jeff9641
1:49 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting cg2916:

They're forecasting a very active season though. But who knows? We may get another 2009.
Quoting leftovers:
you sure can see better than me dont think anyone has a good grasp of what might happen it all depends whether this el nino weakens


Agree El-Nino may return next winter. Nuetral conditions or weak El-Nino is very likely next winter. Anyone in Florida over the cool weather well guess what low to mid 80's next week for Central Florida with very active thunderstorms in the afternoons. Yes, it will be warm but with this active southern jet this will open the door for severe wx next week and not just Florida either. Central and East Texas could deal with possibly a major severe wx event early next week.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
898. PensacolaDoug
1:40 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
JB defending himmself this morn.

WEDNESDAY 7 A.M.
ADDRESSING AN ATTACK.

Not a good day for me yesterday. I spoke at the 9-12 committee a week ago and explained why I had "sympathy for Michael Mann" and why I think PSU should take this and turn it into a series of debates with him. I asked the crowd to understand that we all have weaknesses and explained how I have seen myself, in forecast situations, dismiss something and wind up wrong. Well a local doctor wrote me on this and said that he disagreed and I ought to examine my Catholic faith because of this. Funny, the Catholic faith I was taught had compassion and understanding as a tenet, not string 'em up, it will teach them a lesson.

In the meantime, I have caught the attention of the McCarthy-type inquisitor of the environmental movement Joe Romm, who completely twists my ideas on the weather in a blog ripping me apart. Apparently Mr. Romm is either so blinded by his agenda, or simply can't listen to what is being said, that he doesn't understand my forecast in Europe and the United States is that, a forecast for Europe and the United States and not the whole globe. And so he takes snippets of what I said then says I said one thing then the other. Now I am bringing this up simply because after sleeping on it, I think it's a good topic for this blog, and it makes my point. People are being driven by something other than getting the right answer... getting their answer.

What can you do with things like this? I am admitting to what was forecasted beforehand.. a spike in the overall global temp is occurring, but the temps in Europe and the United States were very cold this winter. It;s not MANMADE global warming that is causing either, though he thinks it is. Here is the kicker. I have one person telling me to re-examine my walk with God because I see the other side of the argument, and he is mad, and another coming after me for a forecast I hit. It was stated beforehand that the Earth would warm because of the nino. He claims I said February would be cold.. and I did say that, for THE UNITED STATES. As soon as those monthly temps have come in on Dr. Spencer's site, up they go here.

This global warming argument is a joke (way overblown) as far as the science goes. If it's happening, we will get our answer soon enough. The more I look at it, the more I realize that people have a vested interest in what is almost nothing, a matter of just waiting out the cycle and finally having a consistent measuring stick (satellite data). Simply go out 30 years and see if it's as cold as it was 30 years ago, which will take some doing but I believe will happen. What is so darn hard to see about that? If it warms more, though I don't think it will, then Dr. Mann and the rest are right. If it cools back to where it was, then I am right. If it's in between, then we can fight some more. We will get an answer in 20 or 30 years, and I think it will be that CO2 is no big deal, and that there are a lot of people with interests that have nothing to do with science or the right answer here. The Earth is not going to blow up or become like Venus, which I suspect was created with its CO2 problem, not a product of fossil fuel burning Venutians burning themselves out of their planet. But these people will stop at nothing to drive home their agenda, whatever it is. They use other examples, or twist things, to drive home their point. It's a looney bin, and it's too bad it's killing the fun we can have with the weather.

But it's amazing to me that the one guy that is the most open-minded here.. in other words I believe there is no human-induced warming but understand why someone might think that, and we will get our answer in the next 20 or 30 years, can get it from both sides. Moral is that this issue is not about science, and that idea is the one I am most confident of.

Now that I got that off my chest (maybe I am mad this storm isn't working out) I can get back to doing the work of the American weather weenie.

A page from Bill Clinton, eh?

Ciao for now.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
897. cg2916
1:37 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Is anyone else on?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
896. cg2916
1:36 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
NASA finds moon craters filled with ice

WASHINGTON: A US radar launched into orbit aboard an Indian spacecraft has detected craters filled with ice on the moon's north pole, NASA says.

The US space agency's Mini-SAR radar found more than 40 small craters ranging in diameter from 1.6 to 15 kilometres, each full of water ice.

''Although the total amount of ice depends on its thickness, it's estimated there could be at least 600 million tonnes of water ice,'' NASA said in a statement.

The finding came weeks after the US President, Barack Obama, halted US ambitions to return astronauts to the moon.

The findings ''show the moon is an even more interesting and attractive scientific, exploration and operational destination than people had previously thought'', said Paul Spudis, the lead investigator at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas.

The Mini-SAR has spent the past year mapping the moon's permanently shadowed polar craters that are not visible from Earth, using the polarisation properties of reflected radio waves.

The findings, to be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, are consistent with the findings of other NASA instruments and add to the growing scientific understanding of the manifold forms of water found on the moon.

NASA's Moon Mineralogy Mapper, which was also on board India's Chandrayaan-1, has discovered water molecules in the moon's polar regions, and water vapour was detected by NASA's Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite, LCROSS.

Indian scientists reported last year in Science that they had analysed light waves detected by NASA-made instruments on board the Indian satellite, and determined that they showed there was water on the surface of the moon.

Until then, scientists had advanced the theory that, except for the possibility of ice at the bottom of craters, the moon was completely dry.

Agence France-Presse


Water ice? Wow... this is amazing. We found water on the Moon and we're like "Ah, forget Mars, it's the Moon now!"
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
895. cg2916
1:35 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
talk about a dead blog, God Evening all

Tell me about it. Let's go to Weather Chat.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
894. cg2916
1:34 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting leftovers:
you sure can see better than me dont think anyone has a good grasp of what might happen it all depends whether this el nino weakens

They're forecasting a very active season though. But who knows? We may get another 2009.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
893. cg2916
1:33 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys dosen't this look a little...

more where that came from

I doubt it seriously.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
892. AussieStorm
1:31 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
NASA finds moon craters filled with ice

WASHINGTON: A US radar launched into orbit aboard an Indian spacecraft has detected craters filled with ice on the moon's north pole, NASA says.

The US space agency's Mini-SAR radar found more than 40 small craters ranging in diameter from 1.6 to 15 kilometres, each full of water ice.

''Although the total amount of ice depends on its thickness, it's estimated there could be at least 600 million tonnes of water ice,'' NASA said in a statement.

The finding came weeks after the US President, Barack Obama, halted US ambitions to return astronauts to the moon.

The findings ''show the moon is an even more interesting and attractive scientific, exploration and operational destination than people had previously thought'', said Paul Spudis, the lead investigator at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas.

The Mini-SAR has spent the past year mapping the moon's permanently shadowed polar craters that are not visible from Earth, using the polarisation properties of reflected radio waves.

The findings, to be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, are consistent with the findings of other NASA instruments and add to the growing scientific understanding of the manifold forms of water found on the moon.

NASA's Moon Mineralogy Mapper, which was also on board India's Chandrayaan-1, has discovered water molecules in the moon's polar regions, and water vapour was detected by NASA's Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite, LCROSS.

Indian scientists reported last year in Science that they had analysed light waves detected by NASA-made instruments on board the Indian satellite, and determined that they showed there was water on the surface of the moon.

Until then, scientists had advanced the theory that, except for the possibility of ice at the bottom of craters, the moon was completely dry.

Agence France-Presse

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
891. leftovers
1:31 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting altesticstorm10:
I don't see a major hurricane coming in from the east gulf to hit florida until perhaps October.
you sure can see better than me dont think anyone has a good grasp of what might happen it all depends whether this el nino weakens
890. AussieStorm
1:30 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Chilean quake shifted Earth's axis: NASA scientist

The earthquake that killed more than 700 people in Chile probably shifted the Earth's axis and shortened the day, a National Aeronautics and Space Administration scientist said.

Earthquakes can involve shifting hundreds of kilometres of rock by several metres, changing the distribution of mass on the planet. This affects the Earth's rotation, said Richard Gross, a geophysicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, who uses a computer model to calculate the effects.

"The length of the day should have got shorter by 1.26 microseconds [millionths of a second]," Gross, said in an emailed reply to questions.
"The axis about which the Earth's mass is balanced should have moved by 2.7 milliarcseconds [about eight centimetres]."

The changes can be modelled, though they're difficult to detect, given their small size, Gross said.

Some changes may be more obvious and islands may have shifted, said Andreas Rietbrock, a professor of Earth Sciences at Britain's Liverpool University who has studied the area impacted, though not since the latest temblor.

Santa Maria Island off the coast near Concepcion, Chile's second-largest city, may have been raised two metres as a result of the quake, Rietbrock said in a telephone interview.

He said the rocks there show evidence pointing to past earthquakes shifting the island upward in the past.

'Ice-Skater Effect'


"It's what we call the ice-skater effect," David Kerridge, head of Earth hazards and systems at the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh, said in a telephone interview.

"As the ice skater [moves] when she's going around in a circle, and she pulls her arms in, she gets faster and faster. It's the same idea with the Earth going around if you change the distribution of mass, the rotation rate changes."

Rietbrock said he hasn't been able to get in touch with seismologists in Concepcion to discuss the quake, which registered 8.8 on the Richter scale.

"What definitely the earthquake has done is made the Earth ring like a bell," Rietbrock said.

The magnitude 9.1 Sumatran quake in 2004 that generated an Indian Ocean tsunami shortened the day by 6.8 microseconds and shifted the axis by about 2.3 milliarcseconds, Gross said.

The changes happen on the day and then carry on "forever", Benjamin Fong Chao, dean of Earth Sciences of the National Central University in Taiwan, said in an email.

"This small contribution is buried in larger changes due to other causes, such as atmospheric mass moving around on Earth," Chao said.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
889. AussieStorm
1:21 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
talk about a dead blog, God Evening all
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
888. altesticstorm10
1:06 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
I don't see a major hurricane coming in from the east gulf to hit florida until perhaps October.
887. wunderkidcayman
12:37 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
hi guys dosen't this look a little...

more where that came from
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12419
886. caribbeantracker01
12:17 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
is it me orr is the sea surface temps excessively hot for this time of d year???????
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
885. leftovers
10:54 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
good morning everyone cold nasty and windy 49f e cent florida
884. tornadodude
9:35 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
goodnight all :p

well morning?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
883. TampaSpin
5:17 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Nite all! Got a long day tomorrow! NITE NITE
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
882. Levi32
4:54 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


You let me know when you wantta do that and we will get StormW on board also to do the same and do a April Fool joke in August.......LOL


Or for real in April....I'll find something that looks like a tropical wave over Africa lol...

During a real storm would be more fun though :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
881. tornadodude
4:54 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
880. TampaSpin
4:53 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Nah I'm just gonna randomly scare the living daylights out of everyone sometime when the wishcasters are running rampant in here.


You let me know when you wantta do that and we will get StormW on board also to do the same and do a April Fool joke in August.......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
879. taco2me61
4:51 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


That is not good enough i Want the DOOM FLAG we will be hoisting this year for a Hurricane especially the one that comes toward Sarasota.......LOL......OMG you know i am kidding.


Oh no you are not kidding at ALL the "Flag will go UP"
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
878. Levi32
4:50 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


That is not good enough i Want the DOOM FLAG we will be hoisting this year for a Hurricane especially the one that comes toward Sarasota.......LOL......OMG you know i am kidding.


Nah I'm just gonna randomly scare the living daylights out of everyone sometime when the wishcasters are running rampant in here.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
877. TampaSpin
4:48 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting Ossqss:


Na, couldn't be right or associated with the flip thing, could it?

\



Interesting if nothing else. This PDF is free :)

http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3230




That is not good enough i Want the DOOM FLAG we will be hoisting this year for a Hurricane especially the one that comes toward Sarasota.......LOL......OMG you know i am kidding.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
876. TampaSpin
4:45 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting taco2me61:
I don't know if I can leave you guys alone
or something just might happen....

Taco :0)


Bro i would sleep with only 1 eye half shut in fear of what Levi might bring upon us all! You know what an evil AGW person he is.....LOL. HE'S gonna figure out some way of starting an ICE AGE i just know it, just to show the world!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
875. Ossqss
4:45 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


I agree. Those magnetic fields snap like rubber bands on the sun, sending out a flying ****load of solar energy.


Na, couldn't be right or associated with the flip thing, could it?

\



Interesting if nothing else. This PDF is free :)

http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3230


Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
874. altesticstorm10
4:45 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
That's true, JRRP, but as our misinformed friend stated two pages ago, a lot more factors have to do with the overall activity of the hurricane season besides SSTs and TCHP. Also, I've seen those maps side-by-side, and 2008 was barely stronger than 2007...the conditions, however, were more favorable in 2008 (the lack of dry air and dust).

The Gulf will warm up to above average by June, easily. El Nino won't linger on until August - it is likely it will die a merciless death sometime in April/May as it did in 2005. 2005 had a weaker than average Bermuda High and a negative NAO, as this year is forecast to - this will keep shearing trade winds nearly calm and keep the dry air from scorching the MDR and eating invests' convection for breakfast like it did in 2007. 2005 had well above average SSTs as this year has already - especially in the MDR and near Africa. The dust level is actually predicted to be lower than in 2005, and the TCHP level is already higher than in 2005 when it was astronomically high.

Unless these predictions turn out to be wrong, it is quite plausible that we do see the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season rivaling the year 2005. To say there's little to no chance that this year will rival 2005 is stupid. To say this year will most definately rival 2005 is also stupid - we'll find out more in May. It's only March, guys. It's a wait-and-see process.
873. taco2me61
4:43 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
I don't know if I can leave you guys alone
or something just might happen....

Taco :0)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
872. TampaSpin
4:42 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
So this year instead of rising the hurricane flag we raise the doom Flag....i know Ossq has something in his arsinal to show us a DOOM FLAG !
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
871. Levi32
4:40 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


Wow...that was cool! How did that happen? (The double quote...)


You mean like this.....you accidentally hit the quote button twice :P

(yes I'll delete the long post after he sees it lol)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
870. TampaSpin
4:40 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
You all got some issues.....if the sky falls tonite i'm not taking the blame as i usually do on here......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
869. Levi32
4:39 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


You guys are going to have to remember to lay one of those "doom"s on the blog when a cane makes landfall.


Oh I will....that will beat Drak's line: "OMG PINHOLE EYE WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!! RUN!!"


Lol goodnight Oz :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
868. taco2me61
4:39 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Nite Levi and CycloneOz then everybody else....
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
867. CycloneOz
4:38 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


You guys are going to have to remember to lay one of those "doom"s on the blog when a cane makes landfall.


Wow...that was cool! How did that happen? (The double quote...)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3891
866. CycloneOz
4:38 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Or with another big DOOM!!! in your face lol.
Quoting Levi32:


Or with another big DOOM!!! in your face lol.


You guys are going to have to remember to lay one of those "doom"s on the blog when a cane makes landfall.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3891
865. tornadodude
4:37 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
LOL!

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
864. Levi32
4:36 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:
Yep, I'm beddie bye, too.

I hope I don't dream about "crustal shift." I might wake up with sleep in my eyes.


Or with another big DOOM!!! in your face lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
863. CycloneOz
4:35 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:
Nite TAco...Sleep well my friend!


I'll donate, I'm just waiting to be the one to put him over the top so I get all the glory!

j/k...I am going to donate...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3891
862. taco2me61
4:34 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
You too tampaspin

oh yea keep the funds coming....

Taco :0)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
861. CycloneOz
4:34 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Dude that was an accidental quote of Tampaspin's that ended up in my comment LOL.


I know...but I replied to yours so I wouldn't have to delete all those "bigs."

Doom da da doom doom doom! LOL!!!!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3891
860. CycloneOz
4:33 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Yep, I'm beddie bye, too.

I hope I don't dream about "crustal shift." I might wake up with sleep in my eyes.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3891
859. Levi32
4:33 AM GMT on March 03, 2010
Night Taco :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684

Viewing: 909 - 859

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.