Winter Storm Xynthia kills 62 in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:21 PM GMT on March 01, 2010

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Devastating Winter Storm Xynthia ripped a swath of destruction through Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, and Germany over the weekend, killing at least 62 people. It was Europe's 5th deadliest winter storm of the past 60 years. Hardest hit was France, where at least 51 died. The storm also caused six deaths in Germany, including a 2-year-old boy blown into a river and drowned. Three people were dead in Spain, and Belgium, Portugal, and England had one fatality each. At least ten people are still missing. Most of the deaths in France occurred when a powerful storm surge topped by battering waves up to 25 feet high, hitting at high tide, smashed though the sea wall off the coastal town of L'Aiguillon-sur-Mer. A mobile home park built close to the sea wall was particularly hard-hit. The sea wall was several hundred years old, built in the time of Napoleon, and locating a mobile home park so close to it showed poor coastal development practices, critics said. The storm cut power to more than 1 million homes in France, and up to 1 million customers in Portugal also lost power. A few wind peak wind gusts measured during the storm:

Portugal
Pampilhosa da Serra 147 km/h (91 mph)
Penhas Douradas 126.1 km/h (78 mph)
Porto (Airport LPPR) 113km/h (70 mph)

Spain
Lardeira: 196.1 km/h (122 mph)
Serra do Eixe: 157 km/h (98 mph)
Campus de Vigo: 146.9 km/h (92 mph)
Gandara: 145.8 km/h (91 mph)

France
Eiffel Tower, Paris: 175 km/h (106 mph)
Saint-Clement of the Whales: 159km/h (99 mph)
Charente-Maritime: 161km/h (100 mph)

A Personal Weather Station in Les Portes-en-Re recorded sustained winds of 143 km/h (89 mph) gusting to 180 km/h (112 mph) before losing power at the height of the storm. According to Meteo France, the maximum recorded gust from Xynthia for elevations lower than 1200m was 160 km/h along the coast and 120 km/h inland. In 1999, Winter Storm Lothar brought gusts of almost 200 km/h to coastal areas and up to 160 km/h in the interior at these lower elevations.


Figure 1. Six-hour animation of the surface winds as Winter Storm Xynthia crossed the Bay of Biscay and smashed into France.

Destructive European storms of the past 60 years:
2010: Winter Storm Xynthia of February 27, 2010 killed 51 people in France, Spain, and neighboring countries, and did $2 - $4 billion in damage. Lowest pressure: 967 mb.

Winter Storm Klaus hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, 2009, and was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Minimum pressure: 967 mb.

Kyrill (January 18, 2007) killed at least 45, with Germany suffering the most fatalities (13). Minimum pressure: 964 mb.

Back-to-back winter storms Lothar and Martin December 26-28, 1999) killed 140 people, 88 of the victims in France. Minimum pressure: 961 mb (Lothar), 965 mb (Martin).

The Burns' Day Storm of 1990 killed 97, mostly in England. Minimum pressure: 949 mb.

The Great Storm of 1987 was Europe's "storm of the century". It killed 22 people in England and France. Minimum pressure: 953 mb.

The North Sea Flood of 1962 killed 318 people--315 of them in Hamburg, Germany.

The North Sea Flood of 1953 killed 2,000 people in the Netherlands and England.

Xynthia's warm air surge sets records
One reason Xynthia became so powerful is that it formed very far south, where it was able to tap into an airmass that was unusually warm and moist. Satellite measurements (Figure 2) showed a plume of high total precipitable water (the amount of precipitation one can produce by condensing all the water vapor from the surface to the top of the atmosphere), about 300% above average, flowing from southwest to northeast along Xynthia's cold front. Enhancing the amount of moisture was the presence of very warm sea surface temperatures 1°C above average along this plume. As this extra moisture flowed into the storm, the moisture condensed into rain, releasing the "latent heat" stored up in the water vapor (the extra energy that was originally used to evaporate the water into water vapor). This latent heat further intensified Xynthia. The storm's central pressure fell to 966 mb at the storm's peak intensity, reached at 18 GMT Saturday after it passed over Spain's northwest corner.

As warm, tropical air surged northeastwards in advance of Xynthia's cold front, it set several all-time high temperature records for the month of February. Melilla, Spain hit 34°C (93°F) at 3pm local time on the 27th, beating previous highest February temperature of 30.6°C, set in 1979. The temperature surged upwards a remarkable 9.1°C (16°F) in one hour as Xynthia's warm front passed through. Record February warmth was also observed in the Canary Islands as Xynthia's warm front passed though.


Figure 2. Satellite measurements show a region of high total precipitable water (the amount of precipitation one can produce by condensing all the water vapor from the surface to the top of the atmosphere) up to 300% above average, flowing from southwest to northeast along Xynthia's cold front. Enhancing the amount of moisture was the presence of very warm sea surface temperatures along this plume, about 1°C above average. If this pool of very warm water is still around in July, it could lead to an earlier than average start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS, and National Hurricane Center.

Next storm
For the the U.S., the next winter storm of note is a moderately strong low pressure system currently over Texas that is expected to move quickly eastwards today and Tuesday. The storm should bring an inch or so of snow to Atlanta and northeast Alabama, and 2 - 4" to the nearby mountains of South and North Carolina, including Charlotte. After that, the models show a long break from winter storm activity for the Eastern U.S. Beginning Sunday, it looks like it will be the Midwest's turn, when a powerful winter storm will drop out of the Rockies, then move across the northern tier of Midwestern states early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Xynthia - High seas in Carcavelos (Portugal) (rozzopt)
High seas an waves from storm Synthia, with storm-surge taking over the entire beach, and "attacking" bars usually 30meters away from the sea.
Xynthia - High seas in Carcavelos (Portugal)

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I don't believe this year we are going to get lucky with wind shear. It is going to be there but not as this past year. 2009 was EL NINO = strong wind shear. 2010 will be La NINA OR NEUTRAL= less wind shear
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708. xcool
Biloxi rigth by my house lol
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Quoting superweatherman:
OR


Looks alot like last year. Throw in the 'cane killer shear...and ding ding ding! We have a match!
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Quoting superweatherman:
I my option this picture is going to tell it all where the storms are going to go.
THE BERMUDA HIGH


My top three landfall candidates this year are:

1) Biloxi
2) Ft. Walton Beach / Destin
3) Panama City Beach

You folks in those cities don't worry. I'm very bad at future-casting, but a Bermuda High as powerful as the one in the graphic would send 'em right on into the Gulf just like that.
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OR
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I my option this picture is going to tell it all where the storms are going to go.
THE BERMUDA HIGH
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703. xcool
March 02, 2010
An early peek at this year's hurricane season. (It looks active)


Let's start with this: Hurricane season outlooks are, at best, very general guidelines for what to expect during an upcoming year. However, last year forecasters did, in fact, correctly predict a substantially lower number of storms for 2009 than we saw in 2008.

So what's the prediction for this year? William Gray and Phil Klotzbach already released their first prediction way back in December (11-16 named storms), which they will update next month.

And this week ImpactWeather, a private forecasting company in Houston, will release its prediction. The company will call for 14 named storms (9.6 is the long-term average) and 7 hurricanes.

This far in advance of hurricane season forecasters can begin to assess two important factors that help control the number of storms and their intensity: sea surface temperatures and wind shear. Here's ImpactWeather's rationale:

Sea Surface Temperatures: As with any hurricane season forecast, one of the primary tools we use to make our prognosis is the study of water temperature anomalies in the main development region (the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean Sea). Compared to last year at this time, water temperature anomalies are currently averaging from 2.0 to 3.0C (3.6 to 5.4F) higher, meaning there is considerably more available heat content for tropical cyclones to develop. We expect these warmer than normal sea surface temperatures to persist through the hurricane season.

Wind shear: One of the main indicators we look at to determine the intensity of wind shear in any given tropical season is whether there will be an El Niño. The presence of an El Niño will produce higher westerly wind shear, resulting in a net reduction of named tropical cyclones. There is currently a moderate El Niño in place across the Pacific Ocean, but we expect it to quickly weaken this spring and likely dissipate by the summer. So El Niño should not be much of a factor. Over the Atlantic, we expect the Bermuda High to average a little weaker than normal, which should result in slightly less easterly low-level wind shear over the MDR. This may play a role in keeping the Tropical Atlantic a bit more active.

Here's an updated sea surface temperature map from the National Hurricane Center that shows the higher temperature in the main development region discussed above. You'll note that temperatures are especially warm where tropical waves come off the African coast and sometimes develop into tropical storms.


National Hurricane Center

You might also notice that the Gulf of Mexico is quite cool, relative to its normal levels for this time of year, as a result of the very cold winter that Texas and the southeastern United States have experienced. Unfortunately the cooler-than-normal water will likely not linger into hurricane season.

"There are signals this trend is on the decrease right now as milder temperatures move back across the southern U.S. over the next week or two," ImpactWeather's Fred Schmude told me. " We expect to see Gulf temperatures move back closer to normal by the end of spring or early part of summer (June-July) and probably average near to slightly above normal during the critical months of August, September and October."

Slightly above normal, of course, is better than warmer-than-bathwater.

In summary: We can't say much yet, but at this point it seems very likely that this year's hurricane season will be quite a bit busier than last year's quiet season (with just nine storms). That's because the two primary factors forecasters can begin to assess about hurricane season this far out, sea surface temperatures and wind shear, are both positive for an active season.
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Quoting StormChaser81:

Ya they can keep earthquakes, thats something I'd be happy not to see in my life time.

Give me a hurricane or severe weather any day.


that's funny because i've heard people here say the same only reversed.

i guess it's really not that funny. lol
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1680
In reference to my previous post (#681), take a look at just the difference between moderate La Ninas and strong La Ninas. I looked at the ONI table, and conveniently, there have been 4 of each during the Atlantic hurricane season since 1950, which makes visual representation nicely balanced. The following images show the tracks of all named storms for the 4 strong La Ninas, and then the 4 moderate La Ninas:

Strong La Ninas:



Moderate La Ninas:



Notice first of all how the set of moderate La Nina years plainly had more storms (49, average of 12 per year) than the strong La Nina years (41, average of 10 per year). Also notice how many more Cape Verde storms east of 40W there were in the moderate years, whereas the strong years saw tracks and formations more focused to the west, closer to the Antilles Islands. This is due to the large amount of heat that a strong La Nina drains from the tropical oceans and atmosphere, which results in less storms in the deep tropical breeding grounds of the eastern Atlantic. The other thing very noticable is the greater concentration of tracks near the SE U.S. coast during moderate La Ninas, as opposed to strong La Ninas. Also, a far greater percentage of the tracks near the east coast were hurricanes or major hurricanes during moderate La Nina years, evidenced by all the red (hurricane) and dark red (major hurricane) tracks you see in the 2nd image.

If you're wondering about the accuracy of some of these older years, there were actually more years (2) of the moderate La Nina set that were before the satellite era, and only one year of the strong La Nina set was before the satellite era. I took a brief look at the 11 weak La Nina years and 23 neutral years that have occured since 1950 as well, and although it's hard to tell due to the much greater number of years in the set, it looks like the east coast gets threatened a whole lot more during moderate La Ninas than any other time. This could suggest that, for the U.S. east coast at least, moderate La Ninas may provide the best balance of favorable conditions for a large number of strong hurricanes and landfalls in that particular area.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
It aint in sight yet KOTG

Mid City Station, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Overcast
45.2 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 40 °F
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 35 °F
Wind: 10.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 12.0 mph
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting tornadodude:
springs ah coming
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
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Looks like quiet spring break weatherwise, for me at least.
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Thanks alot for the post. 93 in spain in february? It's like the same lat. as NYC right?

Here's a loop of Xynthia (whatever it's called)
Link

Referring to the SST image, will those warm temperatures mean an active cape verde season or will the el nino just kill them all off again???
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The freaking axis has shifted! Wow...



I've been knocked off my axis a time or two.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


It's mind boggling! An internal event to the Earth having such an influence globally.

It's so huge, I still can't wrap my mind around it.

How cool is it to live in times when things like this can be observed and measured.

The freaking axis has shifted! Wow...


Which is why I will try to do some further research.. perhaps asking Dr. Jeff Masters about it. Its a very curious subject. It would certainly blow all the AGW people away.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
WOW no video really, but listen. About 1:30 of shear terror. (got rid of embed because it was starting automatically)

Link

Another
Link

Ya they can keep earthquakes, thats something I'd be happy not to see in my life time.

Give me a hurricane or severe weather any day.
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WOW no video really, but listen. About 1:30 of shear terror. (got rid of embed because it was starting automatically)

Link

Another
Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Here's my theory, in case you missed it. I made this when the quake happened.

In Dec. 2004, we had that huge 9.2 quake. That might have effected the Earths axis.. during summer for example things might be warmer and more hurricanes, such as the massive 2005 hurricane season. Now, 9.0+ quakes have happened before, but none during the active hurricane cycle period and when they all happened there was usually in some way shape or form either a very devastating hurricane season, or an active one for that time period. This 8.8 isn't a 'megaquake' but its pretty close to that 9.0 mark. My theory is that because the quake has been found to change the tilt slightly, that seasons might be much more active and that article encourages me to do more research into the matter.


It's mind boggling! An internal event to the Earth having such an influence globally.

It's so huge, I still can't wrap my mind around it.

How cool is it to live in times when things like this can be observed and measured.

The freaking axis has shifted! Wow...
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Sorry no link but the Mobile radar has returns popping up. Virga or clear air turbulance is my guess.
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Quoting TampaTom:


I have to save that hotel cash for beer, ya know...

Ahhh, the flashbacks...


OMG: The Route 1 Pig Trough!

I am SO late...and outta' here...
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Quoting CycloneOz:


And they have him sleeping on the floor in a common area, such as is done in designated hurricane shelters.

I promise you, he's going to have the time of his life. We did things like this when I was in school. Ah...the memories! Sweet as honey! :)


I have to save that hotel cash for beer, ya know...

Ahhh, the flashbacks...
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Quoting leftovers:
the season #'s all depends on what happens to el nino


Here's my theory, in case you missed it. I made this when the quake happened.

In Dec. 2004, we had that huge 9.2 quake. That might have effected the Earths axis.. during summer for example things might be warmer and more hurricanes, such as the massive 2005 hurricane season. Now, 9.0+ quakes have happened before, but none during the active hurricane cycle period and when they all happened there was usually in some way shape or form either a very devastating hurricane season, or an active one for that time period. This 8.8 isn't a 'megaquake' but its pretty close to that 9.0 mark. My theory is that because the quake has been found to change the tilt slightly, that seasons might be much more active and that article encourages me to do more research into the matter.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


And they have him sleeping on the floor in a common area, such as is done in designated hurricane shelters.

I promise you, he's going to have the time of his life. We did things like this when I was in school. Ah...the memories! Sweet as honey! :)


LOL! As long as he brings the home-honey a nice present -- and that doesn't mean Conference SWAG (we all know that's for the kids' presents)! :)
Okay, later, really... it's been fun, but my better half knows about my blog addiction...
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Because CV storms in strong Ninas just keep going west and don't usually make the curve to the east coast?


No because there are hardly any Cape Verde long-track east coast landfalls during strong La Ninas, simply because there are fewer Cape Verde formations period. Take a look at east coast landfalls during neutral years compared to La Nina years and notice how many more Cape Verde long-track storms there are in neutral:





Now....based on these images alone we could reason that it could just be that La Nina directs more Cape Verde storms west, but when you look at the images you posted earlier, we can see that Cape Verde formations between 20W and 30W are much less during La Nina years than neutral years. Notice how the high probabilities shift westward during La Nina, with more formations in and east of the Caribbean, and northward over the Bahamas.





This is because although strong La Ninas provide favorable atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic, they can sometimes offset and overwhelm this effect by cooling the tropics too much and taking away from total heat content. At a certain point this overcomes La Nina's favorable atmospheric effect on the Atlantic, and the average amount of hurricane activity is lessened. This is why StormW's link showed more activity during neutral years. During neutral years, atmospheric conditions may not be as favorable, but they aren't severely limited either, and the oceans are able to remain warm. This is especially noticeable during years such as this year, where we are coming out of an El Nino which has already warmed the tropics and left a surplus of heat in the atmosphere. As we head into a cold-biased neutral (neutral but heading towards cold), this heat will still be available in the atmosphere for Atlantic hurricanes to utilize, and atmospheric conditions will also be favorable due to the cold-biased neutral conditions, which are the most dangerous for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

So during strong La Ninas, there are fewer Cape Verde hurricanes due to colder SSTs and less heat content in the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic. The balance that is found between total storm formations, number of east coast landfalls, and average strength of those landfalling storms, make cold-biased neutral years or weak La Ninas the worst years for the east coast, in my opinion.

Sorry that was pretty long-winded lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Tom has to PAY to teach?


And they have him sleeping on the floor in a common area, such as is done in designated hurricane shelters.

I promise you, he's going to have the time of his life. We did things like this when I was in school. Ah...the memories! Sweet as honey! :)
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Seems my theory that this cane season might be more active because of the quake might actually be accurate. Here's what NASA says
Link

The computer model used by Gross and his colleagues to determine the effects of the Chile earthquake effect also found that it should have moved Earth's figure axis by about 3 inches (8 cm or 27 milliarcseconds).

This might have HUGE implications.
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Quoting TampaTom:


It's all public record... have at it...


Okey dokey! Well domestic chores and canine terrors await, per usual...CYL.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
662. I got conferences confused, Tom (don't feel particularly guilty, tho). Atmo enlightened me... but I still think that would be worth a try, re press pass, if StormW wishes to give that a shot. Thanks.

ADD: OKAY, I see clarification... very intrestin'... hope StormW is lurking... or I'll wu him to check out posts.

Hey, thanks for presentation link Tom!! I'm going to booty that to post on my blog... wait, is that legal, LOL??? :)


It's all public record... have at it...
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drg0dOwnCountry said:

"We have a lot of species going extinct and with further warming humans could face this too."

Name one species that has gone extinct due to CO2 induced Global Warming.

We'll wait...
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662. I got conferences confused, Tom (don't feel particularly guilty, tho). Atmo enlightened me... but I still think that would be worth a try, re press pass, if StormW wishes to give that a shot. Thanks.

ADD: OKAY, I see clarification... very intrestin'... hope StormW is lurking... or I'll wu him to check out posts.

Hey, thanks for presentation link Tom!! I'm going to booty that to post on my blog... wait, is that legal, LOL??? :)
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Quoting Levi32:


I'd like to see those same graphs for major hurricanes only...I bet there are more majors that make landfall on the east coast during neutral or weak La Nina years than during moderate-strong Ninas.

Because CV storms in strong Ninas just keep going west and don't usually make the curve to the east coast?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:

We are talking about the National Hurricane Conference March 29-April 2.

http://www.hurricanemeeting.com/


Yes, the NHC - not the GHC (5/23 - 5/28)

The problem is that Storm would have to show media credentials...
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Quoting atmoaggie:

I hope you don't also include some provision that requires payment to vote...

I'll concede that there are some people out there I'd rather didn't (as well as drive on my road or have children), but I am not about to advocate legislation to that end.

Just as infringing on rights just a little brings fears of grossly doing so, one might mistake your comment to be a starting point to rule by landowners, as once was.


No...just ruled by taxpayers.

The "free-riders" caught a nice wave in 2008. The tsunami to come will upset some, but please many more.
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New Topic Posted:
South Florida StormWatch
(main site)
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Tom has to PAY to teach? That's as bad as my U.Md. 9-credit internship (aka slave labor for local TV station).


Yeah... presenters have to pay as well as attendees....
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Quoting TampaTom:


Yes, I am... but I'm not sure I can finagle anything... I had to get them to give me a special waiver because I'm only gonna be there from about noon to 5 p.m. on 4/1...

Storm COULD, however, call the media office to see if he might be able to get a press pass... Not sure if it's possible, but worth looking into...

We are talking about the National Hurricane Conference March 29-April 2.

http://www.hurricanemeeting.com/

OHHHHHHH, you are going to *both* of them...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Thanks for tracking down the exact post and terrapin-animal, Atmo. I was wishcasting it was the same conference...

I hope there'll be video and/or audio of all youse guyz doing your thing(s)...


Now, if you want to see me doing what I do...

Check out the Busting Hurricane Myths and Hurricane 101 presentations at our video page...
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Quoting Levi32:


Indeed, La Nina provides the conditions most favorable to a westward congregation of tracks, and more threat to the U.S. east coast. Neutral favors higher total season activity in terms of A.C.E. and number of named storms. Hard to say which is worse for the U.S. east coast....my guess would be that weak La Nina is the worst. A strong La Nina may direct more storms westward but they would be weaker on average than during a weaker La Nina or neutral conditions.


I'd like to see those same graphs for major hurricanes only...I bet there are more majors that make landfall on the east coast during neutral or weak La Nina years than during moderate-strong Ninas.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting atmoaggie:


AIM, where TampaTom is teaching is a completely different animal.


I'll be at the Governor's conference the week of 5/23...

I'll be at the National only on 4/1...
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Quakes don't indicate world's end

Quakes, 'canes, freezing cold, burning hot...none of these things mean that the world is coming to an end.

This is an unfortunate analogy, but here it goes. The Earth is as alive as you or I are. And it has movements like you and I do. It is unfortunate, but sometimes these movements happen right where we're at and we get caught under the pile.

If the Earth didn't do the amazing things that it does, we'd have a dead planet and you would not be reading this insensitive post.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


I would very much like to see our U.S. tax system operate in the same fashion, yes indeed.

I hope you don't also include some provision that requires payment to vote...

I'll concede that there are some people out there I'd rather didn't (as well as drive on my road or have children), but I am not about to advocate legislation to that end.

Just as infringing on rights just a little brings fears of grossly doing so, one might mistake your comment to be a starting point to rule by landowners, as once was.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Hmmm, excuse me in advance for meddling, officially it's called liaison and I used to actually get paid for it... hard habit to break.

TampaTom... are you teaching classes at the same Conference that we WU'ers want StormW to attend? It's the Orlando Conference, right? (So many disasters, so many conferences...a gal could get confused.)

I remember Atmo was dialing for passes and yanking chains, to no avail...

Can you bring him in the side door with you?


Yes, I am... but I'm not sure I can finagle anything... I had to get them to give me a special waiver because I'm only gonna be there from about noon to 5 p.m. on 4/1...

Storm COULD, however, call the media office to see if he might be able to get a press pass... Not sure if it's possible, but worth looking into...
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Quoting atmoaggie:


AIM, where TampaTom is teaching is a completely different animal.


Thanks for tracking down the exact post and terrapin-animal, Atmo. I was wishcasting it was the same conference...

I hope there'll be video and/or audio of all youse guyz doing your thing(s)...
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Quoting TampaTom:


And, don't forget the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference at the end of May... I'll be there to teach all week...

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Tom has to PAY to teach? That's as bad as my U.Md. 9-credit internship (aka slave labor for local TV station).

AIM, where TampaTom is teaching is a completely different animal.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
This is short, 26 seconds, but scary. Listen to her voice as she realizes how bad it is. And this is from Santiago, not the heart of the earthquake epicenter.

Amateur video shows Chile quake
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.