Winter Storm Xynthia kills 62 in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:21 PM GMT on March 01, 2010

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Devastating Winter Storm Xynthia ripped a swath of destruction through Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, and Germany over the weekend, killing at least 62 people. It was Europe's 5th deadliest winter storm of the past 60 years. Hardest hit was France, where at least 51 died. The storm also caused six deaths in Germany, including a 2-year-old boy blown into a river and drowned. Three people were dead in Spain, and Belgium, Portugal, and England had one fatality each. At least ten people are still missing. Most of the deaths in France occurred when a powerful storm surge topped by battering waves up to 25 feet high, hitting at high tide, smashed though the sea wall off the coastal town of L'Aiguillon-sur-Mer. A mobile home park built close to the sea wall was particularly hard-hit. The sea wall was several hundred years old, built in the time of Napoleon, and locating a mobile home park so close to it showed poor coastal development practices, critics said. The storm cut power to more than 1 million homes in France, and up to 1 million customers in Portugal also lost power. A few wind peak wind gusts measured during the storm:

Portugal
Pampilhosa da Serra 147 km/h (91 mph)
Penhas Douradas 126.1 km/h (78 mph)
Porto (Airport LPPR) 113km/h (70 mph)

Spain
Lardeira: 196.1 km/h (122 mph)
Serra do Eixe: 157 km/h (98 mph)
Campus de Vigo: 146.9 km/h (92 mph)
Gandara: 145.8 km/h (91 mph)

France
Eiffel Tower, Paris: 175 km/h (106 mph)
Saint-Clement of the Whales: 159km/h (99 mph)
Charente-Maritime: 161km/h (100 mph)

A Personal Weather Station in Les Portes-en-Re recorded sustained winds of 143 km/h (89 mph) gusting to 180 km/h (112 mph) before losing power at the height of the storm. According to Meteo France, the maximum recorded gust from Xynthia for elevations lower than 1200m was 160 km/h along the coast and 120 km/h inland. In 1999, Winter Storm Lothar brought gusts of almost 200 km/h to coastal areas and up to 160 km/h in the interior at these lower elevations.


Figure 1. Six-hour animation of the surface winds as Winter Storm Xynthia crossed the Bay of Biscay and smashed into France.

Destructive European storms of the past 60 years:
2010: Winter Storm Xynthia of February 27, 2010 killed 51 people in France, Spain, and neighboring countries, and did $2 - $4 billion in damage. Lowest pressure: 967 mb.

Winter Storm Klaus hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, 2009, and was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Minimum pressure: 967 mb.

Kyrill (January 18, 2007) killed at least 45, with Germany suffering the most fatalities (13). Minimum pressure: 964 mb.

Back-to-back winter storms Lothar and Martin December 26-28, 1999) killed 140 people, 88 of the victims in France. Minimum pressure: 961 mb (Lothar), 965 mb (Martin).

The Burns' Day Storm of 1990 killed 97, mostly in England. Minimum pressure: 949 mb.

The Great Storm of 1987 was Europe's "storm of the century". It killed 22 people in England and France. Minimum pressure: 953 mb.

The North Sea Flood of 1962 killed 318 people--315 of them in Hamburg, Germany.

The North Sea Flood of 1953 killed 2,000 people in the Netherlands and England.

Xynthia's warm air surge sets records
One reason Xynthia became so powerful is that it formed very far south, where it was able to tap into an airmass that was unusually warm and moist. Satellite measurements (Figure 2) showed a plume of high total precipitable water (the amount of precipitation one can produce by condensing all the water vapor from the surface to the top of the atmosphere), about 300% above average, flowing from southwest to northeast along Xynthia's cold front. Enhancing the amount of moisture was the presence of very warm sea surface temperatures 1°C above average along this plume. As this extra moisture flowed into the storm, the moisture condensed into rain, releasing the "latent heat" stored up in the water vapor (the extra energy that was originally used to evaporate the water into water vapor). This latent heat further intensified Xynthia. The storm's central pressure fell to 966 mb at the storm's peak intensity, reached at 18 GMT Saturday after it passed over Spain's northwest corner.

As warm, tropical air surged northeastwards in advance of Xynthia's cold front, it set several all-time high temperature records for the month of February. Melilla, Spain hit 34°C (93°F) at 3pm local time on the 27th, beating previous highest February temperature of 30.6°C, set in 1979. The temperature surged upwards a remarkable 9.1°C (16°F) in one hour as Xynthia's warm front passed through. Record February warmth was also observed in the Canary Islands as Xynthia's warm front passed though.


Figure 2. Satellite measurements show a region of high total precipitable water (the amount of precipitation one can produce by condensing all the water vapor from the surface to the top of the atmosphere) up to 300% above average, flowing from southwest to northeast along Xynthia's cold front. Enhancing the amount of moisture was the presence of very warm sea surface temperatures along this plume, about 1°C above average. If this pool of very warm water is still around in July, it could lead to an earlier than average start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS, and National Hurricane Center.

Next storm
For the the U.S., the next winter storm of note is a moderately strong low pressure system currently over Texas that is expected to move quickly eastwards today and Tuesday. The storm should bring an inch or so of snow to Atlanta and northeast Alabama, and 2 - 4" to the nearby mountains of South and North Carolina, including Charlotte. After that, the models show a long break from winter storm activity for the Eastern U.S. Beginning Sunday, it looks like it will be the Midwest's turn, when a powerful winter storm will drop out of the Rockies, then move across the northern tier of Midwestern states early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Xynthia - High seas in Carcavelos (Portugal) (rozzopt)
High seas an waves from storm Synthia, with storm-surge taking over the entire beach, and "attacking" bars usually 30meters away from the sea.
Xynthia - High seas in Carcavelos (Portugal)

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Quoting tornadodude:


that's because the world is ending in 2012! LOL


well according to patrap the date is off by 1 year, it's suppose to 2011.

oh shoot i wasn't suppose to say anything! lol
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1648
Quoting msgambler:
Good evening Patrap, longtime no see. Looks like you're sending me some pretty bad weather. Don't remember requesting it though. Ohh well, thanks for sharing anyway.



Hiya msgambler,lotsa wind behind that squall line as well.

Be wary of that too.
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This is March 1st and this is just lovely! Geesh!

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Quoting Skepticall:


I beg to differ.

February, 2010, was the first month since 2007 with sunspots every day according to Spaceweather.com for February 27. A quick check of February 28 confirms the streak. So far there have been only 2 spot-free days in 2010. By comparison there were 260 spot-free days in 2009, and there have been 772 spot-free days since 2004. What this means is that one of the quietest periods of solar activity in recent history may be coming to an end.


YEPPERS......as one might say without critizing in one person, "IT'S THE SUN STUPID"!
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
101. Tampa, what's the link to that global ensemble forecast, the first one you have there? It's amazing how far south that one is bringing snow.


You can click on the link by entering here and scrolling down to that site.
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Quoting Levi32:


Again, period of cold PDO/AMO versus recent period of warm PDO/AMO. Which period do you think is gonna be warmer? It's a no-brainer.

What percentage of global warming is due to human causes vs. natural causes?

Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused cooling, and so the warming there has been … is caused by a combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of ~0.5 deg C, I’d say somewhere between 80 to 120% of the warming. Slightly larger range if you want a large range for the internal stuff.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/01/accuweather%E2%80%99s-joe-bastardi-admits-earth-continues-war mest-winter-since-satellite-measurements-started-and-feb-should-be-warmest-on-record/#comments
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201. Skyepony (Mod)
As of 2-27-10 we are globally 1ºF warmer than that day last year.

Looks like Feb was easily hottest Feb globally as well.

'09 start included most of that one month short of a La Nina event & that was no normal sunspot minimum but one of the top deepest longest since the 17th century lasting nearly 2 years. It shouldn't have been so warm..
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Lots of internal server areas for local forecasts.. trouble with updates?
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

NASA explains the recent record temperatures.


Again, period of cold PDO/AMO versus recent period of warm PDO/AMO. Which period do you think is gonna be warmer? It's a no-brainer.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661

NASA explains the recent record temperatures.
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Good evening all. I have analyzed the latest satellite passes of the GOM and am noticing the low over LA beginning to deepen. The NWS offices are anticipating more deepening overnight, and a a strong squall line should begin to affect the Nature Coast just after midnight. An area of high cape is moving east ahead of the low and should allow for the squall line to strengthen into the early morning hours as it crosses Tampa and moves east across the state.

NWS Melbourne is expecting the instability to remain high and the squall line to stay intact as it moves off into the Atl. Winds all across the peninsula tonight will increase ahead of the front gusting to 40 mph.

A tornado watch will likely be issued around midnight for central Florida.

HWOs out of Ruskin and Melbourne are advising citizens to sleep with weather radios on.

If any of you are awake as the line passes grab some good pics. Have a good night.
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Good evening Patrap, longtime no see. Looks like you're sending me some pretty bad weather. Don't remember requesting it though. Ohh well, thanks for sharing anyway.
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195. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER SARAH (11F)
9:00 AM FST March 2, 2010
=====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Sarah (1003 hPa) located at 17.2S 161.3W is reported as moving slowly. Position FAIR based on GOES infrared/visible imagery with animation. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Exposed low level circulation center lies to the west of deep convection. Outflow good to the east of the system but restricted elsewhere. System lies along surface trough in a moderately sheared environment. Organization poor. Global models are showing slow movement of 11F without any further development.

POTENTIAL FOR TD11F TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
413 PM CST Monday Mar 1 2010


Short term...
weather effects from strong upper system and surface low
approaching the southeast Louisiana coast look to be the same as
earlier indicated. After hearing a couple small hail reports
earlier...added small hail and locally heavy rain to the weather
grids this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts should average
one to one and one half inches through Tuesday morning.


Very tight pressure gradient and strong downward velocities with
the middle level trough passage and west side of the surface low will
produce windy conditions near the tidal lakes and the coast after
midnight tonight with breezy and rainy conditions before midnight.
Issued a Wind Advisory valid from 9 PM tonight to 10 am on Tuesday
for about the southeast half of the area.


The low will move rapidly east and northeast across the northeast
Gulf of Mexico and across the South Atlantic coast late tonight
into Tuesday as the strong upper trough swings across the
southeast states towards the Atlantic coast. Rain will end Tuesday
morning...but it will remain cloudy and brisk Tuesday...then
partial clearing Tuesday night will cause low temperatures to drop
into the lower to middle 30s for lows.


Long term...
weather will be fair for a long duration from Wednesday through
the weekend. Secondary disturbances on the back side of a resident
middle/upper trough over the eastern states will allow reinforcements
of cool air to move into the Gulf Coast area Wednesday into
Thursday...keep temperatures much below the seasonal averages.
Friday into the weekend...a middle level ridge will build over the
forecast area as the surface high pressure slowly moves east
across the southeast states. Moderating temperatures and continued
mostly clear skies will create very pleasant conditions with
temperatures returning to near seasonal norms Saturday afternoon
into Sunday. There is a chance the next western system could move
close enough for a slight chance of rain by next Monday or
Monday night. 22/dew point
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

This map shows the 10-year average (2000-2009) temperature anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The largest temperature increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/


Great job by NASA picking a period from a cold PDO and AMO to compare to last decade which was in the end of a warm PDO and the middle of a warm AMO. Yeah that's really balanced and objective.... Warm oceans minus Cold oceans = Warm temperature anomalies! Good job!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
A good call from the NWS


Wind Advisory

Statement as of 5:45 PM CST on March 01, 2010

... Wind Advisory now in effect until 10 am CST Tuesday...

The Wind Advisory is now in effect until 10 am CST Tuesday.

A deepening surface low will lead to strong winds over southeast
Louisiana as well as southwest and coastal Mississippi. Sustained
winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 mph are expected tonight and
will persist through mid morning Tuesday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 25 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles and on elevated roadways.
Use extra caution.

Additionally... these winds will be strong enough to down some
tree limbs. Loose household objects such as trash cans and patio
furniture will also be blown over. These items should be secured
in order to limit the potential for damage.
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The Texas ULL is tight and the wind is Howling here Uptown NOLA,way behind that Surface Low that just plowed thru
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This map shows the 10-year average (2000-2009) temperature anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The largest temperature increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
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Dat's one big ol Circ still hanging round skyepony




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186. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting Skepticall:


Yup lots of cool biased stations out there.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


LOL!

Please tell me where that is from I love that!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
"In 2009, it was clear that even the deepest solar minimum in the period of satellite data hasn't stopped global warming from continuing,"

Hmm maybe because of the El Nino....according to the same article, the oceans have twice the effect on global temperatures than the sun, so maybe, just maybe, the El Nino offset and overcame any effect the solar minimum had in 2009. Wonder if anyone thought of that? Obviously common sense like that should be avoided in professional circles...

Oh and by the way...there's a lag, as someone mentioned above, between the sun and its effect on global temperatures. So we really don't know if the full effect of this particular minimum has come or gone yet. And after all it's just one 11-year solar cycle minimum....large-scale climate variations are caused more by large-scale fluctuations in the sunspot count, not so much during the normal 11-year cycles of up and down.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
179, read, to find out that the temps have a cool bias.

Watts not to love: New study finds the poor weather stations tend to have a slight COOL bias, not a warm one
Analysis of actual U.S. data disagrees with Anthony Watts' primary conclusion.


My guest blogger today is one of the best meteorologists around, Dr. Jeff Masters, former Hurricane Hunter and now Director of Meteorology for the Weather Underground. There’s so much damn stuff to blog on, I didn’t get around to the amazing new study that, as DotEarth’s Andy Revkin put it, “throws cold water on the allegation that bad weather stations have amplified America’s warming trend” — allegations made by former TV weatherman Anthony Watts who runs the anti-science website WattsUpWithThat.
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The ‘Climate Change Debate’ Is Science Versus Snake Oil

These Groups Say The Danger Of Manmade Global Warming Is A . . .

FRAUD
American Petroleum Institute
US Chamber of Commerce
National Association of Manufacturers
Competitive Enterprise Institute
Industrial Minerals Association
National Cattlemen’s Beef Association
Great Northern Project Development
Rosebud Mining
Massey Energy
Alpha Natural Resources
Southeastern Legal Foundation
Georgia Agribusiness Council
Georgia Motor Trucking Association
Corn Refiners Association
National Association of Home Builders
National Oilseed Processors Association
National Petrochemical and Refiners Association
Western States Petroleum Association

FACT

U.S. Agency for International Development
United States Department of Agriculture
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
National Institute of Standards and Technology
United States Department of Defense
United States Department of Energy
National Institutes of Health
United States Department of State
United States Department of Transportation
U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Aeronautics & Space Administration
National Science Foundation
Smithsonian Institution
International Arctic Science Committee
Arctic Council
African Academy of Sciences
Australian Academy of Sciences
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts
Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias
Cameroon Academy of Sciences
Royal Society of Canada
Caribbean Academy of Sciences
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Académie des Sciences, France
Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina of Germany
Indonesian Academy of Sciences
Royal Irish Academy
Accademia nazionale delle scienze of Italy
Indian National Science Academy
Science Council of Japan
Kenya National Academy of Sciences
Madagascar’s National Academy of Arts, Letters and Sciences
Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
Nigerian Academy of Sciences
Royal Society of New Zealand
Polish Academy of Sciences
Russian Academy of Sciences
l’Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
Academy of Science of South Africa
Sudan Academy of Sciences
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Tanzania Academy of Sciences
Turkish Academy of Sciences
Uganda National Academy of Sciences
The Royal Society of the United Kingdom
National Academy of Sciences, United States
Zambia Academy of Sciences
Zimbabwe Academy of Science
American Academy of Pediatrics
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians
American Astronomical Society
American Chemical Society
American College of Preventive Medicine
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
American Medical Association
American Meteorological Society
American Physical Society
American Public Health Association
American Quaternary Association
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Society of Agronomy
American Society for Microbiology
American Society of Plant Biologists
American Statistical Association
Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
Botanical Society of America
Crop Science Society of America
Ecological Society of America
Federation of American Scientists
Geological Society of America
National Association of Geoscience Teachers
Natural Science Collections Alliance
Organization of Biological Field Stations
Society of American Foresters
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Society of Systematic Biologists
Soil Science Society of America
Australian Coral Reef Society
Australian Medical Association
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Engineers Australia
Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies
Geological Society of Australia
British Antarctic Survey
Institute of Biology, UK
Royal Meteorological Society, UK
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
European Federation of Geologists
European Geosciences Union
European Physical Society
European Science Foundation
International Association for Great Lakes Research
International Union for Quaternary Research
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
World Federation of Public Health Associations
World Health Organization
World Meteorological Organization
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha I drive a 1992 Honda Accord

it has 268,000 + miles. New tires, replaced a couple of motor mounts. Now replacing the transmission. I imagine i will get another 100,000 out of it.

and yes, for right now it is the chasing vehicle, looking at some vans as well tho


We have a 2005 Toyota Highlander (cringe) that has carried us faithfully all over CONUS and through western Canada and Alaska. Sure hope we can approach your Honda mileage. (Does rapid acceleration give you better mileage? We may find out.)
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so, can someone reference me to the gw section in Jeff's update today? thanks
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Decoding the Temperature Record

Climate scientists agree that rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap incoming heat near the surface of the Earth and are the key factors causing the rise in temperatures since 1880, but these gases are not the only factors that can impact global temperatures.

Three others key factors — including changes in the Sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperature in the tropics, and changes in aerosol levels — can also cause slight increases or decreases in the planet's temperature. Overall, the evidence suggests that these effects are not enough to account for the global warming observed since 1880.

El Niño and La Niña are prime examples of how the oceans can affect global temperatures. They describe abnormally warm or cool sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific that are caused by changing ocean currents.

Global temperatures tend to decrease in the wake of La Niña, which occurs when upwelling cold water off the coast of Peru spreads westward in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña moderates the impact of greenhouse-gas driven warming, lingered during the early months of 2009 and gave way to the beginning of an El Niño phase in October that's expected to continue in 2010.

An especially powerful El Niño cycle in 1998 is thought to have contributed to the unusually high temperatures that year, and Hansen's group estimates that there's a good chance 2010 will be the warmest year on record if the current El Niño persists. At most, scientists estimate that El Niño and La Niña can cause global temperatures to deviate by about 0.2°C (0.36°F).

Warmer surface temperatures also tend to occur during particularly active parts of the solar cycle, known as solar maximums, while slightly cooler temperatures occur during lulls in activity, called minimums.

A deep solar minimum has made sunspots a rarity in the last few years. Such lulls in solar activity, which can cause the total amount of energy given off by the Sun to decrease by about a tenth of a percent, typically spur surface temperature to dip slightly. Overall, solar minimums and maximums are thought to produce no more than 0.1°C (0.18°F) of cooling or warming.

"In 2009, it was clear that even the deepest solar minimum in the period of satellite data hasn't stopped global warming from continuing," said Hansen.

Small particles in the atmosphere called aerosols can also affect the climate. Volcanoes are powerful sources of sulfate aerosols that counteract global warming by reflecting incoming solar radiation back into space. In the past, large eruptions at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines and El Chichón in Mexico have caused global dips in surface temperature of as much as 0.3°C (0.54°F). But volcanic eruptions in 2009 have not had a significant impact.

Meanwhile, other types of aerosols, often produced by burning fossil fuels, can change surface temperatures by either reflecting or absorbing incoming sunlight. Hansen's group estimates that aerosols probably counteract about half of the warming produced by man-made greenhouse gases, but he cautions that better measurements of these elusive particles are needed.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Wow the temperature spike in sat data - SCARY.

27th, 1.03 warmer than last years february.

Not here in Central Florida.....


Those are global temperatures. Florida and the gom states have lower temps from the historic NAO.


I understand that. I simply made a comment that while the globe was above normal, it was considerably below normal here in Central FL.
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2009: Second Warmest Year on Record; End of Warmest Decade

Jan. 21, 2010

2009 was tied for the second warmest year in the modern record, a new NASA analysis of global surface temperature shows. The analysis, conducted by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, also shows that in the Southern Hemisphere, 2009 was the warmest year since modern records began in 1880.

10-year average global temperature index
This map shows the 10-year average (2000-2009) temperature anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The largest temperature increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)
+ Larger view or PDF
+ View related video (Windows Media)

graph of the land/ocean temperature index
Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earth's surface temperatures have increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highest levels ever recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are more apparent when temperatures are averaged over a five year period. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)
+ Larger view

graph comparing hemispheric temperatures
As seen by the blue point farthest to the right on this graph, 2009 was the warmest year on record in the Southern Hemisphere. (Image credit: NASA/GISS)
+ Larger view

Although 2008 was the coolest year of the decade, due to strong cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2009 saw a return to near-record global temperatures. The past year was only a fraction of a degree cooler than 2005, the warmest year on record, and tied with a cluster of other years — 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007 1998 and 2007 — as the second warmest year since recordkeeping began.

"There's always an interest in the annual temperature numbers and on a given year's ranking, but usually that misses the point," said James Hansen, the director of GISS. "There's substantial year-to-year variability of global temperature caused by the tropical El Niño-La Niña cycle. But when we average temperature over five or ten years to minimize that variability, we find that global warming is continuing unabated."

January 2000 to December 2009 was the warmest decade on record. Throughout the last three decades, the GISS surface temperature record shows an upward trend of about 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. Since 1880, the year that modern scientific instrumentation became available to monitor temperatures precisely, a clear warming trend is present, though there was a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s.

The near-record temperatures of 2009 occurred despite an unseasonably cool December in much of North America. High air pressures in the Arctic decreased the east-west flow of the jet stream, while also increasing its tendency to blow from north to south and draw cold air southward from the Arctic. This resulted in an unusual effect that caused frigid air from the Arctic to rush into North America and warmer mid-latitude air to shift toward the north.

"Of course, the contiguous 48 states cover only 1.5 percent of the world area, so the U.S. temperature does not affect the global temperature much,' said Hansen.

In total, average global temperatures have increased by about 0.8°C (1.5°F) since 1880.

"That's the important number to keep in mind," said Gavin Schmidt, another GISS climatologist. "In contrast, the difference between, say, the second and sixth warmest years is trivial since the known uncertainty — or noise — in the temperature measurement is larger than some of the differences between the warmest years."
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Good Evening. While models have been indiating that the Gulf Low was going enter the Northern Gulf at some point over the past few days, seems to me, from looking at the Satt Loops, that the low is starting to track almost due east and staying on the Northern edge of the guidance....Beginning to wonder how much of an impact it will have on Central Florida in terms of possible severe weather if it never reaches the Gulf.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Does anyone else smell that?


Gettin mighty ripe...
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If you look back, Astro, I corrected.

In looking at it, it does appear to be the GISS data set. I was reading the red line iso the blue points.

But still, that data (GISS)... going out to 2009 only shows +0.43C to +0.45C relative to 1900.

I will be doing a full blog entry on exactly what I did. Most should be able to duplicate and it will be clear.

In any case, the correction is only 0.094. The fourth figure shows it without the correction, simply same base period.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Responding to that post, the lag time between sunspots and global temperatures is about 2.2 years.Link So the recent solar activity should show up in global temperatures around early 2012, but going from sharp minimum to maximum should only cause a net increase of about 0.1C, and per my prediction based on feedback contributions and intensity about 0.2C. However, this simply cannot explain the recent 0.43C temperature increase in one month, considering that the timing is off. Since most of the temperature increase this year has actually been over the oceans, this suggests that something in the global ocean circulation has "flipped".Link Also, the website you cited is based on American political opinion, which is far from science.


Well obviously the oceans have warmed a great deal since last year due to this quite potent El Nino. This temperature spike was expected, and it doesn't mean something in the ocean has "flipped", this isn't an unheard of warming spike...it's still smaller than the 1998 spike due to the '97-98 El Nino. It just shows us the strong influence that ocean temperatures have on the atmosphere. There's nothing crazy going on here.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Some flood news from past hours ...

Heavy Rains Floods Southern Haiti

Flood fears grow as rain saturates southern Queensland
Large parts of Queensland are bracing for floods today as heavy rain continues over much of the state.

A monsoon low moved into south-west Queensland yesterday bringing record falls to many usually parched areas of the state.

Quilpie and Charleville have had more than 140 millimetres since 9am AEST yesterday and in Birdsville there has been record rain with nearly 200 millimetres in the last two days.

The monsoon low is combining with another system off the south-east coast that is bringing driving rain from the Sunshine Coast to the Gold Coast.

That has brought falls of more than 150 millimetres in some areas, with predictions of as much again today.

Coal mine flood traps 31 people in northern China

Sarkozy seeks answers over French flood damage

Flood warnings in force throughout Britain
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


im coming with lol


lol come to Indiana
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


haha I drive a 1992 Honda Accord

it has 268,000 + miles. New tires, replaced a couple of motor mounts. Now replacing the transmission. I imagine i will get another 100,000 out of it.

and yes, for right now it is the chasing vehicle, looking at some vans as well tho


im coming with lol
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I agree Levi, and thanks. I only like Sat myself.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
137: Without proper attribution, casual readers might think you wrote that.


Responding to that post, the lag time between sunspots and global temperatures is about 2.2 years.Link So the recent solar activity should show up in global temperatures around early 2012, but going from sharp minimum to maximum should only cause a net increase of about 0.1C, and per my prediction based on feedback contributions and intensity about 0.2C. However, this simply cannot explain the recent 0.43C temperature increase in one month, considering that the timing is off. Since most of the temperature increase this year has actually been over the oceans, this suggests that something in the global ocean circulation has "flipped".Link Also, the website you cited is based on American political opinion, which is far from science.

Quoting jrweatherman:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Wow the temperature spike in sat data - SCARY.

27th, 1.03 warmer than last years february.


Not here in Central Florida.....
Quoting Seastep:
In case anyone missed my updated blog correcting that graph Astro is showing.

Seeing as that graph has 1900 at -0.2C, that would make the satellite based 2000 point being at approx -0.15C on that graph.

What's the source on that, btw, astro? Even the raw GISS temps only show 0.2C relative to that graph showing 0.4C.

Correction, in looking again 1900 is at about -0.17C, so add 0.03C to the other numbers.

Still, 0.4C vs. -0.12C. Somethings up with that graph.


Source is here: Link and here: Link. If 1900 is -0.2C, then according to your graphs 2000 should be anywhere from 0.05C to 0.4C. Also, I'm not sure about the normalization process. I think that raw data is more accurate, as the "normalization" produced a huge flatlining that didn't exist before. Is this the "trick" in "hide the increase"? :P
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Wow! What kind of car do you have? We need one of those. (We do a lot of traveling and my husband won't fly.) Do you think you'll get another 200K+ miles out of it with a 'new' transmission?

Now - this is your Michigan gram speaking - is this the car you'll be using for chasing tornadoes? I sure hope it is fully loaded with air bags. Sounds exciting but take care.


haha I drive a 1992 Honda Accord

it has 268,000 + miles. New tires, replaced a couple of motor mounts. Now replacing the transmission. I imagine i will get another 100,000 out of it.

and yes, for right now it is the chasing vehicle, looking at some vans as well tho
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Seastep:


And, Astro, we are at +0.25C as of 2009 since 1900, not +1.32C. Trend is only at +0.15C 1880-2009. Even the Raw GISS says only +0.45C.

Any way you look at it we're not +1.32C.


Good job on the graphs, but I don't put much stock in any graph that goes back before accurate global satellite temperature measurements began in 1979. There's too much controversy (your new adjusted graphs are a testament to that) on the accuracy of the data, and the reality is that reconstructed data is just too fuzzy and prone to manipulation. I am greatly looking forward to the next 30 years as our new technology allows us to observe the climate during the first completely-observed cold PDO and AMO cycles.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


dude, im predicting the temps to rise as we head into the may and june months.... just a prediction but global warming will happen trust me...


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


dude, im predicting the temps to rise as we head into the may and june months.... just a prediction but global warming will happen trust me...


You're right that the U.S. will warm during May and June, and the rest of this summer will be warm world-wide due to the El Nino this winter which has warmed the atmosphere. Next winter will be colder globally due to the coming La Nina. Let us all watch and learn.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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