Winter Storm Xynthia kills 62 in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:21 PM GMT on March 01, 2010

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Devastating Winter Storm Xynthia ripped a swath of destruction through Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, and Germany over the weekend, killing at least 62 people. It was Europe's 5th deadliest winter storm of the past 60 years. Hardest hit was France, where at least 51 died. The storm also caused six deaths in Germany, including a 2-year-old boy blown into a river and drowned. Three people were dead in Spain, and Belgium, Portugal, and England had one fatality each. At least ten people are still missing. Most of the deaths in France occurred when a powerful storm surge topped by battering waves up to 25 feet high, hitting at high tide, smashed though the sea wall off the coastal town of L'Aiguillon-sur-Mer. A mobile home park built close to the sea wall was particularly hard-hit. The sea wall was several hundred years old, built in the time of Napoleon, and locating a mobile home park so close to it showed poor coastal development practices, critics said. The storm cut power to more than 1 million homes in France, and up to 1 million customers in Portugal also lost power. A few wind peak wind gusts measured during the storm:

Portugal
Pampilhosa da Serra 147 km/h (91 mph)
Penhas Douradas 126.1 km/h (78 mph)
Porto (Airport LPPR) 113km/h (70 mph)

Spain
Lardeira: 196.1 km/h (122 mph)
Serra do Eixe: 157 km/h (98 mph)
Campus de Vigo: 146.9 km/h (92 mph)
Gandara: 145.8 km/h (91 mph)

France
Eiffel Tower, Paris: 175 km/h (106 mph)
Saint-Clement of the Whales: 159km/h (99 mph)
Charente-Maritime: 161km/h (100 mph)

A Personal Weather Station in Les Portes-en-Re recorded sustained winds of 143 km/h (89 mph) gusting to 180 km/h (112 mph) before losing power at the height of the storm. According to Meteo France, the maximum recorded gust from Xynthia for elevations lower than 1200m was 160 km/h along the coast and 120 km/h inland. In 1999, Winter Storm Lothar brought gusts of almost 200 km/h to coastal areas and up to 160 km/h in the interior at these lower elevations.


Figure 1. Six-hour animation of the surface winds as Winter Storm Xynthia crossed the Bay of Biscay and smashed into France.

Destructive European storms of the past 60 years:
2010: Winter Storm Xynthia of February 27, 2010 killed 51 people in France, Spain, and neighboring countries, and did $2 - $4 billion in damage. Lowest pressure: 967 mb.

Winter Storm Klaus hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, 2009, and was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Minimum pressure: 967 mb.

Kyrill (January 18, 2007) killed at least 45, with Germany suffering the most fatalities (13). Minimum pressure: 964 mb.

Back-to-back winter storms Lothar and Martin December 26-28, 1999) killed 140 people, 88 of the victims in France. Minimum pressure: 961 mb (Lothar), 965 mb (Martin).

The Burns' Day Storm of 1990 killed 97, mostly in England. Minimum pressure: 949 mb.

The Great Storm of 1987 was Europe's "storm of the century". It killed 22 people in England and France. Minimum pressure: 953 mb.

The North Sea Flood of 1962 killed 318 people--315 of them in Hamburg, Germany.

The North Sea Flood of 1953 killed 2,000 people in the Netherlands and England.

Xynthia's warm air surge sets records
One reason Xynthia became so powerful is that it formed very far south, where it was able to tap into an airmass that was unusually warm and moist. Satellite measurements (Figure 2) showed a plume of high total precipitable water (the amount of precipitation one can produce by condensing all the water vapor from the surface to the top of the atmosphere), about 300% above average, flowing from southwest to northeast along Xynthia's cold front. Enhancing the amount of moisture was the presence of very warm sea surface temperatures 1°C above average along this plume. As this extra moisture flowed into the storm, the moisture condensed into rain, releasing the "latent heat" stored up in the water vapor (the extra energy that was originally used to evaporate the water into water vapor). This latent heat further intensified Xynthia. The storm's central pressure fell to 966 mb at the storm's peak intensity, reached at 18 GMT Saturday after it passed over Spain's northwest corner.

As warm, tropical air surged northeastwards in advance of Xynthia's cold front, it set several all-time high temperature records for the month of February. Melilla, Spain hit 34°C (93°F) at 3pm local time on the 27th, beating previous highest February temperature of 30.6°C, set in 1979. The temperature surged upwards a remarkable 9.1°C (16°F) in one hour as Xynthia's warm front passed through. Record February warmth was also observed in the Canary Islands as Xynthia's warm front passed though.


Figure 2. Satellite measurements show a region of high total precipitable water (the amount of precipitation one can produce by condensing all the water vapor from the surface to the top of the atmosphere) up to 300% above average, flowing from southwest to northeast along Xynthia's cold front. Enhancing the amount of moisture was the presence of very warm sea surface temperatures along this plume, about 1°C above average. If this pool of very warm water is still around in July, it could lead to an earlier than average start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS, and National Hurricane Center.

Next storm
For the the U.S., the next winter storm of note is a moderately strong low pressure system currently over Texas that is expected to move quickly eastwards today and Tuesday. The storm should bring an inch or so of snow to Atlanta and northeast Alabama, and 2 - 4" to the nearby mountains of South and North Carolina, including Charlotte. After that, the models show a long break from winter storm activity for the Eastern U.S. Beginning Sunday, it looks like it will be the Midwest's turn, when a powerful winter storm will drop out of the Rockies, then move across the northern tier of Midwestern states early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Xynthia - High seas in Carcavelos (Portugal) (rozzopt)
High seas an waves from storm Synthia, with storm-surge taking over the entire beach, and "attacking" bars usually 30meters away from the sea.
Xynthia - High seas in Carcavelos (Portugal)

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Quoting Grothar:


Dan, if you are wearing red ruby slippers right now, it may be the last time we talk!!

Please say it isn't so Dan! LOL


Oh MAN, did I say that out loud? Mardi Gras is over then? Back to the boots I guess!
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Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL red shoes, heel click, all together, There's no place like home, there's no place like home...


And Conan has grown a beard...like Al did after the hanging chads and Supreme Court decision -- I'm starting to see a pattern here.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL red shoes, heel click, all together, There's no place like home, there's no place like home...


Dan, if you are wearing red ruby slippers right now, it may be the last time we talk!!

Please say it isn't so Dan! LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Quoting Grothar:


Awake!!


Greetings, Grothar!

I had to take a day's Meteorological Spring break after the Hawaii and left-coast tsunami scare! Somehow it slipped by me in my errant youth that the "Mom" job description means worrying forever...and ever...
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


LOL -- Jay Leno started back at 11:35 by doing a "Wizard of Oz" bit -- he's glad to be back at home after being in a strange place!



LOL red shoes, heel click, all together, There's no place like home, there's no place like home...
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


LOL -- Jay Leno started back at 11:35 by doing a "Wizard of Oz" bit -- he's glad to be back at home after being in a strange place!



Awake!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Here we go the transition to spring with a Severe Weather outbreak that the GFS has been showing now for weeks.
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SA records hotter summer

Posted March 2, 2010 13:45:00

Temperatures across most of South Australia this summer were up to 2.5 degrees warmer than average.

The weather bureau says temperatures were on average about 1.5 to 2.5 degrees warmer than average over the past three months.

A senior climatologist with the bureau, Darren Ray, says most regions except for the far north-east of the state recorded above average temperatures.

"It started off relatively mildly in December but for summer as a whole we had a fairly warm January and February, people might remember that heatwave event that we had early mid-January," he said.

Mr Ray says rainfall was about average over summer except for the far north where recent torrential rain bumped it above the median rainfall.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/02/2834299.htm?site=southeastsa§ion=news
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Think I'll just sit here and continue watching Anthony Bordain. :)


LOL -- Jay Leno started back at 11:35 by doing a "Wizard of Oz" bit -- he's glad to be back at home after being in a strange place!

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
ok I'm out for the night.... Everyone needs to play nice..... Although I hate too cause we just had another gust of 32MPH wind here, from what my Weather center had read..... and stormsurge I am surprised we have not lost power yet too..... Heck I think we lose power if it blows in MO....

Have a Great Nite....

Taco :0)
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, from memory, but if they are using the NCEP Decoder, they would have to use two different Fortran arrays. Correct? In order to keep the two types of data in order, what would they use? They would have to return data in Celcius and Farenheit, therefore the mnemonic used would be TEMPC. Just follow that logic.

Thanks!

G'Nite, all.
Stay civil...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1041 PM EST MON MAR 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN...A LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS. IF THEY DO OCCUR...THEY WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME RATHER STRONG AND LONGER TRACKED.
PLEASE BE ADVISED...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED BEFORE SUNRISE.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


200mb upper air data
Whats the orange say, i cant read it!
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The Gulf system is racing off to the east will probably be here before rush hour, with a squall line that might warrant a severe t-storm or tornado watches, I guess leave work early as we all know how fast the rains fall in Florida. Those kids are going to get soaked waiting for their busses.
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Last month the driest Feb in 140 years
05:55 AM Mar 02, 2010
SINGAPORE - A new record has been set: February was the driest month ever for Singapore in 140 years.

According to the National Environment Agency (NEA), just 6.3mm of rain fell, the least in a single month since records began to be kept in 1869.

February also saw the hottest day so far, with the mercury hitting 35°C last Friday.

Those hoping for cool reprieve may have to wait. Notwithstanding passing showers in some areas yesterday, the first half of this month is expected to be mainly dry, with rainfall below average for most parts of the island, said the NEA.

Temperatures from today until Thursday are expected to reach 34°C.

The NEA said February is traditionally one of the driest months. Historically, the driest Februaries prior to this were in 1968 and 2005, when 8.4 mm of rain fell.

But the months ahead promise an extended heatwave.

March and April generally mark the drier tail-end of the of the north-east monsoon season, noted climate researcher Matthias Roth of the National University of Singapore.

And with the El Nino effect expected to last till May, Associate Professor Roth said the net effect would be "relatively dry, warm conditions for the coming couple of months".

For now, Singaporeans say they are beating the heat by downing cold drinks, swimming more, dressing lighter and turning on the air-conditioner.

http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC100302-0000097/Last-month-the-driest-Feb-in-140-years
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200mb upper air data
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393. VTG
Its coming in bursts now and seems to be slacking off at times. I havent heard that steady of wind power in some time!

The system seems to be stronger here than what the models were showing, although it may have been a little further north than what they were expecting.
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From the 7 PM NHC DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N93W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N94W TO 20N95W.
A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO 30N86W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF 22N WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA.
WRAP AROUND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 94W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND ALSO PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF NW TO N WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
Quoting doabarrelroll:
'

It does not have winds of tropical strom strength so NO THEY DONT
Being sarcastic. Sheesh
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Think I'll just sit here and continue watching Anthony Bordain. :)
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Quoting stormsurge39:
NHC needs to name this storm!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
similar but yet no just a strong ULL with a strong spin to it strong ull thats it winds similar to TD force but only in gusts
Thanks
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Keeper is this low similar to the strength of a Tropical depression or storm because it sure does look and sound like one?
similar but yet no just a strong ULL with a strong spin to it
Quoting stormsurge39:
Keeper is this low similar to the strength of a Tropical depression or storm because it sure does look and sound like one?
strong ull thats it winds similar to TD force but only in gusts
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NHC needs to name this storm!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

I am certain the ARGOS buoys are in FM-18...haven't confirmed that these conform to the standard, yet. If you have something making you so certain, do please, share?


Well, from memory, but if they are using the NCEP Decoder, they would have to use two different Fortran arrays. Correct? In order to keep the two types of data in order, what would they use? They would have to return data in Celcius and Farenheit, therefore the mnemonic used would be TEMPC. Just follow that logic.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
If thats a prequei to hurricane season---- Im leaving! LOL
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Quoting Chicklit:
Lindzen hypothesizes that global warming may lead to global cooling. Puhleese.
Yes if we spew enough CO2 into the atmosphere we will cool the planet. I think Dr. Masters covered that bogus theory in a blog about a month or two ago.

Lindzen debunked again: New scientific study finds his paper downplaying dangers of human-caused warming is “seriously in error”
Trenberth: The flaws in Lindzen-Choi paper "have all the appearance of the authors having contrived to get the answer they got."


Consistently being wrong and consistently producing one-sided analyses that are quickly debunked in the literature should lead scientific journals and the entire scientific community (and possibly the media) to start ignoring your work.

But when you are one of the last remaining “serious” professional scientists spreading global warming disinformation who retains a (nano)ounce of credibility because you are associated with a major university — M.I.T. — and your name is Richard Lindzen, apparently you can just keep publishing and repeating the same crap over and over and over again.

It’s not just that Lindzen’s popular disinformation tracts have been widely debunked — see RealClimate here. Or that his one remaining big idea — that clouds are negative feedback — has been refuted in the literature [see Science: “Clouds Appear to Be Big, Bad Player in Global Warming,”an amplifying feedback (sorry Lindzen and fellow deniers)]. That idea of course meant ignored the myriad observations that climate impacts are occurring faster, not slower, than the models had predicted, and that therefore the multiple strong amplifying feedbacks are overwhelming whatever few week negative feedbacks occur in the climate system — see Study: Water-vapor feedback is “strong and positive,” so we face “warming of several degrees Celsius” (and below).

At the Heartland conference of climate-change disinformers last year, Lindzen went from disinformation to defamation as he smeared the reputation of one of the greatest living climate scientists, Wallace Broecker (see “Shame on Richard Lindzen, MIT’s uber-hypocritical anti-scientific scientist“).

But still his shoddy work manages to make it through the peer review process of a few journals, and the antiscience crowd eat it up and regurgitates it over the blogosphere like a toddler with H1N1. His latest nonsense is about to be thoroughly eviscerated in the literature, and RealClimate his multiple posts on how flawed Lindzen’s analysis was and how the peer review process failed. You should start with “Lindzen and Choi Unraveled” by climate scientists John Fasullo, Kevin Trenberth and Chris O’Dell:

A recent paper by Lindzen and Choi in GRL (2009) (LC09) purported to demonstrate that climate had a strong negative feedback and that climate models are quite wrong in their relationships between changes in surface temperature and corresponding changes in outgoing radiation escaping to space. This publication has been subject to a considerable amount of hype, for instance apparently “[LC09] has absolutely, convincingly, and irrefutably proven the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming to be completely false.” and “we now know that the effect of CO2 on temperature is small, we know why it is small, and we know that it is having very little effect on the climate”. Not surprisingly, LC09 has also been highly publicized in various contrarian circles.

Our initial reading of their article had us independently asking, how we could have missed such explicit evidence of the cloud feedback as shown in LC09? Why would such a significant finding have gone undiscovered when these feedbacks are widely studied and recognised as central to the projections of climate change? We discovered these common concerns at a meeting last year and then teamed up to address these questions.

With the hype surrounding the manuscript, one would think that the article provides a sound, rock solid basis for a reduced climate sensitivity. However, our examination of the study’s methods demonstrates that this is not the case. In an article in press (Trenberth et al. 2010 (sub. requ.), hereafter TFOW), we show that LC09 is gravely flawed and its results are wrong on multiple fronts. These are the major issues we found:

The LC09 results are not robust….

LC09 misinterpret air-sea interactions in the tropics….

More robust methods show no discrepancies between models and observations….

LC09 have compared observations to models prescribed with incomplete forcings….

LC09 incorrectly compute the climate sensitivity.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/01/11/science-lindzen-debunked-again-positive-negative-feedbacks-cl ouds-tropics/

LOL
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Quoting VTG:
Its going to get worse for you later. It started out as windy here and then accuweather read a gust at 42mph at 9:45pm!

Pensacola airport recorded a 47mph gust around the same time. Rainfall is now over 3 inches!
Its coming in bursts now and seems to be slacking off at times. I havent heard that steady of wind power in some time!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nothing wrong with debate good info learned lots but sometimes it just becomes too much but its all good lots of good people here even if they are for or against GW


I know what you mean Keeper; one reason I have stayed off much of the time. It just gets a little sickening sometimes. I was being a little sarcastic back there. You probably didn't notice because as you know, I am very rarely sarcastic. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Quoting Grothar:


Are you sure about that? Really? I would check again if I were you.

I am certain the ARGOS buoys are in FM-18...haven't confirmed that these conform to the standard, yet. If you have something making you so certain, do please, share?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Lindzen hypothesizes that global warming may lead to global cooling. Puhleese.
Yes if we spew enough CO2 into the atmosphere we will cool the planet. I think Dr. Masters covered that bogus theory in a blog about a month or two ago.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
Quoting Chicklit:
D'Aleo's fundamental premise is that although there is a global warming trend there is not a strong causal relationship between that trend and carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere. Instead D'Aleo contends that the global warming trend correlates more closely with other phenomena such as solar activity and ocean current oscillations.

On October 20, 2006 D'Aleo registered the domain name for ICECAP, a website challenging human-induced global warming. [2]

There you go. Got any more?
It is his opinion that...etc.
Where's the scientific basis?
Where's the peer reviewed articles?

Depends on where you look...the 3 I listed probably have a hundred peer-reviewed papers in the mainstream journals. But if you only want to see what you want to see, well, I cannot help you.

(Really, where are you getting the cherry-picked, scripted responses?)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
377. VTG
Its going to get worse for you later. It started out as windy here and then accuweather read a gust at 42mph at 9:45pm!

Pensacola airport recorded a 47mph gust around the same time. Rainfall is now over 3 inches!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

While you are now scaring me a little...it isn't put out in grib, that I know of.

The NCEP decoder for the WMO FM-18 is dcdrbu


Are you sure about that? Really? I would check again if I were you.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Quoting Chicklit:
Here's the scoop on Lindzen:
Iris hypothesis
Main article: Iris hypothesis
Lindzen hypothesized that the Earth may act like an infrared iris; increased sea surface temperature in the tropics would result in reduced cirrus clouds and thus more infrared radiation leakage from Earth's atmosphere.[7] This hypothesis suggests a negative feedback which would counter the effects of CO2 warming by lowering the climate sensitivity. Satellite data from CERES has led researchers investigating Lindzen's theory to conclude that the Iris effect would instead warm the atmosphere.[8][9]


It that all? Wiki doesn't cover him better than that? That is lame. You should look into what the dude writes.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
D'Aleo's fundamental premise is that although there is a global warming trend there is not a strong causal relationship between that trend and carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere. Instead D'Aleo contends that the global warming trend correlates more closely with other phenomena such as solar activity and ocean current oscillations.

On October 20, 2006 D'Aleo registered the domain name for ICECAP, a website challenging human-induced global warming. [2]

There you go. Got any more?
It is his opinion that...etc.
Where's the scientific basis?
Where's the peer reviewed articles?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Keeper is this low similar to the strength of a Tropical depression or storm because it sure does look and sound like one?
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Quoting Grothar:


Come on Keeper, that is what makes life interesting. If we didn't debate, we wouldn't learn or grow. Haven't you found the past few months entertaining at least?
nothing wrong with debate good info learned lots but sometimes it just becomes too much but its all good lots of good people here even if they are for or against GW
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Quoting Patrap:


Worked offshore for 3 years and well...built 3 Oil reinfires before I was 20 in the Late 70s.

Ive seen the Damage done on both Land and sea.

But I dont know if you know this,..but them coal fired Plant s your running and those Vehicles driving up and down yer Highways 24/7 365 may be polluting more than any Oil Spill ever recorded Dear.

But I'd hate to burden you with the numbers.
We gots plenty of them data types here all the time.

What you really dont want is those rigs down in Miami and off Orlando for all those tourist dollars to see.

But one can see Many from Destin and Pensacola already.

LOL




Also business owners along the beaches would lose customers if there was an oil spill. I mean who would want to swim in a pool of oil?! yuck. And I'm sure it would cause a distraction when they start working and have to place their equipment up and down the coastline. Also we always run the risk of damage to oil rigs from hurricanes that spike up the prices of gasoline. I believe it's more efficient to drill onland than offshore, not as much environmental risks and detrement to the Florida tourism industry.
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Quoting Grothar:


Didn't realize there were that many there. See the problem the Aliens had in "Independence Day" with "line of sight" problems.

I would use "-v 2" to
the dcgrib2 decoder entries on the WMO for us to see they could them into real time. That delay does not make sense. You could be on to something with this.

While you are now scaring me a little...it isn't put out in grib, that I know of.

The NCEP decoder for the WMO FM-18 is dcdrbu
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Here's John Christy:
Status and views
Christy was a lead author for the 2001 report by the IPCC[4] and the US CCSP report Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere - Understanding and Reconciling Differences.[5] Christy helped draft and signed the American Geophysical Union statement on climate change.[6]

In an interview with National Public Radio about the new American Geophysical Union (AGU) statement, he said: "It is scientifically inconceivable that after changing forests into cities, turning millions of acres into irrigated farmland, putting massive quantities of soot and dust into the air, and putting extra greenhouse gases into the air, that the natural course of climate has not changed in some way."[6]
In October 2007 Christy gave a lecture at Auburn University in which he reviewed areas of the global warming debate that he deems most significant and offered his evaluation of them.[7]

While he supports the AGU declaration and is convinced that human activities are one cause of the global warming that has been measured, Christy is "still a strong critic of scientists who make catastrophic predictions of huge increases in global temperatures and tremendous rises in sea levels."[6]

So he says yes, definitely, we are changing the planet, but not to the extent that scientists claim. Big whoop.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya know this is all becoming just to much


Too much debate, or too much information?
Action: Quote | Ignore User

too much arguing.


Come on Keeper, that is what makes life interesting. If we didn't debate, we wouldn't learn or grow. Haven't you found the past few months entertaining at least?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Ive been listening for possible tornadoes! Alabama power did thier job out here!
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Here's the scoop on Lindzen:
Iris hypothesis
Main article: Iris hypothesis
Lindzen hypothesized that the Earth may act like an infrared iris; increased sea surface temperature in the tropics would result in reduced cirrus clouds and thus more infrared radiation leakage from Earth's atmosphere.[7] This hypothesis suggests a negative feedback which would counter the effects of CO2 warming by lowering the climate sensitivity. Satellite data from CERES has led researchers investigating Lindzen's theory to conclude that the Iris effect would instead warm the atmosphere.[8][9]

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Windiest its been in a while here on the west side!
Its going to get worse for you later. It started out as windy here and then accuweather read a gust at 42mph at 9:45pm!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Doing lovely, myself. Been looking at global buoy info a little more.

You guys realize how many drifting buoys we have on the planet, yet, we see very few through our usual dissemination points? (such as NDBC...maybe 15 drifting reports, max, at any given time)

Check this out (yeah, a lot are SST only):


Wouldn't it be nice to be able to access sea level pressure from those that measure it in the path of TCs without having to delve into WMO decoding? I agree.

Only problem: Many of these report to polar orbiting satellites. They have to wait for line of sight and eventually give an update possibly up to 2 hours old. Not a continuous update like most of our moored buoys.


Didn't realize there were that many there. See the problem the Aliens had in "Independence Day" with "line of sight" problems.

I would use "-v 2" to
the dcgrib2 decoder entries on the WMO for us to see they could them into real time. That delay does not make sense. You could be on to something with this.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya know this is all becoming just to much


Too much debate, or too much information?
Action: Quote | Ignore User

too much arguing.
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Windiest its been in a while here on the west side!
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These winds remind me of a strong tropical storm! This is stronger than any storm that passed thru here in 2009 hurricane season!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.