Great earthquake rocks Chile; NYC gets 4th greatest snow ever; Xynthia batters Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:26 PM GMT on February 27, 2010

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A great earthquake with magnitude 8.8 rocked the coast of Chile at 6:34 GMT this morning, generating a potentially dangerous tsunami that is racing across the Pacific Ocean. The great quake is the 7th most powerful tremor in world history (Figure 1). Preliminary tsunami wave heights for the California coast near Santa Barbara are 2 - 2.5 feet. The wave is expected to arrive between 12:15 - 12:35 pm PST. The tsunami is expected to arrive in Hawaii between 11:05 - 11:42am HST, with a wave 8.2 feet high expected in Hilo, on the Big Island. A tsunami from the 9.5 Magnitude 1960 earthquake in Chile killed 61 people in Hilo. Today's quake was so strong, that it triggered a seiche in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, over 4,500 miles (7,000 km) away. The lake sloshed back and forth, creating a wave 0.4 - 0.51 feet on either side of the lake.


Figure 1. Wikipedia's list of strongest earthquakes of all-time.

Preliminary tsunami amplitude forecasts:

La Jolla, CA 2.3 ft
Los Angeles, CA 2.0 ft
Malibu, CA 2.6 ft
Pt. San Luis, CA 2.3 ft
Half Moon Bay, CA 2.6 ft
Crescent City, CA 1.7 ft
Morro Bay, CA 2.2 ft
Santa Monica, CA 3.3 ft
San Francisco, CA 0.7 ft
Pismo Beach, CA 4.6 ft

Hilo, HI 8.2 feet 11:5am HST
Honolulu, HI 1.6 ft 11:37am HST
Kahului, HI 7.2 ft 11:26am HST
Nawiliwili, HI 3.0 ft 11:42am HST
Haleiwa 1.6 ft
Kawaihae 2.0 ft

Port Orford, OR 0.7 ft

Moclip, WA 1.3 ft

Seward, AK 1.3 ft
Stika, AK 1.3 ft
Kodiak, AK 2.3 ft

Tofino, British Columbia 1.7 ft

Today's great quake occurred at the boundary between the Nazca and South American plates about 325 km southwest of the capital Santiago (population 5.3 million). The depth was estimated at 35 km. At least four aftershocks of magnitude 6 or higher have occurred, the largest being a 6.9 aftershock. Fortunately, the area close to the epicenter is relatively sparsely populated, but there may be heavy damage in Concepción (est. pop. 300,000) and Chillan (est. pop. 170,000), which lie 115 km and 100 km to the south of the epicenter, respectively.


Figure 2. NOAA's preliminary forecast of tsunami wave energy for today's earthquake. Image credit: NOAA Tsunami Warning Center.

New York City slammed with its 4th largest snowstorm on record
The snow from the fourth extreme snowstorm to wallop the Northeast U.S. this winter dumped a remarkable 20.9" of snow on New York City's Central Park yesterday and Thursday. This is the 4th largest snowstorm for the city in recorded history. According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park are:

26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
20.9" Feb 25-26, 2010
20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978
17.6" Feb 11-12, 1983
17.5" Feb 4-7, 1920

The storm also helped New York City set a new all-time snowfall record for the most snow ever recorded in a month--36.9". The old record was 30.5", set in March 1896. However, the old Lower Manhattan WB Station recorded 37.9" in February 1894. Yesterday's snowstorm puts New York City's snow for the 2009 - 2010 season at 51.4", making it the 11th snowiest winter since 1869. Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, lists the city's all-time seasonal snowfall record at 81.5", set in the winter of 1867 - 1868. This measurement came before official records began in Central Park, and were done be the NY Park Commissioners (see "Annual Report NY Park Commissioners", 1868, by John B. Marie). The second snowiest winter in NYC occurred during the winter of 1995 - 1996, when 75.6" fell.

Destructive Winter Storm Xynthia battering Portugal and Spain
A powerful 969 mb low pressure system named "Xynthia" is rapidly intensifying of the coast of Spain, and stands poised to deliver a devastating blow to Portugal, Spain, and France today and tomorrow as it powers through Europe. Sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/hr) were reported today at a Personal Weather Station in Costa del Morte, Spain. The pressure fell to 969 mb as Xynthia passed overhead. For comparison, Winter Storm Klaus had a minimum pressure of 967 mb. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Models predict that Xynthia will continue to intensify today, reaching 962 mb as it moves into the west coast of France Sunday morning. Sustained winds of 50 - 65 mph (80 - 105 km/hr) with hurricane-force gusts up to 100 mph (160 km/hr) are possible along the north coast of Spain tonight and the west coast of France on Sunday as Xynthia barrels through. The storm is also bringing an exceptionally moist plume of tropical moisture ashore, as seen in precipitable water imagery from NOAA (Figure 4). This moisture is likely to cause moderate to severe flooding in portions of Europe over the weekend.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image at 12 GMT of Xynthia.


Figure 4. Satellite measurements show a region of extremely high atmospheric moisture is associated with Winter Storm Xynthia. This moisture will surge over Portugal and Spain today, potentially creating serious flooding. Image credit: Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS.

Links to follow:
Wundermap for Northwest Spain
Spanish radar
Meteo-France
Portugese radar

Jeff Masters

Central Park 26Feb10 (MickyDee)
the BIG one Taken in Manhattan
Central Park 26Feb10
Tree 1, House 0 (Backbaybob)
This cottage was no match for 65 mph wind and an old pine tree.
Tree 1, House 0

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Quoting IKE:
IKE reporting in for a post before I head to Wal-Mart.

I just finished burning leaves and branches for 3 1/2 hours...contributing to Global Warming. WOOHOO!

It amazes me how "in your face" some of the folks that post here are. But, forget about that and forget about global warming; how about local air quality or maybe the local kid with asthma? This is from Burning Issues:

"Biomass Burning is a problem of long standing. Huge amounts of air pollution are produced worldwide by the annual burning of 3 billion metric tons of biomass such as wood, leaves, trees, grass and trash (Abelson). Biomass burning represents the largest source of air pollution in many rural areas of the developed and developing world. Biomass burning is used create heat, to clear forests, to dispose of leaves, crop stubble, trash and wood. Globally, biomass burning is estimated to produce 40 percent of the carbon dioxide, 32 percent of the carbon monoxide, 20 percent of the particulates, and 50 percent of the highly carcinogenic poly-aromatic hydrocarbons produced by all sources (Levine).

The ill-health effects of biomass burning are well-established. Smoke from biomass burning is particularly dangerous since most of the particulates are smaller than 10 microns in size (PM10) and are easily able to travel deep into the lungs. Numerous studies have noted that increasing levels of PM10 (even if below the US EPA standard of 50 micrograms PM10 per cubic meter of air) can significantly increase levels of respiratory and heart problems (Morris, Schwela) [and are linked with a sudden death rate of approximately 5 percent at that level. ed]. About 95 percent of this burning is set by people, although lightning sometimes ignites fields and forests (Levine)."


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Rep. Tom Perriello tells ‘spineless’ Senate to get ‘its head out of its rear end’ and confront climate crisis

Action: Quote | Ignore User


burning trees branches and leaves is a natural way of renewal

Quoting IKE:
IKE reporting in for a post before I head to Wal-Mart.

I just finished burning leaves and branches for 3 1/2 hours...contributing to Global Warming. WOOHOO!
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Texas and Louisiana,NOLA included had snow Xmas Day Dec 2004.

Dennis,Cindy,Katrina and Rita struck the N GOM coast in 2005

Time to start watching the ants and Squirrels almost.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640
The longest natural period for a seiche in an enclosed rectangular body of water is usually represented by the Merian formula:



where L is the length, h the average depth of the body of water, and g the acceleration of gravity.[4]

Higher order harmonics are also observed. The period of the second harmonic will be half the natural period, the period of the third harmonic will be a third of the natural period, and so forth.


A seiche (pronounced /ˈseɪʃ/ "saysh") is a standing wave in an enclosed or partially enclosed body of water.

Seiches and seiche-related phenomena have been observed on lakes, reservoirs, swimming pools, bays, and seas. The key requirement for formation of a seiche is that the body of water be at least partially bounded, allowing the formation of the standing wave.

The term was promoted by the Swiss hydrologist François-Alphonse Forel in 1890, who was the first to make scientific observations of the effect in Lake Geneva, Switzerland. The word originates in a Swiss French dialect word that means "to sway back and forth", which had apparently long been used in the region to describe oscillations in alpine lakes.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640

Today's quake was so strong, that it triggered a seiche in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, over 4,500 miles (7,000 km) away. The lake sloshed back and forth, creating a wave 0.4 - 0.51 feet on either side of the lake.


What is a seiche..?(pronounced "saysh")

Like water sloshing in a bathtub, seiches are tide-like rises and drops in Great Lakes coastal water levels caused by prolonged strong winds that push water toward one side of the lake, causing the water level to rise on the downwind side of the lake and to drop on the upwind side. When the wind stops, the water sloshes back and forth, with the nearshore water level rising and falling in decreasingly small amounts on both sides of the lake until it reaches equilibrium.

Or one big ol Earthquake 4500 Miles away..!!



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640
Quoting altesticstorm10:
StormW, would you agree with me that the Gulf is too cold? If this hurricane season wants a chance, the Gulf better heat up in a hurry...?



2/27/2010


2/27/2009


Notice how the Gulf is well colder than it was this time last year, and the E-Pac is much warmer this year than last. Could this mean an even more below-average hurricane season this year than last year?
they first come nw carb this season and sw western atlantic gom is running low if a lack of cloudiness devs. for spring warm up will begin if there is excessive cloudiness with periods of weather then warming will take longer inhibiting poss early systems exception being nw carb and sw western atlantic as it stands right now
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GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640
The weather here has improved enough for a short motorcycle ride.
HaSpruce Creek Fly-In, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
61.7 °F
Clear
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 39 °F
Wind: 2.0 mphfrom the West
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Have a nice afternoon everyone.
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I just post um Doug,I dont write um..LOL

But I do agree with the article,accu has a edge for silliness and Hype.

Or the FOX syndrome as we call it here..

I hope the article didnt upset your Love for the accuweather site.

You can contact the writer and dish it to Him.

Im full.

LOL again.

Snowpocalypse to snowicane: Hype reigns in winter
By GENARO C. ARMAS Associated Press Writer 2010 The Associated Press
Feb. 27, 2010, 1:32PM




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640
754. bcn
Xynthia, near 60 deads, flooding, ...

CNN
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Quoting IKE:
IKE reporting in for a post before I head to Wal-Mart.

I just finished burning leaves and branches for 3 1/2 hours...contributing to Global Warming. WOOHOO!

Rep. Tom Perriello tells ‘spineless’ Senate to get ‘its head out of its rear end’ and confront climate crisis
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Isn't the point that it is irresponsible for a mass distributed source of information that calls itself "accuweather" to invent a new meteorological term to describe an event?

Since they appear to want to use as many words as possible to describe an event, this intent would be better served by explaining what a snow storm and hurricane, if blended to together, would do, and explain the differences.

Explaining what something is not and sticking to the facts also makes better entertainment if that is what they're going for.

Congratulations to the Hawaiian Islands for a successful tsunami drill yesterday. Nobody got hurt. Now everyone knows what to do.

I was disappointed by the technical aspects, however; and wonder why no one can accurately predict the magnitude, given accurate variables. Maybe the right stuff to measure that isn't out there yet.

Anyway, this blog had real information.
I wonder still about Astro's comment of 5 waves merging. Was there a backwash of sorts that broke down what was headed east?
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Xynthia in germany


Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
747. IKE
IKE reporting in for a post before I head to Wal-Mart.

I just finished burning leaves and branches for 3 1/2 hours...contributing to Global Warming. WOOHOO!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
743 sho nuff.
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I don't have anybody on ignore. I'll respect your wishes and stay out of your mail-box.
You bash, I'll defend and leave it at that.
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good day all

lots of pissing in the wind going on here i see be careful wind can blow that stuff all over ya if ya don't do it right
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Well...we all have our faults Doug.


Im a work in progress.

Love trumps hate everytime.

Enjoy yer day and leave my lil World alone.

The Iggy button should remove my ramblings from your perception.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640
I'm a menace? I've seen you treat bloggers like dirt and talk down to 'em dozens of times. Spare me the self-righteousness.
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ESL by LSU

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Explain where I'm getting this wrong. Or are you so blinded by you're disdain for Accuweather that you can't see the trees for forest?



Portlight is admirable. I concede that.
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Explain where I'm getting this wrong. Or are you so blinded by you're disdain for Accuweather that you can't see the trees for forest?
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The NWS isnt a Business,its a well rounded Agency Doug that serves the Public,..not one that goes out their way to over hype a Snow Storm,into something it wasnt,nor could ever have been.

And I have 2 successful Businesses.


And I also serve a Growing Non-Profit called portlight.org,for the betterment of others less fortunate...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640
Accu Hype got caught in their own web of BS and over reaching by the Best.

The NWS

LOL.

And that's the way it is folks.

Now back to yer reg scheduled Blogging.

Or Joe B. Worshiping 101.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640
Hey Pat why don't you start a business where your competitor gives the same product away for free and see how long you last? I don't quite get you. What Accuweather has done is quite remarkable. It ought recognized as such.
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Quoting Patrap:
LOL, finally Joe B and his crew get their comeuppance...from the NWS.


The newspaper called the brouhaha a "meteorologist smackdown."



A "Perfect" call if ever there was one.


The perfect call was ACCUWEATHER's they nailed the storm and its effects WAY before the NWS or the WC did. That's a fact. The rest are jealous. And consider this. Accuweather has to sell a product that the NWS gives away free.
If they don't do a good job the free-market will vote with their dollars and ACCUWEATHER will cease to exist. Thats a fact so get over it.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like NOAA has done some rearranging on their site and has messed some links up that i have up on my site....that will take some fixing to do.


Happens to me every year. The URLs are never the same lol. It can get annoying when it's hard to find the page I used to have.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Links of interest

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Paris, France (CNN) -- A winter storm named "Xynthia" battered the western coast of Europe Sunday, its high winds downing trees and power lines and leaving as many as 29 people dead, authorities said.

At least 23 of those deaths came in France, local media reported, where the extra-tropical cyclone whipped the country's coastal regions and moved inland, bringing sometimes heavy flooding with it.

"At 3 o'clock in the morning, we heard the toilets backing up. We got up to look and then we saw 80 cm (about 31 inches) of water in the garage," a resident of Aiguillon-Sur-Mer, in the department of Vendee, told CNN affiliate BFM.

"It was rushing in, it broke down the walls around the garden and the gate."

At least one million households were without power Sunday afternoon, Bernard Lassus of Electricite de France told BFM.

The high winds -- at times spiking to 200 km/h (124 mph) -- reached inland as far as Paris, where as many as 100 flights were canceled at the Paris-Charles de Gaulle International Airport, BFM reported.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/02/28/europe.storms/
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Global SST differences from this time for analog years.

from 1998:



from 2004:



from 2005:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting TampaSpin:
Wow look at this warm water pool in the GOM...this is compared to last year at this time



Compared to 2004.....we might be in trouble.



And this is the difference from 2005:



Uh-oh.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Just a thought, but the moon was full overhead directly at midnight in Haiti after the Haiti earthquake, and when the ground shook in Chile the full moon was up as well.

Night sky from location of Chile earthquake, at the moment the quake struck:



Night sky in Chile from the same location during the last full moon, at midnight in Haiti's time zone:



Night sky in Haiti at midnight on the night of the full moon, same time as above:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting AussieStorm:


Fish fall out of the rain-filled sky in Northern Territory town of Lajamanu


WT ...
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Wind Speed: 5.0 kts.
9 °C
Berlin Tegel, Germany


Later this will change ...

http://www.spiegel.de/video/video-1051525.html
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Wow look at this warm water pool in the GOM...this is compared to last year at this time



Compared to 2004.....we might be in trouble.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
If you look really closely at the visible satellite image of Xynthia, you can actually see an eye-like feature forming near the holland/germany border ;)

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Quoting AussieStorm:
Night all. Stay safe


Nite Aussie stay safe and please dream of Spring for us all PLEASE!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting Patrap:
E did a fine 3 minute segment on Haiti with portlight.

Look for more from E in the coming weeks as well.

Cool.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting Ossqss:


LoL, If one of the Canadian fans at today's hockey game with a Canadian shirt on cheers the Americans, they might be tossed on the ice.

Ever been to a Philadelphia Eagles football game at their home field? That is no mans land if you cheer for he opponent. One visit there was enough for me to go through a box of band-aids and 20 lbs of ice when I got home. It sure was not Steeler's country.. The good thing is, we do have a choice :)


I doubt our founding fathers will yell for Canada just to be nice as they would be very simialar to Eagle Fan i'm sure...And ME! LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
E did a fine 3 minute segment on Haiti with portlight.

Look for more from E in the coming weeks as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128640
Night all. Stay safe
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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