Great earthquake rocks Chile; NYC gets 4th greatest snow ever; Xynthia batters Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:26 PM GMT on February 27, 2010

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A great earthquake with magnitude 8.8 rocked the coast of Chile at 6:34 GMT this morning, generating a potentially dangerous tsunami that is racing across the Pacific Ocean. The great quake is the 7th most powerful tremor in world history (Figure 1). Preliminary tsunami wave heights for the California coast near Santa Barbara are 2 - 2.5 feet. The wave is expected to arrive between 12:15 - 12:35 pm PST. The tsunami is expected to arrive in Hawaii between 11:05 - 11:42am HST, with a wave 8.2 feet high expected in Hilo, on the Big Island. A tsunami from the 9.5 Magnitude 1960 earthquake in Chile killed 61 people in Hilo. Today's quake was so strong, that it triggered a seiche in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, over 4,500 miles (7,000 km) away. The lake sloshed back and forth, creating a wave 0.4 - 0.51 feet on either side of the lake.


Figure 1. Wikipedia's list of strongest earthquakes of all-time.

Preliminary tsunami amplitude forecasts:

La Jolla, CA 2.3 ft
Los Angeles, CA 2.0 ft
Malibu, CA 2.6 ft
Pt. San Luis, CA 2.3 ft
Half Moon Bay, CA 2.6 ft
Crescent City, CA 1.7 ft
Morro Bay, CA 2.2 ft
Santa Monica, CA 3.3 ft
San Francisco, CA 0.7 ft
Pismo Beach, CA 4.6 ft

Hilo, HI 8.2 feet 11:5am HST
Honolulu, HI 1.6 ft 11:37am HST
Kahului, HI 7.2 ft 11:26am HST
Nawiliwili, HI 3.0 ft 11:42am HST
Haleiwa 1.6 ft
Kawaihae 2.0 ft

Port Orford, OR 0.7 ft

Moclip, WA 1.3 ft

Seward, AK 1.3 ft
Stika, AK 1.3 ft
Kodiak, AK 2.3 ft

Tofino, British Columbia 1.7 ft

Today's great quake occurred at the boundary between the Nazca and South American plates about 325 km southwest of the capital Santiago (population 5.3 million). The depth was estimated at 35 km. At least four aftershocks of magnitude 6 or higher have occurred, the largest being a 6.9 aftershock. Fortunately, the area close to the epicenter is relatively sparsely populated, but there may be heavy damage in Concepción (est. pop. 300,000) and Chillan (est. pop. 170,000), which lie 115 km and 100 km to the south of the epicenter, respectively.


Figure 2. NOAA's preliminary forecast of tsunami wave energy for today's earthquake. Image credit: NOAA Tsunami Warning Center.

New York City slammed with its 4th largest snowstorm on record
The snow from the fourth extreme snowstorm to wallop the Northeast U.S. this winter dumped a remarkable 20.9" of snow on New York City's Central Park yesterday and Thursday. This is the 4th largest snowstorm for the city in recorded history. According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park are:

26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
20.9" Feb 25-26, 2010
20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978
17.6" Feb 11-12, 1983
17.5" Feb 4-7, 1920

The storm also helped New York City set a new all-time snowfall record for the most snow ever recorded in a month--36.9". The old record was 30.5", set in March 1896. However, the old Lower Manhattan WB Station recorded 37.9" in February 1894. Yesterday's snowstorm puts New York City's snow for the 2009 - 2010 season at 51.4", making it the 11th snowiest winter since 1869. Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, lists the city's all-time seasonal snowfall record at 81.5", set in the winter of 1867 - 1868. This measurement came before official records began in Central Park, and were done be the NY Park Commissioners (see "Annual Report NY Park Commissioners", 1868, by John B. Marie). The second snowiest winter in NYC occurred during the winter of 1995 - 1996, when 75.6" fell.

Destructive Winter Storm Xynthia battering Portugal and Spain
A powerful 969 mb low pressure system named "Xynthia" is rapidly intensifying of the coast of Spain, and stands poised to deliver a devastating blow to Portugal, Spain, and France today and tomorrow as it powers through Europe. Sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/hr) were reported today at a Personal Weather Station in Costa del Morte, Spain. The pressure fell to 969 mb as Xynthia passed overhead. For comparison, Winter Storm Klaus had a minimum pressure of 967 mb. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Models predict that Xynthia will continue to intensify today, reaching 962 mb as it moves into the west coast of France Sunday morning. Sustained winds of 50 - 65 mph (80 - 105 km/hr) with hurricane-force gusts up to 100 mph (160 km/hr) are possible along the north coast of Spain tonight and the west coast of France on Sunday as Xynthia barrels through. The storm is also bringing an exceptionally moist plume of tropical moisture ashore, as seen in precipitable water imagery from NOAA (Figure 4). This moisture is likely to cause moderate to severe flooding in portions of Europe over the weekend.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image at 12 GMT of Xynthia.


Figure 4. Satellite measurements show a region of extremely high atmospheric moisture is associated with Winter Storm Xynthia. This moisture will surge over Portugal and Spain today, potentially creating serious flooding. Image credit: Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS.

Links to follow:
Wundermap for Northwest Spain
Spanish radar
Meteo-France
Portugese radar

Jeff Masters

Central Park 26Feb10 (MickyDee)
the BIG one Taken in Manhattan
Central Park 26Feb10
Tree 1, House 0 (Backbaybob)
This cottage was no match for 65 mph wind and an old pine tree.
Tree 1, House 0

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Good night everyone supposed to be another snow storm Tuesday
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Quoting altesticstorm10:
I don't think there was a single user with their head on straight who predicted 2009 to be above-average off the bat or at all. Stormtop (a controversial user) and I were correct for the most part, as he predicted 7 named storms and I predicted 8 last year.

Why is 2010 going to be an active hurricane season? Because so far, all signs point to it. Just look at the SST anomalies.

Levi, quite interesting blog -- but you predicted 14/8/4? That's conservative. That falls shy of both 2007 and 2008. This year will rival 1995 (at least) -- just wait.



My numbers are near the average of the analog package, which is indeed weighted low considering over half of the analogs were during a cold AMO. However, this far out I'm not going to pass the 15-storm line. If things look the same way in May I may very well up the number, depending on what I see, but for now I am happy with my estimates. It is still early, and most hurricane predictions are made in May.

14 storms still constitutes a well-above-average season, and keep in mind that, assuming my number is accurate, this year has the potential to crush many of the other 14-storm years in terms of total A.C.E. (average intensity of storms) and impact (landfalls).
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting atmoaggie:

I am not even sold on the 14 total...yet.

14 or more I think is a pretty safe bet 2007 had 15 storms and it was technically below average (by ACE) but again hurricane season is three months away it's a little silly to make an exact prediction so far ahead
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961. Skyepony (Mod)
The storm is pulling together over TX/OK


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Quoting all4hurricanes:

I understand 14/8/4 being low as a prediction but 1995 was an active year; no one can be sure this year will be more active than that. I wouldn't jump into the deep end just yet

I am not even sold on the 14 total...yet.
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Remember that some of Watts' claims have already been debunked

Hey Astro explain what in the article I posted is wrong? The scientist did say snow would become rare and the nws predicted above average chances for a warm winter here.
It must be nice to be able to blame any event on AGW.
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If we have a neutral season, then this will be a rip snorter. Is that what you're saying?
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Quoting altesticstorm10:
I don't think there was a single user with their head on straight who predicted 2009 to be above-average off the bat or at all. Stormtop (a controversial user) and I were correct for the most part, as he predicted 7 named storms and I predicted 8 last year.

Why is 2010 going to be an active hurricane season? Because so far, all signs point to it. Just look at the SST anomalies.

Levi, quite interesting blog -- but you predicted 14/8/4? That's conservative. That falls shy of both 2007 and 2008. This year will rival 1995 (at least) -- just wait.


I understand 14/8/4 being low as a prediction but 1995 was an active year; no one can be sure this year will be more active than that. I wouldn't jump into the deep end just yet
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Burning leaves is like burning money.. Skyepony
I live on one acre, on a barrier island, totally treed, with lots of leaves everywhere, including the trees.
I don't have to worry about leaves messing up my lawn because my "lawn" is oak trees with palmettos smattered in between them.
When I had a lawn, I used to mow the leaves; ie chop them up with the lawnmover.
Those little bits of leaf would feed my lawn so I didn't have to pay for lawn fertilizer.
I did invest in a sprinkler system, however.
If you want a lawn, you have to water it.
That much I know.
Now that I don't have a lawn anymore, I don't have to worry about the sprinkler system or the weeds I'd spend hours and hours pulling out by the roots, though I did enjoy that.
So, don't burn your leaves.
Think of them as nutrient pellets for your plants.
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954. Skyepony (Mod)
Astro~ I looked at polar motion here last night. It was plotted thru feb 25th. It's not working for me tonight.
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Quoting trinigal:


Hey, I'm a huge fan of fictional writings myself :)

more interested in Tuesday's weather here in Tampa at the moment though.


I'm interested in Tuesday/Wednesday's weather in North Carolina. (Same storm system) It looks to be a VERY tricky forecast situation. The track and strength of the low up our coast could make HUGE differences in snowfall totals across the state. Unfortunately, I don't think those exact details will be known until the event begins to unfold. I'm hoping for a stronger low that tracks closer to the coast in order to see significant snow accum here in Greensboro. Anyone have any ideas or analysis?
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Quoting timpatio:
Welcome to Jeff Masters "Global warming propaganda Board".- sponsored by Al Gore


Hey, I'm a huge fan of fictional writings myself :)

more interested in Tuesday's weather here in Tampa at the moment though.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Felix was A very exciting storm that could have been a lot worse. I remember checking the computer every hour or so and seeing Felix was upped another category. It went from 1 to 5 in one day I think.

Yet, was a puff of clouds in the distance and no wind from 100 miles away. (Has a lot to do with it's rapid rate of intensification)
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Quoting misanthrope:


Are you saying that this has something to do with burning leaves/trash/plastic in your back yard?

For the record, I'm with Orca. Suppression of forest fires that do not threaten life or property is utter folly. However, taking simple steps to protect the health of the public seems pretty reasonable to me.


Sir, you are confusing me with your handle and your words. Something is at odds here>... I am just sayin :)

Misanthropy is a general dislike, distrust, disgust, contempt, or hatred of the human species. A misanthrope is someone who harbors those views and feelings.
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Quoting altesticstorm10:

Hey, let's look at it this way: the wishcasters will finally be satisfied. The downcasters had their year last year. As a user who's existed on this blog since 2006 -- one who's wishcasted, fishcasted, downcasted and westcasted; trolled and been trolled, "iggied" and been "iggied"; commanded attention and brought attention upon others, I'll say one thing: The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season's sure to be an interesting one on this most famous/infamous blog.

Why is it that every season is going to be interesting? I mean all season are somewhat interesting but every year they say about 11-16 storms 5-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. what about 2010 will make this year especially active?
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email, seastep.

And...

Ehh, y'all are perfectly welcome to start talking tropical (instead of that...stuff) and looking at analogue years, etc. It is a little much to really get into some excessively above average year prognostication or start with US landfalls, and such, IMHO.

Is possible for us to have a little extra clouds and/or wind for the next few months in the gulf and keep it at or below average.

Currently, not a friend of anything tropical (of course):
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I'm out for a while, later all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Hey, let's look at it this way: the wishcasters will finally be satisfied. The downcasters had their year last year. As a user who's existed on this blog since 2006 -- one who's wishcasted, fishcasted, downcasted and westcasted; trolled and been trolled, "iggied" and been "iggied"; commanded attention and brought attention upon others, I'll say one thing: The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season's sure to be an interesting one on this most famous/infamous blog.


The wishcasters and the downcasters will never be satisfied.

The wishcasters want Category 5 hurricanes every Saturday to get them out of school for a few weeks.

The downcasters want no hurricanes at all, mostly to troll and mess with the wishcasters and those who are just speaking their minds.
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Felix was A very exciting storm that could have been a lot worse. I remember checking the computer every hour or so and seeing Felix was upped another category. It went from 1 to 5 in one day I think.
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Quoting altesticstorm10:
LOL. Wishcasters didn't like 2007 due to the lack of U.S. landfalls.

And yes, everything went west in 2007, as it did in July 2005 until that big trough that would take Irene and shear TD10 to death came down in the central Atlantic. But since when does the SSTs impact the Bermuda High? I'm sure there's a lot more factors that have to do with the subtropical highs than water temperature.



I never said either of those things, but since you bring it up, yes SSTs can have an effect on the strength or position of the subtropical high. Colder-than-normal water promotes net subsidence of air, and warmer-than-normal water promotes net upward motion. When these areas organize in a large-scale way over the Atlantic, it sets up large zones of surface convergence and divergence, which can either strengthen, weaken, or influence the average position of the subtropical high, as well as the dominant areas of low pressure in the tropics.

My blog details this as well.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting misanthrope:


"... at some scale composting isn't realistic?" At what scale is that? You like burning leaves, go for it. No need to make things up to try and justify your behavior to me. But if you think your pollution somehow stays confined to your little football field, you have a lot to learn about atmospheric physics.

I guess if you choose to live in the state with the 4th highest rate of cancer death in the country you probably have a different perspective on things. Still can't understand putting your children at risk, but that's just me, I guess.


1. This wasn't about me burning leaves, but I have, retain my right to do so, and will vote accordingly in my parish.
2. Make things up? Really, there is such a scenario where it simply isn't a reasonable endeavor to compost.
3. Yeah, please teach me some atmo physics. (Really, I can whip up a dispersion model for the particulates given the emission rate and wind conditions. In the absence of a good wind, particle counts 100 yards away, and further, are minuscule. But maybe I can learn something from the guru, here.)
4. So you don't like Louisiana? (Like this has anything at all to do with Ike's leaves!?!) Should I turn my back on 6 generations of family history and move far, far away? (Does seem to be a lacking culture in the world of cookie-cutter houses, manicured tiny-lawns devoid of trees, where everyone eats only at chain restaurants...you can have that...enjoy.)
5. No, I am not putting any children at risk. I didn't say I burn with kids around, nor will I when any kid is going to get any amount of smoke in the face.

If you didn't like my attitude, which seems to be the case, you shouldn't have tossed the first stone.
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awww...sorry seastep. But at least you tried to get the leaves to decompose. And as far as old Florida homes? Well...you can always head back down this way. There's still a few left.
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929 Aquak - No problem. While I don't miss the cold, I did love that house. It was built in 1912. Cherry wood trim, high ceilings (much rarer up N) with visible wood beams and real wood floors.

Lots of character, with it's creaks and water-radiator heat.

You're making me get all sentimental now. :)
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Okay, so I see that that gully washer is due to hit Florida on Tuesday. What are the thoughts on the Tampa area and this system?
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Quoting Ossqss:


Those compost piles can be a bit smelly when anaerobic conditions are present. I need a yard too. That's where the mulching comes into play. Everything goes right back where it came from. No hydrogen sulfide or VFAs making a stink. Just spread out and green :)


Worked great with the grass, but not the fall leaves, unfortunately. Learned the hard way.

Really did it to try to save from having to rake them all!

No go. Just too many. It was more like covering the yard with store-bought mulch.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


1960 was the season right after the great Chilean earthquake in 1960, and that season produced Donna and Ethel. Of course it's probably just a coincidence but 2004 also led up to the devastating 2005 season. Are there any similarities of this season to 1954, which produced hurricane Hazel, and many other storms in the Carolinas (like we're supposed to see this year)?



And this is without the global warming contribution. Remember that we had a spike in January (I'm waiting to see the February data) and ocean gyres have slowed down and quasistationary highs have weakened and shunk. This year we're getting a combination of elements that produce devastating storms from El Nino, El Nino Modoki, Neutral, La Nina, and transitional years.


Regarding 1954, it's not a superb analog, considering that during this part of the '50s an El Nino hadn't been seen since 1951, and 1954 was a La Nina year that was the first in a 3-year La Nina, the longest in recorded history. However, a predominantly negative to neutral NAO during the summer contributed to the position of the Bermuda High close to the SE U.S. which allowed the horrid beating of the Carolinas that year, and the same pattern of steering storms more towards the west is forecast to develop this season.

And yes, a lot of factors are lining up this year to make it a bad season. If things still look this way in May, it's probably not gonna be pretty.

The warming in January was expected due to volcanic activity in the polar regions last year which caused a lot of blocking this winter, in combination with the El Nino, and February will also be very warm.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting aquak9:
2007- a very late night, bloggers glued to their screens, as we watched the data coming in from the hunters inside Felix.

Felix got mad and spat out the hunters.

We all learned what "graupel" was.


Felix was certainly a interesting little storm for sure. I just wish it was a fish, too many lives are changed by a single storm
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2007- a very late night, bloggers glued to their screens, as we watched the data coming in from the hunters inside Felix.

Felix got mad and spat out the hunters.

We all learned what "graupel" was.
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Quoting altesticstorm10:

I'm sure 1933 could be just as easily thrown in there too, but he's not including the era before they began naming storms...

Don't "throw out" 2005 when analyzing stats. It's just stupid. 2005 didn't happen in an action movie, it really happened. We're in the same "favorable" cycle that we've been in since 1995 that has included the year 2005. It's just simply unwise and foolish to say that a season to rival 2005 won't happen in the next 10 years.

I wouldn't consider 2007, however, to be an analog year. I remember that year quite well and the SSTs were cold near Africa (south of the 10%uFFFDN isotherem, unlike this year) until late July, they were much colder than this year is shaping up to be, and it was a strong to moderate La Nina, as well as the fact that dry air baked many of the to-be developing storms and invests that occurred in 2007. Just saying.

It'll all depend on how quickly El Nino GTFO's, really. If it becomes neutral by May/June, look out, seriously. A neutral ENSO hurricane season with above average SST's and low shear? 2005 all over again.


I never threw 2005 out. I put that in parenthesizes for the people that consider 2005 to be a fluke and an outlier in the statistics.

And yes, 1933 was in the same climate cycle as we are, but I decided to leave the stuff before 1958, simply because people argue about the accuracy of data farther back than that. I guarantee you though I would find a ton of analogs in the 30s, 40s, and early 50s, as we are currently in the same climate cycle as we were during that time. A couple days ago I posted a bunch of scary years from that period that line up with the others.

2007 isn't that bad of an analog year. In late February the SST pattern was similar to this year with a dying El Nino, and warm in the deep tropical Atlantic with cold to the north. Yes SSTs cooled in the deep tropics during the height of the season, but the same steering currents which we are fearing could shape up this year directed nearly every storm to the west, making it a very bad year for the Caribbean. People forget that we did have 15 named storms in 2007, with two Cat 5s that made landfall in the Caribbean. 2007 was nothing to laugh at in any stretch of the imagination.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting tornadodude:


whats up Oz?


Just trying to stay out of trouble. Ice Castles is playing on the "big screen" right now with plenty of girls in attendance.

I'm going to hit the hay early tonight so that the crying doesn't wake me up.

How you doin'?
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no problem, seastep. I shouldn't have butted in, in the middle of the conversation.

Different grasses, different climates- everyone finds the best solution for their specific needs. :)
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Quoting Seastep:
904 Skyepony - an entire yard of compost 1 foot high and growing?

No thanks. How in the world would one enjoy their yard?

Yes, that is how many leaves I got in my yard. The bit I did compost composed about a 10 x 10 1-2 feet.

I am, of course, assuming you've walked on a compost pile.

Maybe I'm missing something here?


Those compost piles can be a bit smelly when anaerobic conditions are present. I need a yard too. That's where the mulching comes into play. Everything goes right back where it came from. No ammonia, hydrogen sulfide or VFAs making a stink. Just spread out and green :)
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927. JRRP
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The WHWP will likely develop earlier this year, though probably in the Caribbean earlier than the Gulf, and maybe as early as April.

Recent studies have shown that the Atlantic portion of the WHWP (AWP) is significantly correlated with Atlantic hurricane activity. A large (or small) AWP reduces (or increases) the tropospheric vertical wind shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes and increases (or decreases) the moist static instability of the troposphere, both of which favor (or don't favor) the intensification of tropical storms into major hurricanes.



Here's the Atlantic SST map for late Feb 2005:





All of those years had at least one hurricane hitting Haiti and/or the Gulf Coast between NOLA and Mobile. Gulp.



The Loop Current usually heats it up at first before the Caribbean pulse rushes north, and it looks like the Loop Current is stronger than last year in addition to the pulse likely arriving earlier and stronger.



Like I said several times, the North Atlantic Gyre has stalled. This contributed to the flooding in Madeira. The 20C SSTs are virtually flat, and we could therefore get some strange tracks for storms this year like the one I hypothesized earlier.

is true at least one TC strikes Haiti
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


From Wattsupwiththat.com There’s no business like snow business


Feb 23 2010

Headlines yesterday mentioned yet another new snowfall record: Moscow Covered by More Than Half Meter of Snow, Most Since 1966

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Moscow’s streets were covered by 53 centimeters (20.9 inches) of snow this morning after 15 centimeters fell in 24 hours, putting Russia’s capital on course for its snowiest February since at least 1966.

Workers cleared a record 392,000 cubic meters (13.8 million cubic feet) of snow over the 24-hour period that ended this morning as precipitation exceeded the average February amount by 50 percent, according to state television station Rossiya 24. The city had 64 centimeters of snow cover on Feb. 23, 1966, the previous record, Rossiya 24 said.

In a story from Russia’s news agency, TASS, they mention that:

This year’s February is quite unique from the meteorological point of view. Not a single thaw has been registered so far and the temperature remains way below the average throughout the month.

I guess the Mayor of Moscow’s “Canute like” promise back in October didn’t work out so well. From Time magazine:

Moscow Mayor Promises a Winter Without Snow

Pigs still can’t fly, but this winter, the mayor of Moscow promises to keep it from snowing. For just a few million dollars, the mayor’s office will hire the Russian Air Force to spray a fine chemical mist over the clouds before they reach the capital, forcing them to dump their snow outside the city. Authorities say this will be a boon for Moscow, which is typically covered with a blanket of snow from November to March. Road crews won’t need to constantly clear the streets, and traffic — and quality of life — will undoubtedly improve.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1930822,00.html#ixzz0gLCDh32U
So this winter’s heavy snow and cold in the NH is not just a US problem. It is interesting though to note that snow spin seems to span continents.Before they were saying that increased winter snow is due to global warming, climate scientists were saying that decreased winter snow was due to global warming. As discussed already on WUWT, climate models predict declining winter snow cover. And a senior climate scientist predicted ten years ago :

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

There is no shortage of similar claims:

Decline in Snowpack Is Blamed On Warming Using data collected over the past 50 years, the scientists confirmed that the mountains are getting more rain and less snow http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/31/AR2008013101868.html

Many Ski Resorts Heading Downhill as a Result of Global Warming http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=363&ArticleID=4313&l=en

The prediction below was particularly entertaining, given that it was made during Aspen’s all time snowiest winter.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

DENVER — A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow on lower slopes…. The study by two Colorado researchers says Aspen Mountain in Colorado and Park City in Utah will see dramatic changes even with a reduction in carbon emissions, which fuel climate change …. . Skiing at Aspen, with an average temperature 8.6 degrees higher than now, will be marginal. http://www.aspendailynews.com/section/home/131044

Global Warming Poses Threat to Ski Resorts in the Alps Climatologists say the warming trend will become dramatic by 2020
Global Warming Poses Threat to Ski Resorts in the Alps – New York Times

Himalayan snow melting in winter too, say scientists Himalayan snow melting in winter too, say scientists – SciDev.Net

Global warming ‘past the point of no return’ Friday, 16 September 2005 Global warming ‘past the point of no return’ – Science, News – The Independent

So what are they saying now?

Global Warming could equal massive snow storms Great Lakes and Global Warming could equal massive snow storms

Snow is consistent with global warming, say scientists Britain may be in the grip of the coldest winter for 30 years and grappling with up to a foot of snow in some places but the extreme weather is entirely consistent with global warming, claim scientists. Snow is consistent with global warming, say scientists – Telegraph

Climate Scientist: Record-Setting Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Linked to Global Warming

The Blizzard of 1996 does indeed qualify as one type of extreme weather to be expected in a warmer climate Blame Global Warming for the Blizzard – NYTimes.com

The great thing about global warming is that you can blame anything on it, and then deny it later.


Remember that some of Watts' claims have already been debunked. Of course, any event signifying a change from the normal climate pattern would denote abnormal climate change. The winter pattern this year has been largely the result of ocean current abnormalities and a partial Gulf Stream collapse and shift that was temporary but ongoing. Global warming is not nessecarily only in one direction, and this is especially true when it comes to winter precipitation. For example, the Great Lakes could see more snowqualls at first due to more moisture and longer unfrozen periods, then fewer squalls due to more predominantly dry air and shrinkage of the lakes. The same is true for the extremes in both directions, which will increase in amplitude until the averages catch up. The winter season in the US is similar to that of 1993, which saw above-normal snowfall in winter and high soil moisture in the previous autummn. The result was a once-in-500 years flooding event through spring and summer. By the way, I made a prediction back in December that this near-weekly US mini-superstorm pattern would cause an increase in climate change skepticism worldwide, and especially in the SE US, due to a confluence of a large Conservative population and the concentration of below-normal temperatures and heavy snowstorms. That prediction turned out to be right.

Quoting Levi32:
The complete hurricane season analog package this year is comprised of the following years:

1958

1964

1966

1970

1978

1995

1998

2005

2007

The average number of named storms for these years was 15 (13 if you throw out 2005). 85 of the 131 total named storms during these years either formed or tracked west of 70W. 35 of these made landfall on the U.S., which is an average of 4 a year, but nearly all of the 85 made landfall or strongly impacted at least one country.

Lots more information on these analogs can be found in my blog.


1960 was the season right after the great Chilean earthquake in 1960, and that season produced Donna and Ethel. Of course it's probably just a coincidence but 2004 also led up to the devastating 2005 season. Are there any similarities of this season to 1954, which produced hurricane Hazel, and many other storms in the Carolinas (like we're supposed to see this year)?

Quoting Levi32:


Unfortunately yes. The reality is we're in a very active period in Atlantic hurricanes, and will continue to be for at least the next 10-15 years.


And this is without the global warming contribution. Remember that we had a spike in January (I'm waiting to see the February data) and ocean gyres have slowed down and quasistationary highs have weakened and shunk. This year we're getting a combination of elements that produce devastating storms from El Nino, El Nino Modoki, Neutral, La Nina, and transitional years.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
And I tried the mulching mower thing... and wound up with dead grass.

Just saying that on that property it was not feasible to compost.
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921. AstroHurricane001 1:16 AM GMT on March 01, 2010

Neutral years have produced the most tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes since 1995 and that's pretty close to what we're supposed to see this year. YIKES.


Yeah, contrary to popular belief, strong La Ninas are not the best conditions for active Atlantic hurricane seasons. This is because, although La Ninas do set up favorable atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic, they also cool the world's tropical oceans and lower heat content in the tropics. During strong La Ninas, this cooling effect offsets and sometimes overpowers La Nina's favorable atmospheric effect on the Atlantic, resulting in less storms and lower average intensity of the storms. Because of this, near-neutral ENSO conditions, especially heading in a cold direction, are the best setup for active Atlantic hurricane seasons, because although upper-level atmospheric conditions aren't quite as favorable as during a La Nina, they aren't severely limited either, and the heat content in the tropics remains high. This balance is generally the best setup for the Atlantic on average.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
920 Aquak - We were discussing my previous yard in NJ, not here in FL.

Very natural, obviously. Tons of leaves.

I like to "let it be natural" other than the lawn.
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By the way, does anyone have a link to the earth rotation thing?

Quoting misanthrope:


"... at some scale composting isn't realistic?" At what scale is that? You like burning leaves, go for it. No need to make things up to try and justify your behavior to me. But if you think your pollution somehow stays confined to your little football field, you have a lot to learn about atmospheric physics.

I guess if you choose to live in the state with the 4th highest rate of cancer death in the country you probably have a different perspective on things. Still can't understand putting your children at risk, but that's just me, I guess.



Here in S. Ontario, we have green bin programs that collect compostable waste, and a separate system for yard waste. Now the recycling and green bins are collected more than the garbage, and yard waste about once or twice a month.

Quoting StormW:
ENSO and ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONES


Neutral years have produced the most tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes since 1995 and that's pretty close to what we're supposed to see this year. YIKES.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep you are correct. Here is a 10 day loop about to update and it appears it will stay cold for the next several days in the south...


So it looks like we'll have an active tornado season and heavy flooding come April - May as warm and cold air collide over the Midwest and the snows begin to melt.

Quoting barbamz:
BBC-Report:

Rain triggers deadly floods in Haiti

At least eight people have been killed in floods triggered by heavy rain in Haiti, officials have said.

The deaths occurred in or near the southeastern port city of Les Cayes which was swamped by more than 1.5m (5ft) of water.

Officials said buildings affected included a hospital and a prison where more than 400 inmates were evacuated.

About a million Haitians are still homeless following January's earthquake which killed up to 230,000 people.

The floods have come several weeks ahead of Haiti's traditional rainy season.

"The situation is grave... whole areas are completely flooded. People have climbed on to the roofs of their homes," local senator Francky Exius told AFP news agency.


Witnesses said some homes had collapsed and people were fleeing for safer areas.

At least two people are reported missing in the floods. One report puts the death toll at 11.

Staff at the flooded hospital in Les Cayes moved patients to the safety of higher floors, reports say, while UN peacekeepers helped police to evacuate the jail.

Les Cayes lies on a peninsula 160km (100 miles) west of the capital Port-au-Prince.

It was unaffected by the earthquake, but its 70,000 population has been swollen by survivors fleeing from earthquake-hit areas.



Oh, my. It must have been that outburst of convection that passed through the Caymans, Cuba, Haiti, and is now heading for Europe.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Her yard is not an entire compost pile, Seastep. Not in the sense that you're thinking.

Leaves and grass debris often decompose fairly quickly in central florida, with the help of afternoon rains, high heat and humidity.

Not everyone in florida has a "better homes and gardens" yard. Natural is better and healthier for the environment.
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904 Skyepony - an entire yard of compost 1 foot high and growing?

No thanks. How in the world would one enjoy their yard?

Yes, that is how many leaves I got in my yard. The bit I did compost composed about a 10 x 10 1-2 feet.

I am, of course, assuming you've walked on a compost pile.

Maybe I'm missing something here?
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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2010

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN NCNTRL FL TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SWD INTO SCNTRL FL DURING THE DAY WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLY ORGANIZING ALONG A COLD FRONT. USING THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
FROM MELBOURNE SWD TO MIAMI WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAXIMIZE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR MIAMI TUESDAY AT 21Z SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WINDS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
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Quoting ecflawthr:
how bad is the severe weather potential for Florida Tuesday?
The potential for the worst weather will occur in a line from Naples to Melbourne. The rest of the state can expect very gusty winds and strong thunderstorms.
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how bad is the severe weather potential for Florida Tuesday?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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