Heavy snow, high winds, flooding for the Northeast; destructive Winter Storm Xynthia nears Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on February 26, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

A major winter storm continues to pound the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. today, as a powerful 979 mb low pressure system stalled out over Long Island Sound brings heavy snow, flooding rains, and high winds to the region. The storm dropped more than two feet of snow over Eastern New York near Albany, and surrounding regions of Western Massachusetts and Southern Vermont. One location in Vermont, West Halifax, received over three feet of snow--38.5". Heavy rains in excess of three inches has fallen over large sections of Northeast, including 8.38" at Scarborough, Maine. Rivers have spilled out of their banks over sections of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and southwestern Maine, resulting in many road closures. Sustained winds of 25 - 40 mph have been common all along the coast, with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph common in the Appalachian Mountains. The prize for most extreme weather goes to New Hampshire's Mount Washington. At midnight, the Mount Washington Observatory reported sustained winds of 104 mph, gusting to 123, visibility zero in moderate snow, and a temperature of 21°F.

Fourth greatest snow for New York City, and still accumulating
The storm has dumped 20.8" of snow on New York City's Central Park as of 1pm EST today, making it the 4th largest snowstorm for the city in recorded history. With another 1 - 3 inches likely for the city today, the storm should rank as the 3rd largest snowfall on record before it's over. According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park should now read:

26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
20.8" Feb 25-26, 2010
20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978
17.6" Feb 11-12, 1983
17.5" Feb 4-7, 1920


Figure 1. Total radar-estimated precipitation from this week's storm over Maine. A large swath of 4+ inches of precipitation has fallen on a wet snowpack, creating flooding problems.

Today's storm will linger and slowly weaken through Saturday, bringing an additional 6+ inches of snow over portions of southeast New York, western Connecticut, and western Massachusetts. The strong winds will die down by tonight, aiding the efforts of utility repair crews struggling to keep up with all the power outages created by combination of high winds and wet, heavy snow.

Next storm
The active storm pattern isn't going to change over the few weeks for the Eastern U.S. The next potential snowstorm will be Tuesday, and will affect the Southeast U.S. Although it is too early to be confident of the amount or type of precipitation this storm will bring, snow will be a possibility for northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and portions of North and South Carolina.

Destructive Winter Storm Xynthia headed for Europe
A large 1000 mb low pressure system named "Xynthia" is over the eastern Atlantic, and is expected to rapidly intensify Saturday morning into a meteorological "bomb" that will bring high winds and flooding rains to Portugal, northern Spain, and western France. The models are coming into better agreement now, and have shifted their position for the storm's maximum intensity eastwards. France is now in the bullseye, and the storm is predicted to be at maximum intensity on Sunday morning when it will be positioned over northwestern France. The storm's powerful cold front will sweep ashore south of the low, bringing sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph (80 - 95 km/hr) to the coast of France's Bay of Biscay, with gusts over hurricane force (120 km/hr). The central pressure at that time will range from 966 mb to 972 mb, according to two of our top computer models, the ECMWF and GFS. This is about the same intensify as last year's Winter Storm Klaus. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra. Meteo-France has put out a bulletin warning of the possibility of hurricane-force wind gusts on Sunday, and is recommending that residents limit travel and avoid the threatened areas if the forecasts remains on track. While the storm is not expected to be as intense when it moves over Portugal and northern Spain on Saturday, these regions will still receive tropical storm-force wind with gusts to hurricane force. The Spanish Meteorological Agency is warning of the possibility of 100 mph (160 km/hr) wind gusts over northern Spain on Saturday. The damage total from this weekend's storm over all of Europe will probably exceed $1 billion, making it the globe's second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2010. The first was the back-to-back blizzards over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region earlier this month, which are being blamed for over $2 billion in insured losses, according to Eqecat, a risk management firm.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Xynthia.


Figure 3. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/26/10 run of the GFS model for 00 GMT Sunday for surface winds. The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure of 972 mb. Sustained winds just below hurricane force of 60 - 75 mph (green colors) are expected offshore from France. Image was generated using our wundermap for France with the "model" layer turned on.

Links to follow:
La Palma, Canary Islands was reporting sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 45 mph today.
Wundermap for Northwest Spain
Spanish radar
Meteo-France
Portugese radar
Meteored.com Spanish weather forum
Portugese weather forum
French weather forum

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
The damage from last month's catastrophic earthquake in Haiti has now been estimated at $7.2 billion to $13.2 billion, according to a study released last week by the Inter-American Development Bank. This figure is 1 - 2 times the $7 billion GDP of Haiti estimated by the World Bank. In the face of such a massive disaster, every little bit of help is needed, and Portlight.org has been doing a fantastic job getting relief into Haiti for those who need it most. Below is a link to a 3-minute long piece E News did on Portlight's efforts in Haiti:



Other press:
Much-Needed Rehab Equipment Obtained through Portlight.org, from the Real Medicine Foundation Blog.

Bill Ranic's Blog

The Portlight disaster-relief effort continues in Haiti, and please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate.

Next post
I'll have a post this weekend.

Jeff Masters

NYC snowstorm (grach)
Third avenue
NYC snowstorm
Tree Collapse - Beech Court (thesspa)
Tree Collapse - Beech Court

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 72 - 22

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Some rivers in the NE are starting to reach close to historic levels:






Looks like this will just miss being a historic flood event.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Oh yea, Accuweather hyped this one.


I must admit, Accuweather.com was right on the money on this one. Amazing snow totals and wind gusts.

And the snow will steadily fly throughout the Tri-State Area of NY, NJ & CT through about 12 Noon EST tomorrow, with periods of moderate accumulating snows!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CycloneOz:
USA GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLL!

USA-1
FIN-0

FIN!!!!! ;)

And i was surprised to see germany ranked 2nd, when you click the google logo you get these

1. United States 8/12/12/32
2. Germany 8/11/7/26
3. Norway 7/6/6/19

gold/silver/bronze/overall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


02 25 11:00 pm ENE 67 78 - - - - 28.82 -0.40 42.3 - 42.1 - - -

67KT-77 MPH
78KT-90 MPH
Quoting

Bordonaro:

1:50PM CST 2/26/10 NWS NYC, NY SNOWFALL UPDATE LINK BELOW. Totals from 3" on Eastern LI to 32" in Westchester Co, NY!!
Link



Oh yea, Accuweather hyped this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Snowstorm cuts power in parts of Northeast
February 26, 2010 -- Updated 1720 GMT (0120 HKT)

(CNN) -- A major winter storm walloped the Northeast on Friday, a day after heavy snow closed schools and roads and caused dangerous conditions.

The storm knocked out power to nearly 240,000 homes and businesses in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, slowed traffic and could prompt authorities to cancel up to 1,000 flights at airports serving New York and New Jersey.

The storm also frustrated people such as Lulis Leal, a medical office manager who was working from her home in Cedar Grove, New Jersey. She was planning to help her son move into an apartment when she peered out the window Friday morning to see her car covered in snow.

"I can't even move it out of my driveway," she said. "The snow is up over my knee."

She ventured out amid the snow Thursday, saw several wrecks and added a half-hour to her trip by avoiding a snow-covered hill.

"It's very pretty to look at, but it's like, come on, enough already," she said. "I'm very much looking forward to spring."

The rough weather prompted officials to suspend bus service in northern New Jersey.

About 225,000 homes and businesses were without power Friday in New York, said Jim Denn of the New York State Public Service Commission. The storm left 10,638 homes and businesses without power in New Jersey and knocked out electrical services to about 3,000 homes and businesses in Pennsylvania, officials in those states said.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/weather/02/26/winter.weather/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
USA GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLL!

USA-1
FIN-0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
66. Skyepony (Mod)
The Melbourne NWS is getting pretty jumpy about the low for Mon night/Tue. I think with good reason too. The other day we saw how the switch is being thrown & the instability that the cold has kept in check this El Nino across FL is beginning to lose it's grasp.

TUES...12Z GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z ECMWF ON TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF STRONG GULF LOW...ALBEIT SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST WITH GFS FASTER. EVEN WITH THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT IT WILL RAIN ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FL AT SOME
POINT TUESDAY...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO 60 PERCENT. REGARDING SEVERE
STORM CHANCES...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS TODAY HAVE TAKEN AN
OMINOUS TURN PORTRAYING A 70 KNOT 850 MB JET CROSSING EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUES MORNING. 00Z ECMWF WAS NOT AS STRONG BUT STILL HAD A
RESPECTABLE 40-50 KNOT JET OVER THE AREA. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WITH
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE INSTABILITY. SYSTEMS THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THIS SEASON HAVE STRUGGLED WITH MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY DUE
TO COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASSES CONTINUALLY PLUNGING DEEP INTO THE
GULF...RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOLER SSTS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING GULF LOWS. AS WE MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM WINTER AND
CLOSER TO SPRING...THIS WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR AS
AIRMASSES ARE NOT AS COLD TO START WITH AND SSTS GRADUALLY WARM. IN
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO...HAVE NOTED A LARGE POOL OF
CAPE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER
LOOP CURRENT WATERS OF THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE SQUALL LINE DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT SOME POINT MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN RACING TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE CAN MODIFY
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN THE SEVERITY OF THE
LINE. BEING 4 DAYS AWAY CURRENTLY...THIS IS A VERY TOUGH QUESTION TO
ANSWER...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....VAN DYKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1:50PM CST 2/26/10 NWS NYC, NY Snowfall update link below. Totals from 3" on Eastern LI to 32" in Westchester Co, NY.

No update from Central Park, NY, still at 20.8":
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
But, New Hampshire got the big wind:



IOSN3 Buoy Observation off the coast of NH at the height of the storm, very IMPRESSIVE!!
02 25 11:00 pm ENE 67 78 - - - - 28.82 -0.40 42.3 - 42.1 - - -

67KT-77 MPH
78KT-90 MPH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEwxguy:
59.
And they were fighting a major hotel fire in Hampton Beach area at the height of the storm when the winds were the strongest.

Saw that...lost a whole city block is my understanding.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
59.
And they were fighting a major hotel fire in Hampton Beach area at the height of the storm when the winds were the strongest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting postitcast:
Quite a storm in the Northeast but I don't think it bombed as quickly perhaps as was originally forecasted. It however is going to be a miserable storm as it has parked itself in the Northeast and will stay there and basically spin itself down.

The storm wounnd up from a 987MB L at about 11am CST on 2-25-10 to a 972/976 Double L at about 12 Midnight CST 2-26-10.

The Low is slowly weakening, but will be a major player till about 6AM CST on 2-27-10 before the steadier snowfall becomes snow showers.

At 987MB at 12Noon CST 2-25-10. Unfortunately, that NCEP/HPC map is no longer availiable.

At 972MB L at 12MIDNIGHT CST 2-26-10
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
From south of the east end of Long Island:


Yes, that really is a calm period near the minimum pressure, not a data issue...seeing the same for a number of obs in the area.


Interesting...
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
But, New Hampshire got the big wind:

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
From south of the east end of Long Island:


Yes, that really is a calm period near the minimum pressure, not a data issue...seeing the same for a number of obs in the area.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quite a storm in the Northeast but I don't think it bombed as quickly perhaps as was originally forecasted. It however is going to be a miserable storm as it has parked itself in the Northeast and will stay there and basically spin itself down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link to the 1:45PM EST Snowfall Totals from NWS NYC, NY:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like still a guessing game on next week's Gulf low, excerpt from the EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION


12Z GFS CONTS ITS FAST SFC TREND COMPARED TO ALL OTHER MODELS WITH
THE TIMING OF THE GLFMEX/SERN SEABOARD LOW RESULTING IN A LOW
ABOUT 180 NM NW OF ITS ENS MEAN AND OTHER MODEL POSITIONS AND IS
AGAIN RULED OUT AS A SOLUTION OVER ERN CONUS. UKMET TRACK IS WELL
EAST OF ITS PRIOR RUN WELL OFF THE US COAST WHILE CMC IS ALSO
FASTER AND ABOUT 180 NM NE OF ITS PRIOR POSITION FOR DAY 5. LATEST
12Z ECMWF ALSO FASTER AND ABOUT 200 NM NE OF ITS EARLIER FORECAST.
INDIVIDUAL RUN DETAILS WILL CONTINUE AT THE MID LEVEL AND SFC WELL
INTO THE SHORT RANGE AND THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY TRENDS
AT THIS TIME
. NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS FROM MORNING PRELIMS.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10836
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
low on east coast all done precip drying up


Oh this is far from over for Long Island...

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
12 Z GFS took away our cold-enough-to-support snain or snizzle for tomorrow...was close. (18 Z will prolly give it back...LOL.)

And the next one from 12 Z GFS, valid Monday night:


(Ike, Pcola Dan and Doug? Could it be?)

Love this ENSO/PDO combination...(I expect many in the northeast might disagree)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Central Park is up to 20.8" at 1 p.m. Link

Good catch, 20.8" is the 4th largest snow event. And the snow continues to fall!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Central Park is up to 20.8" at 1 p.m. Link


Everytime I see the reports from New York,I'm amazed,I'm up here near Boston with bare ground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
low on east coast all done precip drying up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting downdraugh24:
THANKS A LOT '' atmoaggie''
No prob
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
THANKS A LOT '' atmoaggie''
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seflagamma:
Does anyone know if the long range forcast for March will be any warmer???

especially for those of us in South Florida??




On a less scientic note, there is still plenty of cold air in the freezer. In the Great White North at 11:00 am today, our temp was 8 F which is 16 F below the AVERAGE NORMAL HIGH for today. The golf clubs are still in the garage !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post 41.
There have been some reports yes, but nothing consistent.
go to 'trinidadandtobagonews.com' and there are news features there. One talks about yesterdays record breaking 98F.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Record Report
Statement as of 12:21 PM EST on February 26, 2010


... Record monthly maximum snowfall set at Central Park NY...

An all time monthly record snowfall of 35.9 inches was set at
Central Park NY as of 12:00 PM. This breaks the all time
snowiest month record for Central Park. The old record was 30.5
inches set back in March 1896.

Snow continues to fall... and the monthly total for Central Park will
be updated as the day progresses. Central Park snow records date
back to 1869.


Please refer to pnsokx statements for the latest available Central
Park snowfall.

I believe the snowfall total from this storm from Central Park, NYC, NY is 19.9".

I took yesterday's snow totals, 9.4" and added the difference between today's monthly snowfall record and yesterday's month to date totals!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Greetings.
Please send (in small, manageable quantities), some cold weather. Thanks.
Currently 96f. Been over 95 every day for days.
Whew!
BAH!!!

Is there no newspaper in trinidad reporting from this heatwave?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Record Report
Statement as of 12:21 PM EST on February 26, 2010


... Record monthly maximum snowfall set at Central Park NY...

An all time monthly record snowfall of 35.9 inches was set at
Central Park NY as of 12:00 PM. This breaks the all time
snowiest month record for Central Park. The old record was 30.5
inches set back in March 1896.

Snow continues to fall... and the monthly total for Central Park will
be updated as the day progresses. Central Park snow records date
back to 1869.


Please refer to pnsokx statements for the latest available Central
Park snowfall.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
As a matter of interest, I collect all the rainwater from the roof here.
I get approx 7' of rainfall a year (Jun-Dec). Last year was actually about 6'.
My roof is approx. 50' x 54'. So I could collect some 60,000 gals in a season.
So all I need it 50 more 1,000 gal tanks. Pretty simple.
Oh, and a 1,000 g. tank is about $2,000 TT. So $100,000 should be fine.
sigh!!

US$1.00=TT$6.00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Re: Post 34. NWS is still playing catch-up.

To clairify. I'm not down on the NWS. I think on average they do a very good job. I just don't think they should bash a privately owned business.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
I agree with your last statement there Pat. post 31
At the moment, the only consumerable that I am woefully short of is water.
According to the Emergency Schedule published last week by the Authorities, I am to get water in the Mains from Wednesday 11:00pm, to Thursday 6:00am. 7hrs of water per week!!!. My connection from the mains is 3/4". (this is the Regulation size)
Needless to say, we got NONE on Wed. last.
In response to my queries, I was told that the Complaints Department will "certainly look into the matter. Have a good day".
I am not hopefull, and I am today pumping from my concrete pond where I have about 10,000 gals (and some Tilapia fish), into my cistern. Will treat this with some chlorine, and use for showering, laundry etc. All grey water to go on plants around the house. The 1,000 gals I have in tanks is for cooking, drinking etc.
Will be putting in additional tanks when it starts to rain......


Good luck with all that...sounds bad nuff.

Be sure to hydrate yerself too pottery.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127358
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree with your last statement there Pat. post 31
At the moment, the only consumerable that I am woefully short of is water.
According to the Emergency Schedule published last week by the Authorities, I am to get water in the Mains from Wednesday 11:00pm, to Thursday 6:00am. 7hrs of water per week!!!. My connection from the mains is 3/4". (this is the Regulation size)
Needless to say, we got NONE on Wed. last.
In response to my queries, I was told that the Complaints Department will "certainly look into the matter. Have a good day".
I am not hopefull, and I am today pumping from my concrete pond where I have about 10,000 gals (and some Tilapia fish), into my cistern. Will treat this with some chlorine, and use for showering, laundry etc. All grey water to go on plants around the house. The 1,000 gals I have in tanks is for cooking, drinking etc.
Will be putting in additional tanks when it starts to rain......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1215 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AN OCEANIC STORM MAY IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NYC/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTH. HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW OVER LI SOUND AND SW CT...WHICH IS
SLOWLY ROTATING SOUTHWESTWARD. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IN
NYC AND IMMEDIATE SUBURBS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

UPDATES JUST SENT TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS.

WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE CITY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
NOW ACROSS LI WHERE PEAK GUSTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 30KT. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS SWD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWNWARD.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS MAJOR LOW WILL MEANDER INVOF THE CWA THRU TNGT.
AS PREV MENTIONED...DO NOT TRUST THE MODEL DATA AND HAVE BUMPED UP
QPF. ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH OCCLUDED SYSTEM.

WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL TOTALS...HAVE BUMPED UP ERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY
LONG ISLAND. ALSO RAMPED UP NW INTERIOR WITH 30 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS
LIKELY.


FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE TODAY AS OVERNIGHT DATA FLOWS
IN. WITH THE HVY SN CURRENTLY OVER LI...4 TO 8 MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE VICINITY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LIKELY POPS. SURFACE LOW THEN HEADS NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER H5 LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CWA THE DURING THIS TIME FOR AT LEAST CHC POPS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THEN REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR A
CONTINUED CHC OF PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. NOT A LOT
OF QPF DURING THIS TIME...AND PRECIP WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ITS
STEADIEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE.

FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PREFERRED THE COOLER NAM MOS
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW DOWNWARD TWEAKS AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN RUNNING
TOO WARM LATELY...AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROBABLY MODERATE SLOWLY AT
BEST AS LONG AS WE HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY.

FOR PRECIP TYPE...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HEIGHTS MAY GET JUST WARM ENOUGH IN A FEW
SPOTS FOR RAIN TO MIX IN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY...BUT
SNOW SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TYPE. WITH THAT SAID...BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW WOULD BE ON MONDAY.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT CONSIDERING LOW QPF AMOUNTS AND
DAYTIME TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. MAYBE A HALF INCH TO INCH ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA DURING
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IF ANY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY KEEPS THE REGION DRY ON TUESDAY...BUT WEAK
LIFT MAY TRIGGER A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
ANOTHER STORM TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SCRAPE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WITH QPF WITH THE STORM...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN "HIDDEN" SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast Model, NAM



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127358
Quoting pottery:
Greetings.
Please send (in small, manageable quantities), some cold weather. Thanks.
Currently 96f. Been over 95 every day for days.
Whew!
BAH!!!


Oh you, rubbing in it aren't we??? LOL

I will glady take some 90's... I did not mind those temps last summer when we went into high 90's everyday for months!

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40879
Quoting pottery:
Nice images Pat.

And look, at between 10 and 20 west, just above the Equator.
Do you think I should board up yet?
LOL



Naaaah,..

...just review ones plan and stock up on the consumables.

2010 is going to be a Bumpy one Im feeling.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127358
Nice images Pat.

And look, at between 10 and 20 west, just above the Equator.
Do you think I should board up yet?
LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127358
Greetings.
Please send (in small, manageable quantities), some cold weather. Thanks.
Currently 96f. Been over 95 every day for days.
Whew!
BAH!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127358
Quoting Seastep:Atmo - wu mail
ping
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting downdraugh24:
hello every one !Does someone know a website that give trainning to meteorologist?thank u

This one is number one, but rather technical: http://www.meted.ucar.edu/
(Registration is free)

This one has a little more in layman terms, somewhat technical: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
hello every one !Does someone know a website that give trainning to meteorologist?thank u
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You guys that are so down on Accuweather, consider this. They sale a product that their competitor gives away for free. If their product is not superior, the free-market will vote with their dollars and Accuweather will cease to exist. NOAA and the NWS did in fact publically bash them for hyping a storm that now the NWS and NOAA are now calling a "Snowacane". If anything Accuweather was more on top of it and NOAA and the NWS played "catch-up". Any way you slice it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atmo - wu mail
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 72 - 22

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
77 °F
Partly Cloudy