Heavy snow, rain, and flooding for the Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on February 25, 2010

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The winter of 2009-2010 continues its relentless onslaught over the U.S. today, as a powerful low pressure system intensifying along the East Coast brings heavy snow, flooding rains, and high winds to New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The storm has already dropped more than two feet of snow over Eastern New York near Albany, and surrounding regions of Western Massachusetts and Southern Vermont. These regions are now seeing rain mixed in with the snow, which will limit further accumulations to 1 - 3 inches. Farther east, flooding is a concern for most of Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, southern New Hampshire, and portions of western Maine, where heavy rainfall of 1 - 3 inches on top of a snow pack with a high water content has created runoff that has already swollen many rivers to flood stage. Heavy snow is the main concern over southeast New York, northern New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania. The unusually slow-moving storm is expected to drop snow amounts of up to 18" in the Pocono Mountains of northeast Pennsylvania, and in northern New Jersey. New York City, whose 30.5" of snow so far this winter is 13" above average for this date, could get up to a foot of wet, heavy snow. Philadelphia's 73" of snow for the season will get an 8 - 12" boost from the storm, taking their record snowiest winter even further into record territory. Wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph in combination with the very wet, heavy snow will make power outages a problem over much of the region.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image at 9:30am EST Thursday, February 25, 2010 showing today's Northeast U.S. snowstorm. Image credit: NASA GSFC GOES project.

Some selected storm-total snowfall amounts, from Tuesday morning through 10am EST today, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

...CONNECTICUT...
BURLINGTON 10.0
NEW HARTFORD 3.8 W 9.0

...KENTUCKY...
OVEN FORK 1 NE 5.0
BLEDSOE 2 SE 4.0

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SAVOY 28.5
ROWE 25.0
CHESTERFIELD 24.0
ASHFIELD 23.6
HEATH 22.0
SHELBURNE 22.0
PLAINFIELD 21.5
PITTSFIELD 20.0
BECKET 19.8
CHESTER 19.5
BLANDFORD 19.0
ASHBURNHAM 16.8
LANESBOROUGH 16.0
NORTH OTIS 16.0
NEW ASHFORD 13.0
WORCESTER 10.7

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
EAST LEMPSTER 20.0
WASHINGTON 18.5
PETERBOROUGH 18.0
RANDOLF 17.6
GREENFIELD 16.0
NEWPORT 15.3
WILTON 14.0
BENNINGTON 13.0
WAPOLE 12.9
WEST CHESTERFIELD 10.8
LEMPSTER 10.0

...NEW YORK...
ALTAMONT 26.5
WESTERLO 26.0
WILLARD MTN BASE 25.0
NORTH HEBRON 24.0
MEDUSA 23.0
MORIAH 22.5
TABORTON 22.0
DURHAM 20.0
PORTER CORNERS 20.0
ROXBURY 18.9
PHOENICIA 18.5
CHATHAM CENTER 18.0
SCHENECTADY 15.0
ALBANY 12.4
BINGHAMTON 10.5

...OHIO...
CARROLOTON 5.5

...PENNSYLVANIA...
PONOCO PEAK LAKE 13.0
HAWLEY 3.8 NE 11.0
WANTAGE 11.0
PLEASANT MOUNT 10.0
DINGMANS FERRY 3.9 WSW 9.2
MILANVILLE 1.5 SE 8.9
SAYLORSBURG 8.5
BEEMERVILLE 8.0
EAST STROUDSBURG 8.0
THOMPSON 8.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLVILLE 6.5
WEST GLOCESTER 5.1
WOONSOCKET 0.3 W 3.4

...TENNESSEE...
APPALACHIA 3.0
ROAN MOUNTAIN 3.0

Update on this Saturday's major winter storm in Europe
Computer forecast models continue to forecast the development of a powerful winter storm that will rapidly intensify Saturday morning into a meteorological "bomb" that will bring high winds and flooding rains to Portugal, northern Spain, and possibly France. However, today's model runs are less aggressive in deepening the storm, and no longer call for the storm to be as intense as last year's Winter Storm Klaus. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra. Last night's 00Z (7pm EST) run of the ECMWF model and GFS model called for Saturday's storm to have 974 - 976 mb central pressure. Saturday's storm still has the potential to be plenty damaging, as winds of tropical storm force with gusts to hurricane force should affect a large swath of Portugal and northern Spain.


Figure 2. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/25/10 run of the GFS model for 18 GMT Saturday for surface winds. The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure of 974 mb. Sustained winds just below hurricane force of 60 - 75 mph (green colors) are expected offshore from Portugal. Image was generated using our wundermap for Spain with the "model" layer turned on.

Next post
My next post will be Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tear Drop (suzi46)
this frozen drop was suspended on the thinnest filament of ice over our frozen brook..so very delicate and beautiful
Tear Drop
()

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Quoting Patrap:
..Looks like nuther trip to McComb for it seems Snowmageddon 2010 continues.

Middendorf's on a Friday evening is fried Catfish Heaven as well.

Two weeks ago tomorrow morning,McComb,Miss.


None better.

I really don't have any extra room to put ya up overnight, but you would be welcome to come visit in Covington...
(especially if you bring some Middendorf's...j/k)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129795
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Home again. Been trying to call you on the same number you called me from Oz.


Will try again, soon.
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Quoting Grothar:


Just don't knock over the furniture with all this running around boys, play nice!!


haha are you back in Florida?
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Quoting tornadodude:
alright, youre it again


Just don't knock over the furniture with all this running around boys, play nice!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
..Looks like nuther trip to McComb for it seems Snowmageddon 2010 continues.

Middendorf's on a Friday evening is fried Catfish Heaven as well.

Two weeks ago tomorrow morning,McComb,Miss.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129795
Quoting Drakoen:


The GFS 18z sounding looks a lot better for you. Looks like it's gonna be a close call between rain/snow mix and pure snow. The dewpoint depression in the 950mb layer would probably lead to evaporative cooling to the wet bulb temperature. Nice saturation in the dendritic growth zone near 550mb too.

Yay. I think I can say that the kid's soccer game at 8:45 Sat. morn is prolly a no-go. (I really do enjoy watching him play, dang, that time is exactly why I didn't do that when I was a kid...WhyTH can't all kid's sport be played sometime after 10am?)

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:

Nice. Hadn't been there in quite a while.

18 Z likes our chances a bit more:



And, wow, cooled at the surface substantially over the 12 Z:



The GFS 18z sounding looks a lot better for you. Looks like it's gonna be a close call between rain/snow mix and pure snow. The dewpoint depression in the 950mb layer would probably lead to evaporative cooling to the wet bulb temperature. Nice saturation in the dendritic growth zone near 550mb too.
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661
fxus64 klix 252141
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
341 PM CST Thursday Feb 25 2010


Short term...


A vigorous short wave trough will descend from the plains states
into the Gulf south starting tomorrow into Saturday. This clipper
like system will bring increasing cloud cover the area tonight.
A decent cold pool will also remain in place across the region
tonight as a deep long wave trough dominates the eastern third
nation. As the short wave dives into Texas a region of enhanced
lift on the Lee side of the upper level trough along with a strong
thermal gradient across Texas will allow for a development of
surface low late tonight into early tomorrow. This low will track
to the southeast throughout tomorrow...allowing for southeast
winds and an onshore flow to set up across the County Warning Area. Strong low
level moisture advection will take place tonight into tomorrow
morning...with showers developing by the afternoon across the
forecast area. These showers will be driven by a region of
enhanced positive vorticity advection and lift across the Gulf south.


Heading into tomorrow night...the short wave trough will swing
through the Gulf south...with the surface low tracking across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Initially...rain is expected across the
forecast area...but a change over to a wintry mix of
rain...sleet...and snow is expected after midnight over the
northern half of the County Warning Area. After reviewing model soundings a deep
cold pool associated with the main upper level system will track
across the region. This will drop the temperatures aloft into a
favorable range for snow formation. In addition...the low levels
will see some cold air advection take hold on the back side of the
low. This colder airmass will allow for a quick change over to
snow and sleet over southwest Mississippi and far northern
sections of the Florida parishes. Along the I-12 corridor...a mix
of rain and snow is expected. For areas south of
I-12...temperatures will be far too warm for any wintry
precipitation. Fortunately...all of the precipitation will be
light...with little if any accumulation expected over northern
zones. The mix should come to an end by noon...as strong negative
vorticity advection and subsidence takes hold. Deep layer
ridging will dominate the area on Sunday...with clear skies and
cooler than normal temperatures expected.


Long term...


The deep layer ridging will quickly slide to the east Sunday
night...as another strong upper level low moves into the Southern
Plains.
Strong ascent on the southeast side of the system in a
region of enhanced difluence...combined with a sharp thermal
gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico will allow for a very
strong Gulf low to form in the western Gulf Sunday night.
At the
same time...a pool of cold air will remain across the forecast
area. Increasing cloud cover is expected Sunday night as the
strong upper level low approaches from the west and southwest flow
in the middle-levels rides up and over a more stable and colder
airmass at the surface. With strong isentropic forcing in the middle-
levels and high Omega values aloft...expect rain to overspread the
entire forecast area on Monday. This broad precipitation field will
continue into Monday night as the low tracks through the northern
Gulf of Mexico and begins to deepen rapidly over the northeast
Gulf and the southeastern Atlantic Seaboard. As the low
deepens...colder air will be drawn south into the region late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Additionally...the main
cold pool associated with the upper level low will be passing
through. It appears that a change over to wintry precipitation could take
place Monday night into Tuesday. It is far too early to determine
the exact timing and type of precipitation along with any accumulation
amounts. This next system will have to be monitored carefully
through the weekend.


Strong subsidence and dry air advection will take hold of the County Warning Area
Tuesday night with rapidly clearing skies and cold temperatures
expected. Colder than normal readings and dry conditions will
through the end of the week as upper level ridging remains over
the area.


&&
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129795
Asia swelters in heatwave
FEBRUARY is on track to become Singapore's driest month, as well as one of the hottest on record.

Peninsular Malaysia is experiencing water shortages, from the Kedah rice fields in the north to parts of Johor in the south, where taps ran dry over the Chinese New Year.

China is reporting severe drought and a shortage of drinking water, affecting millions in the south-western part of the country.

And in the Philippines, the largest corn-producing region is withering under a blazing sun.

Weather experts say the region is once again grappling with the severe effects of the El Nino phenomenon, which sparked forest fires and the haze more than 10 years ago.

This time, the parched conditions are causing grief to farmers and raising concerns about water shortages.
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_495192.html
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
And 18 Z GFS gives *some* snow depth all the way to the coast along most of MS, AL, and Lower AL (a.k.a. Panhandle FL)

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Mammoth iceberg could alter ocean circulation: study

Penguins (C) drift on an ice floe beneath a cathedral iceberg in the Southern Ocean in the Australian Antarctic Territory in 2006. An iceberg the size of Luxembourg knocked loose from the Antarctic continent earlier this month could disrupt the ocean currents driving weather patterns around the globe, researchers said Thursday.

An iceberg the size of Luxembourg knocked loose from the Antarctic continent earlier this month could disrupt the ocean currents driving weather patterns around the globe, researchers said Thursday.

While the impact would not be felt for decades or longer, a slowdown in the production of colder, dense water could result in less temperate winters in the north Atlantic, they said.

The 2550 square-kilometre (985 square-mile) block broke off on February 12 or 13 from the Mertz Glacier Tongue, a 160-kilometer spit of floating ice protruding into the Southern Ocean from East Antarctica due south of Melbourne, researchers said.

Some 400 metres (1300 feet) thick, the iceberg could fill Sydney Harbour more than 100 times over.
http://www.physorg.com/news186339017.html
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
alright, youre it again
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Oh yeah i live on top of a hill south of syracuse so yeah we are getting it right now but not as intense as later tonight will bring us.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yea I love using them. It's from twister data.

Nice. Hadn't been there in quite a while.

18 Z likes our chances a bit more:



And, wow, cooled at the surface substantially over the 12 Z:

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Has the tuesday event come back yet? I know GFS dropped it at 0Z, but has it switched back?
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Quoting mikester:
Latest from noaa:
Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
426 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

...MAJOR WINTER STORM STRIKING CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT...

.A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT CREATING
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

NYZ016>018-025-044-045-055-056-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-
260530-
/O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100226T1200Z/
SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-TIOGA-
BROOME-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SENECA FALLS...AUBURN...SYRACUSE...
ITHACA...CORTLAND...NORWICH...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON...MONTROSE...
TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...
HONESDALE
426 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY.

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOWFALL RATES RANGING
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...THE SNOW
MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION... AND POSSIBLY SOME
OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT...STORM TOTALS OF
10 TO 18 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
FOUND ON THE HILLTOPS WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR THIS STORM WILL BE BOTH THE HEAVY
WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...AND INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY
THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH. THE WINDS WILL NOT ONLY
CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT ALSO COMBINE WITH THE
WEIGHT OF THE SNOW TO BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. POWER
OUTAGES COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD.

IN ADDITION...WITH A HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED...WHEN SHOVELING...
REMEMBER TO NOT OVEREXERT YOURSELF BY TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM. ONLY
TRAVEL IN AN ABSOLUTE EMERGENCY. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
BE WITHOUT POWER FOR SOME TIME SHOULD POWER OUTAGES BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU HAVE AT LEAST
3 DAYS OF SUPPLIES...INCLUDING FOOD...BOTTLED WATER AND MEDICINES
IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED AT HOME.


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Oh yeah already creeping up to a foot of snow here. We lack about 4" but i believe we will be well over that before this storm is done. Yep i am really happy for snow but i almost didn't have a snowmobile to enjoy it. Stuck a stud off the track threw the front cooler. So i have bypassed it for the rest of the season but it is going to cost me a pretty penny to fix it right over the summer.
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Home again. Been trying to call you on the same number you called me from Oz.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Back atcha


alright, working on it, might be a little while
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#146, I know your jumping up and down like a "Happy Snoopy", doing the "Snoopy Dance"
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha your turn


Back atcha
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yep. Frosty, but snizzle...


Parts of the NYC area are experiencing snow, changing to snizzle, snain, slop (which is a combo of rain, sleet, snow, fog, drizzle), sneet, snogizzle (new category, snow, fog and drizzle)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Nice illustrative graphic, BTW.


Yea I love using them. It's from twister data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest from noaa:
Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
426 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

...MAJOR WINTER STORM STRIKING CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT...

.A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT CREATING
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

NYZ016>018-025-044-045-055-056-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-
260530-
/O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100226T1200Z/
SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-TIOGA-
BROOME-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SENECA FALLS...AUBURN...SYRACUSE...
ITHACA...CORTLAND...NORWICH...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON...MONTROSE...
TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...
HONESDALE
426 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY.

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOWFALL RATES RANGING
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...THE SNOW
MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION... AND POSSIBLY SOME
OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT...STORM TOTALS OF
10 TO 18 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
FOUND ON THE HILLTOPS WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR THIS STORM WILL BE BOTH THE HEAVY
WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...AND INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY
THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH. THE WINDS WILL NOT ONLY
CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT ALSO COMBINE WITH THE
WEIGHT OF THE SNOW TO BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. POWER
OUTAGES COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD.

IN ADDITION...WITH A HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED...WHEN SHOVELING...
REMEMBER TO NOT OVEREXERT YOURSELF BY TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THIS A VERY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM. ONLY
TRAVEL IN AN ABSOLUTE EMERGENCY. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
BE WITHOUT POWER FOR SOME TIME SHOULD POWER OUTAGES BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU HAVE AT LEAST
3 DAYS OF SUPPLIES...INCLUDING FOOD...BOTTLED WATER AND MEDICINES
IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED AT HOME.
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Quoting LongStrangeTrip:
Watch E! News tonight, before and after your local news, for a story on Portlight's efforts on the ground in Haiti!! We hosted Bill Rancic, original "Apprentice" to Donald Trump, as he visited Haitian survivors and helped to med-evac three young boys to US hospitals. Check it out...and help us keep helping in Haiti!

Donate to Portlight!

COOL!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Watch E! News tonight, before and after your local news, for a story on Portlight's efforts on the ground in Haiti!! We hosted Bill Rancic, original "Apprentice" to Donald Trump, as he visited Haitian survivors and helped to med-evac three young boys to US hospitals. Check it out...and help us keep helping in Haiti!

Donate to Portlight!
Member Since: July 10, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 412
Quoting Drakoen:
Atmo your main problem is gonna be the PBL temperatures which is above freezing. Even evaporative cooling to the wet bulb temperature would still keep temperatures above freezing from 925mb to the surface. There is a nice saturation layer above the PBL which is subfreezing. The sounding for BTR support a rain/snow mix at this time.


Nice illustrative graphic, BTW.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Drakoen:
Atmo your main problem is gonna be the PBL temperatures which is above freezing. Even evaporative cooling to the wet bulb temperature would still keep temperatures above freezing from 925mb to the surface. There is a nice saturation layer above the PBL which is subfreezing. The sounding for BTR support a rain/snow mix at this time.


Yep. Frosty, but snizzle...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
HPC/NCEP forecast the "Snowicane" to intensify to 973MB/18Z GFS puts her at 978MB:

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Quoting quakeman55:
18Z GFS 42 hr...



48 hr...


At first blush, that looks frosty north of Lake P
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Atmo your main problem is gonna be the PBL temperatures which is above freezing. Even evaporative cooling to the wet bulb temperature would still keep temperatures above freezing from 925mb to the surface. There is a nice saturation layer above the PBL which is subfreezing. The sounding for BTR support a rain/snow mix at this time.

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Quoting CycloneOz:
Tag, you're it.


haha your turn
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A portion of the NWS Area Forecast Discussion out of NYC (Upton, NY) updated at 3:54PM CST

FOR SNOW TOTALS...EXPECT 15-20 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE HUDSON...9 TO 16
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FROM NYC NORTH THROUGH
PUTNAM COUNTY...6 TO 11 INCHES ACROSS NASSAU AND FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS NEW HAVEN COUNTY...3
TO 7 INCHES IN MIDDLESEX AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTIES...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN NEW LONDON COUNTY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

LESS CERTAIN ABOUT ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOW ON SATURDAY...SO
HAVE NOT EXPANDED HEADLINES...OR PUT ANY APPRECIABLE MEASURABLE
SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THEN. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH ALTER
SHIFTS...THIS MAY BE DONE IN THE FUTURE.
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18Z GFS 42 hr...



48 hr...

Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
Quoting Drakoen:


The only limiting factor would be your forecast highs on Saturday.
It's gonna be close but experience says the snow line will stay north and we'll get the same cold drizzle we got last time...
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 872
18Z GFS RUN, SURFACE MAP FOR FR 2-26-10 @06Z
978MB BOMB OFF S LI:
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Tag, you're it.
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Quoting Drakoen:


I like your chances there atmo

The Skew-t forecast looks to warm for Louisiana on the GFS 12z

I think that is what the NWS discussion is covering...

Seeing the dry come in, leaves some chance for evap cooling, but, yeah, this one for Slidell *is* a bit too warm.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Latest Surface Map, the "Snowicane" is winding up 320 mi SE of LI, moving N at 30MPH:
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Poor Mid Atlantic, NorthEast and New England!

The so-called "Snowicane", is "warming-up, winding up", about 320 miles SE of LI, getting ready to do her "Winter Olympics Pirouette" across the Tri-State Area (NY, NJ & CT) later tonight into Friday.

The latest NWS update is calling for 15-25" of snow NW of NYC, about 7-14" for NYC and 6-11" for west and central LI.

The winds will start picking up this evening, into the early morning, especially along the coast and at higher elevations. They're calling for 30-40MPH winds in New England into the eastern half of NY state, just north of NYC.

Coastal locations may see wind gusts to 55-60MPH. The NWS met out of Silver Springs, MD even mentioned the possibility of "Hurricane Force" wind gusts later today!

And here in SE Arlington, TX it's a balmy 57F, just cloudy, with S winds between 20-35MPH!!
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
Yep, understood Drak, possible but not likely. Been here 29 years and the warming effect of high 50's/low 60's water all around me pushes the snow line north, usually to I-10. If it were even 5 degrees colder, I'd plan a trip south, but barely cold enough to snow air rarely survives this close to the water. LOL!!, as I was typing that, I get a hard freeze warning e-mail from Santa Rosa county...


The only limiting factor would be your forecast highs on Saturday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CycloneOz:
Yo tornadodude!

Your reply is another matter altogether.

I can run some things by you in my new e-mail reply that's coming.

Standby....


oh ok

thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Was 26 last night at my house along Lake P in SE LA...
35 this morning on Navarre Beach...
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 872
Yo tornadodude!

Your reply is another matter altogether.

I can run some things by you in my new e-mail reply that's coming.

Standby....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Snow for NOLA, Biloxi, Mobile, Tallahassee!?!? Saturday? Hmmm. We'll see what 18 Z run says soon...



Looks like a decently moderate snowfall...enough to accumulate.
(Was heavier to the west half in frame before)


The Skew-t forecast looks to warm for Louisiana on the GFS 12z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And my discussion:

"HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. INITIALLY...RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT A CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER REVIEWING MODEL SOUNDINGS A DEEP
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO A
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR SNOW FORMATION. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVELS
WILL SEE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW AND SLEET OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PARISHES. ALONG THE I-12 CORRIDOR...A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-12...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAR TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION."

Odd. That GFS run in 121 doesn't support "far too warm" and surely isn't an overnight low of 42, as currently forecast for me...north of I-12
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting CycloneOz:


Reply sent. Great idea, btw. But you'll see, the obstacles for a 2010 run at it make it untenable.


back at ya man,

yea, I see your point, but I was planning on doing the funding myself, just kinda branching out from XtremeHurricanes.com

but only time will tell :p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Yep, understood Drak, possible but not likely. Been here 29 years and the warming effect of high 50's/low 60's water all around me pushes the snow line north, usually to I-10. If it were even 5 degrees colder, I'd plan a trip south, but barely cold enough to snow air rarely survives this close to the water. LOL!!, as I was typing that, I get a hard freeze warning e-mail from Santa Rosa county...

Was 26 last night at my house along Lake P in SE LA...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Snow for NOLA, Biloxi, Mobile, Tallahassee!?!? Saturday? Hmmm. We'll see what 18 Z run says soon...



Looks like a decently moderate snowfall...enough to accumulate.
(Was heavier to the west half in frame before)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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