Heavy snow, rain, and flooding for the Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on February 25, 2010

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The winter of 2009-2010 continues its relentless onslaught over the U.S. today, as a powerful low pressure system intensifying along the East Coast brings heavy snow, flooding rains, and high winds to New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The storm has already dropped more than two feet of snow over Eastern New York near Albany, and surrounding regions of Western Massachusetts and Southern Vermont. These regions are now seeing rain mixed in with the snow, which will limit further accumulations to 1 - 3 inches. Farther east, flooding is a concern for most of Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, southern New Hampshire, and portions of western Maine, where heavy rainfall of 1 - 3 inches on top of a snow pack with a high water content has created runoff that has already swollen many rivers to flood stage. Heavy snow is the main concern over southeast New York, northern New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania. The unusually slow-moving storm is expected to drop snow amounts of up to 18" in the Pocono Mountains of northeast Pennsylvania, and in northern New Jersey. New York City, whose 30.5" of snow so far this winter is 13" above average for this date, could get up to a foot of wet, heavy snow. Philadelphia's 73" of snow for the season will get an 8 - 12" boost from the storm, taking their record snowiest winter even further into record territory. Wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph in combination with the very wet, heavy snow will make power outages a problem over much of the region.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image at 9:30am EST Thursday, February 25, 2010 showing today's Northeast U.S. snowstorm. Image credit: NASA GSFC GOES project.

Some selected storm-total snowfall amounts, from Tuesday morning through 10am EST today, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

...CONNECTICUT...
BURLINGTON 10.0
NEW HARTFORD 3.8 W 9.0

...KENTUCKY...
OVEN FORK 1 NE 5.0
BLEDSOE 2 SE 4.0

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SAVOY 28.5
ROWE 25.0
CHESTERFIELD 24.0
ASHFIELD 23.6
HEATH 22.0
SHELBURNE 22.0
PLAINFIELD 21.5
PITTSFIELD 20.0
BECKET 19.8
CHESTER 19.5
BLANDFORD 19.0
ASHBURNHAM 16.8
LANESBOROUGH 16.0
NORTH OTIS 16.0
NEW ASHFORD 13.0
WORCESTER 10.7

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
EAST LEMPSTER 20.0
WASHINGTON 18.5
PETERBOROUGH 18.0
RANDOLF 17.6
GREENFIELD 16.0
NEWPORT 15.3
WILTON 14.0
BENNINGTON 13.0
WAPOLE 12.9
WEST CHESTERFIELD 10.8
LEMPSTER 10.0

...NEW YORK...
ALTAMONT 26.5
WESTERLO 26.0
WILLARD MTN BASE 25.0
NORTH HEBRON 24.0
MEDUSA 23.0
MORIAH 22.5
TABORTON 22.0
DURHAM 20.0
PORTER CORNERS 20.0
ROXBURY 18.9
PHOENICIA 18.5
CHATHAM CENTER 18.0
SCHENECTADY 15.0
ALBANY 12.4
BINGHAMTON 10.5

...OHIO...
CARROLOTON 5.5

...PENNSYLVANIA...
PONOCO PEAK LAKE 13.0
HAWLEY 3.8 NE 11.0
WANTAGE 11.0
PLEASANT MOUNT 10.0
DINGMANS FERRY 3.9 WSW 9.2
MILANVILLE 1.5 SE 8.9
SAYLORSBURG 8.5
BEEMERVILLE 8.0
EAST STROUDSBURG 8.0
THOMPSON 8.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLVILLE 6.5
WEST GLOCESTER 5.1
WOONSOCKET 0.3 W 3.4

...TENNESSEE...
APPALACHIA 3.0
ROAN MOUNTAIN 3.0

Update on this Saturday's major winter storm in Europe
Computer forecast models continue to forecast the development of a powerful winter storm that will rapidly intensify Saturday morning into a meteorological "bomb" that will bring high winds and flooding rains to Portugal, northern Spain, and possibly France. However, today's model runs are less aggressive in deepening the storm, and no longer call for the storm to be as intense as last year's Winter Storm Klaus. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra. Last night's 00Z (7pm EST) run of the ECMWF model and GFS model called for Saturday's storm to have 974 - 976 mb central pressure. Saturday's storm still has the potential to be plenty damaging, as winds of tropical storm force with gusts to hurricane force should affect a large swath of Portugal and northern Spain.


Figure 2. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/25/10 run of the GFS model for 18 GMT Saturday for surface winds. The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure of 974 mb. Sustained winds just below hurricane force of 60 - 75 mph (green colors) are expected offshore from Portugal. Image was generated using our wundermap for Spain with the "model" layer turned on.

Next post
My next post will be Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tear Drop (suzi46)
this frozen drop was suspended on the thinnest filament of ice over our frozen brook..so very delicate and beautiful
Tear Drop
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Lots of action from our Sun recently. This is a CME as viewed from SOHO yesterday,,,L8R :)

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting quakeman55:

I suspect that should be changing soon...



Late for the party.

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Quoting all4hurricanes:

the lows are at 28-33 highs for the night might be enough for rain

But the precip is expected to last through the night and into Saturday morning, so there would be precip during the time when the temps reach their min...and assuming they are in the 28-33 range, that would definitely yield snow. And if the GFS trends continue, this would support snow (and perhaps accumulating snow) all the way to the coast.
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Portlight.org just ran on E news with a Wunderful story from Haiti and our continued efforts there.

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Quoting Bordonaro:
Sad news, a man was killed in Central Park, NYC, NY this afternoon after a large tree branch snapped and fell on him, link to article and video below:
Link


Sad indeed. :( Our trees and branches caved to the weight of the ice storm in 1997. And I'm in Texas! Of course the hurricanes brought the trees down around here. Cats 1,2 and 3. But this goes to show it doesn't take something so drastic to pull them down. I'm sorry to hear that. :(
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
9:00 AM FST February 26 2010
================================

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.


At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11 (1000 hPa) located at 16.4S 163.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30-40 knots within 150 NM of the center in sectors from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 NM elsewhere. Position FAIR based on GOES infrared/enhanced infrared imagery with animation and AMSU pass. Depression moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Low level circulation center lies to the southwest of convection. Organization has improved significantly over the last 12 hours. Upper outflow good in all quadrants. Convective tops cooling. Moderate environment shear over system but anticioated to move into area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yiedling DT=2.5 PT=2.0 MET=2.0. FT based on PT

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Global models agree on a south southeast track with further intensification over the next 48 hours. The system expected to weaken beyond 48 hours while moving it into cooler sea surface temperature and increasing shear.

Potential for TD 11F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6-12 hours is HIGH

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 11F Will Be Released At Around 02:30AM (Friday)...


Oh for crying out loud why did they even stop issuing advisories in the first place. It wasn't ready to be downgraded....this is the same storm that developed from Invest 94P and became 17P, which is still the label for this system according to the Navy site.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
9:00 AM FST February 26 2010
================================

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.


At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11 (1000 hPa) located at 16.4S 163.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30-40 knots within 150 NM of the center in sectors from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 NM elsewhere. Position FAIR based on GOES infrared/enhanced infrared imagery with animation and AMSU pass. Depression moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Low level circulation center lies to the southwest of convection. Organization has improved significantly over the last 12 hours. Upper outflow good in all quadrants. Convective tops cooling. Moderate environment shear over system but anticioated to move into area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yiedling DT=2.5 PT=2.0 MET=2.0. FT based on PT

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Global models agree on a south southeast track with further intensification over the next 48 hours. The system expected to weaken beyond 48 hours while moving it into cooler sea surface temperature and increasing shear.

Potential for TD 11F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6-12 hours is HIGH

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 11F Will Be Released At Around 02:30AM (Friday)...
No longer 17P, huh? Reached T2.0.
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Here is IKE's forecast for Fri Night and Saturday:

Friday Night
Not as cold. Partly cloudy in the evening...then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and snow after midnight. Lows around 34. Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the north after midnight. No snow accumulation expected.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and snow in the morning...then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 54. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. No snow accumulation expected.

So NWS TLH office is catching on...waiting for MOB office to embrace GFS runs as well. It's been consistent so far...let's see if it continues.
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212. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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211. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
9:00 AM FST February 26 2010
================================

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.


At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11 (1000 hPa) located at 16.4S 163.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30-40 knots within 150 NM of the center in sectors from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 NM elsewhere. Position FAIR based on GOES infrared/enhanced infrared imagery with animation and AMSU pass. Depression moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Low level circulation center lies to the southwest of convection. Organization has improved significantly over the last 12 hours. Upper outflow good in all quadrants. Convective tops cooling. Moderate environment shear over system but anticioated to move into area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yiedling DT=2.5 PT=2.0 MET=2.0. FT based on PT

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Global models agree on a south southeast track with further intensification over the next 48 hours. The system expected to weaken beyond 48 hours while moving it into cooler sea surface temperature and increasing shear.

Potential for TD 11F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6-12 hours is HIGH

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 11F Will Be Released At Around 02:30AM (Friday)...
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Quoting quakeman55:
Look at NWS's forecast for Crestview:

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the evening...then chance of rain after midnight. Lows 28 to 33. Southeast winds around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Umm...last time I checked, doesn't water freeze at 32?

the lows are at 28-33 highs for the night might be enough for rain
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Look at NWS's forecast for Crestview:

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the evening...then chance of rain after midnight. Lows 28 to 33. Southeast winds around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Umm...last time I checked, doesn't water freeze at 32?
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Local forecasters arn't showing any love to the gfs runs that show snow anywhere near us.

I suspect that should be changing soon...
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
18z GFS still showing major snowfall around March 10:

I've noticed this winter has been very snowy. Comment, Al Gore?
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Wow, if we have any hurricanes with tracks like this winter storm, then some cities on the East Coast are in BIG trouble.

Link
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
18z GFS still showing major snowfall around March 10:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Local forecasters arn't showing any love to the gfs runs that show snow anywhere near us.
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Quoting mikester:

Yep i do. Finally we get some action up here.


Or maybe hell just froze over?
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
Ladies & Gents, she's on her way down the stairs and we're out to dinner. Since the blog is dead/slow, I'll offer a granny-bet on snow below I-10 in the FL panhandle on Saturday. I say it won't but I'll offer a port-light donation if it does. Any snow-wishers interested in matching that?



I like this idea. So, seeing as I live right at the coast just west of P'cola and about 10 miles south of I10, I'm down for $20 bucks if I see 1 flake.
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Ladies & Gents, she's on her way down the stairs and we're out to dinner. Since the blog is dead/slow, I'll offer a granny-bet on snow below I-10 in the FL panhandle on Saturday. I say it won't but I'll offer a port-light donation if it does. Any snow-wishers interested in matching that?
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> NASA's Hurricane
Web Page




The GOES-11 satellite captured in infrared image of 17P's clouds and the storm appears to be getting re-organized.
02.25.10

Tropical cyclone 17P may be a low pressure area right now, but environmental conditions have become more favorable to give it a likely comeback as a tropical storm.
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Eastern U. S. - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
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Quoting Patrap:







Hmm @ WV imagery. How will the storm interact with the dry air and lake-effect precipitation on its western side?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
It is clear from the current SSTs image that global ocean currents are slowing down. Just look at the 20C lines around the world and see how flat they are. What the weather forecasters here may have forgotten when they lowered snowfall forecasts considering the cold air was that the storm will be tapping into the Gulf Stream which will supply it with intensity and moisture.

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835





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Sad news, a man was killed in Central Park, NYC, NY this afternoon after a large tree branch snapped and fell on him, link to article and video below:
Link
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Has the tuesday event come back yet? I know GFS dropped it at 0Z, but has it switched back?


somewhat, still has the low pretty far out to sea
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Wow farther north then i thought. Good news anyways it is basically stalled right now.
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Quoting mikester:
Storm is really starting to crank it up a bit. Low must be just off the jersey shore then?


About 250 MI S of Cape Cod, MA.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Or more!! I know right know you must "feel like you're in Heaven"!!

Yep i do. Finally we get some action up here.
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NEXRAD Radar
New York City, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

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Storm is really starting to crank it up a bit. Low must be just off the jersey shore then?
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Hiya atmo...crazy weather for sure.
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Quoting mikester:
Well measured the snow on the ground right now at my house is over 2ft right now. This includes all snowfall since the melt in jan. Not bad and it will most likely be closer to 3ft when the storm passes.


Or more!! I know right know you must "feel like you're in Heaven"!!
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Well measured the snow on the ground right now at my house is over 2ft right now. This includes all snowfall since the melt in jan. Not bad and it will most likely be closer to 3ft when the storm passes.
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At 4PM CST today, "Snowicane" is at 985MB:
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No snow here in Fairfax VA but the weather man says possible gusts up to 50mph tonight those winds might best Isabel
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Quoting Patrap:
radar

In RI:



10.0 FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG PIONEER AVENUE...BELLOWS STREET AND VENTURI AVENUE IN WARWICK. SOME HOMES ARE IMPACTED ON AVERY RD AND WELLINGTON AVE IN CRANSTON.

Dang, hope no one has to deal with water-in-house
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Wow! A back-door warm front just like the one produced by the Jan. 3 storm that unexpectedly dumped 25 cm of snow at my location! That one was stronger and had multiple centers but this one is closer and slower-moving so we will see.


A back door warm front is a sign of a VERY INTENSE area of L pressure.

The "snowicane" is winding up for her "pirouette" around the NY, NJ, CT (Tri-State Area). HPC/NCEP has the L at 972MB, the 18Z GFS Run has her at 978MB within 6-12hrs!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Wow! A back-door warm front just like the one produced by the Jan. 3 storm that unexpectedly dumped 25 cm of snow at my location! That one was stronger and had multiple centers but this one is closer and slower-moving so we will see.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
further to post 161....
today the temp reached 97F at the Airport. Yesterday was 96.8.
This is Record High temps for Trinidad (11n 61w). Keep in mind that this is a small Island, with sea all around.
The sea is supposed to regulate the temps of these islands, and this temp (especially for Feb) is quite incredible.
Strong breeze, dry, hazy conditions.
The vegetation all over the island is suffering, and rivers and streams are drying up. Fires are burning in the forests.
I certainly hope that this is not how it is going to be.............
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173. A little too early to tell!!

A portion of the NWS Miami, FL Area Forecast Discussion for MO-TU next week:

MONDAY AND TUES... YET ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT FL AS IS
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. MODELS ARE
SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, HOWEVER MOST
KEEP THE TRACK FROM AROUND TAMPA TO THE BIG BEND WITH S FL IN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH EARLY TUE MORN.
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173. eddye
so will se fl get somesevere weather next week
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Quoting Patrap:
..Looks like nuther trip to McComb for it seems Snowmageddon 2010 continues.

Middendorf's on a Friday evening is fried Catfish Heaven as well.

Two weeks ago tomorrow morning,McComb,Miss.


None better.

I really don't have any extra room to put ya up overnight, but you would be welcome to come visit in Covington...
(especially if you bring some Middendorf's...j/k)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.