Heavy snow, rain, and flooding for the Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on February 25, 2010

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The winter of 2009-2010 continues its relentless onslaught over the U.S. today, as a powerful low pressure system intensifying along the East Coast brings heavy snow, flooding rains, and high winds to New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The storm has already dropped more than two feet of snow over Eastern New York near Albany, and surrounding regions of Western Massachusetts and Southern Vermont. These regions are now seeing rain mixed in with the snow, which will limit further accumulations to 1 - 3 inches. Farther east, flooding is a concern for most of Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, southern New Hampshire, and portions of western Maine, where heavy rainfall of 1 - 3 inches on top of a snow pack with a high water content has created runoff that has already swollen many rivers to flood stage. Heavy snow is the main concern over southeast New York, northern New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania. The unusually slow-moving storm is expected to drop snow amounts of up to 18" in the Pocono Mountains of northeast Pennsylvania, and in northern New Jersey. New York City, whose 30.5" of snow so far this winter is 13" above average for this date, could get up to a foot of wet, heavy snow. Philadelphia's 73" of snow for the season will get an 8 - 12" boost from the storm, taking their record snowiest winter even further into record territory. Wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph in combination with the very wet, heavy snow will make power outages a problem over much of the region.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image at 9:30am EST Thursday, February 25, 2010 showing today's Northeast U.S. snowstorm. Image credit: NASA GSFC GOES project.

Some selected storm-total snowfall amounts, from Tuesday morning through 10am EST today, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

...CONNECTICUT...
BURLINGTON 10.0
NEW HARTFORD 3.8 W 9.0

...KENTUCKY...
OVEN FORK 1 NE 5.0
BLEDSOE 2 SE 4.0

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SAVOY 28.5
ROWE 25.0
CHESTERFIELD 24.0
ASHFIELD 23.6
HEATH 22.0
SHELBURNE 22.0
PLAINFIELD 21.5
PITTSFIELD 20.0
BECKET 19.8
CHESTER 19.5
BLANDFORD 19.0
ASHBURNHAM 16.8
LANESBOROUGH 16.0
NORTH OTIS 16.0
NEW ASHFORD 13.0
WORCESTER 10.7

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
EAST LEMPSTER 20.0
WASHINGTON 18.5
PETERBOROUGH 18.0
RANDOLF 17.6
GREENFIELD 16.0
NEWPORT 15.3
WILTON 14.0
BENNINGTON 13.0
WAPOLE 12.9
WEST CHESTERFIELD 10.8
LEMPSTER 10.0

...NEW YORK...
ALTAMONT 26.5
WESTERLO 26.0
WILLARD MTN BASE 25.0
NORTH HEBRON 24.0
MEDUSA 23.0
MORIAH 22.5
TABORTON 22.0
DURHAM 20.0
PORTER CORNERS 20.0
ROXBURY 18.9
PHOENICIA 18.5
CHATHAM CENTER 18.0
SCHENECTADY 15.0
ALBANY 12.4
BINGHAMTON 10.5

...OHIO...
CARROLOTON 5.5

...PENNSYLVANIA...
PONOCO PEAK LAKE 13.0
HAWLEY 3.8 NE 11.0
WANTAGE 11.0
PLEASANT MOUNT 10.0
DINGMANS FERRY 3.9 WSW 9.2
MILANVILLE 1.5 SE 8.9
SAYLORSBURG 8.5
BEEMERVILLE 8.0
EAST STROUDSBURG 8.0
THOMPSON 8.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLVILLE 6.5
WEST GLOCESTER 5.1
WOONSOCKET 0.3 W 3.4

...TENNESSEE...
APPALACHIA 3.0
ROAN MOUNTAIN 3.0

Update on this Saturday's major winter storm in Europe
Computer forecast models continue to forecast the development of a powerful winter storm that will rapidly intensify Saturday morning into a meteorological "bomb" that will bring high winds and flooding rains to Portugal, northern Spain, and possibly France. However, today's model runs are less aggressive in deepening the storm, and no longer call for the storm to be as intense as last year's Winter Storm Klaus. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra. Last night's 00Z (7pm EST) run of the ECMWF model and GFS model called for Saturday's storm to have 974 - 976 mb central pressure. Saturday's storm still has the potential to be plenty damaging, as winds of tropical storm force with gusts to hurricane force should affect a large swath of Portugal and northern Spain.


Figure 2. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/25/10 run of the GFS model for 18 GMT Saturday for surface winds. The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure of 974 mb. Sustained winds just below hurricane force of 60 - 75 mph (green colors) are expected offshore from Portugal. Image was generated using our wundermap for Spain with the "model" layer turned on.

Next post
My next post will be Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tear Drop (suzi46)
this frozen drop was suspended on the thinnest filament of ice over our frozen brook..so very delicate and beautiful
Tear Drop
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Here is a link to the iceberg article it is huge.
Penguins (C) drift on an ice floe beneath a cathedral iceberg in the Southern Ocean
http://www.physorg.com/news186339017.html
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Quoting Chicklit:
AntarticBergs
Two Big Ones just broke free in Antarctica and are on the move. Question of how much deep sea oxygen levels will be affected.


Sounds like another effort of a WannaBe GW Scare........ENOUGH!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:

Quoting NEwxguy:
What a storm last night,I've had tropical storms move through New England with less impact,lots of damage and power outages all over New England today





A few days ago NOAA and NWS were critisizing ACCUWEATHER for "hyping" the severity of this storm. They really ought to apologize. ACCUWEATHER was out in front of this storm and called it right from 6 days ago.


I'll be one of those apologizing,I thought ACCU was going way over the top,but after last night,they were right on.
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AntarticBergs
Two Big Ones just broke free in Antarctica and are on the move. Question of how much deep sea oxygen levels will be affected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting NEwxguy:
What a storm last night,I've had tropical storms move through New England with less impact,lots of damage and power outages all over New England today





A few days ago NOAA and NWS were critisizing ACCUWEATHER for "hyping" the severity of this storm. They really ought to apologize. ACCUWEATHER was out in front of this storm and called it right from 6 days ago.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
What a storm last night,I've had tropical storms move through New England with less impact,lots of damage and power outages all over New England today.

Wow :-(!
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
What a storm last night,I've had tropical storms move through New England with less impact,lots of damage and power outages all over New England today.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I have two snow shovels... one for me to shovel the driveway with, and the other for the wife to lean against while she watches me shovel the driveway.


Sounds about right lol....
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Quoting mikester:


I have relative with snowplow and a junk snowblower that does my driveway for me.


I have two snow shovels... one for me to shovel the driveway with, and the other for the wife to lean against while she watches me shovel the driveway.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You sound awful cheerful... safe to assume you do not have a 200 ft driveway to shovel.


I have relative with snowplow and a junk snowblower that does my driveway for me.
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Quoting mikester:
And still snowing. Looking to get around 2ft total after the weekend.


You sound awful cheerful... safe to assume you do not have a 200 ft driveway to shovel.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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And still snowing. Looking to get around 2ft total after the weekend.
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Can't buy a snowflake 'round these parts!
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Wahoo about 16" of snow fell out of this storm in my area. Awesome storm.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY...IT WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE CARVES
OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY
LOWER TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AS THE LOW
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...TAKING THE BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT WITH IT. DUE TO THE MOTION OF THE LOW...THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES ALL INDICATE WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS THAT WILL KEEP THE PRECIP THAT FALLS IN LIQUID
FORM. HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO MID AND UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS...A
FEW SITES COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 60. FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT ABOVE
THE COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES. /13

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
CONTINUES WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A GULF LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 12Z SAT...MOVING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA BY AROUND 00Z SUN. WITH MODEL SIMILARITIES...FCST BASED MORE
HEAVILY ON GFS SOLUTION. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES
JUST ALONG THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW
WILL SWING ACROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SAT...BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE REGION SAT MORNING. FOR
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD
RAIN...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
INITIALLY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MIXTURE OF WINTRY
PCPN. WHILE AN ICE PELLET/SNOW FLAKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT SAT
MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCES SEEM SLIM AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FCST FOR NOW.
WE HAVE NOTICED THAT THE 06Z/FRI MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 00Z/FRI NUMBERS...WHICH INCREASES
OUR CONFIDENCE IN NO WINTRY WEATHER.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY BUT COOL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FROM LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...YET ANOTHER GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA LATE MON
AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT...AND THEN QUICKLY BEGIN LIFTING UP THE EAST
COAST BY TUE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MON
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN COMING ON MON NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE
LIGHT AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA...WHERE QPF`S OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FCST
TEMP PROFILES FOR MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY DO NOT SUPPORT ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL
AGAIN HAVE TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR INTERIOR ZONES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
12/DS
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Seastep:
Test. Any better? I can read it fine, but I am a small, small font guy.



TMI...

But I can read your posts just fine...
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest NCEP/HPC Surface MAP, 2 centers one at 972MB, the other at 976MB, INCREDIBLE:


Backdoor warm front, combined with strong northwesterly winds and snowsqualls in a super-intense storm. Yet we've only seen 15 cm (6 in) from the storm so far.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Well on the globe you can have a triangle with 3 right angles summing 270 degrees. Think of a triangle with one angle at the north pole, one side going down the Greenwich latitude line to the equator, one side forming a right angle there at the equator, one side along the equator, one right angle there, and going back up the 90 W line back to the north pole :)


Just requires three dimensional thinking, not 2 dimensions :)
Is a 3 dimensional triangle still a triangle? Not sure, but I like the way you think. Even facts aren't facts if you change dimensions...hmmm, go figure.
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 872
449. unf97
Good morning everyone!

Brrr... A very cold start to the day. Currently 27.6 degrees at my north Jacksonville, FL home location. The low this morning was 27.2 degrees.

It will be a beautiful late winter day with sunny skies and max temps in the upper 50s. Moisture in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will increase tonight ahead of the shortwave diving rapidly E-SE from the ARKLATEX region. Models have now backed off with the potential of a light wintry mix potential over the FL panhandle on tomorrow morning. The best moisture and forcing will be too far south in the GOM as the surface Low will move over South Central FL and out to sea in the Atlantic late Saturday.

Also, the models have for now backed off on the snow potential regarding the next GOM storm system early next week. Most of the guidance now think the thermal profiles will be just warm enough to keep this as a rain event and not bringing in the coldest air until the Low passes. This could definitely change with future model runs in the next couple of days though, and will still have to be closely watched as the event approaches early next week.

Have a great day everyone!
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you're welcome, leftovers. A big read, but he does a good job explaining everything.

I hope he can stay here for Season™.

Ya'll have a blessed day! ♥
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g'morning WU-Bloggers

leftovers- take a peek at Levi32's blog. Plenty of science there. A doozy? Yes, indeed, it would appear so.

Link
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we're getting hammered right now in coastal NJ... 25-35mph winds and visibilty is just about zero...
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The 2010 Superstorm is bombing out about as much I thought it would. I'm expecting it to deepen another few mlb. before reaching it's peak, or it may actually already be at it's peak. Interesting storm, literally a non-tropical Hurricane. Current pressure around 972 mlb. Note that the 1993 Superstorm bombed to 960 mlb., this one is edging close.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

If there were a little further south, would be a worrisome surge event for DelMarVa and Tidewater.
(okay, a lot further south)

Naa na na naa na na naa na na naa
Naa na na naa na na naa na na naa

Hush hush - I thought I heard (him) calling my name now

[Deep Purple]
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Believe it or not... my Daughter posted this earlier in her blog...and I stoled it. Its actually really good.

Our Father, who art in GM Place, hockey be thy name, thy will be done. GOLD to be WON on ICE as well as IN THE STANDS, give us this day, our hockey sticks and forgive us our penalties, as we forgive those who cross check against us. Lead us not into elimination but deliver us to victory, in the name of the fans, CANADA and the HOLY PUCK. AMEN!!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

It will prolly be midday before I can do it...(sry, I hope you didn't get the impression I wanted to do it now, about to turn into a pumpkin)


LOL. No. Bedtime for me too.
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Quoting Seastep:


I'll wumail you the data points for each graph.

It will prolly be midday before I can do it...(sry, I hope you didn't get the impression I wanted to do it now, about to turn into a pumpkin)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

If you get to the point of pulling out hair (careful, there, cannot be too sure how long it will last!), let me know. WU mail me.

I can whip up some IDL code to do it (100 lines...20 minutes for all of them). Full control of where things go, line thickness, text font, font size, text thickness, placement, etc.
(Ironically, the very same code language used by CRU)


I'll wumail you the data points for each graph.
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Quoting Seastep:
Test. Any better? I can read it fine, but I am a small, small font guy.


Far, far better...but only when I grab the pic URL and view in separate tab, not so legible in the blog.
(Ehh, is *better* in the blog, but if you want it to be seen, must be clear and easy to read)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

EXCELLENT!
Thanks for posting this. (Pat's videos earlier bugger up my browser for some reason)


My pleasure, Atmo! The one direct from E! is flash video, looks great on their website, but doesn't seem to travel well. :)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

EXCELLENT!
Thanks for posting this. (Pat's videos earlier bugger up my browser for some reason)

nuttin like team work
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Test. Any better? I can read it fine, but I am a small, small font guy.

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Quoting LongStrangeTrip:


Try Bill Rancic Haiti:

Link

EXCELLENT!
Thanks for posting this. (Pat's videos earlier bugger up my browser for some reason)
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Quoting Seastep:


Second line doesn't copy... no idea why.

I'll try the legend below and if that doesn't help, I'll give in and pull it into MS Office at work.

If you get to the point of pulling out hair (careful, there, cannot be too sure how long it will last!), let me know. WU mail me.

I can whip up some IDL code to do it (100 lines...20 minutes for all of them). Full control of where things go, line thickness, text font, font size, text thickness, placement, etc.
(Ironically, the very same code language used by CRU)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

youtube says:

No videos found for "portlight haiti"

WTH? Did no one capture video of any of it? (Where are you P451?)


Try Bill Rancic Haiti:

Link
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Poor NYC-NJ Metro Area is getting slammed! Thankfully, the DELMARVA peninsula is not in the action!!

So far, the river forecasts are not quite to the level of into homes, but damned close.



Details about each here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Ummm, no. And I am not on a little laptop. Even just viewing a plot, alone, is still tough to read the title and legend (among the last few plots).

2 lines for the title?


Second line doesn't copy... no idea why.

I'll try the legend below and if that doesn't help, I'll give in and pull it into MS Office at work.
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How strong will the low be thats going to be in the gulf of mexico monday tuesday time frame?any ideas
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Quoting atmoaggie:

If there were a little further south, would be a worrisome surge event for DelMarVa and Tidewater.
(okay, a lot further south)


Poor NYC-NJ Metro Area is getting slammed! Thankfully, the DELMARVA peninsula is not in the action!!
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425. xcool
:)
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1221 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

CTZ009-NJZ003>006-011-NYZ069>078-080-260715-
BERGEN-BRONX-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NASSAU-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-
QUEENS-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-ROCKLAND-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK-UNION-
1221 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE NEW YORK
CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...


AT 1211 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH...AND VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY BELOW 1/4 MILE ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SNOW THROUGH 215 AM. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND
AVOID ALL NON-ESSENTIAL TRAVEL.


A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
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Quoting Bordonaro:
976MB BOMB near Cape Cod, MA 10PM CST MAP:

If there were a little further south, would be a worrisome surge event for DelMarVa and Tidewater.
(okay, a lot further south)
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Latest NCEP/HPC Surface MAP, 2 centers one at 972MB, the other at 976MB, INCREDIBLE:
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414.
Thanks
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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