Heavy snow, rain, and flooding for the Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on February 25, 2010

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The winter of 2009-2010 continues its relentless onslaught over the U.S. today, as a powerful low pressure system intensifying along the East Coast brings heavy snow, flooding rains, and high winds to New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The storm has already dropped more than two feet of snow over Eastern New York near Albany, and surrounding regions of Western Massachusetts and Southern Vermont. These regions are now seeing rain mixed in with the snow, which will limit further accumulations to 1 - 3 inches. Farther east, flooding is a concern for most of Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, southern New Hampshire, and portions of western Maine, where heavy rainfall of 1 - 3 inches on top of a snow pack with a high water content has created runoff that has already swollen many rivers to flood stage. Heavy snow is the main concern over southeast New York, northern New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania. The unusually slow-moving storm is expected to drop snow amounts of up to 18" in the Pocono Mountains of northeast Pennsylvania, and in northern New Jersey. New York City, whose 30.5" of snow so far this winter is 13" above average for this date, could get up to a foot of wet, heavy snow. Philadelphia's 73" of snow for the season will get an 8 - 12" boost from the storm, taking their record snowiest winter even further into record territory. Wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph in combination with the very wet, heavy snow will make power outages a problem over much of the region.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image at 9:30am EST Thursday, February 25, 2010 showing today's Northeast U.S. snowstorm. Image credit: NASA GSFC GOES project.

Some selected storm-total snowfall amounts, from Tuesday morning through 10am EST today, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

...CONNECTICUT...
BURLINGTON 10.0
NEW HARTFORD 3.8 W 9.0

...KENTUCKY...
OVEN FORK 1 NE 5.0
BLEDSOE 2 SE 4.0

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SAVOY 28.5
ROWE 25.0
CHESTERFIELD 24.0
ASHFIELD 23.6
HEATH 22.0
SHELBURNE 22.0
PLAINFIELD 21.5
PITTSFIELD 20.0
BECKET 19.8
CHESTER 19.5
BLANDFORD 19.0
ASHBURNHAM 16.8
LANESBOROUGH 16.0
NORTH OTIS 16.0
NEW ASHFORD 13.0
WORCESTER 10.7

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
EAST LEMPSTER 20.0
WASHINGTON 18.5
PETERBOROUGH 18.0
RANDOLF 17.6
GREENFIELD 16.0
NEWPORT 15.3
WILTON 14.0
BENNINGTON 13.0
WAPOLE 12.9
WEST CHESTERFIELD 10.8
LEMPSTER 10.0

...NEW YORK...
ALTAMONT 26.5
WESTERLO 26.0
WILLARD MTN BASE 25.0
NORTH HEBRON 24.0
MEDUSA 23.0
MORIAH 22.5
TABORTON 22.0
DURHAM 20.0
PORTER CORNERS 20.0
ROXBURY 18.9
PHOENICIA 18.5
CHATHAM CENTER 18.0
SCHENECTADY 15.0
ALBANY 12.4
BINGHAMTON 10.5

...OHIO...
CARROLOTON 5.5

...PENNSYLVANIA...
PONOCO PEAK LAKE 13.0
HAWLEY 3.8 NE 11.0
WANTAGE 11.0
PLEASANT MOUNT 10.0
DINGMANS FERRY 3.9 WSW 9.2
MILANVILLE 1.5 SE 8.9
SAYLORSBURG 8.5
BEEMERVILLE 8.0
EAST STROUDSBURG 8.0
THOMPSON 8.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLVILLE 6.5
WEST GLOCESTER 5.1
WOONSOCKET 0.3 W 3.4

...TENNESSEE...
APPALACHIA 3.0
ROAN MOUNTAIN 3.0

Update on this Saturday's major winter storm in Europe
Computer forecast models continue to forecast the development of a powerful winter storm that will rapidly intensify Saturday morning into a meteorological "bomb" that will bring high winds and flooding rains to Portugal, northern Spain, and possibly France. However, today's model runs are less aggressive in deepening the storm, and no longer call for the storm to be as intense as last year's Winter Storm Klaus. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra. Last night's 00Z (7pm EST) run of the ECMWF model and GFS model called for Saturday's storm to have 974 - 976 mb central pressure. Saturday's storm still has the potential to be plenty damaging, as winds of tropical storm force with gusts to hurricane force should affect a large swath of Portugal and northern Spain.


Figure 2. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/25/10 run of the GFS model for 18 GMT Saturday for surface winds. The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure of 974 mb. Sustained winds just below hurricane force of 60 - 75 mph (green colors) are expected offshore from Portugal. Image was generated using our wundermap for Spain with the "model" layer turned on.

Next post
My next post will be Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tear Drop (suzi46)
this frozen drop was suspended on the thinnest filament of ice over our frozen brook..so very delicate and beautiful
Tear Drop
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Cool. Maybe I'll get to go to the beach without driving anywhere if this keeps up.

If I don't see youse guyz for a couple days... I'm powerless over windy weather! (:

I'm going to try driving to the grocery in this stuff. Have they made powdered milk any tastier in the last few decades? (I remember the stuff tasting pretty FOUL)!

Live Conditions 2:51 PM
Montgomery Blair HSChange Tracking Station
Temp
37.4°F, wind 18 mph (but changing minute by minute)
So Far Today
* Lo: 33°F
* Rain: 0.01"
* Hi: 40°F
* Gust: WNW 47
* Wind Chill: 28°F
* Humidity: 44%
* Dew Point: 17°F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
70. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND GO CALM OR NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.
THIS ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOK A LITTLE
TOO COLD AND WILL STAY ABOVE GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER...
THIS WILL SUPPORT A HARD FREEZE ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA COAST. FOR FRIDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DROP INTO EAST
TEXAS BY AFTERNOON. A CLOSED UPPER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
ARKLATEX FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF
DUE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT MOVING INLAND NEAR TAMPA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NAM IN SPREADING
PRECIP ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS ITS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF SHOWING
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF WINTRY WEATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST INCLUDING
MOST OF OUR FLORIDA ZONES. THE BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KTLH
ACTUALLY SUPPORTS SNOW FROM AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE NAM SOUNDING IS TOO WARM AND SHOWS TLH ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS AND HPC IS PREFERRING THE NAM SOLUTION. WE HAVE
ALREADY ADVERTISED THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE
MENTIONED TIME FRAME AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS LINE OF THINKING
WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO POPS. THE WINDOW FOR THE WINTRY MIX
APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO AROUND 09Z SAT UNTIL ABOUT 15Z SAT.
MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE TRICKY WITH AS MUCH AS A 13 DEGREE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THE COLDER MAV AND THE MET. THIS IS DUE TO THE GFS
HOLDING ON TO PRECIP AND NEARLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TEMPS WHERE THEY DIFFER FOR NOW.

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Quoting jeffs713:


OMG! Baja California got moved to the Atlantic Ocean!


talk about continental drift! haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting StormChaser81:


Satellite picture not looking so good.


OMG! Baja California got moved to the Atlantic Ocean!
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Satellite picture not looking so good.


that looks a little odd :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360


Satellite picture FIXED good show NOAA.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting StormChaser81:


This is going to get interesting come Sunday and Monday model runs. Almost looks like a nor'easter off the coast of GA, SC, NC. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

sure does
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF...


This is going to get interesting come Sunday and Monday model runs. Almost looks like a nor'easter off the coast of GA, SC, NC. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
62. IKE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
219 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 28 2010 - 12Z THU MAR 04 2010


...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A SNOWSTORM OVER THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
STATES...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/25 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-6 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH A MODEST
INCORPORATION OF THE ECENS MEAN DAY 7 TO MITIGATE THE UNCERTAINTY
IN SYNOPTIC DETAILS INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE. FOR THE SOUTH
AND EAST...THE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WAVE THE MODELS TRACK ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
WINTER SEASON HAS SEEN WAVE AFTER WAVE CROSS THE GULF OR DEEP
SOUTH...AND THEN TURN EITHER SUBTLY OR SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. IN MOST CASES...THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHY ABOUT LIFTING THESE SYSTEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...WITH AN INEVITABLE CREEP NORTHWARD TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS WITH
TIME. THE SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST A COUPLE WEEKS AGO
IS AN EXAMPLE OF SUCH A CASE...WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE NOT
GIVING THE REGION ITS DUE UNTIL A MERE 36 HOURS FROM IMPACT. TOOK
THE CUE FOR THIS FORECAST...AND USED THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF...WHICH TRACKED CLOSEST TO THE COAST DAY 6. THIS MODEL HAS
THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM GLOBAL...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN CENTRES. THE GFS AND ITS
ATTENDANT ENSEMBLE PACKAGE LOOKED FLAT BASED ON THE EXPERIENCE OF
THIS SEASON. THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT THE SPLITTING
POINT OF WAVES COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH A COUPLE INTENSE
COLD MARITIME POLAR VORTICES SLATED FOR THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A CONTINUAL FEED OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR...THIS
REGIONS LOT IN LIFE IN THE TENACIOUS BLOCKING REGIME OF THE WINTER
OF 09-10.


FINAL...

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE
12Z/25 GFS AND GEFS MEAN HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE WAVE
CROSSING THE GULF AND PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DAYS 5 AND
6...WITH THE GEM GLOBAL HOLDING ITS GROUND...AND THE ECMWF COMING
NORTH TO CAPE HATTERAS. ALL IN ALL...THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY COAST TO COAST...AND SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.


CISCO
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Thanks DRM. Seems the incredible numbers just keep on rolling in. I had wondered about the flooding from all that snow. My little desktop weather thing only recently stopped flashing red for the first time in months from the flood warning for the Sabine River. Then not a day passed by until it was red again with a winter storm warning. Then down to orange for a winter storm watch. I think someone didn't get that winter weather memo around here. For which I am grateful. My northern neighbors are a hearty bunch. I certainly hope the spring treats us all with a little more kindness. And it would be nice for the summer to do so as well. Sigh. But I'm not holding my breath.
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Quoting Levi32:


I know, and I don't know enough about that field to debate that much, but my original response to the paper you posted was about the content of the paper, and the facts about hurricanes which they stated, which clearly made no sense.

Ok.

Further studys will examine this study and might draw better conclusions and models out of it or even come up with an explanation.

This is how science works.

Things become even more complex when we have today a lot of stuff in the atmosphere which has never seen the atmosphere in earth history.
CFC's for example. And we need to be more cautious about the effects or we could end up destroying our ozone layer or trigger a runaway climate change. The IPCC did not contained methane release in their models.
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59. IKE
12Z ECMWF...
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Levi it is ok to discuss this study, but you are way to fast with drawing your conclusions.
Ask questions, research ...

Coastel erosion, plants, animal skeletons - bone structures, sediments there is a lot of data which let us reconstruct past climates.


I know, and I don't know enough about that field to debate that much, but my original response to the paper you posted was about the content of the paper, and the facts about hurricanes which they stated, which clearly made no sense.
Quoting Levi32:


"Although most of us think about hurricanes in terms of their impact on the land, they also wreak havoc on the sea, churning the water like giant mixers and forcing warm surface waters deeper. When that occurs in the central Pacific, "the ocean responds by sending that water to the East," where it rises again close to the equator"

It sounds to me like they're forgetting what a hurricane's life-purpose is. Hurricanes take heat OUT of the tropics, and although they mix the surface sea water, they also cool it significantly by evaporation, upwelling, and rainfall. Hurricanes use an insane amount of heat, all taken from the oceans, harness it, and then release it into the upper atmosphere where it can radiate into space. Hurricanes also strive to move poleward if at all possible, to take their burden of heat out of the tropics and dump it closer to the poles in an attempt to ballance the earth's heat budget. So how much sense does it make to say that more hurricanes could cause a warmer earth?.

Also, on the 2nd part of that quote about the central Pacific.....only 3-4 hurricanes move into the central Pacific per year, and those usually rapidly weaken as they do it, not to mention that they are usually very small storms. To suggest that this very small minority could force warm water eastward into the eastern Pacific, where there are far MORE hurricanes "pushing back" in the opposite direction, doesn't make sense.
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Quoting Levi32:


If the reconstructed "data" is as good as they say, then why don't we have reconstructed SST anomaly maps from thousands of years ago....I mean...it's pretty hard to believe they can know whether the eastern Pacific was warmer than the central Pacific, how many hurricanes there were, and fine details like that. It's like the article someone posted in here about the rising oceans and the catastrophe that happened 251 million years ago and drove a lot of species close to extinction. Who is gonna believe that? Nobody can know what happened that long ago, and what little they even could figure out, would only be a very tiny part of the picture.

All that aside...I stand by the fact that many of the paper's statements are flawed. The context that you posted hasn't changed any of that.

Levi it is ok to discuss this study, but you are way to fast with drawing your conclusions.
Ask questions, research ...

Coastel erosion, plants, animal skeletons - bone structures, sediments there is a lot of data which let us reconstruct past climates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Well that may be true and that's very intriguing, but they can't do studies of sediments all over the world enough to draw complete pictures of what conditions were in history. I'm obviously not a geologist or anything like that but I think it's premature for papers like this to say things as if they know for a fact exactly what the state of the atmosphere and oceans were millions of years ago.

Again, even if they did, the paper is flawed.


I see where your coming from because certain areas in the ocean there are no small organisms and sediment accumulation is slower or faster.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting StormChaser81:


Also you'll see spikes in certain Phytoplanktons and other very small organisms, that thrive in warmer waters and die in colder waters. You can see this in the sediments and you know that certain animals cant live in specific conditions.


Well that may be true and that's very intriguing, but they can't do studies of sediments all over the world enough to draw complete pictures of what conditions were in history. I'm obviously not a geologist or anything like that but I think it's premature for papers like this to say things as if they know for a fact exactly what the state of the atmosphere and oceans were millions of years ago.

Again, even if they did, the paper is flawed based on the fundamental facts we know about hurricanes.
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weird, Firefox went retarted on me.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting Levi32:


If the reconstructed "data" is as good as they say, then why don't we have reconstructed SST anomaly maps from thousands of years ago....I mean...it's pretty hard to believe they can know whether the eastern Pacific was warmer than the central Pacific, how many hurricanes there were, and fine details like that. It's like the article someone posted in here about the rising oceans and the catastrophe that happened 251 million years ago and drove a lot of species close to extinction. Who is gonna believe that? Nobody can know what happened that long ago, and what little they even could figure out, would only be a very tiny part of the picture.

All that aside...I stand by the fact that many of the paper's statements are flawed. The context that you posted hasn't changed any of that.


There is a whole project on the climate of that era. The hurricanes for that era are from models, they first used the model to simulate current frequency, then used the same model with the Plicone climate.

The paper was co-authored by Kerry Emanuel, so I don't think the statements about hurricanes are that far off.
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Quoting Levi32:


Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting Levi32:


If the reconstructed "data" is as good as they say, then why don't we have reconstructed SST anomaly maps from thousands of years ago....I mean...it's pretty hard to believe they can know whether the eastern Pacific was warmer than the central Pacific, how many hurricanes there were, and fine details like that. It's like the article someone posted in here about the rising oceans and the catastrophe that happened 251 million years ago and drove a lot of species close to extinction. Who is gonna believe that? Nobody can know what happened that long ago, and what little they even could figure out, would only be a very tiny part of the picture.

All that aside...I stand by the fact that many of the paper's statements are flawed. The context that you posted hasn't changed any of that.


Also you'll see spikes in certain Phytoplanktons and other very small organisms, that thrive in warmer waters and die in colder waters. You can see this in the sediments and you know that certain animals cant live in specific conditions.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Graphic graphic, Tom. Thanks. I think my statement needs to be adjusted to be CITIES that see the most lightning. I'm not surprised the equatorial rainforests and monsoon areas of Asia see more lightning than anyone else. A bit surprised at the region in SW Brazil though.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They use the method you don't agree with...reconstruction.


16. Thompson, R. S. & Fleming, R. F. Middle Pliocene vegetation: reconstructions,
paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modelling. Mar.
Micropaleont. 27, 27-49 (1996)
17. Dowsett, H. J. et al. Middle Pliocene Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction: PRISM2,
236 (1999).
18. Haywood, A. & Valdes, P. Modelling Pliocene warmth: contribution of atmosphere,
oceans and cryosphere. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 218, 363-377 (2004).
19. Dowsett, H. J. & Robinson, M. M. Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface
temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. 367, 109-125
(2009). For further details of the PRISM project and access to the current datasets visit
http://geology.er.usgs.gov/eespteam/prism


If the reconstructed "data" is as good as they say, then why don't we have reconstructed SST anomaly maps from thousands of years ago....I mean...it's pretty hard to believe they can know whether the eastern Pacific was warmer than the central Pacific, how many hurricanes there were, and fine details like that. It's like the article someone posted in here about the rising oceans and the catastrophe that happened 251 million years ago and drove a lot of species close to extinction. Who is gonna believe that? Nobody can know what happened that long ago, and what little they even could figure out, would only be a very tiny part of the picture.

All that aside...I stand by the fact that many of the paper's statements are flawed. The context that you posted hasn't changed any of that.
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Quoting Levi32:


First tell me how they can possibly know exactly what atmospheric and oceanic conditions and patterns were 5 million years ago.


You can see it from sediment deposits and radioactive dating.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting Levi32:


First tell me how they can possibly know exactly what atmospheric and oceanic conditions and patterns were 5 million years ago.


They use the method you don't agree with...reconstruction.


16. Thompson, R. S. & Fleming, R. F. Middle Pliocene vegetation: reconstructions,
paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modelling. Mar.
Micropaleont. 27, 27-49 (1996)
17. Dowsett, H. J. et al. Middle Pliocene Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction: PRISM2,
236 (1999).
18. Haywood, A. & Valdes, P. Modelling Pliocene warmth: contribution of atmosphere,
oceans and cryosphere. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 218, 363-377 (2004).
19. Dowsett, H. J. & Robinson, M. M. Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface
temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. 367, 109-125
(2009). For further details of the PRISM project and access to the current datasets visit
http://geology.er.usgs.gov/eespteam/prism
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
46. Inyo
Burlington, Vermont has tons of wet, soggy snow right now, and it is melting all over, but the water content is so high it will stick around for a while, even with the light rain.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Re: Can Hurricanes Cause Climate Change?

The context of the article needs to be taken into consideration when reviewing the statements. The focus of the paper:

A major unresolved issue is how the early Pliocene climate and especially its
tropical conditions were maintained, given that CO2 concentrations were very similar to
modern. So far, climate models have not been able to reproduce the tropical SST
patterns characteristic of the early Pliocene18,24. A recent study21 has suggested that
additional mechanisms, perhaps related to ocean vertical mixing, should be considered
in order to simulate a tropical climate state with weak SST contrasts. Could tropical
cyclones provide such a mechanism?

Entire paper


First tell me how they can possibly know exactly what atmospheric and oceanic conditions and patterns were 5 million years ago.
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Quoting CTSkywatcher:
I know Aussie has finally hit the "hay", but I have heard more than once that Darwin is the lightning capital of the world....Floridians would disagree though. I have seen SFLA lightning first hand...having been chased by it more than once....it's been a while, but I can't seem to forget it ;0


Rwanda, Africa is the lightning capitol of the world, receiving nearly 2.5 times the amount of lightning as Florida
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Cannot post the whole image here...but it is amazing how well you can pick out the land use changes from humans in S. Florida in this satellite shot from about 2 hours ago: http://cyclops.marine.usf.edu/modis/level3/husf/A01/2010/056/1km/pass/final/MODIS.2010 056.155719.A0 1.rgb.png

Shameful, really. Coexist with the native environment. And if that is too challenging, live somewhere else. At least keep down the sprawl.


Thats been a major political debate down here for years... development versus conservation. Luckly the Everglades National Park is to the west, or you would see the sprawl further westward.
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Quoting CTSkywatcher:
I know Aussie has finally hit the "hay", but I have heard more than once that Darwin is the lightning capital of the world....Floridians would disagree though. I have seen SFLA lightning first hand...having been chased by it more than once....it's been a while, but I can't seem to forget it ;0


Actually.. it looks like central Africa gets the most...



I was pretty stunned to see that too....
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Re: Can Hurricanes Cause Climate Change?

The context of the article needs to be taken into consideration when reviewing the statements. The focus of the paper:

A major unresolved issue is how the early Pliocene climate and especially its
tropical conditions were maintained, given that CO2 concentrations were very similar to
modern. So far, climate models have not been able to reproduce the tropical SST
patterns characteristic of the early Pliocene18,24. A recent study21 has suggested that
additional mechanisms, perhaps related to ocean vertical mixing, should be considered
in order to simulate a tropical climate state with weak SST contrasts. Could tropical
cyclones provide such a mechanism?

Entire paper
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cannot post the whole image here...but it is amazing how well you can pick out the land use changes from humans in S. Florida in this satellite shot from about 2 hours ago: http://cyclops.marine.usf.edu/modis/level3/husf/A01/2010/056/1km/pass/final/MODIS.2010056.155719.A0 1.rgb.png

Shameful, really. Coexist with the native environment. And if that is too challenging, live somewhere else. At least keep down the sprawl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know Aussie has finally hit the "hay", but I have heard more than once that Darwin is the lightning capital of the world....Floridians would disagree though. I have seen SFLA lightning first hand...having been chased by it more than once....it's been a while, but I can't seem to forget it ;0
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Wow, little ol'NW CT makes the good Dr's blog! The rain here is relentless...if this were snow...*sigh*
Made a 7ft tall snowman the other night, he has aged 90 years in 24 hours....eyes and teeth have fallen out, and he is about 4ft tall now....kids will be laughing when they see him after school. Watch out for those falling trees in PA and NJ!
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Quoting TampaTom:


Awesome! Great job...

We found out today that our entry didn't win.... eh, you win some, you lose some!

They all need an award.
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Quoting Patrap:
Here's a Special Announcement,our own wunderblogger,"sandcrab"..also known as "Butch Loper",retired Emg Mgr for Jackson,County ,Mississippi.has been selected to receive the

2010 National Hurricane Conference Distinguished Service Award.


Butch is a good friend and a National asset and inspiration to thousands.

His decades of service and Duty to others is unsurpassed and it was Butch Loper who befriended me here in 2006 and Im a better man for knowing him and his wife.

Please drop by his blog in the directory and congratulate Butch for this distinguished award.



Butch Speaking at Loyola University during the portlight.org 2009 NOLA relief Walk.




Awesome! Great job...

We found out today that our entry didn't win.... eh, you win some, you lose some!
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Quoting Patrap:
Here's a Special Announcement,our own wunderblogger,"sandcrab"..also known as "Butch Loper",retired Emg Mgr for Jackson,County ,Mississippi.has been selected to receive the

2010 National Hurricane Conference Distinguished Service Award.


Butch is a good friend and a National asset and inspiration to thousands.

His decades of service and Duty to others is unsurpassed and it was Butch Loper who befriended me here in 2006 and Im a better man for knowing him and his wife.

Please drop by his blog in the directory and congratulate Butch for this distinguished award.



Butch Speaking at Loyola University during the portlight.org 2009 NOLA relief Walk.



He's a good man and has done an outstanding job.Congrads Butch
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Massive storm lights up Darwin


The Bureau of Meteorology says Darwin has been struck by a massive storm with more than a thousand cloud-to-cloud lightning strikes.

Angeline Prasad, from the bureau, says there has been an average of 100 lightning strikes a minute, but very few have hit the ground.

"We had quite a display of lightning. I'm still counting the lightning strikes. It's available in increments of one minute, but so far we've had more than a thousand cloud-to-cloud lightning strikes," she said.

Angeline says a monsoon trough in the Victoria River district has brought rain to almost everywhere in the territory overnight.

-ABC

Tonight i had a strange dream of these sprites ...

Sprites are large-scale electrical discharges that occur high above a thunderstorm cloud, or cumulonimbus, giving rise to a quite varied range of visual shapes. They are triggered by the discharges of positive lightning between the thundercloud and the ground.[40] The phenomena were named after the mischievous sprite (air spirit) Puck in Shakespeare's A Midsummer Night's Dream. They normally are coloured reddish-orange or greenish-blue, with hanging tendrils below and arcing branches above their location, and can be preceded by a reddish halo.[51] They often occur in clusters, lying 50 miles (80 km) to 90 miles (145 km) above the Earth's surface. Sprites were first photographed on July 6, 1989 by scientists from the University of Minnesota and have since been witnessed tens of thousands of times.[53] Sprites have been mentioned as a possible cause in otherwise unexplained accidents involving high altitude vehicular operations above thunderstorms.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning
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Quoting AussieStorm:

4:05am and i am off to bed.
Goodnight all. Stay warm, Stay safe.

G'Nite
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hurricanes draw moisture and energy from warm water, pulling up the colder water from the depths.

Just by mixing and matter displacement, warm water will make it to depths as cold water is pulled up, though thoroughly mixed with far more cold water...
The net effect for the whole column is to cool when you include the extra surface area of turbulent seas and higher winds that cause extra evaporative cooling (exactly the processes that feed a cane and by which it collects heat to move upwards and poleward).
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Quoting AussieStorm:

4:05am and i am off to bed.
Goodnight all. Stay warm, Stay safe.


have a good one Aussie!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Levi32:


"Although most of us think about hurricanes in terms of their impact on the land, they also wreak havoc on the sea, churning the water like giant mixers and forcing warm surface waters deeper. When that occurs in the central Pacific, "the ocean responds by sending that water to the East," where it rises again close to the equator"

It sounds to me like they're forgetting what a hurricane's life-purpose is. Hurricanes take heat OUT of the tropics, and although they mix the surface sea water, they also cool it significantly by evaporation, upwelling, and rainfall. Hurricanes use an insane amount of heat, all taken from the oceans, harness it, and then release it into the upper atmosphere where it can radiate into space. Hurricanes also strive to move poleward if at all possible, to take their burden of heat out of the tropics and dump it closer to the poles in an attempt to ballance the earth's heat budget. So how much sense does it make to say that more hurricanes could cause a warmer earth?.

Also, on the 2nd part of that quote about the central Pacific.....only 3-4 hurricanes move into the central Pacific per year, and those usually rapidly weaken as they do it, not to mention that they are usually very small storms. To suggest that this very small minority could force warm water eastward into the eastern Pacific, where there are far MORE hurricanes "pushing back" in the opposite direction, doesn't make sense.


Excellent points. Along the same lines... hurricanes, and any storm system, have very reflective cloud tops. Those cloud tops reflect radiation back out to space by virtue of a very high albedo.
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Quoting tornadodude:


right, thanks!

4:05am and i am off to bed.
Goodnight all. Stay warm, Stay safe.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hurricanes draw moisture and energy from warm water, pulling up the colder water from the depths.


right, thanks!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:
wow, the hurricane article.

dont hurricanes take heat out of the ocean?

Hurricanes draw moisture and energy from warm water, pulling up the colder water from the depths.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Massive storm lights up Darwin


The Bureau of Meteorology says Darwin has been struck by a massive storm with more than a thousand cloud-to-cloud lightning strikes.

Angeline Prasad, from the bureau, says there has been an average of 100 lightning strikes a minute, but very few have hit the ground.

"We had quite a display of lightning. I'm still counting the lightning strikes. It's available in increments of one minute, but so far we've had more than a thousand cloud-to-cloud lightning strikes," she said.

Angeline says a monsoon trough in the Victoria River district has brought rain to almost everywhere in the territory overnight.

-ABC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977

(none worse than minor flooding)


(possibly expect higher flood forecast soon)

From: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/

Radar shows more coming, but not too terribly much:
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Quoting tornadodude:
wow, the hurricane article.

dont hurricanes take heat out of the ocean?


Exactly why the article makes no sense.
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wow, the hurricane article.

dont hurricanes take heat out of the ocean?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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