Russia's Pole of Cold hits -70°F: Europe's 2nd coldest reading of all-time

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on February 22, 2010

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The notorious Russian winter, bane of the armies of Napoleon and Hitler, has been in classic form during the winter of 2010 . Brutal cold has been the rule this winter in the European portion of Russia, and at 9am local time on Friday, February 19, the town of Hoseda-Hard, Russia hit a remarkable -70°F (-56.4°C)--the second coldest temperature ever measured in Europe. Hoseda-Hard is located in extreme northeastern Europe, 90 miles (145 km) south of the Arctic Ocean and about 150 miles (240 km) west of the Ural Mountains and the boundary of Asia. The town lies in a shallow river valley (elevation 84 meters) where cold air tends to pool. The surrounding region is known as Europe's "Pole of Cold". The coldest temperature ever recorded in Europe was an extraordinary -72.6°F (-58.1°C) in the Pole of Cold's Ust'Schugor (64.15°N 57.45°) on December 31, 1978. The nearby city of Pechora, the largest city in the region (population: 50,000), is also well-known for its extreme temperatures. Pechora boasts Europe's third coldest temperature, a -68.8°F (-56.0°C) reading observed on February 9, 1946. It is likely that Hoseda-Hard got a degree or two colder than the remarkable -70°F measured on Friday, since the station only reported temperatures once every three hours. The high temperature Friday in Hoseda-Hard was a not-so-balmy -49°F (-45°C)!


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for February 19, 2010. Temperatures at Europe's "Pole of Cold" (dark purple colors) were more than 40°F (22°C) below average. The white dot marks the location of Hoseda-Hard, Russia, which recorded a remarkable -70°F (-56.4°C) at 9am local time that day--the second coldest temperature ever measured in Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 2. A monument in Europe's "Pole of Cold" near Hoseda-Hard, Russia, marking the location of the Arctic Circle. Image credit: Mactak.

Exceptional February heat in Africa
I credit weather historian and extreme weather expert Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, for pointing out the incredible cold in Russia on Friday. Chris also noted that on Saturday, February 20, the temperature in Birni-N'Konni, Niger hit 112°F (44.3°C). This is just 3°F (1.7°C) below the warmest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere in February--the 115°F reading from Abeche, Chad (date unknown).

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Jeff Masters

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Hello, everyone.

Just something to think about with these 2 upcoming Gulf lows. The GFS has had trouble all season with the track of the lows, even within 3 days of an event. I'd pay more attention to the ECMWF's track of the low, but maybe not quite as suppressed as it's predicting.

Strange winter we are having, though. Here in Hattiesburg, we have had 2 measurable snows (both 4+ inches), one snow without a trace and another snow forecast tonight with maybe a dusting. Really hard to believe we could have one, possibly two more measurable snows this weekend and early next week.
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754. IKE
Quoting Bordonaro:


First map means the El Nino will be over by summer.

Second map shows the Tropical Atl/Carribean will be about 1C above normal.

Third map means there is little chance we will have higher than normal barometric pressures over the Tropics (enhances the chances for TS development).

Fourth map shows the average bearometric pressures will be below average for the middle of Hurricane season!


Could mean big trouble in the Atlantic. Time will tell.
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Actually...now is a good time to buy Hurricane supplies. Prices are low on radios, portable TV's, batteries, etc.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
Quoting Bordonaro:


First map means the El Nino will be over by summer. Second map shows the Tropical Atl/Carribean will be about +1C above normal. Third map means there is little chance we will have higher than normal barometric pressures over the Tropics (enhances the chances for TS development). Forth map shows the average bearometric pressures will be below average for the middle of Hurricane season!

So in other words, batten down the hatches...
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Quoting Bordonaro:


First map means the El Nino will be over by summer. Second map shows the Tropical Atl/Carribean will be about 1C above normal. Third map means there is little chance we will have higher than normal barometric pressures over the Tropics (enhances the chances for TS development). Fourth map shows the average bearometric pressures will be below average for the middle of Hurricane season!


Thanks...a few bloggers post images and blogs that are way above a lot of us regular folk. Just take a few minutes and post with an explanation so all of us can understand what point you are making.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
Go Pro Website
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For us dullards, what do all your map postings mean Storm?


First map means the El Nino will be over by summer.

Second map shows the Tropical Atl/Carribean will be about 1C above normal.

Third map means there is little chance we will have higher than normal barometric pressures over the Tropics (enhances the chances for TS development).

Fourth map shows the average barometric pressures will be below average for the middle of Hurricane season!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
...also, what speed, i.e high? bet not but hoping.
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
Quoting CycloneOz:
Check out this incredible HD video camcorder!

Look! It's only about two inches long. It's already in the underwater case!



WOW!!!

Oz, are those the boxes they came in? We use very small protected cameras in flight test but those are smaller than I've seen. Commercial-of-the-shelf or special order?
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
For us dullards, what do all your map postings mean Storm?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
Quoting StormW:








Good evening StormW! Hope all is well, good to see you back on the blog!

I cannot WAIT for this El Nino to go away. I live in the DFW, TX area, we have had 15.9" of snow this winter and we only need 1.9" this winter to set an all time record. Our weather records go back 112 years.

Right now, this is the 2ND snowiest winter on record, and winter is not over yet!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Check out this incredible HD video camcorder!

Look! It's only about two inches long. It's already in the underwater case!



WOW!!!

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B'sides...with 13-15 fully functional weather radios in the house (I lost count), I'm just gonna buy some earplugs.

Wake me when we're twelve hours out from a Cat 3.
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Wichita television stations are reporting that this is the first winter in which the temperature has stayed below 60 F in a period beginning in late November. there is no likelihood of the temperature reaching 60 through the end of the month.

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Quoting aquak9:
ahhh...I promise I'm totally relaxed. Just wanted to get an idea of the possibilities. I like Keeper's post best, heralding spring.

Bring it on.

Good! We all, including the meteorologists, are keeping an eye on this upcoming event..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


Remember, this is ONLY A COMPUTER FORECAST. We have 6 full days to watch this, RELAX!!!!

Models forecast this system will NOT affect the Eastern Seaboard!!


yep

remember models are meant to be used for guidance purposes only and donot depict final outcome for any one single event things can and will change as event gets closer watch for updated info
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ahhh...I promise I'm totally relaxed. Just wanted to get an idea of the possibilities. I like Keeper's post best, heralding spring.

Bring it on.
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Quoting aquak9:
confound it, Bord, I did NOT want this to be a nighttime event!!

and I don't even wanna think about the snow effect this is gonna have, further up the eastern seaboard.


Remember, this is ONLY A COMPUTER FORECAST. We have 6 full days to watch this, RELAX!!!!

Models forecast this system will NOT affect the Eastern Seaboard!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


At 180HRS out, 3/3/10, at 1AM EST, the 18Z GFS has this at 981MB off the SC coastline.

I would say there is a 25% chance this thing could intensify into a Super-Storm:


Only thing is though, that's a superstorm for the Atlantic and not for the CONUS. Bad news for the Gulf Stream.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
the last storm that bo speaks of if plays out pulls all the cold winter air out with it on it move ne ward hearlding in first breath of spring
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confound it, Bord, I did NOT want this to be a nighttime event!!

and I don't even wanna think about the snow effect this is gonna have, further up the eastern seaboard.
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once this stormy pattern is done warm spring air is on the way look to the west at the end of the run above freezing temp from top to bottom advancing west
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General statement.

This is a predicted forecast, out approx 7 days, this may or may not be exactly how this goes down!!!


Aquak9, at 156hrs, just off the W Coast of FL, an area of possible severe T-Storms approach N FL, GFS TU 3/2/10 at 1AM EST:


At 162hrs, over the N Central portions of FL, including Jacksonville, FL, GFS TU 3/2/10at 7AM EST:
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785


run for N.E
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Quoting unf97:


Bordonaro,

What are the chances that this system could deepen enough to be mentioned with the March '93 GOM superstorm? I slightly hesitated to mention that because that storm was one of a kind, but, the dynamics look very impressive with this GOM system next week that it is a possibility that it could be comparable. But, of course, it's still early and things could change. Stay tuned!


At 180HRS out, 3/3/10, at 1AM EST, the 18Z GFS has this at 981MB off the SC coastline.

I would say there is a 25% chance this thing could intensify into a Super-Storm:
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785


run for south
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Hoo-boy.

ok, how about a time frame, let's start with the western coast of Florida, or a little further west.

what are the featured courses, and who can expect what and when for this mess.
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Quoting flibinite:
We're getting bombed here in Eastern New York. 5" of 8-to-1 wet snow already, closer to 10" just east of where I am, and expecting a foot before this winds down tomorrow.

But that's only the first storm. One is expected to blow up just off the DelMarva, then track north and even west to eventually sit right over our heads. I looked at the latest GFS model and it has the tightest band of isobars I've ever seen on an inland low in this area, so I'm imagining 60 mph wind gusts on Friday, with good only knows how much more new storm.

The local mets are refusing to even guess how much snow on Friday, in fact. I grew up 40 miles south of Buffalo, so I know snow and blizzards, but quite honestly, I'm a bit scared about this one, as the worst case scenario could be really awful, especially if people start losing power from the very heavy snow and big winds.

As a precursor, the commute home today was a total nightmare, and I've already had three friends text me that they were in fender-benders. :(

Jo


What county in NY do you live in?

Just BE AWARE that the NEXT system that will develop, has all the tools availiable to:

Possibly create widespread gale to possibly storm force winds (39-73MPH), especially along the coastline.

Possible wet, heavy snows of 8-20", blizzard/white-out conditions lasting >24 hrs in duration.

Possible widespread minor/moderate coastal flooding lasting >24 hrs in duration.

Possible large-scale power outages >24 hrs.

18Z GFS SURFACE MAP. FORECAST IS 54HRS INTO THE FUTURE, TH 2/25/10 @ 7PM EST (WHICH IS FR 2/26/10 at 00Z)**978MB JUST OFF THE NJ COAST**
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting CycloneOz:


In like a lion, out like a lamb...and then a July Cat 2 right up the gut.

Wouldn't it be interesting that the whole of 2010 was remembered for intense weather?
intense weather it shall be just for you oz
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724. unf97
Quoting Bordonaro:


That was an awesome way to describe our moderate and weakening Modiki El Nino.

We have a -NAO and a -AO, an an active Polar Jet and a active Sub-Tropical Jet.

I promise, I am NOT trying to be an alarmist, not trying to be a "Joe Bastardi-like" hypist.

HOWEVER, this storm system for 3/1-3/4/10 may be a very active, potentially dangerous storm.

When you have a closed Polar Low, move into the mild GOM, with an active, juicy Sub-Tropical Jet Stream, you truly have ALL the makings for a SUPER STORM!!!!


18Z GFS RUN SURFACE MAP 162HRS, TU 3/2/10 at 7AM EST:


Bordonaro,

What are the chances that this system could deepen enough to be mentioned with the March '93 GOM superstorm? I slightly hesitated to mention that because that storm was one of a kind, but, the dynamics look very impressive with this GOM system next week that it is a possibility that it could be comparable. But, of course, it's still early and things could change. Stay tuned!
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Now, I didn't say this is a "2012 Storm to end all storms"!

JUST know in advance, that this system has all the ingredients to be a powerful system.

ALSO remember, the atmospheric dynamics MAY change, making the system a weaker L.


I don't want to be an alarmist either, but it is my experience that when cold air meets warm moist air...uh...tornado outbreak.
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Quoting aquak9:
Thanks, Bord. Geeesh, guess I'll call an attorney and make out my will. This is gonna be a long year...

:)


Now, I didn't say this is a "2012 Storm to end all storms"!

JUST know in advance, that this system has all the ingredients to be a powerful system.

ALSO remember, the atmospheric dynamics MAY change, making the system a weaker L.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


That was an awesome way to describe our moderate and weakening Modiki El Nino.

We have a -NAO and a -AO, an an active Polar Jet and a active Sub-Tropical Jet.

I promise, I am NOT trying to be an alarmist, not trying to be a "Joe Bastardi-like" hypist.

HOWEVER, this storm system for 3/1-3/4/10 may be a very active, potentially dangerous storm.

When you have a closed Polar Low, move into the mild GOM, with an active, juicy Sub-Tropical Jet Stream, you truly have ALL the makings for a SUPER STORM!!!!


18Z GFS RUN SURFACE MAP 162HRS, TU 3/2/10 at 7AM EST:
widespread high impacting event as it roars along
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is that your new Hurricane chasing outfit Oz?


LOL...no...but this is!!!

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We're getting bombed here in Eastern New York. 5" of 8-to-1 wet snow already, closer to 10" just east of where I am, and expecting a foot before this winds down tomorrow.

But that's only the first storm. One is expected to blow up just off the DelMarva, then track north and even west to eventually sit right over our heads. I looked at the latest GFS model and it has the tightest band of isobars I've ever seen on an inland low in this area, so I'm imagining 60 mph wind gusts on Friday, with god only knows how much more new snow.

The local mets are refusing to even guess how much snow on Friday, in fact. I grew up 40 miles south of Buffalo, so I know snow and blizzards, but quite honestly, I'm a bit scared about this one, as the worst case scenario could be really awful, especially if people start losing power from the very heavy snow and big winds.

As a precursor, the commute home today was a total nightmare, and I've already had three friends text me that they were in fender-benders. :(

Jo
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Is that your new Hurricane chasing outfit Oz?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
Quoting Patrap:
something coming
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Quoting CycloneOz:
The joys of a Modiki El Nino
In winter? No suave, dang hito bambino
It's so darn cold
Snow blinding as gold
Great odds for Gulf blizzard at casino! :)


Meteorological poetry!! Nice, very nice!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Thanks, Bord. Geeesh, guess I'll call an attorney and make out my will. This is gonna be a long year...

:)
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The Krewe of LaSnowDeFoote
Fiesta of Five Inches Parade - Pensacola, FL


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Quoting aquak9:
Modiki El Nino, sliding into a KizzyYourAzzyGoodbye neutral?

And here I am, sitting like the GOM's last barrier island...


That was an awesome way to describe our moderate and weakening Modiki El Nino.

We have a -NAO and a -AO, an an active Polar Jet and a active Sub-Tropical Jet.

I promise, I am NOT trying to be an alarmist, not trying to be a "Joe Bastardi-like" hypist.

HOWEVER, this storm system for 3/1-3/4/10 may be a very active, potentially dangerous storm.

When you have a closed Polar Low, move into the mild GOM, with an active, juicy Sub-Tropical Jet Stream, you truly have ALL the makings for a SUPER STORM!!!!


18Z GFS RUN SURFACE MAP 162HRS, TU 3/2/10 at 7AM EST:
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Modiki El Nino, sliding into a KizzyYourAzzyGoodbye neutral?

And here I am, sitting like the GOM's last barrier island...
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We were forecast to hit 80 today, but maxed out at 78. Temps. take a dive for the rest of the week.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
The joys of a Modiki El Nino
In winter? No suave, dang hito bambino
It's so darn cold
Snow blinding as gold
Great odds for Gulf blizzard at casino! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
709. unf97
Quoting Bordonaro:


A closed Polar Low will parade across TX on Su-Mo 2/28-3/1. Then it meets the relatively mild, moist GOM airmass, and the the system will bomb out, rapidly intensify over the N GOM.

And continue to intensify as it crosses the FL peninsula and moves off the SE coastline.

Be on the look-out for strong/gale force winds, heavy rain/inland snow over parts of the SE US, and possibly a widespread severe weather outbreak.

And the JOYS of the Modiki El Nino continues!!


Good synopsis Bordo. Yeah, severe weather is a very good possibility for Central and South Florida if this scenario pans out for early next week. And if the Low really "bombs" as the GFS suggests, good snowfall totals on the back side of the system will impact interior areas of the Deep South.
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Quoting unf97:


It has been a historic winter season for you over there Bordonaro. Snowfall records continue on for you thanks to the El Nino. The very potent shortwave Mon-Tuesday of next week definitely has the potential to give significant snowfall totals throughout much of TX. You maybe getting weary of it Bordonaro, but you would probably admit that seeing so much snowfall over there this season has been mostly a delight. Except for maybe the big 1 feet of snow you got a copule of weeks ago....


On 2/11-2/12/2010, DFW AP received 12.5" of snow, breaking the all-time records for 1 calendar day snowfall and the largest 24HR snowfall. Our records go back 112 yrs!

I had about 14" of snow here in SE Arlington, TX. I have not seen that much snow since 1977, living on Long Island.

Even the winter of 1979-80 in Buffalo, NY did not have a snowfall of over 6" at a time. Although the winter total was 56", about 22" below their normal snowfall.

Here in North Central TX, in DEC-FEB, we will have periods of mild weather. After the January Freeze Fiasco, that lasted about 4 days straight in the icebox, about 5 days later, we had temps up to 79F at the Arlington, TX AP.

Sunday, 2/21, at my house, we hit 70F, for about 1 hr, then the Arctic front dropped us back into the 30's within 8 hrs.

We are now at 42F. The high for the day, AHHH!!

I just would like 1 or 2 more mild days. This month is averaging -7.5F normal.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting quakeman55:
From the NWS Mobile forecast discussion:

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED WITH TWO SYSTEMS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE GLOBAL MODELS NO LONGER AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE GFS IS NOW FAST AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW.
ANOTHER...PERHAPS STRONGER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. PARTIAL
THICKNESS VALUES ALSO INDICATE MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE WITH BOTH
SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE JUST WHERE THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE AND WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
LATER FORECASTS.


We'll see if this thing takes a more southern track this time and brings the rain/snow line closer to the coast. Would be nice. :-)


Hmm. Tallahassee and Mobile have mentioned this. Peachtree City for GA though is saying that there are way too many uncertainties to really say anything yet.
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Quoting aquak9:


geeez louise, what have I missed? Next Tuesday??

Little more info, please

hi ya'll!


A closed Polar Low will parade across TX on Su-Mo 2/28-3/1. Then it meets the relatively mild, moist GOM airmass, and the the system will bomb out, rapidly intensify over the N GOM.

And continue to intensify as it crosses the FL peninsula and moves off the SE coastline.

Be on the look-out for strong/gale force winds, heavy rain/inland snow over parts of the SE US, and possibly a widespread severe weather outbreak.

And the JOYS of the Modiki El Nino continues!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
705. unf97
Quoting Bordonaro:
Officially, at the DFW Int'l AP, TX had 0.1" of snow today and temperatures average -15F from normal!

And possibly MORE SNOW on Su/Mo 2/28-3/1 as the 850MB temps drop below freezing and a Polar Low sneeks across North Central TX.

Somebody, please, send us at least one 70F day, soon!!


It has been a historic winter season for you over there Bordonaro. Snowfall records continue on for you thanks to the El Nino. The very potent shortwave Mon-Tuesday of next week definitely has the potential to give significant snowfall totals throughout much of TX. You maybe getting weary of it Bordonaro, but you would probably admit that seeing so much snowfall over there this season has been mostly a delight. Except for maybe the big 1 feet of snow you got a copule of weeks ago....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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