Russia's Pole of Cold hits -70°F: Europe's 2nd coldest reading of all-time

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on February 22, 2010

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The notorious Russian winter, bane of the armies of Napoleon and Hitler, has been in classic form during the winter of 2010 . Brutal cold has been the rule this winter in the European portion of Russia, and at 9am local time on Friday, February 19, the town of Hoseda-Hard, Russia hit a remarkable -70°F (-56.4°C)--the second coldest temperature ever measured in Europe. Hoseda-Hard is located in extreme northeastern Europe, 90 miles (145 km) south of the Arctic Ocean and about 150 miles (240 km) west of the Ural Mountains and the boundary of Asia. The town lies in a shallow river valley (elevation 84 meters) where cold air tends to pool. The surrounding region is known as Europe's "Pole of Cold". The coldest temperature ever recorded in Europe was an extraordinary -72.6°F (-58.1°C) in the Pole of Cold's Ust'Schugor (64.15°N 57.45°) on December 31, 1978. The nearby city of Pechora, the largest city in the region (population: 50,000), is also well-known for its extreme temperatures. Pechora boasts Europe's third coldest temperature, a -68.8°F (-56.0°C) reading observed on February 9, 1946. It is likely that Hoseda-Hard got a degree or two colder than the remarkable -70°F measured on Friday, since the station only reported temperatures once every three hours. The high temperature Friday in Hoseda-Hard was a not-so-balmy -49°F (-45°C)!


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for February 19, 2010. Temperatures at Europe's "Pole of Cold" (dark purple colors) were more than 40°F (22°C) below average. The white dot marks the location of Hoseda-Hard, Russia, which recorded a remarkable -70°F (-56.4°C) at 9am local time that day--the second coldest temperature ever measured in Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 2. A monument in Europe's "Pole of Cold" near Hoseda-Hard, Russia, marking the location of the Arctic Circle. Image credit: Mactak.

Exceptional February heat in Africa
I credit weather historian and extreme weather expert Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, for pointing out the incredible cold in Russia on Friday. Chris also noted that on Saturday, February 20, the temperature in Birni-N'Konni, Niger hit 112°F (44.3°C). This is just 3°F (1.7°C) below the warmest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere in February--the 115°F reading from Abeche, Chad (date unknown).

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Jeff Masters

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Newt Gindrich...a good and fair and balanced guest.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
Well I'm off to watch O'Reilly.

In case you missed it, Bill Nye and Joe Bastardi are going to be debating Global Warming on the Factor tonight, which airs at 8pm eastern time on the Fox News Channel. I hope some of you get to see it.

Back after the show!
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Bastardi will kick Nye’s arse! Look at the proof! Record snow fall in the U.S. What more proof do you need? As the superpower U.S, goes, so goes the world. That’s common knowledge.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
This out of Tallahassee. Unreal!

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDE YET ANOTHER IN A LONG SERIES OF ARCTIC OUTBREAKS TO THE
SOUTH. WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL INDICATE
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. IN ANY
EVENT...THIS SHOWS LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 20S IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. OF COURSE...EVEN MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY).
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT OUR UNUSUALLY COLD WINTER
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THURS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FRI MORNING WHEN A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A WEAK GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE GFS...AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS...FORECAST PARTIAL THICKNESSES
AND WETBULB TEMPERATURE PROFILES THAT COULD SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX
FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (I-10
NORTHWARD). SO MUCH DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW
THAT WE WANT TO SEE CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS BEFORE ADDING THIS TO
OUR FORECAST. FOR NOW WE ADJUSTED OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO THAT
NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT MORNING...EVEN
THOUGH THE GFS MOS FORECASTS FREEZING TEMPERATURES. YET ANOTHER GULF
LOW IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND ONCE AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. IN FACT...THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO THE FEB 10 SNOW STORM.
UNLESS THE MODEL RUNS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE UPCOMING MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST COULD BE VERY INTERESTING.
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New Info at the end

Dr.Masters "Chris Burt...noted that on Saturday, February 20, the temperature in Birni-N'Konni, Niger hit 112degreesF (44.3degreesC). This is just 3degreesF (1.7degreesC) below the warmest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere in February--the 115degreesF reading from Abeche, Chad (date unknown)."

errm...no. According to the WorldMeteorologicalOrganization, on 9February2010, Rio de Janeiro reached 46.3degreesCelsius/115.34degreesFahrenheit. Which "made Rio the hottest place on the planet...save for Ada...Ghana..." ie Ada,Ghana is highly likely to have set a new February high temperature record for the NorthernHemisphere.

"The 46.3 degrees Celsius recorded in Rio was unsurpassed worldwide, except in the town of Ada in eastern Ghana, which came in two degrees higher, the World Meteorological Organization reported."
48.3degreesCelsius is equal to 118.94degreesFahrenheit.
Definitely a new high temperature record for February in the NorthernHemisphere.

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Anybody know the particulars of the ECMF run for next week? Another deep south storm or storms?
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I just saw that on JB's blog! Cool! I'll bet he talks ircles around Bill Nye!


I bet! =) I can't wait.
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Quoting Levi32:
Announcement:

If anyone is interested, Bill Nye and Accuweather's Joe Bastardi will be on the O'Reilly Factor tonight debating Global Warming. The O'Reilly Factor airs at 8pm eastern time on the Fox News Channel.

I'm totally watching this. It should be very interesting.


I just saw that on JB's blog! Cool! I'll bet he talks circles around Bill Nye!
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Quoting Ossqss:
Coincidence? Makes ya wonder about the inter-relationship again :)

Five earthquakes strike Tonga region after a Cyclone last week

How Storms Can Trigger Earthquakes
Scientists are increasingly pointing to storms as a trigger for earthquakes and mudslides. That's raising questions about the effects that climate change might have on one of the world's deadliest natural catastrophes, and to what extent, if any, insurers and governments could be adapting to the interplay between atmosphere and earth.

New evidence (pdf) shows that atmospheric low pressure systems can prompt the landslide to lurch downward. Pressure drops when warm daytime air results in low "tides," or when fast-moving storms race onto the scene. The effect on landslides and earthquakes only occurs when the pressure plummets suddenly, causing underground water and air to shoot toward the surface.

That reduces friction between grinding subterranean plates, or under a landslide that's been held immobile by abrasive dirt and rocks.

"Slides, earthquakes, glaciers, volcanic eruptions -- all of these things involve soil sliding on soil, or rock sliding on rock," explains William Schulz, a research scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey and the author of a study published this month in the journal Nature Geoscience. "And sliding is resisted primarily by one thing, and that's friction."

Typhoons can make plates slip

The same conclusion was reached by scientists in Taiwan this June. A study (pdf) published in the journal Nature described how low pressure accompanying typhoons sparked small earthquakes along the fault between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate. The scientists note that they make "a definitive connection between fault slip and changes in atmospheric pressure."

Importantly, both studies say weather impacts can accelerate an earthly act that was bound to happen sooner or later. In other words, low pressure is not the cause of an earthquake, just the trigger.

The findings follow warnings about strengthening thunderstorms related to higher levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Heavier downpours are already being observed in the United States, said Jerry Meehl, a climatologist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

"The lower the pressure, the more intense the storm would be," he said. "One idea is that the warmer air is holding more moisture, and when you have a storm start up, it has more moisture source, and moisture source can provide energy to the storm, and it can make it a bit more intense."

Meehl noted that the evidence is limited. He added, however, that wintertime storms in mid-latitude regions, areas about halfway between the equator and the poles, are "definitely associated with lows -- low-pressure systems."

"In summer, it's more just convection, where the ground heats up and you get vertical motion and you get the afternoon thunderstorms," he added.
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/11/20/20climatewire-how-storms-can-trigger-earthquakes-28304.html
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Quoting Levi32:
Announcement:

If anyone is interested, Bill Nye and Accuweather's Joe Bastardi will be on the O'Reilly Factor tonight debating Global Warming. The O'Reilly Factor airs at 8pm eastern time on the Fox News Channel.

I'm totally watching this. It should be very interesting.

No online stream i guess ...
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


What's the comparison for 2004, 2005, and 2010?


Well 2004 had us heading into an El Nino, not out of one like we are now, so it's not the first choice for a good analogue. However, a lesson to be learned from 2004 is that even in the face of an El Nino, the large build-up of heat in the deep tropics of the Atlantic resulted in 15 named storms, most of which were concentrated west and south, and most of you know the story of what happened to Florida that year. The same pattern of warm water and net upward motion south of 20N is setting up this year, and that should never be underestimated.

2005 is a better analogue because that year was coming out of an El Nino into neutral conditions, which is what will happen during this hurricane season, although we may hit a weak La Nina before it's over. The SST pattern isn't as good of a comparison as 2007, but the overall idea is still there. The Atlantic tripole, with warm over the far north Atlantic, cool in the middle, and warm in the deep tropics, is a setup for an active season in the tropical breeding grounds.

There are many other variables to consider when predicting the hurricane season, but right now the main thing we are looking at is the ENSO and SST profiles, because it is still early. Things like wind shear, the NAO, and surface pressures in the southwest Atlantic will be things to watch as we head into May. But so far, the pattern this winter looks to be setting us up for an above-average season, and possibly a year with many landfalls in the southwest Atlantic.
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Well... Looks like the Houston, TX area may get some snow again... wow.

Here is my blog on the topic, with some guesstimates of any accumulations for the Houston area based on NWS forecasts from the last couple of days.

Jeffs713's blog
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Apparently the ENSO warm pool has flared up again:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Levi32:
2007: a recent analogue year for this hurricane season. The beginning of 2007 featured a dying El Nino which peaked in Nov/Dec 2006, very similar to this year. Also notice the strong resemblance of the Atlantic water temperature profile to this year.

2007 featured 15 named storms, most of them forming in the deep tropics, with two landfalling Cat 1 hurricanes and one tropical storm in the U.S. Two Cat 5 hurricanes made landfall in the Caribbean.







What's the comparison for 2004, 2005, and 2010?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It sure will be interesting. However, I don't like the fact that The Factor pre-records it's show...and has happened before, edits it. I like it live!


If you know anything about O'Reilly then you know when he cuts an interview before-hand, he posts the entire UN-edited interview on the Fox website. Sometimes there's just too much to put on the show, and that's legitimate.

I admit though I'd love to see it live.
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Quoting Levi32:
Announcement:

If anyone is interested, Bill Nye and Accuweather's Joe Bastardi will be on the O'Reilly Factor tonight debating Global Warming. The O'Reilly Factor airs at 8pm eastern time on the Fox News Channel.

I'm totally watching this. It should be very interesting.


It sure will be interesting. However, I don't like the fact that The Factor pre-records it's show...and has happened before, edits it. I like it live!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
Coincidence? Makes ya wonder about the inter-relationship again :)

Five earthquakes strike Tonga region after a Cyclone last week
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Announcement:

If anyone is interested, Bill Nye and Accuweather's Joe Bastardi will be on the O'Reilly Factor tonight debating Global Warming. The O'Reilly Factor airs at 8pm eastern time on the Fox News Channel.

I'm totally watching this. It should be very interesting.
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Quoting Skyepony:
In other extremes..17P has put out ~8 inches in the last 6 hrs..



All that rain was dropped by a glob of convection in one of the bands well north of 17P's center. Also, 17P is continuing to lose organization due to westerly wind shear, and has now been downgraded to a tropical depression.



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134. Skyepony (Mod)
In other extremes..17P has put out ~8 inches in the last 6 hrs..

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Quoting StormW:


Drak,
Do they have a good tutorial for the BUFKIT software?


Open the BUFKIT and look in the upper right corner and click training.
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Ice Shelves Disappearing on Antarctic Peninsula

Ice shelves are retreating in the southern section of the Antarctic Peninsula due to climate change. This could result in glacier retreat and sea-level rise if warming continues, threatening coastal communities and low-lying islands worldwide.

Research by the U.S. Geological Survey is the first to document that every ice front in the southern part of the Antarctic Peninsula has been retreating overall from 1947 to 2009, with the most dramatic changes occurring since 1990. The USGS previously documented that the majority of ice fronts on the entire Peninsula have also retreated during the late 20th century and into the early 21st century.

The ice shelves are attached to the continent and already floating, holding in place the Antarctic ice sheet that covers about 98 percent of the Antarctic continent. As the ice shelves break off, it is easier for outlet glaciers and ice streams from the ice sheet to flow into the sea. The transition of that ice from land to the ocean is what raises sea level.

“This research is part of a larger ongoing USGS project that is for the first time studying the entire Antarctic coastline in detail, and this is important because the Antarctic ice sheet contains 91 percent of Earth’s glacier ice,” said USGS scientist Jane Ferrigno. “The loss of ice shelves is evidence of the effects of global warming. We need to be alert and continually understand and observe how our climate system is changing.”
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2409


Description: This image shows ice-front retreat in part of the southern Antarctic Peninsula from 1947 to 2009. USGS scientists are studying coastal and glacier change along the entire Antarctic coastline. The southern portion of the Antarctic Peninsula is one area studied as part of this project, and is summarized in the USGS report, “Coastal-Change and Glaciological Map of the Palmer Land Area, Antarctica: 1947—2009” (map I—2600—C).
Location: USA
Photographer: , U.S. Geological Survey
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Blog update on Southern Winter Storm

Feel free to leave comments and ask questions.
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Quoting jeffs713:

I was just concentrating on colors overall, and the degree of the changes (pun intended). I see some analogue qualities, but I don't personally think it is a really close match. (better than most of the other ones I've seen, though)


Well looking at only colors isn't the best way to go. The big picture is quite similar in terms of warm and cold areas (net upward motion and subsidence). The reason it seems like a bad analogue is because you're not going to find an El Nino as strong as last year's unless you go back to 1998 or 1983. It would be nice if there was a better warm pool in the equatorial Pacific at this time in 2007, but there definitely was one in January of 2007. It's hard to get a better analogue than that. Those SST maps only go back to 1996 anyway.

Among other analogue years are 2005, 1995, and 1964, which are scary years to put up there but that's where things are headed right now.
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Quoting Levi32:


A half degree difference in the cold anomalies in the GOM doesn't matter. The point is the profile of warm in the Atlantic south of 20N and cool to the north, a positive Atlantic dipole, which means net upward motion in the deep tropics. The La Nina didn't start until September/October of 2007. That's also not that big of a difference when you consider how fast the models are putting us down into neutral ENSO territory. The '06 nino peaked in November/December just like last year's. It's a very good analogue ocean-wise.

And yes there was a warm pool by west Africa.

I was just concentrating on colors overall, and the degree of the changes (pun intended). I see some analogue qualities, but I don't personally think it is a really close match. (better than most of the other ones I've seen, though)
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That's an incredible temperature droppage from average. The blocking signatures in place have kept dropping down some late season cold air in North America to keep winter hanging on just a bit longer :(
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Quoting jeffs713:

I see some similarities, but a few differences, too.
> In 2007, there was not a warm pool by the coast of Africa, and eastern section of the MDR.
> In 2007, the waters in the GOM weren't as cooled, and the Caribbean was cooler overall.
> In 2007, there was a La Nina forming, as evidenced by the cool water on the equator between 120-140W, and the absence of any significant warm pool elsewhere around the equator (this year, we still have that warm pool around 110-170W).


A half degree difference in the cold anomalies in the GOM doesn't matter. The point is the profile of warm in the Atlantic south of 20N and cool to the north, a positive Atlantic dipole, which means net upward motion in the deep tropics. The La Nina didn't start until September/October of 2007. That's also not that big of a difference when you consider how fast the models are putting us down into neutral ENSO territory. The '06 nino peaked in November/December just like last year's. It's a very good analogue ocean-wise.

And yes there was a warm pool by west Africa.
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125. flsky
Wonderful thunderstorm just passed thru Daytona Beach Shores. Felt like summer (w/o the heat)!
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Quoting Levi32:
2007: a recent analogue year for this hurricane season. The beginning of 2007 featured a dying El Nino which peaked in Nov/Dec 2006, very similar to this year. Also notice the strong resemblance of the Atlantic water temperature profile to this year.






I see some similarities, but a few differences, too.
> In 2007, there was not a warm pool by the coast of Africa, and eastern section of the MDR.
> In 2007, the waters in the GOM weren't as cooled, and the Caribbean was cooler overall.
> In 2007, there was a La Nina forming, as evidenced by the cool water on the equator between 120-140W, and the absence of any significant warm pool elsewhere around the equator (this year, we still have that warm pool around 110-170W).
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Dr.Masters "Chris Burt...noted that on Saturday, February 20, the temperature in Birni-N'Konni, Niger hit 112degreesF (44.3degreesC). This is just 3degreesF (1.7degreesC) below the warmest temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere in February--the 115degreesF reading from Abeche, Chad (date unknown)."

errm...no. According to the WorldMeteorologicalOrganization, on 9February2010, Rio de Janeiro reached 46.3degreesCelsius/115.34degreesFahrenheit. Which "made Rio the hottest place on the planet...save for Ada...Ghana..." ie Ada,Ghana is highly likely to have set a new February high temperature record for the NorthernHemisphere.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Jeeez, don't you work at the ship channel, or something close? Dat's a nasty commute.

Nope, I work up in The Woodlands. My company has operations on the ship channel (actually, in LaPorte), but our office is in The Woodlands.
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2007: a recent analogue year for this hurricane season. The beginning of 2007 featured a dying El Nino which peaked in Nov/Dec 2006, very similar to this year. Also notice the strong resemblance of the Atlantic water temperature profile to this year.

2007 featured 15 named storms, most of them forming in the deep tropics, with two landfalling Cat 1 hurricanes and one tropical storm in the U.S. Two Cat 5 hurricanes made landfall in the Caribbean.





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Quoting jeffs713:

Whats this about Klein and Spring? (I'm in The Woodlands right now, about to move to Tomball)

Jeeez, don't you work at the ship channel, or something close? Dat's a nasty commute.
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Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I actually graduated from Klein High School last year!

Whats this about Klein and Spring? (I'm in The Woodlands right now, about to move to Tomball)
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Very nasty storm moving toward Daytona Beach right now. Could be some hail with this storm as it moves through and dangerous lightning.


Yep sure is-- sorry about the columns of info with no headers :)

I4 65 dBZ 26,000 ft. 42 kg/m? 100% chance 100% chance 1.75 in. 23 knots W (260)

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GFS 18Z RUN, Surface Map for 12 NOON CST, Tu 2/23/10 @24hrs out:

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Hi Grothar...I love this cool weather! Keeps my electric bills down and it is a nice change. I do think we will pay for it this summer in someway.
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LOL, Skepticall!
Best wishes to ya... You're probably due!

Meanwhile I'll be chanting, "c'mon CAA, dive SE / hang in there moisture!" LOL...

Hey Biff4ugo,
Yeah, it's been a very brief 2 day warm-up... back to colder than avg to end the month, on into March as appears... Before this lil warming, my local Feb mean temps had reached 9.9F below avg...
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Quoting Grothar:


Can't wait for the heat to return. No sense living in FL if you can't have it hot.
Amen! AND there's no need for snow here either...
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 850
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Some cool weather returning to so. Fla. in a few days:
Miami NWS Discussion


Can't wait for the heat to return. No sense living in FL if you can't have it hot.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Nice thunder heads building here north of Orlando looks as if storms will contiue to pop across C FL. Kindly looks like summer out here but minus the intense heat.


All where missing is the heat and sea breezes.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Nice thunder heads building here north of Orlando looks as if storms will contiue to pop across C FL. Kindly looks like summer out here but minus the intense heat.


If you look at the way the storms are building you'll see them burst real quick with convection and slowly loose it. Im pretty sure it going to keep this up all night until the passage of the front takes away the energy.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.