January 2010: extremes and monthly summary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:33 PM GMT on February 19, 2010

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:

According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.

A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.

Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).

Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.


Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.


Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.

U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::

All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.

Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.

The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.

Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.

Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.

Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.

Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).

Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)

Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.

Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.

Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.

Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.

Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).

Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.

January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.

Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting drj27:
yea someone told me it always rains around 2pm everyday there i said yea right


It does...a lot in the summer due to the seabreeze when there is enough instability. Florida sees the most number of days with thunderstorms than any other state in the U.S.

This doesn't happen much in the winter though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Quoting drj27:
yea true ill just have to keep looking at the weather untill then


You could always check my website when it comes that time at the CCHS Weather Center where I create forecasts for South, Central, and North Florida.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
511. drj27
Quoting Jeff9641:


Probably will rain one of those days but temps will be warm maybe 80's.
yea someone told me it always rains around 2pm everyday there i said yea right
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509. drj27
Quoting cchsweatherman:


That's what? About three weeks from now? Thats way too soon to tell right now.
yea true ill just have to keep looking at the weather untill then
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Quoting StormJunkie:
BOO!

Hope everyone is having a great winter. See y'all in a couple months...going back in to hibernation.


Did it take you this long to dig out of the snow up there in da Creek?
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Quoting drj27:
Can Anyone Tell me what the weather will be like in orlando march 7-11 going on vacation and hope it doesnt rain


That's what? About three weeks from now? Thats way too soon to tell right now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
506. drj27
Can Anyone Tell me what the weather will be like in orlando march 7-11 going on vacation and hope it doesnt rain
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Quoting pottery:
Good afternoon,
Interesting to read the earlier comments about Atlantic SST, SAL, Sahel Rainfall, current TCHP, Nino/Nina, etc. I too, think that all things considered we will have a far more active season than last year.
Taking all the components into account, I am looking to the SAL to be the deciding factor this year.
Surely will be an interesting one.


I agree, since the SAL is one of the last limiting factors that we're still unsure about. Based on the pattern I expect it will be near normal or slightly above, which would be good for the Cape Verde season.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Even though the attention appears focussed on Texas in regards to a potential snow storm, some attention should be paid towards Florida come Monday into early Tuesday. All three main forecasting models (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) continue to suggest a potent storm system coming through South and Central Florida during this time period.

In analyzing all three models, the NAM remains the most aggressive developing a weak surface low and moving it right across South Florida with the potential for severe storms during the late afternoon to overnight hours on Monday. This is quite evident in the 18Z NAM Southeast Composite Reflectivity.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are pretty similar in their solutions in developing a weak low that comes across the Florida Straits, but both models aren't as aggressive in showing instability evolving over South Florida. In fact, the ECMWF indicates very weak instability, if any, over South Florida on Monday. Both models, in a general consensus, just forecast scattered storms across the area.

For now, the computer models will bare watching in the coming days leading to Monday to see exactly how this weak low evolves and, especially, where the low tracks. If the low tracks south as the GFS and ECMWF suggest, then there will only be some scattered showers and thunderstorms. But if the low tracks right over South Florida as the NAM suggests, South Florida could see some severe weather with the primary threats being heavy rainfall, straightline gusts, and an isolated tornado. Only time will tell.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting StormJunkie:
BOO!

Hope everyone is having a great winter. See y'all in a couple months...going back in to hibernation.
i was wondering when you would drop by
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 202149
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SFC PLOT SHOWS DW PTS SLOWING INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR 60
COASTAL SW AND MID 50S UPPER COASTAL ZONES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS
ARE EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECT SEA FOG TO
REFORM THIS EVENING AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN MORNING.
THEREFORE..WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS AFT FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL AREAS.

TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD. FIRST IS CHC OF STRONG
TSTMS TOMORROW AND THEN WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE LOWER POP NUMBERS FROM THE NAM FOR
SUNDAY AS I THINK THE CAP IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL SEE SCT SHWRS...BUT QUESTIONABLE CONCERNING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL REALIZE WITH LITTLE SUN AND A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE. IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN...IT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE AFT HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. WILL
MENTION TSTMS AREAWIDE...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. A COUPLE
COULD BE STRONG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IF CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH.

THE LATEST GFS HAS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY CONCERNING A CHC OF SNOW
ON TUE AND INTO TUE NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ONLY MADE A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS CONCERNING THIS EVENT. ADDED
A MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE EXTREME NW ON TUE MORNING AS 1000/500
MB THICKNESSES WILL BE NEAR 540 BY MID MORNING AND THE GFS INDICATES
A BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE FOR TUE. WE MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAKE IT DOWN TO HWY 59 AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF
TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT LATE ON TUE NIGHT. STAY TUNED IT IS
STILL EARLY FOR FIGURING ALL OF THIS OUT.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PD...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF
RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 33
&&
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I think there is a lot to do with the lack of Pacific energy and moisture in the southern stream. Yesterdays models show an closed 500mb low that degenerated into a shortwave over the four corner region while still retaining a degree of vorticity and being coupled with ample moisture.
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Good afternoon,
Interesting to read the earlier comments about Atlantic SST, SAL, Sahel Rainfall, current TCHP, Nino/Nina, etc. I too, think that all things considered we will have a far more active season than last year.
Taking all the components into account, I am looking to the SAL to be the deciding factor this year.
Surely will be an interesting one.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
Nice observation Levi. I also see that flat shortwave; it looks like the vorticity shears out to the northeast as the longwave trough advects eastward. I also see the high pressure center over the Rockies diving in that northerly flow and limiting dynamic forcing.
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Quoting Levi32:


That's because the models are now much slower with the shortwave coming across Texas and doesn't allow it to phase as much with the energy coming into Minnesota from the north. The GFS has 500mb heights 600m higher over Texas than it did yesterday. The reason this results in less QPF is because the flatter shortwave isn't able to bring in a southeasterly surface flow out of the Gulf of Mexico. Without this moisture running into the arctic air coming from the north, the snow amounts would be greatly lessened.

It's all going to come down to timing of the features and this is a very tricky storm all the way across. The GFS timing of the polar vortex in Canada and the Texas shortwave have changed rather wildly from yesterday. Frankly I believe the GFS had a better handle on the system yesterday. It was handling the pattern beautifully for once.

I think you may be on to something Levi. The GFS showed three consecutive and nearly identical runs yesterday (00Z, 06Z, and 12Z) which seemed to be in uncannily good agreement with itself. Just an observation.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


I live 1.2 miles north of I-20!!


You'll get snow lol. You won't be in the axis of heaviest amounts but you will be in the snow area.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
18Z NAM Central Domain.



Based on this, I think there may be a fair chance that I will see at least one inch of snow!
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Quoting Drakoen:


It all depends on where the snow axis sets up. My current thinking is somewhere around I-20 perhaps just south of.


I live 1.2 miles north of I-20!!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. The model QPF amounts don't look as impressive as they did yesterday which is leading me to change the snowfall accumulation totals.


That's because the models are now much slower with the shortwave coming across Texas and doesn't allow it to phase as much with the energy coming into Minnesota from the north. The GFS has 500mb heights 600m higher over Texas than it did yesterday. The reason this results in less QPF is because the flatter shortwave isn't able to bring in a southeasterly surface flow out of the Gulf of Mexico. Without this moisture running into the arctic air coming from the north, the snow amounts would be greatly lessened.

It's all going to come down to timing of the features and this is a very tricky storm all the way across. The GFS timing of the polar vortex in Canada and the Texas shortwave have changed rather wildly from yesterday. Frankly I believe the GFS had a better handle on the system yesterday. It was handling the pattern beautifully for once.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Maybe this time I'll end up with more than a quarter inch of slush!


Up to an inch possible where you are is what the models are suggesting to me.
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BOO!

Hope everyone is having a great winter. See y'all in a couple months...going back in to hibernation.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

I suspect that the next 3 or 4 runs off GFS/NAM will give us a better heads up of how much snow we will receive.

And I did double check, 2" of new snow will make the total 17.7", which would be a new record!!

It is truly amazing to have 14" of snow on the ground here in DFW, TX. I live in SE Arlington, TX. The morning after 2-12-10, I trekked over to visit an elderly neighbor and take a picture of her snow covered yarsd and there was about 14" of wet heavy snow all across her open yard.


It all depends on where the snow axis sets up. My current thinking is somewhere around I-20 perhaps just south of.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Maybe this time I'll end up with more than a quarter inch of slush!

You may receive more than that. Please understand, you're in College Station, TX. DFW, TX normally receives 2.5" of snow a winter, so I am sure your average is close to 0.5" of snow a winter.

Double checked and updated the numbers!
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Maybe this time I'll end up with more than a quarter inch of slush!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. The model QPF amounts don't look as impressive as they did yesterday which is leading me to change the snowfall accumulation totals.

I suspect that the next 3 or 4 runs off GFS/NAM will give us a better heads up of how much snow we will receive.

And I did double check, 2" of new snow will make the total 17.7", which would be a new record!!

It is truly amazing to have 14" of snow on the ground here in DFW, TX. I live in SE Arlington, TX. The morning after 2-12-10, I trekked over to visit an elderly neighbor and take a picture of her snow covered yarsd and there was about 14" of wet heavy snow all across her open yard.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


All it takes is 2" to set a new all time one season snowfall record for the DFW area. Our records go back to 1898.


Yea. The model QPF amounts don't look as impressive as they did yesterday which is leading me to change the snowfall accumulation totals.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The NAM 12z bufkit is showing dendritic growth temperatures between -10C and -15C between 13,000 to 15,000ft but the highest omega values are below the dendrite zone which typically yields low snow to water ratios since there is a lack of dynamic lift. Using a 9:1 ratio the Dallas-Forthworth area would see 1-2 inches based on the NAM.


All it takes is 2" to set a new all time one season snowfall record for the DFW area. Our records go back to 1898.
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The NAM 12z bufkit is showing dendritic growth temperatures between -10C and -15C between 13,000 to 15,000ft but the highest omega values are below the dendrite zone which typically yields low snow to water ratios since there is a lack of dynamic lift. Using a 9:1 ratio the Dallas-Forthworth area would see 1-2 inches based on the NAM.
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Quoting Drakoen:
18z NAM:



Here Drak, NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX are ALL over this one, expecting < 4" of snow total, but stay tuned!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
235 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX
ARRIVES TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL REACH WEST TEXAS
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND NORTH TEXAS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE CWA FROM BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. GFS
HAS CAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 J/KG WHILE BULK SHEAR IS BEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SOME STORMS MAY BE MARGINAL SEVERE WITH
HAIL POTENTIAL UP TO NICKLE SIZE. THE WIND THREAT REMAINS LOW.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY THAT WILL ELONGATE WEST-EAST BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST NORTH TEXAS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE GOOD SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS STATED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...LOW
LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. ALSO THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE MID 30S WHERE THE
SNOW POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. HAVE GONE WITH A SNOW/RAIN MIX SOUTH
OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS LINE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
JUST SNOW ELSEWHERE WITH LITTLE NORTH OF I-20. BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF... SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE VERY HARD TO PREDICT...THUS EXPECT
SEVERAL INCHES IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO LINE.
THIS WILL BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PATH OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMES CLEARER. NO WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME AS WE THINK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA (4" OR MORE IN 12HRS).


DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY. 75
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18z NAM:

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24 Hour Forecast (VT: 20/18Z FEB 2010
WEAX for USCGC WALNUT MOVREP DTG: 150118ZFEB10 UNCLASSIFIED


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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
points to general area may be off due to image not at scale


Good point that's probably true.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Quoting Levi32:


Lol they picked the wrong low to point at. That arrow points to the area of low pressure just east of 94P. 94P will likely absorb that area with time.
points to general area may be off due to image not at scale
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Lol they picked the wrong low to point at. That arrow points to the area of low pressure just east of 94P. 94P will likely absorb that area with time.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
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T.C.F.A. soon for SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN near 7s166w
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Quoting StormW:


Nice burst!


609

ABPW10 PGTW 200600

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND

/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZFEB2010//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S

166.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 165.5W, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM

NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

CONTINUES TO SHOW POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD

TROUGHING. HOWEVER, 200439Z SSMI AND 200037Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGES

SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL

ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM INTO A 35-KNOT

TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED NATURE

OF THE LLCC EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND FUTURE MODEL

DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.


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Quoting hurricane23:


Hey levi!

The European model for May -July which shows an excessive area of below-average MSLP in the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. As you stated sst's are above normal across the eastern atl i.e; main development region which may induce and early start to the cape-verde season. Pretty good bet on Neutral ENSO by july early august timeframe. Should be an interesting few months. adrian



Hey Adrian good to see ya :)

Yup things look to be shaping up for an above-average year. The European has been showing a large heat surplus in tropical breeding grounds of the Atlantic. This would be the complete opposite of last year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Quoting leftovers:
aug 1st is the real deal


Yea, but I like to look out well before hand, so IMO whenever we start blob watching, stalking, and having whole blogs worth of discussion about (usually around Late April or Early May) thats when Hurricane season for me starts. And May 1st is when I go out and look for Hurricane supplies anyways.
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Quoting Levi32:


It is but this hurricane season could get off to an early start with the above-normal SSTs and forecasted lower-than-normal pressures in the Caribbean. That will be the place to watch for early season action.


Hey levi!

The European model for May -July which shows an excessive area of below-average MSLP in the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. As you stated sst's are above normal across the eastern atl i.e; main development region which may induce and early start to the cape-verde season. Pretty good bet on Neutral ENSO by july early august timeframe. Should be an interesting few months. adrian

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Quoting StormW:


Some hot towers goin' up.


Yep... And the tower ended up being a beautiful burst of convection. Check out the latest frame.

Photobucket
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Quoting Levi32:
Oh man....absolutely beautiful little invest here. Sunrise visible shot of 94P...the center is right under that small CDO.

In my opinion this is easily a tropical depression right now.



Very nice outflow pattern, especially on the northern side.
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Oh man....absolutely beautiful little invest here. Sunrise visible shot of 94P...the center is right under that small CDO.

In my opinion this is easily a tropical depression right now.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Quoting leftovers:
aug 1st is the real deal


It is but this hurricane season could get off to an early start with the above-normal SSTs and forecasted lower-than-normal pressures in the Caribbean. That will be the place to watch for early season action.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Ok I did more reading..

Based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, it was founded in 1995 as an offshoot of the University of Michigan's Internet weather database. The name is a tongue-in-cheek reference to the 1960s militant radical leftist student group the Weather Underground, which also originated at the University of Michigan.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
For me, Hurricane season Starts in 70 days. May 1st is when we all start looking for pre-season oddities and the EPAC's first few storms.

Wouldn't that be weird though, if we get a May tropical cyclone for the 4th year in a row?


Yeah, forgot about the depression last year.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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