January 2010: extremes and monthly summary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:33 PM GMT on February 19, 2010

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:

According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.

A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.

Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).

Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.


Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.


Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.

U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::

All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.

Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.

The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.

Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.

Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.

Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.

Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).

Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)

Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.

Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.

Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.

Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.

Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).

Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.

January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.

Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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663. beell
Axis of best isentropic ascent of moisture on the 300k surface to the snow growth zone over San Angelo, TX (KJST). Somewhere between 550/650 mb as a rough estimate.
5-6" of snow possible.

Based on the 12ZNAM, valid 12Z Tuesday.

Photobucket

Direct link to graphic
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Based on analog years for the past five hurricane seasons, and early-season SST anomalies, I predict that the 2010 hurricane season will produce:

16 named storms
7 major hurricanes
7 Caribbean storms
5 Cape Verde storms
4 US landfalling hurricanes
9 storms in the current >+1.0C anomaly area from the Canary Islands to Western Caribbean
4 retired names
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF 12z has a major historic snowstorm affecting the Sun belt region in 7-8 days.


What a beautiful Upper Level Low.
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WOCN11 CWTO 212010
Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region. 3:10 PM EST Sunday
21 February 2010.

Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

A developing low pressure system over Oklahoma will track slowly
northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow.

Snow in advance of this system is forecast to reach the Windsor area
after midnight, spread through the rest of Southwestern Ontario on
Monday morning, then reach the Toronto to Barrie area by early
afternoon.

The snow is expected continue into the evening hours on Monday, then
taper off from west to east overnight and Tuesday morning.
For regions in Southwestern Ontario, especially near the Lake Erie
shoreline, the precipitation will likely change to wet snow or rain
before ending. Some freezing rain is also probable in this area.

Total snowfall amounts for most regions are expected to be in the 10
to 15 cm range.

At this time, snowfall or freezing rain warning criteria are not
expected to be reached. However, some uncertainty still exists and
Environment Canada continues to closely monitor this developing
situation.

Listen for further statements. Additional information may also be
found by consulting the latest public forecast. The next public
forecast will be issued by 3.30 PM.

END/OSPC


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53517
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Those graphics only update every 12 hours for the 00Z and 12Z runs.

Aha! Thanks.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Ooh that's the march 2-3 one I've been paying a little attention too. Do you think it's likely to happen?


The GFS is showing something similar as well. Definitely something to keep and eye on.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Ooh that's the march 2-3 one I've been paying a little attention too. Do you think it's likely to happen?
march roars in like a lion
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53517
Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF 12z has a major historic snowstorm affecting the Sun belt region in 7-8 days.




Ooh that's the march 2-3 one I've been paying a little attention too. Do you think it's likely to happen?
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The ECMWF 12z has a major historic snowstorm affecting the Sun belt region in 7-8 days.


Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Quoting atmoaggie:
No sneaux, but GFS not seeing much over 50F for 5 days in NOLA...
(though, I cannot tell if this is from the 6 Z or 12 Z run...important as it could only be showing 6 pm and 6 am)


Those graphics only update every 12 hours for the 00Z and 12Z runs.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One to bookmark as we slide into 2010

ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)
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As a matter of interest, the temp on my shaded patio is now 94F, with smoke in the air.
Not very nice.......
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Benirica, no way to accurately forecast the SAL as yet.
In fact, the recent forecasts for that have been pretty wrong.
Heavy SAL would tamp-down waves in the mid atlantic, but would not affect waves in the Caribbean as much.
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Relix, the forecast is for a Neutral el nino.
So that would suggest a wetter than usual season in the Carib.
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646. Relix
Just chiming in to ask if this will be a neutral season with El Nino passing away? Neutral years are usually the worst for us here in the Caribbean right?
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Quoting Levi32:


That's El Nino for ya...the entire Caribbean is typically dry during a warm ENSO. You guys will probably see that reverse this summer though. It looks like tropical waves will have a good chance of retaining moisture and making it into the Caribbean to give you guys a soaking, hopefully not in the form of hurricanes, but there will definitely be a few of those in the Caribbean this year.


when will we likely see our first tropical wave
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Hurricane Preparation 2010
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Any way of knowing how the SAL will be?
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Hmmm. Reading the forecasts here, for a wetter than recent WetSeason in the Caribbean. And looking at the photos from Madiera!!.
We (Trinidad) have really been blessed so far with the heavy rainfall that comes with Tropical Waves etc.
The Capital City (Port-of-Spain) is situated at the foot of the hills and in the 'mouth' of several large steep valleys. Most of the Towns along the south slopes of the Northern Range are similarly situated in Valleys with rivers and streams.
We frequently have isolated heavy flooding in these towns, when a cloudburst can dump 4" in 2-3 hrs and the rivers overflow their banks. But no lasting damage and few if any injuries.
But sustained heavy rain, on saturated hillsides would be the recipe for real trouble.
I am looking forward to a more active Hurricane season this year, but I sure dont wish for any Horrors here or anywhere else.
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Thanks levi32!
Let's hope we get rain soon, fires will kick up soon here if it doesn't! But I'm crossing my fingers that rain is neither nonstop nor in the form of a tropical storm or hurricane.
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Ahh, just saw my question answered on another post. It will get wet here again once el niño switches off (or neutral).
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Quoting benirica:
Forgive my ignorance, but how reliable is a model in February calling for an above average rainy May for the Caribbean?
Thanks for that info by the way!


Climate models should be taken with a grain of salt, but they usually do a fairly good job in the short-term (3-6 months). What makes me confident in this particular forecast is the fact that we are in a dying El Nino. This along with the SST profile in the Atlantic supports the model forecast.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'm out for now. Later all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
Forgive my ignorance, but how reliable is a model in February calling for an above average rainy May for the Caribbean?
Thanks for that info by the way!
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
818 am CST sun Feb 21 2010



Synopsis...
..sounding discussion...


No problems with the flight this morning. The sounding shows
something we have not seen in quite a few days this morning...that
being a precipitable water value over one inch. The moisture is confined to the
lower 15k feet of the atmosphere and is non existent above that.
Still a bit of a warm nose from 850mb to the surface which is
expected to fade by this afternoon and evening. Some decent
directional shear in place but not much in the way of speed shear
this morning with less than 20 knots through 6km. A decision on a
special sounding will be made soon...but the normal release time of
18z for the special sounding may still be too early. The regular
00z synoptic flight will likely be a better indicator of what is on
the way tonight.

98/so

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CST sun Feb 21 2010/


Short term...
some severe weather situations are clear cut...not this one. A warm front
passes through the region today. Ts break out ahead of the cold
front moreso along a prefrontal trough. Relatively weak to
moderate upper and middle level support normally lend to less than
severe ts activity. But there will be an opportunity for convection
to go surface based by evening. This will give rise to the possibility
of a severe ts. Will go with what we already have in the severe weather potential statement...mostly
strong with isolated severe ts possible showing variables of hail and
damaging winds being the main hazards. Can't say there will be no
tornadic activity...but directional shear is weak with and only
shows up to 250 m2/s2 helicity values from 0-3km depth. This value
ofcourse changes along any boundary and we will see the warm
frontal boundary and a cold front boundary move through the area
which will increase this value as they move through. Basically the
only places if any that a spin up would be located would be along
these boudary environments. The actual cold front is lagging a bit
and finally moves through after midnight.


SW jet continues to be quite active over the area. The surface low
helps lift moisture well into the upper levels where the jet can
get access to it. The jet then brings and deposits this moisture
over Texas la and miss on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The question on
everyones mind is with the cold air advection ongoing at the time
will we see some wintry mix. This is going to be a close one...the
moisture is moving out as the column finally gets to or below
freezing. The middle level ridge providing the cold air...that
continues to move into the area...is also forcing the moisture
shield southeast. If there will be an opportunity for any frozen precipitation
it will be on the very back edge of the moisture. Will continue
with the ongoing fcast at this time as confidence in this happening is
very low.


Long term...
next system develops Friday near brn. A weak frontal system will move out
of Texas at about the same time. The Gulf low looks to become the
dominant feature and throws a lot of moisture over cool air
already in place over the Gulf south Friday night into Sat morning.
Other than rainfall...no issues are expected with this system.


We should begin to see the next more significant system develop
over Texas starting Sunday. Eventhough this is seven plus days
out...confidence is quite high with this system developing and
the surface low moving through the deep south. This would be the
system to watch since it will want to occlude as it is moving
through and should be able to provide a deep moist column as
synoptic forcing is found over the deep Gulf where warmer temperatures
are located. Will leave this scenario out of severe weather potential statement for now...but
only because it falls outside current fcast cycle
.
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Quoting Drakoen:
In any case the NWS offices in Texas need to up their totals or they are going to end up with another forecast bust like what happened with the last system that gave significant snow to Texas.


Indeed. You'd think they'd follow the model QPF amounts with fierce loyalty like they usually do.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
In any case the NWS offices in Texas need to up their totals or they are going to end up with another forecast bust like what happened with the last system that gave significant snow to Texas.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hi guys again
how are you guys doing
what is the latest view on this Atlantic hurricane season and
we need more rain I feel like a fish out of water


That's El Nino for ya...the entire Caribbean is typically dry during a warm ENSO. You guys will probably see that reverse this summer though. It looks like tropical waves will have a good chance of retaining moisture and making it into the Caribbean to give you guys a soaking, hopefully not in the form of hurricanes, but there will definitely be a few of those in the Caribbean this year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
Hi guys again
how are you guys doing
what is the latest view on this Atlantic hurricane season and
we need more rain I feel like a fish out of water
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The CMC 12z looks as dreadful as the NAM 00z.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Quoting Drakoen:


I think they will see 1-2 inches in the southern metroplex. It really is a shame to see such a sharp cut off but it looks like the models are picking up on the this northerly flow quite well to inhibit snowfall.


Yeah it is a shame...I agree with the 1-2 inches sneaking up into the southern metro. Hopefully they get just enough to sneak this record through. They have a better shot at it if the ECMWF is right, which spreads low to mid-level moisture all the way up to the TX/OK border. Tiny variations will mean a lot here for Dallas.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
Current global SSTs...notice the <20C zone of the Humboldt shrinking further, as the area at 30N has a coolest temperature of 19C and the coolest anywhere in the current is a warm 17C.

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting benirica:
Hey everyone! Good morning to all!
It's been a while since I've been around here.
Just wanted to say, it's incredible how hot and dry it has been in Puerto Rico!!
January was the rainiest in a long time (but we got all that rain in a 2 - 4 day period) and now February has panned out to be one of the driest ever. Apart from being so dry it is also very hot. We hit 90 last week, something that on average shouldn't happen until mid March (usually around March 18).
It FINALLY rained yesterday and a bit today.
Could this be a sign of this year's hurricane season?
I guess it can mean the ocean is hotter, but this dry spell also means the air is dry, which doesn't help tropical systems.
Any thoughts?
Quoting pottery:
Hi Benirica.
Welcome to the "Hot Dry Club"
90 f right now here with 46% humidity.


Momentarily hot and dry for now, and only going to get hotter. However low pressure will soon fill the Caribbean and bring in wetter-than average weather by May (bad for the Amazon). By July, air pressure will be below normal and air temperatures, SSTs, and precipitation will all be above normal, with the WHWP setting off early and the warm anomaly stretching from Spain to West Africa to most of the Caribbean (wasn't this big even in 2005), caused by the slowing of the North Atlantic Gyre, to fill up into the Caribbean and GOM, leading to an active hurricane season (like 2004 and 2005).
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah the UKMET has slightly lower heights than the GFS too but that's still really close for Dallas. I think the phasing comes too late for significant snow in Dallas, and snow ends very fast for everyone once the shortwave moves off to the east and the northerly flow chokes off all the moisture. I really hope they get their 2 inches though lol.


I think they will see 1-2 inches in the southern metroplex. It really is a shame to see such a sharp cut off but it looks like the models are picking up on the this northerly flow quite well to inhibit snowfall.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Just took a look at the GFS 12z bufkit data between San Angelo and Waco and i'm seeing totals anywhere from 6-10 inches. What's creating such high totals is the omega maximum around -35 lining up within the dentritic growth zone up near 13,000ft-15,000ft with steep mid level lapse rates.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
626. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Enjoy dis one Ike,..15 years ago now


LOL....thanks....
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Quoting Drakoen:


Did you look at the ECMWF on that shortwave?



Yeah the UKMET has slightly lower heights than the GFS too but that's still really close for Dallas. I think the phasing comes too late for significant snow in Dallas, and snow ends very fast for everyone once the shortwave moves off to the east and the northerly flow chokes off all the moisture. I really hope they get their 2 inches though lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
Quoting Levi32:
Man this is going to be close for Dallas to try to get 2 inches and break their all-time snow record. The shortwave looks like it ends up being too flat and the low-level convergence zone at 5000 feet sets up just south of I-20, with a sharp cutoff to the north due to a strong northerly flow bringing in dry, arctic air behind the system.

12z GFS 54-hour 500mb:



12z GFS 54-hour 850mb:





Did you look at the ECMWF on that shortwave?

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Enjoy dis one Ike,..15 years ago now
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No sneaux, but GFS not seeing much over 50F for 5 days in NOLA...
(though, I cannot tell if this is from the 6 Z or 12 Z run...important as it could only be showing 6 pm and 6 am)

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting RitaEvac:
GFS is pounding Arctic outbreaks first week of March like a bull in a china cabinet. Looks like March coming in like a Lion


The first 2 weeks of March are probably going to be nasty. The GFS is showing the replenishing of the arctic airmass over Canada due to a cross-polar flow created by the amplified block over Alaska. This will really juice up the pattern for the east half of the U.S. for the next couple weeks. You guys haven't had a true arctic airmass to the north for a while now.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
Quoting Patrap:
Thanx Drak...Spring is a welcomed one this year.
Been too cold here,..we may hit 70F here for the first time in 2010.

??? Look at Jan 20 to 23...
Though, overall, yes has been well below average since...mid Dec?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Man this is going to be close for Dallas to try to get 2 inches and break their all-time snow record. The shortwave looks like it ends up being too flat and the low-level convergence zone at 5000 feet sets up just south of I-20, with a sharp cutoff to the north due to a strong northerly flow bringing in dry, arctic air behind the system.

12z GFS 54-hour 500mb:



12z GFS 54-hour 850mb:



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
More freezes on the way if this pans out for the deep south
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GFS is pounding Arctic outbreaks first week of March like a bull in a china cabinet. Looks like March coming in like a Lion
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Thanx Drak...Spring is a welcomed one this year.
Been too cold here,..we may hit 70F here for the first time in 2010.
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Invest 94P has really ramped up overnight, and has for the first time developed a large, sustained CDO. Some westerly wind shear is beginning to affecting the system, and as a result the surface center is located under the NW edge of the CDO. Convection and outflow are also very limited on the western side of the system. This shear is due to the sub-tropical jet that I've mentioned the last few days. This jet doesn't look like it wants to move much, and this could be a big problem for 94P if it continues to move southeastward. A TCFA has been issued for Invest 94P, but this system was easily a TD yesterday, and is probably worthy of a name right now. I expect further gradual strengthening of the system today, but increasing wind shear will likely cap this storm at 45-50 knots. A general slow south to southeasterly motion will continue over the next few days.



^^Click the image for a loop^^
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
Quoting Patrap:
Drak,..can ya give me a McComb,Miss update as I was really impressed with ya last McComb forecast on last weeks snow storm.

Im terrible with these storms on Land.

Thanx


Prospects for McComb don't look that great. The GFS and UKMET shows dry northerly flow encroaching in the wake of the precipitation of the significant precipitation. Any light precip looks to be in the form of virga. The NAM 12Z shows positive vorticity advection in the form of sheared vorticity in an elongated positively tilted trough. This would give McComb around 1-2inches of snow. The CMC shows suspect light precipitation when 850mb temperatures get under 0C; which may yield trace amounts of snow.

Right now I would say a 10% chance of snow. Your best bet would be to drive over between Alexandria and Shreveport if you really want to see snow.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30157
Mark your calendar for the 2010 conference
March 29-April 2 * Hilton Orlando, Orlando, Florida



Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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