January 2010: extremes and monthly summary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:33 PM GMT on February 19, 2010

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:

According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.

A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.

Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).

Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.


Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.


Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.

U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::

All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.

Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.

The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.

Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.

Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.

Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.

Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).

Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)

Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.

Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.

Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.

Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.

Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).

Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.

Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.

January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.

Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Humm ?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
When the ice at the north pole is gone, the greenhouse effect we have currently will double, because of the lost SHIELD, which reflects sunlight - contributing to the warmth.
Most of the Co2 goes into the ocean rightnow, but the capacity is not endless, and the ocean will stop acting as a heat sink - so to speak. Same goes for other carbon sinks.

It is explained here (4 parts)


Even if the earth warmed enough to melt the icecap.....who's to say that threatens life when the dinosaurs likely lived in an ice-free world...

Antarctic ice records show much higher concentrations of CO2 and higher temperatures back in the dinosaur age than anything we are dreaming of now.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
Quoting dsauder:
To: 193 drg0dOwnCountry

While your movie sounds fine on the face of it, someone please explain to me how the alleged tiny temperature rise can have such dramatic effects.
When the ice at the north pole is gone, the greenhouse effect we have currently will double, because of the lost SHIELD, which reflects sunlight - contributing to the warmth.
Most of the Co2 goes into the ocean rightnow, but the capacity is not endless, and the ocean will stop acting as a heat sink - so to speak. Same goes for other carbon sinks.

It is explained here (4 parts)
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Now too wet to plant, can't win.

Quoting centex:
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I didn't think you get a response on that saint simons island guy. Because its not even being discussed by the media and the Gw antagonist haven't had a chance to come up with contrived data to refute this. This has been much more relevant to be me, in the true danger to earth. I believe anyone can see the danger of the smallest organism in the ocean disappearing.
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To: 193 drg0dOwnCountry

While your movie sounds fine on the face of it, someone please explain to me how the alleged tiny temperature rise can have such dramatic effects.

I seriously doubt that a 3/4 degree C rise in the temperature of the lower atmosphere over the last century represents enough gigajoules of heat to melt any significant amount of polar ice.

Can someone please help me with the math behind that claim? I suspect that other factors have a much larger effect on the ice caps than AGW.

Let's remember, that the earth is basically a large molten welding spark with a very thin cooler skin. The very fact that the tectonic plates move at all, proves that there are powerful subterranean currents in the molten core that certainly affect the temperature of the surface. That is why there are earthquakes from time to time.

I am really tired of individuals who make micro observations of this or that and then extrapolate the data to fit their imagined effects.

It clearly seems that visions of fame seriously affects these wild predictions.

Who wouldn't want to be the savior of the planet? Trouble is, humans are not nearly as significant as they like to think they are.
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Good news for TX, the drought that gripped mamy portions of my state has been declared over. Link to article below:

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
NAM 00Z 2/20/10 update is running now. can't wait to see the GFS 00Z update.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Lol, someone got 94P's position very wrong, putting the center north of 4S, when in reality the real center is closer to 7S. This is easy to see in satellite imagery and multi-platform analysis, where I have labeled the real position of the center of 94P.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
Quoting Bordonaro:


Did they hint or mention accumulation amounts yet??
Only not expecting any in central texas at this time.
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199. xcool
Funds would boost satellite, radar systems


FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Under President Barack Obama's proposed 2011 budget, more than $1 billion would be spent to upgrade forecasting technology with next-generation satellites and radar.

In all, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, is requesting $5.6 billion, an $806 million increase.

Among NOAA's major objectives:

Geostationary Satellites — To strengthen forecasts for tropical storms and other severe weather, NOAA wants to launch the first of two next-generation weather satellites by 2015.

New radar — To improve severe weather warnings, including tornadoes, the weather service plans to install a sophisticated radar, called multifunction phased radar, across the nation by 2020.

Space weather — To detect solar flare-ups, NOAA plans to launch a satellite before 2012.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/nation/story/355CFC2129ED3677862576CF000D8ACA?Ope nDocument

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Update on Invest 94P:

0z full-disks are in. Invest 94P has taken over as the most prominent and organized circulation within the area of disturbed weather in the central equatorial Pacific. Animated visible satellite imagery reveals a well-defined, closed low-level circulation, located in the bottom left corner of the animation below. 94P is embedded in the western end of a surface trough that extends ENE towards Kiritimati, where the remnants of Invest 90C have degenerated over the equator and become part of the trough. Widespread moderate to strong convection has persisted along the trough axis for several days now.

Convection remains limited near and south of the center, but there is strong convective banding in the northern semicircle. Equatorial outflow looks healthy, but the polar outflow channel is being limited by an upper low to the southwest over Samoa. An upper long-wave trough to the southeast is jamming in dry air from the south, which is the reason for limited convection on the south side of the system. The weakness left in the subtropical ridge by this same trough should allow a slow south or southeastward drift, but since the trough is leaving 94P behind, steering currents are very weak, and 94P could remain in the same general area for several days. A possible upper cutoff low left behind by the passing longwave trough may continue to cause interference with 94P's efforts to organize further, but I expect gradual development of the system to continue over the next several days.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
Quoting centex:
The snow experts at the Austin/SA office are saying "SNOW IS ALMOST CERTAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA BETWEEN
LUBBOCK...JUNCTION AND EAST TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX."


Did they hint or mention accumulation amounts yet??
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Some food for thought! Free application?

I know I will not look at my web Cam's the same way....

TGIF all, out >>>

IT run amok: Pa. school allegedly spied on students via webcams

* Date: February 19th, 2010




Rockwell Rock Remix - Somebody's Watching Me--LOL

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Quoting atmoaggie:

Seems that I read something about monomania in the rules at some point...

One would think that repeating the same posts over and over again would qualify.
OK, she's coming down the stairs now (and ragging me "are you still on that GD blog?") so I REALLY am leaving now. Been a lurker here for years and would love to have a real discussion with you on the math behind weather models sometime. I'll be back on Monday (she, boats, and golf are more important on the weekends...yes, really!)
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LoL, I guess my work will force me into rehab ª¿ª

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:
000
WWUS84 KFWD 192106
SPSFWD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
306 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS THE REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WITH THE COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS FUTURE DATA AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS
MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

NORTH TEXAS RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AND FORECASTS BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH

$$

85/42
The snow experts at the Austin/SA office are saying "SNOW IS ALMOST CERTAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA BETWEEN
LUBBOCK...JUNCTION AND EAST TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Nitty:"I hereby ban myself for at least 24 hours"

Good and close the door behind you.
Ok, one more before I go: If you are going to quote me, post the entire quote. To do otherwise is called "cherry-picking". Retake science 101 and put forth a valid thought JUST ONCE, instead of cutting and pasting someone elses spam, over and over and over. We get it, you have computer skills. OK, now I'm out, closing the door, and leaving you good people to deal with this "objective scientist". Yes admin, I know, I'm banned. Good nite all...by the way, I triple dog dare anyone to repost the spam-be-gone pic only replace JFlorida with Mr. Magoo here...OK, yes, I'm rambling, and yes, now I'm double banned...
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
A 4 minute video? Are you kidding me? Regardless of content, that's called spam. Read the rules. I'll be back when you're done or banned (Yes, I just violated the rules by engaging your violation...I hereby ban myself for at least 24 hours). To the rest of you, great (short, but I know why) discussion on temp averaging. It's all in the math Baby!! (with all respect to Dick Vitale)...I'll be back when a reasonable discussion (math related would be nice) is possible. To HelenBack (local pub)...nite all (maybe 2...tree)

Seems that I read something about monomania in the rules at some point...

One would think that repeating the same posts over and over again would qualify.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
A 4 minute video? Are you kidding me? Regardless of content, that's called spam. Read the rules. I'll be back when you're done or banned (Yes, I just violated the rules by engaging your violation...I hereby ban myself for at least 24 hours). To the rest of you, great (short, but I know why) discussion on temp averaging. It's all in the math Baby!! (with all respect to Dick Vitale)...I'll be back when a reasonable discussion (math related would be nice) is possible. To HelenBack (local pub)...nite all (maybe 2...tree)
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Quoting JeffMasters:


The Tampa dot averages in some nearby ocean regions. If you look at the dot map for land areas only, it shows Tampa was about 3C (5.4F) cooler than average.

Jeff Masters




So the dot map must average in some areas from bradenton and st pete to make it go lower than the 6.7 degrees quoted earlier.
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh yeah GOM temps are way below normal...I haven't seen anyone saying otherwise. The cold pattern in the south has been the main cause of the cold water. The concern is the warm anomalies in the eastern Atlantic, MDR, and the Caribbean, where the tropical breeding grounds are. The gulf and western Atlantic waters will catch up a bit during the spring.



The are multiple warm and cool eddies in the Gulf Stream, but currently there is an eastward intrusion of cold water at 40C that is severing the main stream and turning it back to the southwest. Here are the current global SSTs and anomalies:



Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting SWFLgazer:
I would be skeptical if someone told me that the waters of the Gulf were above normal during January. Here in Naples, the Gulf temps got down to 49 F. Maybe not a record but certainly below normal, as they have been the whole year. I would doubt that Tampa is much different as far as anomalies are concerned.
It is interesting to see how well the loop current shows up when the Gulf of Mexico is so cold.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SWFLgazer:
I would be skeptical if someone told me that the waters of the Gulf were above normal during January. Here in Naples, the Gulf temps got down to 49 F. Maybe not a record but certainly below normal, as they have been the whole year. I would doubt that Tampa is much different as far as anomalies are concerned.


Oh yeah GOM temps are way below normal...I haven't seen anyone saying otherwise. The cold pattern in the south has been the main cause of the cold water. The concern is the warm anomalies in the eastern Atlantic, MDR, and the Caribbean, where the tropical breeding grounds are. The gulf and western Atlantic waters will catch up a bit during the spring.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
I would be skeptical if someone told me that the waters of the Gulf were above normal during January. Here in Naples, the Gulf temps got down to 49 F. Maybe not a record but certainly below normal, as they have been the whole year. I would doubt that Tampa is much different as far as anomalies are concerned.
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My blog is updated on the potential winter storm for the south; feel free to leave comments and ask questions.

Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30671
179. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FKPS20 NFFN 190500
TROPICAL CYCLONE 3-DAY OUTLOOK FOR AREA : EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E
AND 120W ISSUED BY RSMC NADI AT 0400UTC UTC FRIDAY 19TH FEBRUARY 2010

EXISTING TROPICAL CYCLONE: NONE.
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO 1200 UTC FRIDAY 22ND FEBRUARY 2010:

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

POTENTIAL FOR NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE AREA:

SATURDAY 20/02 - LOW
SUNDAY 21/02 - LOW
MONDAY 22/02 - LOW

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 0400 UTC SATURDAY 20TH FEB 2010.

---
Nadi don't see 94P to develop anymore
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WWUS84 KFWD 192106
SPSFWD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
306 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS THE REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WITH THE COLD
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS FUTURE DATA AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS
MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

NORTH TEXAS RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AND FORECASTS BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH

$$

85/42
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
CANES!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
176. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number NINETEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GELANE (12-20092010)
22:00 PM Réunion February 19 2010
=================================

Pre-Cyclone Alert for Réunion Island - Yellow Alert

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Gelane (945 hPa) located at 18.0S 62.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.8S 61.6E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 21.0S 60.9E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 23.1S 58.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 24.6S 55.2E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
According to the last satellite animated imagery, GELANE is weakening. It could have reached it maximum of intensity just after 1200z. Satellite imagery shows that the poleward outflow is weakening and arcs of cirrus depict increasing vertical wind shear in the west and in the northeast of the system.
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GFS 18Z RUN today 2/19/10
SURFACE MAP 96HRS 12NOON CST TU 2-23-10, Dallas-Ft Worth, TX is going to get SNOW AGAIN:
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX
Feb 19, 2010 @3:10PM CST


THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW BOTH
SHOWING ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SNOW. OF COURSE...THIS SYSTEM IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO MANY THINGS COULD CHANGE...BUT THERE WILL BE
A POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IF THE PROGS ARE CORRECT. AS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LESS MOISTURE THAN THE
LAST SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO NORTH TEXAS AND WOULD BE FASTER
MOVING. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
COLDER WHICH COULD RESULT IN FASTER ACCUMULATION ON ROADS. WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUTLINING THIS POSSIBLE
SNOW EVENT.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
NORTH TEXAS DRY FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting TampaSpin:


Exactly Fuzzy math.....how is it done. Are we certain every station and dot is done the same. I just looked at Seattle Washington and the dot there looks off for the month to me!


FYI, now what measurements/sites are they actually using to come up with these figures is the question. You may want to peek at the linked video I put up earlier on the subject in post 43.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/index.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting toontown:


If I understand that correctly locally we are suffering from below average cold days and above average "cool" nights. Is that about right ?

So exactly how do the experts calculate the monthly average temperature for the month. Do they convert the hourly temperature readings to degrees Rankin (or Kelvin) and then sum those numbers, divide the total by the number of hours in the month and then convert back to F or C ??

Or do they take the average daily temperature and sum that and divide that by the number of days ??

Or is there an agreed and approved method for doing this calculation ??




Exactly Fuzzy math.....how is it done. Are we certain every station and dot is done the same. I just looked at Seattle Washington and the dot there looks off for the month to me!
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Quoting FFtrombi:
Post 129.

It doesn't matter that you are not hitting your average daily highs if you are even further from your average daily lows...

For a simple example:

Say your average daily high is 32F
Average daily low = 0F

If for some reason the temperature stays constant day and night for the whole month (remember I am simplifying here) and is 20F.

Your likely average temperature would be about 16F but your actual average temperature would be 20F, +4F on the month. However, since most people move about in the warmest part of the day, they would say what a damn cold month based on empirical evidence....


If I understand that correctly locally we are suffering from below average cold days and above average "cool" nights. Is that about right ?

So exactly how do the experts calculate the monthly average temperature for the month. Do they convert the hourly temperature readings to degrees Rankin (or Kelvin) and then sum those numbers, divide the total by the number of hours in the month and then convert back to F or C ??

Or do they take the average daily temperature and sum that and divide that by the number of days ??

Or is there an agreed and approved method for doing this calculation ??


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Quoting Levi32:


I don't know exactly how they do it but if they are doing it correctly, it would be the average of all the observations taken during the 24-hour day, which are usually officially once every hour. If they deviate from that process at any location then there are probably inconsistencies in the data being displayed.
ya but what happens if ya can't find the data on the clutter desk among mountains of other papers do they just take a reasonable guess

lol
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Quoting Levi32:


I don't know exactly how they do it but if they are doing it correctly, it would be the average of all the observations taken during the 24-hour day, which are usually officially once every hour. If they deviate from that process at any location then there are probably inconsistencies in the data being displayed.


Exactly!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
163. atmoaggie 8:45 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Daily average over the entire course of the day. Averaging just the high and the low is a very inaccurate way of doing it.

If you had a hot sunny day averaging 80 degrees and you had a thunderstorm downdraft that cooled the temperature to 60 for 2 hours, but all the other hours of the day were at 80 degrees, then the "average" would be 70 degrees, if you took the high of 80 and the low of 60. In reality, the mean temp was 78-79.

Yet it is done that way sometimes...and the high or the low is used for so much analysis, when, yes, a day of near constant temps is so very different than the usual high and low separated by 20 degrees .

Good to see you back.



You understand where i am leading too......fuzzy math.....one can come to 2 completely different conclussions! As a person with a major in Stats and Math...the different ways this can be computed would make all the difference. Is each dot computed the same? I don't know the answer to that. How is a completed grid of one dot computed again it makes all the difference.


I don't know exactly how they do it but if they are doing it correctly, it would be the average of all the observations taken during the 24-hour day, which are usually officially once every hour. If they deviate from that process at any location then there are probably inconsistencies in the data being displayed.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
163. atmoaggie 8:45 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Daily average over the entire course of the day. Averaging just the high and the low is a very inaccurate way of doing it.

If you had a hot sunny day averaging 80 degrees and you had a thunderstorm downdraft that cooled the temperature to 60 for 2 hours, but all the other hours of the day were at 80 degrees, then the "average" would be 70 degrees, if you took the high of 80 and the low of 60. In reality, the mean temp was 78-79.

Yet it is done that way sometimes...and the high or the low is used for so much analysis, when, yes, a day of near constant temps is so very different than the usual high and low separated by 20 degrees .

Good to see you back.



You understand where i am leading too......fuzzy math.....one can come to 2 completely different conclussions! As a person with a major in Stats and Math...the different ways this can be computed would make all the difference. Is each dot computed the same? I don't know the answer to that. How is a completed grid of one dot computed again it makes all the difference.
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

915 AM HST FRI FEB 19 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday morning.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As of 18z, Invest 90C has been discontinued. Invest 94P in the central southern Pacific is now the central circulation of the disturbance. Most of the activity will now be confined to the southern hemisphere. One of the big reasons why 90C died was because it moved pretty much right over the equator, and because the circulation was so weak to begin with, this pretty much halted most of the spinning and completely fizzled the LLC.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
Quoting Skepticall:


I do like how in the picture there is absolutely no green grass below it.


Except for the two weeks of spring, the grass in West Texas is only green where you water it.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yet it is done that way sometimes...and the high or the low is used for some much analysis, when, yes, a day of near constant temps is so very different than the usual high an low seperated by 20 degrees+.

Good to see you back.


Yeah it is sad. And thanks :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
Quoting Levi32:


Daily average over the entire course of the day. Averaging just the high and the low is a very inaccurate way of doing it.

If you had a hot sunny day averaging 80 degrees and you had a thunderstorm downdraft that cooled the temperature to 60 for 2 hours, but all the other hours of the day were at 80 degrees, then the "average" would be 70 degrees, if you took the high of 80 and the low of 60. In reality, the mean temp was 78-79.

Yet it is done that way sometimes...and the high or the low is used for so much analysis, when, yes, a day of near constant temps is so very different than the usual high and low separated by 20 degrees .

Good to see you back.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.