Warmest January on record for the lower atmosphere

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on February 17, 2010

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Earth's lower atmosphere recorded its warmest January on record last month, according to data from both the University of Alabama, Hunstville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (Figure 1). The satellite measurements used to take the global temperature of the lower atmosphere began in December 1978, using the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) on polar-orbiting satellites. The January 2010 temperature anomaly was an impressive 0.72°C above the 1979 - 1998 average, easily beating the previous record of 0.59°C set in January 2007. Last month's anomaly was the 3rd warmest anomaly for any month, falling just 0.04°C cooler than the record warmest anomalies of 0.76°C from February and April 1998. The January 2010 satellite-measured temperatures continued a trend of very warm conditions we've seen in the lower atmosphere since the current El Niño event began in June 2009. Record high temperatures occurred in November 2009, and were the second highest on record in both July and September 2009, according to UAH. The record-breaking temperatures in the lower atmosphere are due to the heating of the atmosphere by the strong El Niño event that has been heating the waters of the Central and Eastern Pacific since June 2009, combined with the global warming trend of the past few decades. Since we are currently at the lowest level of solar output in decades, the Earth is currently about 0.1°C cooler than if we were near the maximum of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Had we been near solar maximum, we would have set an all-time warmest lower atmosphere temperature anomaly record last month.(Note, though, that there is about a 2-year time lag between solar maximum and when Earth's global temperature responds). It will be interesting to see if the current El Niño event, which is quite a bit weaker than the record-strongest El Niño of 1998, is capable of making 2010 beat 1998 for honors as the warmest year on record in the lower atmosphere.


Figure 1. Temperature of the lowest 8km of the atmosphere measured by satellite via the MSU instrument flown on polar-orbiting satellites between 1979 - 2010. Image credit: Dr. Roy Spencer, University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Real-time display of atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
The University of Alabama, Huntsville has a handy interactive plotting page that lets one plot up the historical and near-real-time satellite measurements of Earth's global average temperature at various levels of the atmosphere. These temperatures are measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. Note that this is a different instrument than the AQUA satellite's MSU instrument used by UAH to formulate their official monthly global temperature anomaly data set. The two satellites give similar results, although NOAA-15 requires an additional correction to account for drift of the satellite.


Figure 2. Temperature of the global atmosphere at 14,000 feet (4.4 km) as measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. This instrument has been flying since August 1998. The 20-year average (yellow line) and 20-year record highs (pink line) are for the period 1979 - 1998, using versions of the MSU instrument that flew on older satellites. The most recent data (green line), as of February 15, 2010, are marked by a white square, and have now fallen below the record for the date set in 1998. Note that during July 2009, November 2009, and January 2010, record high temperatures were measured at 14,000 feet altitude. A full description of the data is available from the University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Error sources in global atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
Satellite-measured temperatures of Earth's atmosphere, in my judgment, are inferior to using the surface based system of ground stations and ocean buoys for measuring global temperature changes. I have two reasons for saying this:

1) The satellite temperatures show large global increases when there is an El Niño event. While the surface also experiences an upward spike in temperatures during an El Niño, it is much less pronounced than the atmospheric heating that occurs. Since we live at the surface, those temperatures are more relevant.

2) According to a description of the MSU data available on the Remote Sensing Systems web site where the data is archived,


"The instruments in the MSU series were intended for day to day operational use in weather forecasting and thus are not calibrated to the precision needed for climate studies. A climate quality dataset can be extracted from their measurements only by careful inter-calibration of the eleven distinct MSU instruments."


In other words, it's very tricky to make an accurate measurement of Earth's temperature going back to 1979, when satellite measurements began. You have to merge data from eleven separate satellites, whose instruments were never designed to make the kind of precise long-term climate measurements that are being asked of them. While surface stations also have error sources, I believe that the uncertainty in the satellite-based global temperature measurements are higher.

Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, made a series of efforts to perform the careful inter-calibration needed beginning in the 1990s, and for over a decade successfully defended his conclusion that the MSU instruments were showing a much lower level of tropospheric warming than what climate models predicted. Christy was probably the most quoted scientist by the "greenhouse skeptics" during that period, and testified numerous times before Congress about his findings. This discrepancy was a prime argument Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) used in his famed 2003 speech when he referred to the threat of catastrophic global warming as the "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people." Greenhouse contrarian Dr. S. Fred Singer, who has probably more Congressional testimony about global warming under his belt than any other scientist, headlined his SEPP website for many years with the quote, "Computer models forecast rapidly rising global temperatures, but data from weather satellites and balloon instruments show no warming whatsoever. Nevertheless, these same unreliable computer models underpin the Global Climate Treaty." Michael Crichton also used the tropospheric warming discrepancy to give climate models a bad rap in his State of Fear novel. However, a series of papers published in 2004 and 2005 showed that the satellite inter-calibration methods used by Christy were incorrect. Christy conceded that his analysis had been in error, and participated in writing a statement put out by NOAA's Climate Change Science Program that detailed the error.

Climate change contrarians continue to prefer using the UAH satellite data to look at global temperature trends, since that data set shows less warming than the regular surface station data sets, and rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The UAH data shows that in the 31-year period from 1979 - 2009, Earth's lower atmospheric temperature warmed by 0.13°C per decade. A separate analysis of the satellite data by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) puts this number at 0.15°C per decade. For comparison, NASA's GISS and the UK HadCRUT surface data sets (which don't use satellite data) show warming of 0.16°C and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. You can generate these numbers yourself, using the excellent woodfortrees.org plotting tools. The amount of global warming predicted in the 2007 IPCC report for the period 2010 - 2030 was 0.20°C per decade, so we are running about 25% below this predicted level of warming, when averaging over the past 31 years.

For further reading: I have a 2006 blog post on this, and realclimate.org has a technical discussion.

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
The Portlight.org disaster-relief effort continues in Haiti, with another container of specifically-requested medical supplies being shipped today. At the request of Portlight's on-site coordinator, Richard Lumarque, Portlight is committed to sending another container with 500 tents plus food and water. The cost of each shipment is $4300, so your donations are greatly appreciated! Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief.


Figure 3. Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, poses with double-amputee Darline Exidor, who received a wheelchair from Portlight. Portlight's team of ten relief workers has been laboring full-time the past two weeks to deliver donated supplies and assess the needs of the earthquake survivors.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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799. Primus
2:12 PM GMT on February 21, 2010
With the El nino this winter I do remember reading about a colder than norm Feb and then above normal temps in March.
Time will tell since March is 8 days away.
I suspect after this week the pattern will change but it will take a few weeks for real warming because of the deep snowpack.
Member Since: September 11, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
798. wunderkidcayman
2:43 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have taken my magic meds and i am pretty much fine now except for being a little tired.


THEN #3 IS THE BEST THIG TO DO NOW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
797. nrtiwlnvragn
2:38 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
New Blog
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276
796. StormChaser81
2:33 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Gulf water temps

Caribbean

Southeast
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
795. AussieStorm
2:08 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


#1 TAKE TWO PAIN KILLERS
#2 TURN ON THE A/C OR FAN IN YOUR ROOM
#3 GO TO BED AND SLEEP AND TELL US HOW YOU FEEL AFTER

I have taken my magic meds and i am pretty much fine now except for being a little tired.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
794. FLWeatherFreak91
2:05 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting BtnTx:
I use Windows 7 Professional & XP Professional on laptops w/4G RAM and I like them both better than Vista. Both are fast and effective.
Yes, I agree that Windows 7 is fast and better than Vista. But why not try something even better known as mac OS X? ;) Have a real computing experience.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3633
791. wunderkidcayman
1:41 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just home from work, got a massive headache, just dropped in to see whats been happening.


#1 TAKE TWO PAIN KILLERS
#2 TURN ON THE A/C OR FAN IN YOUR ROOM
#3 GO TO BED AND SLEEP AND TELL US HOW YOU FEEL AFTER
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
785. AussieStorm
1:27 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:


it wont make cat 5 status. 120kts is Cat 5 Status for that area of the SW Indian Ocean.






Correction, If it can get to or over 115kts sustained winds then it will reach Cat 5 Status for that part of the SW Indian Ocean. Sorry my bad.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
784. AussieStorm
1:25 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Take two aspirin and call me in the morning!

I don't have your number :-)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
783. wunderkidcayman
1:23 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Looking at this morning's SSTs, I'm noticing several shocking things with the ocean currents:



A deep cold gash with waters as cool as 13C is forcing itself eastward at 40N, cutting off the main Gulf Stream above 20C and causing part of it to loop back southwestward.

The <20C zone of the Humboldt Current has been greatly reduced, extending only as far west as 77W, while at 30S which is normally the strongest part of the current the coldest temperatures are 19C and the coldest part anywhere in the current is 16C.


AND?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
782. AussieStorm
1:22 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Any thought of an El-Nino again come fall and winter? This next one could be stronger if some of these long range models verify.

From Australian BOM.
Summary: SOI falls though rainfall increases

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell sharply over the past fortnight. Although a weakening of the trade winds has contributed to this decrease, it can largely be attributed to tropical cyclone activity near Tahiti (particularly TC Oli) rather than any strong reinvigoration of El Niño.

This is supported by the sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, which have eased very slightly towards their mean conditions during the past two weeks, though remain at levels typical of an El Niño event. However, the decreased trade winds have led to some warming below the surface, which may prolong the decay of the El Niño event in the Pacific. Similarly, climate models suggest that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures should gradually ease towards neutral values, though are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds into the southern autumn. Models surveyed currently show little to no indication of a reinvigoration of El Niño for 2010.

Recent rainfall over Australia appears fairly typical of past El Niño breakdowns. January 2007 (mainly SA/western Vic), February 2003, April 1998, January 1995, March 1983 and February 1973 all produced good rainfalls on the back of an El Niño event.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and forecast to remain so through autumn. The IOD has a reduced impact upon Australia over the summer months.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
781. PensacolaDoug
1:21 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just home from work, got a massive headache, just dropped in to see whats been happening.



Take two aspirin and call me in the morning!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
779. AussieStorm
1:15 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number EIGHTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GELANE (12-20092010)
16:00 PM R%uFFFDunion February 19 2010
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Gelane (930 hPa) located at 17.4S 62.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.5S 61.9E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 19.5S 61.5E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 21.1S 59.9E - 55 knots (Forte Temp%uFFFDte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.3S 57.3E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
GELANE keeps on intensifying. At this stage, it undergoes the northerly steering flow in relationship with the mid level ridge located in its northeast. As the system keeps on tracking southward or south southwestward it is not expected to undergo the previous forecast wind shear and should therefore not weaken significantly. On and after Saturday at 1200z, wind shear should become stronger and stronger in relationship with an approaching upper level trough. Due to its small size, GELANE is expected to weaken rapidly and to undergo the steering flow of the low to mid-level subtropical ridge. European numerical weather prediction models disagree with the American ones. The recurving movement is earlier for the first group. This forecast is based on a compromise of this two options, closer to the American's numerical weather prediction models at short range (more realistic with the present intensity).

--
Getting close to Category 5 storm on the Mauritius/R%uFFFDunion scale

it wont make cat 5 status. 120kts is Cat 5 Status for that area of the SW Indian Ocean.



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
777. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:05 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number EIGHTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GELANE (12-20092010)
16:00 PM Réunion February 19 2010
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Gelane (930 hPa) located at 17.4S 62.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.5S 61.9E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 19.5S 61.5E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 21.1S 59.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.3S 57.3E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
GELANE keeps on intensifying. At this stage, it undergoes the northerly steering flow in relationship with the mid level ridge located in its northeast. As the system keeps on tracking southward or south southwestward it is not expected to undergo the previous forecast wind shear and should therefore not weaken significantly. On and after Saturday at 1200z, wind shear should become stronger and stronger in relationship with an approaching upper level trough. Due to its small size, GELANE is expected to weaken rapidly and to undergo the steering flow of the low to mid-level subtropical ridge. European numerical weather prediction models disagree with the American ones. The recurving movement is earlier for the first group. This forecast is based on a compromise of this two options, closer to the American's numerical weather prediction models at short range (more realistic with the present intensity).

--
Getting close to Category 5 storm on the Mauritius/Réunion scale
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
776. AussieStorm
1:02 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




nada here. Reading the paper, drinking coffee.

Just home from work, got a massive headache, just dropped in to see whats been happening.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
775. AstroHurricane001
1:01 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Looking at this morning's SSTs, I'm noticing several shocking things with the ocean currents:



A deep cold gash with waters as cool as 13C is forcing itself eastward at 40N, cutting off the main Gulf Stream above 20C and causing part of it to loop back southwestward.

The <20C zone of the Humboldt Current has been greatly reduced, extending only as far west as 77W, while at 30S which is normally the strongest part of the current the coldest temperatures are 19C and the coldest part anywhere in the current is 16C.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
774. MisterJohnny
12:35 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Good Morning, Everyone
773. PensacolaDoug
12:28 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning guys what up




nada here. Reading the paper, drinking coffee.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
772. wunderkidcayman
12:02 PM GMT on February 19, 2010
good morning guys what up
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
771. PensacolaDoug
11:44 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
770. drg0dOwnCountry
11:42 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
To part with a

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/49/19214.full
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
768. tornadodude
8:04 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
here we go again haha

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
767. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:38 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVENTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GELANE (12-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion February 19 2010
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Gelane (950 hPa) located at 16.7S 62.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
10 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.8S 61.6E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.7S 61.0E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.2S 59.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 21.8S 58.3E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Satellite imagery shows that GELANE has strengthened within the last 6 hrs. System is currently undergoing two opposite steering flows. A northwesterly flow steered by a mid level equatorial ridge and the easterly flow from the subtropical ridge, the system tracks therefore slowly southward then southwestwards. On Saturday, the system is forecasted undergoing a strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear, steering flow should become progressively lower, and the track should become more westward due to the building subtropical ridge south of the system at the end of the forecast period. According to most of the available numerical weather prediction models, GELANE is expected to track southwards, hen south-southwestward to southwestward

Present foreceast is close to the consensus of the track issued from the available numerical weather prediction models. The models spread remains still large.

Intensity forecast is uncertain due to the system size. The system remains very sensible to little variations of environemental conditions. Present forecast is to keep GELANE at the stage of tropical cyclone for the next 24 hours, as environment remains rather good on the western edge of the upper level ridge. Beyond, environment should degrade progressively as an upper level trough is approaching from the west with increasing northwesterly shear. So GELANE should weaken rapidly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
766. tc1120
6:37 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
I've only made post during hurricane season but I read this blog all year long for the insight you guys all provide.

I live on the south shore of long island and today was a beautiful day up here for the first time in months. My question is how long does everyone expect the negative NAO to continue? This winter has been by far the coldest I've ever seen the ocean temps off Long Island in 15+ years. I surf year round and usually I can take it for what it's worth but this year I've lost all motivation as the water temps have dropped to 34.9 degrees F at points during February. Is the neg NAO fading out? because I've noticed the recent increase in SST's in the Caribbean and Cape Verde, mostly what seems to be above average for this time of the year. For some reason I don't see spring really coming to the northeast until late april into may...been a really cold and strange winter. I live on a barrier island off the south shore of Long Island and on average we receive maybe a foot of snow per year, and this year we've already had two storms of 10+ inches and 18+ inches, and it seems to snow here every other day(twice as much as most areas in long island) which is very uncharacteristic of a barrier island. We've had snow on the ground for 3 weeks straight.

It's funny because I lived in wrightsville beach NC for a few years and the one year I don't go back ( I was beating myself up over not returning) is the coldest in 30 years.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
765. Seastep
5:36 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
I can't stand monthly temps when it comes to this topic. It makes no sense, imo. Annual averages, based on a full trip around the sun, are the only valid measurement for assessment.

Here is that perspective:



Rotating Energy Reference: Maria D. Kazachenko et al 2009 ApJ 704 1146-1158

Rotating Record Reference: X. L. Yan et al 2008 ApJ 682 L65-L68

Temperature Reference: Dr. Roy Spencer, University of Alabama, Hunstville
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
763. BtnTx
4:54 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
out for the night all!
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
762. xcool
4:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
oh
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
761. BtnTx
4:51 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:

What I can give in the way of advice is to take the plunge. Go all command line until you can easily navigate and run file operations before you go Gnome, KDE, etc. (graphical window system) if you really want to learn it.

Or, if you just want to be a proficient user, with the usual graphic interface we (almost) all depend on, go ahead and install Ubuntu. Really does install readily and everything works from the start. (even hot keys, hibernate, wireless, bluetooth, etc.)

(can you believe I have more machines in my office without a mouse attached than with? HIDs not useful for computational work-horses...)
When I can make time I am likely to go Ubuntu 1st as it can be installed on a USB mem stick as per instructions from a co-worker. Thanks for the advice as I understand the value of command line knowledge!
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
760. beell
4:50 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting xcool:
GeoffreyWPB ?


I do hope he was speaking to me, xcool.
It would be an honor.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16895
759. 1900hurricane
4:48 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
I'm waiting for these maps to update and see how much that run really does bring some of us.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
758. centex
4:46 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
To part with a funny (and yes, this is tongue in cheek) I think we have rather completely solved the cause of observed warming. It has been driven by...
...
...the cost of a stamp.

Just wish many of you guys would join science on this topic, makes me question what many of you say.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
757. Bordonaro
4:41 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:


If the GFS 00z verifies you would receive 6-9inches conservatively. I see a complete subfreezing layer between 1000mb-500mb. The GFS paints .75-1 inch of liquid across your area. Can't wait to see the bufkit data on this.

I feel like I have moved back to Buffalo, NY!! Well, not exactly, but this 6-9" of snow will be interesting to see.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
756. atmoaggie
4:40 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting BtnTx:
I understand Linux good to know & I want to learn when I can make the time!

What I can give in the way of advice is to take the plunge. Go all command line until you can easily navigate and run file operations before you go Gnome, KDE, etc. (graphical window system) if you really want to learn it.

Or, if you just want to be a proficient user, with the usual graphic interface we (almost) all depend on, go ahead and install Ubuntu. Really does install readily and everything works from the start. (even hot keys, hibernate, wireless, bluetooth, etc.)

(can you believe I have more machines in my office without a mouse attached than with? HIDs not useful for computational work-horses...)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
755. xcool
4:39 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
GeoffreyWPB ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
754. atmoaggie
4:36 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
To part with a funny (and yes, this is tongue in cheek) I think we have rather completely solved the cause of observed warming. It has been driven by...
...
...the cost of a stamp.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
753. BtnTx
4:35 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ehh, I know your position. Linux aptitude gets me paid, too.
I understand Linux good to know & I want to learn when I can make the time!
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 892
752. Drakoen
4:35 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
Drak, if Dallas-Ft Worth, TX receives 2" of snow, we will set an all time record for yearly snowfall. Our records go back to 18998.


If the GFS 00z verifies you would receive 6-9inches conservatively. I see a complete subfreezing layer between 1000mb-500mb. The GFS paints .75-1 inch of liquid across your area. Can't wait to see the bufkit data on this.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30619
751. GeoffreyWPB
4:33 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
749...I wish I knew!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11451
750. GeoffreyWPB
4:31 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
x
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11451
749. atmoaggie
4:31 AM GMT on February 19, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I read and respect your posts all the time. The scenerio I brought up happened a few weeks ago. Just curious if the odds of that happening can be calculated.

Of course, they can. Just need a statistician...or a bookie...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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Mostly Cloudy