Warmest January on record for the lower atmosphere

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on February 17, 2010

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Earth's lower atmosphere recorded its warmest January on record last month, according to data from both the University of Alabama, Hunstville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (Figure 1). The satellite measurements used to take the global temperature of the lower atmosphere began in December 1978, using the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) on polar-orbiting satellites. The January 2010 temperature anomaly was an impressive 0.72°C above the 1979 - 1998 average, easily beating the previous record of 0.59°C set in January 2007. Last month's anomaly was the 3rd warmest anomaly for any month, falling just 0.04°C cooler than the record warmest anomalies of 0.76°C from February and April 1998. The January 2010 satellite-measured temperatures continued a trend of very warm conditions we've seen in the lower atmosphere since the current El Niño event began in June 2009. Record high temperatures occurred in November 2009, and were the second highest on record in both July and September 2009, according to UAH. The record-breaking temperatures in the lower atmosphere are due to the heating of the atmosphere by the strong El Niño event that has been heating the waters of the Central and Eastern Pacific since June 2009, combined with the global warming trend of the past few decades. Since we are currently at the lowest level of solar output in decades, the Earth is currently about 0.1°C cooler than if we were near the maximum of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Had we been near solar maximum, we would have set an all-time warmest lower atmosphere temperature anomaly record last month.(Note, though, that there is about a 2-year time lag between solar maximum and when Earth's global temperature responds). It will be interesting to see if the current El Niño event, which is quite a bit weaker than the record-strongest El Niño of 1998, is capable of making 2010 beat 1998 for honors as the warmest year on record in the lower atmosphere.


Figure 1. Temperature of the lowest 8km of the atmosphere measured by satellite via the MSU instrument flown on polar-orbiting satellites between 1979 - 2010. Image credit: Dr. Roy Spencer, University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Real-time display of atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
The University of Alabama, Huntsville has a handy interactive plotting page that lets one plot up the historical and near-real-time satellite measurements of Earth's global average temperature at various levels of the atmosphere. These temperatures are measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. Note that this is a different instrument than the AQUA satellite's MSU instrument used by UAH to formulate their official monthly global temperature anomaly data set. The two satellites give similar results, although NOAA-15 requires an additional correction to account for drift of the satellite.


Figure 2. Temperature of the global atmosphere at 14,000 feet (4.4 km) as measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. This instrument has been flying since August 1998. The 20-year average (yellow line) and 20-year record highs (pink line) are for the period 1979 - 1998, using versions of the MSU instrument that flew on older satellites. The most recent data (green line), as of February 15, 2010, are marked by a white square, and have now fallen below the record for the date set in 1998. Note that during July 2009, November 2009, and January 2010, record high temperatures were measured at 14,000 feet altitude. A full description of the data is available from the University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Error sources in global atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
Satellite-measured temperatures of Earth's atmosphere, in my judgment, are inferior to using the surface based system of ground stations and ocean buoys for measuring global temperature changes. I have two reasons for saying this:

1) The satellite temperatures show large global increases when there is an El Niño event. While the surface also experiences an upward spike in temperatures during an El Niño, it is much less pronounced than the atmospheric heating that occurs. Since we live at the surface, those temperatures are more relevant.

2) According to a description of the MSU data available on the Remote Sensing Systems web site where the data is archived,


"The instruments in the MSU series were intended for day to day operational use in weather forecasting and thus are not calibrated to the precision needed for climate studies. A climate quality dataset can be extracted from their measurements only by careful inter-calibration of the eleven distinct MSU instruments."


In other words, it's very tricky to make an accurate measurement of Earth's temperature going back to 1979, when satellite measurements began. You have to merge data from eleven separate satellites, whose instruments were never designed to make the kind of precise long-term climate measurements that are being asked of them. While surface stations also have error sources, I believe that the uncertainty in the satellite-based global temperature measurements are higher.

Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, made a series of efforts to perform the careful inter-calibration needed beginning in the 1990s, and for over a decade successfully defended his conclusion that the MSU instruments were showing a much lower level of tropospheric warming than what climate models predicted. Christy was probably the most quoted scientist by the "greenhouse skeptics" during that period, and testified numerous times before Congress about his findings. This discrepancy was a prime argument Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) used in his famed 2003 speech when he referred to the threat of catastrophic global warming as the "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people." Greenhouse contrarian Dr. S. Fred Singer, who has probably more Congressional testimony about global warming under his belt than any other scientist, headlined his SEPP website for many years with the quote, "Computer models forecast rapidly rising global temperatures, but data from weather satellites and balloon instruments show no warming whatsoever. Nevertheless, these same unreliable computer models underpin the Global Climate Treaty." Michael Crichton also used the tropospheric warming discrepancy to give climate models a bad rap in his State of Fear novel. However, a series of papers published in 2004 and 2005 showed that the satellite inter-calibration methods used by Christy were incorrect. Christy conceded that his analysis had been in error, and participated in writing a statement put out by NOAA's Climate Change Science Program that detailed the error.

Climate change contrarians continue to prefer using the UAH satellite data to look at global temperature trends, since that data set shows less warming than the regular surface station data sets, and rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The UAH data shows that in the 31-year period from 1979 - 2009, Earth's lower atmospheric temperature warmed by 0.13°C per decade. A separate analysis of the satellite data by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) puts this number at 0.15°C per decade. For comparison, NASA's GISS and the UK HadCRUT surface data sets (which don't use satellite data) show warming of 0.16°C and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. You can generate these numbers yourself, using the excellent woodfortrees.org plotting tools. The amount of global warming predicted in the 2007 IPCC report for the period 2010 - 2030 was 0.20°C per decade, so we are running about 25% below this predicted level of warming, when averaging over the past 31 years.

For further reading: I have a 2006 blog post on this, and realclimate.org has a technical discussion.

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
The Portlight.org disaster-relief effort continues in Haiti, with another container of specifically-requested medical supplies being shipped today. At the request of Portlight's on-site coordinator, Richard Lumarque, Portlight is committed to sending another container with 500 tents plus food and water. The cost of each shipment is $4300, so your donations are greatly appreciated! Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief.


Figure 3. Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, poses with double-amputee Darline Exidor, who received a wheelchair from Portlight. Portlight's team of ten relief workers has been laboring full-time the past two weeks to deliver donated supplies and assess the needs of the earthquake survivors.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chucktown:


Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. He works for tabloid weather and thats all it is. He makes sure everyone knows when he's right, but when a "hype" storm misses its quickly swept under the rug. I've been doing weather for 20 years and Accuweather hasn't changed.


Alright think what you like. I gotta defend the guy he's amazing, and the only reason people hate him so much is because he's not with the government. I say to everyone get the heck over it and accept the fact that the guy is a genius. He also nailed the winter forecast did he not? This winter has been cold and snowy in the south and eastern US, has it not? NOAA didn't forecast that did they?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting Chucktown:


JB's a jackass. He makes these bold predictions to drive people to "accuguess". I understand that he is a meteorologist, but so am I and its absurd and downright dumb on his part to predict landfalling hurricanes 6 months in advance. Its also very unprofessional to "pat yourself on the back" when you get a forecast correct. I don't do it, and the last time I checked, isn't that what we as meteorologists get paid for. C'mon Joe !!

JB
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Quoting Levi32:


So you call trying to improve long-range forecasting and make more accurate predictions absurd? That's ridiculous dude. Check his records, he's right on a lot of stuff. And he's not a hypist because remember he led the pack down on forecasting a below-average hurricane season last year.

And why does he pat himself on the back? To help him keep subscribers at Accuweather because he is a major backbone of a huge private weather organization, so of course he's going to remind his clients why they are paying to see him.


Levi!! when did you get back!? How the hell are ya? I agree Bastardi basically nailed that 09-10 winter forecast...
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Quoting Levi32:


So you call trying to improve long-range forecasting and make more accurate predictions absurd? That's ridiculous dude. Check his records, he's right on a lot of stuff. And he's not a hypist because remember he led the pack down on forecasting a below-average hurricane season last year.

And why does he pat himself on the back? To help him keep subscribers at Accuweather because he is a major backbone of a huge private weather organization, so of course he's going to remind his clients why they are paying to see him.


Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. He works for tabloid weather and thats all it is. He makes sure everyone knows when he's right, but when a "hype" storm misses its quickly swept under the rug. I've been doing weather for 20 years and Accuweather hasn't changed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:


JB's a jackass. He makes these bold predictions to drive people to "accuguess". I understand that he is a meteorologist, but so am I and its absurd and downright dumb on his part to predict landfalling hurricanes 6 months in advance. Its also very unprofessional to "pat yourself on the back" when you get a forecast correct. I don't do it, and the last time I checked, isn't that what we as meteorologists get paid for. C'mon Joe !!


So you call trying to improve long-range forecasting and make more accurate predictions absurd? That's ridiculous dude. Check his records, he's right on a lot of stuff. And he's not a hypist because remember he led the pack down on forecasting a below-average hurricane season last year.

And why does he pat himself on the back? To help him keep subscribers at Accuweather because he is a major backbone of a huge private weather organization, so of course he's going to remind his clients why they are paying to see him.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting Levi32:


Well that's what Joe does. He did the same thing last year and nailed the track congregation as well as the low season number total.


And at this time last year people were ridiculing him nonstop. Glad to see he's getting some respect now.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting Bordonaro:
Post on #634, JB may be onto something here. However I would not be nearly as bold as to forecast landfalling hurricanes.

We will have a "very interesting" 2010 Atl Hurricane Season this year.


JB's a jackass. He makes these bold predictions to drive people to "accuguess". I understand that he is a meteorologist, but so am I and its absurd and downright dumb on his part to predict landfalling hurricanes 6 months in advance. Its also very unprofessional to "pat yourself on the back" when you get a forecast correct. I don't do it, and the last time I checked, isn't that what we as meteorologists get paid for. C'mon Joe !!
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Accuweather's Joe Bastardi Forecast (Summer-Winter) 2009-2010

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets get back to GW

Do we really have to? (rolling eyes)
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Post on #634, JB may be onto something here. However I would not be nearly as bold as to forecast landfalling hurricanes.

We will have a "very interesting" 2010 Atl Hurricane Season this year.


Well that's what Joe does. He did the same thing last year and nailed the track congregation as well as the low season number total.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Tornado tears through crops

A tornado has ripped through far north Queensland, amazing onlookers.

Residents say the tornado travelled through an area just south of Atherton yesterday afternoon, damaging crops.

Atherton resident Chris told ABC Local Radio, the tornado was strong enough to throw a pile of tractor tyres 100 metres into the air.

"I just couldn't believe my eyes. To the left of me, off the road there, a tornado, a funnel actually dropped," he said.

"The funnel was clear as. It went right up into the sky and you could see it dropping and as it was moving you could actually see it spinning the dust and the corn and it was all coming up to there."

Maize farmer Adrian Gallo says the tornado was about 10 metres wide and went straight through a pile of farming equipment.

"We've basically gone through the property, collecting gear - there's some gear that we've picked up 500 metres away," he said.

"There's a lot that's lost in the grass that we can't find.

"The tyres - I think the furthermost one would have been 50 metres away from where it was."

Weather bureau forecaster Bill O'Connor says the tornado was caused by a passing storm.

"In the past, we've seen damage that's obviously from a tornado. Any thunderstorm has the potential of producing one," he said.

Mr O'Connor says he was surprised by power of the tornado.

"Generally up here we don't get tornados that powerful I suppose but I think they are a little more frequent than what we give them credit for," he said.

"Fortunately they tend to develop in areas that aren't that inhabited."


- ABC
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Post on #634, JB may be onto something here. However I would not be nearly as bold as to forecast landfalling hurricanes.

We will have a "very interesting" 2010 Atl Hurricane Season this year.
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Torrential rain sparks Haiti shelter emergency

Providing shelter for hundreds of thousands of homeless earthquake victims in Haiti jumped to the top of the relief priorities after heavy rain turned makeshift survivors' camps into muddy quagmires.

Several hours of overnight rain, much of it torrential, battered the thousands of crude cloth tents and huts in the quake-shattered capital Port-au-Prince, turning the ground between them to mud and soaking their occupants.

It was the second downpour in a week and the prospect of more rain on the way has added urgency to the government's appeal for tents and temporary living structures in which to house the homeless, estimated at more than 1 million following the catastrophic January 12 earthquake.

"The rain has been falling. When we get two, three days of it, what will this be like?" Jean Pierre Rosier said as he and other residents of a ramshackle survivors' camp in the Delmas 33 neighbourhood waded through ankle-deep muddy water.

Morning sunshine allowed the camp residents to dry some of their sodden clothes and possessions and hurriedly dig drainage ditches.

But Haiti's leaders have put providing adequate shelter for the quake homeless at the top of their requests to foreign governments and relief organisations.

"Every time I meet with foreign leaders and delegations, I tell them that is the most urgent need," President Rene Preval said.

"Now that we've attended to the wounded, taken away the dead and we're distributing food and water, the problem of shelter, the tents, is the most urgent," he said.

-Reuters
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Quoting Bordonaro:


We have also been in a very unusual weather pattern since late Nov 09- present. All types of records have fallen, snowfall, rainfall and temperatures. I believe since this type of winter weather happens so infrequently here in the US, the GFS models really don't know what to make of it.

We are going from a milder period/quiet period, possibly back into the "icebox" for much of the Eastern Conus in an active split Jet, and GFS models are confused.


The GFS hates split-jets lol. It has a problem identifying differences between airmasses when the southern branch isn't thoroughly involved. When a storm forms because of the difference between modified cold air and fresh arctic air, it has a problem, and tries to bring in stuff out of the Gulf of Mexico, because the model can't imagine a nor'easter coming from anywhere else lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting Jeff9641:


THe GFS has been doing a terrible job lately. I wonder why this is, is it human error?


You don't only have to look at the GFS. You can look at GFS ensembles or other models.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
634. xcool
A HURRICANE SEASON PRELIM:


(first issued Monday to private interests)


My forecast will raise eyebrows, as I believe a major landfalling season is on the way, and certainly one that will cause much more disruption to energy interests and higher insurance costs. The current El Nino WILL NOT continue into the hurricane season, and the moistening of the atmosphere over the tropics that has occurred during the Nino will mean worldwide there will be more activity. For the Atlantic Basin, this has the chance to be an extreme season, certainly much greater than last season.

There are two main physical drivers here that have me very concerned.

1) The aforementioned El Nino means that humidity levels will be higher over the deep tropics this year. My research has shown that when El Ninos are coming on, very often there is plenty of dry air in the deep tropics over the Atlantic beforehand. We saw that in '06 and '09 and it led to lesser numbers. I caught it in '09 much better than '06, but the reason has to do with the state of the atmosphere beforehand, because not all El Ninos produce non-seasons ('04 and '69 for example, big seasons with El Ninos). The collapse of the Nino very often is signaled by the opposite and a preliminary look indicates a much more friendly humidity pattern is evolving! This would not be as big a concern, though of some concern, if the El Nino did not wane, or a strong La Nina developed. I do not see a strong La Nina for this season (that has the effect of keeping storms farther south). And it would not have the weight it has if it was not for what has happened in the Atlantic with the water temps! 2) It is opposite of what I was looking at last year. The warm water is south of 30 north, and there is colder water in the central Atlantic. This focuses upward motion over the tropical breeding grounds. The European is already seeing this, as it's carrying a reversal to higher-than-normal pressures in the tropical Pacific and lower-than-normal pressures in the very areas that we used as a way of downplaying last year.

I need to watch the pressures in the Atlantic in the month of May, and some of the other tools I use, but if they go as I suspect, a spray year with above-normal threats on ALL THE U.S. COAST, perhaps similar to 2008, is on the way. In fact, it is very disturbing to note that in the package are years such as 1995, 2005 and 1964. This is a preliminary look, but a heads up to all of you. Keep in mind that it was me last March who touted the down year and said the Nino was coming on. It was me who circled the area hammered the year before and said there would be very little activity. I don't want to here the HYPE HYPE HYPE crowd scream because last year was dead on, and the year before was even more than the nasty season advertised. It is what it is...

My long standing fear for the East Coast remains as the cooling Pacific and the still warm overall Atlantic is the overall setup that enhances East Coast activity as we saw in the last attack of the hurricanes on the East Coast, mainly in the '50s. I believe, in spite of storms of tropical origin and the damage they caused last year on the East Coast, most notably the Jersey Devil and the ghost of Ida, the East Coast has fared very well in this time of hurricane hardship. I do believe we are in the waning years of this current uptick in the Atlantic, perhaps another 5 to at most 10, before rationality returns to the Atlantic Basin. Given naming techniques and satellites, it will never be as low as it was, but will be what it would have been in the '60s and '70s if we had the same namers as we have now.

Our forecasts have spoken for themselves over the years. I think we all saw the lesser number and shift northeast in the threat area last year, the big season forecast the year before. The errors in '07 and '06 were more letter than spirit of the law. The La Nina got very strong in '07, and what activity there was in '06 was to the northeast of the mega season of '05. Since the La Nina is not expected to be strong this year, the stage is set, for the reasons given above, for a more active season and one that will have more than normal impact on the U.S. coast against the running 20 year means.

Since I don't want to get into the TPC name game out in the middle of nowhere, the forecast as of now calls for 15 total storms west of 55 west. Crucial landfall ideas: seven landfalls, five hurricanes, two or three major landfalls. This is the kind of season that has me worried about Florida as a center point, and from this stage, areas north and west also, but with the center of the congregation of landfalling tracks near Florida.

The big thing to take from this... As of this writing, we are in for a very different season from last year. Collapsing Ninos with warm Atlantic water and lower-than-normal pressures in the southwestern Atlantic Basin during the summer are not to be taken lightly!

The global warming crowd, reduced to blaming the snow on global warming this year after blaming lack of snow on it in previous years, will be able to proudly point to the hurricanes this year, and so the debate will rage on. Something for all of us to look forward to, eh?

Ciao for now. ******

Joe's MeteorologicalAccuWeather,com
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Quoting Levi32:


It's the GFS's inability to correctly handle the transfer of heat and the physical processes associated with it.


We have also been in a very unusual weather pattern since late Nov 09- present. All types of records have fallen, snowfall, rainfall and temperatures. I believe since this type of winter weather happens so infrequently here in the US, the GFS models really don't know what to make of it.

We are going from a milder period/quiet period, possibly back into the "icebox" for much of the Eastern Conus in an active split Jet pattern, and GFS models are confused.
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Quoting charlottefl:
Here's the whole clip:


That was very funny to watch live, he is still getting "treatment" for his mental scaring
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Quoting Jeff9641:


THe GFS has been doing a terrible job lately. I wonder why this is, is it human error?


It's the GFS's inability to correctly handle the transfer of heat and the physical processes associated with it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Hmmm, I hate asking about my own location but.. how far south did it go in Georgia? XD

I would check myself but on the site I'm using (TwisterData) I click on the 12Z and it says it isn't available and redirects me to the latest one, the 18Z.


Around Macon
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS 12z shows the potential for snow in northern Texas down to the Dallas and then moves the swath over to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. It's tracking the low further north than the previous snowstorm in the south. Plenty of time to watch this one


Hmmm, I hate asking about my own location but.. how far south did it go in Georgia? XD

I would check myself but on the site I'm using (TwisterData) I click on the 12Z and it says it isn't available and redirects me to the latest one, the 18Z.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
623. Hey, you did it -- thanks, Levi! And Taz, our-Terrible-Terrier liked it, too! I'll have to remember to mention it to AussieStorm.

oh, goody, more of it...thanks CharlotteFl, too.
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The GFS 12z shows the potential for snow in northern Texas down to the Dallas and then moves the swath over to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. It's tracking the low further north than the previous snowstorm in the south. Plenty of time to watch this one
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
Here's the whole clip:

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Finally....lol...there you go.


Weather Man, Attacked By a 'Pelican' Channel 9 Steve Jacobs,Australia Live TV @ Yahoo! Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
619. Yeah.. What happened during its latest 0Z and 12Z runs? Last time before this I remember the GFS dropped the southern snow storm completely. Think that was a 06Z run.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Link

Looks like the snow ends in extreme eastern Alabama though.
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The GFS has yet to show the robust solutions on the 18z runs on its more reliable 00z and 12z runs.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
The E3 CFS looks more in line with the other climate models.
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.


Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
18Z GFS run coming out. So far, at the latest frame (132 hours out) there is snow all over TX.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
613. AwakeInMaryland 1:18 PM AKST on February 18, 2010
Quoting Levi32:

Let me see if this works

-------------------------------

LOL! Well, it didn't work for ME, but that doesn't mean anything... I see I can get quite an education on plug-ins... geez, this could be as bad as trying to get me to read a read a MANUAL!

Which reminds me, this weekend's task is to learn a new cell-phone -- at least this one has a keyboard. I hate the switching-over time...

P.S. Thanks for trying to help me. I'm clueless on this one.


Lol I utterly failed....but you're welcome. I'll figure it out some way eventually.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting Levi32:

Let me see if this works

-------------------------------

LOL! Well, it didn't work for ME, but that doesn't mean anything... I see I can get quite an education on plug-ins... geez, this could be as bad as trying to get me to read a read a MANUAL!

Which reminds me, this weekend's task is to learn a new cell-phone -- at least this one has a keyboard. I hate the switching-over time...

P.S. Thanks for trying to help me. I'm clueless on this one.
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I'm waiting a few more months to see what El Nino will do, it is possible to be weak throughout the upcoming summer.


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.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting NEwxguy:


yeh,and I'm going to hit the lottery any day too.


Wow, you too? LOL
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Quoting Floodman:


It's the only way people will listen to me...you didn't see the subliminal message in that post: "Take $500 and send it to Floodman"

It hasn't started working yet, but when it does...


yeh,and I'm going to hit the lottery any day too.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
Speaking of newbie-ness, would anyone know how to post this? I can't find the embed. It's a bit funny, "Pelican Attacks Weather Man," a Reuters video currently on the yahoo home page.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?cl=18193093
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Quoting MrJoeBlow:
Wowie this is all too technically for me.


Just ask for a translation to "newbie-speak!" I've been doing it for months; imagine it will go on for years until I'm banned for endlessly irritating WUnderland.

Most take pity on us...for we know not what we read... :)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Email from Dr. Masters---there have been named tropical systems in the central Pacific in February :)

FROM: JeffMasters


TO: StSimonsIslandGAGuy
DATE: 2010-02-18 17:07:22 (5:07 PM GMT)
SUBJECT: Re: no subject
See:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/#1992

January 28 - February 4, Hurricane Ekeka
March 28 - 30, Tropical Storm Hali

Jeff

*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by StSimonsIslandGAGuy at: 9:29 PM GMT on February 17, 2010

Regarding the invest in the Central Pacific--has there ever been a named tropical system in the north Central Pacific in February? I know typhoons happen in the Western Pacific year round.


Yes, it can happen during El Nino years when the SSTs are warm in the central Pacific. Ekeka set records for being the farthest south of any storm to develop in the entire Pacific, as well as the farthest south to attain major hurricane status.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Hopefully this is not a major problem:


000
NOUS71 KNES 181218
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY, ASCAT DATA, ISSUED: FEBRUARY 18, 2010
TOPIC: *ASCAT *

DATE/TIME ISSUED*: FEBRUARY 18 2010, 1215 UTC*

PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED: *ASCAT** *

DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: *FEBRUARY 18, 2010** 1215 UTC*

DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END: *UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE*

LENGTH OF EVENT: *TBD

*IMPACTS ON USERS AND SIGNIFICANCE: *ASCAT DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE.*

USER ACTIONS: *NONE.*

DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: *DUE TO A METOP INSTRUMENT ANOMALY, ASCAT
DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FROM SENSING TIME 09:50 ON DOY 049 UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.
*

**RECOVERY INFORMATION SHALL BE DISTRIBUTED AS SOON AS IT BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
hopefully
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
With a low A.C.E., however, IF there are MORE storms, they will likely be of LESS intensity. Last year fell well short of predictions because low A.C.E. was not given it's due. My $.02.


This would be the year that the ACE makes a comeback though. The El Nino this winter has warmed and humidified the atmosphere in the tropics, making it ready for more activity. Once the El Nino collapses, as it already is beginning to do, that will set the stage for a more favorable upper-level pattern, which would allow more storms both in frequency and intensity. We'll see how it turns out, but I believe it is quite safe to say this season will be far more active than last year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Hopefully this is not a major problem:


000
NOUS71 KNES 181218
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY, ASCAT DATA, ISSUED: FEBRUARY 18, 2010
TOPIC: *ASCAT *

DATE/TIME ISSUED*: FEBRUARY 18 2010, 1215 UTC*

PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED: *ASCAT** *

DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: *FEBRUARY 18, 2010** 1215 UTC*

DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END: *UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE*

LENGTH OF EVENT: *TBD

*IMPACTS ON USERS AND SIGNIFICANCE: *ASCAT DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE.*

USER ACTIONS: *NONE.*

DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: *DUE TO A METOP INSTRUMENT ANOMALY, ASCAT
DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FROM SENSING TIME 09:50 ON DOY 049 UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.
*

**RECOVERY INFORMATION SHALL BE DISTRIBUTED AS SOON AS IT BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
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Molten Planet
A breakthrough technology leads to a new understanding of the Earth's mobile, and malleable, inner core.
http://illumination.missouri.edu/f09/molten_planet

New findings on how super volcanos form, such as Yellowstone.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting StormChaser81:


Hey I live in Florida to and right on the west coast, plus my elevation is 3ft above sea level.

There just calling what they see.

Id take it as a warning, but nothing is written in stone, things can change and will. But i does appear to be a more active hurricane season coming for the summer of 2010.
With a low A.C.E., however, IF there are MORE storms, they will likely be of LESS intensity. Last year fell well short of predictions because low A.C.E. was not given it's due. My $.02.
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 872
Quoting NEwxguy:
Complain,complain,Flood,thats all you do is complain.


It's the only way people will listen to me...you didn't see the subliminal message in that post: "Take $500 and send it to Floodman"

It hasn't started working yet, but when it does...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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