Warmest January on record for the lower atmosphere

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on February 17, 2010

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Earth's lower atmosphere recorded its warmest January on record last month, according to data from both the University of Alabama, Hunstville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (Figure 1). The satellite measurements used to take the global temperature of the lower atmosphere began in December 1978, using the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) on polar-orbiting satellites. The January 2010 temperature anomaly was an impressive 0.72°C above the 1979 - 1998 average, easily beating the previous record of 0.59°C set in January 2007. Last month's anomaly was the 3rd warmest anomaly for any month, falling just 0.04°C cooler than the record warmest anomalies of 0.76°C from February and April 1998. The January 2010 satellite-measured temperatures continued a trend of very warm conditions we've seen in the lower atmosphere since the current El Niño event began in June 2009. Record high temperatures occurred in November 2009, and were the second highest on record in both July and September 2009, according to UAH. The record-breaking temperatures in the lower atmosphere are due to the heating of the atmosphere by the strong El Niño event that has been heating the waters of the Central and Eastern Pacific since June 2009, combined with the global warming trend of the past few decades. Since we are currently at the lowest level of solar output in decades, the Earth is currently about 0.1°C cooler than if we were near the maximum of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Had we been near solar maximum, we would have set an all-time warmest lower atmosphere temperature anomaly record last month.(Note, though, that there is about a 2-year time lag between solar maximum and when Earth's global temperature responds). It will be interesting to see if the current El Niño event, which is quite a bit weaker than the record-strongest El Niño of 1998, is capable of making 2010 beat 1998 for honors as the warmest year on record in the lower atmosphere.


Figure 1. Temperature of the lowest 8km of the atmosphere measured by satellite via the MSU instrument flown on polar-orbiting satellites between 1979 - 2010. Image credit: Dr. Roy Spencer, University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Real-time display of atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
The University of Alabama, Huntsville has a handy interactive plotting page that lets one plot up the historical and near-real-time satellite measurements of Earth's global average temperature at various levels of the atmosphere. These temperatures are measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. Note that this is a different instrument than the AQUA satellite's MSU instrument used by UAH to formulate their official monthly global temperature anomaly data set. The two satellites give similar results, although NOAA-15 requires an additional correction to account for drift of the satellite.


Figure 2. Temperature of the global atmosphere at 14,000 feet (4.4 km) as measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. This instrument has been flying since August 1998. The 20-year average (yellow line) and 20-year record highs (pink line) are for the period 1979 - 1998, using versions of the MSU instrument that flew on older satellites. The most recent data (green line), as of February 15, 2010, are marked by a white square, and have now fallen below the record for the date set in 1998. Note that during July 2009, November 2009, and January 2010, record high temperatures were measured at 14,000 feet altitude. A full description of the data is available from the University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Error sources in global atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
Satellite-measured temperatures of Earth's atmosphere, in my judgment, are inferior to using the surface based system of ground stations and ocean buoys for measuring global temperature changes. I have two reasons for saying this:

1) The satellite temperatures show large global increases when there is an El Niño event. While the surface also experiences an upward spike in temperatures during an El Niño, it is much less pronounced than the atmospheric heating that occurs. Since we live at the surface, those temperatures are more relevant.

2) According to a description of the MSU data available on the Remote Sensing Systems web site where the data is archived,


"The instruments in the MSU series were intended for day to day operational use in weather forecasting and thus are not calibrated to the precision needed for climate studies. A climate quality dataset can be extracted from their measurements only by careful inter-calibration of the eleven distinct MSU instruments."


In other words, it's very tricky to make an accurate measurement of Earth's temperature going back to 1979, when satellite measurements began. You have to merge data from eleven separate satellites, whose instruments were never designed to make the kind of precise long-term climate measurements that are being asked of them. While surface stations also have error sources, I believe that the uncertainty in the satellite-based global temperature measurements are higher.

Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, made a series of efforts to perform the careful inter-calibration needed beginning in the 1990s, and for over a decade successfully defended his conclusion that the MSU instruments were showing a much lower level of tropospheric warming than what climate models predicted. Christy was probably the most quoted scientist by the "greenhouse skeptics" during that period, and testified numerous times before Congress about his findings. This discrepancy was a prime argument Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) used in his famed 2003 speech when he referred to the threat of catastrophic global warming as the "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people." Greenhouse contrarian Dr. S. Fred Singer, who has probably more Congressional testimony about global warming under his belt than any other scientist, headlined his SEPP website for many years with the quote, "Computer models forecast rapidly rising global temperatures, but data from weather satellites and balloon instruments show no warming whatsoever. Nevertheless, these same unreliable computer models underpin the Global Climate Treaty." Michael Crichton also used the tropospheric warming discrepancy to give climate models a bad rap in his State of Fear novel. However, a series of papers published in 2004 and 2005 showed that the satellite inter-calibration methods used by Christy were incorrect. Christy conceded that his analysis had been in error, and participated in writing a statement put out by NOAA's Climate Change Science Program that detailed the error.

Climate change contrarians continue to prefer using the UAH satellite data to look at global temperature trends, since that data set shows less warming than the regular surface station data sets, and rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The UAH data shows that in the 31-year period from 1979 - 2009, Earth's lower atmospheric temperature warmed by 0.13°C per decade. A separate analysis of the satellite data by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) puts this number at 0.15°C per decade. For comparison, NASA's GISS and the UK HadCRUT surface data sets (which don't use satellite data) show warming of 0.16°C and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. You can generate these numbers yourself, using the excellent woodfortrees.org plotting tools. The amount of global warming predicted in the 2007 IPCC report for the period 2010 - 2030 was 0.20°C per decade, so we are running about 25% below this predicted level of warming, when averaging over the past 31 years.

For further reading: I have a 2006 blog post on this, and realclimate.org has a technical discussion.

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
The Portlight.org disaster-relief effort continues in Haiti, with another container of specifically-requested medical supplies being shipped today. At the request of Portlight's on-site coordinator, Richard Lumarque, Portlight is committed to sending another container with 500 tents plus food and water. The cost of each shipment is $4300, so your donations are greatly appreciated! Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief.


Figure 3. Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, poses with double-amputee Darline Exidor, who received a wheelchair from Portlight. Portlight's team of ten relief workers has been laboring full-time the past two weeks to deliver donated supplies and assess the needs of the earthquake survivors.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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699. JRRP
how will be the ACE this season ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB predicted the snow threat down to I10 twelve days before it happened.

So did the GFS.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Models don't "show" or "predict" anything. They simply calculate a solution based on the mathematical assumptions and equations they are comprised of. If the assumptions of the builders of the models are correct and the math geeks (I'm a math geek, so I can use that term) interpreted, understood and correctly wrote the code AND tested the model in a valid environment, it works. If any of the above is incorrect or any of innumerable "unknown unknowns" pop up, it doesn't. Modeling is all we've got in a bunch of situations but it TOTALLY depends on the educated opinions on the builders which, as has been shown, VARIES HUGELY.


You said you were a math guy. What is your take on this item? PDF

Is it legit?

http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/beenstock/Nature_Paper091209.pdf
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So the models show the response of the warming. They do not actually predict the warming, humans put that in. Am i reading that right?
Models don't "show" or "predict" anything. They simply calculate a solution based on the mathematical assumptions and equations they are comprised of. If the assumptions of the builders of the models are correct and the math geeks (I'm a math geek, so I can use that term) interpreted, understood and correctly wrote the code AND tested the model in a valid environment, it works. If any of the above is incorrect or any of innumerable "unknown unknowns" pop up, it doesn't. Modeling is all we've got in a bunch of situations but it TOTALLY depends on the educated opinions on the builders which, as has been shown, VARIES HUGELY.
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So the models show the response of the warming. They do not actually predict the warming, humans put that in. Am i reading that right?


I often wonder about the influence of the homogenization and extrapolation processes on data that has been discussed recently on the models. I also wonder of the impact of other data on the models. (let alone the coding) As an example, how do the 12 or 5 tree ring samples from the Briffa study play in the coding and output of the models? I don't know, does anyone? I believe there are 23 models now, is that right?

I am not shooting darts, I really want to know........

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
693. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIXTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL GELANE (12-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion February 19 2010
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Gelane (968 hPa) located at 16.3S 62.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
10 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
15 NM from the center extending up to 25 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.5S 61.8E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.5S 61.1E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.8S 60.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 21.2S 58.9E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
System reached again the stage of tropical cyclone and the system has slightly intensified, colder central dense overcast. According to ASCAT data at 1756z and microwave SSMIS at 1519z, GELANE is called a midget and microwave AQUA at 2131z shows a little tilt between 37 and 85 channel
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
LOL!! Facts? and you're on this blog? good luck! No facts here, a lot of VERY educated opinions, but opinions none the less. All respect given to those with educated opinions...

Yes, facts. There are actually several meteorologists and skilled business professionals on here. And I enjoy their knowledge, humor and expertise.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So the models show the response of the warming. They do not actually predict the warming, humans put that in. Am i reading that right?


The climate models were developed during a time when the world was warming due to a warm PDO and warm AMO overlap. Because of that they had a cold bias back then. They corrected that bias, but now that the PDO is starting to cool and the AMO is soon to follow, the models have a warm bias because they were created and adjusted based on a warming earth. That's a theory...I don't have proof for that.

Don't be surprised if the earth cools a few tenths of a degree over the next 30 years. When the PDO and AMO go cold together, the atmosphere will respond due to the cold water. This relationship is easy to see when you look at history.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Ossqss:


This may help :)

How Do Climate Models Work?


So the models show the response of the warming. They do not actually predict the warming, humans put that in. Am i reading that right?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Correct all these computer models are complete guesses...
Stronger Hurricanes- Hasn't Happened.
Ice Shrinkage in the North countered by growth in the South.
Until an actual event that is stronger or more intense then anything weve ever seen before its all just a guess.


This may help :)

How Do Climate Models Work?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting Ossqss:


Not necessarily, the current litigation in process with respect to the EPA will require them to prove their CO2 endangerment finding. Considering that was based upon the IPCC report and nothing else, we will have some answers from that single event. No stone will be left unturned. Just my take :)

BTW, the debate is with the A and not the GW part.....


Correct all these computer models are complete guesses...
Stronger Hurricanes- Hasn't Happened.
Ice Shrinkage in the North countered by growth in the South.
Until an actual event that is stronger or more intense then anything weve ever seen before its all just a guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
I know NHC has change the time they will issue storm watch and warning for this seasons does anyone know if storm surge watch and warning will be issue diffrently for geograhly region as well anyone


Excerpt from Storm Surge Scales and Storm Surge Forecasting


New ways of communicating the threat have also been developed. NHC's probabilistic storm surge product, which provides the likelihood of storm surge values from 2 through 25 feet, became operational in 2009, and the NWS's Meteorological Development Laboratory is providing experimental, probabilistic storm surge exceedance products for 2010. In addition, coastal WFOs will provide experimental Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics in 2010; these include a qualitative graphic on the expected storm surge impacts. Finally, the NWS is exploring the possibility of issuing explicit Storm Surge Warnings, and such warnings could be implemented in the next couple of years. In all of these efforts, the NWS is working to provide specific and quantitative information to support decision-making at the local level.
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Quoting Drakoen:


One event does not prove or disapprove GW


Not necessarily, the current litigation in process with respect to the EPA will require them to prove their CO2 endangerment finding. Considering that was based upon the IPCC report and nothing else, we will have some answers from that single event. No stone will be left unturned. Just my take :)

BTW, the debate is with the A and not the GW part.....
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting Bordonaro:


JB goes above and beyond the call of duty. He likes to sensationalize every forecast he makes, I prefer the facts without insane hype. A lil hype is good, JB is just out of control. To each their own!
LOL!! Facts? and you're on this blog? good luck! No facts here, a lot of VERY educated opinions, but opinions none the less. All respect given to those with educated opinions...
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
We have had 49 days this year, where i live 42 of them have been below average... did you see the picture of England completely ice packed like some Hollywood movie, and you are trying to tell me its the warmest on record. Thats an insult to my intelligence...


The world has been warm this winter so far, but the big energy centers of the world (The far east, eastern USA, and Europe) have all been very cold. That has had a huge impact, but the world as a whole has been warm this winter as this graph shows:



And why has it been warm? The answer is simple: El Nino. When the biggest ocean in the world is warmer than normal, the atmosphere is going to warm as well.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Can we stop talking about GW no one is going to win
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have had 49 days this year, where i live 42 of them have been below average... did you see the picture of England completely ice packed like some Hollywood movie, and you are trying to tell me its the warmest on record. Thats an insult to my intelligence...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
680. ackee
Quoting Levi32:


As far as I know they only changed the advance times of TS and Hurricane watches/warnings. Storm surge warnings should remain the same.
Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


One event does not prove or disapprove GW


I'm about tired of explaining myself on this one. Let it go everyone. Anyone who knows me knows I wouldn't be that dumb. It was just a comment. I have an opinion on GW....everyone does.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this:



One event does not prove or disapprove GW
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
674. GeoffreyWPB 3:00 PM AKST on February 18, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this.

Your creditability just took a nose dive…I have no horse in this race, as I have no expertise on the subject.. But to point out because one small part of the planet has some record cold and snow, no way proves or disproves CC...It's not logical… jmho
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As I said, I never said that disproved global warming. However, this is sure a winter that puts a dent in what AGW people want everyone to believe, and this kind of thing makes them change their tune, as they now have in saying that GW will cause more snow.

That's all I'm saying.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:


I didn't say it did. It sure is funny how they try to say that GW now CAUSES the snowstorms. What next?

K let's not go further we all know GW is a non-ending debate.

true many GW believers turn any weather event into proof of GW
still I think it exists and even if it doesn't the steps to reduce GW reduce our dependency on oil and have countless positive impacts on the environment
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JB predicted the snow threat down to I10 twelve days before it happened.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this.

Your creditability just took a nose dive…I have no horse in this race, as I have no expertise on the subject.. But to point out because one small part of the planet has some record cold and snow, no way proves or disproves CC...It's not logical… jmho
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
I know NHC has change the time they will issue storm watch and warning for this seasons does anyone know if storm surge watch and warning will be issue diffrently for geograhly region as well anyone


As far as I know they only changed the advance times of TS and Hurricane watches/warnings. Storm surge warnings should remain the same.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:


Alright think what you like. I gotta defend the guy he's amazing, and the only reason people hate him so much is because he's not with the government. I say to everyone get the heck over it and accept the fact that the guy is a genius. He also nailed the winter forecast did he not? This winter has been cold and snowy in the south and eastern US, has it not? NOAA didn't forecast that did they?


I read his column every day. I also admire the guy. He makes the long-range low-percentage forecast that no one else even attempts. He's got a lot of guts. He owns when he's wrong and he is always out in front of the pack.
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Quoting Chucktown:
Perfect example from the "School of Bastardi". There is no way this wasn't scripted. It wasn't live so it had to be edited by Acuuweather, so they meant for this to go public.

Link


As if that guy had anything to do with JB. Maybe he's just a really crazy funny guy. His viewers love him. Enough said.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Terra MODIS high-resolution visible shot of Invest 90C. I overlayed the approximate position of the LLC.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
668. ackee
I know NHC has change the time they will issue storm watch and warning for this seasons does anyone know if storm surge watch and warning will be issue diffrently for geograhly region as well anyone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Perfect example from the "School of Bastardi". There is no way this wasn't scripted. It wasn't live so it had to be edited by Acuuweather, so they meant for this to go public.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Thank you Levi!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


What is the A.C.E. abbreviation stand for folks?


Accumulated Cyclone Energy.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Ya know there are other countries besides America
besides one day of an unusual event can neither prove or disprove GW you should know that by now.


I didn't say it did. It sure is funny how they try to say that GW now CAUSES the snowstorms. What next?

K let's not go further we all know GW is a non-ending debate.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting NttyGrtty:
True, A.C.E. will make A comeback this year but decades of data point to a gradual increase. Granted, last year may have been an annomoly, but to say "it is quite safe to say this season will be far more active than last year" may be a stretch. We'll see...


What is the A.C.E. abbreviation stand for folks?
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Quoting Levi32:


Well I think you guys just aren't used to a Meteorologist having to advertise for the company he works for. It's the private sector after all. And obviously nobody's going to be right 100% of the time.


I work in the private sector as well and while I agree you can't be always right, don't make outlandish forecasts just to get word out. As far as I'm concerned he's wrong more than he's right - but he may want it that way. One thing I always learned in TV, as bad as it sounds, bad exposure is better than no exposure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this:


Ya know there are other countries besides America
besides one day of an unusual event can neither prove or disprove GW you should know that by now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Well I think you guys just aren't used to a Meteorologist having to advertise for the company he works for. It's the private sector after all. And obviously nobody's going to be right 100% of the time.


JB goes above and beyond the call of duty. He likes to sensationalize every forecast he makes, I prefer the facts without insane hype. A lil hype is good, JB is just out of control. To each their own!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


This would be the year that the ACE makes a comeback though. The El Nino this winter has warmed and humidified the atmosphere in the tropics, making it ready for more activity. Once the El Nino collapses, as it already is beginning to do, that will set the stage for a more favorable upper-level pattern, which would allow more storms both in frequency and intensity. We'll see how it turns out, but I believe it is quite safe to say this season will be far more active than last year.
True, A.C.E. will make A comeback this year but decades of data point to a gradual increase. Granted, last year may have been an annomoly, but to say "it is quite safe to say this season will be far more active than last year" may be a stretch. We'll see...
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting AussieStorm:
Tornado tears through crops

A tornado has ripped through far north Queensland, amazing onlookers.

Residents say the tornado travelled through an area just south of Atherton yesterday afternoon, damaging crops.

Atherton resident Chris told ABC Local Radio, the tornado was strong enough to throw a pile of tractor tyres 100 metres into the air.

"I just couldn't believe my eyes. To the left of me, off the road there, a tornado, a funnel actually dropped," he said.

"The funnel was clear as. It went right up into the sky and you could see it dropping and as it was moving you could actually see it spinning the dust and the corn and it was all coming up to there."

Maize farmer Adrian Gallo says the tornado was about 10 metres wide and went straight through a pile of farming equipment.

"We've basically gone through the property, collecting gear - there's some gear that we've picked up 500 metres away," he said.

"There's a lot that's lost in the grass that we can't find.

"The tyres - I think the furthermost one would have been 50 metres away from where it was."

Weather bureau forecaster Bill O'Connor says the tornado was caused by a passing storm.

"In the past, we've seen damage that's obviously from a tornado. Any thunderstorm has the potential of producing one," he said.

Mr O'Connor says he was surprised by power of the tornado.

"Generally up here we don't get tornados that powerful I suppose but I think they are a little more frequent than what we give them credit for," he said.

"Fortunately they tend to develop in areas that aren't that inhabited."


- ABC
as time passes you will witness more of these and more often and wait till yeah see the size of the hail
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Chucktown is correct. Bastardi makes some right predictions and plenty of wrong ones. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. I'm not saying that JB is less accurate than other meteorologists, but he gives himself WAY too much credit. JB is not someone I care to watch.


Well I think you guys just aren't used to a Meteorologist having to advertise for the company he works for. It's the private sector after all. And obviously nobody's going to be right 100% of the time.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Drakoen:


The way I see it is the GFS is forecasting the teleconnections well but doesn't know what to do with it. GFS shows significant Greenland blocking giving way to a deep longwave trough in the east in accordance with a west-based negative NAO. Teleconnections show a large negative EPO western ridge and a negative AO which supports the concentration of the cold air central and eastern portions of the country. I don't think the GFS is handling the amplification or deamplifcatiion of systems rounding the base of this trough with an active southern branch of the jet stream. With a strong southern jet in can shove everything into the GOM as you have mentioned.


Drak, you hit that right on the head of the nail.
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Saxby's gale was a monster storm that hit Canada in the 1860s it was called Saxby's gale because a forecaster with the last name of Saxby said a combination of lunar effects would create a storm the following year. He was correct almost to the day. The science is unfounded. This either gives hope to long range forecasting or more likely shows how eventually someone will guess right.
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Quoting Levi32:


The GFS hates split-jets lol. It has a problem identifying differences between airmasses when the southern branch isn't thoroughly involved. When a storm forms because of the difference between modified cold air and fresh arctic air, it has a problem, and tries to bring in stuff out of the Gulf of Mexico, because the model can't imagine a nor'easter coming from anywhere else lol.


The way I see it is the GFS is forecasting the teleconnections well but doesn't know what to do with it. GFS shows significant Greenland blocking giving way to a deep longwave trough in the east in accordance with a west-based negative NAO. Teleconnections show a large negative EPO western ridge and a negative AO which supports the concentration of the cold air central and eastern portions of the country. I don't think the GFS is handling the amplification or deamplifcatiion of systems rounding the base of this trough with an active southern branch of the jet stream. With a strong southern jet in can shove everything into the GOM as you have mentioned.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Levi!! when did you get back!? How the hell are ya? I agree Bastardi basically nailed that 09-10 winter forecast...


Yesterday when I discovered Invest 90C and couldn't stay away lol. I'm doing alright. I've got some time for a little while so I hope to be around. Nice to see ya :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Chucktown:


Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. He works for tabloid weather and thats all it is. He makes sure everyone knows when he's right, but when a "hype" storm misses its quickly swept under the rug. I've been doing weather for 20 years and Accuweather hasn't changed.


Alright think what you like. I gotta defend the guy he's amazing, and the only reason people hate him so much is because he's not with the government. I say to everyone get the heck over it and accept the fact that the guy is a genius. He also nailed the winter forecast did he not? This winter has been cold and snowy in the south and eastern US, has it not? NOAA didn't forecast that did they?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.