Warmest January on record for the lower atmosphere

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on February 17, 2010

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Earth's lower atmosphere recorded its warmest January on record last month, according to data from both the University of Alabama, Hunstville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (Figure 1). The satellite measurements used to take the global temperature of the lower atmosphere began in December 1978, using the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) on polar-orbiting satellites. The January 2010 temperature anomaly was an impressive 0.72°C above the 1979 - 1998 average, easily beating the previous record of 0.59°C set in January 2007. Last month's anomaly was the 3rd warmest anomaly for any month, falling just 0.04°C cooler than the record warmest anomalies of 0.76°C from February and April 1998. The January 2010 satellite-measured temperatures continued a trend of very warm conditions we've seen in the lower atmosphere since the current El Niño event began in June 2009. Record high temperatures occurred in November 2009, and were the second highest on record in both July and September 2009, according to UAH. The record-breaking temperatures in the lower atmosphere are due to the heating of the atmosphere by the strong El Niño event that has been heating the waters of the Central and Eastern Pacific since June 2009, combined with the global warming trend of the past few decades. Since we are currently at the lowest level of solar output in decades, the Earth is currently about 0.1°C cooler than if we were near the maximum of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Had we been near solar maximum, we would have set an all-time warmest lower atmosphere temperature anomaly record last month.(Note, though, that there is about a 2-year time lag between solar maximum and when Earth's global temperature responds). It will be interesting to see if the current El Niño event, which is quite a bit weaker than the record-strongest El Niño of 1998, is capable of making 2010 beat 1998 for honors as the warmest year on record in the lower atmosphere.


Figure 1. Temperature of the lowest 8km of the atmosphere measured by satellite via the MSU instrument flown on polar-orbiting satellites between 1979 - 2010. Image credit: Dr. Roy Spencer, University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Real-time display of atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
The University of Alabama, Huntsville has a handy interactive plotting page that lets one plot up the historical and near-real-time satellite measurements of Earth's global average temperature at various levels of the atmosphere. These temperatures are measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. Note that this is a different instrument than the AQUA satellite's MSU instrument used by UAH to formulate their official monthly global temperature anomaly data set. The two satellites give similar results, although NOAA-15 requires an additional correction to account for drift of the satellite.


Figure 2. Temperature of the global atmosphere at 14,000 feet (4.4 km) as measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. This instrument has been flying since August 1998. The 20-year average (yellow line) and 20-year record highs (pink line) are for the period 1979 - 1998, using versions of the MSU instrument that flew on older satellites. The most recent data (green line), as of February 15, 2010, are marked by a white square, and have now fallen below the record for the date set in 1998. Note that during July 2009, November 2009, and January 2010, record high temperatures were measured at 14,000 feet altitude. A full description of the data is available from the University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Error sources in global atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
Satellite-measured temperatures of Earth's atmosphere, in my judgment, are inferior to using the surface based system of ground stations and ocean buoys for measuring global temperature changes. I have two reasons for saying this:

1) The satellite temperatures show large global increases when there is an El Niño event. While the surface also experiences an upward spike in temperatures during an El Niño, it is much less pronounced than the atmospheric heating that occurs. Since we live at the surface, those temperatures are more relevant.

2) According to a description of the MSU data available on the Remote Sensing Systems web site where the data is archived,


"The instruments in the MSU series were intended for day to day operational use in weather forecasting and thus are not calibrated to the precision needed for climate studies. A climate quality dataset can be extracted from their measurements only by careful inter-calibration of the eleven distinct MSU instruments."


In other words, it's very tricky to make an accurate measurement of Earth's temperature going back to 1979, when satellite measurements began. You have to merge data from eleven separate satellites, whose instruments were never designed to make the kind of precise long-term climate measurements that are being asked of them. While surface stations also have error sources, I believe that the uncertainty in the satellite-based global temperature measurements are higher.

Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, made a series of efforts to perform the careful inter-calibration needed beginning in the 1990s, and for over a decade successfully defended his conclusion that the MSU instruments were showing a much lower level of tropospheric warming than what climate models predicted. Christy was probably the most quoted scientist by the "greenhouse skeptics" during that period, and testified numerous times before Congress about his findings. This discrepancy was a prime argument Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) used in his famed 2003 speech when he referred to the threat of catastrophic global warming as the "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people." Greenhouse contrarian Dr. S. Fred Singer, who has probably more Congressional testimony about global warming under his belt than any other scientist, headlined his SEPP website for many years with the quote, "Computer models forecast rapidly rising global temperatures, but data from weather satellites and balloon instruments show no warming whatsoever. Nevertheless, these same unreliable computer models underpin the Global Climate Treaty." Michael Crichton also used the tropospheric warming discrepancy to give climate models a bad rap in his State of Fear novel. However, a series of papers published in 2004 and 2005 showed that the satellite inter-calibration methods used by Christy were incorrect. Christy conceded that his analysis had been in error, and participated in writing a statement put out by NOAA's Climate Change Science Program that detailed the error.

Climate change contrarians continue to prefer using the UAH satellite data to look at global temperature trends, since that data set shows less warming than the regular surface station data sets, and rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The UAH data shows that in the 31-year period from 1979 - 2009, Earth's lower atmospheric temperature warmed by 0.13°C per decade. A separate analysis of the satellite data by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) puts this number at 0.15°C per decade. For comparison, NASA's GISS and the UK HadCRUT surface data sets (which don't use satellite data) show warming of 0.16°C and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. You can generate these numbers yourself, using the excellent woodfortrees.org plotting tools. The amount of global warming predicted in the 2007 IPCC report for the period 2010 - 2030 was 0.20°C per decade, so we are running about 25% below this predicted level of warming, when averaging over the past 31 years.

For further reading: I have a 2006 blog post on this, and realclimate.org has a technical discussion.

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
The Portlight.org disaster-relief effort continues in Haiti, with another container of specifically-requested medical supplies being shipped today. At the request of Portlight's on-site coordinator, Richard Lumarque, Portlight is committed to sending another container with 500 tents plus food and water. The cost of each shipment is $4300, so your donations are greatly appreciated! Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief.


Figure 3. Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, poses with double-amputee Darline Exidor, who received a wheelchair from Portlight. Portlight's team of ten relief workers has been laboring full-time the past two weeks to deliver donated supplies and assess the needs of the earthquake survivors.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Invest 90-C sort of reminds me of western Pacific Typhoon Vamei in 2001, check this link out to see how a tropical cyclone forms close to the equator,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vamei
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Evening all,

Tropics already starting up in central-pac?!

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

400 PM HST WED FEB 17 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. An area of thunderstorms about 1300 miles south of Honolulu is associated with a low pressure area straddling the equator. This area of disturbed weather has remained stationary for several days and is expected to linger there for awhile. Though tropical cyclone development is more likely to occur south of the equator in the southern hemisphere, there is a slight chance that development could occur north of the equator.

However, Tropical storm formation is not expected in the central north Pacific over the next 48 hours.
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Hey, Hiya, xcool! I see your posts occasionally but I've been missing you for months!

Very late congratulations on the baby boy, Monsieur Daddy -- and Happy Saints win!

Anything new with your son? Besides smiling, farting, sleeping, the usual? Has he had rice cereal yet? :)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Bordonaro:


Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Unfortunately, it still predicts no major snowstorm for S. Ontario until possibly a week into March.






by then the heat from the daytime sun will be getting stronger and anything that falls will more than likly melt away as fast as it came once we get into early march our snow chances will drop off even more my big concearn will be ice storms as we progress towards spring transition and thats when we get normally a lot of freezing rain events on average in march we get only about 40 cm of snow over the entire march month so unless we get clobber which i think will not be the case our winter is done here we just got to get the next 30 over with and we should be in the clear for this year there is 26 days till march 15 the end of our winter snow clearing contract and the start of our landscaping contract
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
295. xcool
SEA SURFACE TEMPS omg
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294. xcool
lmao
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i know bo just foolin

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Unfortunately, it still predicts no major snowstorm for S. Ontario until possibly a week into March.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
i know bo just foolin
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
Quoting xcool:
:)


Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
KOG, the deepest hole drilled was about 30 miles in the Pacific Ocean, that is way down there in the upper mantle.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I don't think it's a mistake, I've seen plenty of quakes below 150 km to those as low as 650 km.


Something in the upper mantle has snapped a twig.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:

That is either a mistake, or there is something weird going on down there, that is over 337.5 miles deep!!


maybe those north koreans fooling around with something up there never know

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
From the Wall Street Journal online:

SEOUL—A strong earthquake shook a remote area of northeast China near the border of Russia and North Korea on Thursday morning, seismologists in the U.S. and South Korea reported.

The quake, measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale, happened about 10:13 a.m. local time and was centered in an area about 61 miles west-southwest of Vladivostok, Russia, and about 70 miles east of Yanji, China, according to authorities in the U.S. and South Korea.

The China Earthquake Networks Center later said it measured the quake magnitude as 6.5.

There were no immediate reports of casualties.

Though Vladivostok and Yanji are sizable cities, the area between them is mountainous and sparsely populated.
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285. xcool







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Quoting Bordonaro:

That is either a mistake, or there is something weird going on down there, that is over 337.5 miles deep!!


I don't think it's a mistake, I've seen plenty of quakes below 150 km to those as low as 650 km.
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283. xcool
:)
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Wait a minute, if the continental crust is only about 70 km deep, then are such deeper earthquakes magmatic quakes?

That is either a mistake, or there is something weird going on down there, that is over 337.5 miles deep!!




Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


IF the GFS 18Z run pans out, it is possible!


Unfortunately, it still predicts no major snowstorm for S. Ontario until possibly a week into March.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

At 562.5 km in depth, there will be no tsunami, below is a close up map of the affected area:



Wait a minute, if the continental crust is only about 70 km deep, then are such deeper earthquakes magmatic quakes?
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Quoting xcool:
NOLA SNOW BY 27 HMMMM


IF the GFS 18Z run pans out, it is possible!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:

At 562.5 km in depth, there will be no tsunami, below is a close up map of the affected area:

haven't seen one that deep in awhile
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
Ahh! The unfrozen zone above -1.5C has already encroached into Pine Island Bay!



Current Antarctic sea ice extent and concentration:

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
reports i can find indicate nothing as for tidal waves has occur so good think just a whole lotta shakin

At 562.5 km in depth, there will be no tsunami, below is a close up map of the affected area:

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


Wondering if the NW Coast of Japan experienced a tsunami or not as the quake struck just offshore a couple nundred miles from Japan?


It was also only 70 miles from Vladivostok, Russia, where half-a-million people live on a peninsula in the Sea of Japan.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Wondering if the NW Coast of Japan experienced a tsunami or not as the quake struck just offshore a couple nundred miles from Japan?
reports i can find indicate nothing as for tidal waves has occur so good think just a whole lotta shakin
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
Quoting Bordonaro:


Wondering if the NW Coast of Japan experienced a tsunami or not as the quake struck just offshore a couple nundred miles from Japan?


I doubt that any tsunami was produced as this quake was very deep (562.5 km) and the strongest surface shaking was "weak" (not enough to cause any damage).

By the way, does anyone know why I'm unable to log in through the "submit forecast" tab on WunderCast?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
323 PM HST WED FEB 17 2010

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0313 PM HST 17 FEB 2010
COORDINATES - 42.7 NORTH 130.9 EAST
LOCATION - E. RUSSIA-N.E. CHINA BORDER REG.
MAGNITUDE - 6.8 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.



Wondering if the NW Coast of Japan experienced a tsunami or not as the quake struck just offshore a couple nundred miles from Japan?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
Quoting Drakoen:
However, by the time hurricane season started 2005's temps looks like:



That comparison is kind of scary, considering that the entire swath from almost all of the Caribbean to northwestern Africa to the Iberian Peninsula is currently under a warm anomaly, and by hurricane season in 2005 the broken swath that didn't span as far as this year had fully immersed the Caribbean in warmth setting up for an active hurricane season, meaning that the conditions for this season could be more favourable especially for Cape Verde and Caribbean hurricanes (notice the 3C anomaly). Here are the current SST anomalies:




Quoting Levi32:


Well after looking it up I'm a little confused, as that cyclone only made it to 154W, and Oli made it to 152W before coming off its Cat 4 status. That's the numbers though. I don't know of a quick way to find records for the south Pacific.


Here's the map:




Quoting hydrus:
The numbers refer to the Bermuda high,s average peak barometric pressure in those months. If it pans out that way, storms that form in Sept and later may have more of a northerly track. WAY to early to say.


The only problem is, the Bermuda high right now is very small in the southeast central North Atlantic at 1017 mb, and constantly being disrupted by the powerful North Atlantic storms so much that the gyre has slowed down and produced those warm and cool anomalies.
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TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
323 PM HST WED FEB 17 2010

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0313 PM HST 17 FEB 2010
COORDINATES - 42.7 NORTH 130.9 EAST
LOCATION - E. RUSSIA-N.E. CHINA BORDER REG.
MAGNITUDE - 6.8 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
Preliminary Weather Data for DFW AP, TX. Today averaged -9F normal, again!

STATION: DALLAS FORT WORTH
MONTH: FEBRUARY
YEAR: 2010
LATITUDE: 32 54 N
LONGITUDE: 97 2 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA]
[PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 38.7
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 2.62
DPTR FM NORMAL: -9.2
DPTR FM NORMAL: 1.36
HIGHEST: 59 ON 5
GRTST 24HR 1.14 ON 11-12
LOWEST: 26 ON 9

SNOW, ICE PELLETS,
TOTAL MONTH: 12.5 INCHES
GRTST 24HR 11.2 ON 11
GRTST DEPTH: 11 ON 12
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Magnitude 6.7 - CHINA-RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA BORDER REGION
2010 February 18 01:13:17 UTC

To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #1 issued 02/17/2010 at 5:22PM PST

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Based on the depth of the earthquake within the earth, a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts.

At 5:13 PM Pacific Standard Time on February 17, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 6.8 occurred in the eastern Russia-northeast China border region at 539km depth. (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach, Hawaii will issue messages for Hawaii and other areas of the Pacific outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska.

This will be the only statement issued for this event by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center unless conditions warrant. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map and table. (NOTE: Travel time maps and tables indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave was generated.)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
the central pacific system is so odd, we'll have to see what it does tomorrow. Is the Central Pacific conductive for development now?
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90C is hanging around Kiribati, which might be a good thing for them, giving them a chance to fill their cisterns.

Anyone read Maarten J. Troost's first two books? A fun glimpse of island life!! The title of first book is not fully indicative of the content, for those puritanical wundergrounders.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Another snow storm maybe on tap with the GFS and ECMWF suggesting:

GFS:


GFS 18Z Run SURFACE map, for 192hrs 18Z next Th 2-25-10, very interesting!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:
Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion from 3:46pm tonight:

THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURPRISING AMOUNT OF PATTERN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS PROG AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS IS VERY WET...WITH QPF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH AREAWIDE...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR THIS
PACKAGE AND WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP AS RAIN. 42/MM


Another snow storm maybe on tap with the GFS and ECMWF suggesting:

GFS:
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evening everyone just checkin in been a busy day few major problems in building today but now everything back to normal i see everyone getting excited over 18z run think i will wait for the more reliable 00z 12z runs for a better outlook
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion from 3:46pm this afternoon, concerning next weeks cold and precip chances. Just 2" of snow sets an all time snow record :0)

THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURPRISING AMOUNT OF PATTERN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS PROG AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS IS VERY WET...WITH QPF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH AREAWIDE...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIP
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR THIS
PACKAGE AND WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP AS RAIN. 42/MM
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
260. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Gelane (975 hPa) located at 14.6S 62.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
10 NM from the center extending up to 20 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant and 110 NM in the southeastern quardrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 62.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.8S 62.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.3S 61.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 19.1S 60.3E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
System keeps on weakening. Probability for re-itensification to tropical cyclone status seems very low now although it should not be completely ruled off.
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Quoting Skyepony:
The lasy was starting from sw side going NE to about the equator..this continues NE into the Northern Hemisphere.. South 1/2 of this looks a little stronger.


Yeah but that was 13 hours ago. The southern side had a lot more spice to it then. Compare 12z this morning when that scan was taken to the present:

12z:



Now:



The northern side clearly has the edge convection-wise now. That will probably change in time though.
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258. Skyepony (Mod)
The last was starting from SW side going NE to about the equator..this continues NE into the Northern Hemisphere.. South 1/2 of this looks a little stronger.
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Quoting Skyepony:
There's a good cloudsat pass on 90C today. Looks like waves are up & some unusual spots were the heat looks to be coming up & getting through the frozen layer on top..


That's interesting...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Another look at the 0z full shot:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26746
256. Skyepony (Mod)
There's a good cloudsat pass on 90C today. Looks like waves are up & some unusual spots were the heat looks to be coming up & getting through the frozen layer on top..
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0z visible image:



The northern center is moving slowly east towards Christmas Island. Some convection is popping up near the center of circulation, and the system looks pretty nice for being at only 1.9N.

The southern center appears to be drifting in a westward direction. It still looks ragged, disorganized, and hard to pinpoint on satellite imagery. However, low-level vorticity in the area remains quite strong.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26746
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening everybody.

Drak, I see ur posting the SE WX blog again. Kewl.

It stayed pretty cold here today, with daytime high only reaching 72. Currently it's already almost 10 degrees colder than that. It looks like last night's cloud cover is gone, so we may drop into the upper / mid 50s overnight.

Our average max temp at this time of year is usually more like 79, so this is abnormally cool for us. Normally by the 3rd week in Feb we are starting to see a general warming trend, with some of the best weather of the year from about 15 Feb to 15 Mar - bright sunny days with cool breezes and temps in the upper 70s. I'm starting to think that temps will average out by the end of the winter, since Nov / Dec were abnormally warm, while Jan / Feb have been cooler than average.



I'm only writing blogs on significant weather events that may affect the South.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
The northern center looks stronger but it might be too far south to become anything
Quoting BahaHurican:
That does seem pretty far south for development. However, we seem to be seeing something new every year (now that we have the satellite imaging to keep us informed), so I wouldn't automatically rule it out.


The northern center is currently the most organized of the two but the bulk of the low-level vorticity is south of the equator. I doubt the northern side can do anything while it's this close to the southern center. Its best chance is to have the southern center develop and move off to the south, giving some room between the two. This is the scenario given by the GFS model. However, the two could also combine into one system in either hemisphere and develop as one entity.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26746
Quoting all4hurricanes:
The northern center looks stronger but it might be too far south to become anything
That does seem pretty far south for development. However, we seem to be seeing something new every year (now that we have the satellite imaging to keep us informed), so I wouldn't automatically rule it out.
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Evening everybody.

Drak, I see ur posting the SE WX blog again. Kewl.

It stayed pretty cold here today, with daytime high only reaching 72. Currently it's already almost 10 degrees colder than that. It looks like last night's cloud cover is gone, so we may drop into the upper / mid 50s overnight.

Our average max temp at this time of year is usually more like 79, so this is abnormally cool for us. Normally by the 3rd week in Feb we are starting to see a general warming trend, with some of the best weather of the year from about 15 Feb to 15 Mar - bright sunny days with cool breezes and temps in the upper 70s. I'm starting to think that temps will average out by the end of the winter, since Nov / Dec were abnormally warm, while Jan / Feb have been cooler than average.

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The northern center looks stronger but it might be too far south to become anything
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 18z showing a major southern snow storm late next week. Watching for the trends.


With all due respect I sure hope it will be the last one for this winter....

Taco :0)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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