Winter Olympics forecast: near-record warmth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on February 15, 2010

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Under sunny skies and warm southwest winds the temperature in Vancouver, British Columbia climbed to 54°F (12.4°C) yesterday, just missing the record of 12.9°C (55°F) for the date, set in 1991 (records in Vancouver go back to 1937). That was marvelous weather for all the joggers that were out in t-shirts and shorts in Vancouver yesterday, but is lousy weather if you're trying to hold a Winter Olympics. The men's downhill was postponed yesterday and rescheduled for today, because of rain and bad snow. The women's combined, originally scheduled to run Saturday, has been postponed until Thursday. The mountain has been getting snow at the top, a mix of snow and rain along the middle section, and rain at the bottom, making for very difficult skiing conditions. Practice runs have been mostly been canceled. In West Vancouver, where the moguls competition was held yesterday, snow had to be trucked and helicoptered in because there wasn't enough on the ground. The snow-making machines weren't any help, because it was too warm to make snow. Too bad Philadelphia or Washington D.C. didn't make a bid for the Winter Olympics! It's an upside-down winter when Canada has trouble getting snow, and Washington D.C. gets five feet.

As we can see from a plot of the temperature departure from average for the month of January (Figure 1), most of Canada has seen very unusual warmth, with temperatures over 5°C (9°F) covering large swathes of the country.


Figure 1. Departure of January temperature from average for the strong to moderate strength El Niño year of 2010 (left), and a composite of the last five years that had a moderate to strong El Niño (right). Note that typically, an El Niño event brings much warmer than average temperatures to Vancouver, and cooler than average conditions to Florida. This year has seen an extreme amplification of this pattern. The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is evident over eastern Canada and Greenland, where exceptionally warm temperatures were recorded. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Why all the warmth in Vancouver? El Niño partly to blame
So, what's going on? The average high temperature in Vancouver this time of year is typically 8°C (46°F). Vancouver has seen above-average temperatures every day this month, and tied one daily record so far. This unusual February warmth follows a record warm month of January, which averaged 3°C (5.4°F) above average, beating the previous record set in 2006 by a pretty significant margin, 0.9°C (1.6°F). Nearby Seattle, Washington had its warmest January in 120 years of record keeping, and both Oregon and Washington recorded their 4th warmest January. As we can see from a plot of the temperature departure from average for the month of January (Figure 1), most of Canada saw very unusual warmth, with temperature anomalies over 5°C (9°F) covering large swathes of the country. Record warm January temperatures were observed not only over British Columbia, but also over Manitoba and over much of Quebec, where half of the province's twelve largest cities experienced their warmest or second warmest January on record. Unusual Canadian warmth is to be expected during a moderate to strong El Niño episode, which is what we've had this winter in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The pattern we've seen during the previous five moderate to strong El Niños dating back to 1987 (Figure 1, right) shows this trend, and also the trend towards colder than average conditions in Florida. However, the pattern for January 2010 shows an extreme amplification of this El Niño pattern. We had record warmth over much of Canada, and Florida got socked with its 10th coldest January on record. The extreme amplification of the January temperature pattern was due in part to the influence of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, a natural wind pattern over the North Atlantic measured by the difference in pressure between Iceland and ocean areas to the south. That difference in pressure was remarkably small in the first half of January, leading to the weakest Arctic Oscillation pattern in 60 years of record keeping. This allowed cold air to spill southwards into Florida, and helped bring very warm temperatures to Greenland and Eastern Canada. El Niño, combined with the Arctic Oscillation, all superimposed upon exceptionally warm global temperatures, is probably the best explanation for the record January warmth in Canada. Globally, January 2010 was the 4th warmest January on record, with global ocean temperatures the 2nd warmest on record, according to NOAA.

The forecast: near-record warmth for Vancouver
The forecast for Vancouver for the remainder of the week calls for temperatures above 10°C (50°F) each day. Today's forecast high of 10°C (50°F) will approach the record high for the date of 12.6°C (55°F). The long range forecast through the remainder of the Winter Olympics promises continued near-record warmth, as the jet stream is projected to stay in its current El Niño-type pattern. In this configuration, a strong ridge of high pressure stays anchored over the Pacific coast, allowing plenty of warm air from the southwest into British Columbia. Unfortunately for the winter games, I expect that Vancouver will end up experiencing its 1st or 2nd warmest February on record.

No major snowstorms in sight
Today's snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic has shifted northwards, meaning the that the maximum 4 - 8 inches of snow from this storm will pass north of snow-weary Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Baltimore. The computer models are showing that this will be the last significant snow storm to affect the eastern half of the U.S. for at least a week, and residents of the Mid-Atlantic can look forward to a slow but steady melting of their huge piles of snow. This is exactly what is needed to avoid a serious flooding situation--a rapid thaw or large rainstorm would have been a major problem.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest. I did an interview with the Washington Post weather blog by the "Capital Weather Gang", for those interested.

Jeff Masters

2010 Winter Olympic Torch Relay (galeao)
The Olympic Torch Relay departing Mackin Park in Coquitlam, BC. Crowds lined the streets and braved the Vancouver rain to cheer on the torchbearers as they continued on to the city of Burnaby. Just one more day before the Olympic Cauldron will be lit in Vancouver on February 12, 2010.
2010 Winter Olympic Torch Relay
Ballet Of Light (galeao)
The 'Ballet Of Light', formally known as artist Rafael Lozano-Hemmer's art project Vectorial Elevation, consists of 20 robotically controlled, 10,000-watt Zenon lights that have been installed at Vanier Park and Sunset Beach in Vancouver. Beginning on February 5, they will be lighting the sky over English Bay every night until dawn, right up to the last day of the 2010 Winter Olympics on February 28. The pattern of the lights changes every 10 seconds in response to geometric designs submitted from the public via the Internet. It is quite a sight but works best with low clouds like this evening. View with the Inukshuk at the southern end of English Bay Beach.
Ballet Of Light

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Quoting hydrus:
The science associated with climatology is very complex. Some differences in opinion are inevitable. Showing respect for others thoughts, interests, and especially Dr. Masters blog should be a no brainer. Anyone typing to much groundless bull will never be taken seriously anyway. Hope your back is good. My Dad made it through his surgery.:)


The issue here is the mental and probably calendar age of thiose involved; add to that the general anonymity of the format and people tend to say things they wouldn't have the guts to say to your face...it's one of the strengths of the format, but also one of the weknesses and people tend to break the conventions because no one knows who they are...

I'm so glad to hear about your dad; hopefully he'll get through all the post-op happiness and be fine!
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
No major snowstorms in sight
Today's snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic has shifted northwards, meaning the that the maximum 4 - 8 inches of snow from this storm will pass north of snow-weary Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Baltimore. The computer models are showing that this will be the last significant snow storm to affect the eastern half of the U.S. for at least a week, and residents of the Mid-Atlantic can look forward to a slow but steady melting of their huge piles of snow. This is exactly what is needed to avoid a serious flooding situation--a rapid thaw or large rainstorm would have been a major problem.


And for this we give thanks...!
yes ya all had a enough its only fun for so long
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting EnergyMoron:
Reply to Eagle101:

I am experiencing first hand the cost associated with ill-thought-out ways to address energy issues.

What is sad (and nobody seems to mention this) is that if we stop all the WASTING ENERGY that occurs, especially in this country, we can make a huge dent in starting to solve our carbon emissions problem.

And save money.

And actually do something to stimulate that economy that will HELP us all.

And reduce dependence upon foreign oil.

And help reduce our national debt (it is no coincidence that our national debt is about equal to our national balance of payments deficit).

This entire argument is silly.


Greetings Energy;

I have come very close, during the last three years, to installing a whole-house Solar System, to include water heating. My incentive was three-fold: Reduce my families dependance on the grid; recieve a tax credit from the Feds, and my state (Florida) has an additional off-set, not to mention that estimated 25 year system pay-off (which just happens to coincide with the estimated 25 year life span of the cells!) Quite frankly, I am glad at this point that I did not. It seem's that many more here in Florida made the leap, only to find out that Florida's funds for reimbursement do not even come close to funding those who took risk, using there own funds. There are now literally thousands (you read that right) who are waiting on refunds. So, based on Florida's poor planning, many who were once considering this move now have zero incentive to proceed. Truly a shame. Take care, and have a great day.

I have not given up, and will continue to check system costs. There still may be solar in our future...I hope!

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reply to Eagle101:

I am experiencing first hand the cost associated with ill-thought-out ways to address energy issues.

What is sad (and nobody seems to mention this) is that if we stop all the WASTING ENERGY that occurs, especially in this country, we can make a huge dent in starting to solve our carbon emissions problem.

And save money.

And actually do something to stimulate that economy that will HELP us all.

And reduce dependence upon foreign oil.

And help reduce our national debt (it is no coincidence that our national debt is about equal to our national balance of payments deficit).

This entire argument is silly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah EL Nino comes and we have the Winter Olympics, skiing on top of the mountain and bikini weather in Vancouver (or almost) Yes the weather has been bad but VANOC was smart enough to look at long term weather patterns last year and they knew this weather was a possibility so they prepared for it as best they could. I do not want to know how much they spent helecoptering in snow to Cypress mountain, we will be paying for that for years to come, but generally things have been going well. It is looking like the Mens downhill may be postponed again but that is the nice thing with the Olympics it is for 16 days just in case events need to be re-booked, there are alternate days they can run it on. And the nice thing with the warm weather in downtown Vancouver is that the indoor events like the speed skating yesterday were broadcast to a nearby park onto a jumbotron for people who couldn't afford to go. They get to watch for free if they don't mind being outside.

And Canada finally won our first gold medal on home soil. WHOOO HOOO GO CANADA GO.
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Quoting Grothar:
Cannot wait to get back to sunny, warm Florida.


Did you see the wind gusts measured the other day?

60 - 70 mph gusts, not by damage estimate, but directly measured. That 64 mph at Miami Beach is credible, I can say. Was a rather hairy couple of minutes...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/100212_rpts.html
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Grothar's post, yah, I agree.

Even before the post that he found offensive (and I can tell why) I did raise the Jones recant, not as a foe of the theory behind AGW but a friend.

The point is that this entire debate is out of control and the fundamental science is being drowned out by the various political sources.

The questioned I tried to raise is how do the real serious scientists come forth? Methinks Dr. Masters is doing a good job but there must be much more. Yes, heavy snow was already predicted as a consequence of AGW so why is this news?

I have read most of the Icelandic sagas (my wife is a medievalist) and while it wasn't exactly toasty in Greenland it was warmer during the medieval warm period. Jared Diamond in one of his books documents fairly well the inability of the Norse living in Greenland to adapt to the changing climatic situation.

Anyway, I discovered a Legionnaire's issue in the design of my solar storage tank today and I am sitting at home taking vacation rather going to work since mentioning the "L" word to wife had the predictable consequences.

Focus on efficiency, please. Lower your carbon footprint AND save money!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thank's Dr.......Speaking of PBS (and global warming issues) the new 2010 snow on Cave Diving is very interesting. The dives are in the blue holes on the Bahamas and some very interesting studies being done on the correlation between massive SAL outbreaks and rapid warming issues as measured in the SAL "layers" found in some of the stalagmite-stalagtite core samples from the caves. If you beleive what the UM scientists are implying in the show, a huge Saharan Drought/SAL Outburst can be hitorically correlated to a pretty rapid global warming/sea level elevation episode.


Ya I saw that show, it does make perfect scents, considering they stay untouched by oxygen, which preserves the bones, sediments, and chemicals present in the atmosphere.

They showed a tortoise shell with holes in it from the bottom a blue hole. They later found a crocodile skull not far from the tortoise shell. The put the crocodile teeth up to the tortoise shell and the holes matched the crocodile teeth, the tortoise fell in and the crocodile followed.

It was a very interesting show.
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Quoting Patrap:
Been kinda neglecting my Blogging duties in lieu of chasing the Lombardi Trophy around town during various Parades.
Snow last Thursday in McComb,Miss was awesome stuff too.

Totally understandable, and I think it's okay a lot of us are with you in spirit!
Quoting atmoaggie:

Bud!?! What about Abita, Dixie, or Heiner Brau?
1

I was hoping someone (else, besides me) would say that!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Patrap:
Been kinda neglecting my Blogging duties in lieu of chasing the Lombardi Trophy around town during various Parades.


Snow last Thursday in McComb,Miss was awesome stuff too.


Blogging duties? When you have the Lombardi to chase? I think not...
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Greetings and good morning everyone. I am posting the story below as I was quite shocked by the revelations by Prof. Jones. I know there are those on this board who will immediately dismiss the article by saying something like “it comes from a denier news source” or “provide references NOW” or some like nonsense. These are statements by Prof. Jones himself…no other “source” needed.

This is quite scary, really. Entire nations have (or will attempt to) put in place policies which will cost nations, corporations, and individuals (who will most likely be the most hurt by such policies) a great deal of both currency and resources, even at a time when the world’s economy as a whole is in serious trouble.

To make my position clear, let me state the following: I am a believer in “Climate Change.” After all, the climate has been changing since long before man’s first footprints were made, so to speak. I am a believer in the Scientific Method, provided bias and corruption are excluded. The “scandals” have certainly biased me towards “doubting” the science, as it has most certainly been corrupted. I do have an open mind, and will continue to do so.

Why the need to manipulate data? This is what concerns me the most. Even the most respected scientists will admit that we have not broken the code on climate processes. When the models did not match the reality, we point out that the model did not account for this or that variable. Yet we are ready to propose costly solutions when we do not yet have the “big picture.”

One last statement: I fully support embracing ‘green’ technologies, and freely admit that corporate greed has made us less than good stewards of the environment. We have a long way to go for sure. Yet, for all the hype, I do not see a single government investing in making ‘green’ technologies more affordable, to the extent that the masses will spend their hard earned dollars for readily. Also, I will say that no one, and I repeat, no one will chase me off the board by attacking my position. This was done before, and quite frankly, after thinking about it awhile, I have come to recognize such practices (just silence them…they will go away). So, feel free to attack all you want. I say, we are just not there yet. We will be someday, I am sure. Taking such a small snapshoot of the history of the planet and attempting to extrapolate it into something on the scale we see today, well, I won’t go there. I have a feeling, in the end, “Mother Nature” will prove to be much more difficult to explain then we can ever imagine.

Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995

By Jonathan Petre
Last updated at 5:12 PM on 14th February 2010

Comments (731)
Add to My Stories


-Data for vital 'hockey stick graph' has gone missing
-There has been no global warming since 1995
-Warming periods have happened before - but NOT due to man-made changes

The academic at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change, has admitted that he has trouble ‘keeping track’ of the information.

Colleagues say that the reason Professor Phil Jones has refused Freedom of Information requests is that he may have actually lost the relevant papers.

Professor Jones told the BBC yesterday there was truth in the observations of colleagues that he lacked organisational skills, that his office was swamped with piles of paper and that his record keeping is ‘not as good as it should be’.

The data is crucial to the famous ‘hockey stick graph’ used by climate change advocates to support the theory.

Professor Jones also conceded the possibility that the world was warmer in medieval times than now – suggesting global warming may not be a man-made phenomenon.

And he said that for the past 15 years there has been no ‘statistically significant’ warming.

The admissions will be seized on by sceptics as fresh evidence that there are serious flaws at the heart of the science of climate change and the orthodoxy that recent rises in temperature are largely man-made.

Professor Jones has been in the spotlight since he stepped down as director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit after the leaking of emails that sceptics claim show scientists were manipulating data.

The raw data, collected from hundreds of weather stations around the world and analysed by his unit, has been used for years to bolster efforts by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to press governments to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

More...
MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: The professor's amazing climate change retreat

Following the leak of the emails, Professor Jones has been accused of ‘scientific fraud’ for allegedly deliberately suppressing information and refusing to share vital data with critics.

Discussing the interview, the BBC’s environmental analyst Roger Harrabin said he had spoken to colleagues of Professor Jones who had told him that his strengths included integrity and doggedness but not record-keeping and office tidying.

Mr Harrabin, who conducted the interview for the BBC’s website, said the professor had been collating tens of thousands of pieces of data from around the world to produce a coherent record of temperature change.

That material has been used to produce the ‘hockey stick graph’ which is relatively flat for centuries before rising steeply in recent decades.

According to Mr Harrabin, colleagues of Professor Jones said ‘his office is piled high with paper, fragments from over the years, tens of thousands of pieces of paper, and they suspect what happened was he took in the raw data to a central database and then let the pieces of paper go because he never realised that 20 years later he would be held to account over them’.

Asked by Mr Harrabin about these issues, Professor Jones admitted the lack of organisation in the system had contributed to his reluctance to share data with critics, which he regretted.

But he denied he had cheated over the data or unfairly influenced the scientific process, and said he still believed recent temperature rises were predominantly man-made.

Asked about whether he lost track of data, Professor Jones said: ‘There is some truth in that. We do have a trail of where the weather stations have come from but it’s probably not as good as it should be.

‘There’s a continual updating of the dataset. Keeping track of everything is difficult. Some countries will do lots of checking on their data then issue improved data, so it can be very difficult. We have improved but we have to improve more.’

He also agreed that there had been two periods which experienced similar warming, from 1910 to 1940 and from 1975 to 1998, but said these could be explained by natural phenomena whereas more recent warming could not.


He further admitted that in the last 15 years there had been no ‘statistically significant’ warming, although he argued this was a blip rather than the long-term trend.

And he said that the debate over whether the world could have been even warmer than now during the medieval period, when there is evidence of high temperatures in northern countries, was far from settled.

Sceptics believe there is strong evidence that the world was warmer between about 800 and 1300 AD than now because of evidence of high temperatures in northern countries.

But climate change advocates have dismissed this as false or only applying to the northern part of the world.

Professor Jones departed from this consensus when he said: ‘There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia.

‘For it to be global in extent, the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern hemisphere. There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions.

‘Of course, if the MWP was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today, then obviously the late 20th Century warmth would not be unprecedented. On the other hand, if the MWP was global, but was less warm than today, then the current warmth would be unprecedented.’

Sceptics said this was the first time a senior scientist working with the IPCC had admitted to the possibility that the Medieval Warming Period could have been global, and therefore the world could have been hotter then than now.

Professor Jones criticised those who complained he had not shared his data with them, saying they could always collate their own from publicly available material in the US. And he said the climate had not cooled ‘until recently – and then barely at all. The trend is a warming trend’.

Mr Harrabin told Radio 4’s Today programme that, despite the controversies, there still appeared to be no fundamental flaws in the majority scientific view that climate change was largely man-made.

But Dr Benny Pieser, director of the sceptical Global Warming Policy Foundation, said Professor Jones’s ‘excuses’ for his failure to share data were hollow as he had shared it with colleagues and ‘mates’.

He said that until all the data was released, sceptics could not test it to see if it supported the conclusions claimed by climate change advocates.

He added that the professor’s concessions over medieval warming were ‘significant’ because they were his first public admission that the science was not settled.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-gl obal-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html?printingPage=true

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Quoting Floodman:
I agree with Grothar one hundred percent; amongst civilized people there are naturally differences in opinion. The mark of a mature person is that they accept the fact that someone disagrees with their opinion and moves on.

I find the people that come here, to Dr. Masters blog, and disrespect him on his own blog because he doesn't agree with their opinions disgusting and beneath reproach; they are not worth the time it takes to call them out and I simply ignore them...I recommend that action to the rest of us adults here that understand how to have a civilized discourse.

Thank you, Dr. Masters, for giving us this place to discuss the various subjects aligned with the weather and climate and I apologize to you for my fellow bloggers who haven't got the decency to treat you with the respect you're due...
The science associated with climatology is very complex. Some differences in opinion are inevitable. Showing respect for others thoughts, interests, and especially Dr. Masters blog should be a no brainer. Anyone typing to much groundless bull will never be taken seriously anyway. Hope your back is good. My Dad made it through his surgery.:)
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Clarification to an earlier clarification. In an earlier blog, I mentioned a personal remark about me, which may have been a light chide rather than a personal attack. In the same blog I mentioned about derogatory remarks made about Dr. Masters. This remark was in no way related to the blogger who made the comment about me. It was in reference to a number of other blogger's comments. I apologize if there may have been an inference by anyone that it was directed towards them. Perfect example why no one should write a response when angered. I learned by my own example. (Mea culpa..transaltion "My bad"

Now, on a lighter note. We are expecting about 10 inches of snow here in PA. Cannot wait to get back to sunny, warm Florida.
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Quoting Patrap:
Lundi Gras is today,..tomorrow is Fat Tuesday or Mardi Gras.

Curling Budweiser is on my to do list tomorrow.

But its still not a Winter Olympic Event sadly.

Crowds pack the streets to see Drew Brees reign as Mardi Gras' King of Bacchus


Bud!?!

What about Abita, Dixie, or Heiner Brau?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
NOVA is reairing it's episode "Extreme Ice" tomorrow on your local PBS station: Link


Thank's Dr.......Speaking of PBS (and global warming issues) the new 2010 snow on Cave Diving is very interesting. The dives are in the blue holes on the Bahamas and some very interesting studies being done on the correlation between massive SAL outbreaks and rapid warming issues as measured in the SAL "layers" found in some of the stalagmite-stalagtite core samples from the caves. If you believe what the UM scientists are implying in the show, a huge Saharan Drought/SAL Outbreak can be historically correlated to a pretty rapid global warming/sea level elevation episode.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Been kinda neglecting my Blogging duties in lieu of chasing the Lombardi Trophy around town during various Parades.


Snow last Thursday in McComb,Miss was awesome stuff too.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


I thought 12 ounce curls were a summer event...:)


Not during "Mardi-Gras".... It started yesterday with Joe Cain Day here in Mobile and want stop untill midnite tomorrow.... hehehe

Taco :0)
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Quoting FatPenguin:


What if it's the warmest January on record, globally?

That's what we have, per Dr. Roy Spencer's satellite data.

Not much of a record, unfortunately...
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Quoting Patrap:
Lundi Gras is today,..tomorrow is Fat Tuesday or Mardi Gras.

Curling Budweiser is on my to do list tomorrow.

But its still not a Winter Olympic Event sadly.

Crowds pack the streets to see Drew Brees reign as Mardi Gras' King of Bacchus



I here Ya Pat I myself will be curlin a Moutain Dew and enjoying "Fat-Tuesday"

so "Let The Good Times Roll"

Taco :0)
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Quoting Patrap:
BR>

Lundi Gras is today,..tomorrow is Fat Tuesday or Mardi Gras.

Curling Budweiser is on my to do list tomorrow.

But its still not a Winter Olympic Event sadly.

Crowds pack the streets to see Drew Brees reign as Mardi Gras' King of Bacchus



I thought 12 ounce curls were a summer event...:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lundi Gras is today,..tomorrow is Fat Tuesday or Mardi Gras.

Curling Budweiser is on my to do list tomorrow.

But its still not a Winter Olympic Event sadly.

Crowds pack the streets to see Drew Brees reign as Mardi Gras' King of Bacchus

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting doabarrelroll:
If its a warmer than average season its NOT GW if its a colder than average season its NOT GW


What if it's the warmest January on record, globally?

That's what we have, per Dr. Roy Spencer's satellite data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:
I agree with Grothar one hundred percent; amongst civilized people there are naturally differences in opinion. The mark of a mature person is that they accept the fact that someone disagrees with their opinion and moves on.

I find the people that come here, to Dr. Masters blog, and disrespect him on his own blog because he doesn't agree with their opinions disgusting and beneath reproach; they are not worth the time it takes to call them out and I simply ignore them...I recommend that action to the rest of us adults here that understand how to have a civilized discourse.

Thank you, Dr. Masters, for giving us this place to discuss the various subjects aligned with the weather and climate and I apologize to you for my fellow bloggers who haven't got the decency to treat you with the respect you're due...

Amen.

The ignore button is a fantastic thing. Makes comments that are very disrespectful go "poof".

When you combine a large audience (like Dr. M's blog), and the relative anonymity of the internet, the real person comes out. Some of us really are mature, responsible adults (just look at everything Portlight has done). Some of us.. not so much (just look at any GW/CC blog). Its a shame, really.
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Well said Grothar.... And thank you AwakeInMaryland for reposting that.... There are a few people on this blog that do need to read that and maybe even 2 or 3 times so they get it....

Thanks Dr Masters for the update....

Taco :0)
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9. Skyepony (Mod)
Nature Geoscience, published online 14 February 2010; doi: 10.1038/ngeo765
Rapid submarine melting of the calving faces of West Greenland glaciers
Eric Rignot* (University of California, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA 92617, U.S.A., and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA 91109, U.S.A.), Michele Koppes (University of British Columbia, Department of Geography, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z2, Canada) and Isabella Velicogna (University of California, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA 92617, U.S.A., and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA 91109, U.S.A.)

Abstract

Widespread glacier acceleration has been observed in Greenland in the past few years1, 2, 3, 4 associated with the thinning of the lower reaches of the glaciers as they terminate in the ocean5, 6, 7. These glaciers thin both at the surface, from warm air temperatures, and along their submerged faces in contact with warm ocean waters8. Little is known about the rates of submarine melting9, 10, 11 and how they may affect glacier dynamics. Here we present measurements of ocean currents, temperature and salinity near the calving fronts of the Eqip Sermia, Kangilerngata Sermia, Sermeq Kujatdleq and Sermeq Avangnardleq glaciers in central West Greenland, as well as ice-front bathymetry and geographical positions. We calculate water-mass and heat budgets that reveal summer submarine melt rates ranging from 0.7±0.2 to 3.9±0.8 m d−1. These rates of submarine melting are two orders of magnitude larger than surface melt rates, but comparable to rates of iceberg discharge. We conclude that ocean waters melt a considerable, but highly variable, fraction of the calving fronts of glaciers before they disintegrate into icebergs, and suggest that submarine melting must have a profound influence on grounding-line stability and ice-flow dynamics.

*Correspondence e-mail: erignot@uci.edu

Link to abstract: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo765.html
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 197 Comments: 38787
I agree with Grothar one hundred percent; amongst civilized people there are naturally differences in opinion. The mark of a mature person is that they accept the fact that someone disagrees with their opinion and moves on.

I find the people that come here, to Dr. Masters blog, and disrespect him on his own blog because he doesn't agree with their opinions disgusting and beneath reproach; they are not worth the time it takes to call them out and I simply ignore them...I recommend that action to the rest of us adults here that understand how to have a civilized discourse.

Thank you, Dr. Masters, for giving us this place to discuss the various subjects aligned with the weather and climate and I apologize to you for my fellow bloggers who haven't got the decency to treat you with the respect you're due...
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...Re-Thank from previous blog :)

Mr. Grothar.. thank you sir!
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Re-Post from previous blog:

369. Grothar 2:58 PM GMT on February 15, 2010

Most of you know me on the blog. I have never got into the argument of AGW either pro or con. Therefore, I would find it difficult to believe anyone could know my full position on subject. However, I noticed a comment this morning in which my name was mentioned. As many of you know, I was born in the U.S. of American Parents. In the U.S. since the 1800's. I was educated in Europe, residing mostly in the Scandinavian countries and Germany, but many other countries as well (including Greenland).

There reference this morning was to my "denial" of conditions in Greenland when the early Viking settlers lived there. If some of you may not realize, the schools in the Scandinavia countries often teach the Old Norse languages and we must read the full history of our countries,even to the point of learning the old runic alpabet. I am quite well aware of the large Viking settlements which were in Greenland from approximately 800-1200 A.D. The climate was much warmer than it is today, especially along the southwestern coast. There was farming, grazing, cattle raising and abundant forests along the coastal area. The settlements may have supported population well over 10,000 inhabitans. I have visited many of the sites of the old villages.

The clarification I attempeted to make to one of the bloggers a while back, was that the ice sheets were still relatively the same at that time as they are today. The entire island of Greenland was not a lush paradise. Even at that time, the winters were much colder in Greenland than they were in Iceland and Norway. The question which still remains, was why the settlements were abandoned. It is known that after 1300 A.D. The climate became much colder and they settlers could not apapt.

When I see derogatory remarks made about our host, Dr. Masters, it is upsetting in the fact that it is now no longer a lack of civility which prevails, but total lack of respect for anyone's opinions. This is directed to both sides of the argument. If they disagree that much, let them start their own blog. If I ever want to clarify something, I normally e-mail the person as not to cause embarrassment or create another argument. I have never berated anyone on this blog or resorted to name-calling. I would expect others to behave the same, but obviously that is behavior for which many on this blog are incapabable.

I fully agree, Grothar. Too many people post on this blog spewing gibberish and trying to act like they know everything, and generally refuse to be civil and respectful. Like you, I make a point not to sink to their level, and try my best to be open-minded, civil, and respectful.

So far, what I have done is added quite a few people to my "list of un-awesome" (including one person whose blog I used to follow regularly), and I routinely report posts by people who are being childish or generally not being civil. It is a shame that the blog has degenerated to petty name calling and senseless distortion of facts (on BOTH sides). I wish there was a way admin could really fix the issue, but to fix it, they either cross the line into censorship, or strongly limit participation in the blog.
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Re-Post from previous blog:

369. Grothar 2:58 PM GMT on February 15, 2010

Most of you know me on the blog. I have never got into the argument of AGW either pro or con. Therefore, I would find it difficult to believe anyone could know my full position on subject. However, I noticed a comment this morning in which my name was mentioned. As many of you know, I was born in the U.S. of American Parents. In the U.S. since the 1800's. I was educated in Europe, residing mostly in the Scandinavian countries and Germany, but many other countries as well (including Greenland).

There reference this morning was to my "denial" of conditions in Greenland when the early Viking settlers lived there. If some of you may not realize, the schools in the Scandinavia countries often teach the Old Norse languages and we must read the full history of our countries,even to the point of learning the old runic alpabet. I am quite well aware of the large Viking settlements which were in Greenland from approximately 800-1200 A.D. The climate was much warmer than it is today, especially along the southwestern coast. There was farming, grazing, cattle raising and abundant forests along the coastal area. The settlements may have supported population well over 10,000 inhabitans. I have visited many of the sites of the old villages.

The clarification I attempeted to make to one of the bloggers a while back, was that the ice sheets were still relatively the same at that time as they are today. The entire island of Greenland was not a lush paradise. Even at that time, the winters were much colder in Greenland than they were in Iceland and Norway. The question which still remains, was why the settlements were abandoned. It is known that after 1300 A.D. The climate became much colder and they settlers could not apapt.

When I see derogatory remarks made about our host, Dr. Masters, it is upsetting in the fact that it is now no longer a lack of civility which prevails, but total lack of respect for anyone's opinions. This is directed to both sides of the argument. If they disagree that much, let them start their own blog. If I ever want to clarify something, I normally e-mail the person as not to cause embarrassment or create another argument. I have never berated anyone on this blog or resorted to name-calling. I would expect others to behave the same, but obviously that is behavior for which many on this blog are incapabable.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
No major snowstorms in sight
Today's snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic has shifted northwards, meaning the that the maximum 4 - 8 inches of snow from this storm will pass north of snow-weary Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Baltimore. The computer models are showing that this will be the last significant snow storm to affect the eastern half of the U.S. for at least a week, and residents of the Mid-Atlantic can look forward to a slow but steady melting of their huge piles of snow. This is exactly what is needed to avoid a serious flooding situation--a rapid thaw or large rainstorm would have been a major problem.


And for this we give thanks...!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Good Morning, Lake Erie is frozen over.

Link
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Thanks Doc!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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