Winter Olympics forecast: near-record warmth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on February 15, 2010

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Under sunny skies and warm southwest winds the temperature in Vancouver, British Columbia climbed to 54°F (12.4°C) yesterday, just missing the record of 12.9°C (55°F) for the date, set in 1991 (records in Vancouver go back to 1937). That was marvelous weather for all the joggers that were out in t-shirts and shorts in Vancouver yesterday, but is lousy weather if you're trying to hold a Winter Olympics. The men's downhill was postponed yesterday and rescheduled for today, because of rain and bad snow. The women's combined, originally scheduled to run Saturday, has been postponed until Thursday. The mountain has been getting snow at the top, a mix of snow and rain along the middle section, and rain at the bottom, making for very difficult skiing conditions. Practice runs have been mostly been canceled. In West Vancouver, where the moguls competition was held yesterday, snow had to be trucked and helicoptered in because there wasn't enough on the ground. The snow-making machines weren't any help, because it was too warm to make snow. Too bad Philadelphia or Washington D.C. didn't make a bid for the Winter Olympics! It's an upside-down winter when Canada has trouble getting snow, and Washington D.C. gets five feet.

As we can see from a plot of the temperature departure from average for the month of January (Figure 1), most of Canada has seen very unusual warmth, with temperatures over 5°C (9°F) covering large swathes of the country.


Figure 1. Departure of January temperature from average for the strong to moderate strength El Niño year of 2010 (left), and a composite of the last five years that had a moderate to strong El Niño (right). Note that typically, an El Niño event brings much warmer than average temperatures to Vancouver, and cooler than average conditions to Florida. This year has seen an extreme amplification of this pattern. The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is evident over eastern Canada and Greenland, where exceptionally warm temperatures were recorded. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Why all the warmth in Vancouver? El Niño partly to blame
So, what's going on? The average high temperature in Vancouver this time of year is typically 8°C (46°F). Vancouver has seen above-average temperatures every day this month, and tied one daily record so far. This unusual February warmth follows a record warm month of January, which averaged 3°C (5.4°F) above average, beating the previous record set in 2006 by a pretty significant margin, 0.9°C (1.6°F). Nearby Seattle, Washington had its warmest January in 120 years of record keeping, and both Oregon and Washington recorded their 4th warmest January. As we can see from a plot of the temperature departure from average for the month of January (Figure 1), most of Canada saw very unusual warmth, with temperature anomalies over 5°C (9°F) covering large swathes of the country. Record warm January temperatures were observed not only over British Columbia, but also over Manitoba and over much of Quebec, where half of the province's twelve largest cities experienced their warmest or second warmest January on record. Unusual Canadian warmth is to be expected during a moderate to strong El Niño episode, which is what we've had this winter in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The pattern we've seen during the previous five moderate to strong El Niños dating back to 1987 (Figure 1, right) shows this trend, and also the trend towards colder than average conditions in Florida. However, the pattern for January 2010 shows an extreme amplification of this El Niño pattern. We had record warmth over much of Canada, and Florida got socked with its 10th coldest January on record. The extreme amplification of the January temperature pattern was due in part to the influence of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, a natural wind pattern over the North Atlantic measured by the difference in pressure between Iceland and ocean areas to the south. That difference in pressure was remarkably small in the first half of January, leading to the weakest Arctic Oscillation pattern in 60 years of record keeping. This allowed cold air to spill southwards into Florida, and helped bring very warm temperatures to Greenland and Eastern Canada. El Niño, combined with the Arctic Oscillation, all superimposed upon exceptionally warm global temperatures, is probably the best explanation for the record January warmth in Canada. Globally, January 2010 was the 4th warmest January on record, with global ocean temperatures the 2nd warmest on record, according to NOAA.

The forecast: near-record warmth for Vancouver
The forecast for Vancouver for the remainder of the week calls for temperatures above 10°C (50°F) each day. Today's forecast high of 10°C (50°F) will approach the record high for the date of 12.6°C (55°F). The long range forecast through the remainder of the Winter Olympics promises continued near-record warmth, as the jet stream is projected to stay in its current El Niño-type pattern. In this configuration, a strong ridge of high pressure stays anchored over the Pacific coast, allowing plenty of warm air from the southwest into British Columbia. Unfortunately for the winter games, I expect that Vancouver will end up experiencing its 1st or 2nd warmest February on record.

No major snowstorms in sight
Today's snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic has shifted northwards, meaning the that the maximum 4 - 8 inches of snow from this storm will pass north of snow-weary Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Baltimore. The computer models are showing that this will be the last significant snow storm to affect the eastern half of the U.S. for at least a week, and residents of the Mid-Atlantic can look forward to a slow but steady melting of their huge piles of snow. This is exactly what is needed to avoid a serious flooding situation--a rapid thaw or large rainstorm would have been a major problem.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest. I did an interview with the Washington Post weather blog by the "Capital Weather Gang", for those interested.

Jeff Masters

2010 Winter Olympic Torch Relay (galeao)
The Olympic Torch Relay departing Mackin Park in Coquitlam, BC. Crowds lined the streets and braved the Vancouver rain to cheer on the torchbearers as they continued on to the city of Burnaby. Just one more day before the Olympic Cauldron will be lit in Vancouver on February 12, 2010.
2010 Winter Olympic Torch Relay
Ballet Of Light (galeao)
The 'Ballet Of Light', formally known as artist Rafael Lozano-Hemmer's art project Vectorial Elevation, consists of 20 robotically controlled, 10,000-watt Zenon lights that have been installed at Vanier Park and Sunset Beach in Vancouver. Beginning on February 5, they will be lighting the sky over English Bay every night until dawn, right up to the last day of the 2010 Winter Olympics on February 28. The pattern of the lights changes every 10 seconds in response to geometric designs submitted from the public via the Internet. It is quite a sight but works best with low clouds like this evening. View with the Inukshuk at the southern end of English Bay Beach.
Ballet Of Light

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Quoting Tazmanian:
when dos the midwest start geting in too there severe weather season are they this now geting in too it ???


Do you mean tornado season? That is in spring when the cold dry air meats up with the moist air from the Gulf as the warm fronts start pushing north.
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Quoting FFtrombi:
I think quite a lot of people are falling for an obvious troll :P

Good rule for blogs => the more you feel angry when you read a post, the less need to reply or start a discussion :)




??????????
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We have good data "Today" that shows the Sun affects global climates on Earth and other planets.

We dont have accurate data to know what it was like 10 years ago 50 years ago 100 years ago. Further back in time you go.. the less accurate the data or info now (back then) was.

We cant say the Earth is Warmer now then 100 years ago.

We cant say if there is any affect by Humans more than 1%

Only thing we can say is that the Suns activitys does have a affect. We cant say how much affect % wise is does have though.

Thats all Im trying to point out.
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The last of the dominoes are falling. It's all over now but the whining...

http://tinyurl.com/yb2loyt
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Just curious, has anyone read this item? L8R, back to work :(

http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/beenstock/Nature_Paper091209.pdf

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i no i no whats move the Winter Olympics too Washington D.C.
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I think quite a lot of people are falling for an obvious troll :P

Good rule for blogs => the more you feel angry when you read a post, the less need to reply or start a discussion :)
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when dos the midwest start geting in too there severe weather season are they this now geting in too it ???
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scottsv....

by you OWN admission (post #62) you say that the earth is warming (because of the sun). like many others have pointed out, you contradicted yourself quite badly.

and if you think dr masters is a "wackjob" or whatever insult you can come up with, then DONT visit the site. you are certainly free to think what you want, but you are not free to come here, insult us and dr masters and not have to suffer the consequences. im not adding you to my ignore list yet, but i certainly flagged your posts when you used insults.
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HurricaneHunterGal, here is the sun part (RF Radiative forcing) explained
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/the-co2-problem-in-6-easy-steps/
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CST MON FEB 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH EWD/ENEWD INTO CENTRAL PA
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 151841Z - 152345Z

SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CENTERED ON AN AREA FROM W CENTRAL OH
EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PA
MOUNTAINS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY INCREASING WSW-ENE BAND OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...PARALLEL TO BUT N OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW TRACK AS REVEALED BY LATEST WV IMAGERY. TWO-HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM RESIDES ACROSS THIS AREA IMPLYING AN
AREA OF CONCENTRATED ASCENT...AND CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVED INCREASE
IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO INTO NRN WV/SWRN PA.

EXPECT THIS SNOW BAND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING ON THE WRN FRINGE WHILE EXPANDING EWD WITH
TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BAND
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY NARROW FROM N-S -- I.E. ON
THE ORDER OF 60 TO 80 MILES...REMAINING LIMITED AREALLY ON THE S END
BY THE EWD-SHIFTING DRY SLOT AND ON THE N END BY APPARENT SUBSIDENCE
EVIDENT IN RADAR TRENDS.

..GOSS.. 02/15/2010
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Quoting scottsvb:
This board has become a bunch a delousional Global Warming freaks. I guess the avg shmuck has been replying.

No need to name call. There are plenty of people who have not argues for or against GW on this blog, including myself. I have done quite a bit of research on it, but I still have not stuck my neck out into the topic on this blog for many reasons. If you dont like the blog (or it's contributors) then leave. There is NO need for name calling.
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66 - AIM, initially I did have an issue that was two fold. First, you are suppose to install these at the lowest point in the system. I could not and experienced some element damage from back flow. That was cured with an anti-back flow device. Secondly, the control boards on the 3 separate heating elements had a resistor that was not up to par and failed after about 6 months. I initially replace the resistor with a much better one and it has worked flawlessly since (nearly 3 years). BTW, EEmax was extremely good on the customer service side. They sent me replacement parts free of charge and I still have those in stock if I need them. Including the control boards with on-board transformers instead of the resistors. I hope that helps :)
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Quoting scottsvb:
This is why I hardly post on this forum. Masters has really become a Wack Job @ Global Warming BS. Anyone can post up bad graphics and false scares. These blogs has turned 50% into Climatology BS! Most Mets know the Earth's Climate goes thru cycle as does other planets and its mostly affect by the Sun!

Are we warming..Are we cooling? We have NO REAL DATA to say otherwise. You Dont Use The Past 100 Years "CAUSE DATA EVEN 10 YEARS AGO WASNT AS GOOD AS TODAYS..AND TO GO BACK 100 YEARS AGO THE DATA WAS PROBABLY 99% WRONG"

Listen..have we been warming over the past decade or 2 compared the the PREVIOUS decades in the 70s-mid 80s. Yes.. but it was the SUN solar cycles that does it. There is ALOT of evidence that we are back to a cooling period cause of the SUN solar cyles.

Finally Masters, this is your blog and can say what you want.. but your fan base is based on Meteorology not Climatology. Your no different than a LA Actor speaking their stupid opinion on politics.. We Dont Want To Hear About It (Climatology).


Annnnd another to add to the ignore list.
If you don't like Dr. Master's blog then *gasp* DONT READ IT! How can you say that all data is unreliable and then go to talk about the Sun (like #67: eyesontheweather jsut said)? And you can't contribute the entire planet's warming/cooling cycles to JUST the Sun. It very well be the main cause (who knows!), but don't trash others just because you think they are wrong. Especially Dr. M. He has a lot of background/knowledge in meteorology AND climate change.
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But I can spell!

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting scottsvb:
This is why I hardly post on this forum. Masters has really become a Wack Job @ Global Warming BS. Anyone can post up bad graphics and false scares. These blogs has turned 50% into Climatology BS! Most Mets know the Earth's Climate goes thru cycle as does other planets and its mostly affect by the Sun!

Are we warming..Are we cooling? We have NO REAL DATA to say otherwise. You Dont Use The Past 100 Years "CAUSE DATA EVEN 10 YEARS AGO WASNT AS GOOD AS TODAYS..AND TO GO BACK 100 YEARS AGO THE DATA WAS PROBABLY 99% WRONG"

Listen..have we been warming over the past decade or 2 compared the the PREVIOUS decades in the 70s-mid 80s. Yes.. but it was the SUN solar cycles that does it. There is ALOT of evidence that we are back to a cooling period cause of the SUN solar cyles.

Finally Masters, this is your blog and can say what you want.. but your fan base is based on Meteorology not Climatology. Your no different than a LA Actor speaking their stupid opinion on politics.. We Dont Want To Hear About It (Climatology).
WOW, #1, You don't have the capability to say you agree to disagree in a more polite method.
#2 you contradict yourself in paragraph 2 and 3. You can't have it both ways. Saying there is not enough evidence for the argument in para 2 then saying that there is evidence of the sun argument in para 3.
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Uh, Oss, IF you're still around, would you mind telling me if you've had any trouble with your tankless water heater?

Back in '05, post-Rita, I was in a hotel where they just didn't work...we got too many cold showers (though in the heat sometimes it wasn't too bad.)
They replaced them with regular hot-water heaters.
Disappointing and expensive, I'm sure.

So it would be great if they've been improved, if your model works!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting scottsvb:


Yet here you go and insist on putting your own useless two cents worth in. Didn't know you took a poll on the fan base. Must have missed that one. Wack job, huh? The door is that way if you don't like his posts.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Well there goes my lunch.


I heard that. I wish I had the new Firefox Nad block plus loaded :)
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Please elaborate more.


NO, NO, please don't, TMI (too much information) -- pass the brain and eye bleach!

Dr.OOC, did you read post #52? (ADD, whoops, I think Atmo's dry sense of humor went over my head for a second.)

#62 -- WHAT? I can't hear you when you're name-calling our Blog host, or anyone else.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting atmoaggie:
There goes our respectful and mature conversation...

(this comment is not about post 52...)

Please elaborate more.
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I think another reason for going off the grid is to be self-sufficient. It seems many people want the system to bring them a net profit, but the self-sufficiency it would afford you is worth more than any amount of money. No one likes to be dependent on someone else. It's denigrating and brings shame. The immeasurable sense of supporting yourself pays in dividends.

I think the greatest danger we have with energy is what will happen if it's true that we're hitting peak oil. If it's true then the cost can only go up. What makes it worse is that some of the most backwards countries in the world are the ones banking on oil profits. They have us over the barrel. They possess us.

And... there're many people using solar power and making a profit. But not everyone will, depending on where they live and what the policy is in their nation state.

Anyway, what i'd like to see is a self-sufficiency revolution, as opposed to a profit-driven revolution. First of all, we can't put nuclear power plants or coal power plants in our backyard, but we CAN setup a solar panel just about anywhere. That is freedom. That is mobility. That is empowerment. It's self-affirming. Any kind of centralized power system, no matter how efficient or profitable, will not have the same impact on peoples lives. It cannot imbue us with the spirit of independence.
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There goes our respectful and mature conversation...

(this comment is not about post 52...)
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Question to all! If ones research is flawed to serve a purpose and knowingly flawed to do so. To think that the data would come up lost because of terrible record keeping, would be very easy way out.

Did his research show no Global Warming since 1995 before or was it just released convenently so now. I have not read enough to know the facts about his research yet!

Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995


RoseGate becomes DailyMailGate: Error-riddled articles and false statements destroy Daily Mail’s credibilty
Two top climate scientists and the NSIDC accuse Daily Mail of misquoting and misrepresenting them or their work.


February 15, 2010

Readers should assume that everything they see in the Daily Mail is untrue and unverified. Scientists should refuse to grant interviews to the paper without a third-party present or an agreement to allow a review of any quotes used.

One of the British newspapers leading the charge to undermine the credibility of climate science has had its own credibility rocked. Two leading scientists, Murari Lal and Mojib Latif, have accused the Daily Mail of misquoting and misrepresenting them. And the National Snow and Ice Data Center has accused the paper of printing “nonsense” and of “very lazy journalism.”

Lending further credibility to the scientists’ charges are a pattern of false and misleading statements in the paper (and by DM reporter David Rose in comments on this very blog).

The latest self-inflicted body blow to the Daily Mail is this outrageously false headline (and subhed) echoing through the right-wing blogosphere:

Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995

… There has been no global warming since 1995

Not. Here’s the BBC interview with Phil Jones that DM is twisting:

BBC: Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming.

Jones: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

Jones ain’t great at answering questions, something I’ll return to in a later post. For instance, he should point out the recent Met Office reanalysis of their data (see Finally, the truth about the Hadley/CRU data: “The global temperature rise calculated by the Met Office’s HadCRUT record is at the lower end of likely warming”).

Even so, no scientist should have to put up with that kind of gross misrepresentation. And no, the fact that the story itself is (a tad) better on this one point does not excuse the headlines, which is as far as many people read.

Sadly, pushing disinformation has become standard operating procedure for the paper.

DailyMailGate (aka RoseGate) began with two articles that had unjustifiably sensational headlines in early January, “The mini ice age starts here” by David Rose and “Could we be in for 30 years of global COOLING? By [unnamed] Daily Mail Reporter.” Both were based on misrepresenting Latif and NSIDC’s work, as I showed here. Latif went to the UK’s Guardian with his strong charges of misrepresentation against the DM, and they ran this piece:

Read Full Article
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/15/rosegate-dailymail-error-riddled-articles-misquote-credibilit y-science/
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Question to all! If ones research is flawed to serve a purpose and knowingly flawed to do so. To think that the data would come up lost because of terrible record keeping, would be very easy way out.

Did his research show no Global Warming since 1995 before or was it just released convenently so now. I have not read enough to know the facts about his research yet!

Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995
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Quoting Skyepony:
I've found the 1st step to getting off the grid is energy efficiency. Which has been tough in a crappy '80s build frame house. New appliances, caulk every 3-5 years & after big wind events, new ducts, careful tree placement, even adding a 4' trellis to the south side to block the summer sun from the slab (down in FL)~ all add up. Shock after the recent dreaded heating bill after running heat a month..new AC saved us at least $300 that month...total $104 Do the solar water heater next, way cheaper than the panels (most are like $2500) & they cut your power use roughly 1/4. By cutting the amount of electricity you use 1st you can buy less panels &/or windmills in the end, making the whole process cheaper.

Very good points and currently have involved various technologies for my region and have a very efficiant energy consumption. I also make sure trips in auto are combined to accomplish many things in one trip vs several trips. Your point is well taken and sincerely hope that all individuals want to accomplish same. Beyond that though I would like to see something (alternative fuel) used in this country that does not involve huge importation of fuels and huge exportation of money. Again, I appreciate your input Skyponey
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Quoting indianrivguy:


you exposed your nutsack in your avatar on a family rated website and this surprises you?

Interesting read Skye, thanks!
Lmao
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Quoting Skyepony:
I've found the 1st step to getting off the grid is energy efficiency. Which has been tough in a crappy '80s build frame house. New appliances, caulk every 3-5 years & after big wind events, new ducts, careful tree placement, even adding a 4' trellis to the south side to block the summer sun from the slab (down in FL)~ all add up. Shock after the recent dreaded heating bill after running heat a month..new AC saved us at least $300 that month...total $104 Do the solar water heater next, way cheaper than the panels (most are like $2500) & they cut your power use roughly 1/4. By cutting the amount of electricity you use 1st you can buy less panels &/or windmills in the end, making the whole process cheaper.



Good post. After I retired from the Air Force, and we settled down and bought a house, the first thing I did was replace the entire HVAC system. My house was built in 1974, and the system was that old. We replaced it with a very energy efficient system, which cost more, and immediately realized a $150 reduction in our electric bill. Amazing. Since then, I have had all the insulation replaced, installed much better windows, and most likely this summer will embark on an experiment. We have a new (3 years old now) roof. They installed the typical dark singles, as there were no (at the time) light colored singles available. So, I am going to have a white elastomeric coating put on the roof. I am also considering some coating for the side walls to reflect even more solar energy. I will be documenting both energy cost reductions (hopefully) and using logging temp. sensors to see if there really is a difference. If so, I plan to write a paper on this. You are right in that even the smallest effort will be rewarded. Thanks for sharing your efforts. Take care.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
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Quoting indianrivguy:


you exposed your nutsack in your avatar on a family rated website and this surprises you?

Interesting read Skye, thanks!


Well there goes my lunch.
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Quoting Eagle101:
This is quite scary, really. Entire nations have (or will attempt to) put in place policies which will cost nations, corporations, and individuals (who will most likely be the most hurt by such policies) a great deal of both currency and resources, even at a time when the world’s economy as a whole is in serious trouble.
This is not corrrect. And please provide your source about your policies you mentioned. Cooperations, Nations and the Public want basicly clean energy and many a tax on Co2. Further this will create the jobs and economy for the coming decades.

I repost this from last blog.

Global Warming Skeptics Lambaste Plan to Increase Funding for Climate Change Research
What, exactly, will the American taxpayer get for its global warming research dollars? The EPA is spending $43 million to implement the greenhouse-gas reporting rule, to perform regulatory work for the largest stationary sources of greenhouse gases, and to develop new standards for cars and trucks.

Research being funded at the National Science Foundation seeks to promote "discoveries needed to inspire societal actions leading to environmental and economic sustainability," according to an agency statement. The NSF's portfolio for global warming will reach $766 million.

a fact sheet from the White House Office of Management and Budget portrays the global warming funding as part of the Obama administration's new jobs-creation policy, which aims at making the U.S. "the world leader in developing the clean energy technologies that will lead to the industries and jobs of tomorrow."
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/11/obama-spending-increase-global-warming-research/


Saudi Arabia to Replace Oil with Sun Power for Desalination Plants

Much of this may be changing, however, as Saudi Arabia is now interested in using solar energy to provide the power needed, instead of oil. According to an article on the UAE Top News media site, the Kingdom is now planning to build solar energy based desalination plants in order to save on energy costs, as well as be in tune with new environmental polices. This might be to secure membership in the International Renewable Energy Agency, otherwise known as IRENA.

Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Al Assaf said “desalination is our strategic choice to supply an adequate supply of drinking water to people across the Kingdom.”

He added that by using solar energy instead of oil, it will focus more on using renewable energy and even become an exporter of this clean form of energy as it has been doing with oil.

In addition to desalination, solar energy will also be supplying energy to a country which has been historically known as being a world supplier of oil, especially to countries like the US. Solar energy will eventually enable to Saudis to not only have a renewable energy source to supply their own energy needs but will significantly reduce the cost of fresh water, as well as being able to export renewable energy, as well as oil.
http://www.greenprophet.com/2010/02/01/16722/saudi-arabia-desalination-solar/


Oil Industry Ready to Work on Global Warming

“President Obama comes to office with a strong commitment to tackle climate change,” said Tony Hayward, the chief executive of BP. “Suddenly the challenges many of us have been wrestling with for a long time — the importance of energy security in providing economic security, and tackling the issue of climate change in a way that is commercially viable — are center stage.”

Exxon Mobil, which had long been skeptical of global warming, offered its own suggestions. One of the company’s top executives, Michael J. Dolan, said that Exxon would back a tax on carbon, while criticizing a so-called cap-and-trade approach.

Mr. Dolan, a senior vice president at Exxon, said that a carbon tax would be simpler and less subject to manipulation than a trading system. “A carbon tax reduces policy risks for businesses and investors in a way that cap-and-trade schemes do not,” Mr. Dolan said during his address at the industry conference, organized by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting firm.

“In addition,” he said, “by reducing other taxes — such as income or excise taxes — we can make a carbon tax revenue-neutral and offset the impact of higher taxes on the economy.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/science/earth/12oil.html?_r=1&ref=business


China’s renewable energy views
The price of solar energy & wind turbines is falling all over the world. There was an article recently in the New York Times which showed the role of China in all of this. The main point is that China is a world leader when it comes to the manufacture of solar panels & wind turbines. This is why it can easily achieve economies of scale and is also able to offer products at a low market price.

There are 2 consquences of this:

1. The installation of renewable sources of energy will become cheaper.
2. Competitors manufacturing in different countries around the world have problems in competing with the Chinese manufacturers.

How did China reach this position? The articles in the New Your Times said the following:

“The biggest advantage that China has over all other countries in the world is that their demand for electricity is consistently rising by 15% every year. In U.S., power companies usually have to choose between purchasing equipment for renewable energy or to continue using their fossil fuel powered plants which are already built. In China, these companies need to buy lots of equipment and the alternative sources of energy like nuclear & wind are priced very competitively.” Or, in the U.S. and in Europe, various renewable energies are having to compete with the existing power supply whereas in China they do not have to. There is more than enough space for the rapid expansion of renewable energy as well as for coal power plants. The unlimited demand needes the expansion to be across the board. Another reason for the low price is the low cost of labor in China.
http://www.biofuelswatch.com/china-renewable-energy-views/

Microsoft co-founder Gates tackling climate change

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h_iNFAG254im4XHNHGNRIpKj6bLA

Rep. Israel pines for 'space race' enthusiasm in clean energy debate
http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/78927-rep-israel-pines-for-space-race-enthusiasm-i n-clean-energy-debate


Denmark to test wind powered cars in smart grid experiment
Cars could fill gaps in Denmark’s renewable energy supply if an experiment is successful. In a new vehicle-to-grid (V2G) experiment, Denmark will use batteries contained within electric cars to store excess wind power that will be fed back into the power grid when the wind isn’t blowing.

To be conducted on the island of Bornholm, parked electric cars will store excess energy that is generated when the wind is blowing particularly hard. When the wind isn’t blowing, the cars will feed electricity back into the power grid.

The venture-backed firm, launched in 2007 and based in Palo Alto, Calif., aims to create networks of electric cars worldwide. Deals have been announced in other densely packed "transportation islands," as Agassi calls them, in Denmark, Australia, San Francisco, Hawaii, the west coast of Canada, along with a small taxi scheme in Japan.
http://www.smartmeters.com/the-news/560-denmark-to-test-wind-powered-cars-in-smart-grid-experiment. html

San Francisco Joins "Better Place" Electric Car Project
http://solveclimate.com/blog/20081121/san-francisco-joins-better-place-electric-car-project

Better Place Takes Big Leap Forward with Israel Electric-Car Pilot

"Israel is detaching itself from oil," said Shai Agassi (photo), the 41-year-old, Israeli-born founder of the company. The government "really wants this to happen," he said. "It is a national project."

Even if the cars run off coal, "the emissions impact is the difference between a full glass of water on oil and a drop of water on battery," said Shai Agassi. Citing a study by the Israel Electric Corporation, the Better Place head said the nation could switch all of its cars to electric without requiring any new generation.

The reason is the company's so-called "smart batteries." The giant, 550-pound power packs will contain "bi-directional" charging that will allow parked cars to feed power back to the grid, turning them into petite power plants.

The technology, known as vehicle to grid, or V2G, is still in its infancy. Tal Agassi said that between 2013 to 2015, when large amounts of cars are running, the company will be able to deploy it but not before. Theoretically, he said, a half a million electric vehicles could send one gigawatt of power back to the grid — equivalent to about 10 percent of Israel's electricity consumption in a single day.
http://solveclimate.com/blog/20100209/better-place-takes-big-leap-forward-israel-electric-car-pilot
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Howdy, just a passing bit on efficiency. I put in a whole house tank-less (electric) water heater and it dropped my bill by $80 bucks. A new higher efficiency AC/heat pump unit dropped it another $60 per month. 2 stage compressor and no perpetual tank of hot water pays for itself in a few years. Have a have a happy all, on my NON-day off :(

BTW, the endless hot water is great when you have kids who used to hog it all :)
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49. Skyepony (Mod)
I've found the 1st step to getting off the grid is energy efficiency. Which has been tough in a crappy '80s build frame house. New appliances, caulk every 3-5 years & after big wind events, new ducts, careful tree placement, even adding a 4' trellis to the south side to block the summer sun from the slab (down in FL)~ all add up. Shock after the recent dreaded heating bill after running heat a month..new AC saved us at least $300 that month...total $104 Do the solar water heater next, way cheaper than the panels (most are like $2500) & they cut your power use roughly 1/4. By cutting the amount of electricity you use 1st you can buy less panels &/or windmills in the end, making the whole process cheaper.

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Quoting Eagle101:


Greetings Skyepony;

I am surprised you have to ask what is so shocking. We, or maybe I should say I, would expect more from a scientist in a position as important as his was. I, for one, document and archive everything I touch. I always follow a logical path, and make sure another professional could retrieve my work, and arrive at the same conclusion, every time. Sloppy work, and even worse, sloppy science and engineering, lead to doubt, and sometimes to preventable tragedies. Being a scientist or engineer brings with it the responsibility to accurately document nearly everything we do. Otherwise, what would be the point? Hope this clears up any questions you may have. Take care and have a great day.

Very Respectfully,

Jon

I have worked with some exceptional minds in science, but I must say, the persona that makes up a good researcher sometimes includes horrible organizational skills...not a strong suit of mine own, either.

As the defacto IT guy, I have more than once been asked if I know where data, papers, programs, etc. might be in areas of hard drive partitions not accessed in the previous couple of years.

I will agree, though. In the research world, full documentation is a little less critical in the short term, than, say, a civil engineering firm designing a bridge being built next year, though. If Jones is really as poor at organization and documentation as it seems, one would think we could have had some assistant responsible for it. But, again, it simply hasn't got the near-term, potentially tragic, results as many other fields.
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
I also agree with this post as I too have sought out alternatives to "get off the grid". And as you state, the costs are quite high. My reasons for wanting to "get off the grid" are to be self sufficiant, not dependant upon gov't control, thereby reducing the need for importation and deficiet reduction, the lowering of polution etc. It seems that Gov't is always talking big about such things but in the end only throws a band aid onto the current applications. It appears that a lot of money is fed into our gov't through the status quo of our current system and they are reluctant to let go or downsize the cash cow. What concerns me is that in large part the world does not know what the reserves are for fossil fuels. How many generations will pass until a new source will be mandatory to live. What is going to become the norm for energy for my children, or my grandchildren. It has been said that the country that leads in the use of renewable fuels would be a leader in the world. Even if you take the GW out of the argument, it would seem to me that a more stable market place would be established, thousands of new jobs would be instigated and the high demand on oil was largley declined there would be less demand for protection in the oil rich regions. Non of this is scientific, just a thought process attempting to use some common sense towards the future.


Greetings again Energy,

Well made points. I agree with your conclusions. We must take action, otherwise, I fear, we will all be in for big shock. You and I both know the answers are here, and ready to use now. But the cost is just too much for most of us to bear on an individual basis. You are defiantly right on the lobbyist…they have far too much power. As long as the few rule, the many will suffer. Why on earth would these “few” take a risk on losing billions (the aforementioned oil ‘cash cow’) for technology they know no one can afford on a large scale. Since the late ‘70’s, I have watched the government “invest” in developing energy alternatives, only to watch interest and dollars dry up after the politicians have gotten their “moment in the sun” (read: re-elected). Literally, billions and billions down the drain. Quite sad really. On another sad note, after one year, I can honestly say it appears “CHANGE” really just means more of the same…if you have the lobbyist, “we” have the time…

Very Respectfully,

Jon
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Just saw video (on TWC -- blush) of 40-car pile-up on I-70 bridge near Kansas City; cars on top of cars, but no one went over the bridge. I think they must be making cars safer, and that's my positive thought for the day.

**********

On the not so positive -- wu-mail is another avenue for bullying, and not so very anonymous, either. As I've been personally affected, the sad part for me is that I feel I have no recourse, other than ignoring and blocking. I'm not an innocent because I didn't ignore, over-apologized and over-explained, and got defensive.

I hang on to the thing I can feel good about -- I am not the one who resorted to vile name-calling.

I do suggest everyone read up on cyber-bullying and cyber-stalking.

ADD-ON: Thanks to all for civil discussion today. I haven't had to scroll past anyone...

- Edie
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Eagle101:


Great points Floodman. For myself, I will not post something here I would not say to someone face-to-face. I am also not affraid to use my real name when signing my posts. I think that also goes along way to imparting sincerity.

Hydrus: Not sure familure with your fathers medical problems, but glad to hear he is doing ok. My families thoughts and prayers are with you and yours.
I respect people who are honest and direct. It reduces the prolixity of the posts and focuses on the important stuff. My Father had prostate removed. He was in serious shape for sometime. He doing better now.Thanks for prayers,those are always welcome here.:)
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44. Skyepony (Mod)
Eagle~ Jones is human, we aren't all neat & organized. He's not even a scientist representing my country's research. Last I checked almost all the IPCC predictions are beginning to come to pass sooner or more than expected...including the amount of greenhouses gases we would put out in the short time since the report. Somehow his messy office or even possible lost data doesn't change that.

& it's nice to actually discuss this with someone instead of discussing how we should discuss it..Thanks for bringing the article..
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Quoting Eagle101:


Greetings Energy;

I have come very close, during the last three years, to installing a whole-house Solar System, to include water heating. My incentive was three-fold: Reduce my families dependance on the grid; recieve a tax credit from the Feds, and my state (Florida) has an additional off-set, not to mention that estimated 25 year system pay-off (which just happens to coincide with the estimated 25 year life span of the cells!) Quite frankly, I am glad at this point that I did not. It seem's that many more here in Florida made the leap, only to find out that Florida's funds for reimbursement do not even come close to funding those who took risk, using there own funds. There are now literally thousands (you read that right) who are waiting on refunds. So, based on Florida's poor planning, many who were once considering this move now have zero incentive to proceed. Truly a shame. Take care, and have a great day.

I have not given up, and will continue to check system costs. There still may be solar in our future...I hope!

Very Respectfully,

Jon
I also agree with this post as I too have sought out alternatives to "get off the grid". And as you state, the costs are quite high. My reasons for wanting to "get off the grid" are to be self sufficiant, not dependant upon gov't control, thereby reducing the need for importation and deficiet reduction, the lowering of polution etc. It seems that Gov't is always talking big about such things but in the end only throws a band aid onto the current applications. It appears that a lot of money is fed into our gov't through the status quo of our current system and they are reluctant to let go or downsize the cash cow. What concerns me is that in large part the world does not know what the reserves are for fossil fuels. How many generations will pass until a new source will be mandatory to live. What is going to become the norm for energy for my children, or my grandchildren. It has been said that the country that leads in the use of renewable fuels would be a leader in the world. Even if you take the GW out of the argument, it would seem to me that a more stable market place would be established, thousands of new jobs would be instigated and the high demand on oil was largley declined there would be less demand for protection in the oil rich regions. Non of this is scientific, just a thought process attempting to use some common sense towards the future.
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Quoting Floodman:


The issue here is the mental and probably calendar age of thiose involved; add to that the general anonymity of the format and people tend to say things they wouldn't have the guts to say to your face...it's one of the strengths of the format, but also one of the weknesses and people tend to break the conventions because no one knows who they are...

I'm so glad to hear about your dad; hopefully he'll get through all the post-op happiness and be fine!
LOL, Reminds of some of the kids I went to school with. When there friends were around , they were big shots and would bully other students. But as soon as you corner them in a hallway all alone they become Wimps.
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41. Skyepony (Mod)
Eagle the other thing that bothers me about that article is the implication that the hockey stick graph is wrong because of Jones' office keeping skills.. Jones didn't create the hockey stick graph.. Mann did. Also...

The board of inquiry at Pennsylvania State University said it found no evidence that Michael Mann, a leading climatologist, had suppressed or falsified data, tried to destroy data or emails, or misused information. It will convene a second panel to investigate whether he had violated academic practices, including those governing exchanges between scholars. (as of Feb 3, 2010)

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Quoting Skyepony:
Eagle 101~ what is so shocking here? That his office was disorganized? He states AGW is happening. It's a confusing article, every 3rd sentence is what the sceptics think, he may have lost papers. A coworker says he has a messy desk..



Greetings Skyepony;

I am surprised you have to ask what is so shocking. We, or maybe I should say I, would expect more from a scientist in a position as important as his was. I, for one, document and archive everything I touch. I always follow a logical path, and make sure another professional could retrieve my work, and arrive at the same conclusion, every time. Sloppy work, and even worse, sloppy science and engineering, lead to doubt, and sometimes to preventable tragedies. Being a scientist or engineer brings with it the responsibility to accurately document nearly everything we do. Otherwise, what would be the point? Hope this clears up any questions you may have. Take care and have a great day.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
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39. RMCF
Quoting morningmisty:
Good Morning, Lake Erie is frozen over.

Link

That does not sound good for the other water ways and rivers up there that are going to have a record snow melt coming.
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Quoting Floodman:


The issue here is the mental and probably calendar age of thiose involved; add to that the general anonymity of the format and people tend to say things they wouldn't have the guts to say to your face...it's one of the strengths of the format, but also one of the weknesses and people tend to break the conventions because no one knows who they are...

I'm so glad to hear about your dad; hopefully he'll get through all the post-op happiness and be fine!


Great points Floodman. For myself, I will not post something here I would not say to someone face-to-face. I am also not affraid to use my real name when signing my posts. I think that also goes along way to imparting sincerity.

Hydrus: Not sure familure with your fathers medical problems, but glad to hear he is doing ok. My families thoughts and prayers are with you and yours.
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37. Skyepony (Mod)
This was amoung the "hacked" or maybe not so hacked CRU emails.


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36. Skyepony (Mod)
Eagle 101~ what is so shocking here? That his office was disorganized? He states AGW is happening. It's a confusing article, every 3rd sentence is what the sceptics think, he may have lost papers. A coworker says he has a messy desk..

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Quoting hydrus:
The science associated with climatology is very complex. Some differences in opinion are inevitable. Showing respect for others thoughts, interests, and especially Dr. Masters blog should be a no brainer. Anyone typing to much groundless bull will never be taken seriously anyway. Hope your back is good. My Dad made it through his surgery.:)


The issue here is the mental and probably calendar age of thiose involved; add to that the general anonymity of the format and people tend to say things they wouldn't have the guts to say to your face...it's one of the strengths of the format, but also one of the weknesses and people tend to break the conventions because no one knows who they are...

I'm so glad to hear about your dad; hopefully he'll get through all the post-op happiness and be fine!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.