The United States of Snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:51 PM GMT on February 13, 2010

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We live in the United States of Snow. A rare Deep South heavy snowstorm whipped across the southern tier of states yesterday, dumping six-plus inches of snow over portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Even Florida got into the act, with up to two inches recorded in the extreme northwestern Panhandle. The snowstorm left 49 of the 50 states with snow cover, according to an article by Associated Press. Hawaii was the lone hold-out. David Robinson, head of the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, said that 67.1% of the U.S. had snow cover on Friday morning, with the average depth a respectable 8 inches. Normally, the U.S. has about 40 - 50% snow coverage during the 2nd week of February. January had the 6th greatest snow cover in the 44-year record over the contiguous U.S., and December 2009 had the most snow cover of any December on record. The current pattern of record heavy snows over the the Eastern U.S. is primarily due to a natural oscillation in the Earth's climate system called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). (Some prefer to discuss this in terms of the Arctic Oscillation, which is as a close cousin of the NAO, and one can use either). I discussed the NAO's influence on winter weather in a post last month. Another contributing factor is probably the current moderate El Niño event.

An all-time record snow for Dallas
The most recent storm clobbered Dallas with 12.5" of snow, the heaviest snow on record for the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. Dallas' previous record was 7.4", set on January 15 - 16, 1964. The 15.7" of snow that has now fallen on Dallas this winter eclipses the previous record seasonal snowfall for the city--14.1" during the winter of 1977 - 1978. The snowstorm dumped over a foot of snow along a narrow region just north of Dallas and Fort Worth, with the towns of Haslet and Duncanville receiving 14.2" and 14.9", respectively.


Figure 1. Dallas' all-time record snowfall made for an un-inviting swim at this pool in nearby Flower Mound. Image credit: wunderphotographer texasdog.

A few selected snow amounts from the storm, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
HARKERS ISLAND 3.2 NE 8.8
HAVELOCK 2.7 S 8.5
BEAUFORT 7.0
NEWPORT 7.0
SEA LEVEL 7.0
OUTLAND 4 S 6.8
WINTERVILLE 3.5 W 6.4
CAPE CARTERET 6.2
BETTIE 6.0
BURGAW 6.0
JACKSONVILLE 6.0
MOREHEAD CITY 6.0
GREENVILLE 5.8

...ALABAMA...
BELLEVILLE 6.0
BRANTLEY 5.0
EVERGREEN 5 N 5.0
THOMASVILLE 5.0
EUFAULA 4 S 4.5
LOTTIE 4.5
MONROEVILLE 0.6 SSW 4.1
ARITON 4.0
PINSON 4.0
RAMER 4.0
TROY 4.0
WARD 4.0

...ARKANSAS...
FOREMAN 4.0
TEXARKANA 1 N 4.0

...FLORIDA...
BERRYDALE 2.0
MUNSON 2.0
JAY 1.0

...GEORGIA...
LUMPKIN 6.0
WASHINGTON 1.9 NE 5.8
LOGANVILLE 4 SSE 5.3
NICHOLSON 4.9 SE 4.8
ATHENS 3.2 NW 4.6
LA GRANGE 10.6 ESE 4.5
WATKINSVILLE 1.6 ENE 4.4
ROCKMART 9.6 SSE 4.3
TALBOTTON 4.0
HAMILTON 5 W 3.5
VILLA RICA 3.5
SENOIA 2 N 3.0
DACULA 2.5
CUTHBERT 2.0
MACON 2.0
ROME 2.0

...LOUISIANA...
SHREVEPORT 9.1 SE 6.1
NATCHITOCHES 0.9 NE 6.0
SHONGALOO 5 N 6.0
SICILY ISLAND 3.3 WNW 6.0
GOLDONNA 8.8 SSW 5.6
MONROE 5.0
PLAIN DEALING 3.3 ESE 5.0
HOMER 1.2 N 3.7
WEST MONROE 6.1 WSW 3.5

...MISSISSIPPI...
DE KALB 8.0
BUDE 6.5
VICKSBURG 6.3
BROOKHAVEN 6.0
NATCHEZ 6.0
PETAL 6.0
BRANDON 5.0
CATAHOULA 5.0
MADISON 5.0
BRANDON 1.9 NE 4.6
MERIDIAN 4.5
MCCALL CREEK 5 W 4.0

...OKLAHOMA...
HAWORTH 4 SW 7.5
IDABEL 8 SE 7.5

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
SUMMERVILLE 3.8 NE 8.2
COLUMBIA 7.3
BAMBERG 7.0
BOWMAN 7.0
EVANS 1 SE 7.0
LEXINGTON 1.6 WNW 7.0
OAK GROVE 1 SE 7.0
OATLAND 8 N 7.0
SMOAKS 7.0
HEMINGWAY 6.8
SANGAREE 6.5
ORANGEBURG 6.0
DARLINGTON 5.0
BLYTHE 4.0
CHARLESTON 3.3
BEAUFORT 3.0

...TEXAS...
DUNCANVILLE 1.7 NNW 14.9
HASLET 14.2
FORT WORTH 12.6
DALLAS 12.5
MANSFIELD 2.6 NNE 12.2
BRIDGEPORT 12.0
ROYSE CITY 12.0
SANGER 1.8 WSW 12.0
MESQUITE 3.3 ESE 11.4
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS 1.9 NE 11.3

As we can see from a plot of the frequency of U.S. snowstorms between 1900 - 2001 (Figure 2), heavy snow events of 6+ inches occur about once every ten years for Dallas, and between once every ten years and once every 100 years for the portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina that received 6+ inches of snow from this storm.


Figure 2. The annual average number of snowstorms with a 6 inch (15.2 cm) or greater accumulation, from the years 1901 - 2001. A value of 0.1 means an average of one 6+ inch snowstorm every ten years. Image credit: Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 8, pp. 1141-1155, DOI: 10.1175/JAM2395.1.

More heavy snowstorms occur in warmer-than-average years
I made this point in yesterday's blog post, but it's worth repeating. Another interesting result from the Changnon et al. (2006) paper of Figure 2 is the relationship between heavy snowstorms and the average winter temperature. For the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, the authors found that 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. In other words, the old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. So, there is evidence that the average climate of the U.S. over the past 100 years is colder than optimal for heavy snow events to occur. If the climate continues to warm, we should expect an increase in heavy snow events for a few decades, until the climate grows so warm that we pass the point where winter temperatures are at the optimum for heavy snow events. However, a study by Houston and Changnon (2009) on the most severe types of snowstorms--the "top ten" heaviest snows on record for each of 121 major U.S. cities--shows no upward or downward trend in the very heaviest snowstorms for the contiguous U.S. between 1948 - 2001.

A new snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic and New York City on Monday
The extreme amounts of snow on the ground in the Mid-Atlantic thanks to back-to-back blizzards over the past week will get a fresh layer on top Monday night, when a new snowstorm will probably dump another 3 - 6 inches of snow on Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia. The new storm is called an "Alberta Clipper", due to its fast motion and genesis location in Canada's Alberta Province. These storms are relatively dry and tend to bring lighter, fluffier snow. Once the Clipper moves out over the Atlantic off the coast of Maryland, it will pick up some Atlantic moisture and bring some heavier snows to the New York City region, potentially 6 - 10 inches.

Media coverage by the Washington Post
I did a phone-in press call with 20 media outlets on Thursday, to discuss how record snowstorms do not imply that global warming is not occurring. Participating on the call with me was Dr. Joe Romm, who blogs on climate-related issues for climateprogress.org. The audio is posted there if you want to listen.

The Washington Post highlighted a portion of the call where I said, "there's a huge amount of natural variability in the climate system", not enough years of measurements to know exactly what's going on, and "Unfortunately we don't have that data so we are forced to make decisions based on inadequate data." The article said that my statements shot down the statement by Joe Romm that "the overwhelming weight of the scientific literature" points to human-caused warming and that doubters "don't understand the science." Let me clarify that there will always be considerable uncertainty in our understanding of a chaotic system like the atmosphere. We should not demand certainty where it cannot exist, always using uncertainty as an excuse for taking no action. Keep in mind that the uncertainty goes both ways--climate change could be far worse than the IPCC is predicting, and it would be wise to buy an intelligent amount of insurance to protect ourselves. I agree with Dr. Romm's statement, and the official Statement on Climate Change from the American Meteorological Society, "Despite the uncertainties...there is adequate evidence from observations and interpretations of climate simulations to conclude that the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; that humans have significantly contributed to this change; and that further climate change will continue to have important impacts on human societies, on economies, on ecosystems, and on wildlife through the 21st century and beyond." The official statement from the UK Royal Society and UK Met Office is also one I agree with, "The 2007 IPCC Assessment, the most comprehensive and respected analysis of climate change to date, states clearly that without substantial global reductions of greenhouse gas emissions we can likely expect a world of increasing droughts, floods and species loss, of rising seas and displaced human populations. However even since the 2007 IPCC Assessment the evidence for dangerous, long-term and potentially irreversible climate change has strengthened. The scientific evidence which underpins calls for action at Copenhagen is very strong. Without coordinated international action on greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts on climate and civilization could be severe.".

Next post
Looks like the winter onslaught will slow down for a day, so I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

overton texas 2/12/10 (dinkasu)
Biggest snowman eastexas
overton texas 2/12/10
Snow - 2.13.10 Palm Trees (ruralart)
Palm trees in the snow, Cheraw, SC
Snow - 2.13.10 Palm Trees
Snowy Palms (nuq)
Snowy Palms

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Quoting Drakoen:
It seems there is the potential for some brief snow showers across the deep south Monday morning. Thickness values on the 1000mb-500mb chart indicated a thickness of 540dm stretching down towards the coast as a vigorous longwave trough and clipper system advects eastward. Things will intially start out as rain and then change over to a rain/snow mix to snow. Not looking for any significant accumulations as the models are generally showing trace amounts in Louisiana and the majority of Mississippi. Accumulations between 1-3 inches will be possible east of Birmingham along I-59 and around Auburn along I-85 stretching up into Atlanta.





Thank You for the info..... I do want to say, this has been the craziest weather pattern I have been in.... I just donot beleive this has ever happen before.... Snow in Dallas(12.5) all the way to the Outer Banks in Carolina...... It is unheard of for sure....
Now a second chance will be coming in tonight and tomorrow....

Taco :0)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
It seems there is the potential for some brief snow showers across the deep south Monday morning. Thickness values on the 1000mb-500mb chart indicated a thickness of 540dm stretching down towards the coast as a vigorous longwave trough and clipper system advects eastward. Things will intially start out as rain and then change over to a rain/snow mix to snow. Not looking for any significant accumulations as the models are generally showing trace amounts in Louisiana and the majority of Mississippi. Accumulations between 1-3 inches will be possible east of Birmingham along I-59 and around Auburn along I-85 stretching up into Atlanta. Northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia could receive 2-4 inches.



Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
Quoting Nimitz:
Anyone giving any thought to what happens when all that snow melts? Are we looking at serious flooding events?


Not seeing it short-term. Long-term, I don't know. Haven't heard anything "in the wind," e.g., we all knew in advance there'd be flooding in North Dakota last year. But I'm no expert and not well "plugged-in."

Suppose a lot of it matters on how fast goes the warm-up. (Reminder to myself to be careful what I pray for!)

NWS river/flood gauges
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If you look at the Unisys thickness contour ("snow line" at 5400')
http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_con_thick.gif
...looks like snow will come a good way South.
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Thanks Ossqss, I appreciate the link!
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Anyone giving any thought to what happens when all that snow melts? Are we looking at serious flooding events?
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Valentine's Day & (Blog) Peace Erasers
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
atmostaggie, comment 68:

3. SSIGG has been awfully quiet about his well-known snow records for the deep south since the hardly-discernable AGW-snow link has been bandied about in here...and, of course, weather is not climate, but whatever the scenario was that brought Beaumont, TX (30 miles from the Gulf) 30 inches in one 24 hour period in 1895, we have rather clearly warmed some since then.

What? I've not been quiet about anything or afraid to express my opinion. Do you have a question for me atmoaggie?

Okay. Well, I see you did a write up that I had not seen before I posted this (I don't often cruise all of the blogs...whom has that much time?)

I was remarking that Dr. M has been posting about snowfall trends and the frequency of snowstorms in certain areas, yet no one had brought up the record snowfalls along the western north gulf coast.

No, you aren't very quiet...
;-)
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181, there is a study in this article relating to it with respect to typhoons. If you think about the way water behaves as influenced by low pressure, it kinda makes some sense that plates would be impacted to some degree by low pressure also. Just a pondering take :)

http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/11/20/20climatewire-how-storms-can-trigger-earthquakes-28304.html

I should also note that the Cuba region had a 5.4 quake on Friday.

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Quoting TampaSpin:


I guess we could move a few hundreds yards further south......but it appears that won't help too much.

ONE THING i am in fear of....and many will find me crazy here but, another very large earthquake coming to the Northern Hemisphere....it seems to always happen after an event like this ......it has in history also.


Tim, can you give me a source on that, I'd be interested to learn more.
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180. IKE
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


We don't need another very large earthquake. See comment I just posted on Portlight blog Link

This is a report by our local physicians who just returned from Haiti. Too much still to do there.


I read that. Terrible situation there and it doesn't read like there's enough doctors to take care of the injured and sick.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting TampaSpin:


I guess we could move a few hundreds yards further south......but it appears that won't help too much.

ONE THING i am in fear of....and many will find me crazy here but, another very large earthquake coming to the Northern Hemisphere....it seems to always happen after an event like this ......it has in history also.


We don't need another very large earthquake. See comment I just posted on Portlight blog Link

This is a report by our local physicians who just returned from Haiti. Too much still to do there.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53817
177. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2010

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST
APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 24 DEGREES AT THE TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT TO
THE UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK-END EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM DOTHAN TO
ALBANY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FAIRLY WELL BEGINNING AROUND THE MID-
MORNING HOURS MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THEN INTO THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA OR WEST
OF ALBANY. IF THE AFTERNOON GUIDANCE PACKAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THIS POSSIBILITY...THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CURRENTLY IN
PLACE MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ANY
ACCUMULATIONS THAT DUE OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS EVENT.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Ossqss:


LoL, make it stop Tampa. Time to move south I think..... :)



I guess we could move a few hundreds yards further south......but it appears that won't help too much.

ONE THING i am in fear of....and many will find me crazy here but, another very large earthquake coming to the Northern Hemisphere....it seems to always happen after an event like this ......it has in history also.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
You all have to look at these forecasted Snowfall models....i have them all grouped together.....HOLLY COW!


LoL, make it stop Tampa. Time to move south I think..... :)

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Here comes the clipper heading south...


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Look how the brutally cold air heads toward the Northern US toward the end......OH NO!



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171. IKE
12Z NAM at 30 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
OH ya and even more Important HAPPY HAPPY NASCAR and Daytona Sunday! Let's go racin boys!
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167. IKE 2:03 PM GMT on February 14, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
This system is a "clipper" right? Never heard of a clipper-type system bring precip this far south ever..


Me neither.



I Triple that.....born and raised in Indiana i use to hear them all the time.....but Florida NEVER. Happy Valentines Day everyone!
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Quoting bophame:
I also wonder why daily mail hasn't been addressed as far as I have read the comments:
Because the daily mail twisted it
Read the ORIGINAL Q&A here


Q&A: Professor Phil Jones

Phil Jones is director of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA), which has been at the centre of the row over hacked e-mails.

The BBC's environment analyst Roger Harrabin put questions to Professor Jones, including several gathered from climate sceptics. The questions were put to Professor Jones with the co-operation of UEA's press office.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
167. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
This system is a "clipper" right? Never heard of a clipper-type system bring precip this far south ever..


Me neither.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
In reference to the OP, I wonder which is better: warming or cooling? It strikes me that cooling could lead to shorter growing seasons and famine.

I also wonder why this hasn't been addressed as far as I have read the comments:

The academic at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change, has admitted that he has trouble ‘keeping track’ of the information.

Colleagues say that the reason Professor Phil Jones has refused Freedom of Information requests is that he may have actually lost the relevant papers.

Professor Jones told the BBC yesterday there was truth in the observations of colleagues that he lacked organisational skills, that his office was swamped with piles of paper and that his record keeping is ‘not as good as it should be’.

The data is crucial to the famous ‘hockey stick graph’ used by climate change advocates to support the theory.

Professor Jones also conceded the possibility that the world was warmer in medieval times than now – suggesting global warming may not be a man-made phenomenon.

And he said that for the past 15 years there has been no ‘statistically significant’ warming.

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This system is a "clipper" right? Never heard of a clipper-type system bring precip this far south ever..
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163. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here we go agian Ike!


LOL...round 2.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Here we go agian Ike!
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Quoting aquak9:
obviously it's dark there now, Aussie. I read your posts, lotta rain. Feel free to send it, uhm, well all the way around to the other side of the earth.

I like rain.

I like the rain to, but February is the humidity month, always high humidity. I went for a shower about 7pm tonight. i was in the bedroom getting dressed and I started sweating again, i felt as if i hadn't dried off yet.
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obviously it's dark there now, Aussie. I read your posts, lotta rain. Feel free to send it, uhm, well all the way around to the other side of the earth.

I like rain.
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Quoting aquak9:
hi aussie! a good morning here- was sunday a good day? I hope so, it's still ahead of me.

Ike- nuthin' but dry and cold for my area. Sigh...could be worse I suppose.

SnowHog.

Sunday was a rainy day


This is my live cam
Live streaming video by Ustream
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hi aussie! a good morning here- was sunday a good day? I hope so, it's still ahead of me.

Ike- nuthin' but dry and cold for my area. Sigh...could be worse I suppose.

SnowHog.
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157. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning WU-Bloggers...

ike- again?


LOL....we'll see.

Accuweather and TWC don't have any in their forecast for me.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning WU-Bloggers...

ike- again?

Good evening
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g'morning WU-Bloggers...

ike- again?
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154. IKE
Special Weather Statement
Alert:

...POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR RAPIDLY SPILLING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS NOW THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE RAINFALL TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A
TIME BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE
THIS BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NORTH OF A LINE FROM DE FUNIAK
SPRINGS AND MARIANNA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THOMASVILLE AND
TIFTON IN GEORGIA. THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE TRAVELS THE
CHANCES FOR A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL INCREASES. CONFIDENCE
IN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IF THE
TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS CONTINUES...THEN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR MONDAY.

IF A CHANGE TO SNOW DOES OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WOULD BE
AROUND...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING TO THE WEST OF
DOTHAN AND MARIANNA...AND THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
WEST OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS BY MIDDAY...AND
BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
PERSONS ACROSS THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ARE ASKED TO REMAIN ALERT TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS WITH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
20S WITH WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING THE UPPER TEENS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

Instructions:
Target Area:
Coffee
Dale
Henry
Geneva
Houston
Inland Walton
Coastal Walton
Holmes
Washington
Jackson
Bay
Calhoun
Gulf
Franklin
Gadsden
Leon
Jefferson
Madison
Liberty
Wakulla
Taylor
Lafayette
Dixie
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting P451:


Yep. Never touch the popup. Don't even click the supposed red X to close the popup window. Many of these are manipulated and when you click on it you're essentially answering the vital question windows asks you "Do you want to install this click yes to install this".

And, you've just let the trojan in.

What you do when you encounter such popups is CTRL-ALT-DELETE and terminate IE or Firefox. This way you're free and clear. I wouldn't even right-click and choose close window on your task bar for the popup. Some are so ingenious that that will infect you as well.

Terminate the application manually. And you'll be just fine.

And godforbid if you ever though you just screwed up and infected your computer do not reboot. Scan the hell out of it and delete all your caches. For it's the reboot that manifests the virus and also plants the seeds that allows it to reinstall itself even after you think you've gotten it.

I also don't understand why people don't use firefox with adblocker.


I have firefox with adblocker
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I have my Network cam up and running, it can be found at here.
Cheers
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150. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS ABOVE 70 PERCENT TO FALL AS
RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND BECOME A MIX SHORTLY THEREAFTER JUST BEHIND
THE FROPA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 850 TO 700 MB THICKNESSES LOOK TOO
COLD FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN, THAT IS, WE CANNOT FIND A WARM
LAYER. PER THE GFS THE LAYER WILL COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES RANGING FROM 1300M NEAR DESTIN TO 1275 WELL
INLAND BY 12Z MONDAY, AS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN CHANGES TO A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND FOR
ACCUMULATION, THE GFS CALCULATED AROUND A HALF INCH AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INLAND PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCREASING TO JUST THREE
INCHES NORTH OF NORTHERN CHOCTAW AND NORTHERN WILCOX COUNTIES. WE
DETERMINED THAT SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN CWA WOULD LIKELY NOT EXCEED
2 INCHES AND THUS WOULD DOWNPLAY A NEED FOR A WINTER STORM WARNING
AGAIN. THEREFORE WE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR SNOW RANGING FROM 2 INCHES NORTH TO A HALF INCH ALONG I-10.
SREF ALSO SHOWS SNOW LIKELY MAINLY JUST BEFORE 12Z MONDAY, BUT THAT
DOES INCLUDE OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES, THROUGH 18Z. THE SREF
CALCULATIONS DO NOT FORECAST FREEZING RAIN NOR A WINTRY MIX TYPE
PRECIP. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
MID THIRTIES SUGGESTING THAT SNOW COULD MELT ON IMPACT DUE TO THE
WARM GROUND ESPECIALLY ROADS. /77
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning everybody, 26.9*F in Macon Georgia this morning. Could not believe our local forecast for Bibb County:

Today
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
» ZIP Code Detail

Tonight
Rain and snow after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Presidents Day
Rain and snow in the morning...then mostly sunny with a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs around 40. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
148. IKE
Winter Weather Advisory
Alert:

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST MONDAY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ADVISORY AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 900 AM
MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THEN TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD AIRMASS PUSHES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-10 TO FALL COMPLETELY AS SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 900 AM MONDAY.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
900 AM CST MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ADVISORY AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND 900 AM MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD AIRMASS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-10 TO FALL
COMPLETELY AS SNOW.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES NORTH OF A
WIGGINS MS...BAY MINETTE AL...GREEN BAY AL LINE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. UP TO ONE-HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH JUST A DUSTING SOUTH OF I-10. BEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ANY
STANDING WATER OR WET SPOTS LEFT ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
NORTHWEST OF I-65 COULD FREEZE...CAUSING ICY SLICK SPOTS THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY DAYBREAK...AND AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 900 AM MONDAY.

Instructions: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Target Area:
Choctaw
Washington
Clarke
Wilcox
Monroe
Conecuh
Butler
Crenshaw
Escambia
Covington
Upper Mobile
Upper Baldwin
Lower Mobile
Lower Baldwin
Inland Escambia
Coastal Escambia
Inland Santa Rosa
Coastal Santa Rosa
Inland Okaloosa
Coastal Okaloosa
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
147. IKE
Mobile, AL. forecast...

Tonight: Rain likely before 3am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
413 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...

RUNNING LATE...SO WILL BE AS BRIEF AS POSSIBLE...

INTERESTING CLIPPER OR REALLY HYBRID-CLIPPER SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTH AT THE MOMENT AND WILL BRING WHAT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST.
HERE
IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...THIS THING HAS BEEN A HEADACHE TO FORECAST AS
NUMERICAL MODELS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT WOULD FALL...NOT TO MENTION WHEN AND WHERE
THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...I WAS MUCH
MORE SATISFIED WITH A NUMBER OF THE 0Z MODELS...WHICH ARE SEEMINGLY COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.

THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A HYBRID...DUE TO THE WEAK
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT TAKES PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRENGTHENING UPPER CLOSED LOW. THIS IN EFFECT WILL CREATE A
DECENT AREA OF WARM TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS IT
BRIEFLY TAPS INTO THE GULF AIRMASS. THIS WILL AID IN SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT RATHER QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE BEST LIFT CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND A BRIEF...YET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP MASS EXITS TO THE EAST
TOWARDS DAY BREAK. SPEAKING OF LIFT...CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY
IMPRESSED WITH THE VERTICAL MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THUNDER SNOW WILL
POSSIBLY BE IN THE CARDS.
THIS CAN LEAD TO QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT
WILL BE COUPLED WITH THE TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...I FEEL IN A
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE...1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
BHM AND TCL METRO AREAS NORTH. AREAS SOUTH...WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
ADVISORY CATEGORY SEEING ONE QUARTER TO 1 INCH OR SO. THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW MAY BE A TAD SLOWER IN THESE AREAS.
AT THIS POINT I WOULD GO OUT ON A LIMB AND SAY THAT MOST PLACES IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER...EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
TROY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. WILL LEAVE THE DAY CREW WITH THOUGHTS OF
POSSIBLY EXTENDING BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH AS
NEWER INFO DICTATES.


WOW THUNDER SNOW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
145. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
413 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...

RUNNING LATE...SO WILL BE AS BRIEF AS POSSIBLE...

INTERESTING CLIPPER OR REALLY HYBRID-CLIPPER SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTH AT THE MOMENT AND WILL BRING WHAT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST.
HERE
IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...THIS THING HAS BEEN A HEADACHE TO FORECAST AS
NUMERICAL MODELS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT WOULD FALL...NOT TO MENTION WHEN AND WHERE
THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...I WAS MUCH
MORE SATISFIED WITH A NUMBER OF THE 0Z MODELS...WHICH ARE SEEMINGLY COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.

THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT OF A HYBRID...DUE TO THE WEAK
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT TAKES PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRENGTHENING UPPER CLOSED LOW. THIS IN EFFECT WILL CREATE A
DECENT AREA OF WARM TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS IT
BRIEFLY TAPS INTO THE GULF AIRMASS. THIS WILL AID IN SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT RATHER QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE BEST LIFT CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND A BRIEF...YET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP MASS EXITS TO THE EAST
TOWARDS DAY BREAK. SPEAKING OF LIFT...CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY
IMPRESSED WITH THE VERTICAL MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THUNDER SNOW WILL
POSSIBLY BE IN THE CARDS.
THIS CAN LEAD TO QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT
WILL BE COUPLED WITH THE TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...I FEEL IN A
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE...1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
BHM AND TCL METRO AREAS NORTH. AREAS SOUTH...WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
ADVISORY CATEGORY SEEING ONE QUARTER TO 1 INCH OR SO. THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW MAY BE A TAD SLOWER IN THESE AREAS.
AT THIS POINT I WOULD GO OUT ON A LIMB AND SAY THAT MOST PLACES IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER...EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS
TROY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. WILL LEAVE THE DAY CREW WITH THOUGHTS OF
POSSIBLY EXTENDING BOTH THE WARNING AND ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH AS
NEWER INFO DICTATES.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Can't sleep. Think I'm getting sick with sore throat and stuffed nose.
No wonder with these temps!
Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
35.1 %uFFFDF

Scattered Clouds
Windchill: 35 %uFFFDF
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 32 %uFFFDF
Wind: 0.0 mphfrom the West
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 30.07 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 12 ft

Hopefully, the folks camping out at the Daytona 500 have heaters!
Wasn't dressed warmly enough or sitting in a cold theatre watching Avatar yesterday. Entertainment with a social message. How refreshing.
Doesn't mean all military operations are bad, by any means, but thought they did a good job showing how clumsy (understated) this approach can be.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11322
143. IKE
Are you kidding me?


Presidents Day
Mostly cloudy with rain or snow in the morning...then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs 46 to 50. Northwest winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Canberra soaking in heaviest rain in eight years


Canberra is soaking in it's heaviest rain in eight years with 57mm falling in the last 24 hours.

Since early Saturday morning 68mm has fallen in the nation's capital leading to flash flooding.

It's been similarly wet right across the ACT. Tuggeranong in the south has picked up 64mm since early Saturday.

Rain will continue to come down during most of Sunday, so another 30 to 60mm is possible. This could lead to further flooding.

This will turn out to be one of the wettest weekends in decades.

Only light showers are possible on Monday and Tuesday and it will then dry out for the rest of the week.

- Weatherzone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Extreme winds to affect the southeast


Parts of New South Wales and Victoria are bracing for more wild weather, which will bring storm force winds, dangerous surf and heavy rain.

A low which has been drowning parts of New South Wales will push south and east before deepening off the southern coast tonight through Monday.

As the low deepens it will send dangerous conditions over Victoria and southeast NSW. Coastal areas between Lakes Entrance and Gabo Island could even see storm force winds rising in excess of 90km/h.

It will not only be the wind wreaking havoc over coastal regions but a large swell will hammer the coastline, causing beach erosion. The Vic coast will see swells as high as five to eight metres and for the NSW coastline south of Ulladulla swells will rise to five metres.

While this may provide great surf conditions, inexperienced surfers may find themselves in deep water with the large waves breaking hard.

Exposed areas over inland parts of southeast NSW and eastern VIC could also see winds gusting in excess of 90km/h.

Heavy rain will also be driven over the region with some areas likely to see in excess of 50mm, with the highest amounts over East Gippsland.

- Weatherzone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sydney braces for flash flooding


Sydney-siders should be prepared for more possible flash flooding tonight as thunderstorms move across New South Wales.

The Bureau of Meteorology says a rain band will cross from the north-west of the state to the south-east, bringing falls of up to 100 millimetres in some areas and possible flash flooding.

Forecaster Chris Webb says tonight Sydney could be inundated like it was on Friday.

"There's still an element of doubt about it, but we think there there's the risk of later on today, particularly late afternoon and evening, some localised thunderstorms and maybe some heavy rainfall associated with those," he said.

"So we're just keeping an eye out for some local flooding late today in Sydney."

The State Emergency Service says it received 29 calls for help across New South Wales last night.

- ABC
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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