The United States of Snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:51 PM GMT on February 13, 2010

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We live in the United States of Snow. A rare Deep South heavy snowstorm whipped across the southern tier of states yesterday, dumping six-plus inches of snow over portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Even Florida got into the act, with up to two inches recorded in the extreme northwestern Panhandle. The snowstorm left 49 of the 50 states with snow cover, according to an article by Associated Press. Hawaii was the lone hold-out. David Robinson, head of the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, said that 67.1% of the U.S. had snow cover on Friday morning, with the average depth a respectable 8 inches. Normally, the U.S. has about 40 - 50% snow coverage during the 2nd week of February. January had the 6th greatest snow cover in the 44-year record over the contiguous U.S., and December 2009 had the most snow cover of any December on record. The current pattern of record heavy snows over the the Eastern U.S. is primarily due to a natural oscillation in the Earth's climate system called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). (Some prefer to discuss this in terms of the Arctic Oscillation, which is as a close cousin of the NAO, and one can use either). I discussed the NAO's influence on winter weather in a post last month. Another contributing factor is probably the current moderate El NiƱo event.

An all-time record snow for Dallas
The most recent storm clobbered Dallas with 12.5" of snow, the heaviest snow on record for the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. Dallas' previous record was 7.4", set on January 15 - 16, 1964. The 15.7" of snow that has now fallen on Dallas this winter eclipses the previous record seasonal snowfall for the city--14.1" during the winter of 1977 - 1978. The snowstorm dumped over a foot of snow along a narrow region just north of Dallas and Fort Worth, with the towns of Haslet and Duncanville receiving 14.2" and 14.9", respectively.


Figure 1. Dallas' all-time record snowfall made for an un-inviting swim at this pool in nearby Flower Mound. Image credit: wunderphotographer texasdog.

A few selected snow amounts from the storm, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
HARKERS ISLAND 3.2 NE 8.8
HAVELOCK 2.7 S 8.5
BEAUFORT 7.0
NEWPORT 7.0
SEA LEVEL 7.0
OUTLAND 4 S 6.8
WINTERVILLE 3.5 W 6.4
CAPE CARTERET 6.2
BETTIE 6.0
BURGAW 6.0
JACKSONVILLE 6.0
MOREHEAD CITY 6.0
GREENVILLE 5.8

...ALABAMA...
BELLEVILLE 6.0
BRANTLEY 5.0
EVERGREEN 5 N 5.0
THOMASVILLE 5.0
EUFAULA 4 S 4.5
LOTTIE 4.5
MONROEVILLE 0.6 SSW 4.1
ARITON 4.0
PINSON 4.0
RAMER 4.0
TROY 4.0
WARD 4.0

...ARKANSAS...
FOREMAN 4.0
TEXARKANA 1 N 4.0

...FLORIDA...
BERRYDALE 2.0
MUNSON 2.0
JAY 1.0

...GEORGIA...
LUMPKIN 6.0
WASHINGTON 1.9 NE 5.8
LOGANVILLE 4 SSE 5.3
NICHOLSON 4.9 SE 4.8
ATHENS 3.2 NW 4.6
LA GRANGE 10.6 ESE 4.5
WATKINSVILLE 1.6 ENE 4.4
ROCKMART 9.6 SSE 4.3
TALBOTTON 4.0
HAMILTON 5 W 3.5
VILLA RICA 3.5
SENOIA 2 N 3.0
DACULA 2.5
CUTHBERT 2.0
MACON 2.0
ROME 2.0

...LOUISIANA...
SHREVEPORT 9.1 SE 6.1
NATCHITOCHES 0.9 NE 6.0
SHONGALOO 5 N 6.0
SICILY ISLAND 3.3 WNW 6.0
GOLDONNA 8.8 SSW 5.6
MONROE 5.0
PLAIN DEALING 3.3 ESE 5.0
HOMER 1.2 N 3.7
WEST MONROE 6.1 WSW 3.5

...MISSISSIPPI...
DE KALB 8.0
BUDE 6.5
VICKSBURG 6.3
BROOKHAVEN 6.0
NATCHEZ 6.0
PETAL 6.0
BRANDON 5.0
CATAHOULA 5.0
MADISON 5.0
BRANDON 1.9 NE 4.6
MERIDIAN 4.5
MCCALL CREEK 5 W 4.0

...OKLAHOMA...
HAWORTH 4 SW 7.5
IDABEL 8 SE 7.5

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
SUMMERVILLE 3.8 NE 8.2
COLUMBIA 7.3
BAMBERG 7.0
BOWMAN 7.0
EVANS 1 SE 7.0
LEXINGTON 1.6 WNW 7.0
OAK GROVE 1 SE 7.0
OATLAND 8 N 7.0
SMOAKS 7.0
HEMINGWAY 6.8
SANGAREE 6.5
ORANGEBURG 6.0
DARLINGTON 5.0
BLYTHE 4.0
CHARLESTON 3.3
BEAUFORT 3.0

...TEXAS...
DUNCANVILLE 1.7 NNW 14.9
HASLET 14.2
FORT WORTH 12.6
DALLAS 12.5
MANSFIELD 2.6 NNE 12.2
BRIDGEPORT 12.0
ROYSE CITY 12.0
SANGER 1.8 WSW 12.0
MESQUITE 3.3 ESE 11.4
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS 1.9 NE 11.3

As we can see from a plot of the frequency of U.S. snowstorms between 1900 - 2001 (Figure 2), heavy snow events of 6+ inches occur about once every ten years for Dallas, and between once every ten years and once every 100 years for the portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina that received 6+ inches of snow from this storm.


Figure 2. The annual average number of snowstorms with a 6 inch (15.2 cm) or greater accumulation, from the years 1901 - 2001. A value of 0.1 means an average of one 6+ inch snowstorm every ten years. Image credit: Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 8, pp. 1141-1155, DOI: 10.1175/JAM2395.1.

More heavy snowstorms occur in warmer-than-average years
I made this point in yesterday's blog post, but it's worth repeating. Another interesting result from the Changnon et al. (2006) paper of Figure 2 is the relationship between heavy snowstorms and the average winter temperature. For the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, the authors found that 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. In other words, the old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. So, there is evidence that the average climate of the U.S. over the past 100 years is colder than optimal for heavy snow events to occur. If the climate continues to warm, we should expect an increase in heavy snow events for a few decades, until the climate grows so warm that we pass the point where winter temperatures are at the optimum for heavy snow events. However, a study by Houston and Changnon (2009) on the most severe types of snowstorms--the "top ten" heaviest snows on record for each of 121 major U.S. cities--shows no upward or downward trend in the very heaviest snowstorms for the contiguous U.S. between 1948 - 2001.

A new snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic and New York City on Monday
The extreme amounts of snow on the ground in the Mid-Atlantic thanks to back-to-back blizzards over the past week will get a fresh layer on top Monday night, when a new snowstorm will probably dump another 3 - 6 inches of snow on Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia. The new storm is called an "Alberta Clipper", due to its fast motion and genesis location in Canada's Alberta Province. These storms are relatively dry and tend to bring lighter, fluffier snow. Once the Clipper moves out over the Atlantic off the coast of Maryland, it will pick up some Atlantic moisture and bring some heavier snows to the New York City region, potentially 6 - 10 inches.

Media coverage by the Washington Post
I did a phone-in press call with 20 media outlets on Thursday, to discuss how record snowstorms do not imply that global warming is not occurring. Participating on the call with me was Dr. Joe Romm, who blogs on climate-related issues for climateprogress.org. The audio is posted there if you want to listen.

The Washington Post highlighted a portion of the call where I said, "there's a huge amount of natural variability in the climate system", not enough years of measurements to know exactly what's going on, and "Unfortunately we don't have that data so we are forced to make decisions based on inadequate data." The article said that my statements shot down the statement by Joe Romm that "the overwhelming weight of the scientific literature" points to human-caused warming and that doubters "don't understand the science." Let me clarify that there will always be considerable uncertainty in our understanding of a chaotic system like the atmosphere. We should not demand certainty where it cannot exist, always using uncertainty as an excuse for taking no action. Keep in mind that the uncertainty goes both ways--climate change could be far worse than the IPCC is predicting, and it would be wise to buy an intelligent amount of insurance to protect ourselves. I agree with Dr. Romm's statement, and the official Statement on Climate Change from the American Meteorological Society, "Despite the uncertainties...there is adequate evidence from observations and interpretations of climate simulations to conclude that the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; that humans have significantly contributed to this change; and that further climate change will continue to have important impacts on human societies, on economies, on ecosystems, and on wildlife through the 21st century and beyond." The official statement from the UK Royal Society and UK Met Office is also one I agree with, "The 2007 IPCC Assessment, the most comprehensive and respected analysis of climate change to date, states clearly that without substantial global reductions of greenhouse gas emissions we can likely expect a world of increasing droughts, floods and species loss, of rising seas and displaced human populations. However even since the 2007 IPCC Assessment the evidence for dangerous, long-term and potentially irreversible climate change has strengthened. The scientific evidence which underpins calls for action at Copenhagen is very strong. Without coordinated international action on greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts on climate and civilization could be severe.".

Next post
Looks like the winter onslaught will slow down for a day, so I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

overton texas 2/12/10 (dinkasu)
Biggest snowman eastexas
overton texas 2/12/10
Snow - 2.13.10 Palm Trees (ruralart)
Palm trees in the snow, Cheraw, SC
Snow - 2.13.10 Palm Trees
Snowy Palms (nuq)
Snowy Palms

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Wahoo looks like the northeast might finally get some much needed snow. Hope this storm tracks north to give us more snow. Any updates on how intense this storm is going to be?
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Quoting Ossqss:


Aussie, you have over 50 folks checkin out your cam. If you can dance we can make some money for Portlight :)

Where is Press when you need him?

I am recording my broadcast, once it finishes, i'll post it here so you can watch me waving to everyone again.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey aussie i see ya have a chat area i just sign up now i can stalk ya

lol

Did you get my message to you in the chat area?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
253, 260:

Divergence problem
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Ossqss:


Well look here. It's not so hard, and for charity :)



Have a good night all and I hope your holiday was a good one. L8R

Holiday??? do you mean the holiday i had over christmas.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
hey aussie i see ya have a chat area i just sign up now i can stalk ya

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting AussieStorm:

HAHAHA, i couldn't dance to save my life.


Well look here. It's not so hard, and for charity :)



Have a good night all and I hope your holiday was a good one. L8R
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there the best one's and it appears too work great nice fast streaming image its amazing to be able to see ya from the other side of the world we have come far in a short while with this tech age

Yep, cool aint it.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Gold for Canada :)
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Charleston Radar
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Quoting AussieStorm:

My network camera was a freebie.
there the best one's and it appears too work great nice fast streaming image its amazing to be able to see ya from the other side of the world we have come far in a short while with this tech age
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Ossqss:


Aussie, you have over 50 folks checkin out your cam. If you can dance we can make some money for Portlight :)

Where is Press when you need him?

HAHAHA, i couldn't dance to save my life.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
I am just having a look around the USTREAM site, found this live radar
And this radar.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am 6'1.


Aussie, you have over 50 folks checkin out your cam. If you can dance we can make some money for Portlight :)

Where is Press when you need him?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cool mate just saw ya we are getting 18 cams installed in building i look after 11 storys once the system is installed i will hook my roof cam to it and upload it as well its a big bill for system almost 25000 CAD my cost is 500 for roof cam but i will bunny hop on to the main building system as that will be installed and set up in my rental unit along side my own computer system mangement informs me that it looks like sometime in the spring it will be done i try myself but posed too big a job and too high an expense but with building installing system it will make my install and expense next to nothing

My network camera was a freebie.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting PcolaDan:

Yea we did, you look taller on camera. LOL

I am 6'1.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting Ossqss:


Oh well, I thought Ya might be having a bad hair day - LoL J/K

I don't have much hair to have a bad hair day.

Quoting PcolaDan:
Aussie, is that your neighbors house across the street?

LMAO posted, then saw your post 268
too funny caught it just in time

You really are you. LOL


We are in a cul-de-sac, That is one of many nieghbours.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did you see me?

Yea we did, you look taller on camera. LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
cool mate just saw ya we are getting 18 cams installed in building i look after 11 storys once the system is installed i will hook my roof cam to it and upload it as well its a big bill for system almost 25000 CAD my cost is 500 for roof cam but i will bunny hop on to the main building system as that will be installed and set up in my rental unit along side my own computer system mangement informs me that it looks like sometime in the spring it will be done i try myself but posed too big a job and too high an expense but with building installing system it will make my install and expense next to nothing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296


Oh well, I thought Ya might be having a bad hair day - LoL J/K
Quoting AussieStorm:

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have moved it and will now go out and stand outside

Did you see me?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Aussie, is that your neighbors house across the street?

LMAO posted, then saw your post 268
too funny caught it just in time

You really are you. LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:


Cool Aussie. Glad to see you got it to work. Looked earlier this morning but it was still dark. lol

I have moved it and will now go out and stand outside
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting Ossqss:


Well are ya gonna step in front of the camera to wave to the crowd? Ya gotta bunch checkin ya out! Cmon Aussie!:)

It's on the 1st floor, pretty hard to get in front of it unless i climb onto the neighbours roof.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting AussieStorm:
My cam is on. Its a beautiful clear day.

Live Video streaming by Ustream


Cool Aussie. Glad to see you got it to work. Looked earlier this morning but it was still dark. lol
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
255. bophame 1:12 AM GMT on February 15, 2010

Thank you kindly for your suggestion. However, I stopped at the "global warming high priest Phil Jones" line.

BoynSea
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Quoting AussieStorm:
My cam is on. Its a beautiful clear day.

Live Video streaming by Ustream


Well are ya gonna step in front of the camera to wave to the crowd? Ya gotta bunch checkin ya out! Cmon Aussie!:)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Looks like a decent line of snow moving through AR, NW LA, and E TX as it continues to press south and east...hopefully it'll stay together long enough to press all the way through the Panhandle, even down towards the coast this time.
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My cam is on. Its a beautiful clear day.

Live Video streaming by Ustream
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261. xcool
snow for slidell la wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
It is interesting to understand how many tree samples made graphs happen. Do you know how many made the hockey stick graph over time?

Then consider the definitive influence of special interest provided data (if you want to call it that) in the IPCC report and the ES. That information directly impacted governmental policy and cost everyone Trillions.

I have read and purchased more papers than I care to think about. I don't like the status of this science. It reeks of wrong doing. Peer review?

Here is an interesting paper if you like to peruse it. It is linked in this article as a PDF.

I hope we can get away from controversy and get back to science.

One of the most striking things I have viewed was the admission of Phil Jones considering suicide after the emails were released. What does that tell you?

New paper on mathematical analysis of GHG

And how about that DNA from Bugs, flora and fauna in South Central Greenland's 2,000 meter deep ice cores? Let alone tree remnants on the Northern Coast.
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258. beell
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...SFC COLD FRONT
-- ANALYZED AT 23Z NEAR LINE FROM DYR-GLH-MLU-JAS-SAT-DRT -- IS FCST
TO SWEEP RAPIDLY SWD THROUGH REMAINDER S TX BEFORE ABOUT 06Z...AND
EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN
KY LOW SWD TO NEAR GA/AL BORDER THEN SWWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS FL
PANHANDLE AND N-CENTRAL THROUGH W-CENTRAL GULF...

...MID/UPPER TX COAST TO DELTA REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED OVER PORTIONS LA AND COASTAL
PLAIN OF SE TX...IN COMBINED REGIME OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND SFC
DIABATIC HEATING. THIS HAS LED TO SFC TEMPS LOW 60S F IN TURN
YIELDING NARROW ZONE OF UNCAPPED/100-250 J/KG MLCAPE AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
DARK...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST EWD OVER PORTIONS ERN/SRN LA AND
MS IN ELEVATED WAA REGIME EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FCST TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 03Z.

FARTHER SW...VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF
LOWER TX COAST...WHERE COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON SFC DEW POINTS UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S F AND RESIDUAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SFC
COOLING...RESULTANT REDUCTION IN MLCAPE DURING TIME OF FROPA...AND
QUICK UNDERCUTTING BY POSTFRONTAL CAA WEDGE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED SFC-BASED CONVECTION. COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE TOO
SMALL TO WARRANT GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK...
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My 253 somehow lost Hinderaker's comment on question D:

In fact, solar activity has not been "about flat" over the period in question, rather it was at a higher level early in the warming period and more recently has been declining as manifested by an unusual scarcity of sunspots. Jones attributes little impact to the variations in solar output because he discounts the current theory, now being hotly debated, that cosmic rays associated with greater solar activity magnify the effect of increased solar energy by affecting cloud cover and by increasing water vapor in the atmosphere. This theory may ultimately be proved or disproved, but it is a fact, not easily dismissed by the alarmists, that for the time period or which we have records there is a close correlation between sunspot activity (a good proxy for variations in solar intensity) and temperatures on earth.

In any event, it is simply not scientific to assume that if two other factors--solar intensity and volcanoes--do not fully explain changes in temperatures, then whatever remains must be due to anthropogenic global warming. The Earth's climate system is complex and not well understood. There is no scientific basis for assuming that AGW accounts for "everything else."
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252, 250, 244: I suggest you read the primary source at the BBC. I just posted some of the data plus analysis from Powerline.
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168: OK. You claim that you think the Daily Mail version of the Phil Jones BBC interview is twisted. So how about an extensive set of quotations and analysis. Powerline quotes extensively from the BBC interview.

Q (BBC): Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming?

A (Phil Jones): Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

Q: There is a debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was global or not. If it were to be conclusively shown that it was a global phenomenon, would you accept that this would undermine the premise that mean surface atmospheric temperatures during the latter part of the 20th Century were unprecedented?

A: There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia. For it to be global in extent the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere. There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions.

Of course, if the MWP was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today (based on an equivalent coverage over the NH and SH) then obviously the late-20th century warmth would not be unprecedented. On the other hand, if the MWP was global, but was less warm that today, then current warmth would be unprecedented.

We know from the instrumental temperature record that the two hemispheres do not always follow one another. We cannot, therefore, make the assumption that temperatures in the global average will be similar to those in the northern hemisphere.


Hinderaker points out where Jones goes into how tree ring data was used until it became inconvenient in the period after 1960, because it no longer tracked with the instrumental data. That is an inconsistent application of data, and it leads me to believe on the basis of many questions raised about the data that it may well be the instrumental data that is not to be trusted.

Finally, it seems that the key question is D because Jones refers back to it several times:

Q: Do you agree that natural influences could have contributed significantly to the global warming observed from 1975-1998, and, if so, please could you specify each natural influence and express its radiative forcing over the period in Watts per square metre.

A: This area is slightly outside my area of expertise. When considering changes over this period we need to consider all possible factors (so human and natural influences as well as natural internal variability of the climate system). Natural influences (from volcanoes and the Sun) over this period could have contributed to the change over this period. Volcanic influences from the two large eruptions (El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991) would exert a negative influence. Solar influence was about flat over this period. Combining only these two natural influences, therefore, we might have expected some cooling over this period.

To which Hinderaker makes the following comment:

<>

So my question here is, what is the status of the debate on the contribution of sunspot activity to climate, and is Jones the one doing the "twisting" here?
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244. bjrabbit 12:15 AM GMT

Thank you for that link, BJ. More ammunition for me.

For a long time I have taken heat for my opinions on the AGW debate; a little more exoneration seems to come my way each day now.

This latest one is the best yet.
Regards.

BoynSea
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
250. beell
Quoting bjrabbit:
Hey Doc, it looks like the lead dog in the Global Warming pack has veered off the path. Any comments?

Link

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-gl obal-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html


Good thing the Climate Science Community does not have to comply with data management practices with a process similar to Sarbanes-Oxley. They probably never thought their work would be subject to such "Global" scrutiny 10 years ago.

Go ask Enron!
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hi guys come check out new blog hope we get a big nice cold front soon with lots of rain bye
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x
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
If y'all thought the recent Dallas snows were monumental, check out what happened in places such as Houston and Beaumont 115 years ago today!

Link
Link


30"?! Wow, to see a picture from that....
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If y'all thought the recent Dallas snows were monumental, check out what happened in places such as Houston and Beaumont 115 years ago today!

Link
Link
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Hey Doc, it looks like the lead dog in the Global Warming pack has veered off the path. Any comments?

Link

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-gl obal-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html
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243. beell
Thanks, Astro.

In simple terms, looks like a ridge over western NOAM and a trough in the east. Strange?
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18Z GFS expects the March 1 storm to mostly miss S. Ontario again...does it use older data?

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting beell:


Link, please...


Current jet stream pattern:



Forecast:



Ordinary El Nino - La Nina comparison:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Current global SST map:



Changes, some unusual, since one week ago (this is a sneak peak to what I might put in a future blog post):


Gulf Stream: 20C+ zone diverted due east at latitude of southern Maryland, looping southeast, while the sub-15C zone directly to its north has expanded eastward as well. A <20C eddy has developed around 31N, 73W, pushing the main Gulf Stream at the longitude of eastern Cuba farther southwest. The 15C+ zone of the Gulf Stream-West Greenland diversion has shifted southeast, but the northwestern corner of the 8C line of the western current has moved farther northwest. Temperature lines of the main North Atlantic Drift from the latitude of Southern France northward have retreated, while the area west of Spitsbergen has warmed to a maximum temperature of 13C. The Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico has strengthened and the temperature gradient at its edge has increased.

Humboldt Current: The coolest pocket of the current has warmed from 14C to 16C. The sub-20C zone has shrunken to two-thirds of its previous size. The distance between the 22C line and the coolest part of the current has halved. All SST lines from 15C to 26C west of the current and east of the ENSO warm pool extension have encroached southeastward, while all of those lines north of the current have moved southward. The sub-26C zone by the equator west of Equador has been reduced by half, while the actual equator in the eastern Pacific no longer straddles any areas below 26C. The 26C+ zone off the coast of Northern Peru has expanded southeastward. South of the main Humboldt pocket, near 42S the 13C - 15C lines have bulged slightly northward.

Indian Ocean: The main 29C zone in the central Indian Ocean has shifted northward towards India, filling part of its western coast, partly broken by a gap from the south. The 26C line in the Bay of Bengal has moved northward. The 30C+ zone west of Madagascar has expanded from nearly nonexistant at a bay in Mozambique to covering the entire region west of Madagascar, north to the Tanzania-Kenya border, east to 58E, while there are two large pockets west of Madagascar over 31C, along with the original bay in Mozambique. The 30C+ zone southwest of Sumatra has been reduced. The 30C+ zone off of Northern Australia has changed from hugging the coast, to expanding north to the island shared by Papua New Guinea and New Guinea, westward to eastern Java, and eastward to the longitude of the Eastern Solomon Islands. The 31C+ zone has expanded from occupying the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, to filling most of the gulf. The 26C+ bulge in the south central Indian Ocean has expanded east-southeastward. The 29C+ zone of the Agulhas Current has shifted from central Mozambique all the way to coastal southeastern South Africa. The warm area, now at a maximum of 14C east of the Lambert Glacier in Antarctica has remained.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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