Mid-Atlantic sets all-time snow records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:15 PM GMT on February 11, 2010

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The second ferocious blizzard in a week to pound the Mid-Atlantic continues to intensify, but has now moved out to sea away from the coast. That's a very good thing, because with a central pressure of 969 mb, the storm is as intense as a Category 1 hurricane. The blizzard brought wind gusts as high as 51 mph at Massachusetts' Nantucket Island last night. The snow has pretty much ended over the Northeastern U.S., but the mighty blizzard dumped 1 - 2 feet of snow over much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with a peak snowfall of 27.5" recorded at Ortanna, Pennsylvania. When combined with the 1 - 2 feet of snow still on the ground from last weekend's blizzard, the snow depths in the Mid-Atlantic are reaching ridiculous proportions. This morning, Baltimore reported 35" of snow on the ground, which would break their previous all-time record of 30" on snow on the ground, set on February 13, 1899. The 19.8" that fell on Baltimore from the blizzard was that city's 10th greatest snowfall on record. Philadelphia's 15.8" was its ninth greatest snowfall. The winter of 2009 - 2010 now has three spots on the top ten all-time heaviest snowfall list for those cities. Record keeping began in the late 1800s, and I'm not aware of any major city in the U.S. that has that many record snowfalls in one winter. If there is, I want to hear about it! Washington D.C.'s 10.8" snowfall from the storm missed making its top ten list of heaviest snows, so that city has only two storms from the winter of 2009 - 2010 on the list. The snow blitz that the Mid-Atlantic has endured with the three record-setting Nor'easters of the 2009 - 2010 is truly a rare event that has no parallel in the historic record.


Figure 1. The Nor'easter of February, 11, 2010 in a infrared satellite image taken at 9:40 pm EST. Image credit: NASA GOES project.

Top 10 snowstorms on record for Philadelphia:

1. 30.7", Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
3. 23.2", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
4. 21.3", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0", Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4", Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9", Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7", Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.8", Feb 10-11, 2010
10. 15.1", Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:

1. 28.2", Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5", Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
4. 22.8", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5", Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0", Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4", Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 20.0", Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 19.5", Feb 10-11, 2010

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:

1. 28.0", Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5", Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7", Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8" Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
5. 17.1", Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7", Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6", Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4", Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4", Feb 7, 1936

Snowiest winter on record for Baltimore, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, Atlantic City, and Wilmington
The snow from this latest blizzard have pushed snow totals for the 2009 - 2010 winter season to a new record for Baltimore, Washington D.C., Wilmington, Philadelphia, and Atlantic City. As of midnight last night, here were the snowfall numbers so far for the 2009 - 2010 winter, and the records they have broken:

Baltimore, MD, 79.9". Old record: 62.5", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Washington D.C. National Airport, 55.9". Old record: 54.4", winter of 1898 - 1899.
Washington Dulles Airport, VA, 75.0". Old record: 61.9", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Wilmington, DE, 66.7". Old record: 55.9", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Philadelphia, PA, 71.6". Old record: 65.5", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Atlantic City, NJ, 49.9". Current record: 46.9", winter of 1966 - 1967.

For comparison, the average snowfall amounts for a season for these cities ranges from 16 - 22". This winter's snowfall amounts are similar to what Anchorage, Alaska and Portland Maine typically receive (about 70"). All this comes with the end of winter still more than a month away--and more snow is likely to fall yet this winter. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models show yet another Nor'easter hitting the D.C./Baltimore/Philadelphia region next Monday. However, next Monday's storm is likely to be much weaker than the last two Nor'easters, with perhaps 2 - 8 inches of snow falling. It is too early to be confident of this prediction, though, and it is possible that the storm will miss.

The extreme amounts of snow on the ground in the Mid-Atlantic will melt only slowly over the coming week, as temperatures are expected to climb only into the low to mid-thirties. That is a good thing, because a sudden thaw could create significant flooding problems. The latest long-range forecast from the GFS model predicts continued below-average temperatures for the mid-Atlantic region for at least the next week, with a possible significant thaw occurring the last week of February.

A new winter storm takes aim at the Deep South
A powerful and fast-moving low pressure system is developing over the Gulf of Mexico today, and will pull in a significant amount of Gulf moisture over the very cold air mass in place over the Deep South today and Friday. A band of moderate snow will develop over Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, bringing 4 - 6" of snow to the southern portions of those states. Florida's Panhandle will see mostly rain, but some snow is expected to mix in, with accumulations around an inch possible in the extreme northwest Panhandle near the Alabama border, away from shore. Among the major cities likely to get 2+ inches of snow are Mobile, Jackson, and Montgomery. The record heaviest snowfalls for those cities are 6", 11.7", and 11", respectively.

Snow avalanches in Afghanistan kill 172
The U.S. isn't the only part of the world with heavy snow problems this winter. Heavy snow in Afghanistan triggered avalanches Monday that killed at least 172 people traveling along the road over 12,700 foot high Salang Pass through the Hindu-Kush Mountains, according to media reports. The death toll makes this avalanche one of the ten deadliest in world history. The ten deadliest world avalanche disasters, as compiled using Scientific American and the book, Natural Disasters and How We Cope, are:

1) 218 B.C. Avalanches decimate Hannibal's army as it crosses the Alps with elephants. Twenty thousand soldiers and many elephants are lost.

2) 1970. The Huascaran Mountain, Peru avalanche of May 31, 1970. A magnitude 8.0 earthquake caused a huge chunk of snow-covered glacier to collapse and roar down the mountain, killing up to 20,000 people.

3) 1916. A series of avalanches during a WW I battle kills at least 10,000 Austrian and Italian soldiers over a 48-hour period. Many of these avalanches were triggered by artillery fire.

4) 1962. Huascaran Mountain, Peru avalanche of January 10, 1962. Avalanches from heavy snows killed up to 4,000.

5) 1618. Plurs, Switzerland: the Rodi avalanche buries the town of Plurs, claiming 2,427 victims. Note: since this avalanche occurred in August, it is likely that is was actually a rock avalanche, and therefore does not belong on this list. Thanks go to Randy Head for pointing out this error that has made it into many Internet locations.

6) 1951. A January avalanche in the Alps' The "Winter of Terror" kills 275.

7) 1991. Bingol, Turkey: an avalanche hits several towns, killing 255 people.

8) 1954. Vovarlberg disaster of January 12, 1954, killed 225 in the Austrian Alps. Nine hours later, a second avalanche killed 115 survivors and rescue workers.

9) 1979. Lahaul Valley, India. A series of avalanches bury the valley, leaving at least 200 victims .

10) 2010. Salang Pass, Afghanistan avalanche kills 166.

The worst avalanche in U.S. history is the Wellington, Washington avalanche of March 1, 1910, which killed 96 people on a train and at a train station.

Jeff Masters

Top Hat (Outdoorsgirl)
Top Hat
Maryland or Alaska?? (katscarb777)
The view coming up our driveway!My dog Cody walking up the driveway!
Maryland or Alaska??
Frosted Forest (CecileWNC)
Frosted Forest

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1122. FLPandhandleJG
4:28 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting BioChemist:
Whats the deal guys, not gonna snow in Pensacola? What happened?


Right now its wait and c.. its hard to predict snow down here in the first place.. but hopefully we might c sum.. might not be alot but atleast its better than nothing if it does happen.. Its very rare to have this, but if we dont get it this time, theres still more winter left.. hey u can always go to DC and Philly and c all that snow and possibility of more coming in the future..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1121. FLPandhandleJG
4:24 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Train Derailed in washington DC..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1120. BioChemist
4:11 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Whats the deal guys, not gonna snow in Pensacola? What happened?
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
1119. FLPandhandleJG
4:10 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
im up to 38, not looking good.. lol
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1117. Xandtar
4:03 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/fullmaps_am.nsf/luFullMap/AC1B5A6CAA344B4B852572F7006610C1/$File/noaa_V O_msr070611.pdf?OpenElement

This picture doesn't tell the whole story. I live on the southwest side of Dominica, some 60-70 miles south by southeast to Montserrat... and I and the rest of the island woke up to a nice dusting of ash on my car, not a heavy accumulation but enough to completely cloud all the glass and make me get a towel to be able to drive. Interestingly enough, the heaviest ash was on the east and south sides of my car, so the ash cloud must have drifted east of Dominica before prevailing winds took it back to me.

Needless to say, when I saw ash all over in the sky and an ashfall on the south side of my car but I couldn't see a volcanic plume that I would have expected from our more southern volcanoes here, I wasn't thinking Monserrat, I was wondering whether Martinique had surprised us all and blown up again.

Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
1116. JGreco
4:03 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Well I have some hope. I've been at work since 3am so when I saw it was still raining I thought the forecast was a bust. When I saw it still was 36 degrees I also saw the forecast was a bust. So that leading edge from Mississippi is what is supposed to produce snow closer to the coast?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
1115. FLPandhandleJG
4:01 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
weather channel reporting snow north of pensacola, fl... hmmm
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1114. IKE
4:00 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Mobile, Alabama (Airport)
Updated: 4 min 18 sec ago
Light Rain
35 °F
Light Rain Snow

Windchill: 27 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 33 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the North
Pressure: 29.89 in (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 217 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1113. Bordonaro
3:59 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
NEW BLOG EVERYONE!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1112. CycloneOz
3:59 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Looks like it's just a bit to warm for snow at PensacolaDoug's.

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3684
1111. NttyGrtty
3:58 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Still just a cold drizzle on the beach. Local radar shows the snow line at ~I-10. Anyone seeing anyhting different?
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 834
1110. biloxidaisy
3:58 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Just went out front at the Beau Rivage. No snow here. Where's my snow!!!??? grrr :)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
1109. IKE
3:57 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Winter Storm Warning
Alert:

...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING... ...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE WARNING AREA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW SPREADS SOUTH.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GENEVA TO DOTHAN TO ALBANY. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING ANY LEFTOVER WATER ON ROADWAYS TO
FREEZE.
EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED IF TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.

Instructions:
Target Area:
Inland Walton
Holmes
Jackson
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1108. BobHodges
3:56 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Down here in Tallahassee, FL...Storm is a little deeper and a bit further south than the 12z ETA run. Bodes well for us here locally, as we stand a better chance of seeing A) no warm air intrusion at any pressure level B) an "extended" period of moisture on the back side of this system.

Going on a limb here...Tallahassee will see a short period of all snow. Won't stick.
1107. FLPandhandleJG
3:56 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I Live in Satsuma,Alabama and it is Snowing. The Flakes are huge I am gonna go take pictures and try to figure out how to download them on the computer and show you all some. Gosh it is so Beautiful. I love it. It is accumulating on the ground i really didn't know if it would stick or not but been watching it and it's starting to turn white on the ground.

Sheri

thats awesome and enjoy!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1106. catastropheadjuster
3:54 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
I Live in Satsuma,Alabama and it is Snowing. The Flakes are huge I am gonna go take pictures and try to figure out how to download them on the computer and show you all some. Gosh it is so Beautiful. I love it. It is accumulating on the ground i really didn't know if it would stick or not but been watching it and it's starting to turn white on the ground.

Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3676
1105. CycloneOz
3:52 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3684
1104. Jedkins01
3:51 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:
I can't find anything saying it is at 997mb now.......i think that is what it is suppose to bottom out at.....but, i can't find it at 997mb now.....where did some of you get that info from.......Please help!



If you go the satellite page for NOAA,(SSD) go to gulf of mexico images, use the loop, and they give products on that page that go along with the satellite, one of them is pressure and fronts, and its putting the low at 997, thats a NWS report.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7440
1103. IKE
3:50 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting mossyhead:
Ike, i have not seen you this excited before. My wife is making fun of me. Of course she is from Minnesota.


I'm wound up on caffeine-light maxwell house....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1102. stormsurge39
3:50 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
It has snowed so much in the last 30 minutes, that we can already make snow angels and have snow ball fights and probably could make a snowman right now! This is wonderful for a southern boy and family. Thanks God
1101. Marlinzfan
3:49 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
How about for Miami-Dade County ? I see there is a wind advisory for the keys and mainland Monroe County, but nothing for Miami-Dade so far. Are the storms not going t be strong here in Miami ? Thanks for any coments
1100. IKE
3:49 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:
I can't find anything saying it is at 997mb now.......i think that is what it is suppose to bottom out at.....but, i can't find it at 997mb now.....where did some of you get that info from.......Please help!


Listed at 997mb's on the NCEP info with satellites.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1099. 850Realtor
3:48 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Does anyone know how much longer it will take for winds to switch to out of N instead of NE in Pensacola?
Member Since: September 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283
1098. IKE
3:48 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
02/12/2010 0917 am

Covington, St Tammany Parish.

Snow e0.0 inch, reported by County official.


Snowflakes the size of quarters reported. Visibility down
to 3/4 of a mile. Light slushy accumulation reported on
cars.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1097. mossyhead
3:47 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting IKE:


YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ike, i have not seen you this excited before. My wife is making fun of me. Of course she is from Minnesota.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
1096. Michfan
3:47 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Jeez...looks like some real heavy stuff is falling around Dothan, AL.



Yeah were getting nailed at Fort Rucker right now. Snowflakes are huge too.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1732
1095. FLPandhandleJG
3:47 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting IKE:


Good news.

sweet
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1094. TampaSpin
3:46 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
I can't find anything saying it is at 997mb now.......i think that is what it is suppose to bottom out at.....but, i can't find it at 997mb now.....where did some of you get that info from.......Please help!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1093. MississippiBoy
3:45 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
snowing in hurley,ms
Member Since: April 6, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 283
1092. IKE
3:45 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting BiloxiIsle:
Although very light, it is snowing in Biloxi!


Good news.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1091. BiloxiIsle
3:44 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Although very light, it is snowing in Biloxi!
Member Since: May 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 153
1090. FLPandhandleJG
3:44 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting IKE:


It better...if it doesn't our forecast is a bust:(


ya it is like a halo here lol..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1089. IKE
3:43 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
959 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2010

...WINTER STORM SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...


.UPDATE...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PRESSURE OF AROUND 1002MB. PARENT
SHORTWAVE HAS ENTERED THE WESTERN GULF WITH A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE TILT. DIVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING. COLD AIR
IS FILTERING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP. MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA HAS TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BEGINNING TO MIX OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. RAIN-
SNOW LINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANDALUSIA
TO DOTHAN TO BLAKELY TO JUST NORTH OF ALBANY.

THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR
OF SHORTLY AFTER THE NOON HOUR BEFORE THE SNOW REACHES THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGHT. SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT WITH THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO
LINGER ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE ENDING.

A COLD RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE BIG BEND...INCLUDING
TALLAHASSEE...FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS.
STILL ANTICIPATING 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH AS
MUCH AS 4 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AND CLOSER TO ONE INCH
ALONG I-10. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TEMPER THE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WARNING AREA
FROM WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
QPF.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1088. TampaSpin
3:43 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Not much doubt where the Surface Low is located!




ORANGE MARKS THE SPOT


Conditions at 42003 as of
(9:50 am EST)
1450 GMT on 02/12/2010: Unit of Measure: English Metric
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 16.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 18.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.1 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1002.1 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -4.0 mb ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 23.5 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 24.9 °C
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1087. Jedkins01
3:41 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
000
FXUS62 KMLB 120830
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...

CURRENT...WATER VAPOR/RUC INIT/ANLYS FIELDS SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX COAST...MOVING A BIT SOUTH OF DUE EAST
ATTM. STRONG 120KT+ H25 JET CORE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
ENEWD ACROSS THE SERN/MID ATLC STATES...AS WELL AS THE NRN HALF OF
FL. SFC LOW PRES CTR (1002MB AND DROPPING) SOUTH OF THE ERN LA COAST
NEAR 26-27N MOVING EWD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD NEXT H24. A ROUGH
CONSENSUS OF THE 96Z NAM AND 00Z GFS/ECM/UKM PLACES THE LOW ABOUT 120
MILES WSW OF TBW BY 18Z...AND ROCKETING TO THE EAST COAST OF FL NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY 00Z (THIS IS ABOUT 250 MILES IN
6HR...OR ABOUT 40+ MPH FWD SPEED). STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DVLPS
AREAWIDE - SLGTLY WEAKER NR LAKE OKEE...WHERE WARM SECTOR MAY NOSE
NWD BRIEFLY BY LATE AFTN...ALLOWING SOME ISOLD FAST MOVG TS TO FORM.
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS FOR SUCH A FAST MOVG SYS...ABOUT 3/4". HAVE KEPT
90% FAR SOUTH/100% ELSEWHERE POP CONFIG FOR THE CWA. TEMPS MAY HAVE
TROUBLE GETTING MUCH ABOVE 50F ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND ARE FCST
AOB 60F NORTH OF MCO-TTS...WITH SOME L70S ACROSS THE FAR SERN CWA
...ASSUMING THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT THERE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FAST MOVING TS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE NEAR THE LAKE....THOUGH FCST
CAPE VALUES ARE BARELY POSITIVE THAT FAR NORTH.

CTRL PRES DROPS BELOW 1000MB AS IT EXITS COAST...WITH STRONG GALE CTR
TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE TNGT. STRONG (ALMOST ENOUGH FOR LAKE WIND ADV
CRITERIA) AND GUSTY WINDS ON TAP FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. EVENING RAINS WILL GET SWEPT RAPIDLY OFFSHORE...AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO SHUT OFF OVER LAND BEFORE TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
WINTER P-TYPE CONCERNS (WHAT STATE IS THIS AGAIN?) WCI VALUES BOTTOM
OUT 29-32F ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWA AROUND SUNRISE SAT...M30S-L40S
ELSEWHERE.



They are forecasting the low to drop below 1000 late tonight, theres one problem, its already down at 997 from the 7 AM obs report! Prepare for wilder weather than expected in central Florida later...
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1086. swampdawg
3:41 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
i want snow too!!
Member Since: July 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 73
1085. IKE
3:40 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


I wonder if that band will stay together and give us sum Ike?


It better...if it doesn't our forecast is a bust:(
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1084. FLPandhandleJG
3:39 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting IKE:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
929 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121900-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
929 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

.NOW...THROUGH 11 AM CST...CURRENTLY THE RAIN SNOW LINE APPEARS TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY TO CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY AND JUST
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER TO OKALOOSA COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW LINE HAS BEEN ORIENTED WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...IT IS
CHANGING ORIENTATION ALONG A DEVELOPING HEAVY SNOW BAND OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS BAND WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE
COURSE OF THE LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER
HOUR ARE NOT OUT THE QUESTION. THOSE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING HEAVY SNOW
AND IT ACCUMULATES QUICKLY. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI BORDER THROUGH 11 AM.


I wonder if that band will stay together and give us sum Ike?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1083. WPBHurricane05
3:38 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Jeez...looks like some real heavy stuff is falling around Dothan, AL.

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1082. IKE
3:37 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
929 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121900-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
929 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

.NOW...THROUGH 11 AM CST...CURRENTLY THE RAIN SNOW LINE APPEARS TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY TO CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY AND JUST
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER TO OKALOOSA COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW LINE HAS BEEN ORIENTED WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...IT IS
CHANGING ORIENTATION ALONG A DEVELOPING HEAVY SNOW BAND OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS BAND WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE
COURSE OF THE LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER
HOUR ARE NOT OUT THE QUESTION. THOSE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING HEAVY SNOW
AND IT ACCUMULATES QUICKLY. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI BORDER THROUGH 11 AM.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1080. AwakeInMaryland
3:36 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
1021. NttyGrtty 2:35 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting code1:
Well to leave from here to go most anywhere on Delta, you have to go through ATL first. ATL canceled most Delta flights last night.

Not true...Memphis, Detroit, Minneapolis all have direct Delta flights from PNS and VPS, plus United, American, and US Air fly snow seekers out of here every hour or so...


Yes, and re PNS, there's flights on Continental and Air Tran, too.

Re Airlines at VPS:

# What Airlines fly out of your airport?

* Delta/ASA, American Eagle, Northwest, US Airways and Continental.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1079. FLPandhandleJG
3:35 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
temp is still rising a bit.. warm lift needs to leave.. lol crestview is still at 37..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1078. TampaSpin
3:35 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
The bigger threat of Snow for Central Florida and the EAst Coast of Central Florida will come later after the LOW passes and the cold air rushes in on the back side tonite.....i think the Melbourne area Northward might get a dusting.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1077. stormsurge39
3:34 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting iluvjess:


Where are you at?
Georgetown Al. about 10 miles south of Citronelle AL. Its coming down hard, my digital camera is broke or i would send yall some pictures!
1076. TampaSpin
3:33 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting IKE:


LOOK!

02/12/2010 0831 am

Citronelle, Mobile County.

Heavy snow e3.5 inch, reported by broadcast media.


Citizen reported live that 3.5 inches was on ground most
of which feel since 7 am CST.



THAT is true GOM effect snow.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1075. quakeman55
3:31 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting IKE:


LOOK!

02/12/2010 0831 am

Citronelle, Mobile County.

Heavy snow e3.5 inch, reported by broadcast media.


Citizen reported live that 3.5 inches was on ground most
of which feel since 7 am CST.

Yeah I saw that on the "Local Snowfall Report" on TWC...I hope we get a taste of some of that heavy snow!
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1074. quakeman55
3:30 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Hey Tim! I think the cold air will be around or the end of February as of right now.. I just see alot of cold air is going plunge down every now and then til that time.. That could b more crazy weather..

Yeah, as long as the NAO is in a negative phase, expect more cold air plunging into the eastern US.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1073. iluvjess
3:30 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
Quoting stormsurge39:
Whewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hoooooooooooooooooo no crow for you my friend it is pouring snow here!!! YEEEEEE HAWWWWWW


Where are you at?
1072. TampaSpin
3:30 PM GMT on February 12, 2010
The LOw is currently at 28N 84W


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.