Snowmageddon storm clobbers the Mid-Atlantic with 2 - 3 feet of snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:08 PM GMT on February 06, 2010

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It's a very white world in the Mid-Atlantic today, where the historic blizzard of 2010 has buried residents under a record-breaking two to three feet of snow. The storm, which President Obama referred to as "Snowmageddon" in a speech before the Democratic National Committee winter meeting, set the all-time record for heaviest snowfall in Delaware history, thanks to the 26.5" that fell in Wilmington (old state record: 25" in the President's Day storm of 2003). "Snowmageddon" dumped the second heaviest at Philadelphia 28.5"), second heaviest at Atlantic City (18.2"), third heaviest at Baltimore (24.8"), and the 4th heaviest at Washington D.C. (17.8"). Several locations in Maryland have seen over three feet of snow, with the northern Washington D.C. suburb of Colesville receiving 40", and the southern Baltimore suburb of Elkridge receiving 38.3". While the blizzard was not an exceptionally strong storm--the central pressure was a rather unimpressive 986 mb at the height of the blizzard, at 9am EST Saturday--it was an exceptionally wet storm. The melted equivalent precipitation for the blizzard exceeded three inches along its core snow belt. That's an phenomenal amount of moisture for a winter storm. The blizzard formed a very unstable region aloft where thunderstorms were able to build, and there were many reports of thundersnow during the height of the storm. These embedded thunderstorms were able to generate very heavy snow bursts of 2 - 3 inches per hour.

A new storm expected to affect the area Tuesday may add to the immense pile of snow on the ground, though the precipitation may partially fall as rain. With only a slow warm up in store for the mid-Atlantic over the next ten days, the snow will stick around for a while. This is a good thing, since a sudden thaw or heavy rain event could generate considerable flooding, if the three inches of precipitation locked in the snow is suddenly released.

Today's blizzard is the second major snowstorm of 16+ inches to affect the Washington D.C./Baltimore region this winter--the other being the 16.4" storm of December 19 - 20. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. Thus, a one-two punch of two major Mid-Atlantic Nor'easters with 16+ inches of snow in one winter is something that should happen only once every 625 years. Such an event has not happened since the beginning of the historical record in 1870. The numbers are even more impressive for Philadelphia, which has had two snowstorms exceeding 23" this winter. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the return period for a 22+ inch snow storm is once every 100 years--and we've had two 100-year snow storms in Philadelphia this winter. That should happen only once every 10,000 years, in today's climate. Of course, the last ice age was just ending around 12,000 years ago, so this probability number has to be viewed with a some skepticism. Still, the two huge snowstorms this winter in the Mid-Atlantic are definitely a very rare event one should see only once every few hundred years.


Figure 1. "Snowmageddon", the Nor'easter of February 5 - 6, just off the Mid-Atlantic coast, at 12:01 pm EST Saturday 2/6/10. Image credit: NASA GOES project.

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:

1. 28.2", Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5", Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8", Feb 5-6, 2010
4. 22.8", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5", Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0", Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4", Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0", Dec 19-20, 2009
9. 20.0", Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 16.0", Mar 15-18, 1892

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:

1. 28.0", Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5", Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7", Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8" Feb 5-6, 2010
5. 17.1", Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7", Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6", Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4", Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4", Feb 7, 1936

Top 9 snowstorms for Philadelphia:

1. 30.7", Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5", Feb 5-6, 2010
3. 23.2", Dec 19-20, 2009
4. 21.3", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0", Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4", Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9", Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7", Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.1", Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941

I'll have a new blog on Monday, when I'll discuss if record snow storms are inconsistent with a world experiencing warming. Have a great Super Bowl weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

cleaning up the cars (chills)
cleaning up the cars
Blizzard 2010 (TonyInDC)
Blizzard  2010
winter scenic (gingyb)
From the looks of the cars we may never dig out.
winter scenic
Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow. (Proserpina)
Hubby tried to use the snow-blower to clear the snow, unfortunately for him the snow is too deep for the snow-blower. The shovel and his arms will have to do the job.
Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow.

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Quoting SouthALWX:

hopefully technology will have advanced in a way to negate any NEO from impacting in any disastrous or life extinguishing way by that time. certainly a race against an unknown clock
Talking about funding science.
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I'm back posting what I normally post on here.
No more AGW/CC talk from me. Period.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Correct, the next big one is out there, just waiting for us.

hopefully technology will have advanced in a way to negate any NEO from impacting in any disastrous or life extinguishing way by that time. certainly a race against an unknown clock
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Quoting SouthALWX:

I have no problem with planting trees. Have at it if you want. And I agree, chopping massive forests would only serve to increase C02 a study should be done to see to what extent, for sure. Im not trying to be argumentative, just realistic. We know greenhouse gases trap heat energy, the question becomes then can the Earth balance our efforts? How much C02 makes a difference? What will the effects be if we have any? Are they bad? Would a warmer Earth be better a supporting a growing population? there are far more questions than answers
You will be surprised that there are studys covering your concerns already.
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'Snowmageddon' kills 2 in US

A huge blizzard dumped a blanket of thick snow over the US east coast, paralysing the region and snapping power lines to thousands of people as hazardous roads killed at least two.

The monster storm, dubbed "Snowpocalypse" and "Snowmageddon", stretched thousands of miles from eastern Indiana into Pennsylvania and then down through Maryland as far south as North Carolina.

With winds gusting at almost 90 kilometres per hour, many places had already accumulated more than 60 centimetres of snow by late on Saturday morning, as trees toppled bringing down power lines and barring roads.

Even US President Barack Obama awoke to find 10 inches covering the White House, and his flashy motorcade, which usually speeds through the capital, was seen moving very slowly on empty Washington streets after he gave a speech to his Democratic Party.

Forecasters warned residents to hunker down, with no let-up in the weather for most of the day. They predicted a record-breaking, historic total snowfall in some places of 36 inches.

"It's pretty rough out there," Ed McDonough from the Maryland Emergency Management Agency said.

"The roads are very difficult to travel...and we are seeing a spike in power outages. We are telling local residents to stay home, enjoy the time with their families and let the highway crews do their work."

Emergency crews struggled to repair the power outages, which have left 150,000 people in the dark and under blankets at home in Maryland alone.

"We have a lot of scattered outages and the road conditions are not really working with us," admitted Pepco spokesman Andre Francis, pleading for patience as some customers were told the blackouts could last days.

Some 200 National Guardsmen had been deployed across Maryland, while in Virginia police confirmed that a father and son were killed on Friday when they stopped to help a stranded car.

"Virginia state police are working numerous traffic crashes and responding to multiple disabled vehicles as the winter storm makes its way across" the state, the police said in a statement.

In the normally bustling capital, the streets had been transformed into a deserted winter wonderland on Saturday as workers with snow-blowers struggled to clear the sidewalks.

But some people were enjoying the city's transformation.

Alix Lawe, who works with the US Air Force, was out for a run in the snow, said: "It's so fun. I'm from Florida, I've never seen so much snow."

And a German woman, was also out exercising wearing snowshoes, after she failed to buy cross-country skis as they were all sold out.

"I was being paranoid staying at home," she said, casually sipping coffee.

Snow ploughs were out trying to keep emergency routes and main highways clear, but most officials said it would take days to reach the smaller streets, and warned of a difficult Monday morning commute.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has put the Washington-Baltimore metropolitan area under a rare 24-hour blizzard warning.

All flights out of the capital's Reagan National airport were cancelled, along with most flights out of Dulles International Airport in Virginia, while there was a limited service at Baltimore.

A hangar roof collapsed at the Dulles Jet Centre early on Saturday according to Rob Yengling, Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority spokesman. Five people spending the night inside to shelter from the storm escaped without injuries.

The snowfall may shatter Washington's 88-year-old record snowfall of 28 inches in the 1922 "Great Knickerbocker Storm," when the Knickerbocker Theatre collapsed killing nearly 100 people.

The capital's subway system has shut down 40 above ground stations, meaning transport links between Washington and its heavily-populated suburbs were snapped with most major roads impassable, knocking out bus services.

The governors of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware have declared states of emergency, a move that puts the National Guard on alert. While in Delaware all vehicles were ordered off the roads.

But some people were preparing to enjoy the winter's second biggest storm in the area, with plans for a mass snowball fight in central Washington shaping up.

- AFP
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NSW storms leave trail of destruction

Emergency crews and residents across Sydney will soon begin cleaning up in the wake of severe thunderstorms which left a trail of damage last night.

A severe thunderstorm warning is currently in place for the Northern Rivers and parts of the mid-north coast.

Emergency services received more than 1,000 calls for assistance as flash flooding hit Sydney's northern suburbs late in the evening.

Crews were called to a range of incidents, including flooded basements, overflowing drains and leaking roofs, and rescue officers evacuated 11 residents from a nursing home in Normanhurst after the ground floor flooded.

New South Wales Fire Brigade superintendent Ken Murphy says there have been no reports of injury but crews were kept busy.

"Saturday night has been one of the busiest nights for storm damage and flooding for the brigade for several years," he said.

State Emergency Services controller for the Richmond-Tweed area, Jeff Spash, says crews have been trying to reach a woman in labour who is isolated by flood waters near Upper Wilson's Creek.

The weather bureau says a minor flood warning for the Tweed River remains in effect.

Superintendent Murphy says the storm clean-up will begin early today.

"This morning there'll be a full assessment done by the State Emergency Service (SES) of the damage and any additional work will be undertaken by the SES, NSW Fire Brigades and some other agencies as well," he said.

New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally has praised emergency crews and transport operators for keeping people safe during the flash flooding.

"What we have seen over the past few days is our emergency services personnel, our SES volunteers, and indeed our public transport staff are able to keep people moving around the city, keep people and infrastructure safe - even with the difficult weather we've been experiencing," she said.

Motorists are advised to take extreme care on Sydney's roads this morning due to slippery conditions and reduced visibility.

The Sydney Catchment Authority says the rainfall has been the best the area has seen for more than two years.

The authority's general manager Ian Tanner says it has been a long time since there was enough rain to significantly increase dam levels.

"It goes over two years back to June 2007, our dams rose 18 per cent back then, we went from a very low 37 per cent to 55 per cent, so that was a very very good event and we're hoping this one will pan out in the same way," he said.

Meanwhile, farmers in drought-ravaged parts of far-western New South Wales say the rain has improved the outlook for the upcoming season.

Up to 50 millimetres of rain has fallen over Ivanhoe, Booligal and Balranald, while some areas near Hay have received more than 120 millimetres.

New South Wales Farmers Association spokesman Graham Morphett says the rain has brought welcome relief to those on the land.

"It's been the worst year this year for the last 10 years," he said.

"The response is just very upbeat, particularly with fantastic lamb and mutton prices, that gives us all heart [that] the lambs that will hit the ground, will fatten up and we'll be able to start a cash flow that's been very negative for the last eight years."

But Mr Morphett says farmers in many regions, including parts of the Riverina, still need more rain to fall.

"We need two or three of these events, but more importantly we need them over the Murrumidgee, the Lachlan, the Murray catchments. And I believe that this rainfall hasn't really fell over those [areas]," he said.

"So yes it's done a fantastic job in western New South Wales and central New South Wales but definitely it's not the breaking of the drought."

- ABC
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223. Skyepony (Mod)
A total of 4.9 million people are facing water shortages in southwestern Yunnan Province as drought continues to ravage south China, according to the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

The drought had affected 22.43 million Mu (3.84 million hectares) of crops, including 15.37 million Mu in serious damage and 3.85 million Mu withered as of Friday, Zhang Zhitong, deputy head of the Office of the headquarters.

The drought also threatened water supply for 3.34 million heads of livestock, according to the latest statistics from the headquarters.

Yunnan has mobilized 6.4 million people to fight the drought, Zhang said.

The headquarters urged authorities in drought-hit areas including Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Chongqing and Sichuan to step up efforts in fighting drought and ensure water supply for people and agricultural uses.

Source: Xinhua
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Queensland storms turn deadly

A 14-year-old boy was killed near Toowoomba overnight as torrential rain causes flash flooding across south-east Queensland.

A severe weather warning for flash flooding between Brisbane and the NSW border has been issued, with parts of the region receiving more than 350 millimetres of rain in a few hours.

Emergency services say the teenager was killed when the vehicle he was travelling in was washed away in floodwaters on Black Duck Creek Road, at Junction View, at about 8:30pm (AEST) yesterday.

All three people in the car got out, but the boy did not make it to safety. His body was found downstream shortly before midnight.

Emergency services say there have been four other rescues since the heavy rain began and more than 170 calls for help across the region.

Police are urging motorists not to drive through flooded water.

Emergency crews have also been kept busy sandbagging and making temporary repairs to roofs.

The weather bureau's Gavin Holcolmbe says some creeks have flooded.

"There's certainly been a lot of river rises around the area, especially between about Brisbane and the New South Wales border," he said.

"We've had a flood warning out for that area."

Mr Holcolmbe says the heaviest rain has been on the Gold Coast, while other areas had falls of about 100 millimetres.

"Clagiraba Road has had 372 millimetres, Mount Tamborine 355 millimetres, Canungra 337 millimetres, Lower Springbrook's had 266 millimetres," he said.

"So there's been quite a deal of rain about that part of the Gold Coast.

Mr Holcolmbe says the rain is expected to ease later this morning.

- ABC
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Quoting AussieStorm:
BBL

drg0dOwnCountry you need to go to bed, your not making sense now, or you need to learn to spell.
Earth will exist with or without us. It is in our hands to prevent an uninhabitale planet.
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Torrential rain wreaks havoc

Authorities are continuing to rescue several people from floodwaters across southern Queensland, with parts of the region receiving more than 400 millimetres of rain.

The torrential rain has already claimed one life and a severe weather warning for between Brisbane and the New South Wales border has been issued as the downpour causes flash flooding and swollen rivers.

Areas around Brisbane have had more than 100 millimetres in the past 24 hours, while some parts of the Gold Coast have had more than 400 millimetres.

A 14-year-old disabled boy was killed near Toowoomba overnight when the vehicle he was in was washed away in floodwaters on Black Duck Creek Road at Junction View about 8:30pm (AEST).

His body was found downstream shortly before midnight.

Some boats have broken their moorings in the Nerang and Coomera rivers, while a large cruiser ripped its pontoon away and is wedged under a bridge on the M1.

Several major roads are cut on the Gold Coast and many parked cars have been submerged up to their roofs.

Emergency crews say there have been five rescues of people trying to drive across flooded roads.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Service Acting Inspector Scott Beasley says crews have performed nine rescues in total.

"We try and warn people not to drive into water, not to go across creek crossings, but it continually happens," he said.

Weather bureau forecaster Gavin Holcombe says the heaviest falls have passed.

"The cause of the rain has been a development of an upper low system over the south-east inland of the state," he said.

"This was indicated a few days ago and the fact that we would be on Saturday night and Sunday morning going into showers and rain areas with some moderate to heavy falls around.

"That has certainly occurred overnight. The heaviest falls have basically been over the Gold Coast."

In New South Wales, a severe thunderstorm warning is in place for the Northern Rivers and parts of the mid-north coast.

There has also been flash flooding around the Tweed River at Murwillumbah.

The weather bureau says the river has peaked but flash flooding is still occurring downstream.

Sydney residents are also cleaning up after wild storms caused flash flooding in parts of the city overnight, prompting more than 1,000 calls for assistance.

- ABC
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Quoting bassis:


If you believe the astronomy comunity (and I do) it's not if, but when

Correct, the next big one is out there, just waiting for us.
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I'm sick of this... I've been a lurker and occasional poster on this blog for five years now, and the topic of this particular one is the rather horrid snowstorm that's just hit and is affecting the lives of millions of people, almost none of it in a good way.

So I come here to read what people have to say about that, especially in the affected areas, and all I see is this constant crud about Global Warming this and Global Warming that, and I'm sick of it.

Save it for one of Dr. Master's many blogs about GW, when all your comments are warranted, if not valued. Otherwise, just shut up about it for now, as people are suffering, and in harm's way, and the high costs of this latest assault by Mother Nature is still raking everyone over the coals.

Do you all have any compassion to go with your massive intellectual egos? I hope so, but I've been doubting it more and more as these last two blogs have gone on.

Jo
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Humans are contributing to that cycle, and we haven't seen even the worst of the natural cycle, therefore global warming is dangerous and needs to be addressed.

Next!


NEXT?????
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Where is this overwhelming evidence? you mean the facts from sources that have come into question on there validity? the sources that filled in the blanks from sources 100's of miles away?


The evidence was right outside, but we forgot to look out the window while too busy debating.

168:

And Canada's the one doing the most to stall climate talks right now...
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
BBL

drg0dOwnCountry you need to go to bed, your not making sense now, or you need to learn to spell.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Here's a thought, How about everyone on this blog, Plant 10 trees in there local reserve/park. The more trees there are the less CO2 in the air.

has there ever been a study or a report on the effect that the deforestation of the Amazon rain forest, Indonesian rain forests has had on world climate?

I have no problem with planting trees. Have at it if you want. And I agree, chopping massive forests would only serve to increase C02 a study should be done to see to what extent, for sure. Im not trying to be argumentative, just realistic. We know greenhouse gases trap heat energy, the question becomes then can the Earth balance our efforts? How much C02 makes a difference? What will the effects be if we have any? Are they bad? Would a warmer Earth be better a supporting a growing population? there are far more questions than answers
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Quoting AussieStorm:

It is when we get close to the asteroid belt.


If you believe the astronomy comunity (and I do) it's not if, but when
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Doesn't El Nino and La Nina, NOA, MJO, ect ect go in Cycles. To me this is all it is, one big Cycle.

Now on ya bike mate. Don't post to me until you put your money where your mouth is.


Humans are contributing to that cycle, and we haven't seen even the worst of the natural cycle, therefore global warming is dangerous and needs to be addressed.

Next!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting AussieStorm:

WHAT?????
Yes, this is a global problem. Europe - who ever can have 0 emission, want help if other countrys not adapt aswell. And there is a threshold - around maybe 2015 or earlyer if we even had 0 emission, it want matter. Some scientist even think we have reached this threshold. And talking bout doomsayers, i post those very little ...
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OMG Warren Sapp is a wife beater........
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I'm off to make pan-cakes for my kids. I'll be using natural gas not electric. Little bit less CO2 emissions.
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Quoting Ossqss:
151. AstroHurricane001 You don't need credentials to edit Wikipedia.

Darn it, got me again. That was my point, it had no credentials or source. I really gotta go and stop reading this stuff. Real gone this time >>>> :)



You're supposed to cite all significant statements, however.

Quoting atmoaggie:

It is interesting how little we know about the causes of the teens to 40s warm up. Clearly was not CO2, or any of the effects listed in that plot. And the current knowledge of the natural cycles doesn't fully explain it, either.


What about solar activity? Link

Quoting BahaHurican:
This reminds me of Hurricane Agnes [1972] which, as a mere tropical storm, devastated the Susquehana valley and other parts of PA. In most parts of the Caribbean, the Bahamas, and even FL, Agnes would have been viewed as relatively normal summer weather.

Guess it's not just WHAT the storm is, but WHERE the storm is also.... :o)
Same with the recent winter storms. I'm getting jealous that all the snow is getting pushed to the States by the cold air and here in S. Ontario we have very little snow!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


Aussie ... we want make it without your help...

WHAT?????
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Quoting bassis:
you know your right. astroids hitting the earth and wiping out life is cyclical. Just ask the dinosaurs

It is when we get close to the asteroid belt.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

do you mean trust or thrust, the only thrusting i do is in the bedroom or on the dance floor.
Aussie ... we want make it without your help...
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Quoting bassis:
you know your right. astroids hitting the earth and wiping out life is cyclical. Just ask the dinosaurs
Well it IS.... haven't u seen the show about It Could Happen Tomorrow????
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Goodnight, all. Astro, CHANGE THE TOPIC!!! LOL

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
you know your right. astroids hitting the earth and wiping out life is cyclical. Just ask the dinosaurs
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Why not read it? Or why not thrust 1000 of studys from people who do this for a living? You thrust icecore data on glaciation from 75000 years ago, but refuse to thrust the same icecores which contain Co2 data. Makes not much sense, does it????

do you mean trust or thrust, the only thrusting i do is in the bedroom or on the dance floor.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening everybody.

I think this is prolly the best argument for what's happening globally to be termed a "climate shift" rather than "warming". The problem for humanity is not directly the warming, but the shifts in established climate patterns that will create problems in the long term. If all the snow that is supposed to fall in the Great Lakes area falls 600 miles south, and especially if there is no replacement for that moisture in time for planting season, wouldn't that have an impact on food production et al over time?

These are the questions we need to be concentrating on: not whether there is a shift taking place (I think most pple would agree that climate shift is a part of life on earth) or whether people caused it, but WHAT shifts are taking place? how will those changes impact human life, society, and civilization? what, if anything, can be done to minimize negative impacts on people worldwide?


Steps of human-induced climatic warming:

1. Human activity increases CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere
2. Global warming due to CO2 is predicted
3. Global warming is observed
4. Environmental movement begins
5. Warming is attributed to anthropogenic causes
5. Fluctuations in climate take place
7. Severe weather events possibly linked to global warming are observed
8. Species extinction due to climatic factors increase
9. Political lobbyists and oil companies plot how to undermine the data
11. Deaths directly due to climate-related factors increase
12. Climate change science receives more scientific funding
13. Ice shelf collapses and glacial retreats take place
14. Oil companies merge and form a giant coalition
15. More dire predictions are made by climate scientists in a series of warnings
16. IPCC releases assessment reports
17. Extremes of climate increase in intensity and frequency
18. More complex climate forcings are revealed
19. Positive feedback scenarios proposed
20. Lobbyists influence global Conservative governments
21. Tipping points in global climate are predicted and begin to pass
22. Political lobbyists control government of the US
23. Global warming increases in temperature start to become level
24. Public opinion on climate change is muddled
25. Wars over oil and those related to climate change take place
26. A hurricane in Brazil and temporary stalling of the Gulf Stream are observed
27. Methane and CO2 releases from permafrost observed
28. Intense storms develop and kill thousands of people worldwide
29. Global warming skepticism increases
30. Arctic sea ice reaches unpredicted and unprecedented low
31. Global economic recession hits
32. Many global conferences are held to minimize effects of global warming but fail due to lobbysists
33. Public concern over global warming dwindles
34. Methane clathrate releases not expected to occur until the end of the century are observed in multiple locations
35. A self-reinforcing El Nino cycle takes place in the Pacific Ocean
36. Global protests for climate action take place during Copenhagen Conference
37. Skeptical hackers create email hacking incident
38. Copenhagen Conference fails to produce a real goal
39. Environmental activism increases
40. Storms cause widespread expansion and subsequent weakening of El Nino warm pool
41. El Nino pattern spawns severe winter storms over the US, Europe, East Asia and India
42. Global warming skepticism increases due to cold weather
43. Gulf Stream temporarily stalls and breaks into loops
44. Humboldt Current temporarily bisected by southeast extension of El Nino warm pool
45. Hundreds of people are killed by winter storms in Europe
46. Flooding takes place in Brazil due to warm water
47. Gulf Stream temporarily diverts west of Greenland for first time in satellite history
48. Floods occur in Middle east due to European storms
49. Gulf Stream diverts west of Greenland again
50. Floods occur in Peru due to El Nino
51. Pine Island Bay tipping point revealed
52. Hurricane-like storms develop over Gulf Stream in a gyre-free Atlantic Ocean
53. El Nino warm pool expands toward Antarctica
54. Warm anomalies enter Pine Island Bay and the two major Antarctic Ice Shelves
55. More major storms hit the US and develop over the North Atlantic

WHERE WE ARE AT NOW

A sort of simplicified version of global warming-related effects to date.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting SouthALWX:
wow... Look @ what I've walked into ... Not much I can say about that except ... I find alot of times when we have two extreme opinions the answers are in the middle. If you think the world will end for AGW you're nuts .. if you think CO2 cant trap longwave radiation .. you're nuts ... Sure we effect the climate to some degree... If you don't think we can, blow up the world's nuclear arsenal and see what happens to weather ... How about we start trying to determin that % rather than pointing and saying I'm right you're wrong ... If you want to be oblivious to science mk if you want to spout end of the world get a sheet of cardboard and stand on a street corner like the other crazies .... I personally think the effects of C02 will be limited to small insignificant effects but we dont really know so let's figure it out shall we?


Here's a thought, How about everyone on this blog, Plant 10 trees in there local reserve/park. The more trees there are the less CO2 in the air.

Also has there ever been a study or a report on the effect that the deforestation of the Amazon rain forest, Indonesian rain forests has had on world climate?
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Hey, atmo, I'm wondering how much that Biblical "forecast" about "wars, rumours of wars, and earthquakes in divers places" was based on an actual INCREASE in these events and how much of it was based on improved news reporting.... :o)

It looks like the effect of the "Snowmaggedon" storm locally has been limited to some rain early this morning..... It's interesting to watch it impact that big beauty of a NATL storm that's making its way towards Europe.... Anyway, I think I'll go to bed now.... May get up early and go out to the coast to take some photos tomorrow....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Sigh. What is with the 3% contribution MYTH? No, people have put more CO2 into the atmosphere in 200 years than the Holocene climate has added in 19,800 years after the peak of the last ice age.


Thank You... but I'm just the idiot that beleaves global warming is actually happening..... the 800 lb elephant in the room... lets be for real... we won't be around but it's our prob....
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172. AstroHurricane001\

Solar activity has been strongly correlated with temperature change for 10,000 years, but that correlation ended in the mid-1970s, and CO2 forcing took over.

What? OK, take the Sun away, and 99+% of the required energy . Now what? Did you read what you typed?

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Penn State inquiry finds no evidence for allegations against Michael Mann
"Hockey Stick" scientist vindicated once again


http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/04/penn-state-michael-mann-hockey-stick-science/



Not exactly --

Inquiry into climate scientist moves to next phase

I knew I should not have pit stopped and looked :(
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Quoting AussieStorm:


How did they work that out????
I don't know any 15million year old people or of any existing. Oh tell me how please.
Why not read it? Or why not thrust 1000 of studys from people who do this for a living? You thrust icecore data on glaciation from 75000 years ago, but refuse to thrust the same icecores which contain Co2 data. Makes not much sense, does it????
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This is actually a fairly concise summary! Kudos!

My main concern with the current "debate" is that not enough data is being collected / studied / evaluated for us to develop more effecient theories about earth cycles.

To use the dinasaurs as an example, if it was an earth "cycle" that killed them off, their problem was less the cycle itself and, quite likely, more their inability to adapt to the cycle.... get my drift?


we( the human race) are an adaptive lot.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


How did they work that out????
I don't know any 15million year old people or of any existing. Oh tell me how please.

Floodman was there and kept a sample in his bong...
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wow... Look @ what I've walked into ... Not much I can say about that except ... I find alot of times when we have two extreme opinions the answers are in the middle. If you think the world will end for AGW you're nuts .. if you think CO2 cant trap longwave radiation .. you're nuts ... Sure we effect the climate to some degree... If you don't think we can, blow up the world's nuclear arsenal and see what happens to weather ... How about we start trying to determin that % rather than pointing and saying I'm right you're wrong ... If you want to be oblivious to science mk if you want to spout end of the world get a sheet of cardboard and stand on a street corner like the other crazies .... I personally think the effects of C02 will be limited to small insignificant effects but we dont really know so let's figure it out shall we?
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

You seem to thrust icecore data.

Last time carbon dioxide levels were this high: 15 million years ago


How did they work that out????
I don't know any 15million year old people or of any existing. Oh tell me how please.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
During the past few decades, researchers have established the existence of a climate system on Earth that is characterized by complex integration and feedback. The sun and all the parts of the Earth - the oceans, the atmosphere, the land masses, the snow and ice masses, all life, and the inner earth - are parts of this system. Changes in any one part of the system affect all the others and ultimately result in climate change. Climate change is actually a continuous process, but in the past the changes have ranged from the slow and gradual to the surprisingly fast and dramatic. This much we have learned about the climate system; but beyond this we are less knowledgeable.
This is actually a fairly concise summary! Kudos!

My main concern with the current "debate" is that not enough data is being collected / studied / evaluated for us to develop more effecient theories about earth cycles.

To use the dinasaurs as an example, if it was an earth "cycle" that killed them off, their problem was less the cycle itself and, quite likely, more their inability to adapt to the cycle.... get my drift?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. I skimmed just about everything (stopped reading around post #100 - couldn't take anymore) and I am amazed at the "bickering" tone of almost everything that got posted since the new blog started. I don't think evrybody who is posting is trying to bicker, but everybody is hectoring, preaching, being didactic, call it what u will. I found the doc's comments and the post he responded to interesting because they expanded my understanding of the science. Just about everything else from both sides was partisan as all get out. We had a few reasonable questions here and there, but they have gotten muffled in the debate/debacle.

I suggest - STRONGY - that all the people posting for / against AGW or climate change or whatever u are calling it need to take a 24 hiatus from any further discussion of the topic on this blog. It has become a total waste of everybody's time, including your own, and it's not edifying either readers or posters. Isn't the SuperBowl tomorrow? Why not take a break, watch the game, sleep, look up (but DO NOT POST!) further data to support your viewpoint.

But for goodness' sake! Give the rest of us A BREAK!!!!!


Sounds great to me. It has been truly lame in here as of late.
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Quoting stribe37:


Seems to me you just ignored the entire report he quoted.

Not surprising; Austalians seem to be right up there with a lot of Americans and folks in our oil-producing province of Alberta in Canada as the chief global warming/climate change deniers in the world, who will grasp at any dissenting report they see as an excuse not to do anything about climate change, or ignore any report that tells them otherwise with studies like the one funded in the Canadian Arctic.




were people claiming Global cooling when the NW passage become closed in 1492?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

How many more times do I have to say, its a CYCLE, at the moment we are in the warming part of the Cycle, 75,000 years ago the earth was in the cooling part of the cycle. It has been shown with ice-core research.

You seem to thrust icecore data.

Last time carbon dioxide levels were this high: 15 million years ago, scientists report
"The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland," said the paper's lead author, Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA assistant professor in the department of Earth and space sciences and the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences.

"Carbon dioxide is a potent greenhouse gas, and geological observations that we now have for the last 20 million years lend strong support to the idea that carbon dioxide is an important agent for driving climate change throughout Earth's history," she said.

By analyzing the chemistry of bubbles of ancient air trapped in Antarctic ice, scientists have been able to determine the composition of Earth's atmosphere going back as far as 800,000 years, and they have developed a good understanding of how carbon dioxide levels have varied in the atmosphere since that time. But there has been little agreement before this study on how to reconstruct carbon dioxide levels prior to 800,000 years ago.
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/last-time-carbon-dioxide-levels-111074.aspx

Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years
The carbon dioxide (CO2) content of the atmosphere has varied cyclically between ~180 and ~280 parts per million by volume over the past 800,000 years, closely coupled with temperature and sea level. For earlier periods in Earth’s history, the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is much less certain, and the relation between pCO2 and climate remains poorly constrained. We use boron/calcium ratios in foraminifera to estimate pCO2 during major climate transitions of the past 20 million years. During the Middle Miocene, when temperatures were ~3° to 6°C warmer and sea level was 25 to 40 meters higher than at present, pCO2 appears to have been similar to modern levels. Decreases in pCO2 were apparently synchronous with major episodes of glacial expansion during the Middle Miocene (~14 to 10 million years ago) and Late Pliocene (~3.3 to 2.4 million years ago).
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1178296
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Quoting AussieStorm:
During the past few decades, researchers have established the existence of a climate system on Earth that is characterized by complex integration and feedback. The sun and all the parts of the Earth - the oceans, the atmosphere, the land masses, the snow and ice masses, all life, and the inner earth - are parts of this system. Changes in any one part of the system affect all the others and ultimately result in climate change. Climate change is actually a continuous process, but in the past the changes have ranged from the slow and gradual to the surprisingly fast and dramatic. This much we have learned about the climate system; but beyond this we are less knowledgeable.


No one is going to quote against this?????
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. I skimmed just about everything (stopped reading around post #100 - couldn't take anymore) and I am amazed at the "bickering" tone of almost everything that got posted since the new blog started. I don't think evrybody who is posting is trying to bicker, but everybody is hectoring, preaching, being didactic, call it what u will. I found the doc's comments and the post he responded to interesting because they expanded my understanding of the science. Just about everything else from both sides was partisan as all get out. We had a few reasonable questions here and there, but they have gotten muffled in the debate/debacle.

I suggest - STRONGY - that all the people posting for / against AGW or climate change or whatever u are calling it need to take a 24 hiatus from any further discussion of the topic on this blog. It has become a total waste of everybody's time, including your own, and it's not edifying either readers or posters. Isn't the SuperBowl tomorrow? Why not take a break, watch the game, sleep, look up (but DO NOT POST!) further data to support your viewpoint.

But for goodness' sake! Give the rest of us A BREAK!!!!!



my feeling exactly. I only made a comment cause I couldn't take anymore and had a lot of trouble holding my feeling in.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

How many more times do I have to say, its a CYCLE, at the moment we are in the warming part of the Cycle, 75,000 years ago the earth was in the cooling part of the cycle. It has been shown with ice-core research.


Seems to me you just ignored the entire report he quoted.

Not surprising; it seems there are a lot of Austalians seem to be right up there with a lot of Americans and folks in our oil-producing province of Alberta in Canada as the chief global warming/climate change deniers in the world, who will grasp at any dissenting report they see as an excuse not to do anything about climate change, or ignore any report that tells them otherwise with studies like the one funded in the Canadian Arctic.

Unfortunate, because I like what you normally post on here.. but in this point, I strongly and respectfully disagree with your stance. Doing nothing here(or in the case of Canada's Conservative government, as little as possible) is not or should not be an option.



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Wow. I skimmed just about everything (stopped reading around post #100 - couldn't take anymore) and I am amazed at the "bickering" tone of almost everything that got posted since the new blog started. I don't think evrybody who is posting is trying to bicker, but everybody is hectoring, preaching, being didactic, call it what u will. I found the doc's comments and the post he responded to interesting because they expanded my understanding of the science. Just about everything else from both sides was partisan as all get out. We had a few reasonable questions here and there, but they have gotten muffled in the debate/debacle.

I suggest - STRONGY - that all the people posting for / against AGW or climate change or whatever u are calling it need to take a 24 hiatus from any further discussion of the topic on this blog. It has become a total waste of everybody's time, including your own, and it's not edifying either readers or posters. Isn't the SuperBowl tomorrow? Why not take a break, watch the game, sleep, look up (but DO NOT POST!) further data to support your viewpoint.

But for goodness' sake! Give the rest of us A BREAK!!!!!

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting atmoaggie:

Good. Some places really would have a problem with that much rainfall...

The mudslides in California come immediately to mind.

In the Blue Mountains west of Sydney there was 3 landslips which 1 slightly blocked the main train line west but all caused little infrastructure damage.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

How many more times do I have to say, its a CYCLE
Your opinion against the biggest study on arctic sea ice. Just, wow Aussie.
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btwntx08

Thanks for that link you posted. I asked for one yesterday but no one heard me
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During the past few decades, researchers have established the existence of a climate system on Earth that is characterized by complex integration and feedback. The sun and all the parts of the Earth - the oceans, the atmosphere, the land masses, the snow and ice masses, all life, and the inner earth - are parts of this system. Changes in any one part of the system affect all the others and ultimately result in climate change. Climate change is actually a continuous process, but in the past the changes have ranged from the slow and gradual to the surprisingly fast and dramatic. This much we have learned about the climate system; but beyond this we are less knowledgeable.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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