Interesting hybrid low set to drench Spain's Canary Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on February 01, 2010

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An interesting 1002 mb low pressure system with some characteristics of a tropical storm has developed off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Canary Islands. An ASCAT pass from last night revealed top winds of 40 mph near the center, so the low is probably near tropical storm strength. This low is moving east-northeast towards the Canaries, and will likely bring sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph, to the islands tonight. The storm formed over the weekend from an isolated cold-cored low that was wandering over the Atlantic, and phase space analyses from Florida State University revealed that the low developed a partial warm core over the weekend. A respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has built near the storm's center, characteristic of a tropical storm. The low is over cool 21 - 22°C water, far colder than the typical 26°C needed for a tropical storm to form. These SSTs are about 1 - 2°C warmer than usual for this time of year. Wind shear is marginal for tropical storm formation, about 20 knots. The comma-shaped structure of the storm's spiral bands is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone, and it is pretty unlikely that NHC will view this hybrid storm as being sufficiently tropical to warrant naming it a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. The low is headed towards colder waters of 20°C that lie near the Canary Islands, and the system should become less tropical today.


Figure 1. Hybrid 1002 mb low approaches the Canary Islands, in this visible METEOSAT image from 7am EST 2/1/10.

You can use our wundermap for the Canary Islands to watch the storm roll through the islands. There are two web cams to watch (currently showing thick clouds) that might be interesting. EUMETSAT satellite images loops will also be interesting.

Next post
My next post will be Tuesday (Groundhog's Day), when I plan to discuss Punxsutawney Phil's forecast for the rest of winter. I'll throw in my two cents worth, too.

Jeff Masters

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340. meteoxico
12:04 PM GMT on February 05, 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HdV9lAOlW4

here it is the link to the video that resumes the subtropical storms evolution.
the storm hit hit madeira and canarias islands very hard and southern portugal/SE spain more softly.
in madeira some unofficial stations reported 200-300mm in 24h!
here in lisbon we had only some showers/periods of rain with totals up to 10-15mm
339. transitzone
9:09 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:

Thanks for being nice about that...

BTW, you race SCCA? My dad runs in La, and at Memphis, Road Atlanta, Watkins Glen (I think).

What are most 19 year-olds adequately prepared for, anyway? Anything?
(Sry, tdude)

F&C for SCCA. This weekend is PCA, where I'm safety & operations steward and driving instructor. The aggies that grew up on farms and ranches are generally prepared for weather, the rest not so much
Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
338. Floodman
4:22 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
You were accurate with the time also, it lasted about five days. How is the back doing?


Good...just back from a brisk 1 mile walk...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
337. hydrus
4:03 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Floodman:


As is mine...still not 100% but it's becoming increasing obvious that I will survive...LOL
You were accurate with the time also, it lasted about five days. How is the back doing?
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336. IKE
4:03 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
335. Floodman
4:01 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Good Morning Flood, my (abazooti) is on the mend!


As is mine...still not 100% but it's becoming increasing obvious that I will survive...LOL
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334. Seastep
3:56 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Goodnight.

Think folks are waiting on Docs new post.
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333. hydrus
3:51 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
What, did i kill the blog, oh well. might a well go to bed then, goodnight.
Good Night Aussie. You did not kill the blog.:)
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332. AussieStorm
3:48 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
What, did i kill the blog, oh well. might a well go to bed then, goodnight.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
331. AussieStorm
3:40 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Can someone ask me in a few days if i have fixed up my bookmarks, put them in order, topic. please


Goodnight from Sydney.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
330. AussieStorm
3:29 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Tsunami communities frustrated by slow rebuild


Many of the Samoan communities destroyed by last year's tsunami say they are getting frustrated with the slow progress of rebuilding.

Nearly 200 people in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga were killed in the disaster.

Since the September tsunami, most of the Samoan communities destroyed have moved into the hills to rebuild their villages.

Samoa's government has received millions of dollars from Australia, New Zealand and other international donors to assist rebuilding efforts.

The Chief Executive of Habitats for Humanity New Zealand, Pete North, says despite the wet season, it has been able to build a number of new homes.

"So we're personally doing about 250 houses, which we hope to complete by the end of June," he said.

But many in the tsunami zone are unhappy with what they claim is to slow progress, saying the government officials responsible are hindering, not helping.

- ABC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
329. AussieStorm
3:29 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Olga hangover to bring Goulburn Murray rain


Remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Olga are expected to bring rain to the Goulburn Murray region in the coming days.

Albury-Wodonga received 8.6 millimetres of rain last night, while Deniliquin had 1.2mm.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Michael Halfpenny says there could be more rain tomorrow.

"We'll perhaps see a few showers developing tomorrow afternoon, a little bit of instability, increasing cloud and temperatures still pretty hot, up to the mid 30s again," Mr Halfpenny said.

"Thursday that system gets a bit closer and a front coming up to the west will link up to that system, so we're likely to see rain by the end of Thursday, perhaps a chance of thunderstorms as well."

- ABC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
328. AussieStorm
3:28 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Southern QLD: the soaking continues


As expected the rain has eased over southern Queensland in the last 24 hours, with the focus of the rainfall moving away into eastern South Australia and northwestern New South Wales.

To 9am on Tuesday, parts of the Maranoa and Channel Country districts
received anywhere from 25 to 60 millmetres.

Some rainfall totals of note are:

- 56 millimetres at Eromanga, the wettest day in 33 years for February and in three years for any month

- 39 millimetres at Thargomindah, the wettest February day in a decade

- 62 millimetres in Orientos, the most rain on a February day since 1979

The beauty of this particular rainfall event is that it is merely a follow-up to good rains over the last month or more. This means that the land is much more ready to receive the falls and to funnel it into rivers and streams.

The widespread cloud has also accomplished another feat of respite: blocking extreme heat.

- Birdsville had its coldest February day in six years, hitting just 24 degrees, 14 below the average

- Longreach only hit 25 degrees, 11 below the norm and potentially the coldest day since 1996

Cloud and rain will continue to move from QLD into NSW over the next 24 hours.

- Weatherzone
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
327. AussieStorm
3:28 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Food supplies ferried to isolated Gulf towns

Food supplies are being ferried into the isolated towns of Normanton and Karumba in the Gulf of Carpentaria in far north Queensland.

Carpentaria Shire Council mayor Fred Pascoe says the Gulf is facing re-supply problems in the aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Olga, which crossed the coast on the weekend.

There are flood warnings for the Flinders, Norman and Gulf rivers, but Councillor Pascoe says towns will not miss out on supplies.

"They're ferrying food stuff across the Norman River about 20 kilometres out on the Cairns Road, so things are holding up pretty well," he said.

"We will get the food stuff into Normanton and then we will barge it down to Karumba in one hit."

Bad weather has forced the closure of the port of Gladstone in central Queensland.

Ports Corporation spokesman Leo Zussino says strong winds and heavy rain make the port unsafe for shipping.

He says authorities will re-assess the situation twice a day while the weather remains bad.

Mr Zussino says several ships have been affected.

"We have nine vessels that are actually in the harbour - they have to be obviously unloaded or loaded - and another 16 last night left their anchorages to go to outer seas because of the winds," he said.

"With respect to the coal industry, it then comes down to how much impact the rain has had upon the coal mines and also on the rail system."

Authorities are continuing to monitor a swollen creek as the flood threat in the southern inland town of Roma eases.

Parts of Bungil Creek were sandbagged Monday night as a precaution.

The Maranoa Regional Mayor Rob Loughnan says sections of the Carnarvon and Dawson Highways are cut, but the rain has done wonders for local farms.

"[With] the Bungil Creek specifically there was some concerns it may have reached the top of the bank last night but I think it got to 5.5 metres, so there was no need to evacuate anyone or anything like that," he said.

"All the creeks seem to be ... going down pretty well."


Central Queensland drivers are being warned not to try to cross flooded roads after a number of swift water rescues.

Authorities say two people managed to get themselves to safety after they got caught in a causeway south-west of Calliope near Gladstone early Tuesday.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Service (QFRS) officers also helped drivers stranded at Bouldercome and Stanwell.

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) spokesman Robbie Medlin says too many motorists are taking risks on flooded roads.

"I think people are underestimating the depth of the water and the flow of the water, and are assuming that the vehicle that they're in is capable of crossing that particular floodway that they're trying to go through," he said.


Rockhampton Regional Council mayor Brad Carter says, once the weather starts to improve, clean-up work can begin.

Councillor Carter says the deluge flooded roads, brought down trees and caused beach erosion throughout the region.

"We do express a need for caution because of some potholes and some wash-outs that could be evident when the water recedes," he said.

In the central-west, Charleville Cosmos Centre spokeswoman Jane Morgan says European tourists visiting the region are surprised by the cool and wet conditions during the middle of summer.

"They say we came to see the red dirt and the heat and we've only had two days of heat - of anything even approaching 40 degrees - and now all of a sudden it's cold and green," she said.

"We get a lot of Scandinavians and Germans and they come out specifically to see the red dust and the dirt and the flies - you know they are just fascinated by it."

The Australian Flood Plain Association (AFPA) says rain and more flooding in Queensland's Channel Country will not just benefit graziers, but the region's tourism sector as well.

AFPA spokeswoman Karen Tully says, for the second year in a row, floodwater from Queensland is flowing towards Lake Eyre in South Australia.

She says more visitors may travel to see the inland river systems in flood.

"All our indicators are our numbers will be enhanced on last year ... particularly in Charleville and in Longreach and in Birdsville," she said.

"There was something like 30,000 tourists visited Innamincka [in South Australia].

"All our predictions are there will be greater number of visitors to our area."


- ABC
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326. StormChaser81
3:27 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
325. atmoaggie
3:25 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


There have been times where 4 to 8" have occured at my house when there are light steering currents and sea breezes collide over the interior. I had 6.75 during a collision last August. I live near Apopka and we seem to be the sea breeze collision battle ground area.

We have had those in SE LA, too. Any time of the year things might line up to give us 8 inches in a half day. I can think of a dozen events like that. Had 12 inches over the course of day a couple of years ago during spring(?...I think so). Not at all tropical-related.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
324. atmoaggie
3:21 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting transitzone:

Yea, and I gotta play race official in College Station over the weekend, forecast shifting. No problem for my experienced workers, but I usually have some aggie students show up to work that, well, let's say they're often not adequately prepared.

Thanks for being nice about that...

BTW, you race SCCA? My dad runs in La, and at Memphis, Road Atlanta, Watkins Glen (I think).

What are most 19 year-olds adequately prepared for, anyway? Anything?
(Sry, tdude)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
321. hydrus
3:07 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Floodman:
Good morning, folks!
Good Morning Flood, my (abazooti) is on the mend!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21492
320. Floodman
3:04 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Good morning, folks!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
319. AussieStorm
2:56 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting StormChaser81:
I miss the Sun, havnt seen the sun in two days.

I miss rain, oh wait, it's raining now, Thanks ex TC Olga. hehe
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
318. StormChaser81
2:49 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
I miss the Sun, havnt seen the sun in two days.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
317. AussieStorm
2:43 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Hey all, how's things, What have i missed?
Floodman, I hope that info I gave you helped out. Just want to try and do my little bit to help out Portlight.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
315. Orcasystems
2:08 PM GMT on February 02, 2010


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
313. biff4ugo
1:43 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Sorry to hear it Tampa.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1588
311. Jedkins01
1:18 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Funny that you mention that because many people here are saying the same thing. We don't even get these amounts during the rainy season. Very unusual, but not uncommon in an El Nino year. Some of the places have received enormous amounts of rain all over South Florida and hardly a mention.




Apparently you don't know Florida very well, those rain amounts are unusual this time of year, but it is El Nino so it makes since.

However that amount of rain is definitely NOT unusual in the wet season, 2 inches of rain in Miami in the wet season, or any Florida city is just a typical afternoon downpour, local amounts of 8 inches in the wet season are quite common too
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
310. severstorm
1:05 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Tampa Spin, Will be in my prayers, sorry for your loss. John
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
308. PensacolaDoug
12:48 PM GMT on February 02, 2010
Poor poor pitiful Tampa!

Phil saw his shadow.

Sigh......


Mornin all!
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307. SWFLgazer
9:38 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
TampaSpin: You have my sympathy.
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306. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:33 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THREE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FAMI (11-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion February 2 2010
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fami (994 hPa) located at 20.6S 43.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving east at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================


Near Gale Force Winds
====================


Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.6S 46.0E - (Depression Sur Terre)
24 HRS: 22.4S 50.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.4S 55.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.3S 62.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
The system has intensified within favorable environmental condistions as shown by the microwave imagery. It should make its landfall on the Western Malagasy coast near Monrondava in the next hours. The system is forecast to track generally eastward under the main steering influence of highs located north of tropical storm Fami.

It is forecassted to exit over seas over the Indian Ocean beyond 12 hrs forecast track and should not significantly re intensify due to a moderate to strong wind shear.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45739
305. Floridano
6:45 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
G'nite, all!
304. FLPandhandleJG
6:16 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Hey everyone.. Happy Ground hogs day.. hope everyone is doing alright..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
303. TampaSpin
5:13 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Looks like Matt has some more flakes a flying .....good for you Matt......LOL

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302. TampaSpin
5:11 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
I would just like to thank everyone on WU for their very kind words and the many emails i have received. WOW you all are so kind as many of others so very well know as well. Thank you from not just my family but, the many others you all help in times of need. You all are awsome. Again Thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
301. transitzone
5:10 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
Monday 2/8/10 18Z forecast map.
GFS 00Z 2/2/10 run
10M wind/2M temp, YUCK, cold below freezing & precip for North TX:

Yea, and I gotta play race official in College Station over the weekend, forecast shifting. No problem for my experienced workers, but I usually have some aggie students show up to work that, well, let's say they're often not adequately prepared.
Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
300. caneswatch
5:03 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Grothar, if you are able to read this, I will on tomorrow (actually today) at around 5.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
299. Bordonaro
5:01 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Monday 2/8/10 18Z forecast map.
GFS 00Z 2/2/10 run
10M wind/2M temp, YUCK, cold below freezing & precip for North TX:

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298. HIEXPRESS
4:59 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
00:00 (EST) & all is well...
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297. AwakeInMaryland
4:37 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Good night, Grothar (if I didn't miss you).

Good night, everyone. It was fun in here tonight.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
296. winter123
4:24 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Repost

(post 202 quoted)

OMG!! Dr masters posting a subtropical low in februrary? this seriously better be named. Unlike 90L and 92L last year, which really deserved it. But maybe if Dr Masters posted it, itll come to fruition. This kind of warm core stuff DOES happen in isolated northern spots, and this post definitely proves it! Come on NHC, wake up!!!!!

definitely doesnt look that subtropical anymore but oh well, still impressive.

Link
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1799
295. Grothar
4:18 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Good night everyone. It has been a pleasure. Really nice to see everyone back in good humor. I have so many people on ignore that I had to get a new computer for the list. Much easier on the nerves that way. Everyone take care and stay dry. Thanks for the "Pity Party" It was fun. Hope everyone has good weather.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
294. GrtLksQuest
4:16 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


have a great one, michigan grandma!


Thanks t'dude. Your Michigan gramma keeps an eye on your area - It appears that you'll be getting some snow soon, if it hasn't started already. We're due for an inch or two tonight.


Quoting Grothar:
Take care Great Lakes. See you soon. I hope you had a few laughs.


And thank you, Grothar for all you do.
Yes, I had some laughs tonight - going all the way back to AussieStorm's joke and even through yours.
Member Since: November 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
293. tornadodude
4:14 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


My goodness, you'd have thought I wrote a dissertation on Global Warming to have this much abuse heaped upon me. LOLOLOLOL


LOL well :p jk
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292. Grothar
4:10 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Take care Great Lakes. See you soon. I hope you had a few laughs.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
291. Grothar
4:09 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah 50% under water with 70 degree weather



My goodness, you'd have thought I wrote a dissertation on Global Warming to have this much abuse heaped upon me. LOLOLOLOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
290. tornadodude
4:09 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting GrtLksQuest:
Good night all - Glad to see the humor and good vibes return. And maybe we won't be hearing about drought in Florida or Australia for awhile?

Happy Ground Hog (Wallaby?) Day!
See you on the new blog tomorrow.


have a great one, michigan grandma!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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