Interesting hybrid low set to drench Spain's Canary Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on February 01, 2010

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An interesting 1002 mb low pressure system with some characteristics of a tropical storm has developed off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Canary Islands. An ASCAT pass from last night revealed top winds of 40 mph near the center, so the low is probably near tropical storm strength. This low is moving east-northeast towards the Canaries, and will likely bring sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph, to the islands tonight. The storm formed over the weekend from an isolated cold-cored low that was wandering over the Atlantic, and phase space analyses from Florida State University revealed that the low developed a partial warm core over the weekend. A respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has built near the storm's center, characteristic of a tropical storm. The low is over cool 21 - 22°C water, far colder than the typical 26°C needed for a tropical storm to form. These SSTs are about 1 - 2°C warmer than usual for this time of year. Wind shear is marginal for tropical storm formation, about 20 knots. The comma-shaped structure of the storm's spiral bands is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone, and it is pretty unlikely that NHC will view this hybrid storm as being sufficiently tropical to warrant naming it a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. The low is headed towards colder waters of 20°C that lie near the Canary Islands, and the system should become less tropical today.


Figure 1. Hybrid 1002 mb low approaches the Canary Islands, in this visible METEOSAT image from 7am EST 2/1/10.

You can use our wundermap for the Canary Islands to watch the storm roll through the islands. There are two web cams to watch (currently showing thick clouds) that might be interesting. EUMETSAT satellite images loops will also be interesting.

Next post
My next post will be Tuesday (Groundhog's Day), when I plan to discuss Punxsutawney Phil's forecast for the rest of winter. I'll throw in my two cents worth, too.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think he was trying to talk about his height. You can see him earlier trying to fit into the frame. Now let's get our minds out of the gutter (:


haha yeah, I'd hope so :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
I think he was trying to talk about his height. You can see him earlier trying to fit into the frame. Now let's get our minds out of the gutter (:
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
And now to the off-topic, however weather related, clip of the day:



wow LOL cant believe he did that
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
And now to the off-topic, however weather related, clip of the day:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Hi Matt...Good job today keeping the Super Bowl prediction contest going! And thank you to everyone who is participating. It's just something fun to do and it is for a very important and urgent cause. Any little bit helps. This is going to be a long-term endeavor. As I posted last night, I really have a fear for Haiti this Hurricane season. It would just be so devastating if they had to endure another catastrophe.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
From an email:

The President’s FY2011 budget contains a major restructuring of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)

See if I can share it successfully: http://www.mediafire.com/?ztelnndyuv1

More here, too: http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/major-shifts-flow-from-npoess-polar-satellite-program-crisis-01 557/

NPOESS details: http://www.ipo.noaa.gov/
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Quoting NRAamy:
(and..I prefer Pot Limit Omaha myself.)

que es "Pot Limit Omaha"?



a variation of poker, I think
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
(and..I prefer Pot Limit Omaha myself.)

que es "Pot Limit Omaha"?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pentagon: “Climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked”

For the first time, the Pentagon’s primary planning document addresses the threat of global warming, noting that it will accelerate instability and conflict around the globe. Former Senators John Warner (R-VA) and Hillary Clinton (D-NY) added language requiring the department to consider the effects of climate change on its facilities, capabilities, and missions to the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act. The Department of Defense’s Quadrennial Defense Review, officially released today, discusses the department’s “strategic approach to climate and energy”:
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/01/pentagon-climate-change-energy-security-and-economic-stabilit y-are-inextricably-linked/
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting TampaSpin:
He just thought he had the common flu and was being very stubbrun about going to seek a Dr. When his mother and wife finally convinced him , it was too late for medication to kick in as he had double lung problems. I 9 hours in the hospital he was gone. Don't take any flu like symptoms longer than 48 hours of no improvement litely. Just my advice after this.


I am so sorry. I just lost my good friend to the flu this year (non-swine variety) and I miss her terribly. She left behind a young son and a husband. Such a shock.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Gimme the "sure thing" everytime! :D


well the sure thing is that either your team wins the Super Bowl, or you donate to an awesome cause! sounds like a safe bet to me (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting tornadodude:


Lol right ;)


Gimme the "sure thing" everytime! :D
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Not a bad idea...except I don't gamble. ;)


Lol right ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting tornadodude:
For you Evening bloggers:

So, GeoffreyWPB and I came up with a spectacular idea!

Go to my blog, pick the team you think will win the Super Bowl. If your team does not win, then you will donate $10 to Portlight! Great way to raise money for Portlight, have fun, and root on your favorite team!

so get to work! My blog


Not a bad idea...except I don't gamble. ;)
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For you Evening bloggers:

So, GeoffreyWPB and I came up with a spectacular idea!

Go to my blog, pick the team you think will win the Super Bowl. If your team does not win, then you will donate $10 to Portlight! Great way to raise money for Portlight, have fun, and root on your favorite team!

so get to work! My blog
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting CycloneOz:
It's a little late with this notice, but if you are a fan of the Alan Parsons Project, Eric Woolfson (singer / songwriter) died back on December 9, 2009. He was 64 years old.

The eye in the Sky was a good one too
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Look at me now, PaPa! :)


At least it ain't "PoPo".

(and..I prefer Pot Limit Omaha myself.)
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123. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11-20092010
22:00 PM Réunion February 1 2010
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11R (1001 hPa) located at 19.3S 42.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving northeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.6S 43.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.4S 46.2E - 25 knots (Depression Sur Terre)
48 HRS: 21.4S 52.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.6S 57.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
======================
Environmental conditions are favorable to intensification with a weakening vertical wind shear, as the minimum track over very favorable energetic potential. Feeding flows are mainly due to monsoon flow, but a southerly flow is expected to enter the south of the channel tomorrow.

The system is forecast to track globally eastward under the main steering influence of highs located north of the system.

The system may reach storm stage before its landfall on the Malagasy coast nearby Morondava a little before 02/1200z. It is forecasted to exit over seas over the Indian Ocean with favorable condition beyond 36 hr forecast
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Tampa,sorry to hear about your cousin,my condolences.Wish people would take this flu more seriously.
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Looks like below normal Temperatures for the Eastern Half of the ConUs hangs on for the most part for the next 10 days......

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It's a little late with this notice, but if you are a fan of the Alan Parsons Project, Eric Woolfson (singer / songwriter) died back on December 9, 2009. He was 64 years old.

If I could see the sky above
And the mind could be set free
As wild white horses reached the shore
I'd stand alone and oversee

And if the bush before me burns
should I turn my eyes away
And still the voices I can hear
As clear to me as light of day

I believed in my dreams
Nothing could change my mind
Now I know what they mean
How could I've been so blind

Cold sands of time
(Winds that blow as cold as ice, sounds that come in the night)
Shall hide what is left of me
(Come from Paradise)

I've been through times when no one cared
I've seen clouds in empty skies
When one kind word meant more to me
Than all the love in Paradise

I believed in my dreams
Nothing could change my mind
Till I found what they mean
Nothing can save me now

RIP Eric. You were awesome and your talent will be missed but never forgotten!
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Quoting MTWX:


Glad to hear it is doing good... I'm trying to get over a cold myself. This weird weather we've been having has been giving my back some aches the last couple of weeks.


My weather driven issues are considerably more pronounced post surgery; I feel your pain!
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April 6th, 1987 - Caesar's Palace?

Old-timers may remember that "event."
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Quoting TampaSpin:
He just thought he had the common flu and was being very stubbrun about going to seek a Dr. When his mother and wife finally convinced him , it was too late for medication to kick in as he had double lung problems. I 9 hours in the hospital he was gone. Don't take any flu like symptoms longer than 48 hours of no improvement litely. Just my advice after this.
i am very sorry to hear about the loss. thank you for the information and the word of caution, it could save a life!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
He just thought he had the common flu and was being very stubbrun about going to seek a Dr. When his mother and wife finally convinced him , it was too late for medication to kick in as he had double lung problems. I 9 hours in the hospital he was gone. Don't take any flu like symptoms longer than 48 hours of no improvement litely. Just my advice after this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
114. MTWX
Quoting Floodman:


Good; I walk 3-4 miles a day (not so much in the last 4 or so...sick) and I feel about 95%; I still have little pain, but nothing mind numbing...my surgeon was outstanding and he says the patient was too


Glad to hear it is doing good... I'm trying to get over a cold myself. This weird weather we've been having has been giving my back some aches the last couple of weeks.
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sorry about your loss. god bless you and your family
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So sorry to hear of your loss Tampa Spin
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Quoting MTWX:
Flood.. Hows that back treating ya??


Good; I walk 3-4 miles a day (not so much in the last 4 or so...sick) and I feel about 95%; I still have little pain, but nothing mind numbing...my surgeon was outstanding and he says the patient was too
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Quoting CycloneOz:


I actually played with the "big boys" back on April 6, 1987 at Caesar's Palace. I won $6,500 that night playing 7-card stud.

And yes, luck is involved, so I'll quit posting about it. I don't want to jinx it all up.

2008 WSOP Main Event - Table #???

One guy had 4 aces
The other guy had a Royal Flush

Need I say more?

\

hey I'm up $120 online today.. not a bad days off lol
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Quoting tornadodude:
From Urban Dictionary:

Baller-

A thug that has "made it" to the big time. Originally referred ball players that made it out of the streets to make millions as a pro ball player, but now is used to describe any thug that is living large.


Mr. Baller it is then! Glad my Italian heritage and culture are not going to waste.

Look at me now, PaPa! :)
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106. MTWX
Flood.. Hows that back treating ya??
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!


That's terrible news...very sad. If there was no underlying condition it exacerbated to cause such a sudden loss, then it's alarming, too.
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My thoughts and prayers go out to you and your family TampaSpin
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting CycloneOz:


Oh, well then...I better get ta spendin' before Obama decides to redistribute it, huh?


I would start now: QVC
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!


I'm sorry, TS...condolences
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Quoting StormChaser81:


It means you have money to spend on things that most cannot afford.


Oh, well then...I better get ta spendin' before Obama decides to redistribute it, huh?
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100. MTWX
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!

Sorry to here that. My condolences...
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Quoting StormChaser81:


No offense but you know the odds and you havnt played with the big boys yet.


I actually played with the "big boys" back on April 6, 1987 at Caesar's Palace. I won $6,500 that night playing 7-card stud.

And yes, luck is involved, so I'll quit posting about it. I don't want to jinx it all up.

2008 WSOP Main Event - Table #???

One guy had 4 aces
The other guy had a Royal Flush

Need I say more?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Urban Dictionary:

Baller-

A thug that has "made it" to the big time. Originally referred ball players that made it out of the streets to make millions as a pro ball player, but now is used to describe any thug that is living large.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8333
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!


Srry for your loss.
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Insane winter weather continues. A hybrid L off Spain, after Madrid and Barcelona had snow earlier this winter. Climate variability is amazing, not trying to provoke a heated discussion, I promise.
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Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!
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Quoting CycloneOz:


I like it.

What does it mean?


It means you have money to spend on things that most cannot afford.
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93. MTWX
Quoting Minnemike:
wow; last time the blog was this slow, and off topic, i made some off remark about lacking entertainment... unfortunately that was 2hrs before Haiti got pummeled.
i shall be content today, though i wouldn't mind some more weather posts :D


been a very slow spotter season here in MS. almost no severe weather to talk about.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Actually, not really "such a little chance."

I like my odds.

I've been playing for many years and have won many "local" tournaments here in New Mexico.

What got it all started was over the Christmas break. My wife watched me play and win a big tournament.

She told me that it was time for me to "go-live" at the WSOP instead of watching it on ESPN.

I agreed.

Elvis will remarry us :)


No offense but you know the odds and you havnt played with the big boys yet. Im sure your good but your stepping into a serious place were million are born everyday. GOOD LUCK MAN. I'll stick with $60 buy in's.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Your new Name is Mr. Baller.


I like it.

What does it mean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow; last time the blog was this slow, and off topic, i made some off remark about lacking entertainment... unfortunately that was 2hrs before Haiti got pummeled.
i shall be content today, though i wouldn't mind some more weather posts :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.