Interesting hybrid low set to drench Spain's Canary Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on February 01, 2010

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An interesting 1002 mb low pressure system with some characteristics of a tropical storm has developed off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Canary Islands. An ASCAT pass from last night revealed top winds of 40 mph near the center, so the low is probably near tropical storm strength. This low is moving east-northeast towards the Canaries, and will likely bring sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph, to the islands tonight. The storm formed over the weekend from an isolated cold-cored low that was wandering over the Atlantic, and phase space analyses from Florida State University revealed that the low developed a partial warm core over the weekend. A respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has built near the storm's center, characteristic of a tropical storm. The low is over cool 21 - 22°C water, far colder than the typical 26°C needed for a tropical storm to form. These SSTs are about 1 - 2°C warmer than usual for this time of year. Wind shear is marginal for tropical storm formation, about 20 knots. The comma-shaped structure of the storm's spiral bands is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone, and it is pretty unlikely that NHC will view this hybrid storm as being sufficiently tropical to warrant naming it a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. The low is headed towards colder waters of 20°C that lie near the Canary Islands, and the system should become less tropical today.


Figure 1. Hybrid 1002 mb low approaches the Canary Islands, in this visible METEOSAT image from 7am EST 2/1/10.

You can use our wundermap for the Canary Islands to watch the storm roll through the islands. There are two web cams to watch (currently showing thick clouds) that might be interesting. EUMETSAT satellite images loops will also be interesting.

Next post
My next post will be Tuesday (Groundhog's Day), when I plan to discuss Punxsutawney Phil's forecast for the rest of winter. I'll throw in my two cents worth, too.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting presslord:
surprisingly...that mskes sense to me...


ha I made sense? wow :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Haiti three weeks later






http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/02/haiti_three_weeks_later.html?camp=localsearch:on:twit:bigp ic

A lot of images ...


Amazing images, heartbreaking and captures a society in collapse, which is also a disaster.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25333
surprisingly...that mskes sense to me...
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Quoting presslord:
OK...one of you weather geniuses answer me this: What is the difference between 'rain'...and 'rain showers'?


well imo, rain is constant for an indefinite period of time, while rain showers occur randomly throughout a period of time
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
OK...one of you weather geniuses answer me this: What is the difference between 'rain'...and 'rain showers'?
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
NEUTRAL just as we enter june or just after


Thanks Keeper. I keep getting conflicting reports some same. Strong, some say neutral.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25333
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


twist's blog says, Berrien Springs, Michigan,

And it's in the 20s! Obviously he's trying to sell us some real estate, LOL.

Pizza's finally here! CYL.


Wow! That's only 10 miles from me. I'm a volunteer at Fernwood Botanical Gardens, which is on the St. Joe River just south of Berrien Springs and I often shop at Apple Valley and Zick's in Berrien Springs. Small world.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Strange case of moving weather posts and a scientist under siege

In the first part of a major investigation of the so-called 'climategate' emails, one of Britain's top science writers reveals how researchers tried to hide flaws in a key study.....

Still the predictions of the last IPCC report are considered conservative. So i'm looking forward to an update. It will be more grim, hence the approach of china and lately the us to act accordingly.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Haiti three weeks later






http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/02/haiti_three_weeks_later.html?camp=localsearch:on:twit:bigp ic


A lot of images ...
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting Grothar:


Glad you like that one. How have you been Grt?


Quoting Grothar:


Glad you like that one. How have you been Grt?


You have wu mail.
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229. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


TD 11R infrared radar image
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44717
NASA funding plan takes a broader view
Under Obama's budget proposal, the agency would cancel plans to return to the moon, and instead focus on building rockets that could someday go farther.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-budget-nasa2-2010feb02,0,2292711.story
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
227. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWO
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11-20092010
4:00 AM Réunion February 2 2010
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11R (999 hPa) located at 19.7S 43.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 28 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving east-southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.4S 45.0E - (Depression Sur Terre)
24 HRS: 21.2S 48.8E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.9S 53.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.0S 58.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
======================

Environmental conditions are favorable to intensification, with a weakening vertical wind shear, under the southern edge of the upper level ridge, as the minimum track over very favorable energetic potential. Feeding flows are mainly due to monsoon flow, but the polar inflow is forecasted to improve on the south of the channel.

The system is forecast to track globally eastward under the main steering influence of highs located north of the system.

The system may reach storm stage before its landfall on the Malagasy coast nearby Morondava between 0600z and 1200z, today. Iti is forecasted to exit over seas over the Indian Ocean with favorable conditions beyond 24 hrs forecast ahead of a trough.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44717
Strange case of moving weather posts and a scientist under siege

In the first part of a major investigation of the so-called 'climategate' emails, one of Britain's top science writers reveals how researchers tried to hide flaws in a key study.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Just posted, asking where twist lives. I haven't seen 70 for ages.
70's i be happy with 50's
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Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Just posted, asking where twist lives. I haven't seen 70 for ages.


twist's blog says, Berrien Springs, Michigan,

And it's in the 20s! Obviously he's trying to sell us some real estate, LOL.

Pizza's finally here! CYL.
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this year maybe we meet scary shary
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Quoting Grothar:


That is some little storm. Don't recall ever seeing one like it this time of year. Anyone one know if there will be ENSO neutral conditions this summer or fall?
NEUTRAL just as we enter june or just after still early 3 more months will know better
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FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL COLLIER...COASTAL
MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...
GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND
MIAMI DADE...INLAND PALM BEACH...MAINLAND MONROE...METRO
BROWARD...METRO MIAMI DADE AND METRO PALM BEACH.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

THE COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER THE REGION AND
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
CONDITIONS THAT ARE CONDUCIVE TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ISOLATED AREAS MAY REACH 5 TO
7 INCHES. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
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its what you expect with a warm front that stalls over the state of florida. rain and mosquitos
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


GrtLksQuest, is twistermania a friend of yours?


Just posted, asking where twist lives. I haven't seen 70 for ages.
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Quoting twistermania:


How many times do I gotta tell you guys? If you want 70 degree temps all winter long, move here to Michigan! :D


Where in Michigan do you live and have 70 degree temps?

(I'm in SW Mich and right now it is 25 degrees.)
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Quoting Grothar:


Ich danke Ihnen für die Erklärung. I just wondered how you wrote so well. Glad you have joined us.
I learned english from my visit to the US and by watching english movies/reading english internet sites.
I still have to learn a lot and take every chance in doing so.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Gro, I know that WSI has put out their forecast but how reliable is it comparable to the previous years?
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Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Yes!


Glad you like that one. How have you been Grt?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25333
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Danke. Ich habe die Deutsche Staatsangehörigkeit und kenne die USA ganz gut.


Ich danke Ihnen für die Erklärung. I just wondered how you wrote so well. Glad you have joined us.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25333
Quoting Grothar:
Since the blog is quiet tonight, there is a question I have wanted to ask but I wanted to wait for the right time.

Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

Gee, I enjoy using that word anthropogenic. Since most people learned how to spell it, it is now one of the most commonly used words in the language and on this blog. I think it may replace cyclogenesis as the most overused word.


Yes!
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Wonder if the GFS will go crazy this season...I remember last April, it was spitting out Hurricanes like crazy.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Repost


That is some little storm. Don't recall ever seeing one like it this time of year. Anyone one know if there will be ENSO neutral conditions this summer or fall?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25333
Don't forget....

Quoting tornadodude:
For you Evening bloggers:

So, GeoffreyWPB and I came up with a spectacular idea!

Go to my blog, pick the team you think will win the Super Bowl. If your team does not win, then you will donate $10 to Portlight! Great way to raise money for Portlight, have fun, and root on your favorite team!

so get to work! My blog
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
Quoting Grothar:


Nichts. Aber Sie schreiben sehr gut auf Englisch. Sind Sie Deutche oder Amerikaner?
Danke. Ich habe die Deutsche Staatsangehörigkeit und kenne die USA ganz gut.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
208. xcool
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season will be more active than the 50-year average and the relatively quiet 2009 season, forecasters at WSI Corp. said Tuesday.

WSI expects 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes with sustained Category 3 winds of 111-130 miles per hour in the season which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. That's more than the 50-year average of 10 storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes, but near the 15-year average of 14 storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.

The 2009 season was the quietest since 1997, with nine storms, three hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.

WSI said a landfall forecasting model suggests that Georgia and the Carolinas region are at most risk for landfall this season, with near-normal to slightly below normal probabilities in other coastal areas. WSI said the model was correct in predicting an active 2008 hurricane season on the Gulf Coast and a quiet 2009 season.

WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford said El Nino conditions helped suppress activity in the 2009 season, referring to the unusual warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean, with wide-ranging impacts. But recent patterns suggest that the 2010 season could be even busier than currently expected.

"The previous five El Nino events have all been followed by significant increases in tropical activity the following summer as the vertical shear weakens and the tropical Atlantic warms up," Crawford said. "We expect a similar result this summer, and feel that our current forecast numbers are more likely to be adjusted upwards rather than downwards as we get closer to the season."

-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2141; david.bird@dowjones.com
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Quoting caneswatch:


Hawk, how long's it gonna be?


Ein Augenblick, Canes!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25333
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

is that so tornadodude


not quite as emphatically
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


exactly what I was thinking... :P

is that so tornadodude
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Quoting Grothar:


Nichts. Aber Sie schreiben sehr gut auf Englisch. Sind Sie Deutche oder Amerikaner?


Hawk, how long's it gonna be?
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Sure ;) Was möchten Sie hören?


Nichts. Aber Sie schreiben sehr gut auf Englisch. Sind Sie Deutche oder Amerikaner?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25333
Quoting Huracan09:
[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/2unvsdu.jpg[/IMG]

Repost
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys wow wow wow wow wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hey doc this is a nice one LOL kinda got people up and saying whaaat


exactly what I was thinking... :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
hi guys wow wow wow wow wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hey doc this is a nice one LOL kinda got people up and saying whaaat
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Ken Kaye South Florida Sun-Sentinel

3:05 p.m. EST, February 1, 2010

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With almost 7 inches of rain falling in some areas, the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood warning for southeast Broward County. The warning is effective through 3:15 p.m. but might be extended.

The rest of the region also has been blanketed under flood watches and advisories, as heavy rains have put roads and low-lying areas under water.

The bottom line: Be careful if you're driving around out there.

The weather service reported 6.5 inches of rain fell Cooper City, 5.78 at Archbishop McCarthy High School in Southwest Ranches, 3.35 inches at Pasadena Lakes and 2.71 inches in Weston.

The rain is the result of a weak cold front. It is expected to continue this evening and into Tuesday, the weather service said.
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Groth...I had a dream last night...I saw Big Bird....he was sitting on a sidewalk asleep...have you ever seen how he snores?....welll, he was making that noise...when I woke up, I kid you not, my husband was making that exact noise....

freaky....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Grothar:


Andromedan, eh. Do you speak German?
Sure ;) Was möchten Sie hören?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Gro, Coconut Creek. The flash flood watch is until 8pm for all of Broward county
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Quoting NRAamy:
drg...I hear ya...it's not easy being green...or purple for that matter....


Don't tell my you watch Sesame Street. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25333
Ow. That didn't take long.
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Yeah not the best photo, it does not hide my alien origin well ;)


Andromedan, eh. Do you speak German?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25333
drg...I hear ya...it's not easy being green...or purple for that matter....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/2unvsdu.jpg[/IMG]
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Quoting NRAamy:
drg....did you get too close to a nuclear plant when you were a kid....or are you related to The Munsters....

Yeah not the best photo, it does not hide my alien origin well ;)
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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