Stratospheric water vapor decline credited with slowing global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:18 PM GMT on January 29, 2010

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After a steep rise in global average temperatures in the 1990s, the 2000s have seen relatively flat temperatures, despite increasing levels of CO2 emissions by humans. This reduced warming may be partially due to a sharp decrease in stratospheric water vapor that began after 2000, according to research published yesterday in Science by a team of researchers led by Dr. Susan Solomon of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas capable of significantly warming the planet, and its potency is much higher when it is located in the lower stratosphere where temperatures are extremely cold. Greenhouse gases located in cold regions of the atmosphere are more effective at heating the planet because they absorb heat radiation from the Earth's relatively warm surface, but then re-emit energy at a much colder temperature, resulting in less heat energy lost to space. Even though stratospheric water vapor can exist at concentrations more than 100 times lower than at the surface, the 10% drop in stratospheric water vapor since 2000 noted by Solomon et al. acted to slow down global warming by 25% between 2000 - 2009, compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.


Figure 1. Stratospheric water vapor in the tropics, between 5°S - 5°N, as measured by the HALOE instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), between 1993 - 2005. The bottom portion of the plot shows the lower stratosphere, just above where tall thunderstorms are able to transport water vapor into the stratosphere. A strong yearly cycle is evident in the water vapor, due to the seasonal variation in heavy thunderstorms over the tropics. Once in the lower stratosphere, the waver vapor takes about 1.2 years to travel to the upper stratosphere, as seen in the bending of the contours to the right with height. Note that beginning in 2001, very low water vapor concentrations less than 2.2 parts per million by volume (ppmv) began appearing in the lower stratosphere, due to substantial cooling. Image credit: Rosenlof, K. H., and G. C. Reid (2008), Trends in the temperature and water vapor content of the tropical lower stratosphere: Sea surface connection, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06107, doi:10.1029/2007JD009109.

The observations
We haven't been able to observe water vapor in the stratosphere very long--accurate global measurements only go back to 1991, when the HALOE instrument aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) began taking data (Figure 1). Stratospheric water vapor showed an increase of about 0.5 parts per million by volume (ppmv) during the 1990s. But after 2000, a sudden drop of 0.4 ppmv was observed, and this decrease has persisted into 2009. To see how these changes impacted the amount of global warming, Solomon et al. fed the observations into a specialized high-resolution model that computed the change in heat from the fluctuating water vapor levels. They found that the increase in stratospheric water vapor in the 1990s led to about a 30% increase in the amount of global warming observed during that decade, and the decrease of 0.4 ppmv since 2000 led to a 25% reduction between 2000 - 2009.

How water vapor gets into the stratosphere
The stratosphere has two main sources of water vapor: transport from the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) via tall thunderstorms, and the chemical breakdown of methane gas into water vapor and carbon dioxide. With regard to greenhouse effect warming, transport of water vapor by thunderstorms is the most important source, since this mechanism delivers water vapor to the lowest part of the stratosphere, where temperatures are coldest and greenhouse gases are more effective at warming the climate. There is a limit as to how much water vapor that can enter the stratosphere via thunderstorms, though. Temperature decreases with altitude from the surface to the bottom of the stratosphere, where they begin to rise with height due to the solar energy-absorbing effect of the stratospheric ozone layer. As moisture-laden air rises in thunderstorms towards the lower stratosphere, it encounters the atmosphere's "cold point"--the coldest point in the lower atmosphere, at the base of the stratosphere. Since the amount of water vapor that can be present in the atmosphere decreases as the temperature gets colder, and moisture being transported to the stratosphere must traverse through the "cold point" of the atmosphere, the air gets "freeze dried" and loses most of its moisture.


Figure 2. The departure from average of tropopause temperature (dark line) and Sea Surface Temperature (light dashed line) for the tropical Pacific Ocean between 10°S - 10°N, from 1981 - 2007. The tropopause is the bottom boundary of the stratosphere. The SST data is for 139°W - 171°W longitude, and is from the NOAA Optimal Interpolation v2 data set. The tropopause data is from balloon soundings, for the region 171°W - 200°W. The SST is plotted so that the anomalies increase as one looks down. Note that prior to about 2000, tropopause temperatures and SSTs increased and decreased together, but that beginning in 2000 - 2001, a sharp climate shift occurred, and the two quantities became anti-correlated. The sudden drop in tropopause temperature in 2000 - 2001 caused a sharp drop in stratospheric water vapor. Image credit: Rosenlof, K. H., and G. C. Reid (2008), Trends in the temperature and water vapor content of the tropical lower stratosphere: Sea surface connection, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06107, doi:10.1029/2007JD009109.

Why did stratospheric water vapor drop in 2000?
Tall thunderstorms capable of delivering water vapor into the stratosphere occur primarily in the tropics, particularly over the Western Pacific, where a huge warm pool with very high Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) exists. In 2000, this region experienced a sharp increase in SST of 0.25°C, which has remained consistent though the 2000s (Figure 2). Coincident with this increase in SST came a sharp drop in the "cold point" temperature of the tropopause--the lower boundary of the stratosphere. This reduction in "cold point" temperature meant that less water vapor could make it into the stratosphere over the Tropical Pacific, since more thunderstorm water was getting "freeze dried" out. Did global warming trigger this increase in Pacific SST, resulting in cooling of the "cold point" and less water vapor in the stratosphere? Or was it random variation due to some decades-long natural cycle? This key question was left unanswered by the Solomon et al. study, and observations of stratospheric water vapor don't go back far enough to offer a reasonable guess. One factor arguing against global warming having triggered a negative feedback of this nature is that prior to 2000, increases in Western Pacific SST caused increases in "cold point" temperatures--behavior opposite of what has been seen since 2000.

If global warming has triggered the decrease in stratospheric water vapor seen since 2000, it could mean that the climate models have predicted too much global warming, since they don't predict that such a negative feedback exists. On the other hand, if this is a natural cycle, we can expect the recent flattening in global temperatures to average out in the long run, with a return to steeper increases in temperature in the coming decades. Climate models currently do a poor job modeling the complex dynamics of water vapor in the stratosphere, and are not much help figuring out what's going on. Complicating the issue is the fact that about 15% of all thunderstorms capable of delivering water vapor into the stratosphere are generated by tropical cyclones (Rosenlof and Reid, 2008), and tropical cyclones are not well-treated by climate models. We also have to factor in the impact of stratospheric ozone loss, which acts to cool the lower stratosphere. This effect should gradually decrease in future decades as CFC levels decline, though. The stratosphere is a devilishly complicated place that can have a significant impact on global climate change, and we are many years from understanding what is going on there.

References
Romps, D.M., and Z. Kuang, "Overshooting convection in tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters, 2009; 36 (9): L09804 DOI: 10.1029/2009GL037396

Rosenlof, K. H., and G. C. Reid (2008), Trends in the temperature and water vapor content of the tropical lower stratosphere: Sea surface connection, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06107, doi:10.1029/2007JD009109.

Portlight Haiti update
Paul Timmons, who directs the Portlight.org disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, was interviewed by NBC yesterday. The reporter doing the story is planning to follow the Portlight-donated goods to Haiti and interview the people with disabilities that receive the donations. It is uncertain when the story will be aired, but I'll try to give everyone a heads-up.

Next post
My next post will probably be Tuesday (Groundhog's Day), when I plan to discuss Phil's forecast for the rest of winter. I'll throw in my two cents worth, too.

Jeff Masters

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803. Josihua2
6:48 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
ytytjytj
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802. Josihua2
6:48 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
jrytr
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801. Josihua2
6:48 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
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800. Josihua2
6:47 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
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799. Josihua2
6:47 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
q
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798. Josihua2
6:47 PM GMT on August 28, 2010
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797. drg0dOwnCountry
3:13 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Urgent Need for Haiti Relief: Wheels on the Ground

At the port of Jacksonville, Fla., a shipment of around 250 Army vehicles is supposed to be loaded this afternoon onto a contract barge, bound for Port-au-Prince. If all goes to plan, the shipment will provide much-needed mobility for relief operations in Haiti.

In a conference call this morning, Col. Ken Dyer said the Army had shipped the vehicles by rail from Fort Bragg, N.C. to supplement equipment that had been airlifted to support soldiers already on the ground in Haiti. Troops of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division, began flying to Haiti to support disaster relief around two weeks ago, but some of their transport still has to arrive by sea.
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/01/urgent-need-for-haiti-relief-wheels-on-the-ground/
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
796. atmoaggie
3:08 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting Seastep:


Hope it works out for them.


"led by the world's largest number of hydroelectric generators."

Too bad they are going to pay for that in lost wetlands, ecosystems, and coastal erosion. Every dam on a river removes sediment that would have been naturally deposited in a coastal river delta. (For example, Louisiana's wetland problem is partly due to dams on tributaries of the Mississippi. Old man river is carrying about half of the sediment load down here that it used to.)

I guess we should call that athropogenic wetland sediment depletion...AWSD ?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
795. NewBdoBdo
3:08 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
WSI, a private forecasting company, and the Tropical Meteorology Project of Colorado State University (CSU) have both issued early season projections of more storms than last year -- and more storms than an average tropical season.

WSI is forecasting 13 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), including seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is considered one of category 3 or higher, which is a storm with a sustained wind of at least 131 mph. CSU is forecasting 11 to 16 named storms, including six to eight hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. The 50-year average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes per year.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
794. weathermanwannabe
3:07 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Good Morning.......Went to the Tallahassee NWS Weatherfest with the kids on Saturday. Did not know if any Wunderbloggers were there but it was a good time. Small crowd but the Lectures were interesting and very nice staff and mets at the Office who were willing to answer any questions. I finally figured out how to read all of the different data/color codes on the Doppler Radar images based upon the radar return signals.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8850
793. IKE
3:06 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
792. drg0dOwnCountry
2:53 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
NASA Releases First Free E-Book, on History of X-15 Rocket Plane

NASA continues to stay ahead of the government pack when it comes to public outreach. In addition to its many popular Twitter streams, iPhone apps and opportunities for citizens to participate in scientific programs, the agency is jumping into the e-book space.

For space geeks looking for a little e-reading this weekend, NASA recently added an e-book section to its publications list and rolled out the first free title for the Kindle and Sony Reader, a history of the x-15 hypersonic test aircraft.

More titles are on the way. The agency already has plenty of technical papers, presentations, case studies and other publications on its website that could eventually land in your e-reader.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/01/nasa-e-books/
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
791. AussieStorm
2:44 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting twhcracker:


no kiddin. it is incredible

just google it
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
790. twhcracker
2:42 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

WOW! That is absolutley beautiful!


no kiddin. it is incredible
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
789. biff4ugo
2:39 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Good Morning!

I was hoping for a negative feedback loop like this potential water vapor link. It also goes with the good news that a positive feedback loop is weaker than predicted.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8483722.stm
The Ozone layer is in the lower stratosphere, where does that fall relative to the cold point? I don't have the psi/mb conversion.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1558
788. AussieStorm
2:35 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Earthquake Details

Magnitude
4.8
Date-Time
Monday, February 01, 2010 at 14:19:54 UTC
Monday, February 01, 2010 at 06:19:54 AM at epicenter
Location
32.344N, 117.260W
Depth
6.9 km (4.3 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
Distances
22 km (14 miles) W (274) from Rosarito, Baja California, Mexico
26 km (16 miles) WSW (246) from La Joya, Baja California, Mexico
29 km (18 miles) SSW (207) from Imperial Beach, CA
31 km (19 miles) SW (228) from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal /- 10.1 km (6.3 miles); depth /- 19.9 km (12.4 miles)
Parameters
Nph= 13, Dmin=43 km, Rmss=0.3 sec, Gp=306,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Source
California Integrated Seismic Net:
USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR
Event ID
ci10537093
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
787. HurricaneHunterGal
2:34 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:


WOW! That is absolutley beautiful!
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
786. Skyepony (Mod)
2:22 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
12P

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37466
785. SouthDadeFish
2:19 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
About the EATL low. This is interesting
Shows that it has been symmetric warm core before, and might approach that threshold again. SSTs in the area seem marginal to support subtropical cyclone formation.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
784. AussieStorm
2:15 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Heavy rain thunders into New South Wales
Martin Palmer, Monday February 1, 2010

Rain and lines of storms have begun tearing through New South Wales, the start of an excellent week of rain.

Only four or five weeks after the Christmas rain bonanza brought about by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lawrence, another deluge has begun. This time it is being delivered by what was a Coral Sea cyclone, Olga.

The Ex-Cyclone, now a low, has been relentlessly battering southeastern Queensland over the last 24 hours.

Its wrath is now being felt through the southeast. Northeast NSW, for example, has already started to see rainfall pick up as the system meanders southwards.

But, it is over to the west that the fireworks are beginning to fly. The low (Olga), has set up a conveyor belt of strong winds, which have sucked up bucket loads of moisture from the sea off the QLD coast. This moisture is now slamming into what was otherwise a benign inland trough.

As a result of this clash, storm cells are firing right through western NSW. Tibooburra has amassed 14mm in an hour. Broken Hill has grabbed 70km/h gusts. Early warnings though, that some of these storms could bring damaging winds and flash flooding, keep up to date with the latest warnings and forecast rain at weatherzone.com.au

- Weatherzone
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
783. AussieStorm
2:15 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Qld's drenching continues overnight
Natalie Poyhonen, Monday February 1.

Almost half of Queensland is expected to receive more rain overnight generated by the remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Olga and a monsoon trough.

In fact, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says rain will continue to fall across parts of Queensland for the next couple of days.

In the state's north, heavy rain flooded several homes and two cemeteries in the Torres Strait over the weekend.

In the central-west, the Barcaldine Regional Council says it is having its best rainfall in more than 30 years.

BOM forecaster David Grant says wet weather in the Capricornia Coast has generated significant rainfall.

"The 24 hours to 9am [AEST], we did see totals of upwards of around 270 millimetres in the stretch between Mackay and St Lawrence," he said.

"Olga's now situated through the central-west district around that Longreach sort of area."

The weather system is expected to generate overnight rain in the Darling Downs, Wide Bay and Channel Country.

- ABC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
782. Orcasystems
2:03 PM GMT on February 01, 2010


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
781. AussieStorm
2:03 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting twhcracker:
does anyone have a picture of frozen fog? I would just like to see what it looked like. if you can see it.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
780. AussieStorm
2:02 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting twhcracker:
does anyone have a picture of frozen fog? I would just like to see what it looked like. if you can see it.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
779. BobinTampa
1:58 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting twhcracker:
does anyone have a picture of frozen fog? I would just like to see what it looked like. if you can see it.


http://images.google.com/images?sourceid=navclient&rlz=1T4GGIK_enUS269US269&q=picture+of+frozen+fog &um=1&ie=UTF-8&ei=cd1mS5yLNZGXtge23eCiBg&sa=X&oi=image_result_group&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CBQQsAQwA A
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
777. twhcracker
1:52 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
does anyone have a picture of frozen fog? I would just like to see what it looked like. if you can see it.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
776. Floridano
1:41 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
G'morning, all!
775. AussieStorm
1:40 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
Good Evening all, is everyone still laughing from my joke earlier?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
773. IKE
12:12 PM GMT on February 01, 2010
About that eastern Atlantic low....from the latest discussion..."EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC LOW AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N19N IN 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
772. Cazatormentas
11:51 AM GMT on February 01, 2010


Ok, another interesting case of convective mesovortex formed from a isolated low... Not a cutoff low. As we say, "Borrasca Fra Aislada", something like "Isolated Cold Low" at surface level.

This is another case of little almost-tropical system to me. And it seems, Eastern Atlantic is the best zone for them in the last few years.
Member Since: October 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
771. PensacolaDoug
11:45 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
a href="http://" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
770. severstorm
11:29 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Morning, Well they say we could get 1 to 2 inches of rain here with poss 2-4 inches. I'll take it 50 here in z-hills fl.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
769. watchingnva
10:49 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
well now, that was a fun weekend of a foot of snow...bleh...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
768. CybrTeddy
10:44 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Got this off from Caza's blog.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
767. CybrTeddy
10:42 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
766. DakeMisc
8:33 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Hi All,

Long time lurker here in SW North Dakota.

We recently had days of freezing fog/hoar frost then areas got freezing rain and snow. Many power poles snapped on January 21-22. Hundreds are still without electricity. Take a look at this link from the Slope Electric Coop (SW, near the SD border) of shows pics of some of their downed poles:

Link

I think electric linemen should get medals! There's a report on the Home page about what they're dealing with if you're interested...

Maddy in ND
Member Since: September 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
765. Cazatormentas
8:10 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Hi folks, from Spain!

This is a tropical depression to me...



We are monitoring it progresses in our forum since yesterday.

Link

This kind of interesting lows are appearing frequently in the Eastern Atlantic since VINCE and its friends (GRACE, for example).
Member Since: October 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
764. lickitysplit
6:53 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting pmagn:
The evidence is becoming oppressive...

Pentagon to rank global warming as destabilising force
US defence review says military planners should factor climate change into long-term strategy
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/31/pentagon-ranks-global-warming-destabilising-force?showa llcomments=true#end-of-comments


Wow. Even the military is taking this seriously. Not exactly a group of left-wing nutbags.
Member Since: May 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
763. Tazmanian
6:31 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Firsts posts from that evening:

156. Chucktown 5:08 PM EST on January 12, 2010

804
wexx22 paaq 122203
tibat1

tsunami information statement number 1
nws west coast/alaska tsunami warning center palmer ak
603 pm ast tue jan 12 2010

...this tsunami information statement is for puerto rico/ the virgin islands/ the u.s. atlantic and gulf of mexico states/ and eastern canadian provinces...

no warning... no watch and no advisory is in effect for these areas.

evaluation
based on earthquake data and historic tsunami records the earthquake was not sufficient to generate a tsunami damaging to puerto rico/ the virgin islands/ the u.s. atlantic and gulf of mexico coasts/ and eastern canada.

however - earthquakes of this size sometimes generate tsunamis that can be destructive along coasts located in the region of the earthquake epicenter. authorities in the region should be aware of this possibility and take appropriate action.

preliminary earthquake parameters
magnitude - 7.3
time - 1653 est jan 12 2010
1753 ast jan 12 2010
2153 utc jan 12 2010
location - 18.5 north 72.5 west
- haiti region
depth - 21 miles/33 km

162. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 5:24 PM EST on January 12, 2010

Wow--that earthquake is scary! I wonder how many people will be killed in Haiti--the infrastructure there is so poor. :(

There have been some very strong earthquakes on the north side of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico that fortunately did not generate ocean crossing tsunamis:

August 4, 1946 Dominican Republic--magnitude 8.0 Lat 19.25 north, Lon 69 W.

I am glad no tsunami is heading this way! But the poor, poor people of Haiti. They just don't get a break!



hmm look at the date that date say jan 12th
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
762. GeoffreyWPB
5:41 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
---
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11012
761. drg0dOwnCountry
4:59 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Intresting comment over from realclimate on this blog post.


I flat out don’t see nor read a ” slow down global warming by 25% between 2000 – 2009″ as per Dr Masters page:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1421

What I see is less strong El-Ninos for 2001-2009:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

Which should affect equatorial surface temperatures more than a cooling in the stratosphere (due to lower RH at the tropopause), by a factor of 5. This 25% cooling equation result doesn’t jive, it would be observed as a disparity at the equator mostly, I calculate equatorial ( GISS data for latitudes 24 North-24 South) surface temperature anomaly of +.30 for 1990-2000 while its +0.44 C for 2001-2009. Dr Solomon needs to explain where this cooling has occurred. If she means its near the Stratosphere, she may be right, yet that doesn’t slow Global Warming, but is as #73 Gavin statement infers part of Global Warming.


See comment 128.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/01/the-wisdom-of-solomon/comment-page-3/#comment s
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
760. GeoffreyWPB
4:51 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting LongStrangeTrip:
Time elapsed since the EQ: 2 weeks, 5 days.
Hours worked: just shy of 24/7.
Progress made: Immense!
Small miracles: Countless!

Please donate to Portlight and keep the progress rolling and the miracles coming!!

www.portlight.org

(Sorry, I'm using Google Chrome and the buttons for posting links are "invisible"!!)


Firsts posts from that evening:

156. Chucktown 5:08 PM EST on January 12, 2010

804
wexx22 paaq 122203
tibat1

tsunami information statement number 1
nws west coast/alaska tsunami warning center palmer ak
603 pm ast tue jan 12 2010

...this tsunami information statement is for puerto rico/ the virgin islands/ the u.s. atlantic and gulf of mexico states/ and eastern canadian provinces...

no warning... no watch and no advisory is in effect for these areas.

evaluation
based on earthquake data and historic tsunami records the earthquake was not sufficient to generate a tsunami damaging to puerto rico/ the virgin islands/ the u.s. atlantic and gulf of mexico coasts/ and eastern canada.

however - earthquakes of this size sometimes generate tsunamis that can be destructive along coasts located in the region of the earthquake epicenter. authorities in the region should be aware of this possibility and take appropriate action.

preliminary earthquake parameters
magnitude - 7.3
time - 1653 est jan 12 2010
1753 ast jan 12 2010
2153 utc jan 12 2010
location - 18.5 north 72.5 west
- haiti region
depth - 21 miles/33 km

162. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 5:24 PM EST on January 12, 2010

Wow--that earthquake is scary! I wonder how many people will be killed in Haiti--the infrastructure there is so poor. :(

There have been some very strong earthquakes on the north side of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico that fortunately did not generate ocean crossing tsunamis:

August 4, 1946 Dominican Republic--magnitude 8.0 Lat 19.25 north, Lon 69 W.

I am glad no tsunami is heading this way! But the poor, poor people of Haiti. They just don't get a break!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11012
759. pmagn
4:45 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
The evidence is becoming oppressive...

Pentagon to rank global warming as destabilising force
US defence review says military planners should factor climate change into long-term strategy
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/31/pentagon-ranks-global-warming-destabilising-force?showa llcomments=true#end-of-comments
Member Since: July 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
758. AwakeInMaryland
4:37 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting taco2me61:
well I'm out for the night all have a Great evening and will check in tomorrow..... Need to keep a close eye out for the next "Big Winter Freeze"....

Taco :0)


Wow, the next one, phew -- we're going to be dealing with black ice in the morning from yesterday's snowfall -- which was actually lovely here, just a few inches, light and fluffy. Schools are delayed or cancelled.

Good night from me, too.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
757. LongStrangeTrip
4:33 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Time elapsed since the EQ: 2 weeks, 5 days.
Hours worked: just shy of 24/7.
Progress made: Immense!
Small miracles: Countless!

Please donate to Portlight and keep the progress rolling and the miracles coming!!

www.portlight.org

(Sorry, I'm using Google Chrome and the buttons for posting links are "invisible"!!)
Member Since: July 10, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 412
756. tornadodude
4:33 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Freezing Fog Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2010

...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING...

.CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO FINALLY OCCUR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NORTH TEXAS EVENING. THE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS...SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND MOIST SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL
WILL ALL COMBINE FOR FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP. WHERE AND HOW
WIDESPREAD ARE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...WHERE FREEZING FOG DOES DEVELOP...
LIGHT DEPOSITS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011030-
/O.NEW.KFWD.ZF.Y.0001.100201T0600Z-100201T1500Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
1005 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2010

...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM CST
MONDAY.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...ANY THICKER FOG WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEPOSIT
A LIGHT FILM OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...RESULTING IN SLICK AREAS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO NEAR A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. IF DRIVING OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND
LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. BE ALERT FOR ICY SPOTS
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AS THEY TEND TO BECOME
SLICK QUICKLY.

&&

$$

05/




Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
755. GeoffreyWPB
4:33 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Quoting taco2me61:
well I'm out for the night all have a Great evening and will check in tomorrow..... Need to keep a close eye out for the next "Big Winter Freeze"....

Taco :0)


That narrows it down :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11012
754. taco2me61
4:31 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
well I'm out for the night all have a Great evening and will check in tomorrow..... Need to keep a close eye out for the next "Big Winter Freeze"....

Taco :0)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3242
753. drg0dOwnCountry
4:26 AM GMT on February 01, 2010
Is the climate sensitivity to ozone perturbations enhanced by stratospheric water vapor feedback?
The climate response to a set of idealized ozone perturbations is investigated by integrations with a coupled atmosphere‐ocean model. Although all perturbations, including a homogeneous CO2 increase, induce the same stratosphere adjusted, tropopause radiative forcing, the climate response is quite variable within the set of experiments. Except for an upper tropospheric ozone increase, our model is more sensitive to ozone perturbations than to an equivalent CO2 perturbation. This applies in particular to a lower stratospheric ozone increase. The accompanying changes in the stratospheric water vapor (SWV) distribution are found to impose additional forcings on climate that may well exceed the forcings due to the original perturbations. Without SWV feedback on radiation the climate sensitivity to a lower stratospheric ozone increase draws remarkably near the respective value for equivalent CO2. This emphasizes the crucial role SWV may have in the forcing‐response relationship.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/2001GL013000.shtml
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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