Stratospheric water vapor decline credited with slowing global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:18 PM GMT on January 29, 2010

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After a steep rise in global average temperatures in the 1990s, the 2000s have seen relatively flat temperatures, despite increasing levels of CO2 emissions by humans. This reduced warming may be partially due to a sharp decrease in stratospheric water vapor that began after 2000, according to research published yesterday in Science by a team of researchers led by Dr. Susan Solomon of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas capable of significantly warming the planet, and its potency is much higher when it is located in the lower stratosphere where temperatures are extremely cold. Greenhouse gases located in cold regions of the atmosphere are more effective at heating the planet because they absorb heat radiation from the Earth's relatively warm surface, but then re-emit energy at a much colder temperature, resulting in less heat energy lost to space. Even though stratospheric water vapor can exist at concentrations more than 100 times lower than at the surface, the 10% drop in stratospheric water vapor since 2000 noted by Solomon et al. acted to slow down global warming by 25% between 2000 - 2009, compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.


Figure 1. Stratospheric water vapor in the tropics, between 5°S - 5°N, as measured by the HALOE instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), between 1993 - 2005. The bottom portion of the plot shows the lower stratosphere, just above where tall thunderstorms are able to transport water vapor into the stratosphere. A strong yearly cycle is evident in the water vapor, due to the seasonal variation in heavy thunderstorms over the tropics. Once in the lower stratosphere, the waver vapor takes about 1.2 years to travel to the upper stratosphere, as seen in the bending of the contours to the right with height. Note that beginning in 2001, very low water vapor concentrations less than 2.2 parts per million by volume (ppmv) began appearing in the lower stratosphere, due to substantial cooling. Image credit: Rosenlof, K. H., and G. C. Reid (2008), Trends in the temperature and water vapor content of the tropical lower stratosphere: Sea surface connection, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06107, doi:10.1029/2007JD009109.

The observations
We haven't been able to observe water vapor in the stratosphere very long--accurate global measurements only go back to 1991, when the HALOE instrument aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) began taking data (Figure 1). Stratospheric water vapor showed an increase of about 0.5 parts per million by volume (ppmv) during the 1990s. But after 2000, a sudden drop of 0.4 ppmv was observed, and this decrease has persisted into 2009. To see how these changes impacted the amount of global warming, Solomon et al. fed the observations into a specialized high-resolution model that computed the change in heat from the fluctuating water vapor levels. They found that the increase in stratospheric water vapor in the 1990s led to about a 30% increase in the amount of global warming observed during that decade, and the decrease of 0.4 ppmv since 2000 led to a 25% reduction between 2000 - 2009.

How water vapor gets into the stratosphere
The stratosphere has two main sources of water vapor: transport from the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) via tall thunderstorms, and the chemical breakdown of methane gas into water vapor and carbon dioxide. With regard to greenhouse effect warming, transport of water vapor by thunderstorms is the most important source, since this mechanism delivers water vapor to the lowest part of the stratosphere, where temperatures are coldest and greenhouse gases are more effective at warming the climate. There is a limit as to how much water vapor that can enter the stratosphere via thunderstorms, though. Temperature decreases with altitude from the surface to the bottom of the stratosphere, where they begin to rise with height due to the solar energy-absorbing effect of the stratospheric ozone layer. As moisture-laden air rises in thunderstorms towards the lower stratosphere, it encounters the atmosphere's "cold point"--the coldest point in the lower atmosphere, at the base of the stratosphere. Since the amount of water vapor that can be present in the atmosphere decreases as the temperature gets colder, and moisture being transported to the stratosphere must traverse through the "cold point" of the atmosphere, the air gets "freeze dried" and loses most of its moisture.


Figure 2. The departure from average of tropopause temperature (dark line) and Sea Surface Temperature (light dashed line) for the tropical Pacific Ocean between 10°S - 10°N, from 1981 - 2007. The tropopause is the bottom boundary of the stratosphere. The SST data is for 139°W - 171°W longitude, and is from the NOAA Optimal Interpolation v2 data set. The tropopause data is from balloon soundings, for the region 171°W - 200°W. The SST is plotted so that the anomalies increase as one looks down. Note that prior to about 2000, tropopause temperatures and SSTs increased and decreased together, but that beginning in 2000 - 2001, a sharp climate shift occurred, and the two quantities became anti-correlated. The sudden drop in tropopause temperature in 2000 - 2001 caused a sharp drop in stratospheric water vapor. Image credit: Rosenlof, K. H., and G. C. Reid (2008), Trends in the temperature and water vapor content of the tropical lower stratosphere: Sea surface connection, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06107, doi:10.1029/2007JD009109.

Why did stratospheric water vapor drop in 2000?
Tall thunderstorms capable of delivering water vapor into the stratosphere occur primarily in the tropics, particularly over the Western Pacific, where a huge warm pool with very high Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) exists. In 2000, this region experienced a sharp increase in SST of 0.25°C, which has remained consistent though the 2000s (Figure 2). Coincident with this increase in SST came a sharp drop in the "cold point" temperature of the tropopause--the lower boundary of the stratosphere. This reduction in "cold point" temperature meant that less water vapor could make it into the stratosphere over the Tropical Pacific, since more thunderstorm water was getting "freeze dried" out. Did global warming trigger this increase in Pacific SST, resulting in cooling of the "cold point" and less water vapor in the stratosphere? Or was it random variation due to some decades-long natural cycle? This key question was left unanswered by the Solomon et al. study, and observations of stratospheric water vapor don't go back far enough to offer a reasonable guess. One factor arguing against global warming having triggered a negative feedback of this nature is that prior to 2000, increases in Western Pacific SST caused increases in "cold point" temperatures--behavior opposite of what has been seen since 2000.

If global warming has triggered the decrease in stratospheric water vapor seen since 2000, it could mean that the climate models have predicted too much global warming, since they don't predict that such a negative feedback exists. On the other hand, if this is a natural cycle, we can expect the recent flattening in global temperatures to average out in the long run, with a return to steeper increases in temperature in the coming decades. Climate models currently do a poor job modeling the complex dynamics of water vapor in the stratosphere, and are not much help figuring out what's going on. Complicating the issue is the fact that about 15% of all thunderstorms capable of delivering water vapor into the stratosphere are generated by tropical cyclones (Rosenlof and Reid, 2008), and tropical cyclones are not well-treated by climate models. We also have to factor in the impact of stratospheric ozone loss, which acts to cool the lower stratosphere. This effect should gradually decrease in future decades as CFC levels decline, though. The stratosphere is a devilishly complicated place that can have a significant impact on global climate change, and we are many years from understanding what is going on there.

References
Romps, D.M., and Z. Kuang, "Overshooting convection in tropical cyclones", Geophysical Research Letters, 2009; 36 (9): L09804 DOI: 10.1029/2009GL037396

Rosenlof, K. H., and G. C. Reid (2008), Trends in the temperature and water vapor content of the tropical lower stratosphere: Sea surface connection, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06107, doi:10.1029/2007JD009109.

Portlight Haiti update
Paul Timmons, who directs the Portlight.org disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, was interviewed by NBC yesterday. The reporter doing the story is planning to follow the Portlight-donated goods to Haiti and interview the people with disabilities that receive the donations. It is uncertain when the story will be aired, but I'll try to give everyone a heads-up.

Next post
My next post will probably be Tuesday (Groundhog's Day), when I plan to discuss Phil's forecast for the rest of winter. I'll throw in my two cents worth, too.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bordonaro:


Chicklit, I am not saying its ok to be a full blown pot-head,


So is half blown okay?


JUST KIDDING!!!!!!!!!

Actually I'm surprised it's not just controlled as a prescription drug. I really don't see it anything different as so many that, over time can be addictive and cause damage if used improperly. Admittedly, I don't know the pharmaceutical pros and cons of this though.
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Quoting Seastep:
KOTG - if CO2 is insignificant in what you present, would you still attack CO2?


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Orcasystems:
191. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:53 AM GMT on January 30, 2010

Hey.... your showing a perfectly innocent Orca in a bad light.

Orca is lurking quietly, as KOG tries to throw Orca, the killer whale, under the bus! I love political cartoons, however, some of them go just a "wee bit" too far.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Global warming is a bit of an err... rough subject for lack of a better word. Best not to get involved in any type of arguments Keeper.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Quoting Bordonaro:


Chicklit, my opinion, in certain cases, is that is should be prescribed in pill form. Excessive use of any drug is not good for you. I am not saying its ok to be a full blown pot-head, I just believe maybe it has a valid use.


Meh. The good old American (brother in law w/leukemia) "I can prescribe this or you could find it on your own" works. ;)
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191. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:53 AM GMT on January 30, 2010

Hey.... your showing a perfectly innocent Orca in a bad light.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Chicklit:

Not if you lose your job it isn't!
fuhgetaboutit. goodnight!


Chicklit, my opinion, in certain cases, is that is should be prescribed in pill form. Excessive use of any drug is not good for you. I am not saying its ok to be a full blown pot-head, I just believe maybe it has a valid use.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
KOTG - if CO2 is insignificant in what you present, would you still attack CO2?
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Climate chief was told of false glacier claims before Copenhagen
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
KOTG... that's called propaganda.

No one is against a cleaner world. But, it is propaganda, in its purist form, to use a colorless, odorless, harmless gas to achieve those goals under false premises.

Do it with truth.
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Patrap and Flood, You guys did a really great Job last night on the Barometer Bob show.He's got some really great info about a lot of topics. I finally sent some money to Portlight. Should have done it a long time ago. I've been promoting Portlight where I think I can get away with it.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
7f with 17 mph winds and gust going up to 30 here in Dover NH. All last night it sounded like a freight train was going through. Not sure but I would guess some of those gust hit 50's
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My friends in NC are seeing HEAVY snow. Good for them.
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You should try winter camping on the side of MT
Washington in Winter. Nothing like a nice crampon jog up from the Randolph Mt club in 25 below to get the heart started. Hard to break a sweat in those temps, plus you'll burn 10K calories per day. Good all around.
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It is interesting that we discovered in the last week some significant items that were not and could not be modeled. The impact of those items on the climate models is pretty much unknown. Here is another. Don't bring up our understanding of cloud formation and solar activity :)

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Quoting Bordonaro:


Pot (is) ... in my opinion, its alot safer than many of the drugs on the market today.

Not if you lose your job it isn't!
fuhgetaboutit. goodnight!
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Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, no kiddin'
pot is illegal...while they approve drugs that mess up your capacity to think 24-7 and aren't even sure how they work (ie. seratonins et al.)
we all know that the world is not fair.
anyway, off to read about FDR's rise from elite opulence to populist prez.


Pot has a valid medical use, it is a 100% natural drug which has relatively few side effects, it can be used for glacoma, weight gain for HIV patients, used to reduce/stop migranes, etc. While excess usage can cause memory loss, and a "foggy mind", in my opinion, its alot safer than many of the drugs on the market today.

And by the way, thanks a million for the full moon picture. Dallas-Ft Worth, TX will clear out for mid-day Saturday and we should have a crisp, cold 24F Sunday morning, BOOO, HISSS!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Concerning post 107:
On the same theme but more concise in the
encapsulation of the trend and effect:

An explanation for the slowdown in global warming?
Paul Hudson | 14:47 UK time, Friday, 29 January 2010

A fascinating piece of research has been published in the journal Science today.

The article could go some way in explaining why global warming has slowed down in the last 10 years or so, which I wrote about here, with a more detailed analysis you can read here.

The study by scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration looked at water vapour (the most powerful greenhouse gas of all) in the stratosphere. Satellite measurements showed that water vapour levels in the stratosphere have dropped 10% since 2000, and when this was fed into a climate model, could have reduced by 25%, over the last decade, the amount of warming that would ordinarily be expected from greenhouse gases.

Their conclusion? The decline in stratospheric water vapour after 2000 should be expected to have significantly contributed to the flattening of the global warming trend in the last decade.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/01/an-explanation-for-the-slowdow.shtml
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Quoting Bordonaro:


For some of those medications, the cure is worse than the original medical condition. I get a kick out of how they say that certain medications may prove fatal and cause death, like it's no big deal. Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical companies make billions!

yeah, no kiddin'
pot is illegal...while they approve drugs that mess up your capacity to think 24-7 and aren't even sure how they work (ie. seratonins et al.)
we all know that the world is not fair.
anyway, off to read about FDR's rise from elite opulence to populist prez.
ah...here's the moon.
mars the tiny dot to its left.
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Obama Puts Government on Low-Carbon Diet
President Obama ordered the government today to reduce energy use -- cutting everything from the electricity used in office buildings to the petroleum used in fleet vehicles -- in an effort to slash its greenhouse gas emissions 28 percent by 2020.

"As the largest energy consumer in the United States, we have a responsibility to American citizens to reduce our energy use and become more efficient," Obama said in a statement. "Our goal is to lower costs, reduce pollution, and shift federal energy expenses away from oil and towards local, clean energy."
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/01/29/29greenwire-obama-puts-government-on-low-carbon -diet-53501. html


Obama and Gore should just stay home instead
jetting about the planet expelling hot AIR.
That would be an excellent low carbon diet.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Caluskat has a valid point there. No way a drug comes anywhere near FDA approval based on the certainty level. Wouldn't even make it to trial. You gather more data.

Oh puhleese.
Just listen to the disclaimers on the drugs they're approving.


For some of those medications, the cure is worse than the original medical condition. I get a kick out of how they say that certain medications may prove fatal and cause death, like it's no big deal. Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical companies make billions!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Another one bites the dust:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7009081.ece
This is not only political it is now religion, has always been religion (ah mother earth) -- ommmm....
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Quoting Chicklit:

Hi Bordonaro.
Okay, took a picture of the Wolf Moon. Waiting for approval. An ATV rode by while we were snapping it and hit my dog in the mouth!
What a crumb! He's okay, just a little startled.
Who'da thunk?

Sorry about your dog! I hope he's alright! Remember that saying about "karma"? That person will get his, when he least expects it.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting largeeyes:
Is p451 around?

Saw him just a little bit ago, but think he was asquare. ;P
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Caluskat has a valid point there. No way a drug comes anywhere near FDA approval based on the certainty level. Wouldn't even make it to trial. You gather more data.

Oh puhleese. Just listen to the disclaimers on the drugs they're approving...
A low-carb diet and overwork has me out of sorts so leaving before I stink up the place.
My companion H.W. Brands' biography of FDR.
Go Who Dat Nation.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
147. Hey Chicklit, can you take some full moon pics and post them. I am afraid DFW, TX misses out tonight, as it's 33F and overcast!

Hi Bordonaro.
Okay, took a picture of the Wolf Moon. Waiting for approval. An ATV rode by while we were snapping it and hit my dog in the mouth!
What a crumb! He's okay, just a little startled.
Who'da thunk?
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Glad the weather isn't too severe. We had severe thunderstorms SW of Arlington, TX yesterday, we were very fortunate we just had lots of rain, with some lightning and thunder on and off all day, from 10am-9pm at night. We had just short of 2.40" of rain, between 10 am yesterday and 12Noon today. Just overcast, 33F, NW winds blowing at 10-20MPH, we miss out on that big, full moon!


glad it didnt get bad for ya.. i think i might get near 1.50 inches when it gets done.. b/c theres some more showers/Tstorms out there..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Is p451 around?
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BTW, if this proves true, there is much to think about for all interested. I just want the truth, and have not found it yet.....

Exit of Canada's expert a sure sign IPCC in trouble

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Cal, 2 things:

1) Doing nothing (which is what ur post implies we should be doing) is also a decision, and it is also based on the same inadequate tools the Doc described. I thing the Doc's comment was spot on.

2) You got a very different reading of that segment from me. I got, "This data and these instruments is all that's available to us right now. We are FORCED to use it because there's nothing else out there."

I find it amazing that despite the genuinely unbiased nature of this post (very evenhanded presentation, IMO) you manage to nitpick SOMEthing that allows you denigrate AGW supporters and reiterate your anti-AGW stance.


I agree with this somewhat, in terms of the decision one way or the other. As for implications, you imply that doing nothing is one of two decisions. It is really three. Decide false, decide true, or decide to gather more data.

I thought Doc's post was informative and unbiased.

The key, as I see it, is the rush. Why the rush? And the point of no return argument rings false.

As a science, I completely support climate science. But it is a science in its infancy, relatively speaking.

Caluskat has a valid point there. No way a drug comes anywhere near FDA approval based on the certainty level. Wouldn't even make it to trial. You gather more data.
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Water temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have fallen quite a bit over the past month. Especially in Nino regions 1 & 2. If this continues ENSO could transition to a Neutral stage by the start of Hurricane Season.

Today


December 29, 2009
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Wow, evaporative cooling at work. Snow already mixing with the sleet. This should be an interesting night.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
810 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT WILL REDEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SATURDAY THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AND
OFF CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 810 PM FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD BE ENTERING ERN NC WITHIN THE HOUR.
MOST ALL OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORM OF SNOW WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS AS PRECIPITATION IS INITIALLY FALLING INTO A VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER LEADING TO STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
PRECIPITATION GOING QUICKLY TO SNOW. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REPORTED IN THE ILM AREA BUT MOST OF THAT
PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAK (1018 MB) SECONDARY LOW FORMATION STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE WELL
EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. STILL UNCERTAIN TO PREDOMINATE P-TYPE WITH
THIS EVENT. OUR CLIMATOLOGY DOES NOT NORMALLY FAVOR A MAJOR ICE
EVENT...HOWEVER CURRENT CRITICAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE
SNOW INITIALLY COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AT THIS POINT...NOT PLANNING ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
AND WARNINGS AT THIS POINT PENDING ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE.

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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


O wow.. it has been a mess for awhile.. yea im getting more rain.. lol blah but hope she is okay and being safe.. I got sum nice lightning strikes.. and watching winter x games today.. ;)


Glad the weather isn't too severe. We had severe thunderstorms SW of Arlington, TX yesterday, we were very fortunate we just had lots of rain, with some lightning and thunder on and off all day, from 10am-9pm at night. We had just short of 2.40" of rain, between 10 am yesterday and 12Noon today. Just overcast, 33F, NW winds blowing at 10-20MPH, we miss out on that big, full moon!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Located between New Bern and Havelock (Patrap I think it was knows EXACTLY where I am). Radar indicated rain just moved through, but it was most certainly sleet. Very interesting.

Neuse River, New Bern, North Carolina (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
Overcast
36.0 F
Overcast
Windchill: 27 F
Humidity: 47%
Dew Point: 16 F
Wind: 15.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 30.30 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft
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157, just curious. Considering all that is now happening with respect to the IPCC report, you are comfortable with non-scientific opinion from advocacy groups (ie. WWF on many) making global policy decisions for you? \\

Have a look, this only addresses one of the coming issues with the IPCC> There are many more coming out of the woodwork. I just don't like dishonesty, period. \

IPCC's Himalayan Glacier 'Mistake' No Accident

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
The temperatures here in S. Ontario are supposed to drop to -21C (-6F) tonight and possibly colder. Currently the temperature is -16.2C (3.7F) at my location. The Moon and Mars are rising at sunset and setting at sunrise today with the Beehive Cluster between the two and both will be near their closest to Earth for 2010 and at their brightest of the year.


God... that has to feel miserable. The coldest temperature I have ever been in is 19F.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Hey JG. My daughter lives in Nashville, TN. I believe they have had about 3.5" of snow there and another 3-5" are on the way. Considering their snow season averages about 6 inches of snow, they've got one big freaking mess on their hands!


O wow.. it has been a mess for awhile.. yea im getting more rain.. lol blah but hope she is okay and being safe.. I got sum nice lightning strikes.. and watching winter x games today.. ;)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
The temperatures here in S. Ontario are supposed to drop to -21C (-6F) tonight and possibly colder. Currently the temperature is -16.2C (3.7F) at my location. The Moon and Mars are rising at sunset and setting at sunrise today with the Beehive Cluster between the two and both will be near their closest to Earth for 2010 and at their brightest of the year.
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Sorry cal, if I came off kind of harsh, but ur post came off as a rant instead of as a conscientious objection. I saw so very little in the doc's discussion to justify your responst that I was taken aback.

I found the post quite factual and containing very little if any of the tone you describe and ascribe to the Doc.
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Quoting calusakat:

Well maybe this is news to you, but the predictions are not just created by models. And there is no relation between pharmacy companys and their (often) over hyped products and climate science.
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
hey everyone...



Hey JG. My daughter lives in Nashville, TN. I believe they have had about 3.5" of snow there and another 3-5" are on the way. Considering their snow season averages about 6 inches of snow, they've got one big freaking mess on their hands!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting calusakat:
From Dr Jeff's post

"We are forced to make critical decisions regarding our future using tools inadequate for assessing the degree of risk, unfortunately."

Excuse me? Forced like at the point of a gun or altered (falsified) data?

Hogwash.

We are not forced to make decisions based on information generated by admittedly inadequate tools.

It's called The Church of the IPCC and AGW. It is not science, it is rationalization.

If we used the methodology of todays climatology folks in our medical research, millions would be dying from horribly bad drugs. Thalidomide here we come. BTW...Thalidomide did not, necessarily, kill, it mostly caused horrible defects in the children born to mothers who used it.

Mediocrity is alive and well in the world of climatology.

So very sad.
Cal, 2 things:

1) Doing nothing (which is what ur post implies we should be doing) is also a decision, and it is also based on the same inadequate tools the Doc described. I thing the Doc's comment was spot on.

2) You got a very different reading of that segment from me. I got, "This data and these instruments is all that's available to us right now. We are FORCED to use it because there's nothing else out there."

I find it amazing that despite the genuinely unbiased nature of this post (very evenhanded presentation, IMO) you manage to nitpick SOMEthing that allows you denigrate AGW supporters and reiterate your anti-AGW stance.
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Quoting Patrap:


The Patch is from the Portlight "Florida Disaster Response Team"

..and the words are from Our Mission Statement on the portlight.org Home page.

Glad you found it interesting..Bob.


Read the Portlight link, my prayers are the God makes a way to get more needed assets on the ground in Haiti ASAP. I know the NBC/CNN news stories will help quite a bit.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:
Hey Patrap, that synopsis of what Portlight Strategies does was very nicely put together, and I love their patch.


The Patch is from the Portlight "Florida Disaster Response Team"

..and the words are from Our Mission Statement on the portlight.org Home page.

Glad you found it interesting..Bob.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
hey everyone...

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting calusakat:
If we used the methodology of todays climatology folks in our medical research, millions would be dying from horribly bad drugs. Thalidomide here we come. BTW...Thalidomide did not, necessarily, kill, it mostly caused horrible defects in the children born to mothers who used it.

Mediocrity is alive and well in the world of climatology.

So very sad.



As a DES daughter, I am always considering that science/medicine is not perfect. With time, changes happen. What we once believed as gospel may in fact be at best fraudulent at worst, harmful.

We spent so much time on global warming/climate change in grad school. I am convinced global warming, as a belief system, is more political than not. Forty years down the road, the general population will be as familiar with is as they now are with something like The Population Bomb.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron