Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A new world record wind gust: 253 mph in Australia's Tropical Cyclone Olivia
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:34 PM GMT on January 27, 2010 +6
The 6,288-foot peak of New Hampshire's Mount Washington is a forbidding landscape of wind-swept barren rock, home to some of planet Earth's fiercest winds. As a 5-year old boy, I remember being blown over by a terrific gust of wind on the summit, and rolling out of control towards a dangerous drop-off before a fortuitously-placed rock saved me. Perusing the Guinness Book of World Records as a kid, three iconic world weather records always held a particular mystique and fascination for me: the incredible 136°F (57.8°C) at El Azizia, Libya in 1922, the -128.5°F (-89.2°C) at the "Pole of Cold" in Vostok, Antarctica in 1983, and the amazing 231 mph wind gust (103.3 m/s) recorded in 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. Well, the legendary winds of Mount Washington have to take second place now, next to the tropical waters of northwest Australia. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the new world wind speed record at the surface is a 253 mph (113.2 m/s) wind gust measured on Barrow Island, Australia. The gust occurred on April 10, 1996, during passage of the eyewall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Olivia.


Figure 1. Instruments coated with rime ice on the summit of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire. Image credit: Mike Theiss.

Tropical Cyclone Olivia
Tropical Cyclone Olivia was a Category 4 storm on the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale, and generated sustained winds of 145 mph (1-minute average) as it crossed over Barrow Island off the northwest coast of Australia on April 10, 1996. Olivia had a central pressure of 927 mb and an eye 45 miles in diameter at the time, and generated waves 21 meters (69 feet) high offshore. According to Black et al. (1999), the eyewall likely had a tornado-scale mesovortex embedded in it that caused the extreme wind gust of 253 mph. The gust was measured at the standard measuring height of 10 meters above ground, on ground at an elevation of 64 meters (210 feet). A similar mesovortex was encountered by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Hurricane Hugo of 1989, and a mesovortex was also believed to be responsible for the 239 mph wind gust measured at 1400 meters by a dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel in 2003. For reference, 200 mph is the threshold for the strongest category of tornado, the EF-5, and any gusts of this strength are capable of causing catastrophic damage.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Olivia a few hours before it crossed Barrow Island, Australia, setting a new world-record wind gust of 253 mph. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 3. Wind trace taken at Barrow Island, Australia during Tropical Cyclone Olivia. Image credit: Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.

Why did it take so long for the new record to be announced?
The instrument used to take the world record wind gust was funded by a private company, Chevron, and Chevron's data was not made available to forecasters at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) during the storm. After the storm, the tropical cyclone experts at BOM were made aware of the data, but it was viewed as suspect, since the gusts were so extreme and the data was taken with equipment of unknown accuracy. Hence, the observations were not included in the post-storm report. Steve Buchan from RPS MetOcean believed in the accuracy of the observations, and coauthored a paper on the record gust, presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston (Buchan et al., 1999). The data lay dormant until 2009, when Joe Courtney of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was made aware of it. Courtney wrote up a report, coauthored with Steve Buchan, and presented this to the WMO extremes committee for ratification. The report has not been made public yet, and is awaiting approval by Chevron. The verified data will be released next month at a World Meteorological Organization meeting in Turkey, when the new world wind record will become official.

New Hampshire residents are not happy
Residents of New Hampshire are understandably not too happy about losing their cherished claim to fame. The current home page of the Mount Washington Observatory reads, "For once, the big news on Mount Washington isn't our extreme weather. Sadly, it's about how our extreme weather--our world record wind speed, to be exact--was outdone by that of a warm, tropical island".

Comparison with other wind records
Top wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 239 mph (107 m/s) at an altitude of 1400 meters, measured by dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel (2003).
Top surface wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 211 mph (94.4 m/s), Hurricane Gustav, Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station in the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, on the afternoon of August 30, 2008.
Top wind in a tornado: 302 mph (135 m/s), measured via Doppler radar at an altitude of 100 meters (330 feet), in the Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado of May 3, 1999.
Top surface wind not associated with a tropical cyclone or tornado: 231 mph (103.3 m/s), April 12, 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire.
Top wind in a typhoon: 191 mph (85.4 m/s) on Taiwanese Island of Lanya, Super Typhoon Ryan, Sep 22, 1995; also on island of Miyakojima, Super Typhoon Cora, Sep 5, 1966.
Top surface wind not measured on a mountain or in a tropical cyclone: 207 mph (92.5 m/s) measured in Greenland at Thule Air Force Base on March 6, 1972.
Top wind measured in a U.S. hurricane: 186 mph (83.1 m/s) measured at Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts, during the 1938 New England Hurricane.

References
Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.

Black, P.G., Buchan, S.J., and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Mesovortex: A Physical Mechanism Explaining Extreme Peak Gust Occurrence in TC Olivia, 4 April 1996 on Barrow Island, Australia", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.

Jeff Masters
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251. hydrus 1:41 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
all good but what if when a large land area slides into the sea they create the mother tsunami some as high as an 80 story building
Thats surf-able if the break is right. Maybe a nice tube.
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252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 1:44 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    








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253. AstroHurricane001 1:48 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
The former northeast storm appears to be drifting southward in the Mid-Atlantic, and strengthening.

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254. Floodman 1:48 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


I've been empathizing with AstroHurricane001 - He has complained (more than once) about Texas getting more snow than where he lives in Ontario. I'm in SW Michigan. We got a couple of feet of snow earlier this month but most of it melted with the recent rain/thaw. I'm happy to see it snowing again. We get a lot of lake-effect snow here.

The timing of the new snow is great. I'm a volunteer at Fernwood Botanical Garden and we are taking local school kids on a hike in the woods on Friday to look for and identify animal tracks. (Predicted high is 17F - better dig out my long underwear.)


Wow, that sounds like fun! I love working with kids, and looking in new fallen snow for animal tracks? Absolute coolness...
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255. Patrap 1:50 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
all good but what if when a large land area slides into the sea they create the mother tsunami some as high as an 80 story building


Thats called a landslide tsunami,..but they are local save for one in a million.



Now a GOM or Pacific Meteor Impact of say a Kilometer or a Mile wide,..impacting at 8.78 Kilometers a sec,
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256. AstroHurricane001 1:51 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Wowza!

GFS storm #1, February 7:



Storm #2, February 12:

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257. tornadodude 1:58 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
So not gonna lie, sitting on the futon, watching tv, eating oreos and milk while watching the snow fall is pretty nice
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258. drg0dOwnCountry 2:01 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Can it be that the NAO anomaly causes a major shift in precipitation? Meaning that the seasonal ice extend at the poles is effected - shifts more to the equator regions of the planet(siberian deep freeze express).
Limiting the seasonal natural ice extend at the poles.
Yesterday someone posted a NAO forecast which showed an extending negative NAO anomaly for the upcoming month.
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259. Floodman 2:03 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
The wunderground server is Located in San Francisco


In running an IP locator the current physical location for the IP address for the Wunderground server is Washington DC...every other IP I've run through the software is correct; is it possible that there is a re-direct in place?
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260. Floodman 2:04 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Hey Aussie!
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261. hydrus 2:06 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:


Thats called a landslide tsunami,..but they are local save for one in a million.

Now a GOM or Pacific Meteor Impact of say a Kilometer or a Mile wide,..impacting at 8.78 Kilometers a sec,
Or a 6 mile wide asteroid weighing 14,560- million tonnes moving at 60,000 mph lands in the Pacific which has an average depth well over 10,000 feet would still slam through the ocean and the earths crust in a split second causing a 100 mile high tidal wave and explode planetary debris into ballistic orbit around the earth then gravitate back to the world in the form of giant fireballs causing conflagrations on all the land masses while darkening the atmosphere to the point of black ruining all of our plans for that day...:)
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262. Patrap 2:06 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
U betcha..
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264. drg0dOwnCountry 2:07 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting tornadodude:
So not gonna lie, sitting on the futon, watching tv, eating oreos and milk while watching the snow fall is pretty nice

The last couple of hours we had up to 2-3 inch drifting snow which covers now cars and already iced (up to 8 inch) sidewalks.
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265. tornadodude 2:09 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
How many oreos t-dude? :)


haha probably a row :P

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

The last couple of hours we had up to 2-3 inch drifting snow which covers now cars and already iced (up to 8 inch) sidewalks.


where are you from?
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266. hydrus 2:10 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
U betcha..
Well, you wont need any lighter fluid for the cook out.
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267. drg0dOwnCountry 2:12 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
tornadodude im from germany.
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268. tornadodude 2:14 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
tornadodude im from germany.


oh wow, thats cool
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269. tornadodude 2:14 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
261

that sounds a bit intense :P haha
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270. winter123 2:15 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
I was at mt. washington this summer. Lucky enough to get a sunny afternoon. Truly beautiful place. Especially the two lakes on the very top of a neighboring ridge. But I don't see the issue, already they were saying something odd like "fastest straight line winds ever recorded" now they just have to change it to "Top surface wind not associated with a tropical cyclone or tornado".
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271. tornadodude 2:17 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting winter123:
I was at mt. washington this summer. Lucky enough to get a sunny afternoon. Truly beautiful place. Especially the two lakes on the very top of a neighboring ridge. But I don't see the issue, already they were saying something odd like "fastest straight line winds ever recorded" now they just have to change it to "Top surface wind not associated with a tropical cyclone or tornado".


I love that area up there. I was up there a couple summers ago. My parents used to live in the Glens Falls New York area, in fact I flew up there over Christmas break
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272. Ossqss 2:20 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated

A response from Mr. Wattsup with that relating to yesterdays blog.

Its only fair./ Please feel free to ignore it :)



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273. drg0dOwnCountry 2:48 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Conservationists urge Gordon Brown to create 'Britain's Great Barrier Reef'

This week the 10,000th person joined a campaign to create the Earth's biggest marine protected area in the Chagos archipelago
The Chagos archipelago (map here), part of the British Indian Ocean Territory, is a group of 55 tropical islands over half a million square kilometres of Indian Ocean that have belonged to Britain since they were captured from France in 1814 during the Napoleonic Wars. The islands include Diego Garcia, the site of a controversial joint British-American military base.

The archipelago boasts the world's largest coral atoll and the world's cleanest, most pristine waters, that are home to at least 220 coral species and more than 1,000 species of fish. The underwater landscape of 6,000m deep trenches, oceanic ridges and sea mounts, is also a refuge and breeding ground for large and important populations of sharks, dolphins, marine turtles, rare crabs, birds and other vulnerable species. It is Britain's greatest area of marine biodiversity.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/27/gordon-brown-britain-great-barrier-reef


'Big freeze' makes this year's Big Garden Birdwatch more important than ever

By taking part, you will be contributing valuable data that over the years has raised awareness of some shocking declines in garden bird numbers

This weekend is the RSPB's Big Garden Birdwatch. We're we're asking you to count the birds that you see in your garden for one hour over the two days and let us know your results. At dawn or dusk, while you're eating your lunch or during a quiet hour in the afternoon - it doesn't matter when. This year the results should be even more interesting than usual, following the "big freeze".

By taking part, you will be contributing valuable data that over the years has raised the alert about some shocking declines in garden bird numbers. In previous years the birdwatch has highlighted the massive reduction in numbers of song thrushes, house sparrows and starlings which we've subsequently been able to act upon and do our utmost to start reversing. And the survey has also given us happy news over the years, for example, showing increases in collared dove and blackcap numbers, which are beautiful additions to any garden.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2010/jan/27/rspb-big-garden-birdwatch

Holocene extinction
The Holocene extinction is the widespread, ongoing extinction of species during the present Holocene epoch. The large number of extinctions span numerous families of plants and animals including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and arthropods; a sizeable fraction of these extinctions are occurring in the rainforests. Between 1500 and 2009 CE, 875 extinctions have been documented by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources.[1] However, since most extinctions go undocumented, scientists estimate that during the 20th century, between 20,000 and two million species actually became extinct, but the precise total cannot be determined more accurately within the limits of present knowledge. Up to 140,000 species per year (based on Species-area theory)[2] may be the present rate of extinction based upon upper bound estimating.

In broad usage, Holocene extinction includes the notable disappearance of large mammals, known as megafauna, starting 10,000 years ago as humans developed and spread. Such disappearances have been considered as either a response to climate change, a result of the proliferation of modern humans, or both. These extinctions, occurring near the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary, are sometimes referred to as the Quaternary extinction event or Ice Age extinction. However the Holocene extinction may be regarded as continuing into the 21st century.

The Golden Toad of Costa Rica, extinct since around 1989. Its disappearance has been attributed to climate change.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_mass_extinction
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274. winter123 2:53 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
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275. hydrus 3:10 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting tornadodude:
261

that sounds a bit intense :P haha
Intense indeed. It has happened more than once on this good Earth. It is an established fact.... I believe it is going to be slippery and frigid around here soon.
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278. hydrus 3:15 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Jeff9641:
It's been since 1998 that I've seen the models depict this much rain for February. During that year a F4 tornado hit near my high school in Sanford FL and killed many of my classmates at 12:30am on 2/23/98. I fear a similar situation maybe on the way in Central Florida in the coming weeks. Some of my friends remember cows dropping out of the sky just after the tornado passed. Many houses in the Lake Jessup area were destroyed with nothing but brick foundations left.
I remember that. I am so sorry about your classmates.
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280. Floodman 3:19 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting hydrus:
Intense indeed. It has happened more than once on this good Earth. It is an established fact.


There is a 121 mile wide crater in the GOM (and partly on the Yucatan) from an impact some 65 million years ago
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281. natrwalkn 3:24 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Whoa!! Looks like we're going to get a LOT of snow here in Greensboro, NC!!
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282. BtnTx 3:25 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
..
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284. natrwalkn 3:28 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Jeff9641:


Could be all ice or snow 50/50 right now. Western NC will diffently get hammered.


Yeah, it's a close call for us. The local mets are thinking it's mostly going to be snow here in the Triad
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285. hydrus 3:29 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Floodman:


There is a 121 mile wide crater in the GOM (and partly on the Yucatan) from an impact some 65 million years ago
That is the Chixulub crater centered on the Yucatan Peninsula not to far from Merida. It is exactly 65 million years old. I hope you are doing well FloodMan. We have talked about this crater here on the blog. Somebody said you were watching it and rolling one as it was striking the earths surface... You were probably pretty young then.
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286. Floodman 3:38 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting hydrus:
That is the Chichalube crater centered on the Yucatan Peninsula not to far from Merida. It is exactly 65 million years old. I hope you are doing well FloodMan. We have talked about this crater here on the blog. Somebody said you were watching it and rolling one as it was striking the earths surface... You were probably pretty young then.


LOL...it was spectacular...
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287. AussieStorm 3:39 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Floodman:
Hey Aussie!

Hey Flood, how's it going mate!
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288. AussieStorm 3:41 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting tornadodude:


that is true.

oh hey Aussie,

I might be going to Sydney to study abroad this summer, depending on how much financial aid I can get. I think it is from May 8th through July something

Cool, let me know and we'll meet up and have a few cold one's.
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289. beell 3:42 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Floodman:


There is a 121 mile wide crater in the GOM (and partly on the Yucatan) from an impact some 65 million years ago


A small (4 mi) crater in Alabama-81 million years ago.

Wetumpka Meteor Crater
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290. AussieStorm 3:43 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting PcolaDan:


Because of your proximity to the rest of the world, I expect your time to be a little longer. Curious what it is to Australian web sites.

I did a ping test to a local website. Average was 35ms.
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291. AussieStorm 3:48 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    



TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST] Thursday 28 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield,
in the Northern Territory, to Burketown, in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt
and Mornington Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Pormpuraaw.

At 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 25
kilometres north northwest of Borroloola and 225 kilometres south of Alyangula,
moving west northwest at 2 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore later today where
it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, overnight or early
Friday morning. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far
east as Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, tonight.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Pormpuraaw within the next 24
hours. However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory
coast and adjacent islands between Bing Bong and the Queensland Border tonight.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast elsewhere between
Cape Shield in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland today.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield in the Northern
Territory, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 pm CST [2:30pm EST]. If you are
unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 136.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 2 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Thursday 28 January [2:30 pm EST
Thursday 28 January].
______________________________________________________________________________________________

I'm off to work now, catch ya's later
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292. Patrap 3:49 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...it was spectacular...


I kinda thought the reds and purples really stood out against the conflagration that Evening..



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293. tornadodude 3:53 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting AussieStorm:

Cool, let me know and we'll meet up and have a few cold one's.


sounds good, I'm not sure if I am going or not, but I definitely want to
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294. GrtLksQuest 3:54 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:










I would love to watch these but I am now ready to head for bed. Is there a way to download and save for future viewing?
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295. tornadodude 3:59 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
so, everytime I run a ping test, the window only stays open for a couple seconds, why?
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296. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:59 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting natrwalkn:
Whoa!! Looks like we're going to get a LOT of snow here in Greensboro, NC!!


here is GFS/MRF 240 HRS OUT PARADE OF STORMS

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297. weatherbro 3:59 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Can it be that the NAO anomaly causes a major shift in precipitation? Meaning that the seasonal ice extend at the poles is effected - shifts more to the equator regions of the planet(siberian deep freeze express).
Limiting the seasonal natural ice extend at the poles.
Yesterday someone posted a NAO forecast which showed an extending negative NAO anomaly for the upcoming month.


Also the AO is forecasted to go as negative as -7 next month.

Quoting Jeff9641:


With all of this rain in forecast because of numerous lows coming out of the GOM then next couple weeks I fear another outbreak is coming.


Add to that a potent dose of arctic air and we're in real trouble!

This time around...There ain't no southeast ridge(in the Caribbean) to protect us(this next front is forecast to completely destroy it).

Good news if you hate stalled out fronts, muggy air, and continuous downpours/stale air like we had in early December(especially south Florida). As these fronts should quickly slide through the state(as is typical for El Nino).

But bad news if you also hate severe thunderstorms(organized squall lines) and cold air as models have also been persistent in reopening the Siberian floodgates!!!

JB is forecasting another possible Wintery event(for the Peninsula) sometime later next month. A combination of an active Southern Stream coupled with a return to the cold we saw earlier this month makes me think Joe Bastardi is up to something.
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298. hydrus 4:01 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:


I kinda thought the reds and purples really stood out against the conflagration that Evening..



The reds and purples you saw was from the Christmas bud, not atmospherics.
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299. indianrivguy 4:02 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:


I kinda thought the reds and purples really stood out against the conflagration that Evening..



ahh the days of Purple Ozly and Orange Sunshine... with Natures Way playing in the background
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300. BtnTx 4:04 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
I am looking forward to Cyclone Oz getting his book web site fixed. I think he has a great story to tell!
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301. tornadodude 4:06 AM GMT on January 28, 2010    
wow, I ping purdue.edu and I get 1ms
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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