A new world record wind gust: 253 mph in Australia's Tropical Cyclone Olivia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 27, 2010

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The 6,288-foot peak of New Hampshire's Mount Washington is a forbidding landscape of wind-swept barren rock, home to some of planet Earth's fiercest winds. As a 5-year old boy, I remember being blown over by a terrific gust of wind on the summit, and rolling out of control towards a dangerous drop-off before a fortuitously-placed rock saved me. Perusing the Guinness Book of World Records as a kid, three iconic world weather records always held a particular mystique and fascination for me: the incredible 136°F (57.8°C) at El Azizia, Libya in 1922, the -128.5°F (-89.2°C) at the "Pole of Cold" in Vostok, Antarctica in 1983, and the amazing 231 mph wind gust (103.3 m/s) recorded in 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. Well, the legendary winds of Mount Washington have to take second place now, next to the tropical waters of northwest Australia. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the new world wind speed record at the surface is a 253 mph (113.2 m/s) wind gust measured on Barrow Island, Australia. The gust occurred on April 10, 1996, during passage of the eyewall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Olivia.


Figure 1. Instruments coated with rime ice on the summit of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire. Image credit: Mike Theiss.

Tropical Cyclone Olivia
Tropical Cyclone Olivia was a Category 4 storm on the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale, and generated sustained winds of 145 mph (1-minute average) as it crossed over Barrow Island off the northwest coast of Australia on April 10, 1996. Olivia had a central pressure of 927 mb and an eye 45 miles in diameter at the time, and generated waves 21 meters (69 feet) high offshore. According to Black et al. (1999), the eyewall likely had a tornado-scale mesovortex embedded in it that caused the extreme wind gust of 253 mph. The gust was measured at the standard measuring height of 10 meters above ground, on ground at an elevation of 64 meters (210 feet). A similar mesovortex was encountered by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Hurricane Hugo of 1989, and a mesovortex was also believed to be responsible for the 239 mph wind gust measured at 1400 meters by a dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel in 2003. For reference, 200 mph is the threshold for the strongest category of tornado, the EF-5, and any gusts of this strength are capable of causing catastrophic damage.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Olivia a few hours before it crossed Barrow Island, Australia, setting a new world-record wind gust of 253 mph. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 3. Wind trace taken at Barrow Island, Australia during Tropical Cyclone Olivia. Image credit: Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.

Why did it take so long for the new record to be announced?
The instrument used to take the world record wind gust was funded by a private company, Chevron, and Chevron's data was not made available to forecasters at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) during the storm. After the storm, the tropical cyclone experts at BOM were made aware of the data, but it was viewed as suspect, since the gusts were so extreme and the data was taken with equipment of unknown accuracy. Hence, the observations were not included in the post-storm report. Steve Buchan from RPS MetOcean believed in the accuracy of the observations, and coauthored a paper on the record gust, presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston (Buchan et al., 1999). The data lay dormant until 2009, when Joe Courtney of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was made aware of it. Courtney wrote up a report, coauthored with Steve Buchan, and presented this to the WMO extremes committee for ratification. The report has not been made public yet, and is awaiting approval by Chevron. The verified data will be released next month at a World Meteorological Organization meeting in Turkey, when the new world wind record will become official.

New Hampshire residents are not happy
Residents of New Hampshire are understandably not too happy about losing their cherished claim to fame. The current home page of the Mount Washington Observatory reads, "For once, the big news on Mount Washington isn't our extreme weather. Sadly, it's about how our extreme weather--our world record wind speed, to be exact--was outdone by that of a warm, tropical island".

Comparison with other wind records
Top wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 239 mph (107 m/s) at an altitude of 1400 meters, measured by dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel (2003).
Top surface wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 211 mph (94.4 m/s), Hurricane Gustav, Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station in the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, on the afternoon of August 30, 2008.
Top wind in a tornado: 302 mph (135 m/s), measured via Doppler radar at an altitude of 100 meters (330 feet), in the Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado of May 3, 1999.
Top surface wind not associated with a tropical cyclone or tornado: 231 mph (103.3 m/s), April 12, 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire.
Top wind in a typhoon: 191 mph (85.4 m/s) on Taiwanese Island of Lanyu, Super Typhoon Ryan, Sep 22, 1995; also on island of Miyakojima, Super Typhoon Cora, Sep 5, 1966.
Top surface wind not measured on a mountain or in a tropical cyclone: 207 mph (92.5 m/s) measured in Greenland at Thule Air Force Base on March 6, 1972.
Top wind measured in a U.S. hurricane: 186 mph (83.1 m/s) measured at Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts, during the 1938 New England Hurricane.

References
Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.

Black, P.G., Buchan, S.J., and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Mesovortex: A Physical Mechanism Explaining Extreme Peak Gust Occurrence in TC Olivia, 4 April 1996 on Barrow Island, Australia", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmoaggie:
So far, SPC isn't all that excited about the potential for severe WX tomorrow along the gulf coast:



Seems the "Damaging T-Storms" might be a little too strong here:


Ya probably.. i still believe we get thunderstorms it sum may be strong tho.. That L is looking good and looks like the moisture is ready to wrap around soon..
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Looks like i will get severe weather probably sum time in the evening.. :(


I mean the evenin of friday.. lol whoops ;)
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So far, SPC isn't all that excited about the potential for severe WX tomorrow along the gulf coast:



Seems the "Damaging T-Storms" might be a little too strong here:
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Floodman - mail.
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Wow...I killed the blog!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Floridano, you have WUMail
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Quoting Bordonaro:

SmileyCentral.com

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been put into affect for the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Metroplex


Looks like i will get severe weather probably sum time in the evening.. :(
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Interesting. (Published yesterday.)

A 10 percent drop in water vapor ten miles above Earth's surface has had a big impact on global warming, say researchers in a study published online January 28 in the journal Science. The findings might help explain why global surface temperatures have not risen as fast in the last ten years as they did in the 1980s and 1990s.

---------------

"Current climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface. But this is different %u2014 it's a thin wedge of the upper atmosphere that packs a wallop from one decade to the next in a way we didn't expect," says Susan Solomon, NOAA senior scientist and first author of the study.


My initial reactions:

1. No mention of the solar minimum? Seems undeniable that it has some impact and maybe these 2 effects are either:
a: acting in concert
b: the water vapor changes are caused by the solar minimum

2. "climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface" !?! And you know that because someone validated the results of a mixing ratio forecast 50 years into the future, or what?

3. Regardless of 1 or 2, above, seems that we continue to learn new things about it all and how they play together...and every time we learn one new thing, we discover at least 2 questions that need to be answered. (Don't think me ungrateful for this study, every piece is something and needs to be researched, surely.)

The NOAA press release: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100128_watervapor.html
The Science paper: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/science.1182488

So, open question, if the solar minimum did not cause the 10% drop in stratospheric water vapor after 2000, what did? The PDO? (How?) Anything else come to mind? (I feel like I am forgetting something)

According to the AP:
The reason for the decline is unknown, according to researchers led by Susan Solomon of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100128/ap_on_sc/us_sci_waning_water

Nice to be reminded how little we know from time to time...here I am flood...stuck with what we don't know.
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Quoting Floridano:


Give it to me, plz?


I don't have it.
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Howdy, Folks...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting CaneWarning:


You can probably reach him via his cell phone.


Give it to me, plz?
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Yes texas is as of now.. hope u stay safe!

SmileyCentral.com

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been put into affect for the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Metroplex
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Texas is currently getting rained on, severe T Storms just west of Ft Worth-Dallas, TX:


Yes texas is as of now.. hope u stay safe!
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Texas is currently getting rained on, severe T Storms just west of Ft Worth-Dallas, TX:
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Quoting Floridano:
Is Paul Timmons around?


You can probably reach him via his cell phone.
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Quoting Floridano:
Is Paul Timmons around?


Nope
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Is Paul Timmons around?
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G'afternoon, all!!!
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Raleigh up to 12"...we look to stay in rain :(
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Quoting NRAamy:
The Portlight Auction House is OPEN!!!!!!!!


I wonder if Portlight can get NASA to donate some of this stuff for auction? For real !


Wired Science News for Your Neurons --- NASA Garage Sale Includes Shuttles, Engines, Space Suits
By Jason Paur January 21, 2010
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting Patrap:
Tune in to the Barometer Bob Show tonight at 8pm EST and join us in StormChat as Bob will be talking to our own wunder-blogger and portlight Spokesperson "Floodman" as we discuss the ongoing relief Mission to Haiti.

One can call in toll-free and also ask questions thru the Live StormChat




Bob Brookens receiving a Special Award from Max Mayfield for his Broadcasting and Hurricane Awareness work.




Thanks, intresting report/discussion.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
hey everyone..
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The Portlight Auction House is OPEN!!!!!!!!
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Speaking of our GOES satellite discussion, full details in a news release from late yesterday (I swear that those truly in the know are reading in here sometimes)...

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-01/nsfc-gpt012710.php

GOES-P proceeds toward launch

The latest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-P is proceeding through more checks in preparation for its launch, which is no earlier than March 1.

The GOES-P spacecraft continues being processed at the Astrotech Facility in Titusville, Fla. The Imager, Sounder and Solar X-Ray Imager have completed cleaning and inspections. The optical port covers have been successfully installed. Those covers are one of the last mechanisms to be deployed once GOES-P gets into orbit.

GOES-P is the latest weather satellite developed by NASA to aid the nation's meteorologists and climate scientists. GOES satellites provide the familiar weather pictures seen on United States television newscasts every day. GOES provides nearly continuous imaging and sounding, which allows forecasters to better measure changes in atmospheric temperature and moisture distributions, which increase the accuracy of their forecasts. GOES environmental information is used for a host of applications, including weather monitoring and prediction models.


[more]

Going up on this Delta IV:
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Squall line


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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

I'm sure you read the response from Gavin Schmidt aswell ;)
http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/2006/11/gavin_schmidt_on_the_acquittal.html


Sorry for the typo, LoL

Did you read the article you posted ?

CONCLUSION

Categorically, each of Gavin Schmidt's criticisms of the Acquittal of Carbon Dioxide missed its mark


Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting Ossqss:
An interesting read. Kinda goes with the new study published in Nature correcting the CO2 feedback loop info :)

THE ACQUITTAL OF CARBON DIOXIDE
by Jeffrey A. Glassman, PhD

I'm sure you read the response from Gavin Schmidt aswell ;)
http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/2006/11/gavin_schmidt_on_the_acquittal.html
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
I screwed 495 a little up, if i edit it will display text errors (an error related to the edit function of this blog). So to read the full article please checkout the linked pdf.

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
An interesting read. Kinda goes with the new study published in Nature correcting the CO2 feedback loop info :)

THE ACQUITTAL OF CARBON DIOXIDE
by Jeffrey A. Glassman, PhD
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
It looks like another storm is starting to form to the west-northwest of Nisha:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Winter Temperatures and the Arctic Oscillation


If you live nearly anywhere in North America, Europe, or Asia, it’s no news that December 2009 and early January 2010 were cold. This image illustrates how cold December was compared to the average of temperatures recorded in December between 2000 and 2008. Blue points to colder than average land surface temperatures, while red indicates warmer temperatures. Much of the Northern Hemisphere experienced cold land surface temperatures, but the Arctic was exceptionally warm. This weather pattern is a tale-tell sign of the Arctic Oscillation.

The Arctic Oscillation is a climate pattern that influences winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. It is defined by the pressure difference between air at mid-latitudes (around 45 degrees North, about the latitude of Montreal, Canada or Bordeaux, France) and air over the Arctic. A low-pressure air mass usually dominates the Arctic, and while higher pressure air sits over the mid-latitudes. This pressure difference generates winds that confine extremely cold air to the Arctic. Sometimes, the pressure systems weaken, decreasing the pressure difference between the Arctic and midlatitudes and allowing chilly Arctic air to slide south while warmer air creeps north. A weaker-than-normal Arctic Oscillation is said to be negative. When the pressure systems are strong, the Arctic Oscillation is positive.

Throughout December 2009, the North Atlantic Oscillation was strongly negative, said the National Weather Service. This image shows the impact of the negative Arctic Oscillation on land surface temperatures throughout the Northern Hemisphere as observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Cold Arctic air chilled the land surface at midlatitudes, while Arctic land, such as Greenland and Alaska, was much warmer than usual.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42260
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Last night in germany around 3 inch snow. In the morning car owners had problems removing ice from the car windows. Later it started to melt. Than further into the evening it started to freeze again. Which will be very dangerous to make it drive in the next hours to come. And we had temperature shifts in a margin of 20 degrees in the last 72h or so. -20C - 0/1C.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Snowsqualls are coming down really heavily now. Visibility reduced to about 1 km. A few hours ago my shovel blew down and the handle fell off.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835

Watch as Obama is laughed at during his state of the union address after referring to the "overwhelming scientific evidence on climate change". First the audience laughs, then Pelosi, next Biden and finally Obama himself smirks at the insanity of his remark.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
495:

Public skepticism increased in the US during December 2009, just as I predicted. This demonstrates that my forecasts are correct.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Jan. 26, 2010: If It's That Warm, How Come It's So Darned Cold? Revised essay on recent cold temperature anomalies.

Public skepticism about global warming was reinforced by the extreme cold
of December 2009 in the contiguous 48 United States and in much of Eurasia. The summer of
2009 was also unusually cool in the United States. But when a cold spell hits, we need to ask:
* Cold compared to what. Our memory of the past few winters? Winters of our
childhood? Winters earlier in the 20th century?
* Cold where and for how long? Regional cold snaps are expected even with large
global warming. Weather fluctuations can be 10, 20 or 30 degrees, much larger than average
global warming.
* The reality of seasons. As the plot of Earth we live on turns away from the sun, in
winter or at night, it cools off. That’s true even with global warming, albeit not quite so much.

The long‐term trends are more apparent when temperature is averaged over several
years. The 60‐month (5‐year) and 132 month (11‐year) running mean temperatures are shown
in Figure 3 for the globe and the hemispheres. The 5‐year mean is sufficient to reduce the
effect of the El Nino – La Nina cycles of tropical climate. The 11‐year mean minimizes the effect
of solar variability – the brightness of the sun varies by a measurable amount over the sunspot
cycle, which is typically of 10‐12 year duration.
There is a contradiction between the observed continued warming trend and popular
perceptions about climate trends. Frequent statements include: “There has been global cooling
over the past decade.” “Global warming stopped in 1998.” “1998 is the warmest year in the
record.” Such statements have been repeated so often that most of the public seems to accept
them as being true. However, based on our data, such statements are not correct.
The origin of this contradiction probably lies in part in differences between the GISS and
HadCRUT temperature analyses (HadCRUT is the joint Hadley Centre, University of East Anglia
Climatic Research Unit temperature analysis). Indeed, HadCRUT finds 1998 to be the warmest
year in their record. In addition, popular belief that the world is cooling is reinforced by cold
weather anomalies in the United States in the summer of 2009 and cold anomalies in much of
the Northern Hemisphere in December 2009.

Additional sources of error become important when comparing temperature anomalies
separated by longer periods. The most well‐known source of long‐term error is “urban
warming”, human‐made local warming caused by energy use and alterations of the natural
environment. Various other errors affecting the estimates of long‐term temperature change
are described comprehensively in a large number of papers by Tom Karl and his associates at
the NOAA National Climate Data Center. The GISS temperature analysis corrects for urban
effects by adjusting the long‐term trends of urban stations to be consistent with the trends at
nearby rural stations, with urban locations identified either by population or satellite‐observed
night lights. In a paper in preparation we demonstrate that the population and night light
approaches yield similar results on global average. The additional error caused by factors other
than incomplete spatial coverage is estimated to be of the order of 0.1°C on time scales of
several decades to a century, this estimate necessarily being partly subjective. The estimated
total uncertainty in global mean temperature anomaly with land and ocean data included thus
is similar to the error estimate in the first line of Table 1, i.e., the error due to limited spatial
coverage when only meteorological stations are included.

Comparison of GISS and NOAA global temperature change. NOAA recently announced
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global that 2009 was the fifth warmest year in their
analysis. At face value this result may seem to disagree with the GISS conclusion that 2009 tied
with several other years for the second warmest year. So we compare the GISS and NOAA
results in Figure 6, in which, following the NOAA convention, we have defined the baseline as
the mean temperature for the past century, 1901‐2000.
Figure 6 reveals that the NOAA and GISS analyses are in good agreement, within the
estimated uncertainties. Both analyses find 2005 to be the warmest year. The discrepancy in
ranking of individual years is due in part to the GISS preference to describe as statistical ties
those years with global temperatures differing by a few hundredths of a degree or less.
Although quantitative analysis of the reasons for differences between these two analyses may
be warranted, it is beyond the scope of this essay.

Global cooling in the past decade? That question can be addressed with a much higher
degree of confidence than the ranking of individual years. The reason is that error due to
incomplete spatial coverage of data becomes smaller for data averaged over several years. The
2‐sigma error in the 5‐year running‐mean temperature anomaly shown in Figure 3, is about a
factor of two smaller than the annual mean uncertainty, thus only 0.02‐0.03°C. Given that the
change of 5‐year‐mean global temperature anomaly is almost 0.2°C over the past decade, we
can conclude that the world has become warmer over the past decade, not cooler.
Why are some people so readily convinced of a false conclusion, that the world is really
experiencing a cooling trend? That misimpression may have a lot to do with regional short‐term
temperature fluctuations, which are an order of magnitude larger than global average annual
anomalies. Yet many lay people do understand the distinction between regional short‐term
anomalies and global trends. For example, here is comment posted by “frogbandit” at 8:38
p.m. 1/6/2010 on City Bright blog (http://blog.seattlepi.com/robertbrown/archives/190211.asp):


Regional anomalies
. How do these large regional temperature anomalies stack up
against an expectation of, and the reality of, global warming? How unusual are these regional
negative fluctuations? Do they have any relationship to global warming? Do they contradict
global warming?
It is obvious that in December 2009 there was an unusual exchange of polar and mid‐
latitude air in the Northern Hemisphere. Arctic air rushed into both North America and Eurasia,
and, of course, it was replaced in the polar region by air from middle latitudes.
The degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes is related to the Arctic
Oscillation (AO) index, which is defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns and is plotted
in Figure 8. When the AO index is positive surface pressure is low in the polar region. This
helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus
keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region. When the AO index is negative there tends to
be high pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar
air into middle latitudes.
Figure 8 shows that December 2009 was the most extreme negative Arctic Oscillation
since the 1970s. Although there were ten cases between the early 1960s and mid 1980s with
an AO index more extreme than ‐2.5, there were no such extreme cases since then until
December 2009. It is no wonder that the public became accustomed to the absence of extreme
blasts of cold air.

The AO index is not so much an explanation for climate anomaly patterns as it is a
simple statement of the situation. However, John (Mike) Wallace and colleagues have been
able to use the AO description to aid consideration of how the patterns may change as
greenhouse gases increase. A number of papers, by Wallace, David Thompson (e.g., Thompson
and Wallace, 2000), and others, as well as by Drew Shindell and others at GISS (Shindell et al.,
2001), have pointed out that increasing carbon dioxide causes the stratosphere to cool, in turn
causing on average a stronger jet stream and thus a tendency for a more positive Arctic
Oscillation. Overall, Figure 8 shows a weak tendency in the expected sense.
Figure 10 shows the AO index for Dec‐Jan‐Feb and Jun‐Jul‐Aug. Variability is much
greater in the winter. There is weak correlation of the AO index and U.S. temperature in the
winter, but no significant correlation in the summer. An unusually large negative AO was
associated with the 2009 cool summer in the United States. Loss of Arctic summer sea ice is
likely to affect Northern Hemisphere continental temperatures, but sea ice loss so far is too
small and for too few years to allow empirical assessment.
We conclude that December 2009 was a highly anomalous month. High pressure in the
polar region can be described as the “cause” of the extreme December weather. But there is
no apparent basis for expecting frequent repeat occurrences of December 2009 conditions. On
the contrary – the weak winter trend is toward a more positive AO, as expected with increasing
greenhouse gases. But month‐to‐month fluctuations of the AO are much larger than its long
term trend, so high winter variability including cold snaps will surely continue.

However, other factors than the AO, including pervasive global warming due to
increasing greenhouse gases, affect the climate trends. Figure 10 shows that in the U.S. only
one of the past 10 winters and two of the past 10 summers were cooler than the 1951‐1980
climatology. Let’s look at global maps of recent regional temperature anomalies and
temperature trends to help assess whether the U.S. tendency is an expected result due to
global warming. Figure 11 shows seasonal temperature anomalies for the past year and Figure
12 shows seasonal temperature change since 1950 based on local linear trends. The
temperature scales are identical in Figures 11 and 12.
The outstanding characteristic in comparing these two figures is that the magnitude of
the 60 year change is similar to the magnitude of seasonal anomalies. What this tells us is that
the climate “dice” are already strongly loaded. The change in the probability that the seasonal
mean temperature at any given location will fall in the category that was defined as unusually
warm during the period of climatology (1951‐1980) has increased from 30 percent during the
period of climatology to about 60 percent today, as we illustrate in an upcoming publication.
The magnitude of monthly temperature anomalies is typically 1.5 to 2 times greater
than the magnitude of seasonal anomalies. So it is not yet quite as easy to see global warming
if one’s figure of merit is monthly mean temperature. Daily temperature change due to
weather fluctuations is even much larger than global mean warming. Yet it is already possible
to notice the effect by comparing the frequency of days with record warm temperature to days
with record cold temperature – days with record high temperature now exceed days with
record cold by about a two to one ratio (Meehl et al., 2009).

Summary
The bottom line is this: the Earth has been in a period of rapid global warming for the
past three decades. The assertion that the planet has entered a period of cooling in the past
decade is without foundation. On the contrary, we find no significant deviation from the
warming trend of the past three decades.
Weather fluctuations exceed the magnitude of average global warming over the past
half century. However, the perceptive person should be able to notice that climate is warming
on decadal time scales. The global temperature trend over the past few decades has been
strong enough that there is a noticeable “loading” of the climate dice that define the
probability of unusually warm or cool seasons.


“I wonder about the people who use cold weather to say that the globe is cooling. It forgets that
global warming has a global component and that its a trend, not an everyday thing. I hear people
down in the lower 48 say its really cold this winter. That ain't true so far up here in Alaska.
Bethel, Alaska, had a brown Christmas. Here in Anchorage, the temperature today is 31. I can't
say based on the fact Anchorage and Bethel are warm so far this winter that we have global
warming. That would be a really dumb argument to think my weather pattern is being
experienced even in the rest of the United States, much less globally.”
What frogbandit is saying is illustrated by the global map of temperature anomalies in
December 2009 (Figure 7a). There were strong negative temperature anomalies at middle latitudes in
the Northern Hemisphere, as great as ‐8°C in Siberia, averaged over the month. But the temperature
anomaly in the Arctic was as great as +7°C. The cold December perhaps reaffirmed an impression
gained by Americans from the unusually cool 2009 summer. There was a large region in the United
States and Canada in June‐July‐August with a negative temperature anomaly greater than 1°C, the
largest negative anomaly on the planet.


http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100127_TemperatureFinal.pdf

Sorry for the long post, follow the link to download the pdf with images included.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting RitaEvac:
Where DAT rain at


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Where DAT rain at
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Quoting ncleclerc:
Our local weather channel WRAL which is in Raleigh has noted a snowfall potential of up to 10 inches of snow. And it is going to be so cold. Saturday and Sunday night in the teens.


according to this most of the snow will be north of raleigh
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=AKQ
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Our local weather channel WRAL which is in Raleigh has noted a snowfall potential of up to 10 inches of snow. And it is going to be so cold. Saturday and Sunday night in the teens.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
(iBTW, iI iAm iTired iOf iThis iStupid iFreaking iCutesy iFad)


iKnow, iAgree
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Remember our slowish and error prone internet yesterday? Blame apple and their iPad: http://www.pcworld.com/article/188006/apples_ipad_event_broke_the_internet.html

(iBTW, iI iAm iTired iOf iThis iStupid iFreaking iCutesy iFad)

Lol ;) I read it haz no usb though.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting atmoaggie:
Remember our slowish and error prone internet yesterday? Blame apple and their iPad: http://www.pcworld.com/article/188006/apples_ipad_event_broke_the_internet.html

(iBTW, iI iAm iTired iOf iThis iStupid iFreaking iCutesy iFad)


yeah, when I ping WU, I have 55ms, instead of like 110ms yesterday
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Remember our slowish and error prone internet yesterday? Blame apple and their iPad: http://www.pcworld.com/article/188006/apples_ipad_event_broke_the_internet.html

(iBTW, iI iAm iTired iOf iThis iStupid iFreaking iCutesy iFad)
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Good morning/afternoon, all!! Just jumping in for a second to talk Portlight. :)

This is the one of the best things I've ever read, especially in light of Portlight's efforts in Haiti:

"It's not about being a leader, it's about being a participant through our small actions, because collectively we are making history."

Portlight is making history in the disabled community of Haiti, just as it has done here at home. Please help keep the work going! Organize fundraisers in your neighborhood, at work, your childrens' or grandchildrens' schools, your church - anywhere you can think of.

Thank you all for all you're doing!! Please keep giving, every way you can, to help us bring mobility, accessibility and HOPE to the disabled in Haiti!

Donate to Portlight
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483

that's epic
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.