A new world record wind gust: 253 mph in Australia's Tropical Cyclone Olivia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:34 PM GMT on January 27, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

The 6,288-foot peak of New Hampshire's Mount Washington is a forbidding landscape of wind-swept barren rock, home to some of planet Earth's fiercest winds. As a 5-year old boy, I remember being blown over by a terrific gust of wind on the summit, and rolling out of control towards a dangerous drop-off before a fortuitously-placed rock saved me. Perusing the Guinness Book of World Records as a kid, three iconic world weather records always held a particular mystique and fascination for me: the incredible 136°F (57.8°C) at El Azizia, Libya in 1922, the -128.5°F (-89.2°C) at the "Pole of Cold" in Vostok, Antarctica in 1983, and the amazing 231 mph wind gust (103.3 m/s) recorded in 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. Well, the legendary winds of Mount Washington have to take second place now, next to the tropical waters of northwest Australia. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the new world wind speed record at the surface is a 253 mph (113.2 m/s) wind gust measured on Barrow Island, Australia. The gust occurred on April 10, 1996, during passage of the eyewall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Olivia.


Figure 1. Instruments coated with rime ice on the summit of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire. Image credit: Mike Theiss.

Tropical Cyclone Olivia
Tropical Cyclone Olivia was a Category 4 storm on the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale, and generated sustained winds of 145 mph (1-minute average) as it crossed over Barrow Island off the northwest coast of Australia on April 10, 1996. Olivia had a central pressure of 927 mb and an eye 45 miles in diameter at the time, and generated waves 21 meters (69 feet) high offshore. According to Black et al. (1999), the eyewall likely had a tornado-scale mesovortex embedded in it that caused the extreme wind gust of 253 mph. The gust was measured at the standard measuring height of 10 meters above ground, on ground at an elevation of 64 meters (210 feet). A similar mesovortex was encountered by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Hurricane Hugo of 1989, and a mesovortex was also believed to be responsible for the 239 mph wind gust measured at 1400 meters by a dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel in 2003. For reference, 200 mph is the threshold for the strongest category of tornado, the EF-5, and any gusts of this strength are capable of causing catastrophic damage.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Olivia a few hours before it crossed Barrow Island, Australia, setting a new world-record wind gust of 253 mph. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 3. Wind trace taken at Barrow Island, Australia during Tropical Cyclone Olivia. Image credit: Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.

Why did it take so long for the new record to be announced?
The instrument used to take the world record wind gust was funded by a private company, Chevron, and Chevron's data was not made available to forecasters at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) during the storm. After the storm, the tropical cyclone experts at BOM were made aware of the data, but it was viewed as suspect, since the gusts were so extreme and the data was taken with equipment of unknown accuracy. Hence, the observations were not included in the post-storm report. Steve Buchan from RPS MetOcean believed in the accuracy of the observations, and coauthored a paper on the record gust, presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston (Buchan et al., 1999). The data lay dormant until 2009, when Joe Courtney of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was made aware of it. Courtney wrote up a report, coauthored with Steve Buchan, and presented this to the WMO extremes committee for ratification. The report has not been made public yet, and is awaiting approval by Chevron. The verified data will be released next month at a World Meteorological Organization meeting in Turkey, when the new world wind record will become official.

New Hampshire residents are not happy
Residents of New Hampshire are understandably not too happy about losing their cherished claim to fame. The current home page of the Mount Washington Observatory reads, "For once, the big news on Mount Washington isn't our extreme weather. Sadly, it's about how our extreme weather--our world record wind speed, to be exact--was outdone by that of a warm, tropical island".

Comparison with other wind records
Top wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 239 mph (107 m/s) at an altitude of 1400 meters, measured by dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel (2003).
Top surface wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 211 mph (94.4 m/s), Hurricane Gustav, Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station in the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, on the afternoon of August 30, 2008.
Top wind in a tornado: 302 mph (135 m/s), measured via Doppler radar at an altitude of 100 meters (330 feet), in the Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado of May 3, 1999.
Top surface wind not associated with a tropical cyclone or tornado: 231 mph (103.3 m/s), April 12, 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire.
Top wind in a typhoon: 191 mph (85.4 m/s) on Taiwanese Island of Lanyu, Super Typhoon Ryan, Sep 22, 1995; also on island of Miyakojima, Super Typhoon Cora, Sep 5, 1966.
Top surface wind not measured on a mountain or in a tropical cyclone: 207 mph (92.5 m/s) measured in Greenland at Thule Air Force Base on March 6, 1972.
Top wind measured in a U.S. hurricane: 186 mph (83.1 m/s) measured at Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts, during the 1938 New England Hurricane.

References
Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.

Black, P.G., Buchan, S.J., and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Mesovortex: A Physical Mechanism Explaining Extreme Peak Gust Occurrence in TC Olivia, 4 April 1996 on Barrow Island, Australia", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 134 - 84

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Quoting GodisinControl:


does the fog form at above freezing and then turn ice after below freezing

This is how rime ice occurs, but the fog can be, and usually is, below freezing, yet still liquid (which we call super-cooled). Then once it touches a surface, freezes immediately.

But you can have fog that is frozen in air as well. It doesn't attach itself to surfaces nearly as well.

Icing on wings of aircraft is usually rime-type. Baaaaad for flying.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
132. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting atmoaggie:

That's what GOES-O is...renamed upon orbit to numerical...


Yes I know..that's why I called it GOES-14..I think you could find a picture of it launching in my pictures.. I wanna say it went up on a Delta heavy..

Japan & other countries have been putting resources toward climate monitoring satellites. There's already talk of using some of their data. Think it will be open to the web for us to see?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GodisinControl:


does the fog form at above freezing and then turn ice after below freezing


It can form below freezing. Just depends on the dew point and relative humidity in the air at the time.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
From weather.com :

FREEZING FOG
Used to describe the phenomena when fog is present and the air temperature is below 0°C. It is reported as "FZFG" in an observation and on the METAR.

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
127. Skyepony (Mod)
It's nice having the extra GOES-10 parked where we can see some Southern Hemisphere storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GodisinControl:
i never heard of frozen fog before


Oh it happens and it sticks to everything, making thin coats of ice.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting atmoaggie:

Not snow. Rime ice (fog frozen on surfaces)


yeah, it says that it is rime ice under the image
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah I kinda can't wait till they pull GOES-14 out of storage up there. But it would be one less. A good bit of them are past life expactancy & there's not many in the works. Already I think we will be hindered this season compared to the past. Not like'n to see windsat floundering at all at this point.. it's in it's 10th year of it's 5 year life expactancy

That's what GOES-O is...renamed upon orbit to numerical...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Skyepony:
Thanks Flood:)


You bet, Skyepony!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
120. Skyepony (Mod)
Thanks Flood:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

I was wrong about...I thought GOES-R was sooner, but the first one is scheduled for 2015. Is already funded and in the works, I think.

GOES-P is planned to go up March 1.

GOES-O was launched last June.


Mystery solved, to some degree...yeah, the GOES birds are replaced regularly (okay, as regularly as they need to be)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JFLORIDA:
What a wonderful picture from Mr Theiss. Im surprised the snow is sticking so well like that - I guess the high wind speed.

Not snow. Rime ice (fog ...or drizzle... frozen on surfaces)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
117. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Actually we have a couple GOES ones up there already waiting for the current ones to finish dying and at least one more, that I know of off the top of my head, going up in the next year (I think).


Yeah I kinda can't wait till they pull GOES-14 out of storage up there. But it would be one less. A good bit of them are past life expactancy & there's not many in the works. Already I think we will be hindered this season compared to the past. Not like'n to see windsat floundering at all at this point.. it's in it's 10th year of it's 5 year life expactancy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


GOES 14 was launched on 6-27-09; I know you're right but I can't find the notice for the 2010-2011 launches

I was wrong about that a little...I thought GOES-R was sooner, but the first one is scheduled for 2015. Is already funded and in the works, I think.

GOES-P is planned to go up March 1.

GOES-O was launched last June.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting NEwxguy:


I agree,some things are better left unknown.


Unfortunately human nature takes over and there you are, staring down the muzzle of (forgive the phrase) an inconvenient truth...you have mail, btw (sharing the wealth)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


No, it's not a search...I fear I've found him...got to stop thinking about how much a post looks like this person or that person...ignorance is bliss, right?


I agree,some things are better left unknown.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15071
Quoting NEwxguy:


the neverending search for JFV,


No, it's not a search...I fear I've found him...got to stop thinking about how much a post looks like this person or that person...ignorance is bliss, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Flood, did you read post #86?


I just did...my dad was a cop for a number of years and remembers one epic fail where his gun read a parked car at 87mph LOL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Actually we have a couple GOES ones up there already waiting for the current ones to finish dying and at least one more, that I know of off the top of my head, going up in the next year (I think).


GOES 14 was launched on 6-27-09; I know you're right but I can't find the notice for the 2010-2011 launches
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:
JFV, is that you?


the neverending search for JFV,
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15071
Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING COLD AIR TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THEN TRACK EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. A CHANGE OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES CAN MEAN A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS.

TNZ012>017-035-037>039-042-044-046-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-281000-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.100129T1800Z-100130T2100Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-MORGAN-UNION-
GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-
LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...WARTBURG...MAYNARDVILLE...
RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...
ELIZABETHTON...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...
ABINGDON
259 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING ON FRIDAY...AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA...AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

* IMPACTS: ROAD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HAZARDOUS FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

&&
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting hydrus:
Flood, did you read post #85?


hey Hydrus, you have a winter storm watch now, right?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting Floodman:
102.

Skyepony, you have some great photos!
Flood, did you read post #86?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
A lean toward some more climate monitoring means more toys for us. We are getting low- quikScat is gone..GOES-WEST antenna positioning issues, windsat is having receiving issues, they got cloudsat back up but it almost looks like it has short, regular mess up intervals since.

but oh my Aries..we've worked so hard on you already..
A picture I took of it.. (here's the series)

Actually we have a couple GOES ones up there already waiting for the current ones to finish dying and at least one more, that I know of off the top of my head, going up in the next year (I think).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
102.

Skyepony, you have some great photos!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JFV, is that you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
102. Skyepony (Mod)
A lean toward some more climate monitoring means more toys for us. We are getting low- quikScat is gone..GOES-WEST antenna positioning issues, windsat is having receiving issues, they got cloudsat back up but it almost looks like it has short, regular mess up intervals since.

but oh my Aries..we've worked so hard on you already..
A picture I took of it.. (here's the series)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
100. XLR8
#95 dont mind a bit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



doppler radar has a 70mph error window?


The main point here is that Doppler cannot give you readings of surface winds, not to mention the margin of error
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting XLR8:
May get banned for this but oh well it will be worth it.
OK a friend sent this to my cell phone had to share.

Be Advised:
Hurricane Who Dat is making landfall. Bringing Shockey waves and strong Brees. Already sunk a Viking ship. Headed straight for Miami!


That's awesome Lol If anyone can withstand that hurricane tho, it'd be Peyton Manning
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting Floodman:


You are correct, sir...being doppler based the margin for error takes it out of the running for the record



doppler radar has a 70mph error window?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
# 93

ooooh..I like dat one.

Im gonna put it in my blog,if ya dont mind.

Quote and all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Possible new job area??

Channeling your inner alien? Maybe, scientists say
By Raphael G. Satter, Associated Press Writer Tue Jan 26, 9:26 pm ET

Excerpt:
Davies' call for alien-hunting scientists to look to their own backyards came as a pioneer in the search for extraterrestrial life in outer space told the conference the job appears to be more difficult than previously thought.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
93. XLR8
May get banned for this but oh well it will be worth it.
OK a friend sent this to my cell phone had to share.

Be Advised:
Hurricane Who Dat is making landfall. Bringing Shockey waves and strong Brees. Already sunk a Viking ship. Headed straight for Miami!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #31
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER OLGA (07U)
5:00 AM CST January 28 2010
========================================

At 3:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Olga (992 hPa) located at 16.1S 136.2E or located 20 kms north of Borroloola and 210 kms south of Groote Eylandt has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during today where it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, late today. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, tonight.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Pormpuraaw within the next 24 hours. However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory coast and adjacent islands between Bing Bong and the Queensland Border tonight.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast elsewhere between Cape Shield in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland today.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, in the Northern Territory should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8 am CST [8:30am EST]

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Burketown to Pormpuraaw in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.6S 136.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.5S 137.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.9S 140.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.9S 143.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=========================
Ex-TC Olga was located by synop and satellite close to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Surface observations from Borroloola suggest recent progression to the northwest closer to the coast. Deep convection has weakened during the night, with 24 hour trend steady based on decreased deep convection but increased curvature. DT 2.0 based on 0.3 spiral wrap. MET/PT agree. CI held up at 2.5 during recent weakening.

The system is forecast to move NW under the influence of the mid-level steering ridge to the southwest, then recurve towards the N or NE during Thursday as a middle level trough amplifies over central Australia. Forecast track based on consensus of available 12Z and 00Z model runs. The broad-scale environment is very favourable for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone when the LLCC moves further over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, with divergent outflow aloft and strong monsoonal westerlies to the north.


What about that sudden convection to the northwest? It appears to be strengthening rapidly over land, heading toward Timor and toward open water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cyclone Nisha map from RSMC Nadi

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #31
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER OLGA (07U)
5:00 AM CST January 28 2010
========================================

At 3:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Olga (992 hPa) located at 16.1S 136.2E or located 20 kms north of Borroloola and 210 kms south of Groote Eylandt has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during today where it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, late today. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, tonight.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Pormpuraaw within the next 24 hours. However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory coast and adjacent islands between Bing Bong and the Queensland Border tonight.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast elsewhere between Cape Shield in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland today.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, in the Northern Territory should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8 am CST [8:30am EST]

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Burketown to Pormpuraaw in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.6S 136.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.5S 137.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.9S 140.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.9S 143.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=========================
Ex-TC Olga was located by synop and satellite close to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Surface observations from Borroloola suggest recent progression to the northwest closer to the coast. Deep convection has weakened during the night, with 24 hour trend steady based on decreased deep convection but increased curvature. DT 2.0 based on 0.3 spiral wrap. MET/PT agree. CI held up at 2.5 during recent weakening.

The system is forecast to move NW under the influence of the mid-level steering ridge to the southwest, then recurve towards the N or NE during Thursday as a middle level trough amplifies over central Australia. Forecast track based on consensus of available 12Z and 00Z model runs. The broad-scale environment is very favourable for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone when the LLCC moves further over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, with divergent outflow aloft and strong monsoonal westerlies to the north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct.


There are about 45 states that have a stake in the space program. The screaming and yelling from the senators and delegates will be huge. I doubt that the budget will pass intact. We'll see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


The information and the weather station was owned by a private company; it took quite a while to get the data from them and then they had to verify the equipment was and could have been accurate. As for the doppler readings, they are extrapolated wind speeds with a fair margin of error built into them. Even a cop's radar gun will give a really erroneous reading from time to time (I'm not really comparing a radar gun to a Doppler radar station, but the principle is similar). An anemometer is there, a mechanical device that measures the speed of the wind...I agree though, I want to know how that anemometer was anchored to be able to withstand winds of that speed...I've "stood up" in 80 mph winds; it's more like leaning into the wind at about a 45 degree angle
LOL- I have owned four Quality anemometers ( my favorite is the "Maximum" ) a gift from my parents in 79. None of them went above 150 mph. It does make sense to me now, it probably took them 14 years to put it back in working order to guarantee the reading was truly accurate. Even a cops radar gun will give an erroneous reading from time to time. LMAO..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FIVE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20092010
22:00 PM Réunion January 27 2010
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10R (1003 hPa) located at 20.5S 59.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south-southeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.2S 60.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 24.2S 60.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 28.0S 61.3E - 35 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)
72 HRS: 32.8S 65.1E - 40 knots (EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
========================
The low level circulation remains bad defined and the fix is extrapolated thanks to AMSU 1451z. Deep convection more scattered this afternoon, seem to develop strong wind (25kts very locally 30kts) exist mainly in the eastern semi circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Oceanic heat potential is favorable north of 24S and good upper level outflow channel exist poleward with an approaching upper levels trough but low level inflows are expected regularly weaken. System is therefore not forecasted to deepen significantly on and after 24 hrs, vertical wind shear is expected to increase and sea surface temperature to become unfavorable. Numerical weather prediction model are in good agreement with this scenario.

Réunion and Mauritius islands should stay far away from more intense convective activitiy east of the system which should concern Rodriques Island within the next 3 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you Astro for this great report.
I'd like to suggest to collect those also, seperatly in a blog aswell.

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032

Viewing: 134 - 84

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
45 °F
Mostly Cloudy