A new world record wind gust: 253 mph in Australia's Tropical Cyclone Olivia
The 6,288-foot peak of New Hampshire's Mount Washington is a forbidding landscape of wind-swept barren rock, home to some of planet Earth's fiercest winds. As a 5-year old boy, I remember being blown over by a terrific gust of wind on the summit, and rolling out of control towards a dangerous drop-off before a fortuitously-placed rock saved me. Perusing the Guinness Book of World Records as a kid, three iconic world weather records always held a particular mystique and fascination for me: the incredible 136°F (57.8°C) at El Azizia, Libya in 1922, the -128.5°F (-89.2°C) at the "Pole of Cold" in Vostok, Antarctica in 1983, and the amazing 231 mph wind gust (103.3 m/s) recorded in 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. Well, the legendary winds of Mount Washington have to take second place now, next to the tropical waters of northwest Australia. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the new world wind speed record at the surface is a 253 mph (113.2 m/s) wind gust measured on Barrow Island, Australia. The gust occurred on April 10, 1996, during passage of the eyewall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Olivia.
Figure 1. Instruments coated with rime ice on the summit of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire. Image credit: Mike Theiss.
Tropical Cyclone Olivia
Tropical Cyclone Olivia was a Category 4 storm on the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale, and generated sustained winds of 145 mph (1-minute average) as it crossed over Barrow Island off the northwest coast of Australia on April 10, 1996. Olivia had a central pressure of 927 mb and an eye 45 miles in diameter at the time, and generated waves 21 meters (69 feet) high offshore. According to Black et al. (1999), the eyewall likely had a tornado-scale mesovortex embedded in it that caused the extreme wind gust of 253 mph. The gust was measured at the standard measuring height of 10 meters above ground, on ground at an elevation of 64 meters (210 feet). A similar mesovortex was encountered by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Hurricane Hugo of 1989, and a mesovortex was also believed to be responsible for the 239 mph wind gust measured at 1400 meters by a dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel in 2003. For reference, 200 mph is the threshold for the strongest category of tornado, the EF-5, and any gusts of this strength are capable of causing catastrophic damage.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Olivia a few hours before it crossed Barrow Island, Australia, setting a new world-record wind gust of 253 mph. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Figure 3. Wind trace taken at Barrow Island, Australia during Tropical Cyclone Olivia. Image credit: Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.
Why did it take so long for the new record to be announced?
The instrument used to take the world record wind gust was funded by a private company, Chevron, and Chevron's data was not made available to forecasters at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) during the storm. After the storm, the tropical cyclone experts at BOM were made aware of the data, but it was viewed as suspect, since the gusts were so extreme and the data was taken with equipment of unknown accuracy. Hence, the observations were not included in the post-storm report. Steve Buchan from RPS MetOcean believed in the accuracy of the observations, and coauthored a paper on the record gust, presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston (Buchan et al., 1999). The data lay dormant until 2009, when Joe Courtney of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was made aware of it. Courtney wrote up a report, coauthored with Steve Buchan, and presented this to the WMO extremes committee for ratification. The report has not been made public yet, and is awaiting approval by Chevron. The verified data will be released next month at a World Meteorological Organization meeting in Turkey, when the new world wind record will become official.
New Hampshire residents are not happy
Residents of New Hampshire are understandably not too happy about losing their cherished claim to fame. The current home page of the Mount Washington Observatory reads, "For once, the big news on Mount Washington isn't our extreme weather. Sadly, it's about how our extreme weather--our world record wind speed, to be exact--was outdone by that of a warm, tropical island".
Comparison with other wind records
Top wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 239 mph (107 m/s) at an altitude of 1400 meters, measured by dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel (2003).
Top surface wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 211 mph (94.4 m/s), Hurricane Gustav, Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station in the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, on the afternoon of August 30, 2008.
Top wind in a tornado: 302 mph (135 m/s), measured via Doppler radar at an altitude of 100 meters (330 feet), in the Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado of May 3, 1999.
Top surface wind not associated with a tropical cyclone or tornado: 231 mph (103.3 m/s), April 12, 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire.
Top wind in a typhoon: 191 mph (85.4 m/s) on Taiwanese Island of Lanya, Super Typhoon Ryan, Sep 22, 1995; also on island of Miyakojima, Super Typhoon Cora, Sep 5, 1966.
Top surface wind not measured on a mountain or in a tropical cyclone: 207 mph (92.5 m/s) measured in Greenland at Thule Air Force Base on March 6, 1972.
Top wind measured in a U.S. hurricane: 186 mph (83.1 m/s) measured at Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts, during the 1938 New England Hurricane.
References
Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.
Black, P.G., Buchan, S.J., and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Mesovortex: A Physical Mechanism Explaining Extreme Peak Gust Occurrence in TC Olivia, 4 April 1996 on Barrow Island, Australia", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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"A slightly shocking finding," Tripati said, "is that the only time in the last 20 million years that we find evidence for carbon dioxide levels similar to the modern level of 387 parts per million was 15 to 20 million years ago, when the planet was dramatically different."
Levels of carbon dioxide have varied only between 180 and 300 parts per million over the last 800,000 years — until recent decades, said Tripati, who is also a member of UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics. It has been known that modern-day levels of carbon dioxide are unprecedented over the last 800,000 years, but the finding that modern levels have not been reached in the last 15 million years is new.
Prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the carbon dioxide level was about 280 parts per million, Tripati said. That figure had changed very little over the previous 1,000 years. But since the Industrial Revolution, the carbon dioxide level has been rising and is likely to soar unless action is taken to reverse the trend, Tripati said.
"During the Middle Miocene (the time period approximately 14 to 20 million years ago), carbon dioxide levels were sustained at about 400 parts per million, which is about where we are today," Tripati said. "Globally, temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer, a huge amount."
Tripati's new chemical technique has an average uncertainty rate of only 14 parts per million.
"We can now have confidence in making statements about how carbon dioxide has varied throughout history," Tripati said.
In the last 20 million years, key features of the climate record include the sudden appearance of ice on Antarctica about 14 million years ago and a rise in sea level of approximately 75 to 120 feet.
"We have shown that this dramatic rise in sea level is associated with an increase in carbon dioxide levels of about 100 parts per million, a huge change," Tripati said. "This record is the first evidence that carbon dioxide may be linked with environmental changes, such as changes in the terrestrial ecosystem, distribution of ice, sea level and monsoon intensity."
Today, the Arctic Ocean is covered with frozen ice all year long, an ice cap that has been there for about 14 million years.
"Prior to that, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic," Tripati said.
Some projections show carbon dioxide levels rising as high as 600 or even 900 parts per million in the next century if no action is taken to reduce carbon dioxide, Tripati said. Such levels may have been reached on Earth 50 million years ago or earlier, said Tripati, who is working to push her data back much farther than 20 million years and to study the last 20 million years in detail.
More than 50 million years ago, there were no ice sheets on Earth, and there were expanded deserts in the subtropics, Tripati noted. The planet was radically different.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091008152242.htm
Southeast seems to be the spot for billion dollar disasters.
hi,
i can't see the words can you post the link - thank you
Link
Today in Nature:
Amplification of Global Warming by Carbon-Cycle Feedback Significantly Less Than Thought, Study Suggests
Recent attempts to quantify the feedback by examining the co-variation of pre-industrial climate and CO2 records yielded estimates of about 40 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) CO2 per degree Celsius, which would imply significant amplification of current warming trends.
In this week's Nature, David Frank and colleagues extend this empirical approach by comparing nine global-scale temperature reconstructions with CO2 data from three Antarctic ice cores over the period ad 1050-1800. The authors derive a likely range for the feedback strength of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v. CO2 per degree Celsius, with a median value of 7.7.
The researchers conclude that the recent estimates of 40 p.p.m.v. CO2 per degree Celsius can be excluded with 95% confidence, suggesting significantly less amplification of current warming.
Wow. Seems that the climate model physics and feedbacks might need to be reworked after this one.
News release: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/01/100127134721.htm
Article: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7280/full/nature08769.html
Billion Dollar Disasters
If you ever want the url or address whatever you like to use, just right click and scroll down to properties and youll see the url, then just copy and paste in browser window.
You might be right that there will happen observations which would contradict the rapid increase in temperature. But again we have those increase of anomalys, shifted weather patterns. Severe, more extreme events - all measurable for exampel by insurance companys. Or such NOAA report just posted. There is a huge exchange of aggregation going on. Ice becomes water. Fossil sediments become gas. Ordered states become disordered. Just as you start to boil water and observe the molecules. Nature seeks equilibrium - now we leave this "balance" to a more chaotic state.
I see rotation.
Lots of it!!
Reports
Hmmm, maybe there is something to look out for at points east tomorrow afternoon (unless some real modulation is in store)
Othere studys (a lot actualy) find that current model prediction underestimate the Co-2 sensitivity. Now it would be intrested to see a comparsion of model adjustment and new findings of sensitivity
Earth's Temperature 30-50% More Sensitive to CO2 than Previously Thought
We found that, given the concentrations of carbon dioxide prevailing three million years ago, the model originally predicted a significantly smaller temperature increase than that indicated by the reconstructions. This led us to review what was missing from the [current] model.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/12/earths-temperature-30-to-50-percent-more-sensitive-to-co2-t han-previously-thought.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity
And sure alot implications, even to small diffrences.
Carbon Dioxide Sensitivity and Personality
Carbon Dioxide Sensitivity in Mosquitoes Infected with Sigma ...
Extrachromosomal Inheritance of Carbon Dioxide Sensitivity in the ...
Development of CO2 sensitivity: effects of gestational age ...
Adrenaline Increases Carotid Body CO2 Sensitivity: An in vivo Study
An Orbivirus of Mosquitoes Which Induces CO2 Sensitivity in ...
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&source=hp&q=co2+sensitivity
ATCF NOTICE file:
Posted as of Jan 28, 2010
-------------------------
Posted final Atlantic Basin data after post analysis was preformed.
I did a cursory review of the best track data and no upgrades/additions were noted.
The Fargo Moorhead area dodged a bullet last year not sure they will be so lucky this spring.
Meteogram from central(?) OK:
Clearly, the anemometer is well ice-covered...wind reports ceased once it was raining and 32 F...
Hope power isn't an issue for those folks...well at least not for days and weeks.
Oh, must be the questionable CRU temperature results as published in the IPCC and hosted at wiki putting off an odor...
(Sry, FLPanh...but those temperature time series plots are full of bad science.)
Looks like the Abilene radar a couple hours ago - its currently down now. Line coming over me now in Fort Worth is respectably heavy, not severe. PWS reports further south on the line aren't showing anything bad so far. Rain appreciated
lol.. im pretty sure there not correct.. sry posting something like that..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
24 years ago today, Space Shuttle Challenger exploded over Florida. Terrible day, terrible day. Ronald Reagan canceled his State of the Union that day because of it, held it the next week. RIP Challenger.
Postponed, not cancelled. postponed means to put off while cancel means to stop it forever
thank you Sister Mary Catherine...
;)
:)
Maybe they put one of these into orbit to measure ice thickness in the 50's...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 40
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST [8:30 am EST] Friday 29 January 2010
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the NT to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and
Mornington Island.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Gilbert River
Mouth to Pormpuraaw.
At 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be over
land 45 kilometres northwest of Borroloola and
355 kilometres west northwest of Mornington Island, moving northeast at 5
kilometres per hour towards the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during today where
it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone late today or early
Saturday.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Port
Roper and Gilbert River Mouth late today or early Saturday. GALES with gusts to
110 kilometres per hour may develop between Cape Shield and Port Roper late
today or early Saturday if the low takes a more northerly track.
GALES are not expected between Gilbert River Mouth and Pormpuraaw within the
next 24 hours. However, GALES may develop Saturday afternoon.
HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem Districts in the Northern Territory and Gulf
Country in Queensland.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory
coast and adjacent islands between Port McArthur and the Queensland Border this
evening.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are occurring along the Queensland Gulf of Carpentaria
coast and adjacent islands and are expected to exceed the high water mark at
high tide over the next few days.
People between Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland and Cape Shield in the Northern
Territory, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, should take
precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 am CST [11:30 am EST]. If you
are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is available from your
local government or local State Emergency Service.
Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 15.8 degrees South 136.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northeast at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Friday 29 January [11:30 am EST
Friday 29 January].
Much of Alberta's Rocky Mountain glaciers will melt away by 2100, turning white rivers of ice into rock and earth-brown landscapes, according to new research from the University of Calgary.
"It's a bit bleak for the glaciers, I must say," said climate change specialist and geophysicist Shawn Marshall. "It's well underway and it's just a matter, as the decades go on, of the ice rolling uphill until it's out of sight."
http://www.windsorstar.com/technology/Rocky%20Mountain%20glaciers%20fading%20fast%20researchers/248 3599/story.html
Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100
http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_model.htm
Note - older image does not show snow.
The Cryosphere Today
Compare Daily Sea Ice
Yes...it is all my fault. I own a car and burn gasoline to get my fat *** around.
It's all about me, folks! :)
MY SCIENCE FAIR PROJECT FOR THIS YEAR: Create a strong High pressure system near Bermuda!
LOL!
Great...make it stop then. Go ahead...give it the good old college try! LOL!!!!
Bottom line: The Earth and its climate is going to do whatever nature has in mind.
Try to stop any of it from happening! Let me know how that goes. :)
Hey Oz, is that exhaust from you I see in your avatar :)
The direction is right! The amount of output seems about right, too!
Put a methane bag on my ***! That's the ticket! :D
LOL!!!
I still don't think you read what you placed in your post on 505. You may want to check it :)
Here it is again to save you time with the full title.
Gavin Schmidt on the Acquittal of CO2
GAVIN SCHMIDT'S RESPONSE TO THE ACQUITTAL OF CO2
SHOULD SOUND THE DEATH KNELL FOR AGW
by Jeffrey A. Glassman, PhD
Wow, never heard of these.
Looking at teh wiki, there are peat fires too ... very grim.
Environmental impact
Besides destruction of the affected areas, coal fires emit gases that contribute to global warming, such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide and methane. China's coal fires, which consume an estimated 20 – 200 million tons of coal a year, make up as much as 1 percent of the global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels.[2] In addition to the production of toxic gases, changes to the landscape as a result of subsidence are particularly relevant. Other regional and local environmental effects include the adaptability of plants and animals to coal fires, which depends on the fire duration and extent of the affected area. As an example, in one case in Germany, many insects and spiders of Mediterranean origin could be identified which managed to survive the cold winters of the region because ground temperatures were increased by the fire.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_seam_fire
Peat Fires
Smoke and ozone pollution from Indonesian fires, 1997.
Peat has a high carbon content and can burn under low moisture conditions. Once ignited by the presence of a heat source (e.g. a wildfire penetrating the subsurface), it smoulders. These smouldering fires can burn undetected for very long periods of time (months, years and even centuries) propagating in a creeping fashion through the underground peat layer. Peat fires are emerging as a global threat with significant economic, social and ecological impacts. Recent burning of peat bogs in Indonesia, with their large and deep growths containing more than 50 billion tons of carbon, has contributed to increases in world carbon dioxide levels. Peat deposits in southeast Asia could be destroyed by 2040.
In 1997, it is estimated that peat and forest fires in Indonesia released between 0.81 and 2.57 Gt of carbon; equivalent to 13-40 percent of the amount released by global fossil fuel burning, and greater than the carbon uptake of the world's biosphere. These fires may be responsible for the acceleration in the increase in carbon dioxide levels since 1998.[13][14]
More than 100 peat fires in Kalimantan and East Sumatra continue to burn since 1997. Each year the peat fires in Kalimantan and East Sumatra ignite new forest fires above the ground.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peat#Fires
I am counting on them Patrap, and hopefully will be counting after the game :)
It's their turn! Since my Black and Gold did not get in this year I gotta go for the Saints !
I'll be on my way....L8R
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