Strongest winter storm in at least 140 years whallops Southwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on January 22, 2010

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The most powerful low pressure system in 140 years of record keeping swept through the Southwest U.S. yesterday, bringing deadly flooding, tornadoes, hail, hurricane force winds, and blizzard conditions. We expect to get powerful winter storms affecting the Southwest U.S. during strong El Niño events, but yesterday's storm was truly epic in its size and intensity. The storm set all-time low pressure records over roughly 10 - 15% of the U.S.--over southern Oregon, and most of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. Old records were broken by a wide margin in many locations, most notably in Los Angeles, where the old record of 29.25" set January 17, 1988, was shattered by .18" (6 mb). Bakersfield broke its record by .30" (10 mb). The record-setting low spawned an extremely intense cold front that rumbled thought the Southwest, and winds ahead of the cold front reached sustained speeds of hurricane force--74 mph--last night at Apache Junction, 40 miles east of Phoenix. Wind gusts as high as 94 mph were recorded in Ajo, Arizona, and a Personal Weather Station in Summerhaven (on top of Mt. Lemmon next to Tucson) recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 86 mph, before the power failed. Prescott recorded sustained winds at 52 mph, gusting to 67 as the cold front passed, and high winds plunged visibility to zero in blowing dust on I-10 connecting Phoenix and Tucson. The storm spawned one possible tornado in Arizona, which touched down at 8:32 pm MST in Phoenix near Desert Ridge Mall. No damage or injuries were reported. If verified, it would be only the 7th January tornado in Arizona since record keeping began in 1950.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from the Phoenix Doppler radar at the time of the Phoenix tornado. The tornado touched down under the circle with a "+" inside it. The Doppler velocity image did not show any rotation to the clouds in the vicinity.

Some of the all-time low pressure records set in yesterday's storm:
Los Angeles, CA: 29.07", Old Record: 29.25", January 17, 1988
Eureka, CA: 28.90", Old Record: 28.91", February 1891
San Diego, CA: 29.15", Old Record, 29.37", March 3, 1983
Fresno, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.10", January 27, 1916
Bakersfield, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.24", February 3, 1998

Salt Lake City, UT: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00" April 2002

Reno, NV: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00", January 27, 1916
Las Vegas, NV: 29.03" Old Record: 29.17", December 1949

Phoenix, AZ: 29.22", Old Record: 29.32", May 18, 1902
Flagstaff, AZ: 29.13", Old Record: 29.15", February 7, 1937
Yuma, AZ: 29.15", Old Record: 29.37", September 12, 1927

Three tornadoes in California
Three tornadoes were reported in California yesterday. A small EF0 twister hit the east side of Ventura, leaving a 1.5 mile damage path. Another tornado hit Santa Barbara, downing trees and power poles. The most damaging California tornado yesterday touched down just west of Blythe, on the Arizona-California border, at 4:31 pm MST. The twister crossed I-10, blowing three semi trucks over, ripping the roofs off houses, and downing power lines. I-10 was closed for several hours to clear the debris and toppled trucks.

Two tornadoes also hit Southern California on Tuesday. A sheriff's deputy spotted a possible tornado in Goleta that caused some roof damage, and another tornado hit Huntington Beach, damaging boats and buildings and flipping cars.

If all five tornadoes are confirmed as genuine by the National Weather Service, it will tie the record of most January California tornadoes. The all-time record for most California tornadoes in a single day is seven, set on April 1, 1996, and November 9, 1982.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado.

Figure 3. Storm-relative radial velocity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado. The area of yellow and orange colors, lying right next to a region of blues and greens just west of Santa Barbara shows that the winds in that region were moving towards and away from the radar in a very tight area, signifying the presence of a rotating thunderstorm and possible tornado.

The storm will continue to bring heavy rain and snow to many portions the Southwest today, then wind down on Saturday. A new storm is expected to move ashore over Northern California on Sunday night, but this storm will not be as intense. Another storm is also possible next Friday, January 29, but it appears that a renewed battering by a long succession of storms like we had this week will not occur next week.

Selected storm total snowfalls (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 3.2 NNW 36.5
SUNRISE MOUNTAIN 29.0
FOREST LAKES 26.0
HEBER 21.0
PINETOP/LAKESIDE 4 ESE 20.4
ALPINE 20.0
CLAY SPRINGS 20.0
CLINTS WELL 19.0
KACHINA VILLAGE 18.6
WILLIAMS 16.5
PRESCOTT 7.0

...CALIFORNIA...
CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 73.6
SODA SPRINGS 63.0
SUGAR BOWL 61.0
LWR RELIEF VALLEY 50.6
KIRKWOOD 48.0
SQUAW VALLEY 47.0
SIERRA AT TAHOE 38.0
BIG BEAR CITY 37.0

...COLORADO...
DURANGO 24.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9 NW 24.0
SILVERTON 24.0
WOLF CREEK PASS 1 SSE 24.0
ABAJO 19.0
TELLURIDE 15.0
COAL BANK PASS 14.5
RED MTN 12.3
CREEDE 10 SW 12.0
SOUTH FORK 4 SW 12.0
MOLAS PASS 10.0

...NEW MEXICO...
JEMEZ SPRINGS 14.0
CHAMA 12.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 10.5
AZTEC 8.0
BLUEWATER LAKE 11 WSW 8.0
BONITO LAKE 5 SW 8.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 8.0
LUNA 8.0
KIRTLAND 2 ESE 6.0
MOGOLLON 6 ESE 6.0
RAMAH 6.0
BLOOMFIELD 3 SW 5.5
LOS ALAMOS 5.5

...NEVADA...
YUCCA FLAT 20.0
BERRY CREEK 19.0
BIG CREEK SUMMIT 16.0
DRAW CREEK 13.0
POLE CREEK R.S. 13.0
MT. POTOSI 12.0
ELY 8.3
WARD MOUNTAIN 8.0
CHARLESTON 6.0

...UTAH...
BRIGHTON CREST 35.0
ALTA/COLLINS 33.5
DEER VALLEY DALY WEST 28.0
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 28.0
BIG COTTONWOOD SPRUCES 19.0
SOLITUDE 17.5
SNOWBIRD 13.5

Selected storm total precipitation (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
DAVIS-MONTHAN AFB/TUCSON 10.23
BLACK CANYON CITY 10 N 6.57
CROWN KING 6.50
SURPRISE 1 ESE 5.58
SUN CITY WEST 2 NNE 4.78
COTTONWOOD 1 WSW 4.63
SCOTTSDALE 5.5 NNW 4.21
NEW RIVER 5 ESE 4.05
WITTMAN 5 SW 4.05
PAYSON 4.01
PINE 1 SW 4.00
SIERRA VISTA 3.83
LUKE AFB/PHOENIX 3.58
CASTLE HOT SPRINGS 3.55
FLAGSTAFF PULLIAM AP 3.41
CLIFTON 2.96
WINSLOW 2.84
GILBERT 4 NW 2.74
CHANDLER 4 WNW 2.72
YUMA MCAF 2.43
PRESCOTT/ERNEST A LOVE FIELD AP 2.28
PHOENIX AIRPORT 2.21
TUCSON AIRPORT 0.52

...CALIFORNIA...
LOS GATOS 4 SW 14.70
CAZADERO 13.46
LYTLE CREEK 13.39
MINING RIDGE 13.14
PETROLIA 7 SE 12.17
BARTLETT SPRINGS 11.23
LAKE ARROWHEAD 11.23
ALTADENA 1 ESE 11.14
CLOVERDALE 1 S 10.30
CRESTLINE 10.27
DEVORE 9.58
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 8.04
UKIAH MUNI ARPT 7.58
NEWHALL 7.08
SANTA ROSA/SONOMA CO ARPT 6.55
SAN LUIS OBISPO ARPT 5.37
SAN DIEGO/MONTGOMERY FIELD 4.32
SAN FRANCISCO INTL ARPT 4.30
LOS ANGELES-USC 3.89
PALM SPRINGS RGNL ARPT 3.75
SACRAMENTO METRO ARPT 3.65
SAN JOSE INTL ARPT 3.19

...NEVADA...
NORTH LAS VEGAS AIRPORT 1.50
HENDERSON AIRPORT 1.17
MERCURY/DESERT ROCK ARPT 1.06

...OREGON...
AGNESS 6.4 NE 3.90
PORT ORFORD 5.0 E 3.52
BROOKINGS 4.2 ENE 2.83
BANDON 11.4 S 2.67
ASTORIA 1.45

...WASHINGTON...
HOQUIAM/BOWERMAN AIRPORT 2.01

Tornadoes, severe weather in the South
Severe weather associated with a separate storm brought damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes to portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida last night. Two tornadoes were reported, one in Tennessee, and one in Alabama, near Huntsville. The Huntsville tornado injured approximately six people, and cut power to 10,000 people. The storm responsible for the severe weather has moved out to sea, and no further severe weather is expected today. A slight chance of severe weather is expected Saturday over Arkansas and Mississippi, and there is also a severe weather threat for Georgia and surrounding states on Sunday.


Figure 4. Last night's Huntsville, Alabama tornado was captured by wunderphotographer Southampton.

Portlight's Paul Timmons to appear on NBC and CNN
Portlight.org, the disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, has successfully shipped medical equipment and a water filtration unit capable of supplying the needs of 3,500 people per day to the Dominican Republic. The relief supplies were trucked to Haiti via road, and have made it to the earthquake zone. The supplies have been targeted to go to those with disabilities, or to those who are living in areas where the main aid efforts have been inadequate. Portlight is working through the local Catholic Church, which is probably best positioned to deliver private aid donations to those in need. Paul Timmons, leader of the Portlight relief efforts, is scheduled to appear on NBC news later today, and on CNN news tomorrow, to discuss Portlight's efforts.


Figure 5. Walkers and medical supplies for Haiti getting ready to ship from the Portlight warehouse in Atlanta.

Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. The Reeve Foundation, founded by Christopher and Dana Reeve has awarded Portlight Strategies a $10,000 Quality of of Life grant to assist in the relief efforts in Haiti. This is very big and will allow Portlight to pursue more aggressive relief efforts over the course of the next few weeks.

For those of you more interested in helping out with the long-term rebuilding of Haiti's shattered infrastructure from the quake, I recommend a contribution to Lambi Fund of Haiti, a charity that is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level in Haiti. I've developed a great respect for the work they do in the country in the five years I've been a supporter.

Next post
My next post will be Monday.

Jeff Masters

Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California (annestahl)
Cops stand by closed road.
Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California
Southern California Snow (gemd)
A Pacific storm (usually warm) came and dropped snow in Southern California in area which rarely see snow. This was not even an "insider slider" (lingo for a northern, non-Pacific cold jet stream). Snow days for schools are rampant and there are many accidents on the roadways. Our snow is not the typical fluff, but very wet and slick.
Southern California Snow
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm (kempix)
Heavy Snowstorm came in last night with almost a foot of snow in the mountains of Prescott.
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm
Bad Luck (scphotos)
the ocean in Santa Barbara takes no prisoners
Bad Luck
Blue Thunder Bolt (LianesLightroom)
Amazing bolt of lightning strikes the Pacific Ocean in Manhattan Beach, CA.
Blue Thunder Bolt
Shrouded in Clouds (ChandlerMike)
I took a drive this morning to document some of this amazing weather we're having in Arizona. My path took me over to the Superstition Mountains east of Phoenix and I beheld some sights that I don't expect to see again. (HDR)
Shrouded in Clouds

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I've updated my blog; the entry was actually written by KitchenGypsy but as she has been having connection issues today so I put it up for her...

Check out the great work she's been doing for Portlight!
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Not only you ...



10.12.2009
Climate could warm to record levels in 2010
A combination of man-made global warming and a moderate warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as El Niño, means it is very likely that 2010 will be a warmer year globally than 2009.

Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850.

The latest forecast from our climate scientists, shows the global temperature is forecast to be almost 0.6 °C above the 1961–90 long-term average. This means that it is more likely than not that 2010 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record, beating the previous record year which was 1998.

A record warm year in 2010 is not a certainty, especially if the current El Niño was to unexpectedly decline rapidly near the start of 2010, or if there was a large volcanic eruption. We will review the forecast during 2010 as observation data become available.

Looking further ahead, our experimental decadal forecast confirms previous indications that about half the years 2010–2019 will be warmer than the warmest year observed so far — 1998.
Background information

* The 1961-90 global average mean temperature is 14.0 °C.
* Global temperature for 2010 is expected to be 14.58 °C, the warmest on record.
* The warmest year on record is 1998, which reached 14.52 °C, was a year dominated by an extreme El Niño
* Over the ten years, 2000–2009, since the Met Office has issued forecasts of annual global temperature, the mean value of the forecast error is 0.06 °C.
* Interannual variations of global surface temperature are strongly affected by the warming influences of El Niño and the cooling influences of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. 2009, with a provisionally observed temperature of 14.44 °C, can be compared with the identical forecast value of 14.44 °C.

The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, maintains a global temperature record which is used in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Each December or January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as El Niño and La Niña, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol particles, solar effects, volcanic cooling effects if known, and natural variations of the oceans.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html


Starting this new decade, global warming will likely accelerate due to oscillations and increased solar activity, then greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks will take over.
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The Psychology of Climate Ch
A Guide for Scientists,
Journalists, Educators,
Political Aides, and
the Interested Public

Welcome to the online home of the CRED Guide: The Psychology of Climate Change Communication, published by the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions at Columbia University. The guide is available in its entirety on this site, by clicking through the contents menu at left. You can also download a PDF of the guide or request a paper copy, below.
http://www.cred.columbia.edu/guide/
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting lordhuracan01:
I think we will have very warm 2010....


Not only you ...



10.12.2009
Climate could warm to record levels in 2010
A combination of man-made global warming and a moderate warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as El Niño, means it is very likely that 2010 will be a warmer year globally than 2009.

Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850.

The latest forecast from our climate scientists, shows the global temperature is forecast to be almost 0.6 °C above the 1961–90 long-term average. This means that it is more likely than not that 2010 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record, beating the previous record year which was 1998.

A record warm year in 2010 is not a certainty, especially if the current El Niño was to unexpectedly decline rapidly near the start of 2010, or if there was a large volcanic eruption. We will review the forecast during 2010 as observation data become available.

Looking further ahead, our experimental decadal forecast confirms previous indications that about half the years 2010–2019 will be warmer than the warmest year observed so far — 1998.
Background information

* The 1961-90 global average mean temperature is 14.0 °C.
* Global temperature for 2010 is expected to be 14.58 °C, the warmest on record.
* The warmest year on record is 1998, which reached 14.52 °C, was a year dominated by an extreme El Niño
* Over the ten years, 2000–2009, since the Met Office has issued forecasts of annual global temperature, the mean value of the forecast error is 0.06 °C.
* Interannual variations of global surface temperature are strongly affected by the warming influences of El Niño and the cooling influences of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. 2009, with a provisionally observed temperature of 14.44 °C, can be compared with the identical forecast value of 14.44 °C.

The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, maintains a global temperature record which is used in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Each December or January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as El Niño and La Niña, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol particles, solar effects, volcanic cooling effects if known, and natural variations of the oceans.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
SST are above normal in the Tropical North Atlantic, some of which may be related to the negative NAO





From the Monthly Ocean Briefing (PPT)
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


In 2004-2005, we had more wild temperature swings and more precipitation than this winter.


O gotcha.. i wonder what this will mean for the rest of ur weather for the winter in leading into the summer and maybe how active the atlantic hurricane season would be..
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


ya it has been wacky and crazy.. was this similar to 2004/2005 season?


In 2004-2005, we had more wild temperature swings and more precipitation than this winter.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


SST's are still dropping... look at same dates, im guessing you already did and since it didnt make your point you chose that date...


Again, notice the flatness of the near-20C SSTs. That pattern didn't develop until late December.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Comment updated. In S. Ontario north of KOG. In some periods of December earlier this season there's been more snow on the ground in Texas than here.


ya it has been wacky and crazy.. was this similar to 2004/2005 season?
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Quoting lordhuracan01:
I think we will have very warm 2010....

look this pictures of sea temperture....

this picture is from APRIL 22 of 09, look the black circle.


this is from today, look the red circle.

the sea temperture it is pulling up so fast.


I think in the same of 2005 hot season.....


SST's are still dropping... look at same dates, im guessing you already did and since it didnt make your point you chose that date...
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


where do u live? I live in the panhandle of fl of course.. ;)


Comment updated. In S. Ontario north of KOG. In some periods of December earlier this season there's been more snow on the ground in Texas than here.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I'm fine. But the amount of snow we've been getting is way below average. We've only had one major storm here this year.


where do u live? I live in the panhandle of fl of course.. ;)
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Thanks for the info.. I thought it did wasnt for sure.. so how u doing astro?


I'm fine. But the amount of snow we've been getting is way below average. We've only had one major snowstorm here this year while we'd usually get a few in December and sometimes November.

Look out for some more East Atlantic storms this year with that weakened gyre. Some strong hurricanes are likely in the Caribbean and on the East Coast. Storms near Bermuda are likely too.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Take a look at this: Link


Thanks for the info.. I thought it did wasnt for sure.. so how u doing astro?
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


also the northern gom is colder compare to start of 2009.. but it will warm up quickly.. looks like its going to be a long season that im affraid to say.. so with el nino in place, does that usually take more wind shear out compared to last season?


Take a look at this: Link
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Notice that in the current image, the 20C line is essentially FLAT from west to east. This shows that ocean currents are slowing down. I've been tracking global SSTs using saved images from WeatherUnderground, and it looks like this flatness first appeared in late December after the bulge in warmth in the West Atlantic near the Gulf Stream disappeared.


also the northern gom is colder compare to start of 2009.. but it will warm up quickly.. looks like its going to be a long season that im affraid to say.. so with el nino in place, does that usually take more wind shear out compared to last season?
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Quoting lordhuracan01:
I think we will have very warm 2010....

look this pictures of sea temperture....

this picture is from APRIL 22 of 09, look the black circle.


this is from today, look the red circle.

the sea temperture it is pulling up so fast.


I think in the same of 2005 hot season.....


Notice that in the current image, the 20C line is essentially FLAT from west to east. This shows that ocean currents are slowing down. I've been tracking global SSTs using saved images from WeatherUnderground, and it looks like this flatness first appeared in late December after the bulge in warmth in the West Atlantic near the Gulf Stream disappeared.
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GFS-model-run

i c sum changes to sum models.. but we would have to wait til it get closer if the systems form and the cold air will b there.. i think the cold air will b there for parts of the south.. the question is will the moisture..
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I think we will have very warm 2010....

look this pictures of sea temperture....

this picture is from APRIL 22 of 09, look the black circle.


this is from today, look the red circle.

the sea temperture it is pulling up so fast.


I think in the same of 2005 hot season.....
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not lookin good!
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

I googled this and wow

Jakobshavn Isbræ, also known as the Jakobshavn Glacier and Sermeq Kujalleq (in Greenlandic) is a large outlet glacier in West Greenland. It is located near to the Greenlandic town of Ilulissat (Danish: Jakobshavn) and ends at the sea in the Ilulissat Icefjord.

Jakobshavn Isbræ drains 6.5% of the Greenland ice sheet[1] and produces around 10% of all Greenland icebergs. Some 35 billion tonnes of icebergs calve off and pass out of the fjord every year. Icebergs breaking from the glacier are often so large (up to a kilometer in height) that they are too tall to float down the fjord and lie stuck on the bottom of its shallower areas, sometimes for years, until they are broken up by the force of the glacier and icebergs further up the fjord. Studied for over 250 years, Jakobshavn Isbræ has helped develop our understanding of climate change and icecap glaciology
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakobshavn_Isbr%C3%A6

Do you think the gulf stream will stay there?


Two-week forecast:

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Gulf Stream funelling directly into Jakobshavn Isbrae...

I googled this and wow

Jakobshavn Isbræ, also known as the Jakobshavn Glacier and Sermeq Kujalleq (in Greenlandic) is a large outlet glacier in West Greenland. It is located near to the Greenlandic town of Ilulissat (Danish: Jakobshavn) and ends at the sea in the Ilulissat Icefjord.

Jakobshavn Isbræ drains 6.5% of the Greenland ice sheet[1] and produces around 10% of all Greenland icebergs. Some 35 billion tonnes of icebergs calve off and pass out of the fjord every year. Icebergs breaking from the glacier are often so large (up to a kilometer in height) that they are too tall to float down the fjord and lie stuck on the bottom of its shallower areas, sometimes for years, until they are broken up by the force of the glacier and icebergs further up the fjord. Studied for over 250 years, Jakobshavn Isbræ has helped develop our understanding of climate change and icecap glaciology
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakobshavn_Isbr%C3%A6

Do you think the gulf stream will stay there?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Ronne Ice Shelf set to collapse in two weeks?

Isn't this already takeing place?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Gulf Stream funelling directly into Jakobshavn Isbrae...

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Ronne Ice Shelf set to collapse in two weeks?

Current salinity...





Two-week projection...

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Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
EIGHT people were killed and 13 are missing after flash floods smashed through villages in Indonesia's Southeast Sulawesi province, officials say.

The powerful waters were unleashed after the Rante Limbong river overflowed and rushed through five villages in Kolaka Utara district late Thursday, health ministry crisis centre chief Rustam Pakaya told AFP yesterday.

"Our latest data from local officials is that eight bodies have been found and 13 people went missing,'' he told AFP, adding that at least 16 houses were swept away.

Spokesman for the national disaster management centre, Priyadi Kardono, said rescuers were struggling to get to the villages.

"It's hard to reach the affected area... roads are cut off and the communication access is so difficult,'' he told AFP.

He said the floods had displaced 2,000 people who were now sheltering in local administration office buildings.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

Floods and landslides are common in Indonesia, which is densely populated and prone to frequent heavy rain.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/eight-killed-13-missing-in-flash-floods/story-e6frfku0-1225822 740279
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
How To Sell A Climate Change Bill to Americans

GOP pollster Frank Luntz used to be famous for advising Bush in 2002 to focus on the %u201Clack of scientific certainty%u201D in the debate about global warming. Fast forward eight years and now he%u2019s jumped the fence, well, sort of. He%u2019s teaming up with Fred Krupp of all people, president of the Environmental Defense Fund, to help the group figure out how to talk to the American people about global warming in a way that makes them care about it.

The EDF wants Congress to pass a bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and believes Americans really do want to see one pass. Two new polls prove it, one by the Benenson Strategy Group, which shows that 58 percent of Americans favor a cap on emissions. The other is by Luntz, and also shows Americans support climate regulation, but only when it%u2019s %u201Ccouched in terms of national security and jobs, as well as cleaner air,%u201D reporters for the American Public Media show Marketplace told us on Friday.

Luntz%u2019s report, %u201CThe Language of a Clean Energy Economy%u201D says generally Americans do believe the environment is worsening%u2014that the quality of our air, water and general environment is deteriorated over the last decade. Ditto for the quality of the world%u2019s environment.

Turns out Americans want action on climate change but not for the reasons they have heard over the years%u2014that it%u2019s important because pollutants in the air are bad for us, because a warming planet will cause rising seas, drought, hurricanes, vanishing species, etc. We believe it%u2019s real but we%u2019re only going to do something about it if you use words like %u201Cgreen jobs%u201D or, better yet, %u201CAmerican jobs.%u201D If you get rid of %u201Csustainability%u201D and instead say %u201Ccleaner, safer, healthier.%u201D
Full Article
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Repeat?


;)
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Repeat?
(Groundhog Day?)
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Well said iceagecoming!
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I'm out for a while. Have fun while I am gone....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Is that last picture real?

Processed - see the HDR tag
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Yes Baha you are correct. We have enough drama with the storms and storm wanabee's during the season without any other contrivance.
LOL.... I was just thinking it's like July in here, when everybody is waiting for the season to "ramp up", so to speak. I do know Febrary and March are generally busier in the Sern Hemi., so I'm saving my "energies" for then....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


I think it was Ike

Whoopsie, that's why we need the smart gramma's around. (And yup, I already apologized to Patrap.)

I'd love your input, GrtLksQuest -- I've posted something like this on a couple members blogs -- I'm doing some Shameful (as opposed to Shameless) self-promotion. I have a new blog post and I'm asking for more ideas for de-cluttering, selling, trading, giving up...that might actually make our own lives and others' better. I have a strong suspicion that your comments would be wise and useful! TIA.

ADD: BBL. Nice day here -- things to do and promises to keep.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


LOL! SOOO true -- Why, I aughta' flame you, young man! (JUST joking.)

Say, wasn't PAT the one burning his leaves this year?
AND enjoying it immensely???


I think it was Ike
Member Since: November 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
The "eye" of the East Coast storm has moved northeast of Bermuda.
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Quoting:
patrap 4:45 PM GMT on January 23, 2010


All the bloggers who deny the data should expound their own Hypothesis for the warming in a blog entry of their own.

Im sure those with the intellect of that caliber can easily account for the whereabouts of the tonnage of CO2 and other Fossil Fuel burning derived toxins that pollute the Earths atmosphere 24/7/365.

Should be good reading.


Seems like lots of scientists would beg to differ. I suspect it won't jive with AGW "science"

It is not the responsibility of ‘climate
realist’ scientists to prove that dangerous human-caused climate change is not happening. Rather, it is those who propose that it is, and promote the allocation of massive investments to solve the supposed ‘problem’, who have the obligation to convincingly demonstrate that recent climate change is not of mostly natural origin and, if we do nothing, catastrophic change will ensue. To date, this they have utterly failed to do so.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Addressed to His Excellency Ban Ki Moon, Secretary-General, United Nations, New York, NY, United States of America; dated 8 December 2009
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1096
Testing 123
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Yes Baha you are correct. We have enough drama with the storms and storm wanabee's during the season without any other contrivance.
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Quoting Patrap:
Comfort shared among the ones who cant digest the Climate Change data and reality is attune to well,a feeling of oneness.

Or a Kum-bah-yah moment of well...,schoolyard recess pacts.

LOL

The data and peer reviewed reality is empirical and not subject to emotional digression.





>So True:

The intense cold air that affected us for the 4 week period from mid Dec to mid Jan is currently still over the near continent. Milder air has tried to re assert itself from the southwest this week, but has struggled to make inroads. So the UK is in the middle of a battle, and where the mild air from the southwest meets the cold continental air, there is always a risk of snow. Snow fell across parts of Wales and Southwest Britain yesterday, but the weather front bringing milder air was defeated by the cold air. The next one tonight will succeed, and as it does so the rain it brings could turn to snow for a time across the hills of Northern Britain.

What happens next is very finely balanced. Most operational models bring cold air back from the continent into eastern areas later in the weekend and into early next week. But what happens after that is very much open to question.

Each computer model runs a number of times, varying the initial starting conditions of the atmosphere very slightly to see what happens to the forecast. This is called ensemble forecasting. It gives us an indication of how likely, for example, a cold easterly is likely to last next week. The ensembles are telling us at the moment that only very small differences in the initial atmospheric conditions could result in very big changes to our weather next week. Some solutions bring mild air in from the northwest; others maintain and intensify the cold air from the east. In fact the ensembles are telling us that there is a 50/50 balance between those solutions having milder air winning by mid-week, and those which keep it cold.

We have already discussed the implications of El Nino Pacific warming in earlier blogs.

Our weather can be influenced in later Winter and early Spring by El Niño events in the Pacific. It's thought the warming of the stratosphere it brings has a knock on effect on the troposphere - the part of the atmosphere which is important to us - in causing the normal free flow of Atlantic weather systems from the west to stop, as higher pressure causes a 'block' in the atmosphere.

It was certainly an excellent indicator of the cold spell we had in December. But it is by no means a guarantee.

Throw into the mix Piers Corbyn's latest forecast from Weather Action, signalled weeks ago and re-iterated yesterday that next week will turn milder across the UK, due to the influence of solar magnetic particles on our atmosphere, then it's certainly going to be interesting to see which scenario wins. He also expects February to see a return to cold and at times wintry conditions.

Based on a cold and a mild scenario next week I have tried to estimate how cold January is likely to look at the end of the month, following December which was the coldest since 1996.

1) Cold weather winning next week:

It turns out that January would be the coldest, based on the Central England Temperature data set, since 1987, with a forecast CET of around 0.94C (compared to the January mean of 4.2C).

2) Milder weather winning next week:

The CET figure would be around 2.05C. This would still mean January would be the coldest since 1987.

So whichever outcome occurs, it would be in the top 50 coldest Januarys since CET records began 350 years ago

To bad our friends in OZ could't get some.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1096
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Is that last picture real?


Kinda reminds one of this image..




..and Maybe the Mayans are right.
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Is that last picture real?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
My thoughts exactly, though I prolly wouldn't have described it as animal abuse.... lol

Good morning, everybody! Weather is rather sullen here this morning, but temps are still warm - 81 degrees with a predicted high of 77 LOL - so I'm not complaining too much.

Looking at the OZ storm (Olga, right?) I notice they are now forecasting a chance of reintensification in the GoC.....

It's projected path will give it about 24hrs over water, If it took a slight jump to the north at would give it more time over water and more to to intensify.



TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:06am EST on Sunday the 24th of January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island areas from Cape
Melville to Cardwell.

At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 2 was estimated to be
215 kilometres east northeast of Port Douglas and 210 kilometres east northeast
of Cairns moving west northwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Olga, category 2, is currently located over the northwest Coral
Sea and is continuing to move steadily towards the coast.

GALES are expected to develop about the coast between Cape Melville and Cardwell
this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are likely to develop about the coast between Cooktown and
Cairns by late morning.

Very heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected to develop about the
North Tropical Coast during the day.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, abnormally high tides are expected between
Cape Tribulation and Innisfail, but the sea level should not exceed the highest
tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

People between Cape Melville and Cardwell should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be
secured as quickly as possible.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 147.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 983 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Sunday 24 January.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting Patrap:


Not me,..hard to burn anything outside Uptown here,..fire dept would be Like..

Yo,Dude..?

Sorry, Pat... maybe it was that Canadian, Orca -- he's not here to defend himself, is he? lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
My thoughts exactly, though I prolly wouldn't have described it as animal abuse.... lol

Good morning, everybody! Weather is rather sullen here this morning, but temps are still warm - 81 degrees with a predicted high of 77 LOL - so I'm not complaining too much.

Looking at the OZ storm (Olga, right?) I notice they are now forecasting a chance of reintensification in the GoC.....


Again, I'm predicting that the storm will strengthen to cat. 3 in the GoC and then re-emerge west of Australia.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
This Blog should be called the everything blog hosted by Jerry Hathaway.
But only during the off season.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
A good day to one and all i see we are still beating the horse with that stick
My thoughts exactly, though I prolly wouldn't have described it as animal abuse.... lol

Good morning, everybody! Weather is rather sullen here this morning, but temps are still warm - 81 degrees with a predicted high of 77 LOL - so I'm not complaining too much.

Looking at the OZ storm (Olga, right?) I notice they are now forecasting a chance of reintensification in the GoC.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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