Strongest winter storm in at least 140 years whallops Southwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on January 22, 2010

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The most powerful low pressure system in 140 years of record keeping swept through the Southwest U.S. yesterday, bringing deadly flooding, tornadoes, hail, hurricane force winds, and blizzard conditions. We expect to get powerful winter storms affecting the Southwest U.S. during strong El Niño events, but yesterday's storm was truly epic in its size and intensity. The storm set all-time low pressure records over roughly 10 - 15% of the U.S.--over southern Oregon, and most of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. Old records were broken by a wide margin in many locations, most notably in Los Angeles, where the old record of 29.25" set January 17, 1988, was shattered by .18" (6 mb). Bakersfield broke its record by .30" (10 mb). The record-setting low spawned an extremely intense cold front that rumbled thought the Southwest, and winds ahead of the cold front reached sustained speeds of hurricane force--74 mph--last night at Apache Junction, 40 miles east of Phoenix. Wind gusts as high as 94 mph were recorded in Ajo, Arizona, and a Personal Weather Station in Summerhaven (on top of Mt. Lemmon next to Tucson) recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 86 mph, before the power failed. Prescott recorded sustained winds at 52 mph, gusting to 67 as the cold front passed, and high winds plunged visibility to zero in blowing dust on I-10 connecting Phoenix and Tucson. The storm spawned one possible tornado in Arizona, which touched down at 8:32 pm MST in Phoenix near Desert Ridge Mall. No damage or injuries were reported. If verified, it would be only the 7th January tornado in Arizona since record keeping began in 1950.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from the Phoenix Doppler radar at the time of the Phoenix tornado. The tornado touched down under the circle with a "+" inside it. The Doppler velocity image did not show any rotation to the clouds in the vicinity.

Some of the all-time low pressure records set in yesterday's storm:
Los Angeles, CA: 29.07", Old Record: 29.25", January 17, 1988
Eureka, CA: 28.90", Old Record: 28.91", February 1891
San Diego, CA: 29.15", Old Record, 29.37", March 3, 1983
Fresno, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.10", January 27, 1916
Bakersfield, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.24", February 3, 1998

Salt Lake City, UT: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00" April 2002

Reno, NV: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00", January 27, 1916
Las Vegas, NV: 29.03" Old Record: 29.17", December 1949

Phoenix, AZ: 29.22", Old Record: 29.32", May 18, 1902
Flagstaff, AZ: 29.13", Old Record: 29.15", February 7, 1937
Yuma, AZ: 29.15", Old Record: 29.37", September 12, 1927

Three tornadoes in California
Three tornadoes were reported in California yesterday. A small EF0 twister hit the east side of Ventura, leaving a 1.5 mile damage path. Another tornado hit Santa Barbara, downing trees and power poles. The most damaging California tornado yesterday touched down just west of Blythe, on the Arizona-California border, at 4:31 pm MST. The twister crossed I-10, blowing three semi trucks over, ripping the roofs off houses, and downing power lines. I-10 was closed for several hours to clear the debris and toppled trucks.

Two tornadoes also hit Southern California on Tuesday. A sheriff's deputy spotted a possible tornado in Goleta that caused some roof damage, and another tornado hit Huntington Beach, damaging boats and buildings and flipping cars.

If all five tornadoes are confirmed as genuine by the National Weather Service, it will tie the record of most January California tornadoes. The all-time record for most California tornadoes in a single day is seven, set on April 1, 1996, and November 9, 1982.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado.

Figure 3. Storm-relative radial velocity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado. The area of yellow and orange colors, lying right next to a region of blues and greens just west of Santa Barbara shows that the winds in that region were moving towards and away from the radar in a very tight area, signifying the presence of a rotating thunderstorm and possible tornado.

The storm will continue to bring heavy rain and snow to many portions the Southwest today, then wind down on Saturday. A new storm is expected to move ashore over Northern California on Sunday night, but this storm will not be as intense. Another storm is also possible next Friday, January 29, but it appears that a renewed battering by a long succession of storms like we had this week will not occur next week.

Selected storm total snowfalls (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 3.2 NNW 36.5
SUNRISE MOUNTAIN 29.0
FOREST LAKES 26.0
HEBER 21.0
PINETOP/LAKESIDE 4 ESE 20.4
ALPINE 20.0
CLAY SPRINGS 20.0
CLINTS WELL 19.0
KACHINA VILLAGE 18.6
WILLIAMS 16.5
PRESCOTT 7.0

...CALIFORNIA...
CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 73.6
SODA SPRINGS 63.0
SUGAR BOWL 61.0
LWR RELIEF VALLEY 50.6
KIRKWOOD 48.0
SQUAW VALLEY 47.0
SIERRA AT TAHOE 38.0
BIG BEAR CITY 37.0

...COLORADO...
DURANGO 24.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9 NW 24.0
SILVERTON 24.0
WOLF CREEK PASS 1 SSE 24.0
ABAJO 19.0
TELLURIDE 15.0
COAL BANK PASS 14.5
RED MTN 12.3
CREEDE 10 SW 12.0
SOUTH FORK 4 SW 12.0
MOLAS PASS 10.0

...NEW MEXICO...
JEMEZ SPRINGS 14.0
CHAMA 12.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 10.5
AZTEC 8.0
BLUEWATER LAKE 11 WSW 8.0
BONITO LAKE 5 SW 8.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 8.0
LUNA 8.0
KIRTLAND 2 ESE 6.0
MOGOLLON 6 ESE 6.0
RAMAH 6.0
BLOOMFIELD 3 SW 5.5
LOS ALAMOS 5.5

...NEVADA...
YUCCA FLAT 20.0
BERRY CREEK 19.0
BIG CREEK SUMMIT 16.0
DRAW CREEK 13.0
POLE CREEK R.S. 13.0
MT. POTOSI 12.0
ELY 8.3
WARD MOUNTAIN 8.0
CHARLESTON 6.0

...UTAH...
BRIGHTON CREST 35.0
ALTA/COLLINS 33.5
DEER VALLEY DALY WEST 28.0
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 28.0
BIG COTTONWOOD SPRUCES 19.0
SOLITUDE 17.5
SNOWBIRD 13.5

Selected storm total precipitation (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
DAVIS-MONTHAN AFB/TUCSON 10.23
BLACK CANYON CITY 10 N 6.57
CROWN KING 6.50
SURPRISE 1 ESE 5.58
SUN CITY WEST 2 NNE 4.78
COTTONWOOD 1 WSW 4.63
SCOTTSDALE 5.5 NNW 4.21
NEW RIVER 5 ESE 4.05
WITTMAN 5 SW 4.05
PAYSON 4.01
PINE 1 SW 4.00
SIERRA VISTA 3.83
LUKE AFB/PHOENIX 3.58
CASTLE HOT SPRINGS 3.55
FLAGSTAFF PULLIAM AP 3.41
CLIFTON 2.96
WINSLOW 2.84
GILBERT 4 NW 2.74
CHANDLER 4 WNW 2.72
YUMA MCAF 2.43
PRESCOTT/ERNEST A LOVE FIELD AP 2.28
PHOENIX AIRPORT 2.21
TUCSON AIRPORT 0.52

...CALIFORNIA...
LOS GATOS 4 SW 14.70
CAZADERO 13.46
LYTLE CREEK 13.39
MINING RIDGE 13.14
PETROLIA 7 SE 12.17
BARTLETT SPRINGS 11.23
LAKE ARROWHEAD 11.23
ALTADENA 1 ESE 11.14
CLOVERDALE 1 S 10.30
CRESTLINE 10.27
DEVORE 9.58
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 8.04
UKIAH MUNI ARPT 7.58
NEWHALL 7.08
SANTA ROSA/SONOMA CO ARPT 6.55
SAN LUIS OBISPO ARPT 5.37
SAN DIEGO/MONTGOMERY FIELD 4.32
SAN FRANCISCO INTL ARPT 4.30
LOS ANGELES-USC 3.89
PALM SPRINGS RGNL ARPT 3.75
SACRAMENTO METRO ARPT 3.65
SAN JOSE INTL ARPT 3.19

...NEVADA...
NORTH LAS VEGAS AIRPORT 1.50
HENDERSON AIRPORT 1.17
MERCURY/DESERT ROCK ARPT 1.06

...OREGON...
AGNESS 6.4 NE 3.90
PORT ORFORD 5.0 E 3.52
BROOKINGS 4.2 ENE 2.83
BANDON 11.4 S 2.67
ASTORIA 1.45

...WASHINGTON...
HOQUIAM/BOWERMAN AIRPORT 2.01

Tornadoes, severe weather in the South
Severe weather associated with a separate storm brought damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes to portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida last night. Two tornadoes were reported, one in Tennessee, and one in Alabama, near Huntsville. The Huntsville tornado injured approximately six people, and cut power to 10,000 people. The storm responsible for the severe weather has moved out to sea, and no further severe weather is expected today. A slight chance of severe weather is expected Saturday over Arkansas and Mississippi, and there is also a severe weather threat for Georgia and surrounding states on Sunday.


Figure 4. Last night's Huntsville, Alabama tornado was captured by wunderphotographer Southampton.

Portlight's Paul Timmons to appear on NBC and CNN
Portlight.org, the disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, has successfully shipped medical equipment and a water filtration unit capable of supplying the needs of 3,500 people per day to the Dominican Republic. The relief supplies were trucked to Haiti via road, and have made it to the earthquake zone. The supplies have been targeted to go to those with disabilities, or to those who are living in areas where the main aid efforts have been inadequate. Portlight is working through the local Catholic Church, which is probably best positioned to deliver private aid donations to those in need. Paul Timmons, leader of the Portlight relief efforts, is scheduled to appear on NBC news later today, and on CNN news tomorrow, to discuss Portlight's efforts.


Figure 5. Walkers and medical supplies for Haiti getting ready to ship from the Portlight warehouse in Atlanta.

Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. The Reeve Foundation, founded by Christopher and Dana Reeve has awarded Portlight Strategies a $10,000 Quality of of Life grant to assist in the relief efforts in Haiti. This is very big and will allow Portlight to pursue more aggressive relief efforts over the course of the next few weeks.

For those of you more interested in helping out with the long-term rebuilding of Haiti's shattered infrastructure from the quake, I recommend a contribution to Lambi Fund of Haiti, a charity that is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level in Haiti. I've developed a great respect for the work they do in the country in the five years I've been a supporter.

Next post
My next post will be Monday.

Jeff Masters

Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California (annestahl)
Cops stand by closed road.
Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California
Southern California Snow (gemd)
A Pacific storm (usually warm) came and dropped snow in Southern California in area which rarely see snow. This was not even an "insider slider" (lingo for a northern, non-Pacific cold jet stream). Snow days for schools are rampant and there are many accidents on the roadways. Our snow is not the typical fluff, but very wet and slick.
Southern California Snow
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm (kempix)
Heavy Snowstorm came in last night with almost a foot of snow in the mountains of Prescott.
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm
Bad Luck (scphotos)
the ocean in Santa Barbara takes no prisoners
Bad Luck
Blue Thunder Bolt (LianesLightroom)
Amazing bolt of lightning strikes the Pacific Ocean in Manhattan Beach, CA.
Blue Thunder Bolt
Shrouded in Clouds (ChandlerMike)
I took a drive this morning to document some of this amazing weather we're having in Arizona. My path took me over to the Superstition Mountains east of Phoenix and I beheld some sights that I don't expect to see again. (HDR)
Shrouded in Clouds

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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
this one might, care to let me know later if it is up to your standards? thanks ;)

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this does tho :P Lol




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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 24, 1:54 am EST

A Few Clouds

49 °F
(9 °C)
Humidity: 77 %
Wind Speed: SE 15 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 29.46" (997.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 42 °F (6 °C)
Wind Chill: 43 °F (6 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


p.s. this doesnt self update ;)
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Quoting transitzone:

Oh, folks trying to use tools they don't understand, been there most of my career. Pity they don't learn ;-)


so either you could be a smart*** or tell me how to fix it. Hmmm
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Quoting tornadodude:


I dont know how to post a non-updating loop from that site.

Oh, folks trying to use tools they don't understand, been there most of my career. Pity they don't learn ;-)
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The Euro and GFS are doing the same thing they did in December in trying to spit up some wintery precip for central and southern Florida by mid FEB(two weeks ago they wanted to do the event on Ground Hogs Day).
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alright, I'm going to bed, have a goodnight everyone
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Quoting tornadodude:


I dont know how to post a non-updating loop from that site.

I'm Matt btw, Justin


Gotcha..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
G'morning, Aussie!
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Quoting transitzone:

So what, pray tell, is the point of including real time radar loops in this blog discussion? Anybody reading real time can get them real time elsewhere. Anybody reading back entries will only see what's happening when they read, not what the OP wanted to point out. I guess I miss the point, must be getting old or something


I dont know how to post a non-updating loop from that site.

I'm Matt btw, Justin
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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting tornadodude:
and here comes the rain:

>

So what, pray tell, is the point of including real time radar loops in this blog discussion? Anybody reading real time can get them real time elsewhere. Anybody reading back entries will only see what's happening when they read, not what the OP wanted to point out. I guess I miss the point, must be getting old or something
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, should be interesting for ya


hey whats ur name tornadodude?? Im Justin btw.. but u can call me JG if thats ez.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

sure is.. im just gettin pop up storms near me but im expectin to get more close 8am central time.. but b4 that theres alot of moisture to have sum strong pop up storms to build.. specially when im close to the warm front with unstable environment.. its goin to b interesting..


yeah, should be interesting for ya
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Quoting tornadodude:
mine too: link

sure is.. im just gettin pop up storms near me but im expectin to get more close 8am central time.. but b4 that theres alot of moisture to have sum strong pop up storms to build.. specially when im close to the warm front with unstable environment.. its goin to b interesting..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
mine too: link
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my radar is startin to pick up.. not looking good sooner or later..
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while everyone is sleeping, I'll do a hardware clean and polish of my pc. Sweet dreams everyone.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Goodnight Awake, peace
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Sounds like Port Douglas is the place to go for a Cyclone Party!

Yeah, maybe sleepy-time is a good idea...gotta' find my doggys and hubby? G'nite all! Happy game-watching tomorrow.
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Goodnight Aussie glad it went in the right direction strength wise. I guess you can always use a little water down there hope it falls were needed.
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I guess everyone turned in early for the night to get ready for the big football day tomorrow. It will probably turn out to be more interesting than the supper bowl.
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I hope long range gfs is wrong. Supposed to go to a wedding at Captiva Isl. Feb 6. Looks like GFS has a hell of a storm crossing central Fl. at that time.
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All calm as Cyclone Olga hits Port Douglas

Evan Schwarten

Sunday, January 24, 2010

The Cairns Post



JANUARY 24, 3.10pm: The disaster management centres were activated, safety warnings had been broadcast all day but as Cyclone Olga beared down on Port Douglas, locals and tourists couldn't have been less concerned.

As the cyclone, downgraded to a category 1, crossed the coast at about 2pm on Sunday, it was business as usual on the town's main street.

Pictures: Cyclone Olga

The town's Central Hotel was packed with tennis fans there to watch the Australian Open on the big screen while knocking back a few beers.

Down the road at the Courthouse Hotel, the house jazz band was in the mood for irony, playing hits including I can See Clearly Now and Always Look on the Bright Side of Life against a backdrop of storm clouds and intermittent rain.

Visiting performer Anita Service, with her colourful attire and boisterous manner, seemed to gather more interest than the storm in the hour leading up to Olga's arrival.

With a troop of fans following, the lively party host declared she was ready to party through the cyclone.

"We're getting ready for the big blow with massive cocktails," she said.

Melburnian Chris Mcfarlane said he was disappointed his planned snorkeling trip had been cancelled but was making the most of the situation by stocking up on a carton of beer to wait out the bad weather.

"We're not sure what to expect but hopefully we will be lucky enough to go out tomorrow," he said.

News report on TC Olga Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
North braces for Cyclone Olga, floods and gales



Peter Michael and AAP

January 24, 2010 02:24pm

UPDATE: Most of the north Queensland coastline is expected to be battered by two violent weather systems as both category 2 Cyclone Olga and ex-tropical cyclone Neville approach from the sea.

Olga was expected to hit around the Port Douglas region at 2.30pm, bringing with it winds of up to 140 km/h.

Premier Anna Bligh said rainfalls up to 300mm in some regions were predicted and localised flooding could be expected.

``We're also expecting very strong winds, particularly damaging to older buildings and we do have teams on stand by,'' she said.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Jim Davidson said ex-tropical cyclone Neville, which remained a low pressure system, had re-intensified.

''(Ex-tropical cyclone Neville) is almost the equivalent of a low category one cyclone now,'' he said.

``It is expected to hit the coast somewhere between Townsville and Mackay later on Sunday.''
He said he had never seen the unusual dual weather pattern before, which will bring severe weather from as far south as Sarina, to as far north as the Coen.

``What we have at the moment are two systems in the Coral Sea dumbbelling each other,'' he said.

``The stronger system is definitely Olga. But the weaker system, ex-tropical cyclone Neville just won't go away.''

Emergency Management Queensland have activated local disaster management groups in all the areas likely to be impacted.

Ms Bligh said volunteers would be in place to deal with any damage and disaster funding would be available for residents in need following the cyclone.

``It's yet to be seen how serious and how fierce this cyclonic activity is, but it is a very serious weather pattern and it is scheduled to cross the coast around a very heavily populated area,'' she said.

Meteorologist Ann Farrell from the Bureau of Meteorology's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre said Olga was expected to move westerly while losing intensity until it moved into Cape York.
The system was then expected to emerge in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday night or Tuesday morning.

``There is the possibility then for it to then reform and get back into tropical cyclone intensity over the waters in the gulf,'' Ms Farrell said.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Service assistant commissioner for the far north region Wayne Weston warned residents to stay away from floodwaters.

``Each year, lives are tragically lost from people venturing in and around floodwaters,'' Mr Weston said in a statement.

``Please obey all traffic signs and road closures and do not attempt to cross flooded roads, even if this means having to stay at home.''

North braces for floods, gales

Far north Queensland residents spent the morning battening down, clearing yards, and stocking up on supplies.

Emergency warning signals broadcast live on radio can be heard echoing in homes across the region.

Supermarkets are busy with locals buying up last-minute goods including canned foods, batteries and lanterns.

This morning the Category two tropical cyclone Olga intensified and picked up speed as it heads towards the coast at 12km/h amid warnings of destructive winds, heavy rain and localised flooding.

Cooktown, Port Douglas, and the tourist village at Cape Tribulation are expected to be closest to the eye of the storm as it crosses the coast between 4pm and 5pm, in the latest update by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Three disaster management co-ordination centres have been activated, one in Cooktown, two in Cairns, with “everyone well prepared’’, say officials.

Emergency Management Queensland regional director Wayne Coutts said gale force winds were expected to start buffeting the coast near Cairns by lunchtime.

“It is still fairly calm at the moment,’’ Mr Coutts said.

“It will pick up later.’’

Cooktown is already cut off from the south with the McLeod River crossing flooded on the Mulligan highway south of Lakeland Downs.

The Rex Range road near Mossman has also been cut with trees down across the road.

Within hours of the Cyclone Olga alert being raised early yesterday, a team of State Emergency Service volunteers was called in to replenish sandbag stocks depleted by minor flooding on Friday night in the aftermath of ex-tropical cyclone Neville.

Green Island Resort, east of Cairns, is being evacuated this morning and all Great Barrier Reef tours have been cancelled with predictions of 90km/h winds out to sea.

Cairns Airport moved to stage two of its alert system after the weather bureau upgraded its forecast to a cyclone warning at 5pm but no flights had been cancelled as of late yesterday.

Cyclone Olga surprised far north Queensland residents by forming in the Coral Sea late on Friday night in the shadow of the weakening and downgraded former tropical cyclone Neville.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:01pm EST on Sunday the 24th of January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coast, island and adjacent inland areas from
Cooktown to Cairns.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and
islands from Karumba to Borroloola.

At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 1 was estimated to be
15 kilometres east of Cape Tribulation and 95 kilometres north of Cairns
moving west at 16 kilometres per hour.

GALES are expected about the coast between Cooktown and Cairns and adjacent
inland areas during the afternoon.

Very heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected to develop about the
North Tropical Coast.

Abnormally high tides are expected between Cooktown and Cairns, but the sea
level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely
along the beachfront.

People between Cooktown and Cairns should remain inside until the cyclone has
passed and listen to the next advice at 5pm.

People between Karumba in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and Borroloola in the
Northern Territory should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 145.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 986 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Sunday 24 January.

TC Olga is about to make land-fall, as seen on RADAR
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
593 drqodOwnCountry 12:24 AM GMT on January 24, 2010

Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah. The Met office has called for the hottest [insert season here] for a long time now...which has almost always failed to materialize.

So bad, that I am told most in the UK expect the opposite of the Met seasonal forecast. And the BBC considering a change after such poor forecasts lately:

The Met Office risks losing its lucrative deal to provide weather forecasts to the BBC after the corporation decided to put the contract out for tender for what is believed to be the first time since 1923, it emerged today.

The decision to invite rival forecasters to bid for the contract comes during a difficult spell for the Met Office, which is under fire following a series of botched predictions. The service's long-range forecast was of an "odds-on barbecue summer", which ended up sodden. Last week it failed to anticipate heavy snowfall in the south-east that brought traffic to a standstill. While it issued a forecast in autumn proclaiming that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%, rival forecasters correctly predicted colder than normal weather. The Met Office, which is owned by the Ministry of Defence, has held the contract to provide the BBC's weather since the service began broadcasting, a BBC spokesman said.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/jan/17/bbc-weather-met-office-contract-metra

That is not correct because the annual forecast accuracy is around 0.75 or 0.85 if i remember correctly. And you mix short with long term prediction.
Well did anyone saw this negative NAO coming?
Can anyone predict how long this will last?
I guess this is a pattern of major climate shift.


It appears Atmo has a valid point as it has been noticed by many others as well as former
employees of the MET office:
The Major shift is in the program:
Software eng. 101: Garbage in, garbage out:
Or dare I say Propaganda in, you know the rest.
A frozen Britain turns up the heat up on the MET office:

Paul Hudson 13:34 UK time, Saturday, 9 January 2010


Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. I've been interested in the weather and climate for as long as I can remember, and worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for more than ten years locally and at the international unit before joining the BBC in October 2007.


So why, at the same time that Joe Bastardi at Accuweather.com forecast a cold winter did the Met Office issue a forecast saying that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%?

Clearly there is the rest of January and February to go, but such has been the intensity of the cold spell, which next week will run into its 4th week, then it would take something remarkable during the rest of winter for the Met Office's forecast to be right. It's also worth remembering that this comes off the back of the now infamous barbeque summer forecast, and lets not forget last winter, which the Met Office said again would be mild, but turned out to be the coldest for over 10 years.

The answer may well be quite straight forward. It's likely that the all powerful and dominant Hadley centre supercomputer predicted very little chance of a cold winter, just like it did last winter, and that, as they say, was that.

Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centre's predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this?



http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/



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Quoting futuremet:
The SSTs for 2010 seems to be warmer this time of year than 2009. This could catalyze tropical cyclogenesis during Hurricane season, if this keeps up.





Noticeably cooler in the EPAC too.
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and here comes the rain:

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Looks like tropical storms can strengthen on land now... still supposed to be a TS after 3 days over land.

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Wow, look what's in the northern PAC now, if thats not a perfect comma I dunno what is.
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Astro it would be nice to have a comparsion image or a few.(ie. 2005 or 2009 at least).
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Here are the global SST anomalies again:

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting futuremet:
The SSTs for 2010 seems to be warmer this time of year than 2009. This could catalyze tropical cyclogenesis during Hurricane season, if this keeps up.





Futuremet, how are you doing? Some of us were wondering about you after the devastating earthquake that hit Haiti. In the SST maps, it appears that currently the 20C line is flat, likely because of a slowing of global ocean currents.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
A grain Tanker named "Joyous Age" appears out the Fog this evening at Audubon Bend on the Mississippi River above NOLA by 4 miles..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
A quick update: Our shipment of donated medical supplies from Michigan is being loaded on UN planes as we speak; the UN has a critical needs manifest and they are taking from our shipment based on that list; the rest of the shipment, what little is left, will be shipped out on Monday.

By the way, for those that don't read the backblog, I've updated my blog with an entry written by KitchenGypsy, our amazing volunteer in Michigan. It has photos of the shipment and one of KG herself...she is truly dedicated and we are lucky to have her working for Portlight!
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Not going to happen.


That would be funny if it did happen. Two wintry precip events in one season would definitely go down in the history books!

But regardless, the cold anomalies are returning!!!!!

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The Greenland block is expected to set up again as we head into the month of February(keeping those SST's up in the tropical North Atlantic). With a Polar Vortex setting up for the Northeast.

I hope y'all enjoyed this two-three week January thaw cause the Siberian Express shall resume for the East!!! Indeed, the models are trying to bring wintry precip to the Florida Peninsula by mid-month lol(let's see how that goes)...
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The SSTs for 2010 seems to be warmer this time of year than 2009. This could catalyze tropical cyclogenesis during Hurricane season, if this keeps up.



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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 23, 6:54 pm EST

Mostly Cloudy

47 °F
(8 °C)
Humidity: 86 %
Wind Speed: SE 8 MPH
Barometer: 29.68" (1005.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 43 °F (6 °C)
Wind Chill: 43 °F (6 °C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah. The Met office has called for the hottest [insert season here] for a long time now...which has almost always failed to materialize.

So bad, that I am told most in the UK expect the opposite of the Met seasonal forecast. And the BBC considering a change after such poor forecasts lately:

The Met Office risks losing its lucrative deal to provide weather forecasts to the BBC after the corporation decided to put the contract out for tender for what is believed to be the first time since 1923, it emerged today.

The decision to invite rival forecasters to bid for the contract comes during a difficult spell for the Met Office, which is under fire following a series of botched predictions. The service's long-range forecast was of an "odds-on barbecue summer", which ended up sodden. Last week it failed to anticipate heavy snowfall in the south-east that brought traffic to a standstill. While it issued a forecast in autumn proclaiming that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%, rival forecasters correctly predicted colder than normal weather. The Met Office, which is owned by the Ministry of Defence, has held the contract to provide the BBC's weather since the service began broadcasting, a BBC spokesman said.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/jan/17/bbc-weather-met-office-contract-metra

That is not correct because the annual forecast accuracy is around 0.75 or 0.85 if i remember correctly. And you mix short with long term prediction.
Well did anyone saw this negative NAO coming?
Can anyone predict how long this will last?
I guess this is a pattern of major climate shift.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Thanks guys; we're moving ahead in Haiti, but certainly not as fast as any of us would like (I'd like to have been moving things into place 10 minutes after the quake stopped). Things are speeding up though and we're making good connections on the ground and here in the States.

Part of the problem is identifying the people that need to to be served; there are still people who won't leave their homes; it's easier to get aid to people who are concentrated in one area than trying to find them one at a time. We're getting there and the people of this community have been amazing; everyone that reads the Doc's blog should take a bow because all of the regulars and even people we haven't seen in a while are showing up and offering to help...

Dr. Masters, you have done an incredible thing, putting this site together; Portlight is grateful to you and those that we have helped are grateful as well!
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Hi, everybody, just thought I'd try a tiny fundraiser for the weekend. It's kind of an experiment I just made up:

I just noticed I have a little coming to me for rewards on my Discover Card.

First person to WU-mail me that you will donate $20 to Portlight, and then later just cut & paste a copy of your receipt, or ask Portlight to WU-me, whatever works; then --

I'll forward to you a $40 e-certificate for Mrs. Fields Cookies (online or catalog orders only); OR for FTD, flowers & plants.)

The Mrs. Fields e-cert is good for 6 mos. I can cut & paste other details from the Discover wbsite.

It should be no muss; no fuss.

We have to have dinner now, and it is Sat. nite even for us OLD people, so pls. don't fret if I don't answer until later or even morning. THNX!
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Quoting Floodman:
I've updated my blog; the entry was actually written by KitchenGypsy but as she has been having connection issues today I put it up for her...

Check out the great work she's been doing for Portlight!


Many thanks and prayers to you, and all those that make charity happen.
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Quoting Floodman:
I've updated my blog; the entry was actually written by KitchenGypsy but as she has been having connection issues today I put it up for her...

Check out the great work she's been doing for Portlight!

That's great stuff!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Good evening guys
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Starting this new decade, global warming will likely accelerate due to oscillations and increased solar activity, then greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks will take over.

Yeah. The Met office has called for the hottest [insert season here] for a long time now...which has almost always failed to materialize.

So bad, that I am told most in the UK expect the opposite of the Met seasonal forecast. And the BBC considering a change after such poor forecasts lately:

The Met Office risks losing its lucrative deal to provide weather forecasts to the BBC after the corporation decided to put the contract out for tender for what is believed to be the first time since 1923, it emerged today.

The decision to invite rival forecasters to bid for the contract comes during a difficult spell for the Met Office, which is under fire following a series of botched predictions. The service's long-range forecast was of an "odds-on barbecue summer", which ended up sodden. Last week it failed to anticipate heavy snowfall in the south-east that brought traffic to a standstill. While it issued a forecast in autumn proclaiming that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%, rival forecasters correctly predicted colder than normal weather. The Met Office, which is owned by the Ministry of Defence, has held the contract to provide the BBC's weather since the service began broadcasting, a BBC spokesman said.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/jan/17/bbc-weather-met-office-contract-metra
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
I've updated my blog; the entry was actually written by KitchenGypsy but as she has been having connection issues today so I put it up for her...

Check out the great work she's been doing for Portlight!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.