Strongest winter storm in at least 140 years whallops Southwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on January 22, 2010

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The most powerful low pressure system in 140 years of record keeping swept through the Southwest U.S. yesterday, bringing deadly flooding, tornadoes, hail, hurricane force winds, and blizzard conditions. We expect to get powerful winter storms affecting the Southwest U.S. during strong El Niño events, but yesterday's storm was truly epic in its size and intensity. The storm set all-time low pressure records over roughly 10 - 15% of the U.S.--over southern Oregon, and most of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. Old records were broken by a wide margin in many locations, most notably in Los Angeles, where the old record of 29.25" set January 17, 1988, was shattered by .18" (6 mb). Bakersfield broke its record by .30" (10 mb). The record-setting low spawned an extremely intense cold front that rumbled thought the Southwest, and winds ahead of the cold front reached sustained speeds of hurricane force--74 mph--last night at Apache Junction, 40 miles east of Phoenix. Wind gusts as high as 94 mph were recorded in Ajo, Arizona, and a Personal Weather Station in Summerhaven (on top of Mt. Lemmon next to Tucson) recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 86 mph, before the power failed. Prescott recorded sustained winds at 52 mph, gusting to 67 as the cold front passed, and high winds plunged visibility to zero in blowing dust on I-10 connecting Phoenix and Tucson. The storm spawned one possible tornado in Arizona, which touched down at 8:32 pm MST in Phoenix near Desert Ridge Mall. No damage or injuries were reported. If verified, it would be only the 7th January tornado in Arizona since record keeping began in 1950.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from the Phoenix Doppler radar at the time of the Phoenix tornado. The tornado touched down under the circle with a "+" inside it. The Doppler velocity image did not show any rotation to the clouds in the vicinity.

Some of the all-time low pressure records set in yesterday's storm:
Los Angeles, CA: 29.07", Old Record: 29.25", January 17, 1988
Eureka, CA: 28.90", Old Record: 28.91", February 1891
San Diego, CA: 29.15", Old Record, 29.37", March 3, 1983
Fresno, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.10", January 27, 1916
Bakersfield, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.24", February 3, 1998

Salt Lake City, UT: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00" April 2002

Reno, NV: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00", January 27, 1916
Las Vegas, NV: 29.03" Old Record: 29.17", December 1949

Phoenix, AZ: 29.22", Old Record: 29.32", May 18, 1902
Flagstaff, AZ: 29.13", Old Record: 29.15", February 7, 1937
Yuma, AZ: 29.15", Old Record: 29.37", September 12, 1927

Three tornadoes in California
Three tornadoes were reported in California yesterday. A small EF0 twister hit the east side of Ventura, leaving a 1.5 mile damage path. Another tornado hit Santa Barbara, downing trees and power poles. The most damaging California tornado yesterday touched down just west of Blythe, on the Arizona-California border, at 4:31 pm MST. The twister crossed I-10, blowing three semi trucks over, ripping the roofs off houses, and downing power lines. I-10 was closed for several hours to clear the debris and toppled trucks.

Two tornadoes also hit Southern California on Tuesday. A sheriff's deputy spotted a possible tornado in Goleta that caused some roof damage, and another tornado hit Huntington Beach, damaging boats and buildings and flipping cars.

If all five tornadoes are confirmed as genuine by the National Weather Service, it will tie the record of most January California tornadoes. The all-time record for most California tornadoes in a single day is seven, set on April 1, 1996, and November 9, 1982.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado.

Figure 3. Storm-relative radial velocity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado. The area of yellow and orange colors, lying right next to a region of blues and greens just west of Santa Barbara shows that the winds in that region were moving towards and away from the radar in a very tight area, signifying the presence of a rotating thunderstorm and possible tornado.

The storm will continue to bring heavy rain and snow to many portions the Southwest today, then wind down on Saturday. A new storm is expected to move ashore over Northern California on Sunday night, but this storm will not be as intense. Another storm is also possible next Friday, January 29, but it appears that a renewed battering by a long succession of storms like we had this week will not occur next week.

Selected storm total snowfalls (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 3.2 NNW 36.5
SUNRISE MOUNTAIN 29.0
FOREST LAKES 26.0
HEBER 21.0
PINETOP/LAKESIDE 4 ESE 20.4
ALPINE 20.0
CLAY SPRINGS 20.0
CLINTS WELL 19.0
KACHINA VILLAGE 18.6
WILLIAMS 16.5
PRESCOTT 7.0

...CALIFORNIA...
CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 73.6
SODA SPRINGS 63.0
SUGAR BOWL 61.0
LWR RELIEF VALLEY 50.6
KIRKWOOD 48.0
SQUAW VALLEY 47.0
SIERRA AT TAHOE 38.0
BIG BEAR CITY 37.0

...COLORADO...
DURANGO 24.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9 NW 24.0
SILVERTON 24.0
WOLF CREEK PASS 1 SSE 24.0
ABAJO 19.0
TELLURIDE 15.0
COAL BANK PASS 14.5
RED MTN 12.3
CREEDE 10 SW 12.0
SOUTH FORK 4 SW 12.0
MOLAS PASS 10.0

...NEW MEXICO...
JEMEZ SPRINGS 14.0
CHAMA 12.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 10.5
AZTEC 8.0
BLUEWATER LAKE 11 WSW 8.0
BONITO LAKE 5 SW 8.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 8.0
LUNA 8.0
KIRTLAND 2 ESE 6.0
MOGOLLON 6 ESE 6.0
RAMAH 6.0
BLOOMFIELD 3 SW 5.5
LOS ALAMOS 5.5

...NEVADA...
YUCCA FLAT 20.0
BERRY CREEK 19.0
BIG CREEK SUMMIT 16.0
DRAW CREEK 13.0
POLE CREEK R.S. 13.0
MT. POTOSI 12.0
ELY 8.3
WARD MOUNTAIN 8.0
CHARLESTON 6.0

...UTAH...
BRIGHTON CREST 35.0
ALTA/COLLINS 33.5
DEER VALLEY DALY WEST 28.0
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 28.0
BIG COTTONWOOD SPRUCES 19.0
SOLITUDE 17.5
SNOWBIRD 13.5

Selected storm total precipitation (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
DAVIS-MONTHAN AFB/TUCSON 10.23
BLACK CANYON CITY 10 N 6.57
CROWN KING 6.50
SURPRISE 1 ESE 5.58
SUN CITY WEST 2 NNE 4.78
COTTONWOOD 1 WSW 4.63
SCOTTSDALE 5.5 NNW 4.21
NEW RIVER 5 ESE 4.05
WITTMAN 5 SW 4.05
PAYSON 4.01
PINE 1 SW 4.00
SIERRA VISTA 3.83
LUKE AFB/PHOENIX 3.58
CASTLE HOT SPRINGS 3.55
FLAGSTAFF PULLIAM AP 3.41
CLIFTON 2.96
WINSLOW 2.84
GILBERT 4 NW 2.74
CHANDLER 4 WNW 2.72
YUMA MCAF 2.43
PRESCOTT/ERNEST A LOVE FIELD AP 2.28
PHOENIX AIRPORT 2.21
TUCSON AIRPORT 0.52

...CALIFORNIA...
LOS GATOS 4 SW 14.70
CAZADERO 13.46
LYTLE CREEK 13.39
MINING RIDGE 13.14
PETROLIA 7 SE 12.17
BARTLETT SPRINGS 11.23
LAKE ARROWHEAD 11.23
ALTADENA 1 ESE 11.14
CLOVERDALE 1 S 10.30
CRESTLINE 10.27
DEVORE 9.58
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 8.04
UKIAH MUNI ARPT 7.58
NEWHALL 7.08
SANTA ROSA/SONOMA CO ARPT 6.55
SAN LUIS OBISPO ARPT 5.37
SAN DIEGO/MONTGOMERY FIELD 4.32
SAN FRANCISCO INTL ARPT 4.30
LOS ANGELES-USC 3.89
PALM SPRINGS RGNL ARPT 3.75
SACRAMENTO METRO ARPT 3.65
SAN JOSE INTL ARPT 3.19

...NEVADA...
NORTH LAS VEGAS AIRPORT 1.50
HENDERSON AIRPORT 1.17
MERCURY/DESERT ROCK ARPT 1.06

...OREGON...
AGNESS 6.4 NE 3.90
PORT ORFORD 5.0 E 3.52
BROOKINGS 4.2 ENE 2.83
BANDON 11.4 S 2.67
ASTORIA 1.45

...WASHINGTON...
HOQUIAM/BOWERMAN AIRPORT 2.01

Tornadoes, severe weather in the South
Severe weather associated with a separate storm brought damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes to portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida last night. Two tornadoes were reported, one in Tennessee, and one in Alabama, near Huntsville. The Huntsville tornado injured approximately six people, and cut power to 10,000 people. The storm responsible for the severe weather has moved out to sea, and no further severe weather is expected today. A slight chance of severe weather is expected Saturday over Arkansas and Mississippi, and there is also a severe weather threat for Georgia and surrounding states on Sunday.


Figure 4. Last night's Huntsville, Alabama tornado was captured by wunderphotographer Southampton.

Portlight's Paul Timmons to appear on NBC and CNN
Portlight.org, the disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, has successfully shipped medical equipment and a water filtration unit capable of supplying the needs of 3,500 people per day to the Dominican Republic. The relief supplies were trucked to Haiti via road, and have made it to the earthquake zone. The supplies have been targeted to go to those with disabilities, or to those who are living in areas where the main aid efforts have been inadequate. Portlight is working through the local Catholic Church, which is probably best positioned to deliver private aid donations to those in need. Paul Timmons, leader of the Portlight relief efforts, is scheduled to appear on NBC news later today, and on CNN news tomorrow, to discuss Portlight's efforts.


Figure 5. Walkers and medical supplies for Haiti getting ready to ship from the Portlight warehouse in Atlanta.

Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. The Reeve Foundation, founded by Christopher and Dana Reeve has awarded Portlight Strategies a $10,000 Quality of of Life grant to assist in the relief efforts in Haiti. This is very big and will allow Portlight to pursue more aggressive relief efforts over the course of the next few weeks.

For those of you more interested in helping out with the long-term rebuilding of Haiti's shattered infrastructure from the quake, I recommend a contribution to Lambi Fund of Haiti, a charity that is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level in Haiti. I've developed a great respect for the work they do in the country in the five years I've been a supporter.

Next post
My next post will be Monday.

Jeff Masters

Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California (annestahl)
Cops stand by closed road.
Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California
Southern California Snow (gemd)
A Pacific storm (usually warm) came and dropped snow in Southern California in area which rarely see snow. This was not even an "insider slider" (lingo for a northern, non-Pacific cold jet stream). Snow days for schools are rampant and there are many accidents on the roadways. Our snow is not the typical fluff, but very wet and slick.
Southern California Snow
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm (kempix)
Heavy Snowstorm came in last night with almost a foot of snow in the mountains of Prescott.
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm
Bad Luck (scphotos)
the ocean in Santa Barbara takes no prisoners
Bad Luck
Blue Thunder Bolt (LianesLightroom)
Amazing bolt of lightning strikes the Pacific Ocean in Manhattan Beach, CA.
Blue Thunder Bolt
Shrouded in Clouds (ChandlerMike)
I took a drive this morning to document some of this amazing weather we're having in Arizona. My path took me over to the Superstition Mountains east of Phoenix and I beheld some sights that I don't expect to see again. (HDR)
Shrouded in Clouds

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Quoting StormW:


Ya...caught it on SRV mode.

Morning, sunshine.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461


Region:SOLOMON ISLANDS
Geographic coordinates:9.220S, 157.757E
Magnitude: 5.6 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 24 Jan 2010 14:19:00
Time near the Epicenter:25 Jan 2010 01:19:00
Location with respect to nearby cities:
160 km (99 miles) SE (141 degrees) of Gizo, Solomon Islands
191 km (119 miles) SW (227 degrees) of Dadali, Solomon Islands
242 km (150 miles) W (276 degrees) of HONIARA, Solomon Islands
1159 km (720 miles) E (90 degrees) of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceagecoming:
593 drqodOwnCountry 12:24 AM GMT on January 24, 2010It appears Atmo has a valid point as it has been noticed by many others as well as former
employees of the MET office:
The Major shift is in the program:
Software eng. 101: Garbage in, garbage out:
Or dare I say Propaganda in, you know the rest.
A frozen Britain turns up the heat up on the MET office:

Paul Hudson 13:34 UK time, Saturday, 9 January 2010


Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. I've been interested in the weather and climate for as long as I can remember, and worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for more than ten years locally and at the international unit before joining the BBC in October 2007.


So why, at the same time that Joe Bastardi at Accuweather.com forecast a cold winter did the Met Office issue a forecast saying that this winter would be mild, with the chances of a cold winter less than 15%?

Clearly there is the rest of January and February to go, but such has been the intensity of the cold spell, which next week will run into its 4th week, then it would take something remarkable during the rest of winter for the Met Office's forecast to be right. It's also worth remembering that this comes off the back of the now infamous barbeque summer forecast, and lets not forget last winter, which the Met Office said again would be mild, but turned out to be the coldest for over 10 years.

The answer may well be quite straight forward. It's likely that the all powerful and dominant Hadley centre supercomputer predicted very little chance of a cold winter, just like it did last winter, and that, as they say, was that.

Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centre's predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this?



http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/




Thanks, ice. I hadn't seen this one.

Of course OddoNe had to defend it, because I knocked it.

And someone tell him that the short-term and long-term forecasts were both discussed in the guardian article I linked (you know, that whole "If you had bothered to look at the link" thing.)

On to long term models...what I know about forecast models, and the physics under the hood, yes, it is possible to tune a model to observations by attributing temperature trends too heavily to the wrong forcing and then have it result in a warm bias when the forcings change. The physics of which forcing causes what relative portion of a seasonal forecast temp is tenuous, at best, a SWAG, at worst. Tuning the model to match observations will work fine even if the wrong forcing has been given too much weight, until the forcings change.

Same is true for MOS if your model has a cool bias, say, for a positive NAO. They would be collecting statistics during the positive NAO and correcting the model output based on the obs. And then a negative NAO comes along and the MOS are tuned to warm the result a bit, but in actuality, the results may have been too warm to begin with for a negative NAO. (over-simplification for the sake of keeping this down to a short novel)

And this applies to more than just the NAO. It applies to all of the big forcings that change over longer periods, and their collective effect in concert.

Not saying with any certainty that this is what is going on at the Met office, but that it is possible.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Grothar:


Sie wohnen in Deutschland?

Atm, Yes.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
My weather for aprox last 7 weeks (Around -1 to -13 C)
Current Conditions Berlin-Tegel, Germany (Airport)
Haze
-10 °C
Haze
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: -16 °C
Wind: 18 km/h / from the East
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 1032 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 7.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 6300 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 37 m
Raw METAR Aviation Weather Radio
Flight Rule: MVFR ()
Wind Speed: 9.7 kts.
Wind Dir: 100° (East)
Ceiling: 6300 m


Sie wohnen in Deutschland?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tampaspin, shouldn't there be deeper activity?
I read somewhere that this banana style magma chamber is many hundred miles deep.
Rightnow it's all in around 16km and this pretty much i guess means tectonics.

So far im more worried of the overall trend in earthquake activities around the world. And this yellowstone swarm seems pretty gone?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Climate change means also more varibilities, specialy in short terms - more precipitation and shifting climate zones. Weather becomes more extreme.
And the UK has a special situation with the gulf stream, So i guess pretty hard to predict.


Agreed, a prediction is just that, hence when
comments come up as "there is no debate",therein lies the problem. Is it climate
warmer or climate colder? It was not just the UK
It was most of the northern hemisphere, excluding Greenland which was singled out, but
the rest of the record cold readings were ignored, supporting the warming bias as mentioned in the article.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,"[1] (sometimes called Santayana's Law of Repetitive Consequences).


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Ya...caught it on SRV mode.


Might not necessarily be a nado, but looks like these storms are producing rotation at some level in the atmosphere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anybody catch that TVS that just popped up on Birmingham radar?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My weather for aprox last 7 weeks (Around -1 to -13 C)
Current Conditions Berlin-Tegel, Germany (Airport)
Haze
-10 °C
Haze
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: -16 °C
Wind: 18 km/h / from the East
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 1032 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 7.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 6300 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 37 m
Raw METAR Aviation Weather Radio
Flight Rule: MVFR ()
Wind Speed: 9.7 kts.
Wind Dir: 100° (East)
Ceiling: 6300 m
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032


PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:54pm EST on Sunday the 24th of January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and
islands from Karumba to Borroloola.

At 10:00 pm EST [9:30 pm CST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 50
kilometres east northeast of Cairns and near stationary.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga has remained near stationary immediately off the Cairns
coast during the last several hours. It is expected to resume a westward track
during the next 6 to 12 hours and be located in the southeast Gulf of
Carpentaria by Tuesday morning. It may re-intensify into a Tropical Cyclone in
the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday.

Heavy rainfall and flooding is likely to develop between Cooktown and Mackay as
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga and an associated monsoon trough moves ashore early
Monday. Flood warnings and a separate Severe Weather Warning are current for
these developing conditions.

People between Karumba in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and Borroloola in the
Northern Territory should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 10:00 pm EST [9:30 pm CST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.8 degrees South 146.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Monday 25 January [4:30 am CST
Monday 25 January].
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceagecoming:

Climate change means also more varibilities, specialy in short terms - more precipitation and shifting climate zones. Weather becomes more extreme.
And the UK has a special situation with the gulf stream, So i guess pretty hard to predict.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
673. IKE
Quoting code1:
Better attach a chin strap to any hat you wear outside today Ike. Looks like we are going to rock-n-roll again today.


It appears that way.....

Birmingham, Alabama (Airport)
Updated: 29 min 28 sec ago
Light Thunderstorms and Rain
59 F
Light Thunderstorm Rain Mist
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 57 F
Wind: 29 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 44 mph
Pressure: 29.53 in (Steady)

Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 643 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
672. code1
Better attach a chin strap to any hat you wear outside today Ike. Looks like we are going to rock-n-roll again today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
670. IKE
Hail storms in Alabama....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
668. IKE



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 630 AM UNTIL 100
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE /MID 60S
DEWPOINTS/ AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. THIS MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 500
J/KG WITH CONVECTION ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. GIVEN THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS SE MS/SW AL...IT
APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...THOMPSON
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667. IKE
Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 9
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

TORNADO WATCH 9 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC033-091-113-241900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0009.100124T1230Z-100124T1900Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA

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666. IKE
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' everyone.

Ike.. I hope it stays that way..not "that" cold :)


Boy it is windy outside. Any time there is an east wind it is magnified where I live. I would say it's gusting to about 30 mph. Steady winds of 10-20 mph.

64.2 degrees outside.
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Mornin' everyone.

Ike.. I hope it stays that way..not "that" cold :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
664. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Good morning WU-Bloggers.

We can handle a little cold weather, eh Ike? Just nothing like we had a few weeks ago. PLEASE.



I don't see anything that cold...yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning WU-Bloggers.

We can handle a little cold weather, eh Ike? Just nothing like we had a few weeks ago. PLEASE.

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661. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Ike, et al.


Morning.

This may have been posted earlier, Accuweather forecasting a possible cold outbreak in the eastern USA in February...Link
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Morning Ike, et al.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
659. IKE
Next Sunday morning looks like the coldest morning of nest week. 6Z GFS at 174 hours....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
658. IKE
Fort Worth,TX. long-term discussion.....

"THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS REGARDING
THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. WHILE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH
WILL TRANSITION FROM A CLOSED LOW TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND MORE
COMPACT WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE GFS. THE DETAILS BEAR WATCHING AS
THE BOTH MODELS ALSO POINT TO A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TX IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR WHICH SHUTS
OFF ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A
STRONGER...MORE WRAPPED UP SCENARIO POINTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROWAL LIKE FEATURE WRAPPING UP BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. THIS WOULD
KEEP SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO PLACE. EVEN THE STRONGER ECMWF KEEPS THIS AREA JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT ANY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION NEAR THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF
NORTH TX LATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. BOTH
SOLUTIONS POINT TO A VERY COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO RECOVER
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...SO WHILE THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TRUE
ARCTIC OUTBREAK IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN.


CAVANAUGH"
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657. IKE
From Memphis,TN. morning discussion....

"THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
POSSIBLY WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-40...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL DATA...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
EXACT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH
LATEST MODELS FORECASTING THE AREA BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF MID/UPPER JET...THINK THERE WOULD BE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN COMPARED TO SNOW AS DEPTH OF COLD AIR MAY BE
SHALLOW.
FOR NOW...KEPT HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I-40 IN HWO. HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-40. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING FRIDAY NIGHT."

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656. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F
18:00 PM FST January 24 2010
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1003 hPa) located at 10.0S 178.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on infrared with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Deep convection persistent in the last 24 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. 05F lies under 250 hPa diffluent region along a surface trough in a moderately sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation from surface to 500 hPa.

Global models (US/UK/EC) has picked up the system and moves it slowly southeast.

Potential for 05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is LOW.
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March 2, 2006 | 4 comments

Magma On The Move Beneath Yellowstone
By David Biello
Much of Yellowstone National Park is a giant collapsed volcano, or a caldera. In an enormous eruption roughly 640,000 years ago, this volcano spit out around 240 cubic miles of rock, dirt, magma and other material. Around 70,000 years ago its last eruption filled in that gaping hole with flows of lava. The area has enjoyed an uneasy peace since then, the land alternately rising and falling with the passing decades. New satellite data indicate that this uplift and subsidence is caused by the movement of magma beneath the surface and may explain why the northern edge of the park continues to rise while the southern part of the caldera is falling.

Charles Wicks, Daniel Dzurisin and their colleagues at the U.S. Geological Survey studied radar images of the caldera captured by the European Space Agency's ERS-2 satellite during two passes over the park. Using a technique called interferometry--whereby radar measurements from two different vantage points are combined to give a measure of height--the scientists confirmed measurements on the ground that showed the land rising. But the images also revealed that a roughly 12-mile-wide circle of land centered at the northern rim of the caldera is still rising while land to its south is sinking. The source of that uplift, according to data revealed in today's Nature, lies more than seven miles underground.

Therefore, magma movement must be the cause of the rise and fall, Dzurisin explains. "It's just too deep to be caused by pressurization of the hydrothermal system," he says. "A small amount of magma has either moved up or been intruded to a depth of [seven miles] or perhaps it was already there and it's been pressurized."

Although previous studies had hinted at new magma moving beneath Yellowstone, this represents the first compelling evidence, according to Dzurisin. Such magma movement would also explain recent surface phenomena including new cracks and hot springs as well as the more frequent eruption of Steamboat Geyser. "If you do pressurize or increase the volume of a source [seven miles] deep, you put the ground in tension and that would be conducive to new fractures giving access to the surface for hot waters that previously hadn't had that access," he adds.

This new magma does not mean that Yellowstone will erupt again in the near future; much more significant signs such as more earthquakes, more focused ground deformations and the escape of volcanic gases would point to that. But it does point to continued activity at one of the world's largest volcanic systems. "We don't know if the next event will be a continuation of the series of lava flows that filled in the caldera or the beginning of a new cycle that will create a new caldera," Dzurisin says. "Eruptions are far enough apart that there is a very low probability of the next eruption happening in our lifetimes or anytime soon. The flipside is: the system has been active for millions of years and it's going to erupt again sometime."
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Satellite Technologies Detect Uplift in the Yellowstone Caldera
This image of ground deformation was created using data from several satellite passes from 1996 through 2000. The image shows 125 mm (about 5 in) of uplift centered within the northern end of Yellowstone caldera (black dotted line), about 10 km (6.2 miles) south of Norris. Each full spectrum of color (from red to purple) represents about 28 mm (1 inch) of uplift. The uplift is approximately 35 km x 40 km (22 miles x 25 miles) in size.


Not to alarm anyone.........but look where the earthquakes are occuring also....IN THE EXACT SAME AREA AS THE UPLIFT......
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WE MAY HAVE A PROBLEM COMING AT YELLOWSTONE! This is looking more like Volcanic Activity to me some now!

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TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:34pm EST on Sunday the 24th of January 2010

The Cyclone WARNING from Cooktown to Cairns has been cancelled.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and
islands from Karumba to Borroloola.

At 4:00 pm EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was located offshore from Cape
Tribulation.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga has weakened and is now part of a vigorous monsoon
trough located across the northwest Coral Sea. It is expected to move west over
southern Cape York Peninsula and be located in the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria
by Tuesday morning when it is forecast to re-intensify.

A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for this trough system for the
Queensland east coast between Cooktown and Mackay.

People between Karumba in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and Borroloola in the
Northern Territory should consider what action they will need to take if the
cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.4 degrees South 145.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Sunday 24 January.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Heavy Rainfall and Damaging Wind Gusts.
For people in the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Burdekin and
Central Coast districts between Cooktown and Mackay.
Issued at 4:10 pm on Sunday 24 January 2010

Synoptic Situation:
At 4pm EST, ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was located just off the North Tropical
Coast near Port Douglas. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Neville was located off the Herbert
and Burdekin coast.
Both systems have weakened and are now part of a vigorous monsoon trough that is
forecast to move onto the coast between Cooktown and the Whitsundays this
evening.

Heavy rainfall is expected to develop this evening and continue on Monday and
may lead to localised flash flooding.

Damaging wind gusts to 100 kph are expected in some parts of the exposed coast
between Port Douglas and the Whitsundays.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga will move steadily westwards across southern Cape York
Peninsula and enter southeast Gulf of Carperentaria waters Tuesday morning.
The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

* beware of fallen trees and powerlines
* avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.


The next warning is due to be issued by 8pm Sunday.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0642 UTC 24/01/2010
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 145.6E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [244 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A nm [N/A km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 24/1800: 16.9S 143.7E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 997
24: 25/0600: 17.0S 141.8E: 060 [110]: 025 [045]: 998
36: 25/1800: 16.9S 140.3E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 993
48: 26/0600: 17.1S 139.2E: 080 [150]: 040 [070]: 989
60: 26/1800: 17.2S 137.5E: 100 [185]: 030 [050]: 990
72: 27/0600: 17.2S 135.7E: 120 [220]: 025 [045]: 990
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga has continued to weaken during the day with increased
land interraction. A vigorous monsoon trough links Ex Tropical Cyclones Olga and
Neville and currently sits over the northwest Coral Sea.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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Quoting Floridano:
G'morning, Aussie!

Good Evening
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Quoting tornadodude:


well anyway, goodnight, i have no idea why you have a personal vendetta against me because my maps self update, That's such an atrocious act on my behalf. :P

Bandwidth and out of date info. Others do it too, in addition to providing good stuff. Not personal, you just happened by on this one when I had a different ticker running in a different world that intersects ;-) G'nite
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AWESOME, Orca!

Uh, I think you missed an earthquake and devastation in Haiti, NRAAmy & CA bloggers going glub glub glub in CA, a tornado in Huntsville, also a few around Florida...nothing much; oh wait, there's a cyclone in Australia.

I was going to bed a long time ago, but watched cable movies instead. Psycho IV just finished, but I read some posts before yours, and I think the blog had a character 'bout as whack.

Okey dokey...well I want to hear all about your trip, so please blog all about it...but now I really gotta' get some sleep, so g'morning and g'night!

Matt, if you're reading this...you're not asleep yet! Get some zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz's. You need to be fresh for the next, uh, character on the blog.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
We're Back :)
What did I miss ... the weather and fishing in Cancun was awesome..
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting transitzone:

I wouldn't know


well anyway, goodnight, i have no idea why you have a personal vendetta against me because my maps self update, That's such an atrocious act on my behalf. :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


btw, how was college in the 50's?

I wouldn't know
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Quoting transitzone:

The sources I use I know how to use. The sources you use you should know how to use. Something I learned well before my college daze


btw, how was college in the 50's?

and to quote a movie that came out in your time period, "Frankly my dear, I dont give a damn."

goodnight
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting transitzone:

The sources I use I know how to use. The sources you use you should know how to use. Something I learned well before my college daze


And I know how to use my sources. Just because they done uphold to your almighty standards doesnt mean crap. :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


so either you could be a smart*** or tell me how to fix it. Hmmm

The sources I use I know how to use. The sources you use you should know how to use. Something I learned well before my college daze
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641. BtnTx
Quoting AussieStorm:
while everyone is sleeping, I'll do a hardware clean and polish of my pc. Sweet dreams everyone.

Amazing how you are on the other side of the world and it is good to hear from you on this great blog!
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have a goodnight transitzone :)

by the way, this comment wont update to say good morning later ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


o wow.. im scared lol.. alright pimp.. have a goodnight


haha you too, later bro
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


be careful, if that self-updates, you know who will get on to you about it LOL


o wow.. im scared lol.. alright pimp.. have a goodnight
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


be careful, if that self-updates, you know who will get on to you about it LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.