Strongest winter storm in at least 140 years whallops Southwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on January 22, 2010

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The most powerful low pressure system in 140 years of record keeping swept through the Southwest U.S. yesterday, bringing deadly flooding, tornadoes, hail, hurricane force winds, and blizzard conditions. We expect to get powerful winter storms affecting the Southwest U.S. during strong El Niño events, but yesterday's storm was truly epic in its size and intensity. The storm set all-time low pressure records over roughly 10 - 15% of the U.S.--over southern Oregon, and most of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. Old records were broken by a wide margin in many locations, most notably in Los Angeles, where the old record of 29.25" set January 17, 1988, was shattered by .18" (6 mb). Bakersfield broke its record by .30" (10 mb). The record-setting low spawned an extremely intense cold front that rumbled thought the Southwest, and winds ahead of the cold front reached sustained speeds of hurricane force--74 mph--last night at Apache Junction, 40 miles east of Phoenix. Wind gusts as high as 94 mph were recorded in Ajo, Arizona, and a Personal Weather Station in Summerhaven (on top of Mt. Lemmon next to Tucson) recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 86 mph, before the power failed. Prescott recorded sustained winds at 52 mph, gusting to 67 as the cold front passed, and high winds plunged visibility to zero in blowing dust on I-10 connecting Phoenix and Tucson. The storm spawned one possible tornado in Arizona, which touched down at 8:32 pm MST in Phoenix near Desert Ridge Mall. No damage or injuries were reported. If verified, it would be only the 7th January tornado in Arizona since record keeping began in 1950.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from the Phoenix Doppler radar at the time of the Phoenix tornado. The tornado touched down under the circle with a "+" inside it. The Doppler velocity image did not show any rotation to the clouds in the vicinity.

Some of the all-time low pressure records set in yesterday's storm:
Los Angeles, CA: 29.07", Old Record: 29.25", January 17, 1988
Eureka, CA: 28.90", Old Record: 28.91", February 1891
San Diego, CA: 29.15", Old Record, 29.37", March 3, 1983
Fresno, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.10", January 27, 1916
Bakersfield, CA: 28.94", Old Record, 29.24", February 3, 1998

Salt Lake City, UT: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00" April 2002

Reno, NV: 28.94", Old Record, 29.00", January 27, 1916
Las Vegas, NV: 29.03" Old Record: 29.17", December 1949

Phoenix, AZ: 29.22", Old Record: 29.32", May 18, 1902
Flagstaff, AZ: 29.13", Old Record: 29.15", February 7, 1937
Yuma, AZ: 29.15", Old Record: 29.37", September 12, 1927

Three tornadoes in California
Three tornadoes were reported in California yesterday. A small EF0 twister hit the east side of Ventura, leaving a 1.5 mile damage path. Another tornado hit Santa Barbara, downing trees and power poles. The most damaging California tornado yesterday touched down just west of Blythe, on the Arizona-California border, at 4:31 pm MST. The twister crossed I-10, blowing three semi trucks over, ripping the roofs off houses, and downing power lines. I-10 was closed for several hours to clear the debris and toppled trucks.

Two tornadoes also hit Southern California on Tuesday. A sheriff's deputy spotted a possible tornado in Goleta that caused some roof damage, and another tornado hit Huntington Beach, damaging boats and buildings and flipping cars.

If all five tornadoes are confirmed as genuine by the National Weather Service, it will tie the record of most January California tornadoes. The all-time record for most California tornadoes in a single day is seven, set on April 1, 1996, and November 9, 1982.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado.

Figure 3. Storm-relative radial velocity from the Los Angeles Doppler radar at the time of the Santa Barbara tornado. The area of yellow and orange colors, lying right next to a region of blues and greens just west of Santa Barbara shows that the winds in that region were moving towards and away from the radar in a very tight area, signifying the presence of a rotating thunderstorm and possible tornado.

The storm will continue to bring heavy rain and snow to many portions the Southwest today, then wind down on Saturday. A new storm is expected to move ashore over Northern California on Sunday night, but this storm will not be as intense. Another storm is also possible next Friday, January 29, but it appears that a renewed battering by a long succession of storms like we had this week will not occur next week.

Selected storm total snowfalls (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 3.2 NNW 36.5
SUNRISE MOUNTAIN 29.0
FOREST LAKES 26.0
HEBER 21.0
PINETOP/LAKESIDE 4 ESE 20.4
ALPINE 20.0
CLAY SPRINGS 20.0
CLINTS WELL 19.0
KACHINA VILLAGE 18.6
WILLIAMS 16.5
PRESCOTT 7.0

...CALIFORNIA...
CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 73.6
SODA SPRINGS 63.0
SUGAR BOWL 61.0
LWR RELIEF VALLEY 50.6
KIRKWOOD 48.0
SQUAW VALLEY 47.0
SIERRA AT TAHOE 38.0
BIG BEAR CITY 37.0

...COLORADO...
DURANGO 24.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9 NW 24.0
SILVERTON 24.0
WOLF CREEK PASS 1 SSE 24.0
ABAJO 19.0
TELLURIDE 15.0
COAL BANK PASS 14.5
RED MTN 12.3
CREEDE 10 SW 12.0
SOUTH FORK 4 SW 12.0
MOLAS PASS 10.0

...NEW MEXICO...
JEMEZ SPRINGS 14.0
CHAMA 12.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 10.5
AZTEC 8.0
BLUEWATER LAKE 11 WSW 8.0
BONITO LAKE 5 SW 8.0
FARMINGTON 7 NE 8.0
LUNA 8.0
KIRTLAND 2 ESE 6.0
MOGOLLON 6 ESE 6.0
RAMAH 6.0
BLOOMFIELD 3 SW 5.5
LOS ALAMOS 5.5

...NEVADA...
YUCCA FLAT 20.0
BERRY CREEK 19.0
BIG CREEK SUMMIT 16.0
DRAW CREEK 13.0
POLE CREEK R.S. 13.0
MT. POTOSI 12.0
ELY 8.3
WARD MOUNTAIN 8.0
CHARLESTON 6.0

...UTAH...
BRIGHTON CREST 35.0
ALTA/COLLINS 33.5
DEER VALLEY DALY WEST 28.0
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 28.0
BIG COTTONWOOD SPRUCES 19.0
SOLITUDE 17.5
SNOWBIRD 13.5

Selected storm total precipitation (in inches) from 7 am Sunday January 17, through 7 am PST Friday January 22:
...ARIZONA...
DAVIS-MONTHAN AFB/TUCSON 10.23
BLACK CANYON CITY 10 N 6.57
CROWN KING 6.50
SURPRISE 1 ESE 5.58
SUN CITY WEST 2 NNE 4.78
COTTONWOOD 1 WSW 4.63
SCOTTSDALE 5.5 NNW 4.21
NEW RIVER 5 ESE 4.05
WITTMAN 5 SW 4.05
PAYSON 4.01
PINE 1 SW 4.00
SIERRA VISTA 3.83
LUKE AFB/PHOENIX 3.58
CASTLE HOT SPRINGS 3.55
FLAGSTAFF PULLIAM AP 3.41
CLIFTON 2.96
WINSLOW 2.84
GILBERT 4 NW 2.74
CHANDLER 4 WNW 2.72
YUMA MCAF 2.43
PRESCOTT/ERNEST A LOVE FIELD AP 2.28
PHOENIX AIRPORT 2.21
TUCSON AIRPORT 0.52

...CALIFORNIA...
LOS GATOS 4 SW 14.70
CAZADERO 13.46
LYTLE CREEK 13.39
MINING RIDGE 13.14
PETROLIA 7 SE 12.17
BARTLETT SPRINGS 11.23
LAKE ARROWHEAD 11.23
ALTADENA 1 ESE 11.14
CLOVERDALE 1 S 10.30
CRESTLINE 10.27
DEVORE 9.58
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 8.04
UKIAH MUNI ARPT 7.58
NEWHALL 7.08
SANTA ROSA/SONOMA CO ARPT 6.55
SAN LUIS OBISPO ARPT 5.37
SAN DIEGO/MONTGOMERY FIELD 4.32
SAN FRANCISCO INTL ARPT 4.30
LOS ANGELES-USC 3.89
PALM SPRINGS RGNL ARPT 3.75
SACRAMENTO METRO ARPT 3.65
SAN JOSE INTL ARPT 3.19

...NEVADA...
NORTH LAS VEGAS AIRPORT 1.50
HENDERSON AIRPORT 1.17
MERCURY/DESERT ROCK ARPT 1.06

...OREGON...
AGNESS 6.4 NE 3.90
PORT ORFORD 5.0 E 3.52
BROOKINGS 4.2 ENE 2.83
BANDON 11.4 S 2.67
ASTORIA 1.45

...WASHINGTON...
HOQUIAM/BOWERMAN AIRPORT 2.01

Tornadoes, severe weather in the South
Severe weather associated with a separate storm brought damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes to portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida last night. Two tornadoes were reported, one in Tennessee, and one in Alabama, near Huntsville. The Huntsville tornado injured approximately six people, and cut power to 10,000 people. The storm responsible for the severe weather has moved out to sea, and no further severe weather is expected today. A slight chance of severe weather is expected Saturday over Arkansas and Mississippi, and there is also a severe weather threat for Georgia and surrounding states on Sunday.


Figure 4. Last night's Huntsville, Alabama tornado was captured by wunderphotographer Southampton.

Portlight's Paul Timmons to appear on NBC and CNN
Portlight.org, the disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, has successfully shipped medical equipment and a water filtration unit capable of supplying the needs of 3,500 people per day to the Dominican Republic. The relief supplies were trucked to Haiti via road, and have made it to the earthquake zone. The supplies have been targeted to go to those with disabilities, or to those who are living in areas where the main aid efforts have been inadequate. Portlight is working through the local Catholic Church, which is probably best positioned to deliver private aid donations to those in need. Paul Timmons, leader of the Portlight relief efforts, is scheduled to appear on NBC news later today, and on CNN news tomorrow, to discuss Portlight's efforts.


Figure 5. Walkers and medical supplies for Haiti getting ready to ship from the Portlight warehouse in Atlanta.

Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. The Reeve Foundation, founded by Christopher and Dana Reeve has awarded Portlight Strategies a $10,000 Quality of of Life grant to assist in the relief efforts in Haiti. This is very big and will allow Portlight to pursue more aggressive relief efforts over the course of the next few weeks.

For those of you more interested in helping out with the long-term rebuilding of Haiti's shattered infrastructure from the quake, I recommend a contribution to Lambi Fund of Haiti, a charity that is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level in Haiti. I've developed a great respect for the work they do in the country in the five years I've been a supporter.

Next post
My next post will be Monday.

Jeff Masters

Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California (annestahl)
Cops stand by closed road.
Road disappears in flood in San Luis Obispo, California
Southern California Snow (gemd)
A Pacific storm (usually warm) came and dropped snow in Southern California in area which rarely see snow. This was not even an "insider slider" (lingo for a northern, non-Pacific cold jet stream). Snow days for schools are rampant and there are many accidents on the roadways. Our snow is not the typical fluff, but very wet and slick.
Southern California Snow
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm (kempix)
Heavy Snowstorm came in last night with almost a foot of snow in the mountains of Prescott.
Prescott 2010 Snowstorm
Bad Luck (scphotos)
the ocean in Santa Barbara takes no prisoners
Bad Luck
Blue Thunder Bolt (LianesLightroom)
Amazing bolt of lightning strikes the Pacific Ocean in Manhattan Beach, CA.
Blue Thunder Bolt
Shrouded in Clouds (ChandlerMike)
I took a drive this morning to document some of this amazing weather we're having in Arizona. My path took me over to the Superstition Mountains east of Phoenix and I beheld some sights that I don't expect to see again. (HDR)
Shrouded in Clouds

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481, CO2 levels have not remained at 280 ppm for the past 15 million years, it fluctuated. And I am pretty sure CO2 levels will not make up 8% of the atmosphere.
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Quoting Patrap:
As seen by the blue point farthest to the right on this graph, 2009 was the warmest year on record in the Southern Hemisphere. Image credit: NASA

2009 Australia had it's 2nd hottest year on record
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting Patrap:


I dont believe no one intended to say the atmosphere is going to become toxic to Humans.
That isnt a sensible deduction,.it may be a good skewed re-tort for some maybe,..

But the Co2 increase is the driver of the warming,no debate there..and all the latest Modeling suggest its going to warm at a faster rate which will affect the Globe in a increasingly detrimental fashion..and the Humans scurrying about it.

And once again,..if one denies the pollutants cause and effect,where do all the toxicity go when pumped into the atmosphere 24/7/365..?

Sarasota?

Canada
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
473, if you're trying to say that CO2 is warming the planet is one thing, but trying to say that CO2 levels will rise to amounts that will cause human health effects is crazy. And thinking that atmoaggie knows nothing about science is absurd. Maybe you should check someone's background before attacking them.
Maybe you should start to learn the diffrence in attacking someone and claims of the sceptic industrie - pointing it out.
Video Out of Balance
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
CO2 levels in the atmosphere wont ever get up to 8%..... Not going to happen. And even by current IPCC projections their levels in the atmosphere will not harm human health according to the statistics just given.
Don't be so sure about this. See earth history and catastropihc climate changes (PETM).
Now if we talk about co-2 concentrations in the atmosphere, there Co2 acts as a potent greenhouse gas. As 380ppm seem not much in regards to direct health concern, the greenhouse effect will trigger more warming from positive feedbacks, stronger storms, climate out of balance. The last 15 million years we had around 280ppm. and since the industrial revolution the fossil energy stored beneath the earth gets released into the atmosphere - fueling the energy of the climate system.
This is in fact the biggest experiment of humankind - all the planet life forms related. Than there is the speed of the emission released into the atmosphere, which is the fastest in earth history.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Some may also need to read up on the matter as their assumptions dont have a darn thing thing to do with the science behind the warming.

Ones thought process,or "belief" dosent drive the conclusions or the science process involved in the findings,..the data does.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
CO2 levels in the atmosphere wont ever get up to 8%..... Not going to happen. And even by current IPCC projections their levels in the atmosphere will not harm human health according to the statistics just given.


I dont believe no one intended to say the atmosphere is going to become toxic to Humans.
That isnt a sensible deduction,.it may be a good skewed re-tort for some maybe,..

But the Co2 increase is the driver of the warming,no debate there..and all the latest Modeling suggest its going to warm at a faster rate which will affect the Globe in a increasingly detrimental fashion..and the Humans scurrying about it.

And once again,..if one denies the pollutants cause and effect,where do all the toxicity go when pumped into the atmosphere 24/7/365..?

Sarasota?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
473, if you're trying to say that CO2 is warming the planet is one thing, but trying to say that CO2 levels will rise to amounts that will cause human health effects is crazy. And thinking that atmoaggie knows nothing about science is absurd. Maybe you should check someone's background before attacking them.
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Quoting Patrap:

.."Just do your best,in everything you do"...
Great song!
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Here's the problem I have with considering C02 a pollutant. I'll agree that in higher concentrations it is toxic. But the amount our atmosphere contains is harmless. That's why it's considered a trace gas. It's not the nature of the gas that is the problem. It's the concentration. If you take 100% pure oxygen and breath it in for an extended period of time your lungs begin to fill with fluid and damage begins occurring to lung tissue. You could consider it toxic, but we don't go classifying it as a pollutant.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
Important 6 am CDT Sunday Forecast Map for the Saints Tailgaters tomorrow.

Smooth Sailing thru out the day,,..


Get Krunk Who Dats,for the Promised land is nye...

Farve on da turf,looking like a Smurf..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
CO2 levels in the atmosphere wont ever get up to 8%..... Not going to happen. And even by current IPCC projections their levels in the atmosphere will not harm human health according to the statistics just given.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
You stated that Co2 is not toxic, i just showed you that you are wrong.

Due to the health risks associated with carbon dioxide exposure, the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration says that average exposure for healthy adults during an eight-hour work day should not exceed 5,000 ppm (0.5%). The maximum safe level for infants, children, the elderly and individuals with cardio-pulmonary health issues is significantly less. For short-term (under ten minutes) exposure, the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) and American Conference of Government Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) limit is 30,000 ppm (3%). NIOSH also states that carbon dioxide concentrations exceeding 4% are immediately dangerous to life and health[46] although physiological experiments show that such levels can be tolerated for some time [47].

Adaptation to increased levels of CO2 occurs in humans. Continuous inhalation of CO2 can be tolerated at three percent inspired concentrations for at least one month and four percent inspired concentrations for over a week. It was suggested that 2.0 percent inspired concentrations could be used for closed air spaces (e.g. a submarine) since the adaptation is physiological and reversible. Decrement in performance or in normal physical activity does not happen at this level.[47][48] However, it should be noted that submarines have carbon dioxide scrubbers which reduce a significant amount of the CO2 present.[49]

These figures are valid for pure carbon dioxide. In indoor spaces occupied by people the carbon dioxide concentration will reach higher levels than in pure outdoor air. Concentrations higher than 1,000 ppm will cause discomfort in more than 20% of occupants, and the discomfort will increase with increasing CO2 concentration. The discomfort will be caused by various gases coming from human respiration and perspiration, and not by CO2 itself. At 2,000 ppm the majority of occupants will feel a significant degree of discomfort, and many will develop nausea and headaches. The CO2 concentration between 300 and 2,500 ppm is used as an indicator of indoor air quality.

Acute carbon dioxide toxicity is sometimes known by the names given to it by miners: blackdamp (also called choke damp or stythe). Backdamp is primarily nitrogen and carbon dioxide and kills via suffocation (having displaced oxygen). Miners would try to alert themselves to dangerous levels of blackdamp and other gasses in a mine shaft by bringing a caged canary with them as they worked. The canary is more sensitive to environmental gasses than humans and as it became unconscious would stop singing and fall off its perch. The Davey lamp could also detect high levels of blackdamp (which collect near the floor) by burning less brightly, while methane, another suffocating gas and explosion risk would make the lamp burn more brightly).

Carbon dioxide ppm levels (CDPL) are a surrogate for measuring indoor pollutants that may cause occupants to grow drowsy, get headaches, or function at lower activity levels. To eliminate most indoor air quality complaints, total indoor CDPL must be reduced to below 600. NIOSH considers that indoor air concentrations that exceed 1,000 are a marker suggesting inadequate ventilation. ASHRAE recommends they not exceed 1,000 inside a space.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide#Toxicity
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664

.."Just do your best,in everything you do"...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

There are thousands of accidents in the USA annualy dueto wrong handling of generators or in garages. Due to the toxity of Co-2. I advice you not to test this out. Co-2 kills pretty fast if you lack air supply. And the EPA has filled Co-2 as a pollution.
Oh and btw your "claim" here again is absolutly not scientific.

LOL!

And he posts something with CO2 at up to 8%!

Yet, CO is the one that actually gets into your blood and takes the place of O2 and is the one that kills...I see he might have learned something new. But, my post is still unsubstantiated and charlottefl doesn't know what he is talking about.

CO2 in the concentrations found in the atmosphere is not a danger to human health and will never be according to the scariest projections.

Someone let me know when this guy is old enough to understand something besides the fear-media and the wiki-warming-section and I'll take him off the *poof* list.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

There are thousands of accidents in the USA annualy dueto wrong handling of generators or in garages. Due to the toxity of Co-2. I advice you not to test this out. Co-2 kills pretty fast if you lack air supply. And the EPA has filled Co-2 as a pollution.
Oh and btw your "claim" here again is absolutly not scientific.



Our atmosphere is unique in the solar system. At sea level it has a pressure of about 1 x 105 pascals (Pa). The total mass is 5.3 x 1018 km which is about 1 millionth of the total mass of the planet (5.97 x 1024 kg). The atmospheric structure is stratified by gravity and characterized by the complex photochemical interactions between sunlight and the various molecular species present.

Typical composition of dry air at sea level:

Species Percent by Volume

N2 78.08

O2 20.95

Ar 0.93

CO2 0.031

Ne 0.0018

He 0.00052

Kr 0.00011

Xe 0.0000087

H2 0.00005

CH4 0.0002

NO 0.00005

O3 0.000007 (summer)

0.000002 (winter)

Note that only nitrogen, oxygen and argon are present in any appreciable amounts. Water vapor varies from nearly zero up to about 4% (100% humidity at 120°F, 1 atm) and averages about 0.8%.

Composition of the atmosphere varies little from this with altitude except ozone, water vapor, and carbon dioxide. Water vapor is almost totally absent above about 8 km


(a CO level of 400 ppm and higher) will result in unconsciousness


- Carbon Dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere have risen from 0.028% to 0.038% (380ppm) over the past 100 years (IPCC)
- Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is not toxic until 5% (50,000ppm) concentration (Source)


CO2 is hazardous via direct toxicity at levels above 5%, concentrations not encountered in nature outside of volcanic settings and water-logged soils


http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001AGUSM...H31C13H

So the scientific answer is the CO kills from the generator kills you 137 times faster.(Irreversible CO poisoning versus reversible CO2
poisoning)
Science and philosphy both thrive from logic and
wisdom: The Warmists should learn from the past:

It cannot be when the root is neglected that what springs from it will be well ordered.

CONFUCIUS, The Wisdom of Confucius







Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1056
Quoting Patrap:
ROFL ;)
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
466. code1
WU blogger StormKen has written a nice article highlighting Portlight relief efforts in the Sun Sentinel. Kudos and thanks Ken!
Portlight helps..
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Co2 is easily toxic,and thus the required C02 scrubbers for Spacecraft,Submarines and submersibles..

Without CO2 removal via this method,..one would perish within Hours aboard any of these Human transport vehicles.

It one dosent realize that,well..then they need not expound on anything else via the scientific method here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664

The map shows temperature changes for the last decade—January 2000 to December 2009—relative to the 1951-1980 mean. Warmer areas are in red, cooler areas in blue. The largest temperature increases occurred in the Arctic and a portion of Antarctica. Credit: NASA




2009: Second Warmest Year on Record; End of Warmest Decade



2009 was tied for the second warmest year in the modern record, a new NASA analysis of global surface temperature shows. The analysis, conducted by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, also shows that in the Southern Hemisphere, 2009 was the warmest year since modern records began in 1880.

Although 2008 was the coolest year of the decade -- due to strong cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean -- 2009 saw a return to near-record global temperatures. The past year was only a fraction of a degree cooler than 2005, the warmest year on record, and tied with a cluster of other years -- 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007 -- as the second warmest year since recordkeeping began.

“There’s always an interest in the annual temperature numbers and on a given year’s ranking, but usually that misses the point,” said James Hansen, the director of GISS. “There's substantial year-to-year variability of global temperature caused by the tropical El Niño-La Niña cycle. But when we average temperature over five or ten years to minimize that variability, we find that global warming is continuing unabated."

January 2000 to December 2009 was the warmest decade on record. Throughout the last three decades, the GISS surface temperature record shows an upward trend of about 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. Since 1880, the year that modern scientific instrumentation became available to monitor temperatures precisely, a clear warming trend is present, though there was a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s.


The near-record temperatures of 2009 occurred despite an unseasonably cool December in much of North America. High air pressures in the Arctic decreased the east-west flow of the jet stream, while also increasing its tendency to blow from north to south and draw cold air southward from the Arctic. This resulted in an unusual effect that caused frigid air from the Arctic to rush into North America and warmer mid-latitude air to shift toward the north.

"Of course, the contiguous 48 states cover only 1.5 percent of the world area, so the U.S. temperature does not affect the global temperature much,' said Hansen.

In total, average global temperatures have increased by about 0.8°C (1.4°F) since 1880.

“That’s the important number to keep in mind,” said Gavin Schmidt, another GISS climatologist. “In contrast, the difference between, say, the second and sixth warmest years is trivial since the known uncertainty -- or noise -- in the temperature measurement is larger than some of the differences between the warmest years."

Decoding the Temperature Record

Climate scientists agree that rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap incoming heat near the surface of the Earth and are the key factors causing the rise in temperatures since 1880, but these gases are not the only factors that can impact global temperatures.

Three others key factors -- including changes in the sun’s irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperature in the tropics, and changes in aerosol levels -- can also cause slight increases or decreases in the planet's temperature. Overall, the evidence suggests that these effects are not enough to account for the global warming observed since 1880.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting gordydunnot:
Its a semi super Sunday coming up. Is New Orleans a little nervous. Or is this a piece of cake. One I wish I had.
New Orleans is a little nervous, but confident and full of cake..."King Cake" that is...

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Quoting charlottefl:


The deaths in the use of generators are due to Carbon Monoxide (CO). It is structurally different than Carbon Dioxide (C02) in the fact that it forms when there is not enough oxygen in the air to produce Carbon Dioxide. It is far more lethal than (C02), due to the fact that it latches on to hemoglobin in the blood (much more efficiently 250X to be exact more than oxygen) and denies the transport of oxygen to body tissues.

How does carbon--dioxide from generator kills?
The main problem is that if you are inhaling carbon dioxide instead of normal air, then you are obviously breathing reduced oxygen or no even no oxygen at all. Any gas can kill by this means, simply because you're breathing it instead of getting oxygen. A second problem is that carbon dioxide becomes an acid when it dissolves in water. Blood is mostly water, so breathing carbon dioxide will make your blood acidic and that can disrupt your body chemistry.

I don't know what kind of engine you're talking about, but normal generator emissions are made up of mostly Nitrogenous gas (N2), Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Water Vapor (H20). Engines are also made to reduce the emissions of: CO, VCOs, and Nitrogen Oxides. Therefore, it depends on your own engine emissions rates but generally, cases of CO2 poisoning is very rare and is often caused in conjunction with other gases. Here's an example: CO2 is usually at 380 part per million (ppm) in the air you and I breath in. But at 1% or 10,000 ppm (26 times the normal concentration) you would feel drowsy and according to British Medical Journals it takes about 10-25% CO2 (100,000-250,000 ppm, roughly 260 - 650 times normal amounts of CO2 concentrations in the air) to kill. Now, Carbon Monoxide (CO) only takes 35 ppm (0.0035%) to cause headache and dizziness after long periods of exposure (~8 hours). Exposure at 3,200 ppm can cause death within 30 minutes and at ~13,000 ppm causes death in 2-3 breaths and in less than 3 minutes. So to summarize - Carbon dioxide CAN kill, but you'll most likely get killed due to Carbon monoxide poisioning many times over already, and kills in roughly the same way as CO2.
link
Nevertheless Co-2 is still toxic.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Cyclone Olga is expected to enter the Gulf of Carpentaria, and I predict that it will peak as a category three in that area. Also, I expect it to briefly emerge west of Australia. This is a relatively small-core storm, so it can strengthen rapidly.

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835

Carbon dioxide content in fresh air (averaged between sea-level and 10 hPa level, i.e. about 30 km altitude) varies between 0.036% (360 ppm) and 0.039% (390 ppm), depending on the location[43].

Prolonged exposure to moderate[clarification needed] concentrations can cause acidosis and adverse effects on calcium phosphorus metabolism resulting in increased calcium deposits in soft tissue. Carbon dioxide is toxic to the heart and causes diminished contractile force.[42]

Toxicity and its effects increase with the concentration of CO2, here given in volume percent of CO2 in the air:

* 1%, as can occur in a crowded auditorium with poor ventilation, can cause drowsiness with prolonged exposure.[2]
* At 2% it is mildly narcotic and causes increased blood pressure and pulse rate, and causes reduced hearing.[42]
* At about 5% it causes stimulation of the respiratory centre, dizziness, confusion and difficulty in breathing accompanied by headache and shortness of breath.[42]. In addition at this concentration panic attacks may occur.[44][45]
* At about 8% it causes headache, sweating, dim vision, tremor and loss of consciousness after exposure for between five and ten minutes.[42]

A natural disaster linked to CO2 intoxication occurred during the limnic eruptions in the CO2-rich lakes of Monoun and Nyos in the Okun range of North-West Cameroon: the gas was brutally expelled from the mountain lakes and leaked into the surrounding valleys, killing most animal forms. During the Lake Nyos tragedy of 1988, 1700 villagers and 3500 livestock died.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide#Toxicity
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Its a semi super Sunday coming up. Is New Orleans a little nervous. Or is this a piece of cake. One I wish I had.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
458. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
And good Morning wubaland.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
A single minded thought for a individual does nothing as to the cause and effect proven thru the scientific method,peer-reviewed and well...Like I always said,the warming continues without any ones opine affecting the solution of the consensus.

In other words..the facts presented could care less what One Individual or a Body of Political thought believes.

Thats how science works.

Some spout off as if their the inquisition..
and the science is Da Vinci.

The agreed scientific position is and remains the facts.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

There are thousands of accidents in the USA annualy dueto wrong handling of generators or in garages. Due to the toxity of Co-2. I advice you not to test this out. Co-2 kills pretty fast if you lack air supply. And the EPA has filled Co-2 as a pollution.
Oh and btw your "claim" here again is absolutly not scientific.


The deaths in the use of generators are due to Carbon Monoxide (CO). It is structurally different than Carbon Dioxide (C02) in the fact that it forms when there is not enough oxygen in the air to produce Carbon Dioxide. It is far more lethal than (C02), due to the fact that it latches on to hemoglobin in the blood (250X more efficiently than oxygen) and denies the transport of oxygen to body tissues.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
454. IKE
Should have made the C storm Clyde....follows Bonnie.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season names.
* Alex
* Bonnie
* Colin (Replaced Charley '04)
* Danielle
* Earl
* Fiona (Replaced Frances '04)
* Gaston
* Hermine
* Igor (Replaced Ivan '04)
* Julia (Replaced Jeanne '04)
* Karl
* Lisa
* Matthew
* Nicole
* Otto
* Paula
* Richard
* Shary
* Tomas
* Virginie
* Walter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
452. IKE
No matter what anyone feels about global warming, with everything that's going on in Haiti now...plus the US war in Afghanistan...Iraq....

I would say global warming will be put on the back burner the rest of 2010. Maybe when the fall election rolls around you'll hear more about it.

Or maybe I'm just wishing it would crawl under a rock for awhile.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:59pm EST on Saturday the 23rd of January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island areas from Cape Melville
to Cardwell.

The Cyclone WATCH from Coen to Cape Melville and Cardwell to Lucinda has been
CANCELLED.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 2 was estimated to be
250 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 365 kilometres north northeast of
Townsville, and was moving west at 21 kilometres per hour.

GALES are expected to develop about the coast between Cape Melville and Cardwell
on Sunday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are likely to develop about the coast between Cape Tribulation
and Innisfail on Sunday afternoon as the cyclone centre approaches.

Very heavy rainfall with localised flooding is expected to develop about the
North Tropical Coast during Sunday.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, abnormally high tides are expected between
Cape Tribulation and Innisfail, but the sea level should not exceed the highest
tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

People between Cape Melville and Cardwell should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 148.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 21 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 983 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Sunday 24 January.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting atmoaggie:
That and possibly question the legality of and/or how appropriate is EPA regulation of such a non-toxic gas. I don't think anyone's intent was for the EPA to regulate gases that have no ill health effects.


There are thousands of accidents in the USA annualy dueto wrong handling of generators or in garages. Due to the toxity of Co-2. I advice you not to test this out. Co-2 kills pretty fast if you lack air supply. And the EPA has filled Co-2 as a pollution.
Oh and btw your "claim" here again is absolutly not scientific.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting atmoaggie:
442: Maybe they have doubts about CO2 being the cause of our not-so-scary sea level rise to date and that of the future.

That and possibly question the legality of and/or how appropriate is EPA regulation of such a non-toxic gas. I don't think anyone's intent was for the EPA to regulate gases that have no ill health effects.

(My personal opinion is that we could be doing so much more for the environment and pollution control if we weren't so tunnel-visioned on this CO2 thing. Get behind something with a clear relationship of cause and effect and I'll be all for it.)


Exactly.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
442: Maybe they have doubts about CO2 being the cause of our not-so-scary sea level rise to date and that of the future.

That and possibly question the legality of and/or how appropriate is EPA regulation of such a non-toxic gas. I don't think anyone's intent was for the EPA to regulate gases that have no ill health effects.

(My personal opinion is that we could be doing so much more for the environment and pollution control if we weren't so tunnel-visioned on this CO2 thing. Get behind something with a clear relationship of cause and effect and I'll be all for it.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
In response to 445 uncited rant.
The IPCC is not infallible (shock!)
Like all human endeavours, the IPCC is not perfect. Despite the enormous efforts devoted to producing its reports with the multiple levels of peer review, some errors will sneak through. Most of these will be minor and inconsequential, but sometimes they might be more substantive. As many people are aware (and as John Nieslen-Gammon outlined in a post last month and Rick Piltz goes over today), there is a statement in the second volume of the IPCC (WG2), concerning the rate at which Himalayan glaciers are receding that is not correct and not properly referenced.

The statement, in a chapter on climate impacts in Asia, was that the likelihood of the Himalayan glaciers %u201Cdisappearing by the year 2035%u2033 was %u201Cvery high%u201D if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate (WG 2, Ch. 10, p493), and was referenced to a World Wildlife Fund 2005 report. Examining the drafts and comments (available here), indicates that the statement was barely commented in the reviews, and that the WWF (2005) reference seems to have been a last minute addition (it does not appear in the First- or Second- Order Drafts). This claim did not make it into the summary for policy makers, nor the overall synthesis report, and so cannot be described as a %u2018central claim%u2019 of the IPCC. However, the statement has had some press attention since the report particularly in the Indian press, at least according to Google News, even though it was not familiar to us before last month.

It is therefore obvious that this error should be corrected (via some kind of corrigendum to the WG2 report perhaps), but it is important to realise that this doesn%u2019t mean that Himalayan glaciers are doing just fine. They aren%u2019t, and there may be serious consequences for water resources as the retreat continues. See also this review paper (Ren et al, 2006) on a subset of these glaciers.

East Rongbuk glacier just below Mt. Everest has lost 3-400 ft of ice in this area since 1921.

More generally, peer-review works to make the IPCC reports credible because many different eyes with different perspectives and knowledge look over the same text. This tends to make the resulting product reflect more than just the opinion of a single author. In this case, it appears that not enough people with relevant experience saw this text, or if they saw it, did not comment publicly. This might be related to the fact that this text was in the Working Group 2 report on impacts, which does not get the same amount of attention from the physical science community than does the higher profile WG 1 report (which is what people associated with RC generally look at). In WG1, the statements about continued glacier retreat are much more general and the rules on citation of non-peer reviewed literature was much more closely adhered to. However, in general, the science of climate impacts is less clear than the physical basis for climate change, and the literature is thinner, so there is necessarily more ambiguity in WG 2 statements.

In future reports (and the organisation for AR5 in 2013 is now underway), extra efforts will be needed to make sure that the links between WG1 and the other two reports are stronger, and that the physical science community should be encouraged to be more active in the other groups.

In summary, the measure of an organisation is not determined by the mere existence of errors, but in how it deals with them when they crop up. The current discussion about Himalayan glaciers is therefore a good opportunity for the IPCC to further improve their procedures and think more about what the IPCC should be doing in the times between the main reports.

Update: This backgrounder presented by Karkel et al AGU this December is the best summary of the current state of the Himalayas and the various sources of misinformation that are floating around. It covers this issue, the Raina report and the recent Lau et al paper.
realclimate
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting P451:
Louisiana is one big river delta. It's flooding wouldn't a travesty of "global warming" it would simply show how stupid humanity is when it comes to settlements.

You build on a river bank, a flood plain, or the coast I don't want to hear any crying when your house gets flooded. You should expect it to happen.

It will not stop at 1 m. Even with 1 m. there are i think 100 of millions of people effected. Ofc stupid people why they live there in the first place. And it is not flooding p451 IT IS SEA LEVEL RISE.


This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed from 1993 to 2008 and how quickly these changes have occurred.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting AussieStorm:

Looks like what the road leading to hell would look like.

Indeed.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting Skyepony:
I think Emanuel questioned it because a few models didn't fair well recreating recent events, though there was also some compelling evidence. Closer..& I had seen that interview, not the rest of the publishing. & as usual sidetracked looking.. Remember the big tado when EPA was given the power to curb some polluting?

After hottest decade in history, senators attempt to outlaw science of global warming.

NYT: Warmest decade, Senators bar EPAs scientists announce that the 2000s were the hottest decade in recorded history, U.S. senators are working to outlaw the reality of global warming. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration reported yesterday that 2009 is %u201Ctied with a cluster of other years %u2014 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007 %u2014 as the second warmest year since recordkeeping began,%u201D after 2005, the hottest year in history. Meanwhile, thirty-nine senators introduced a resolution to reverse the finding that global warming pollution is a threat to public health and welfare:

Ms. [Lisa] Murkowski (R-AK), joined by 35 Republicans and three conservative Democrats, proposed to use the Congressional Review Act to strip the agency of the power to limit emissions of greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. The Supreme Court gave the agency legal authority to regulate such emissions in a landmark 2007 ruling.

After years of suppression and interference by the George W. Bush White House, the Environmental Protection Agency finally found last month that %u201Cgreenhouse gases taken in combination endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations.%u201D The Democrats co-sponsoring Senate Joint Resolution 26 to overturn the endangerment finding are Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Ben Nelson (D-NE), and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR).

This is so sick.

The state that stands to suffer the most from human-caused global warming has elected leaders who want to stop efforts to avoid its inundation (see “Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6 feet by 2100“). That’s true of the Governor and presidential hopeful (see “Jindal Tries to Block Climate Change Regulation“). It’s true of GOP Sen. Vitter who tried to block climate change response centers. We’ve known for a while that Sen. Landrieu wants to jettison cap-and-trade. Now we know she is joining Sen. Lisa Dirty Air Murkowski (R-AK) in her campaign to prevent Clean Air Act regulation of global warming pollution , as Brad Johnson reports in this Wonk Room excerpt:

Yesterday, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has announced that she is the Murky Dem supporting the lobbyist-directed effort to prevent action by President Obama to slow global warming. Because she “believes the Clean Air Act is not meant to be applied to carbon dioxide emissions,” Landrieu is collaborating to craft what environmentalists are calling the Dirty Air Act:

“I am considering that right now,” Landrieu said when asked whether she backed Murkowski’s plan. “I have been working with her on it.”
Full Article
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
The sea fog, or should I say Gulf of Mexico fog continues.

Photobucket
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
Quoting tornadodude:
Good early morning all


Morning everyone. Morning bro, that's if your still awake. LOL. I think that time stamp was from like 3:45AM. That's if I did my GMT time translation right.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
Quoting AussieStorm:

Humidity started off at about 10% most of today, Currently 73%. Once the cold change came through the humidity rapidly rose. The temp is now half what it was at 15:30 EDT 21C(69.8F) Today's max temp was 42.5C(108.1F).

Homebush Observations
Saturday January 23, 2010
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
sup from Indiana tornadodude
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Far north QLD issued cyclone warning

* From: AAP
* January 23, 2010 7:10PM

RESIDENTS in far north Queensland have been warned they risk being left short of critical supplies unless they start preparing for tropical cyclone Olga.

People have been advised to check their emergency kits as the category one cyclone - which sat about 370km east of Cairns at 4pm (AEST) on Saturday - intensifies and moves towards the coast.

A cyclone watch was current from Coen to Cape Flattery and Innisfail to Lucinda on late Saturday afternoon.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) had issued flood warnings for the coastal areas between Cooktown and Cardwell.

Gale force winds and heavy rainfall were expected to develop along the coast between Cape Flattery and Innisfail on Sunday afternoon.

Warren Bridson, of Emergency Management Queensland, said residents needed to take the warnings seriously and adequately prepare for the cyclone, which formed on Friday night in the Coral Sea.

"We have found that in previous events - like last year's Ingham floods - people had two days' warning but still didn't stock up on critical supplies such as medication, food and water and baby supplies,'' Mr Bridson said.

"They didn't appreciate how isolated they would become, even though they lived in or close to town.

"We need people to understand that when you are isolated by a flood, you may not be able to get to the shops for a number of days.''

Mr Bridson also warned of the dangers of swollen creeks and flooded drains and roads.

Every year emergency services received dozens of calls for assistance from people who had ignored road closures and become stranded in flood waters, he said.

"This is extremely dangerous behaviour,'' Mr Bridson said.

"Only last year two lives were tragically lost when a vehicle was driven into flood waters and washed away near Tully.

"Please obey all traffic signs and road closures and do not attempt to cross flooded roads, even if this means having to stay at home.''

If Olga continues on its current path it could hit the coast off Cairns on Monday morning, a BoM chart predicts.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932




TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:48pm EST on Saturday the 23rd of January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Flattery to
Innisfail.

A Cyclone WATCH has is now current for coastal areas from Coen to Cape Flattery
and Innisfail to Lucinda.

At 7:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 1 was estimated to be
335 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 400 kilometres north northeast of
Townsville moving west at 18 kilometres per hour while intensifying.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA, CATEGORY 1, is currently over the northwest Coral Sea and
is moving towards the coast while intensifying.

Gale force winds and heavy rainfall are expected to develop about the coast
between Cape Flattery and Innisfail on Sunday afternoon.
People between Cape Flattery and Innisfail should take precautions and listen
to the next Advice at 11pm Saturday. If you are unsure about precautions to be
taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.

People between Coen to Cape Flattery and Innisfail to Lucinda should consider
what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are
unsure about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 148.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Saturday 23 January.

________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0655 UTC 23/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Olga
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 149.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 23/1800: 15.9S 147.0E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 980
+24: 24/0600: 16.1S 145.8E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 983
+36: 24/1800: 16.6S 143.8E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 996
+48: 25/0600: 17.2S 142.0E: 120 [220]: 025 [045]: 998
+60: 25/1800: 17.1S 140.6E: 140 [260]: 025 [045]: 997
+72: 26/0600: 17.2S 139.6E: 160 [295]: 025 [045]: 997
REMARKS:
T3.0 chiefly based on MET. Convection has persisted through the day and the low
level circulation is now under this deep convection. Shear is expected to
decrease over the next 36 hours as the system moves west.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.