A wild weather night in Arizona

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:08 AM GMT on January 22, 2010

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The most powerful low pressure system in Arizona history is generating havoc in the state tonight, as a powerful cold front sweeps through. Prescott last hour recorded sustained winds at 52 mph, gusting to 67 as the cold front passed. Visibility was zero in blowing dust on I-10 connecting Phoenix and Tucson, and a cooperative observer in Apache Junction between Phoenix and Tucson reported sustained winds of hurricane force, 74 mph. A tornado touched down just west of Blythe, on the Arizona California border, at 4:31 pm MST. The twister crossed I-10, blowing three semi trucks over, blowing the roofs off houses, and downing power lines. I-10 has been closed until further notice, according to media reports.


Figure 1. Radar image of Arizona's nastiest cold front in recorded history approaching Phoenix.

This past hour, Phoenix obliterated their all-time record low pressure, set in 1902. The old record was 29.32", and they are now at 29.22", with the pressure still falling. Flagstaff has also beaten their all-time low pressure record, which was 29.15", set in 1937. The pressure has fallen to 29.13" so far. Yuma also set a new record, 29.15", compared to the old record of 29.37". At 4:41 PM today, Las Vegas set a new record of 29.03 inches. This crushed the all-time record low sea level pressure of 29.17 inches set in December 1949. Fresno, Bakersfield, Eureka, and San Diego have also set new all-time low pressure records today.

Links to follow tonight:

Severe Weather Page.
Interactive Tornado Map.
Arizona Current Conditions.

I'll have a full update on Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Gurgle (photoandy)
The water was rising fast! This driver abandoned the car very quickly.
Gurgle
Huntsville Tornado (Southampton)
Huntsville Tornado

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227. drg0dOwnCountry
4:43 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:

Our highest nado counts come in what ENSO conditions? La Nina. Exactly the same polarity of ENSO most any AGW fan claims there will be fewer of (and more El Ninos) just as there was in the last positive phase of the PDO.

And you would like to say more nadoes.

So you want to claim more nadoes and more El Ninos...2 things that actually are in direct opposition to each other.

Additionally, yes, the observational, survey, and reporting systems have matured extensively, even in just the last 20 years.
So next year califronia nadoes than will be just due to better observational and reporting systems - ah ok ideed. Why bother reducing Co-2 emissions than after all. Everything which happens is due to the fact of enhanced systems. Btw those systems are in place because science is doing a heck of a job. As long as it doesn't force people to rethink their individual lifestyle. In a not far away future civilization will stop to function, due to the ignorance to stop fueling the global climate system with greenhouse emissions. I guess it needs more record breaking on a daily basis for some people to understand that it might be wise to listen to people who do those work for a living. Btw. the topic was "How storms can trigger earthquakes".
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
226. fireflymom
4:31 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
From the Yellowstone Insider publication-
"The consensus in the scientific community: the swarm of earthquakes is caused by tectonic shifts, not anything to do with the Yellowstone caldera. These same shifts are causing more severe earthquakes in areas like Haiti and Oklahoma. Other monitoring stations indicate no change at all in activity with the caldera and the Yellowstone supervolcano."
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
225. RTLSNK
4:28 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
NEW BLOG HAS BEEN POSTED GUYS.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22189
224. AwakeInMaryland
4:27 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
ALREADY...A NEW BLOG!!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
223. atmoaggie
4:26 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Maybe you want to read the article again than.
Including both studies. The discussion ends here for me with you. Have a nice day.

I read it. Says, "It is a guess", and those with the most to lose (monetarily), the reinsurance industry, says there is no such thing as earthquake weather.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
222. jeffs713
4:21 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting P451:
Incredible...


I'm thankful that is far enough off the coast to not have a huge impact. If that was a few hundred miles closer, it would be a particularly nasty nor'easter.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
221. atmoaggie
4:20 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
It always comes down to, no it's natural for some people. Ofc the california tornadoes in the past went all without notice. Your assumption is flawed.

Our highest nado counts come in what ENSO conditions? La Nina. Exactly the same polarity of ENSO most any AGW fan claims there will be fewer of (and more El Ninos) just as there was in the last positive phase of the PDO.

And you would like to say more nadoes.

So you want to claim more nadoes and more El Ninos...2 things that actually are in direct opposition to each other.

Additionally, yes, the observational, survey, and reporting systems have matured extensively, even in just the last 20 years.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
220. rlk
4:18 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
That PHX radar shot reminds me of the late fall fine squall lines we get in the northeast -- very narrow and embedded in a larger area of moderate precip. Usually lots of PW, lots of dynamic forcing from a very powerful storm, not much instability. Very impressive for that part of the country.
Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
219. drg0dOwnCountry
4:17 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting P451:


I'm certainly not an authority on anything but I think the theory you present is the flawed one here. What do you want me to do. Agree with you just to agree with you? Can't do that. I don't think what you presented is sound science.



Maybe you want to read the article again than.
Including both studies. The discussion ends here for me with you. Have a nice day.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
218. HurricaneHunterGal
4:17 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting P451:


Better monitoring.

Same with Tornado totals being recorded. Hurricanes as well.

Well, anything for that matter.

A better network of monitoring.


That is exactly right.
There are several people that claim tornados, hurricanes and earthquakes are increasing in frequency. In reality, there is just mroe technology to detect all of these natural disasters.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
217. hurricane23
4:16 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Pretty excited on the EURO upgrade 16km.Some of the tweaks are as follows...

1-Improvements in the 850mb temperature pattern.

2-Improvements in the location and intensity of synoptic features (highs and lows, etc)

3-Improved forecasts for tropical cyclone track and intensity.

For more visit HERE.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
216. AwakeInMaryland
4:16 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
3am and still 30C(86F)
I can't sleep.

Body Cooling & Warming Products




Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
215. AussieStorm
4:15 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Goodnight all, going to go try and get some sleep. Temp is rising and its 3:15am, 30.5C
86.9°F.
Stay safe and warm everyone.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
213. StormChaser81
4:14 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Eye - Eye Captain

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
212. fireflymom
4:13 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
3am and still 30C(86F)
I can't sleep.

Do you have a fan to use?
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
210. AussieStorm
4:06 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
3am and still 30C(86F)
I can't sleep.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
208. jeffs713
4:05 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting Patrap:

USNS Comfort Crew Settles into Busy Reality

By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service
The patients come in all shapes, sizes and ages. A baby was born on the Comfort today. Both mother and daughter are doing well.

In another bay, Charlene, who is five, hugs a teddy bear she received when she got to the ship. She has a bandage on her left foot, but medics are concerned about her sight. Navy Dr. (Capt.) Terence McGee places eye drops in to dilate her pupils. She is a brave young lady as the doctor looks in her eyes. When he finishes the examination, she begins to cry so he picks her up. He asks if she has an escort – her mom or dad – and is told no.

“Five years old and alone,” he says, and continues to rock her back and forth.

THAT is what this relief effort is about. That is the image that the world should see about this whole effort. It isn't about crumbled buildings, or totaled palaces. It is about the people. The children. The people whom have done no wrong, yet mother nature has chosen to inflict this terror upon their lives. Those are the people we, as a world community, are working to help. Those are the people that Portlight is working to help.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
206. StormChaser81
4:00 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Than explain the expotential uptake of earthquake activities in recent years.


It's not a expotential uptake of earthquakes. If you look back into history you will see times were lot's of earth quakes happened and times of no activity. Were in a time of more activity. Plates and faults are always moving and causing stress. History tells us that a really bad quake happened in Haiti 200 years ago, but it was so long ago no body is alive that went through it, so it becomes a story or historical event.

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
205. drg0dOwnCountry
4:00 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting P451:


Better monitoring.

Same with Tornado totals being recorded. Hurricanes as well.

Well, anything for that matter.

A better network of monitoring.
It always comes down to, no it's natural for some people. Ofc the california tornadoes in the past went all without notice. Your assumption is flawed.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
204. fireflymom
3:59 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting presslord:
151. presslord 10:43 AM EST on January 22, 2010
I will be doing an interview with NBC News later today...plan on telling them that I won't host the Tonight show for half what they're paying Conan not to host it...
Action: Quote | Modify Comment

I nominate the Quote of the day award for Presslord
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
203. AwakeInMaryland
3:58 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Rain: How to spot an oncoming landslide
January 22nd, 2010, 4:00 am
posted by KELLI HART, THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

All of Orange County has been hit hard with rain this week, but some areas could feel the impact of it more than others.

It’s no secret that hilly Laguna Beach is subject to landslides, but do you know how to recognize the signs of an oncoming landslide before it happens?

Here are FEMA’s tips on how to anticipate an oncoming landslide and what to do after one happens: lblandslide

Signs of an oncoming landslide:

* Changes occur in your landscape such as patterns of storm-water drainage on slopes (especially the places where runoff water converges) land movement, small slides, flows, or progressively leaning trees.
* Doors or windows stick or jam for the first time.
* New cracks appear in plaster, tile, brick, or foundations.
* Outside walls, walks, or stairs begin pulling away from the building.
* Slowly developing, widening cracks appear on the ground or on paved areas such as streets or driveways.
* Underground utility lines break.
* Bulging ground appears at the base of a slope.
* Water breaks through the ground surface in new locations.
* Fences, retaining walls, utility poles, or trees tilt or move.
* A faint rumbling sound that increases in volume is noticeable as the landslide nears.
* The ground slopes downward in one direction and may begin shifting in that direction under your feet.
* Unusual sounds, such as trees cracking or boulders knocking together, might indicate moving debris.
* Collapsed pavement, mud, fallen rocks, and other indications of possible debris flow can be seen when driving (embankments along roadsides are particularly susceptible to landslides).

How to recover from a landslide:

* Stay away from the slide area. There may be danger of additional slides.
* Check for injured and trapped persons near the slide, without entering the direct slide area. Direct rescuers to their locations.
* Watch for associated dangers such as broken electrical, water, gas, and sewage lines and damaged roadways and railways.
* Replant damaged ground as soon as possible since erosion caused by loss of ground cover can lead to flash flooding and additional landslides in the near future.
* Seek advice from a geotechnical expert for evaluating landslide hazards or designing corrective techniques to reduce landslide risk.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
202. presslord
3:58 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
NBC network news...no idea when...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
201. jeffs713
3:57 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting P451:


Yep.

Thing is I don't believe anyone really knows where the initially unzipping of the caldera will occur.

We always chase the areas of greatest uplift and highest concentration of earthquakes because that's the logical thing to do.

We simply don't know much about how or when this system will erupt and even then how much it will do so.

Yellowstone has had minor eruptions in the past. So we just don't know what we're looking at.

One thing to remember is we're just in a recent age of technology and sometimes this technology makes situations look far worse than they are because we have no prior record to compare them to.

Exactly. The lake tilting is a good indicator, but the center of the lift may be away from the lake itself, and the lake could be on the side of the uplift. Also, look at the calderas on the last 3 major eruptions in Yellowstone... they overlap, but rarely use the same border. IMO, I think this is swarm due to magmatic movement, and will taper off in a bit after becoming more shallow. At the same time, I think that several geysers and hot springs will change their schedule, temp, or chemical composition in the coming weeks... and some new ones may form, or old ones may grow dormant. It will be interesting to watch, though.


As for the pair of shallow quakes, they are of large enough magnitude that I seriously doubt they are reflections of anything. After all, to be reflections, they have to be reflecting *something*. The timing is off, as is the magnitude. I think the lower quakes may be unsettling rocks and such further up, which is *not* a good trend to start. They may also be hydrothermal in origin, rather than magmatic.
(until we see quakes consistently hit in the 5-6km range, I wouldn'be too concerned)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
198. drg0dOwnCountry
3:54 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting P451:

Than explain the expotential uptake of earthquake activities in recent years. And there is clearly a connection. You can take almost every hurricane on landfall and check earthquake reports going on simultaniously.

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
196. CaneWarning
3:51 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting presslord:
151. presslord 10:43 AM EST on January 22, 2010
I will be doing an interview with NBC News later today...plan on telling them that I won't host the Tonight show for half what they're paying Conan not to host it...
Action: Quote | Modify Comment


Really? Local news or national?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
194. Patrap
3:50 PM GMT on January 22, 2010

USNS Comfort Crew Settles into Busy Reality

By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti, Jan. 21, 2010 – The USNS Comfort lived up to its name today as the medics and crew of the hospital ship continued to provide medical aid to the residents of this devastated land.


In short, it was a very busy day as the medics tended to some of the most challenging cases caused by the magnitude 7 earthquake that struck Jan. 12. By mid-afternoon today, more than 160 Haitian patients were admitted to the floating hospital.

Surgeries were performed almost around the clock. There were nine yesterday -- the first day -- with the last finished at 4:30 this morning. The operating room personnel began work again two hours later.

The intensive care units and wards were beginning to fill to capacity of 1,000 beds. “We have never had that number on the ship, but we can do it,” Navy Dr. (Capt.) Jim Ware, the medical group commander, said.

More medical professionals are arriving, and all are highly motivated. “We had critical care nurses show up today, and after they signed in, they put their scrubs on and went to work,” said Command Master Chief Chip Collins, the Comfort’s top enlisted sailor. “They said, ‘I can put my stuff away later. Where do you need me?’”

And the help is needed. On the main deck, litter bearers bring patients to the casualty receiving area after they are unloaded from helicopters on the flight deck. The elevator door opens and litter bearers come onto the red deck of the receiving area.

“Six,” says Navy Lt. Cmdr. Dan D’Aurora, who “owns” the area. D’Aurora is a nurse and a force of nature. All of the medical personnel in CASREC have their names and ranks printed on surgical tape on their shirts or scrubs. D’Aurora’s shirt has another across the back with the word, “Bulldog.”

The litter bearers bring the litter to Bay 6 where they are met by doctors, nurses and corpsmen who transfer the patient from the litter to the bed. “Get the bed the same height,” says a nurse as corpsmen crank the bed up to transfer the patient. “On three. One, two, three – lift!”

Some patients have breathing tubes and a corpsman presses a bladder to ensure air gets in the patient’s lungs. Other corpsmen and nurses hook the patient to monitors.

The doctor looks at the patient and any records. All check over the patient to ensure some injury hasn’t been overlooked. If X-rays are ordered, a technician brings a portable machine over and the lifting – or turning -- process begins again.

Treatment takes many forms. One doctor performed a spinal tap on a young Haitian boy. Another read an X-ray and sent the patient immediately to the operating room. Still another looked to see that the broken leg was set correctly, then sent the patient directly to one of the wards.

Sailors who serve as translators are an integral part of the team. Most were born in Haiti and emigrated to the United States with their families. They are the conduit that doctors and nurses use to communicate with the Haitian patients.

“They have been nothing short of fantastic,” D’Aurora said. “When we were here last year for [Exercise] Continuing Promise, we did half the patients because we couldn’t communicate. We learned.”

While there are some cries of pain, the patients are pretty stoic. “Again, it helps there’s someone there who speaks their language,” D’Aurora said.

There are a number of bays in CASREC, and several times today, they were all filled. The process works quickly and smoothly and is getting smoother as the medics gain experience.

“This isn’t ‘ER,’” said Navy Dr. (Cmdr.) Tim Donahue, the chief of surgery. “People work quietly and quickly. This is real life. Not TV.”

The medics sometimes move quickly. “Running man!” yells one corpsman as a nurse comes into CASREC at a full sprint with needed equipment.

The patients come in all shapes, sizes and ages. A baby was born on the Comfort today. Both mother and daughter are doing well.

In another bay, Charlene, who is five, hugs a teddy bear she received when she got to the ship. She has a bandage on her left foot, but medics are concerned about her sight. Navy Dr. (Capt.) Terence McGee places eye drops in to dilate her pupils. She is a brave young lady as the doctor looks in her eyes. When he finishes the examination, she begins to cry so he picks her up. He asks if she has an escort – her mom or dad – and is told no.

“Five years old and alone,” he says, and continues to rock her back and forth.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
193. AussieStorm
3:49 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
192. presslord
3:48 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
151. presslord 10:43 AM EST on January 22, 2010
I will be doing an interview with NBC News later today...plan on telling them that I won't host the Tonight show for half what they're paying Conan not to host it...
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
190. AussieStorm
3:47 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Pics taken looking south at the storm that spawned the tornado in N Brevard Co. I took these from 528 w & I95.









Nice pics.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
189. FLWeatherFreak91
3:45 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Pics taken looking south at the storm that spawned the tornado in N Brevard Co. I took these from 528 w & I95.







Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
187. drg0dOwnCountry
3:41 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting StormChaser81:

And


How Storms Can Trigger Earthquakes
Edit: uhm images don't show up i tried to compare the west coast earthquake grafic with stormchaser'S post of the US GOES.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
186. CosmicEvents
3:40 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Is this lil' line of storms above Lake Okeechobee supposed to make it down to the Broward/Dade County area?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5689
185. StormChaser81
3:39 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting CaneWarning:
Is it possible that the Haiti earthquake and the Yellowstone event are linked?


I doubt that considering how far apart the faults and plates are from each other.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
184. AussieStorm
3:37 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Cyclone Magda leaves trail of damage in Kuri Bay

ABC image
Tropical cyclone Magda will bring 130 kph winds to Kuri Bay this morning - ABC

The State Emergency Service says there are reports of damage to boats and buildings as a result of Cyclone Magda but no injuries.

The category two system is crossing the mainland for a second time.

It crossed over the Kuri Bay pearling settlement early this morning.

Magda is currently 140 kilometres north-east of Derby, moving south at 13 kilometres an hour.

SES District Manager Gordon Tiddums says the pearl farm's 20 staff are all accounted for.

"I believe Kuri Bay did experience some structural damage to what extent I'm not quite sure," he said.

"But all personnel are ok at Kuri Bay, they're talking about a couple of boats tipped over."

Cyclone Magda is expected to weaken further as it continues inland and pass by Derby as a category one system.

- ABC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
183. AstroHurricane001
3:37 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Dr. Masters, you have mail.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2836
182. CaneWarning
3:36 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Is it possible that the Haiti earthquake and the Yellowstone event are linked?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
181. StormChaser81
3:35 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Just watch yellow stone lake for evaporation and tilting to one side. It's been tilting to one side for awhile now. If it starts tilting to one side very rapidly watch out. There's a huge magma chamber under neath the lake and when the lake tilts that means the magma chamber is filling up and starting to push outwards.

These earthquakes are probably linked to magma or larva movement under the ground. The different depths for the earthquakes can be attributed to different depths in the magma chambers.

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
179. FLWeatherFreak91
3:33 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting Skyepony:
The rain put me back to sleep a while..

Storm reports coming in. Looks like a possible tornado in Veira with damage to the Brevard County School Board building. Looks like it may have exited at Patrick Air Force Base.
I was on I95 N when it crossed. The traffic was at a standstill obviously, and a semi SB on I95 about 20 ft away from me tipped on it's side. I took some pics when I exited the storm that I will post soon.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
178. AussieStorm
3:32 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Hello from the oven called Sydney,
Currently
83.8°F rising and it's 2:30am.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
177. CaneWarning
3:31 PM GMT on January 22, 2010
Quoting P451:


Well it's definitely not going to go unnoticed. There are a number of 3-4 magnitudes in there. Link

We know there is uplift and we know these tremors are related to that. So it's always a concern.

How much? Do any of us know? I don't think we do.

This could simply pan out as the 2009 swarm did. Although I don't recall so many high 3's with that event.

Before we get worried we'd need to see a quake in the 5-6 range.

Yet, again, this isn't an average volcano. We don't know what the warning signs are and whether or not it just suddenly pops or if it gives us weeks of 4s and 5s hinting at it's future activity.

It's going to go off someday again. We all know that. We all also know it's due to erupt.

If it happens it happens. We're hardly in control here.

The worry is if it does go off, well, you can kiss modern society goodbye as we know it. :/



I'd say it'll happen around the end of 2012.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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