Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A wild weather night in Arizona
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:08 AM GMT on January 22, 2010 +1
The most powerful low pressure system in Arizona history is generating havoc in the state tonight, as a powerful cold front sweeps through. Prescott last hour recorded sustained winds at 52 mph, gusting to 67 as the cold front passed. Visibility was zero in blowing dust on I-10 connecting Phoenix and Tucson, and a cooperative observer in Apache Junction between Phoenix and Tucson reported sustained winds of hurricane force, 74 mph. A tornado touched down just west of Blythe, on the Arizona California border, at 4:31 pm MST. The twister crossed I-10, blowing three semi trucks over, blowing the roofs off houses, and downing power lines. I-10 has been closed until further notice, according to media reports.


Figure 1. Radar image of Arizona's nastiest cold front in recorded history approaching Phoenix.

This past hour, Phoenix obliterated their all-time record low pressure, set in 1902. The old record was 29.32", and they are now at 29.22", with the pressure still falling. Flagstaff has also beaten their all-time low pressure record, which was 29.15", set in 1937. The pressure has fallen to 29.13" so far. Yuma also set a new record, 29.15", compared to the old record of 29.37". At 4:41 PM today, Las Vegas set a new record of 29.03 inches. This crushed the all-time record low sea level pressure of 29.17 inches set in December 1949. Fresno, Bakersfield, Eureka, and San Diego have also set new all-time low pressure records today.

Links to follow tonight:

Severe Weather Page.
Interactive Tornado Map.
Arizona Current Conditions.

I'll have a full update on Friday morning.

Jeff Masters
Gurgle (photoandy)
The water was rising fast! This driver abandoned the car very quickly.
Gurgle
Huntsville Tornado (Southampton)
Huntsville Tornado
Categories: Winter Weather
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201. jeffs713 3:57 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting P451:


Yep.

Thing is I don't believe anyone really knows where the initially unzipping of the caldera will occur.

We always chase the areas of greatest uplift and highest concentration of earthquakes because that's the logical thing to do.

We simply don't know much about how or when this system will erupt and even then how much it will do so.

Yellowstone has had minor eruptions in the past. So we just don't know what we're looking at.

One thing to remember is we're just in a recent age of technology and sometimes this technology makes situations look far worse than they are because we have no prior record to compare them to.

Exactly. The lake tilting is a good indicator, but the center of the lift may be away from the lake itself, and the lake could be on the side of the uplift. Also, look at the calderas on the last 3 major eruptions in Yellowstone... they overlap, but rarely use the same border. IMO, I think this is swarm due to magmatic movement, and will taper off in a bit after becoming more shallow. At the same time, I think that several geysers and hot springs will change their schedule, temp, or chemical composition in the coming weeks... and some new ones may form, or old ones may grow dormant. It will be interesting to watch, though.


As for the pair of shallow quakes, they are of large enough magnitude that I seriously doubt they are reflections of anything. After all, to be reflections, they have to be reflecting *something*. The timing is off, as is the magnitude. I think the lower quakes may be unsettling rocks and such further up, which is *not* a good trend to start. They may also be hydrothermal in origin, rather than magmatic.
(until we see quakes consistently hit in the 5-6km range, I wouldn'be too concerned)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722
202. presslord 3:58 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
NBC network news...no idea when...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377
203. AwakeInMaryland 3:58 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Rain: How to spot an oncoming landslide
January 22nd, 2010, 4:00 am
posted by KELLI HART, THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

All of Orange County has been hit hard with rain this week, but some areas could feel the impact of it more than others.

It’s no secret that hilly Laguna Beach is subject to landslides, but do you know how to recognize the signs of an oncoming landslide before it happens?

Here are FEMA’s tips on how to anticipate an oncoming landslide and what to do after one happens: lblandslide

Signs of an oncoming landslide:

* Changes occur in your landscape such as patterns of storm-water drainage on slopes (especially the places where runoff water converges) land movement, small slides, flows, or progressively leaning trees.
* Doors or windows stick or jam for the first time.
* New cracks appear in plaster, tile, brick, or foundations.
* Outside walls, walks, or stairs begin pulling away from the building.
* Slowly developing, widening cracks appear on the ground or on paved areas such as streets or driveways.
* Underground utility lines break.
* Bulging ground appears at the base of a slope.
* Water breaks through the ground surface in new locations.
* Fences, retaining walls, utility poles, or trees tilt or move.
* A faint rumbling sound that increases in volume is noticeable as the landslide nears.
* The ground slopes downward in one direction and may begin shifting in that direction under your feet.
* Unusual sounds, such as trees cracking or boulders knocking together, might indicate moving debris.
* Collapsed pavement, mud, fallen rocks, and other indications of possible debris flow can be seen when driving (embankments along roadsides are particularly susceptible to landslides).

How to recover from a landslide:

* Stay away from the slide area. There may be danger of additional slides.
* Check for injured and trapped persons near the slide, without entering the direct slide area. Direct rescuers to their locations.
* Watch for associated dangers such as broken electrical, water, gas, and sewage lines and damaged roadways and railways.
* Replant damaged ground as soon as possible since erosion caused by loss of ground cover can lead to flash flooding and additional landslides in the near future.
* Seek advice from a geotechnical expert for evaluating landslide hazards or designing corrective techniques to reduce landslide risk.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
204. fireflymom 3:59 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting presslord:
151. presslord 10:43 AM EST on January 22, 2010
I will be doing an interview with NBC News later today...plan on telling them that I won't host the Tonight show for half what they're paying Conan not to host it...
Action: Quote | Modify Comment

I nominate the Quote of the day award for Presslord
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 505
205. drg0dOwnCountry 4:00 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting P451:


Better monitoring.

Same with Tornado totals being recorded. Hurricanes as well.

Well, anything for that matter.

A better network of monitoring.
It always comes down to, no it's natural for some people. Ofc the california tornadoes in the past went all without notice. Your assumption is flawed.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1940
206. StormChaser81 4:00 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Than explain the expotential uptake of earthquake activities in recent years.


It's not a expotential uptake of earthquakes. If you look back into history you will see times were lot's of earth quakes happened and times of no activity. Were in a time of more activity. Plates and faults are always moving and causing stress. History tells us that a really bad quake happened in Haiti 200 years ago, but it was so long ago no body is alive that went through it, so it becomes a story or historical event.

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
208. jeffs713 4:05 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:

USNS Comfort Crew Settles into Busy Reality

By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service
The patients come in all shapes, sizes and ages. A baby was born on the Comfort today. Both mother and daughter are doing well.

In another bay, Charlene, who is five, hugs a teddy bear she received when she got to the ship. She has a bandage on her left foot, but medics are concerned about her sight. Navy Dr. (Capt.) Terence McGee places eye drops in to dilate her pupils. She is a brave young lady as the doctor looks in her eyes. When he finishes the examination, she begins to cry so he picks her up. He asks if she has an escort – her mom or dad – and is told no.

“Five years old and alone,” he says, and continues to rock her back and forth.

THAT is what this relief effort is about. That is the image that the world should see about this whole effort. It isn't about crumbled buildings, or totaled palaces. It is about the people. The children. The people whom have done no wrong, yet mother nature has chosen to inflict this terror upon their lives. Those are the people we, as a world community, are working to help. Those are the people that Portlight is working to help.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722
210. AussieStorm 4:06 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
3am and still 30C(86F)
I can't sleep.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13329
212. fireflymom 4:13 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting AussieStorm:
3am and still 30C(86F)
I can't sleep.

Do you have a fan to use?
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 505
213. StormChaser81 4:14 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Eye - Eye Captain

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
215. AussieStorm 4:15 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Goodnight all, going to go try and get some sleep. Temp is rising and its 3:15am, 30.5C
86.9°F.
Stay safe and warm everyone.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13329
216. AwakeInMaryland 4:16 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting AussieStorm:
3am and still 30C(86F)
I can't sleep.

Body Cooling & Warming Products




Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
217. hurricane23 4:16 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Pretty excited on the EURO upgrade 16km.Some of the tweaks are as follows...

1-Improvements in the 850mb temperature pattern.

2-Improvements in the location and intensity of synoptic features (highs and lows, etc)

3-Improved forecasts for tropical cyclone track and intensity.

For more visit HERE.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
218. HurricaneHunterGal 4:17 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting P451:


Better monitoring.

Same with Tornado totals being recorded. Hurricanes as well.

Well, anything for that matter.

A better network of monitoring.


That is exactly right.
There are several people that claim tornados, hurricanes and earthquakes are increasing in frequency. In reality, there is just mroe technology to detect all of these natural disasters.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
219. drg0dOwnCountry 4:17 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting P451:


I'm certainly not an authority on anything but I think the theory you present is the flawed one here. What do you want me to do. Agree with you just to agree with you? Can't do that. I don't think what you presented is sound science.



Maybe you want to read the article again than.
Including both studies. The discussion ends here for me with you. Have a nice day.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1940
220. rlk 4:18 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
That PHX radar shot reminds me of the late fall fine squall lines we get in the northeast -- very narrow and embedded in a larger area of moderate precip. Usually lots of PW, lots of dynamic forcing from a very powerful storm, not much instability. Very impressive for that part of the country.
Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
221. atmoaggie 4:20 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
It always comes down to, no it's natural for some people. Ofc the california tornadoes in the past went all without notice. Your assumption is flawed.

Our highest nado counts come in what ENSO conditions? La Nina. Exactly the same polarity of ENSO most any AGW fan claims there will be fewer of (and more El Ninos) just as there was in the last positive phase of the PDO.

And you would like to say more nadoes.

So you want to claim more nadoes and more El Ninos...2 things that actually are in direct opposition to each other.

Additionally, yes, the observational, survey, and reporting systems have matured extensively, even in just the last 20 years.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
222. jeffs713 4:21 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting P451:
Incredible...


I'm thankful that is far enough off the coast to not have a huge impact. If that was a few hundred miles closer, it would be a particularly nasty nor'easter.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722
223. atmoaggie 4:26 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Maybe you want to read the article again than.
Including both studies. The discussion ends here for me with you. Have a nice day.

I read it. Says, "It is a guess", and those with the most to lose (monetarily), the reinsurance industry, says there is no such thing as earthquake weather.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
224. AwakeInMaryland 4:27 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
ALREADY...A NEW BLOG!!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
225. RTLSNK (Mod) 4:28 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
NEW BLOG HAS BEEN POSTED GUYS.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15191
226. fireflymom 4:31 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
From the Yellowstone Insider publication-
"The consensus in the scientific community: the swarm of earthquakes is caused by tectonic shifts, not anything to do with the Yellowstone caldera. These same shifts are causing more severe earthquakes in areas like Haiti and Oklahoma. Other monitoring stations indicate no change at all in activity with the caldera and the Yellowstone supervolcano."
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 505
227. drg0dOwnCountry 4:43 PM GMT on January 22, 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:

Our highest nado counts come in what ENSO conditions? La Nina. Exactly the same polarity of ENSO most any AGW fan claims there will be fewer of (and more El Ninos) just as there was in the last positive phase of the PDO.

And you would like to say more nadoes.

So you want to claim more nadoes and more El Ninos...2 things that actually are in direct opposition to each other.

Additionally, yes, the observational, survey, and reporting systems have matured extensively, even in just the last 20 years.
So next year califronia nadoes than will be just due to better observational and reporting systems - ah ok ideed. Why bother reducing Co-2 emissions than after all. Everything which happens is due to the fact of enhanced systems. Btw those systems are in place because science is doing a heck of a job. As long as it doesn't force people to rethink their individual lifestyle. In a not far away future civilization will stop to function, due to the ignorance to stop fueling the global climate system with greenhouse emissions. I guess it needs more record breaking on a daily basis for some people to understand that it might be wise to listen to people who do those work for a living. Btw. the topic was "How storms can trigger earthquakes".
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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