Cold wave of 2010 wanes; major jet stream pattern change coming
The worst of the cold wave of 2010 is over for the Southern U.S. Temperatures this morning across the southern tier of states rebounded substantially from the lows observed Saturday through Monday, and the citrus growing region of Florida did not receive sustained periods of temperatures below 28°--the critical threshold for fruit damage. Only one record low for the day has been reported so far this morning by the National Weather Service, a 25°F low at Melbourne, Florida, beating the old record of 26° for the date set in 1982. For comparison, 11 low temperature records were set Monday morning in Florida. Temperatures will continue to recover throughout the week as a major re-orientation of the jet stream takes place. By next week, a significant January thaw will occur over the Eastern U.S., and a period of stormy weather and heavy precipitation will impact the Western U.S.
Key West's temperature bottomed out at 51° this morning, breaking its string of 5 consecutive days with temperatures below 50°--the second longest such stretch on record there. However, the damage is done in the citrus growing regions of Florida, where four nights of extremely cold temperatures over the past week may have killed 7.5% of this year's citrus crop.
Here's a list of the number of daily minimum low temperature records set at major airports during the cold wave of January, 2010, in the South:--Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida:
January 2: 1 FL
January 3: 1 SC
January 4: 4 FL, 2 GA
January 5: 1 AR, 1 FL, 1 TX
January 6: 5 AL, 1 AR, 17 FL, 1 GA, 1 LA
January 7: 15 FL, 1 GA
January 8: 2 FL, 2 TX
January 9: 2 FL, 17 TX
January 10: 7 FL, 4 TX
January 11: 11 FL, 1 TX
January 12: 1 FL (data not all in yet)
Figure 1. Ice encases tangerines in Altoona, Florida. Image taken Sunday, January 10, 2010 by wunderphotographer CAVU.
A major jet stream pattern shift coming
As I noted in my post on Thursday, a sharp kink in the jet stream and a strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation was responsible for this winter's cold blast over eastern North America and Europe. However, the ridge of high pressure that has been blocking the west-to-east motion of weather systems over the past ten days is weakening and progressing eastwards, which will allow a jet stream pattern more typical of an El Niño winter to set up next week. The jet stream will dive southward over California, bringing a strong flow of moist, Pacific air to the West Coast. A series of powerful storms is expected to begin battering California Sunday, and these storms should bring significant drought relief--and flooding rains--to most of California and portions of Arizona. The stormy period will likely last at least a week.
A strong low pressure system will also bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast this Friday and Saturday. It currently appears that the large amount of cold, stable air this weekend's cold wave has delivered to the Gulf will prevent the storm from generating a significant tornado outbreak. Some isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with this storm, and we may see the Storm Prediction Center issue a "Slight" risk area of severe weather for this storm, late this week.
Figure 2. Surface pressure and precipitation forecast for next Wednesday, January 20, from this morning's 00Z run of the GFS model. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the West Coast and Desert Southwest, bringing large areas of rainfall in excess of 1/2 inch (green colors) during a 12-hour period. While the timing and areal coverage of this precipitation event will no doubt be different than this, given that 8-day forecasts are pretty unreliable, we can expect a very wet and stormy period of weather for the Western U.S. next week. In the Eastern U.S., a surface high pressure system will set up over the East Coast, pumping warm air northwards and bringing a significant January thaw to the Midwest and much of the Eastern U.S.
I'll have an update on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
As I awake the tree's were frozen from a 27 degree night in Land O Lakes Florida
Reader Comments
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nice rtn flow well into heart of cen tex dev begins shortly
Thanks for this. I'll be sending this to a few people.
Powerful storm system to affect the area Thursday-Saturday PM.
Potential for heavy rains and coastal flooding.
Impressive upper level storm system will be moving onshore S CA latter today and into N MX tonight and Thursday. Warm air advection will begin in earnest late tonight and really ramp up on Thursday as strong forcing aloft forces a coastal low off the lower TX coast. Moisture levels rapidly increase with PWs reaching over an inch by Thursday afternoon and nearing 1.3 inches Friday morning. Upper air pattern becomes strongly divergent over the region with impressive surface moisture convergence especially over our SW counties into the coastal bend. Expect significant heavy rainfall to develop and focus in the Matagorda Bay region Thursday afternoon/night and then spread up the coast Friday. Models are hammering away at high QPF bombs between Palacios and Rockport and the HPC 5-day total in this region is upwards of 6 inches.
Coastal surface low will deepen off the middle TX coast and move ENE toward the SC LA coast late Friday and early Saturday. Strong winds will develop over the coastal locations and waters with this event…although gale conditions look to be the extent of the winds and not the storm conditions the GFS was showing previously.
Impacts:
Rainfall:
Will need to grade totals from N to S as the highest totals will be S of I-10 and likely around Matagorda Bay. Will go with widespread 3-5 inches in the Matagorda Bay region with isolated amounts of 6-8 inches possible. Across the rest of SE TX widespread 1-3 inches with isolated 5 inches will be possible. Fairly long duration of this event does raise the concern for flooding however Flash Flood Guidance is fairly high and the grounds somewhat dry. Will be on the lookout for flooding by the weekend on the major river systems as this event will drop widespread rains over a large area which tends to focus more toward river flooding. Main concern areas right now would be the Tres Palacios, Lavaca/Navidad, lower Guadalupe, and Mustang Creek.
Tides:
Strong easterly winds will commence late Thursday as low pressure develops and begins to deepen off the lower TX coast and move ENE to NE up the coast. ENE winds will increase Friday into the 25-35mph range with 40mph gust along the coast and offshore. Tides will increase to 1-2 feet above normal and may result in some issues in the areas hard hit by Ike.
Will continue to fine tune the impacts over the next 24 hours.
Amen.
I do not know in the context of what they said, the only thing I can think of is that point of impact is when the fault moved.
All this stuff makes my head ache.
AGW supporters can point to their facts and reach one conclusion, and AGW skeptics can point to their facts and reach one 180 degrees opposite.
Astounding.
How is that definition of "point of impact" different from epicenter?
Doesn't that mean the same thing? The epicenter is the point on the earth's surface directly over the focus of the quake. "Epicenter" seems like the perfect word to use for what they are talking about.
Can you point me at a book that uses "point of impact", it really comes across as an "unsicentificky" phrase IMHO. (Taking off my vocabulary police hat now)
AIM(#450) I feel the same way today.
Oh so true. This video just happens to be what I learned in school though in both my graduate and undergraduate studies (geosciences). Of course, we also received the global warming theories but this point of view is the one that makes most sense to me. I thought this was a very easy-to-understand video and so I'm sending it to a few folks I know who didn't spend as much time in college studying global warming and only hear the one-sided theories on television.
Opinions are great, aren't they?
Orogenic events occur solely as a result of plate tectonics; the problems which were investigated and resolved by the study of orogenesis contributed greatly to the theory of plate tectonics, coupled with study of flora and fauna, geography and mid ocean ridges in the 1950s and 1960s.
The morning low temperature was 26.4 degrees at my location in North Jax. This makes the 12th time in 13 days that sub freezing temps were measured at my home. Truly amazing!
The forecast for tonight is near 30 degrees in the interior areas of NE FL. THE LIGHT IS FINALLY AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL!!! Tomorrow morning should be the last of sub freezing temps for awhile and I can say goodbye to the Great Freeze of 2010. It has cxeratinly left its mark in the history books in this area, that's for sure!
This day is so grim with the absolute sheer destruction and massive loss of life feared in Haiti. I have such aheavy heart right now and my deepest thoughts and prayers to everyone there.
Have a blessed day everyone.
MAP 5.4 2010/01/13 14:43:46 18.550 -73.000 33.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.2 2010/01/13 12:42:39 6.647 124.353 10.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
MAP 4.7 2010/01/13 12:41:45 18.411 -72.814 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.5 2010/01/13 12:28:26 18.409 -72.728 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 3.9 2010/01/13 11:17:55 47.431 -113.174 20.8 WESTERN MONTANA
MAP 4.8 2010/01/13 10:22:15 26.940 53.497 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
MAP 4.8 2010/01/13 10:08:21 76.940 18.262 10.0 SVALBARD REGION
MAP 2.5 2010/01/13 09:58:45 18.515 -67.410 17.5 MONA PASSAGE, PUERTO RICO
MAP 3.5 2010/01/13 08:44:40 63.641 -151.378 1.2 CENTRAL ALASKA
MAP 4.7 2010/01/13 08:35:09 0.791 123.941 269.2 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
MAP 2.7 2010/01/13 08:26:01 36.933 -119.118 37.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 5.0 2010/01/13 07:55:00 5.177 127.317 118.9 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 2.5 2010/01/13 07:52:59 60.529 -151.983 79.2 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
MAP 2.8 2010/01/13 07:37:00 31.867 -115.000 7.1 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
MAP 5.0 2010/01/13 07:23:04 18.355 -72.884 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.5 2010/01/13 06:58:27 18.346 -73.062 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.5 2010/01/13 06:48:03 18.379 -72.876 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.6 2010/01/13 06:24:17 18.339 -73.059 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.7 2010/01/13 05:49:24 18.431 -73.019 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.9 2010/01/13 05:24:03 18.438 -72.837 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.2 2010/01/13 05:18:03 18.386 -72.905 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.7 2010/01/13 05:02:58 18.417 -72.945 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 3.2 2010/01/13 04:28:17 57.392 -154.257 35.6 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
MAP 5.0 2010/01/13 03:52:22 -20.219 -68.605 64.9 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
MAP 4.7 2010/01/13 03:31:57 18.254 -72.922 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 2.7 2010/01/13 03:30:39 32.445 -115.159 27.6 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
MAP 4.6 2010/01/13 03:17:12 18.398 -72.997 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.6 2010/01/13 02:54:20 18.393 -72.974 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 3.2 2010/01/13 02:47:58 18.840 -64.493 33.3 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.7 2010/01/13 02:43:48 18.484 -72.984 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 2.5 2010/01/13 02:43:38 36.395 -117.870 0.2 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 4.8 2010/01/13 02:26:35 18.470 -72.836 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.7 2010/01/13 02:17:58 18.451 -72.956 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.9 2010/01/13 02:11:31 18.445 -73.026 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.4 2010/01/13 01:57:35 18.459 -72.924 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.0 2010/01/13 01:55:17 18.397 -72.824 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.5 2010/01/13 01:36:32 18.363 -72.832 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.3 2010/01/13 01:32:45 18.384 -72.950 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.7 2010/01/13 01:24:33 18.494 -72.811 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.1 2010/01/13 01:16:52 18.431 -72.856 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.6 2010/01/13 01:05:50 18.537 -72.666 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.2 2010/01/13 00:59:06 18.257 -72.914 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.0 2010/01/13 00:43:28 18.541 -72.486 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.8 2010/01/13 00:23:57 18.410 -72.716 10.0 HAITI REGION
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 4.5 2010/01/12 23:47:39 18.471 -72.851 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.5 2010/01/12 23:35:40 18.437 -72.811 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.8 2010/01/12 23:27:37 18.454 -72.808 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.8 2010/01/12 23:14:34 -13.800 34.491 10.0 MALAWI
MAP 5.1 2010/01/12 23:12:04 18.386 -72.555 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 4.2 2010/01/12 23:07:04 18.432 -72.620 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.5 2010/01/12 22:12:05 18.485 -72.556 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 5.9 2010/01/12 22:00:42 18.321 -72.848 10.0 HAITI REGION
MAP 7.0 2010/01/12 21:53:10 18.451 -72.445 10.0 HAITI REGION
I am with you with your thoughts about Haiti.
The point of impact would be synonymous with the focus rather than the epicenter since this is where the seismic waves originate. I think it is used more to 'visually' describe a quake since we can all imagine what happens when a stone in thrown into a body of water. The ripples begin at the point of impact and spread out.
As for books, you're on your own. We recently moved and I am not motivated to dig out any of my geology books from the attic :) I would just think of this as a colorful euphemism. Most people, present company excluded of course, would be lost if you started using terms like focus. However, point of impact they can understand.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/glossary/
"The epicenter is the point on the earth's surface vertically above the hypocenter (or focus), point in the crust where a seismic rupture begins. "
I'm waiting for a guy I know in Sweet Valley (24 miles from Stillwater) to call me back. I should know in the next hour or so whether he can get it and hold on to it
I've never seen the phrase "point of impact" used in terms of earthquake events; I think Fox News in their usual way, found a phrase they thought would be more interesting and applied it here...
Journalism is not what it used to be
You mean like when we had rampant yellow journalism in the late 19th century?
I have a daughter uin Eureka, CA, a sister in Portola Valley, and cousins up and down the CA coast. Please keep us updated on any CA earthquake info you know about. TIA
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