Deep freeze in the South continues

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on January 11, 2010

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The Deep South shivered through a ridiculously frigid weekend, with low temperature records crumbling over much of Florida, Texas, and Louisiana. This morning, record lows for the date fell in Miami, West Palm Beach, Tampa, Fort Myers, Lakeland, Tallahassee, and St. Petersburg. The most extreme low temperature record this morning was set in Key West, where the mercury fell to 42°F at 5am--the second coldest temperature ever observed in Key West. This is just 1° warmer than the all-time coldest temperature observed in Key West--41° in January of 1981 and 1873. Widespread reports of sleet and snow flurries accompanied the cold blast across Central Florida on Saturday, the eighth snow event in Florida since 2000, according to Wikipedia. It remains to be seen how much damage the $9.3 billion Florida citrus industry will see because of the cold blast, which is the most severe in Florida since the December 1989 cold wave that devastated the citrus industry. Temperatures below the 28° that causes fruit damage affected some citrus-growing areas again this morning, for the third consecutive morning.


Figure 1. Ice encases citrus in Altoona, Florida. Image taken Sunday, January 10, 2010 by wunderphotographer CAVU.

Intense and long-lasting cold
In Texas, two airports tied all-time January low temperature records on Saturday morning--Hondo, who's 12°F tied the record set January 11, 1982, and Cotulla La Salle, which hit 16°F, tying the record set January 13, 1975. Most of Texas' airports set daily low temperature records on Saturday morning. Saturday's low in Waco of 8°F broke the previous record of 15° for the date, and was the first time Waco has been in the single digits since the -4°F reading on December 23, 1989. Not only has the South's cold been intense, it has been exceptionally long-lasting. Montgomery, Alabama has had a low temperature below 25° nine consecutive days, breaking the old mark of seven straight days set in January 2001. With the cold snap only grudgingly scheduled to release its grip on the South, Montgomery can expect to run their streak of sub-25° lows to at least eleven straight days this week. Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida now have their second longest streak of days with a minimum temperature below freezing, at nine and eight days, respectively. Pensacola may equal or top their record of eleven straight days (set in January 1940) later this week, but Mobile is unlikely to break their record of fifteen straight days (set in February 1940). Also of note is that Key West has seen five consecutive days with low temperatures below 50 degrees (January 7th - 11th). This is the second longest such streak recorded in Key West, one day short of the record six-day streak on December 1 - 6, 1876. Key West has a decent chance of tying that record on Tuesday morning, when the low should fall to 50 or below.

A nicer beach weekend in Antarctica than Central Florida
Saturday's high and low temperatures in Orlando and Daytona Beach, Florida were 40° and 30°F. Tampa's high and low were 42°F and 29°F. Under sunny skies and light winds less than 10 mph, Saturday's high and low temperature at San Martin Base, Antarctica were 44° and 34°F. Gray, cloudy skies with winds gusting to 16 - 21 mph greeted beach goers at the beaches near Daytona Beach and Tampa, so it was a much nicer day at the beach in the Antarctic Peninsula than in Central Florida on Saturday (the Florida Chamber of Commerce loves stats like that!) Nice beach weather in Antarctica continued through Sunday, with sunny San Martin, Antarctica (high 41°, low 35°) recording an average temperature warmer than most stations in Central Florida. In all fairness, it is summer in Antarctica, and the ocean temperatures in Florida were a bit warmer than in Antarctica.

A major pattern shift coming
As I noted in my previous post, a sharp kink in the jet stream and a strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation is responsible for this winter's cold blast over eastern North America and Europe. The ridge of high pressure that has been blocking the west-to-east motion of weather systems over the past ten days is weakening, though, and a major shift in the winter weather pattern is in store for the Northern Hemisphere by late this week. A more typical El Niño pattern will set up, with the jet stream diving southward over California, bringing a strong flow of moist, Pacific air to the West Coast. A strong low pressure system will also bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will slowly moderate across Europe and the Midwest and Eastern U.S. this week as the pattern gradually shifts, and more ordinary winter weather can be expected in these regions by next weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first eight days of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Midwest and Southern U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Jeff Masters

Breakfast for one (earthlydragonfly)
Taken in Wintergarden Florida. Enjoy Mark
Breakfast for one
South Florida Freeze (dudleydocker)
This passes for icicles in south Florida.....
South Florida Freeze
Gainesville Deep Freeze (gatorgal)
On the campus at the University of Florida's
Gainesville Deep Freeze

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308. ElConando
11:53 PM GMT on January 11, 2010
Quoting presslord:
The Carolinas have frozen together into one right now
So their the Carolinas's now?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
307. NRAamy
11:52 PM GMT on January 11, 2010
303. presslord 3:51 PM PST on January 11, 2010
The Carolinas have frozen together into one right now



the what?

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 318 Comments: 31947
306. Beachfoxx
11:52 PM GMT on January 11, 2010
Ike, its good that these turtles have gotten refuge. I wonder how many other will be lost.animals
Quoting IKE:
Gulfarium in Fort Walton Beach,FL. takes in 80 sea-turtles from the cold weather....Link
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29385
305. Patrap
11:52 PM GMT on January 11, 2010
I gotta get a secretary,a Suit and a office with a Big Cherry 3 Panel door too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
304. Floodman
11:51 PM GMT on January 11, 2010
Quoting presslord:
Amy...I swear to God ...shut your piehole...


Damn, brother...cabin fever? Did you get snowed in or something? LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
303. presslord
11:51 PM GMT on January 11, 2010
The Carolinas have frozen together into one right now
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
302. NRAamy
11:50 PM GMT on January 11, 2010
293. presslord 3:45 PM PST on January 11, 2010
Amy...I swear to God ...shut your piehole...


hahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 318 Comments: 31947
301. Patrap
11:50 PM GMT on January 11, 2010
Im thinking about going into Banking, as I just saw what Stanley Morgan is paying out in Executive Bonuses this January.

Weather Blogging dosent get a Bonus.

But it sure is Fun,eh?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
Quoting Patrap:
All the latest guidance show a more Easterly track of the System..


Yep it landfalls in that curve area in Florida. Thats called something, I thought that was the big bend originally till I found out it wasn't.

Previous landfall was fort Walton beach in the extreme western Panhandle.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting Floodman:


Aside from the communications issues and inability to spell, you;re right...LOL

What is old Danny boy doing these days?


Well the political pipes are not calling. Hes prob doing something that makes 6 figs I guess.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
All the latest guidance show a more Easterly track of the System..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
Quoting presslord:
Amy...I swear to God ...shut your piehole...


Seriously Amy you sound like someone from the Carolinas. *runs and hides*
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting ElConando:


Not many are, at least Dan Quayle was experienced and somewhat knowledgeable away from camera.


Aside from the communications issues and inability to spell, you;re right...LOL

What is old Danny boy doing these days?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
That run has it around 1004mb in the gulf before going sub 1000 in the open Atlantic.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting Bordonaro:


The 12Z run slightly weakened the system to 1005MB. NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX is already putting up graphics on their web-page showing up to 4" of rain near Houston, to about 1" over Southern Tarrant Co, where I live, up tp 0.25" near the TX/OK border.

That previous post does not sound right!

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Amy...I swear to God ...shut your piehole...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting Bordonaro:


I was trying to figure out whether that is

1) an actual forecast from a meterologist

2) someone's personal opinion


Ah I see. That its based of one of the Sunday model runs when it was stronger so it is outdated now anyway for one thing.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting NRAamy:
My Local Weather:
John Wayne-Orange County, California
73 °F
Mostly Cloudy


yeah yeah yeah laugh it up
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
GFS Model Forecast Animation,Just Updated
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
My Local Weather:
John Wayne-Orange County, California
73 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 318 Comments: 31947

Climate Variability and Change Analysis
What We Do


Our Climate Variability and Change Research involves analysis of daily to multi-decadal atmospheric variations measured by many types of observing systems, with a special emphasis on radiosonde (weather balloon) data. Our radiosonde research has identified important data problems and produced new, improved datasets. We use these and other datasets to identify and characterize climate variability and trends. Through collaboration with climate modeling groups, our datasets are used to evaluate global climate models. Our analyses are published in leading scientific journals, and our data products, such as global upper-air temperature, heat wave, and water vapor datasets, are made publicly available to the scientific community and others through NOAA's National Climatic Data Center and other locations.

We collaborate with colleagues around the world to enhance the scope and quality of our work. Current collaborations include scientists from other NOAA Research Laboratories, NOAA National Weather Service, NOAA/NESDIS National Climatic Data Center, other Federal laboratories, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Illinois State Water Survey, various U.S. universities, as well as colleagues in the United Kingdom, China, and Russia.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
Quoting ElConando:


please tell me you were humoring me? LOL


I was trying to figure out whether that is

1) an actual forecast from a meterologist

2) someone's personal opinion
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
in my next life, I want to come back as STORMTOP...

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 318 Comments: 31947
Quoting Bordonaro:


The 12Z run slightly weakened the system to 1005MB. NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX is already putting up graphics on their web-page showing up to 4" of rain near Houston, to about 1" over Southern Tarrant Co, where I live, up tp 0.25" near the TX/OK border.

That previous post does not sound right!


Good its weaker more :).
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
NO YOU POOR MISGUIDED FOOL...FROM MY WEATHER OFFICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Actually it was StormTop.

from JFV's outhouse
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 318 Comments: 31947
Quoting Patrap:
Accu-hype?

Has that tone dosent it.


The 12Z run slightly weakened the system to 1005MB. NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX is already putting up graphics on their web-page showing up to 4" of rain near Houston, to about 1" over Southern Tarrant Co, where I live, up tp 0.25" near the TX/OK border.

That previous post does not sound right!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting presslord:
I AM ONLY TRYING TO SAVE LIVES HERE, PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


ALL FROM THE COMFORT OF MY MOMS BASEMENT.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Operational Forecasts

* Current Smoke forecasts (CONUS & Alaska)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
Quoting Bordonaro:


Really?


please tell me you were humoring me? LOL
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
I AM ONLY TRYING TO SAVE LIVES HERE, PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Temps down to 38 here.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting Bordonaro:


Did Joe Bastardi write this?




No, but Al Gore will blame it on AGW like he does everything else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:


Actually it was StormTop.


Really?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


Did Joe Bastardi write this?


Actually it was StormTop.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Accu-hype?

Has that tone dosent it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
ARL READY Current & Forecast Meteorology
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
Quoting RitaEvac:
SE TX:

Late Week:

Major storm system to affect the area with El Nino written all over this one!

Massive upper level trough within a developing split flow upper air pattern digs deep into Mexico with tremendous warm air advection and lift starting Thursday over much of TX. Surface cold air will be difficult to dislodge and expect the warm sector to remain offshore. Strong forcing ahead of the upper feature will promote intense cyclogenesis in the western/northwestern Gulf of Mexico late Friday. 12Z Sunday GFS showed an impressive 997mb low cranks up the TX coast into SC LA Saturday. A low of this magnitude will bring not only gale but possibly storm warning conditions to the coastal waters which is sustained winds of 55mph or greater. Coastal low should move up the coast Friday with several impacts from heavy to excessive rainfall to high tides and strong easterly winds. Upper level low will hang back over MX and eject across on Saturday as surface low moves into LA continuing the threat of rain and colder air into the early part of the weekend. Experience with such intense and deep systems usually supports a slower than guidance ejection of the storm system….so rainfall may need to be held back into Sunday. This slower progression of this system may allow more colder air to penetrate southward and become entrained with some threat of winter precip. over our NW and N counties late Saturday…although at this time it is a remote possibility. You usually do not see such intense storm systems of standard deviations of 2-4 below normal without some major impacts. Will define these impacts Tuesday and Wednesday as the track and intensity of this system become better defined.


Did Joe Bastardi write this?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
269. IKE
Gulfarium in Fort Walton Beach,FL. takes in 80 sea-turtles from the cold weather....Link
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Everybody stay safe!
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The wind will blow,,the East facing Shorelines will have rising tides,and the open Gulf will have sea's to 12 Ft offshore..yada,yada,..yada.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
Hurricanes, Snow, Drought, Snow, Hard Freezes,
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Gonna be some tide issues for TX and LA
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Quoting ElConando:


She would have made a good police in a remake of Fargo xD


LOL! I love that movie! wood-chipper...
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Quoting ElConando:


She would have made a good police in a remake of Fargo xD

Oh, the original is so good as it stands...
but Fargo II...that is brilliant. You really need to pitch it. I'm laughing thinking about it.

And remember Reba McIntyre's part in Tremors? Think another character like that would be good?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
404 PM CST Monday Jan 11 2010


Short term...
shortwave trough...accompanied by a reinforcement of modified
Arctic air/surface high pressure...will move through the Gulf
south tonight and Tuesday. This will bring a couple more nights of
hard freeze/freeze conditions mainly after midnight through about 8
am. Hard freeze warnings have been expanded to include the
northern half of the area...and a freeze warning has been issued
for the southern half late tonight. Lows will not be as cold as
the last couple mornings...but still cold enough for freeze
precautions to continue. Hard freeze watch/warning may be required
later for portions of the north/northeast forecast area late
Tuesday night. Daytime highs will continue to slowly
rise into the lower to middle 50s Tuesday and Wednesday...however
areas downwind from the now cold water bodies like the tidal
lakes and near shore bays and Gulf waters will be noticeably
cooler than the more inland locations. Hard freeze conditions are
not expected Wednesday night...but another light freeze is
expected over portions of northeast half.


Long term...
a shortwave trough moving through northwest Mexico will move east
and northeast across Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley
Wednesday and early Thursday as onshore flow in the low levels
develops. This will bring some increase in moisture and
clouds...but it should remain mostly dry through Thursday.


A very deep upper trough/low will develop over Mexico Thursday
into Friday which will cause a surface low to develop over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico. This system will move east/northeast
across the central Gulf Coast region Friday night through Saturday
night and draw copious amounts of moisture into the area. The
models...particularly the European model (ecmwf)...have been consistently showing
heavy rainfall amounts on the order of 1 to 3 inches across much
of the forecast area during the Friday night and Saturday time
frame which looks valid given the strength of this system. There
will be mostly elevated thunderstorms but steep lapse rates
aloft near/under the upper low could support isolated hail
reports. Drier but only slightly cooler air will move in on Sunday
into next Monday. 22/dew point


&&


Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with clear skies and
winds less than 10 kts. 95/dm


&&


Marine...
persistent offshore can be expected through Wednesday. Wind speeds
will increase slightly overnight due to thermal mixing between the
cooler air and warmer Gulf coastal waters. Even with this
increase...winds are currently expected to remain below headline
criteria. As the high shifts eastward Thursday...winds will become
more easterly and then southeasterly. At the same time...a strong
Gulf low is expected to develop over the western Gulf. The low is
expected to pass through the coastal waters Friday night and
Saturday. A tightening pressure gradient between the low and
exiting high will allow strong east winds of 20 to 30 knots to
develop over the coastal waters Thursday night...persisting through
Friday night. A long duration of strong easterly winds will allow
seas to build up to 12 feet in the outer waters. Small craft
advisories are likely for the end of the work week with gale
warnings possible.



Additionally...a prolonged period of moderate to strong easterly
winds will lead to elevated tides and the potential for coastal
flooding on east facing shorelines. 95/dm
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130381
p451 crazy wind!

Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Rita Evac, from which site (source) did #251 originate? That sounds ugly...


A met in houston I know
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Hey RitaEvac, where did you find that? I would love to add that to my blog!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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