Deep freeze in the South continues

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on January 11, 2010

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The Deep South shivered through a ridiculously frigid weekend, with low temperature records crumbling over much of Florida, Texas, and Louisiana. This morning, record lows for the date fell in Miami, West Palm Beach, Tampa, Fort Myers, Lakeland, Tallahassee, and St. Petersburg. The most extreme low temperature record this morning was set in Key West, where the mercury fell to 42°F at 5am--the second coldest temperature ever observed in Key West. This is just 1° warmer than the all-time coldest temperature observed in Key West--41° in January of 1981 and 1873. Widespread reports of sleet and snow flurries accompanied the cold blast across Central Florida on Saturday, the eighth snow event in Florida since 2000, according to Wikipedia. It remains to be seen how much damage the $9.3 billion Florida citrus industry will see because of the cold blast, which is the most severe in Florida since the December 1989 cold wave that devastated the citrus industry. Temperatures below the 28° that causes fruit damage affected some citrus-growing areas again this morning, for the third consecutive morning.


Figure 1. Ice encases citrus in Altoona, Florida. Image taken Sunday, January 10, 2010 by wunderphotographer CAVU.

Intense and long-lasting cold
In Texas, two airports tied all-time January low temperature records on Saturday morning--Hondo, who's 12°F tied the record set January 11, 1982, and Cotulla La Salle, which hit 16°F, tying the record set January 13, 1975. Most of Texas' airports set daily low temperature records on Saturday morning. Saturday's low in Waco of 8°F broke the previous record of 15° for the date, and was the first time Waco has been in the single digits since the -4°F reading on December 23, 1989. Not only has the South's cold been intense, it has been exceptionally long-lasting. Montgomery, Alabama has had a low temperature below 25° nine consecutive days, breaking the old mark of seven straight days set in January 2001. With the cold snap only grudgingly scheduled to release its grip on the South, Montgomery can expect to run their streak of sub-25° lows to at least eleven straight days this week. Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida now have their second longest streak of days with a minimum temperature below freezing, at nine and eight days, respectively. Pensacola may equal or top their record of eleven straight days (set in January 1940) later this week, but Mobile is unlikely to break their record of fifteen straight days (set in February 1940). Also of note is that Key West has seen five consecutive days with low temperatures below 50 degrees (January 7th - 11th). This is the second longest such streak recorded in Key West, one day short of the record six-day streak on December 1 - 6, 1876. Key West has a decent chance of tying that record on Tuesday morning, when the low should fall to 50 or below.

A nicer beach weekend in Antarctica than Central Florida
Saturday's high and low temperatures in Orlando and Daytona Beach, Florida were 40° and 30°F. Tampa's high and low were 42°F and 29°F. Under sunny skies and light winds less than 10 mph, Saturday's high and low temperature at San Martin Base, Antarctica were 44° and 34°F. Gray, cloudy skies with winds gusting to 16 - 21 mph greeted beach goers at the beaches near Daytona Beach and Tampa, so it was a much nicer day at the beach in the Antarctic Peninsula than in Central Florida on Saturday (the Florida Chamber of Commerce loves stats like that!) Nice beach weather in Antarctica continued through Sunday, with sunny San Martin, Antarctica (high 41°, low 35°) recording an average temperature warmer than most stations in Central Florida. In all fairness, it is summer in Antarctica, and the ocean temperatures in Florida were a bit warmer than in Antarctica.

A major pattern shift coming
As I noted in my previous post, a sharp kink in the jet stream and a strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation is responsible for this winter's cold blast over eastern North America and Europe. The ridge of high pressure that has been blocking the west-to-east motion of weather systems over the past ten days is weakening, though, and a major shift in the winter weather pattern is in store for the Northern Hemisphere by late this week. A more typical El Niño pattern will set up, with the jet stream diving southward over California, bringing a strong flow of moist, Pacific air to the West Coast. A strong low pressure system will also bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will slowly moderate across Europe and the Midwest and Eastern U.S. this week as the pattern gradually shifts, and more ordinary winter weather can be expected in these regions by next weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first eight days of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Midwest and Southern U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Jeff Masters

Breakfast for one (earthlydragonfly)
Taken in Wintergarden Florida. Enjoy Mark
Breakfast for one
South Florida Freeze (dudleydocker)
This passes for icicles in south Florida.....
South Florida Freeze
Gainesville Deep Freeze (gatorgal)
On the campus at the University of Florida's
Gainesville Deep Freeze

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting Patrap:
I saw Iguana Gumbo on a Local Magazine St. restaurant Menu today.

I passed and went with the red beans and rice with a smoke sausage Link.

Barqs root beer too.


The only way you could have made me more envious is if you had told me that you'd scrarfed down a whole oyster loaf and finished it off with a Dixie :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone remember what happened around the November 8-9 timeframe?

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
Quoting NRAamy:
I will read somw toight but pot no more.


yes, no more pot for you. good idea.


I thought I fixed that before anyone saw, shouild have known better It now says posy but now I have so I guess I was wrong again goodnight all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
Bord...your ditsy images are just fine by me...


Thank you for the compliment! I appreciate that! I look high and low for annoying smileys, penguins, Snoopies and Garfield's!

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
115 PM EST MON JAN 11 2010

VALID 12Z THU JAN 14 2010 - 12Z MON JAN 18 2010

...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEAR THE GULF COAST
LATE THIS WEEK...

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AS THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA
TOWARDS THE NORTH POLE...ACTING TO SPEED UP THE WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE SPLIT-FLOW
REGIME SEEN SINCE AT LEAST NOVEMBER WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH WITH AN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL PACIFIC JET CUTTING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND AIMING TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD BE MORE POTENT. IN KEEPING WITH THE SPIRIT
OF WHAT IS EVOLVING INTO A MORE TYPICAL FLOW PATTERN DURING EL
NINO CLIMATE REGIMES...WILL FAVOR THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH A
PREFERENCE TOWARDS STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS...WHICH FAVORS
THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z GEFS
MEAN/12Z GFS. THE PRESSURES USED A SIMPLE BLEND OF THE 00Z
CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH MAINTAINED
REASONABLE CONTINUITY. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WESTERLIES
ENSURES LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PREDICTABILITY OF SMALLER DETAILS
AND COULD LEAD TO SWINGS IN THE DETERMINISTIC/MANUAL GUIDANCE FROM
RUN-TO-RUN AND DAY-TO-DAY MID TO LATE PERIOD...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW DURING THE LESS PREDICTABLE LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER 2009
TIME FRAME
.
...WEST...
A SYSTEM CLIPPING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BRING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY TO BRITISH COLUMBIA/VANCOUVER ISLAND...BUT
ONLY A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEMS TRACK WOULD
BRING THE THREAT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. THE POSITION OF A
POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER WHICH IS POSITIVELY TILTED OVER ONTARIO
FAVORS A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH POINTED INTO CALIFORNIA...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO WETNESS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE GOLDEN STATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM /AND THE WAKE OF THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM/ ITS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOULD BE LOST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

...GULF COAST/EAST...
A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 3-5 SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN TEXAS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
. STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES ACROSS MEXICO IN BOTH THE 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURE PATTERN ARE IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 6 AND 4
SIGMAS BELOW NORMAL RESPECTIVELY. THIS ATYPICALLY COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE NATURAL TEMPERATURE GRADING IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHOULD LEAD EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 4-5 DAYS TIME WHICH
SHOULD DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW. IN SOME RESPECTS...THIS IS SIMILAR
TO THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND NOVEMBER 8-9 2009...BUT WITH STRONGER
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND NO TROPICAL CYCLONE INVOLVED
. WHILE THE 06Z
GFS WAS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS 12Z RUN HAS MADE
FAVORABLE CHANGES TOWARDS OUR PREVIOUS PREFERENCE. IF THE
GUIDANCE IS SOMEHOW A LITTLE TOO WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MEASURABLE FROZEN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING WITHIN ITS EXPECTED COMMA HEAD
. ONCE THE SYSTEM LIFTS
OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST/DEEPENS NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST...PRECIPITATION COULD START AND END AS FROZEN ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED.

ROTH/JAMES
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
...she's just mostly dead...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Quoting Floodman:


Nope; she's in critical condition...


Flood, you might want to re-read the article..

She was pronounced dead at 3:09 p.m. at John Peter Smith Hospital, according to the Tarrant County medical examiner's office.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
careful taz...or I'll put the dress back on...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Quoting Bordonaro:


She didn't survive according to the article!


Nope; she's in critical condition...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Bord, I think I did that, not you.

Like I said, I'm sorry Taz. I will mind my own business and not enquire about you in the future. Sorry, I worry about people.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Bordonaro:


Taz, I apologize, got it, Sonora, CA. We just wanted to make sure you were alright.

I did not mean to make you mad!



am find lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



NO I DONT GEEZS


I LIVE IN SONORA CA 95370 IN THE FOOTHILLS



HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO TELL EVERE ONE


AND NO I DONT LIVE IN N CA IN FAC ALL MOST LIVE RIGHT THERE ON THE N CA AND Central CA LINE


Taz, I apologize, got it, Sonora, CA. We just wanted to make sure you were alright.

I did not mean to make you mad!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
I will read somw toight but pot no more.


yes, no more pot for you. good idea.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Bord...your ditsy images are just fine by me...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
all so i will post and come and go has i Please
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back below freezing here in Elkton (fl) again. I can't turn the weather off but I just had 12 teeth pulled and 2 bonge graFTS. i am going to take my pain med and turn me off.At least I had this done in the COLD winter instead of the spring. I will read somw toight but post no more.

I left the sprinkler running for three nnights now. Wish I could post a picture.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
all so if any one nos how too ues a map you can find sonora ca right on it
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sorry Taz....just glad to see you...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Bordonaro:


Taz lives in Salinas, I am not sure how far that is from Eureka, I think he's 100 miles South of there.



NO I DONT GEEZS


I LIVE IN SONORA CA 95370 IN THE FOOTHILLS



HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO TELL EVERE ONE


AND NO I DONT LIVE IN N CA IN FAC ALL MOST LIVE RIGHT THERE ON THE N CA AND Central CA LINE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


Great inaccurate model data, this is not helpful with our upcoming S Plains/SE US storm.


There are other sources of brightness temperature that are used, so it is a shortage. I would not classify it as inaccurate.


1bamua NOAA 15-18 & METOP-2 AMSU-A NCEP-proc. br. temps

1bamub NOAA 15-17 AMSU-B NCEP-processed brightness temps

1bhrs3 NOAA 15-17 HIRS-3 NCEP-processed brightness temps

1bmhs NOAA 18 & METOP-2 MHS NCEP-processed br. temps

1bhrs4 NOAA 18 & METOP-2 HIRS-4 NCEP-processed br. temps

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"ditsy images"? you mean the smiley faces? wow...not sure how to respond to that one without getting myself banned....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
I think that's far enough away not to have been seriously affected...he's probably just taking a break from this place....

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting NRAamy:
hey...anyone heard from Taz...he lives up North...not sure how close he was to the earthquake...but he hasn't posted on his blog in awhile....


Taz lives in Salinas, I am not sure how far that is from Eureka, I think he's 100 miles South of there.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
332. jipmg
we are dropping like a rock in miami, 61-55

there is a stream of clouds TRYING to move over us.. but lets see if it makes it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey...anyone heard from Taz...he lives up North...not sure how close he was to the earthquake...but he hasn't posted on his blog in awhile....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Brightness Temperature from AQUA-AIRS is showing up as a shortage in data counts in the NAM and GFS.



Link


Great inaccurate model data, this is not helpful with our upcoming S Plains/SE US storm.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting atmoaggie:

I know it is used in the air quality forecast model parts of those, but not sure how much of the important things, like water vapor, from AIRS is used in GFS.

According to this "assimilation of AIRS satellite data" has been in GFS since 2005: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/AQChangelog.html
And "Improved assimilation of AIRS radiances" for NAM in 2008 (same link)

Maybe nrt can find more among his sources (he is very good at digging in the NCEP documents).


Brightness Temperature from AQUA-AIRS is showing up as a shortage in data counts in the NAM and GFS.



Link
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Quoting NRAamy:
Bord...I'm ready for it...bring it on, Bay-beeeeee!

:)

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Floodman:
Here's a story from Fort Worth this morning...this woman is sooo lucky (if she survives) that the weather has been so cold:

Woman critical after being pulled from frozen pond

Despite the story, the news just said that the Animal control officer noted that the dog was running back and forth and barking on the bank next to the woman's jacket and cell phone


She didn't survive according to the article!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Bord...I'm ready for it...bring it on, Bay-beeeeee!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Here's a story from Fort Worth this morning...this woman is sooo lucky (if she survives) that the weather has been so cold:

Woman critical after being pulled from frozen pond

Despite the story, the news just said that the Animal control officer noted that the dog was running back and forth and barking on the bank next to the woman's jacket and cell phone
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Matt lol ur just under 4 months older than me.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
Quoting NRAamy:
Bord....you're right on it, man...forecast is for rain next weekend thru the first part of next week....

:)


Have lot'sa of fun, you have a whole bunch of energy headed for S California :o)

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Holy fishsticks batman is already below freezing in Tallahassee!!!
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
Quoting presslord:


I just asked Whatshername to go for a walk on the beach with me...I can't post exactly what she said...but it involved my maternal parentage...


LOL...I've had that "conversation" myself...LST, not so much a fan of the cold weather. She's offered to have me 5150'ed a couple of times in the last week
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Bord....you're right on it, man...forecast is for rain next weekend thru the first part of next week....

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Hiya, Beachfoxx...how are you?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting presslord:
The Carolinas have frozen together into one right now


OMG...mark this day on your calendars, kids!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting P451:
100mph winds in Oregon.

Video Link


we are suppose to be on tap for 40mph gusts tonight - no cali
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Quoting NRAamy:
My Local Weather:
John Wayne-Orange County, California
73 %uFFFDF
Mostly Cloudy


In about 1 week, watch out for...

layouts myspace
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting tornadodude:
I'll be 50 January 9th, 2041
A

and I'll be 101. You might have to remind me to wish you a happy birthday.
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I guess I should simmer down :).
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
Thankfully this scene will be a bad memory soon.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting Patrap:
I saw Iguana Gumbo on a Local Magazine St. restaurant Menu today.


Bobby Boucher's momma finally opened up her own restaurant.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
Quoting Floodman:


Damn, brother...cabin fever? Did you get snowed in or something? LOL


I just asked Whatshername to go for a walk on the beach with me...I can't post exactly what she said...but it involved my maternal parentage...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Conan...don't start thinking like me now...you'll get banned from this blog for sure....

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
I saw Iguana Gumbo on a Local Magazine St. restaurant Menu today.

I passed and went with the red beans and rice with a smoke sausage Link.

Barqs root beer too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128272
Quoting presslord:
The Carolinas have frozen together into one right now
So their the Carolinas's now?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.