Deep freeze in the South continues

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on January 11, 2010

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The Deep South shivered through a ridiculously frigid weekend, with low temperature records crumbling over much of Florida, Texas, and Louisiana. This morning, record lows for the date fell in Miami, West Palm Beach, Tampa, Fort Myers, Lakeland, Tallahassee, and St. Petersburg. The most extreme low temperature record this morning was set in Key West, where the mercury fell to 42°F at 5am--the second coldest temperature ever observed in Key West. This is just 1° warmer than the all-time coldest temperature observed in Key West--41° in January of 1981 and 1873. Widespread reports of sleet and snow flurries accompanied the cold blast across Central Florida on Saturday, the eighth snow event in Florida since 2000, according to Wikipedia. It remains to be seen how much damage the $9.3 billion Florida citrus industry will see because of the cold blast, which is the most severe in Florida since the December 1989 cold wave that devastated the citrus industry. Temperatures below the 28° that causes fruit damage affected some citrus-growing areas again this morning, for the third consecutive morning.


Figure 1. Ice encases citrus in Altoona, Florida. Image taken Sunday, January 10, 2010 by wunderphotographer CAVU.

Intense and long-lasting cold
In Texas, two airports tied all-time January low temperature records on Saturday morning--Hondo, who's 12°F tied the record set January 11, 1982, and Cotulla La Salle, which hit 16°F, tying the record set January 13, 1975. Most of Texas' airports set daily low temperature records on Saturday morning. Saturday's low in Waco of 8°F broke the previous record of 15° for the date, and was the first time Waco has been in the single digits since the -4°F reading on December 23, 1989. Not only has the South's cold been intense, it has been exceptionally long-lasting. Montgomery, Alabama has had a low temperature below 25° nine consecutive days, breaking the old mark of seven straight days set in January 2001. With the cold snap only grudgingly scheduled to release its grip on the South, Montgomery can expect to run their streak of sub-25° lows to at least eleven straight days this week. Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida now have their second longest streak of days with a minimum temperature below freezing, at nine and eight days, respectively. Pensacola may equal or top their record of eleven straight days (set in January 1940) later this week, but Mobile is unlikely to break their record of fifteen straight days (set in February 1940). Also of note is that Key West has seen five consecutive days with low temperatures below 50 degrees (January 7th - 11th). This is the second longest such streak recorded in Key West, one day short of the record six-day streak on December 1 - 6, 1876. Key West has a decent chance of tying that record on Tuesday morning, when the low should fall to 50 or below.

A nicer beach weekend in Antarctica than Central Florida
Saturday's high and low temperatures in Orlando and Daytona Beach, Florida were 40° and 30°F. Tampa's high and low were 42°F and 29°F. Under sunny skies and light winds less than 10 mph, Saturday's high and low temperature at San Martin Base, Antarctica were 44° and 34°F. Gray, cloudy skies with winds gusting to 16 - 21 mph greeted beach goers at the beaches near Daytona Beach and Tampa, so it was a much nicer day at the beach in the Antarctic Peninsula than in Central Florida on Saturday (the Florida Chamber of Commerce loves stats like that!) Nice beach weather in Antarctica continued through Sunday, with sunny San Martin, Antarctica (high 41°, low 35°) recording an average temperature warmer than most stations in Central Florida. In all fairness, it is summer in Antarctica, and the ocean temperatures in Florida were a bit warmer than in Antarctica.

A major pattern shift coming
As I noted in my previous post, a sharp kink in the jet stream and a strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation is responsible for this winter's cold blast over eastern North America and Europe. The ridge of high pressure that has been blocking the west-to-east motion of weather systems over the past ten days is weakening, though, and a major shift in the winter weather pattern is in store for the Northern Hemisphere by late this week. A more typical El Niño pattern will set up, with the jet stream diving southward over California, bringing a strong flow of moist, Pacific air to the West Coast. A strong low pressure system will also bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will slowly moderate across Europe and the Midwest and Eastern U.S. this week as the pattern gradually shifts, and more ordinary winter weather can be expected in these regions by next weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first eight days of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Midwest and Southern U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Jeff Masters

Breakfast for one (earthlydragonfly)
Taken in Wintergarden Florida. Enjoy Mark
Breakfast for one
South Florida Freeze (dudleydocker)
This passes for icicles in south Florida.....
South Florida Freeze
Gainesville Deep Freeze (gatorgal)
On the campus at the University of Florida's
Gainesville Deep Freeze

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Quoting hydrus:
Good Morning Floodman, A warm 22 degrees here with flurries. Hope you back is good.


It's much better now that the temps are moderating...
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Lets try that again.

We are all treated discussions with family and friends regarding weather and climate.
I note that my borther-in-law is an self proclaimed expert in this (and numerous other) matters. Using his extensive experience and powers of reasoning and deduction, any single data point that he observes can be extrapolated to the entire planet! Gerrrrrr.

So the question remains, is anyone aware of a single source reference (THAT IS NOT CLIFFS NOTES !!) that discusses ALL of the various world weather patterns and how they historically tend to act AND INTERACT. These weather patterns would include;

- El Nino (all flavors)
- La Nina (does it come in flavors ?)
- the Pine Apple Express
- the North Atlantic Oscillation
- various Monsoon patterns
- whatever happens around Antartica
- anything else that I haven't included.

Thanks again.
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NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG!! GOOD MORNING!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Orcasystems:


I leave tomorrow for a week in Cancun StormW... what can I expect for weather?

28C and fine for your whole holiday.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting StormW:


Wish I could...we could put down some Fosters together.

We got better beer here than Fosters. That's why it's exported. We don't drink that stuff here.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Good morning to you all got down to 19 degrees last night incredibly enough. This front doesn't wanna go away quietly man.
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Quoting StormW:


Wish I could...we could put down some Fosters together.


I leave tomorrow for a week in Cancun StormW... what can I expect for weather?
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Quoting Floodman:
Morning folks, by the way...it's a balmy 35.5 here in Fort Worth
Good Morning Floodman, A warm 22 degrees here with flurries. Hope you back is good.
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Yo Floodman,

I wrote a limerick today that you might enjoy! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3683
I will not take any blame for the weather in Florida... I got this post in my blog from BowardJeff, he has found the remote.. and if he starts channel surfing the weather... its not our fault ;)


1065. BrowardJeff 3:50 AM GMT on January 12, 2010
Ok..got to Toronto..found the remote, but someone took the batteries! It may take me a day or two to get replacements in..I think they come from Mexico.

No worries, I'm pretty sure I can get it working and fix this thing.

By the way, it's was a beautiful 22F with light flurries when I landed..nice, 'eh?
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Morning folks, by the way...it's a balmy 35.5 here in Fort Worth
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Quoting toontown:
Is anyone aware of a single source reference that discusses in not to much detail ALL of the various world weather patterns and how they historically tend to act and interact. These weather patterns would include
- El Nino (all flavors)
- La Nina (does it come in flavors ?)
- the Pine Apple Express
- the (new to me) North Atlantic Oscillation
- various Monsoon patterns
- anything else that I haven't included.

Thanks


ROFLMAO, Weather 101 Cliff notes.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Positive Wind Chill?
Do they round up the windchill? I am being picky but how does a temp of 31.4 (even with a wind of 0) have a windchill of 32?
Is it possibly sampled at a slower rate and fluctuating or does the software just round up?

Ya'll are makin me miss the big easy.


Man, that has to be an input error somewhere...
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594. IKE
Latest NAM run at 84 hours....

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Is anyone aware of a single source reference that discusses in not to much detail ALL of the various world weather patterns and how they historically tend to act and interact. These weather patterns would include
- El Nino (all flavors)
- La Nina (does it come in flavors ?)
- the Pine Apple Express
- the (new to me) North Atlantic Oscillation
- various Monsoon patterns
- anything else that I haven't included.

Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

I had 25F for a low yesterday, and 29F this morning...Global Warming my backside.

Good Morning
Come to Sydney and it will change your mind.
Currently 85.1F..... Relative Humidity: 58%
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Sorry to show this but, this is the reason why I am not in bed.

Parramatta Forecast
This morning: 75°F
Today: 88°F
Possible thunderstorm
Now: 85.1°F falling
Updated at 01:30 EDT
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
589. IKE
I'm up to 38.5. My heater cut off!
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Good morning...
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Hey Ike it sure would to think happy thoughts about oil but they will get us someway. starting to warm up here in Tampa
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Here we go, SE TX:

Significant storm system to impact the area at the end of the week.

Old cold arctic high pressure moving off to the east this morning with weak onshore flow returning. Weak trough will be moving into SW TX today and Wednesday with moisture starting to return. Powerful upper level storm system will quickly follow into NW MX and then deepen over NE MX and SW TX on Thursday producing a threat of very heavy rains, strong winds, and coastal flooding along the TX coast.

Moisture return will begin in earnest Wednesday as southerly flow overruns the retreating cold dome at the surface. Isentropic processes begin to increase clouds and possibly light rainfall by Wednesday evening. Early Thursday the potent upper storm over MX begins to close off from the main flow while spreading strong forcing eastward over the TX coastal areas. At the surface an intense coastal surface low will develop off the lower TX coast under deep layer forcing and developing deep convection. GFS has trended weaker and more S and E with this feature over the past 24 hours however the ECMWF and CMC show the low much closer to the coast. At this point will split the difference on the tracks and show the system of 1002-1006mb tracking from near Padre Island to offshore of Matagorda Bay and then ENE toward offshore of Sabine Pass. Development of intense convection over the offshore waters may help to deepen this surface low even more as the GFS was showing yesterday (997mb). Very deep upper low pulls across on Saturday as coastal low moves on into LA. Expect extensive wrap around clouds and rainfall under strong cold air advection regime on the backside of the surface low. Critical thickness are not cold enough for anything frozen and will keep everything as a cold rain at this time.

Rainfall:

System looks very wet with moisture levels increasing to around 180% above mid Jan normals. This would normally raise red flags for a flooding threat as the magic % above normal is around 200%. PWS rising to near 1.2 inches by early Friday along with maximum lift from 600am to 600pm Friday point toward a very wet day across the southern ½ of the area. Feel bands of heavy rainfall will move SW to NE over the region on the north side of the coastal low as it passes offshore. Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches look reasonable with isolated totals of 5 inches possible. Lack of significant rains in December as allowed grounds at least up top to dry some however given the time of year and lack of any vegetation there will be good run-off produced by this event. 3-hour flash flood guidance is around 3” along the coastal counties and closer to 4 inches over the inland counties while 6-hour guidance is around 3.5” over the coastal sections and 4.0 inches elsewhere. Current HPC QPF amounts do not exceed the shorter duration guidance, but I suspect given the amount of moisture and dynamics with this system several hours of .5-1.5 inches over a 24 hour period could run up some decent totals and result in some good run-off. Appears the event will be more of a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over a large area which tends to focus more issues toward the larger river basins than the smaller creeks and bayous. Too early to determine for sure the exact location of the heaviest rainfall and totals.

Coastal Flooding:

Fairly intense coastal low event for winter along the TX coast. Conditions will be similar to a tropical storm based on the GFS and ECMWF solutions this morning. Surface pressure falls into the low to middle 1000’s support very breezy conditions over the waters and along the coast. Looks good for sustained gale conditions in all of our coastal waters starting late Thursday and continuing into early Saturday with the possibly of border line storm conditions (55mph+) for the outer waters on Friday especially if the previous sub 1000mb GFS progs turn out to be correct. Strong E to ENE winds on the north side of the surface low will result in long fetch wind flow toward the coast, favorable Ekman transport, and building swells. Extra-tropical storm surge model run off the GFS with its track suggests water level rise of 1-2 feet along the beaches. Expect overall tides to run 2-3 feet above normal Thursday PM-Friday PM, and this could cause some issued on the very vulnerable Bolivar peninsula, west end of Galveston, upper Brazoria County, and the west sides of Matagorda and Galveston Bays. Coastal Flood Watch will likely be needed on Wednesday to cover this aspect.

Winds:

Breezy easterly winds will develop Thursday and increase into Friday and Saturday while over time backing to the NE and eventually the NW as the coastal low moves into and pass the region. Coastal winds will be sustained in the 25-30mph range with gust to 40mph while inland winds of 15-25mph with gust to 35mph will be likely especially on Friday.

As additional model runs become available changes to these impacts will be made. Track and intensity of the coastal surface low will result in changing impacts over the next 48 hours.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
585. IKE
Here's some possible good news....

"Iraqi oil may rival Saudi Arabia
8:24am: The country aims to pump 11 million barrels a day in the next decade, possibly bringing down the price of oil. Major challenges lie ahead."

From CNN.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Well I am canceling my vacation plans for tropical Park Heights its gotten to 42 down here I think we will do the flip flop sometime today. Signing of from arctic south Fl.


Agreed... hopping on a plane to Cancun Wed morning :)

Now for a change of events... you guys can have your warm temps back..and take ours with you.... we need some cold up here so the mountains can regain some of the snow they lost this week. Olympic skiing is hard to do on bare rocks.
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Good morning! Current temps below.
Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
28.6 °F
Clear
Windchill: 29 °F
Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 26 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 30.34 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 12 ft

Let the warming begin!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11314
Well I am canceling my vacation plans for tropical Park Heights its gotten to 42 down here I think we will do the flip flop sometime today. Signing of from arctic south Fl.
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Quoting Raysfan70:
Good Morning!!

Thankfully this is the last morning of these temps.
Tampa Executive, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 30 min 8 sec ago
25 °F
Clear
Windchill: 25 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 23 °F
Wind: Calm



our hifghs are getting a little better but the lows are the same! only 23 instead of 13. its still frikken cold! we are just getting used to it
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Good Morning......The worst of the El Nino driven severe weather events for the Gulf Coast and Florida will probably come in Feb and March when the temperatures moderate a bit more going towards the Spring so I hope that this weekend's Gulf low will only bring rain and not tornados.......
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'morning all! :)

My blog is updated, and special for today is one of my famous limericks. The topic for the rhyme is "The Funniest Thing I Ever Saw."

I see there are places down south colder than my freezer temperature setting. LOL...there is still mountains of snow and ice here in the mountains. It will take a spring thaw to break it down, and that's still quite aways off.

Enjoy the day you've been given! Peace, out!

Oz---
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3683
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Positive Wind Chill?
Do they round up the windchill? I am being picky but how does a temp of 31.4 (even with a wind of 0) have a windchill of 32?
Is it possibly sampled at a slower rate and fluctuating or does the software just round up?

Ya'll are makin me miss the big easy.
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574. IKE
My low was 29.8. Sun is shining brightly in the eastern sky. High in the 50's today.
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571. IKE
Latest Rolling Stone cover...

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570. IKE
New Orleans...

LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT FOR MANY DAYS NOW ON THE
LARGE AMPLITUDE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS/MEXICO
FRIDAY AND INDUCING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCLUDING ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY. THE
TRAJECTORY OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LOW WOULD INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE WITH ELEVATED STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRATIFORM RAIN PROCESS OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS CONFINED TO COASTAL WATERS AND ADVANCING
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN
60-70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
CONVECTION UNDER COLD POOL MAY STILL IMPART BRIEF SPURTS OF HAIL
PRODUCTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME...JUST A CONSIDERATION FOR A POSSIBLE IMPACT.
AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WIL BE HIGHLY MODIFIED PACIFIC
MARITIME/CONTINENTAL WITH NO WINTER WEATHER RAMIFICATIONS IN
DEFORMATION ZONE. A MILDER WEEK IS EXPECTED TEMPERATURE WISE
SUNDAY ONWARD. GULF REALLY OPENS UP BY MID NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
LARGE PACIFIC TYPE SYSTEM. A FEW NIGHTS OF FOG/DENSE FOG CONCERNS
MAY BE IN THE OFFING WITH STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION.

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Good Morning!!

Thankfully this is the last morning of these temps.
Tampa Executive, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 30 min 8 sec ago
25 °F
Clear
Windchill: 25 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 23 °F
Wind: Calm

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568. IKE
A necessity in this weather.....

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567. IKE
30.2 my morning low.

102 hour 6Z GFS.....

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565. unf97
Good morning everyone.

Well, so far the low temperature this morning has been 23.6 degrees.

Current temp 24.5 degrees. This makes 11 out of 12 days of sub freezing low temps at my home North Jax location. This has been an unprecedented prolonged frigid cold event, the Great Freeze of 2010 is what the local mets are terming this event.

We will have possibly two more sub freezing nights. Definitely tonight as a shortwave is currently moving through the SEUS and swings though, bringing a quick reinforcement of cold air. Lows tonight again in the 20s, and near freezing interior areas on Thursday morning.

FINALLY, it appears the Great Freeze of 2010 will end as warm advection finally develops ahead of a developing Low pressure system which models prog to form off the SE TX coast. Then, we turn our attention to next big weather, as this system has the potential to be a huge rain maker along the Gulf Coast and SEUS for this weekend.

Gotta love the weather, from one extreme of bitter cold, to potential heavy rain extreme this weekend.

Have a great day everyone.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
564. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
morning Ike, Hey can i borrow those two lakes till it gets warmer. Please


LOL.
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morning Ike, Hey can i borrow those two lakes till it gets warmer. Please
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562. IKE
30.7...my low this morning...so far.
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Morning all, Ok there comes a time when enough is enough. This is fl. ugh!!
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Quoting Nimitz:


A few years ago, it was fewer steps from my grandma's place on Cortez to Mandina's on Canal. I always went there first thing and got a whole loaf. Of course, they told the "tourist" (who no longer had his Nawlins accent) that it was very hard to eat a whole loaf. I told them to bring it on, and ate the whole thing every time ;)

Byron, of Dauphine St., Chalmette, and the Chef of East New Orleans, all of which Katrina wiped off the map.
I hope your team wins the big game this year!Sorta help with what happened.:)
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Quoting Patrap:


Only 2 Dixie's Left in da fridge..and there for my Tuesday Shrimp Po-boy from Guy's on Magazine,round Noon tomorrow.

They are 312 steps from the House here on Constance.

Maybe one day we can scarf together there.



A few years ago, it was fewer steps from my grandma's place on Cortez to Mandina's on Canal. I always went there first thing and got a whole loaf. Of course, they told the "tourist" (who no longer had his Nawlins accent) that it was very hard to eat a whole loaf. I told them to bring it on, and ate the whole thing every time ;)

Byron, of Dauphine St., Chalmette, and the Chef of East New Orleans, all of which Katrina wiped off the map.
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Iron Mountain, Michigan (Airport)
Updated: 1:54 AM CST on January 12, 2010
17 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 12 °F
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 13 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 30.45 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 1200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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