NHC increases hurricane forecast lead times

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on January 05, 2010

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced today that beginning with the 2010 hurricane season, their hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for the U.S. coast will be extended in time by an additional 12 hours. Warnings will now be issued 36 hours in advance instead of 24 hours, and watches will be issued 48 hours in advance, instead of 36 hours. The increase in lead time for watches and warnings has been made possible by the tremendous improvement in hurricane track forecasts, which have improved by over 50% in the past twenty years (Figure 1). "With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life-saving decisions regarding evacuations", said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, in today's press release.


Figure 1. Average track errors for NHC Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecasts issued between 1990 - 2008. Track errors have improved by over 50% in the past 20 years. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Commentary
NHC has been debating for a number of years how best to "invest" the gains accrued from the steady improvement in hurricane track forecasts. One obvious savings from these better hurricane forecasts has come from the reduced evacuation costs. When a hurricane warning is issued 24 hours before the expected arrival of hurricane-force winds at the coast, it costs approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina coast (Whitehead, 2003). According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the length of coast warned decreased significantly in the past decade. During the decade of the 1990s, the average length of a hurricane warning was 455 miles, but that fell to just 335 miles between 2000 - 2006. Thus, an average of 120 fewer miles of coast were warned, at an average savings of $120 million per hurricane warning issuance. During this period, 17 storms requiring 25 hurricane warnings occurred. If the costs of coastal evacuations are indeed $1 million per mile, the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 - 2006 resulted in savings of $3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.

However, the new increased lead times for hurricane watches and warnings will lead to an increase in the length of coast warned, due to the higher uncertainties in hurricane tracks at longer forecast lead times. Between 2004 - 2008, approximately 25% of the coast that was placed under a hurricane warning actually received hurricane force winds; this percentage was 20% for areas placed under a hurricane watch. These percentages will decline with the new increased watch and warning lead times, costing money in unnecessary evacuations, and leading to increased complacency in the warned population due to too much "crying wolf".

Balanced against these increased costs is the potential disastrous loss of life should a hurricane hit an unprepared, heavily populated shoreline. With the U.S. population continuing to increase rapidly in coastal regions, the time needed to evacuate vulnerable populated regions is increasing. For example, evacuation times for the major urban areas of Texas are 28 - 34 hours for a major hurricane. Though the costs of overwarning the coast is significant, the savings in both human lives and dollars from increased warning times should outweigh these costs. In the 2002 book, Hurricane: Coping With Disaster, Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former director of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, analyzed hurricane death statistics. In 1950, about 70 U.S. residents died per year in hurricanes. In the 50 years since, the coastal population expanded by a factor of 3.2, so if we were managing the hurricane problem the way we did in 1950, we would be losing about 220 people a year. The long-term average is still about twenty per year, not including the deaths due to the levee failures during Katrina. That means we're preventing about 200 deaths per year compared with 1950. How much are these saved lives worth? A life, is, of course, priceless, but in the cold world of economics, the value of life-saving scientific research and government regulations is estimated using statistics of what people are willing to pay to avoid certain risks, and what extra money employers pay their workers to take on additional risks. This data comes primarily from payroll statistics, but opinion surveys also play a role. In 2004, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) valued an American life at $8 million. EPA cut the value of a life by 8% that year, and a further 3% in May 2008, making the economic value of a life $6.9 million in today's dollars. The Department of Transportation gives a lower figure of a life as being worth $5.8 million. Using this number implies a savings of about $1.2 billion per year for the 200 lives saved per year by better hurricane warnings and evacuations. Today's decision by NHC to increase warning times should continue this trend of saving lives, which will also provide considerable monetary benefit. Despite the increased costs and dangers of "crying wolf" too often due to overwarning the coast, I believe that the double value of saving lives--for both the intrinsic and monetary value of a human life--makes NHC's move of increasing warning and watch times the right call.

References
Whitehead, J.C., 2003: "One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of Hurricane evacuation", Ocean and Coastal Management 46, 1069.

I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Any chance of snow for central GA?
I've read the forecasts but I want a blogger's perspective too because ive seen some pretty cool created maps here XD
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Quoting largeeyes:
I am driving from eastern NC to Cincinnati on Friday starting around 11am. Looks like we may pick up some snow sometime during the drive. When will this storm be more vetted so I can decide if I want to try to drive around it?


40 will be bad; what route are you taking?
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Quoting largeeyes:
I am driving from eastern NC to Cincinnati on Friday starting around 11am. Looks like we may pick up some snow sometime during the drive. When will this storm be more vetted so I can decide if I want to try to drive around it?
U going over I-40? Cuz I'm thinkin' there may be some snow over the Mtns and along the Cumberland plateau around that time....
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Quoting JeffMasters:


I saw an article which discussed an experiment that was done to test whether hot water froze faster than cold water (Weatherwise?) The cold water froze faster.

Jeff Masters


It makes sense from the standpoint of energy; more heat to remove (dissipate) before freezing could start. I did it in my freezer when I was young to prove to my grandmother that it wasn't true...got smacked into the bargain...LOL

She didn't like being wrong
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84. amd
In many countries, a human life is valued at $50,000 per 1 quality year of life.

A Stanford study says that a human life should be values at $129,000 per 1 quality year of life.

Here's an article from Time Magazine discussing this issue:

Link
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


We were under a freeze warning last night and barely got out of the 40's. Warmed to 59 here today, we'll see about that freeze.
Quoting jipmg:


SFL was under a freeze watch for the potential of dipping into the mid 30s..

Also, the clouds that formed over night, along with more westerly winds (bringing in gulf heat) caused the temperature to stay in the 40s.

Tonight its more of a NW wind, and completely clear, the temperature is already dropping rapidly, its 57


I clarified my post to say Palm Beach County. As I assumed everyone knows where I live right, lol. I live inland in Wellington PBC, under a freeze warning last night. I noticed the clouds this morning once the sun came up, temps were down to 39.8. for a low.
Quoting atmoaggie:
29: What if it is a bit overdone and we "necessarily skyrocket" the cost of energy, thus that needed for adequately heating a home and people die for nothing?

(I have yet to hear how the ardent supporters propose to heat without extensive power use or direct fossil fuel use, come to think of it)

Thoughtless cartoon...and bad timing.


But the punchline is the whole point...it's the hilarious part of the whole debate. It wasn't meant to be serious (or I would assume not), just insightful and humorous.
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Forgot Scientists, LOL!

(Dr. Jeff embarrasses - sp? - me once again, today!)
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I am driving from eastern NC to Cincinnati on Friday starting around 11am. Looks like we may pick up some snow sometime during the drive. When will this storm be more vetted so I can decide if I want to try to drive around it?
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On the claims of who is or is not going to hell, "judge not lest ye be judged".

On the QUIKScat failure, I always thought of QUIKScat as more of a cyclogenesis tool than a landfall-related tool. In most instances, NHC isn't relying on it by the time they're looking at landfall windows. Plus there are IIRC other tools which can be used to estimate wind speeds....
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78. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Floodman:


One would assume so, all things being equal; it's an old wives tale that hot water freezes faster than cold water...less time to get the ice to start forming in a lower temperature sample, so colder temps would likely indicate a faster (or maybe complete) freeze


I saw an article which discussed an experiment that was done to test whether hot water froze faster than cold water (Weatherwise?) The cold water froze faster.

Jeff Masters
OY VEY. Methinks G-d as you understand him/her loves everyone with a kind heart, including but not limited to, agnostics, atheists, and animals, too.

Self-imposed time-out for me; doggy park is waiting.

Blessings to all (and a "shout-out" to my Christian friend Bordo who knows and practices what that means in the true and wider sense of the word)!
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Dr. Masters...Is it OK if we get a little "side action" goin' on the forecast contest?
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


We were under a freeze warning last night and barely got out of the 40's. Warmed to 59 here today, we'll see about that freeze.


SFL was under a freeze watch for the potential of dipping into the mid 30s..

Also, the clouds that formed over night, along with more westerly winds (bringing in gulf heat) caused the temperature to stay in the 40s.

Tonight its more of a NW wind, and completely clear, the temperature is already dropping rapidly, its 57
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74. JeffMasters (Admin)
We're running our annual forecast contest again, starting today. The contest lasts 6 weeks, and the first city is Burlington, Vermont. For those interested, the link is:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundercast/

Jeff Masters
29: What if it is a bit overdone and we "necessarily skyrocket" the cost of energy, thus that needed for adequately heating a home and people die for nothing?

(I have yet to hear how the ardent supporters propose to heat without extensive power use or direct fossil fuel use, come to think of it)

Thoughtless cartoon...and bad timing.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting hurricane23:
Freeze warning in affect for dade county!

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AN UPGRADE TO THE FREEZE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO VERY NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
METRO SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TONIGHT. IN BOTH BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SUBURBS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN AREAS NEAR THE SAWGRASS
EXPRESSWAY AND HIGHWAY 27 IN BROWARD COUNTY...AND NEAR THE
HOMESTEAD EXTENSION OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE IN WESTERN SUBURBS OF
MIAMI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS



We were under a freeze warning last night in Palm Beach County and barely got out of the 40's. Warmed to 59 here today, we'll see about that freeze.
#64. I am a Christian, I agree with you. Remember, "As wise as a serpant, gentle as a dove"! There are times to pull out the sword, my friend, this is not one of them :0).

Human life is priceless, I believe God put the same love and effort into me, as in you, and the rest of my blogger friends!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Best part of recent Miami Area Forecast Discussion

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLOW WARMING TREND IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW.


Bad part, looks like we get our "Less than 1 day or never" tomorrow morning :(




more than 30? hmmmm
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Quoting Floodman:
28.

Bord, complacency will happen regardless of false warnings...people that died in Katrina lived through Camille; remember the story out of that hurricane about the Hurricane party with one survivor, a young boy that was lucky enough to have been swept into a tree? There were still people in their homes in Pass Christian and the lower 9th when Katrina came through. Nature culls the herd in whatever way she sees fit. Me and mine? We run...I don't mind a road trip now and again...


This will def give more time to people in South and Central Florida to clear out and move inland or north or South to get out of Harms way.
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Best part of recent Miami Area Forecast Discussion

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SLOW WARMING TREND IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW.


Bad part, looks like we get our "Less than 1 day or never" tomorrow morning :(


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Quoting ElConando:
A quick question. Water would freeze faster at 0 Degrees than at 32, correct?


One would assume so, all things being equal; it's an old wives tale that hot water freezes faster than cold water...less time to get the ice to start forming in a lower temperature sample, so colder temps would likely indicate a faster (or maybe complete) freeze
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Quoting stormgazin:
How will the lack of QuikSCAT impact the NHC error trend?


Increased blog bickering about weather or not it is a closed low and why the NHC hasn't called it is about all it will affect.
Quoting Floodman:
28.

Bord, complacency will happen regardless of false warnings...people that died in Katrina lived through Camille; remember the story out of that hurricane about the Hurricane party with one survivor, a young boy that was lucky enough to have been swept into a tree? There were still people in their homes in Pass Christian and the lower 9th when Katrina came through. Nature culls the herd in whatever way she sees fit. Me and mine? We run...I don't mind a road trip now and again...


I know it's a crappy part of human nature!!
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62. IKE
8-14 day temp. outlook....




8-14 day precip outlook....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Interesting topic in the blog this afternoon. I'll be interested to see how these new advisory lead times will play out in a real life setting. I see the advantages, and I see the reasoning behind it. So how will this affect planning and organization for disaster preparedness organizations, groups, and workers?
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60. IKE
6-10 day temp. outlook....




6-10 day precip outlook...


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
You guys are hilarious. Being a lightweight and also being a cheapskate (ordering one glass of house white) makes me worth a lot less.

But can you imagine if they had been able to re-use the stuff in our systems 20, 30 years ago! Whoo hoo, we'd be rich!

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Any chances of Frost advisories on Thurs for N Florida?
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A quick question. Water would freeze faster at 0 Degrees than at 32, correct?
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28.

Bord, complacency will happen regardless of false warnings...people that died in Katrina lived through Camille; remember the story out of that hurricane about the Hurricane party with one survivor, a young boy that was lucky enough to have been swept into a tree? There were still people in their homes in Pass Christian and the lower 9th when Katrina came through. Nature culls the herd in whatever way she sees fit. Me and mine? We run...I don't mind a road trip now and again...
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Excellent move, NHC! I'm proud of y'all, :).
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Interesting forecast discussion, espcially the long range Friday - Sunday period by the Jax mets:

THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI HOLDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY NEAR A WEAK SFC
LOW THAT MAY CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NE GULF (PER THE GFS40). ALL
MODELS AGREE THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
HAVE CAPPED POPS BETWEEN 30-40% FOR THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
FIRST AFFECT OUR GA ZONES AFTER 00Z FRI. BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI THERE
REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED FROZEN PRECIP
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOMERVILLE TO WAYCROSS TO JESUP LINE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION BELOW 800 MB AND ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS... THEN TEMPS AND SATURATION FALLING BELOW FREEZING AROUND
900-915 MB. IF ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING CAN OCCUR...IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FREEZING PRECIP IN THE FORM OF ICE PELLETS
(SLEET) OR MAYBE FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR. AREAS MOST VULNERABLE TO
ICE FORMATION WILL BE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AND WE CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
FROZEN PRECIP WITH AND TRAILING FRONT.

FRI WILL BE A DREARY...BREEZY AND COLD DAY WITH MAXES ONLY RISING
INTO THE 40S UNDER A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY
WESTERLY...SO WILL SEE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIELD
SHIFT MORE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST AREA.

LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH TUE...

SAT MORNING THERE APPEARS YET ANOTHER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
POSSIBLE WINTER PRECIP...THIS TIME ACROSS OUR FL ZONES ACCORDING TO
THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 06Z DGEX AND NOW THE
12Z GFS WHICH ALSO SLOWS SHUNTING OF FRONTAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
FRI NIGHT/SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INCLUDING THE 850MB-700 MB
LAYER 1300 M ISOHYPSE AND THE 1000-850MB LAYER 1540 M ISOHYPSE WILL
POSITION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...THE LATTER ROUGHLY FROM SGJ-GNV
AND THE FORMER AS FAR SOUTH AS DAB. IN ADDITION THE 850MB 0 DEG
ISOTHERM POSITIONS ACROSS OUR FL ZONES BETWEEN THE 2 CRITICAL
THICKNESS CONTOURS...ALONG WITH 1000-850MB RHS AROUND 90%. ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS TREND TOWARD A POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN
PRECIP...LIKELY FLURRIES...ACROSS OUR SOME PORTION OF OUR FL CWA SAT
MORNING (GA ZONES LOOK TOO DRY). STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO OR FORECAST PRODUCTS...BUT
WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE AFD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 12Z GFS SLOWING
DOWN THE MOISTURE FIELD.
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Quoting IKE:
Bye-bye snow chances....

From Tallahassee office....

"SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...INDUCING VERY WEAK GULF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME...THE LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND WILL FORECAST ALL RAIN."


About time they took note of the elevated warm air advection
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Quoting IKE:
Bye-bye snow chances....

From Tallahassee office....

"SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...INDUCING VERY WEAK GULF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME...THE LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND WILL FORECAST ALL RAIN."


Eh, we got 3 months of below average winter temps. I'd say at least part or parts of N Florida gets at least flurry.
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Quoting LongStrangeTrip:


You are so right. Unfortunately, fewer CONUS landfalls in the last few years will also breed complacency. Possible exception would be Katrina survivors; I don't think they'll ever forget, or risk their lives a 2nd time around. I know it's etched in my brain, and we got off light.


The meteorologist from Brownsville, TX to Bar Harbor, ME need to emphasize the importance of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Prepardness, over and over and over, until people get it. The Katrina scenario was very, very sad, unbelievable, painful, and it made me and millions on Americans wail and cry. There has to be a way to prevent that from happening again!

Guam is regularly hit by massive, major typhoons. They build their homes out of cinder-blocks cemented into the ground. Fatalities and injuries are few and far in between.

However, human nature has people say, "It won't happen to me"! Yeah, I said the same thing in Arlington, TX, a real bad severe thunderstorm won't affect me.

Until I spent 3 hrs in utter terror with 115MPH wind gusts, that roared like a jet engine filling the air, torrential downpours, hail and a EF-1 tornado 1 mile from my house. Whenever I hear of a Severe T-Storm or Tornado Warning for Tarrant Co, TX, betcha I'm ready for it!!
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Quoting presslord:



I know that's not true...there have been times when I had $100 worth of bourbon in me...


LOL...you and me both. I read in 1974 that the materials in the human body were worth $.98 (not including the water), Makers Mark intake not withstanding
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Anyone bored who can and/or is willing to explain how this system is going to set up? I should probably just look back through the posts, but surely someone would enjoy explaining it again :P If you can post any graphics, that would be equally great. Thank you :)
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47. IKE
Bye-bye snow chances....

From Tallahassee office....

"SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...INDUCING VERY WEAK GULF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME...THE LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND WILL FORECAST ALL RAIN."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting largeeyes:
The value of life would be much lower in the medical field. Read an article about taking out a persons organs so that non-operable cancers could be operated on and then reinserting the organs. Problem is this is a 24-48 hours operation with many surgeons and assts needed. Question was, is all that effort/time/use of resources worth it?


The biggest issue here is potential; while few of us ever reach our full potential, would Einstein, if he were doing Physics today, be worth 5.8 million? Likely far more, given the fiscal bounties harvested from his work...the same applies to your hypothetical patient; if that patient were to survive and create or discover something like say, highly inexspensive but high yield solar panel technology, would the resources have been worth it?

Okay, I know, I went way out on a philosophical limb there and these calculations were meant as a baseline...
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Quoting SQUAWK:
I seem to remember reading somewhere that a human was worth about 78 cents in raw materials. Different perspective.



I know that's not true...there have been times when I had $100 worth of bourbon in me...
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Afternoon all. We finally hit 70 today (didn't think we would make it...) but it is pretty windy. I'm hiding out from the weather as much as possible this week, especially if we see another drop in temperature at the end of this week.
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Quoting JeffMasters:

In order to determine the value of life-saving scientific research and government regulations, economists and organizations like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) study statistics of what people are willing to pay to avoid certain risks, and what extra money employers pay their workers to take on additional risks. This data comes primarily from payroll statistics, but opinion surveys also play a role. In the year 2004, EPA valued an American life at $8 million. EPA cut the value of a life by 8% that year, and a further 3% in May 2008, making the economic value of a life $6.9 million in today's dollars. The Department of Transportation gives a lower figure of a life as being worth $5.8 million.

Jeff Masters


What do they not do statistics on these days.
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I seem to remember reading somewhere that a human was worth about 78 cents in raw materials. Different perspective.
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Dr. Masters...this is one of your most interesting posts ever...
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Quoting largeeyes:
The value of life would be much lower in the medical field. Read an article about taking out a persons organs so that non-operable cancers could be operated on and then reinserting the organs. Problem is this is a 24-48 hours operation with many surgeons and assts needed. Question was, is all that effort/time/use of resources worth it?


Well, maybe not for me.

BUT, for my grandkids? Holy cow, just ask ANY of the grandma's on this blog...and prepare yourself...could bring out the she-devil force in full...poor Luke wouldn't stand a chance in Hell or anywhere else!!
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Quoting tornadodude:
4-7 inches of snow for me!! (: (: (:


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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