NHC increases hurricane forecast lead times

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on January 05, 2010

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced today that beginning with the 2010 hurricane season, their hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for the U.S. coast will be extended in time by an additional 12 hours. Warnings will now be issued 36 hours in advance instead of 24 hours, and watches will be issued 48 hours in advance, instead of 36 hours. The increase in lead time for watches and warnings has been made possible by the tremendous improvement in hurricane track forecasts, which have improved by over 50% in the past twenty years (Figure 1). "With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life-saving decisions regarding evacuations", said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, in today's press release.


Figure 1. Average track errors for NHC Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecasts issued between 1990 - 2008. Track errors have improved by over 50% in the past 20 years. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Commentary
NHC has been debating for a number of years how best to "invest" the gains accrued from the steady improvement in hurricane track forecasts. One obvious savings from these better hurricane forecasts has come from the reduced evacuation costs. When a hurricane warning is issued 24 hours before the expected arrival of hurricane-force winds at the coast, it costs approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina coast (Whitehead, 2003). According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the length of coast warned decreased significantly in the past decade. During the decade of the 1990s, the average length of a hurricane warning was 455 miles, but that fell to just 335 miles between 2000 - 2006. Thus, an average of 120 fewer miles of coast were warned, at an average savings of $120 million per hurricane warning issuance. During this period, 17 storms requiring 25 hurricane warnings occurred. If the costs of coastal evacuations are indeed $1 million per mile, the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 - 2006 resulted in savings of $3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.

However, the new increased lead times for hurricane watches and warnings will lead to an increase in the length of coast warned, due to the higher uncertainties in hurricane tracks at longer forecast lead times. Between 2004 - 2008, approximately 25% of the coast that was placed under a hurricane warning actually received hurricane force winds; this percentage was 20% for areas placed under a hurricane watch. These percentages will decline with the new increased watch and warning lead times, costing money in unnecessary evacuations, and leading to increased complacency in the warned population due to too much "crying wolf".

Balanced against these increased costs is the potential disastrous loss of life should a hurricane hit an unprepared, heavily populated shoreline. With the U.S. population continuing to increase rapidly in coastal regions, the time needed to evacuate vulnerable populated regions is increasing. For example, evacuation times for the major urban areas of Texas are 28 - 34 hours for a major hurricane. Though the costs of overwarning the coast is significant, the savings in both human lives and dollars from increased warning times should outweigh these costs. In the 2002 book, Hurricane: Coping With Disaster, Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former director of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, analyzed hurricane death statistics. In 1950, about 70 U.S. residents died per year in hurricanes. In the 50 years since, the coastal population expanded by a factor of 3.2, so if we were managing the hurricane problem the way we did in 1950, we would be losing about 220 people a year. The long-term average is still about twenty per year, not including the deaths due to the levee failures during Katrina. That means we're preventing about 200 deaths per year compared with 1950. How much are these saved lives worth? A life, is, of course, priceless, but in the cold world of economics, the value of life-saving scientific research and government regulations is estimated using statistics of what people are willing to pay to avoid certain risks, and what extra money employers pay their workers to take on additional risks. This data comes primarily from payroll statistics, but opinion surveys also play a role. In 2004, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) valued an American life at $8 million. EPA cut the value of a life by 8% that year, and a further 3% in May 2008, making the economic value of a life $6.9 million in today's dollars. The Department of Transportation gives a lower figure of a life as being worth $5.8 million. Using this number implies a savings of about $1.2 billion per year for the 200 lives saved per year by better hurricane warnings and evacuations. Today's decision by NHC to increase warning times should continue this trend of saving lives, which will also provide considerable monetary benefit. Despite the increased costs and dangers of "crying wolf" too often due to overwarning the coast, I believe that the double value of saving lives--for both the intrinsic and monetary value of a human life--makes NHC's move of increasing warning and watch times the right call.

References
Whitehead, J.C., 2003: "One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of Hurricane evacuation", Ocean and Coastal Management 46, 1069.

I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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139. unf97
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Any thoughts on the short wave moving thru the south-west? Is that part of our southern storm system?


That shortwave still looked impressive on water vapor imagery this afternoon as it crossed earlier today from over the Northern Baja California peninsula now swinging over Mexico. If this piece of energy doesn't get flattened out by the confluent flow downstream and holds together, it could be a "trigger" for the GOM system in the next 36 hours or so.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting ElConando:


It would be crazy to have snow in the West Coast of Florida and not in N Florida.


It definitely would.
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Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
Any thoughts on the short wave moving thru the south-west? Is that part of our southern storm system?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
I am leaving my yard lights on and putting some heaters on around the pool. Last time we had a cold spell, the geckos stayed close to the lights. It might give the little critters enough heat to stay warm. It is cold.
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133. unf97
Quoting GBguy88:
Where is the low coming from that's supposed to generate the precip? Is it going to originate in the Gulf or over the US?


Apparently, the 12Z GFS model has slowed the progression of the moisture field associated with the arctic frontal boundary over Southern FL beginning Saturday evening. This model run is possibly suggesting that rotating piece(s)of energy (vort maxes) diving down the base of the extremely deep upper trough may hang up the frontal boundary. The JAX WFO mets brought this up this afternoon in their forecast discussion, which I posted earlier. Here is that extended portion of what they were discussing:


LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH TUE...

SAT MORNING THERE APPEARS YET ANOTHER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
POSSIBLE WINTER PRECIP...THIS TIME ACROSS OUR FL ZONES ACCORDING TO
THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 06Z DGEX AND NOW THE
12Z GFS WHICH ALSO SLOWS SHUNTING OF FRONTAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
FRI NIGHT/SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INCLUDING THE 850MB-700 MB
LAYER 1300 M ISOHYPSE AND THE 1000-850MB LAYER 1540 M ISOHYPSE WILL
POSITION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...THE LATTER ROUGHLY FROM SGJ-GNV
AND THE FORMER AS FAR SOUTH AS DAB. IN ADDITION THE 850MB 0 DEG
ISOTHERM POSITIONS ACROSS OUR FL ZONES BETWEEN THE 2 CRITICAL
THICKNESS CONTOURS...ALONG WITH 1000-850MB RHS AROUND 90%. ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS TREND TOWARD A POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN
PRECIP...LIKELY FLURRIES...ACROSS OUR SOME PORTION OF OUR FL CWA SAT
MORNING (GA ZONES LOOK TOO DRY). STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO OR FORECAST PRODUCTS...BUT
WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE AFD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 12Z GFS SLOWING
DOWN THE MOISTURE FIELD
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting btwntx08:


Where is that?
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Where is the low coming from that's supposed to generate the precip? Is it going to originate in the Gulf or over the US?
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It has snowed on the West Coast of FL, flurries granted but it CAN happen. I've seen it for myself :)
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Question!, when it snowed in Miami. It was not all fun. Hundreds of millions of dollars of damage was reported. Was it because of the cold on its own or things freezing?

Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3782
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i guess i have to whip up a nice south easter storm for ya i have firer up the ultra sonic atomspheric wave generation device stand by lets see what this does snow you want snow you get


Not like West FL will be hit with a massive Blizzard. That would be VERY freaky.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 18z showing snow for the west coast of Florida this coming Sunday. Take with a grain of salt



:D

Maybe I won't have to go to the panhandle after all...j/k

I'll look forward to this in the meantime:

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Breezy, with a northwest wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 18z showing snow for the west coast of Florida this coming Sunday. Take with a grain of salt



It would be crazy to have snow in the West Coast of Florida and not in N Florida.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3782
Nothing to do with the cold weather, but interesting! Link
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My tendency would be to stay south, but....gez, this isn't going to be fun, is it?
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Re:55
Quoting Floodman:
28.

Bord, complacency will happen regardless of false warnings...people that died in Katrina lived through Camille; remember the story out of that hurricane about the Hurricane party with one survivor, a young boy that was lucky enough to have been swept into a tree? There were still people in their homes in Pass Christian and the lower 9th when Katrina came through. Nature culls the herd in whatever way she sees fit. Me and mine? We run...I don't mind a road trip now and again...


Fight or flight, always a tough decision. You have your "rabbit syndrome" where they hide until you are upon them, making them easy prey. Sometimes it is better to fight then get shot in the back. I still think of the Hurricane Floyd twist of fate: if it had come ashore and crossed the peninsula tens of thousands would have been caught on the Interstates and the Beeatcheline trying to escape.

But there is never any shame in running so you can live to fight another day, just so you choose your fights wisely.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Gotta love everyone wishing for snow,be careful what you wish for.
i guess i have to whip up a nice south easter storm for ya i have firer up the ultra sonic atomspheric wave generation device stand by lets see what this does snow you want snow you get
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"Quoting largeeyes:
I am driving from eastern NC to Cincinnati on Friday starting around 11am. Looks like we may pick up some snow sometime during the drive. When will this storm be more vetted so I can decide if I want to try to drive around it?


40 will be bad; what route are you taking?"

I'm not sure yet which route to take. I'd normally do 40-77 and then either 50 in ohio or 64 in KY over until 75. However, with the forecast, I'm not sure which way to go.
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Really would like to see some flurries here in the panhandle. Question though...Thursday night for Pensacola is saying "Chance of snow through the night. Chance of rain after midnight. Lows 23 to 28. North winds 15 to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph after midnight." Would it not stand to reason that if the temp is 25 degrees with a possibility of snow, that the precip after midnight would be snow as well? Seems odd that mid 20s would more likely support rain than snow. At the risk of sounding ignorant...
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GFS 18z showing snow for the west coast of Florida this coming Sunday. Take with a grain of salt

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Quoting IKE:


Go to...Link

Type in city and state on the upper left of the page. Hit go. Scroll to bottom of page on the right to a link...Forecast Discussion. Click it and it's there.


Thanks! Looks like we don't have one, it links to the Peachtree City one, which states that snow will not make it south of Atlanta.

EDIT: My bad, it said it will make it to Vidalia. WOO!
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116. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well if Mobile is capable of getting snow then I'm sure we'll get some. Hey, n00b question, but how I get to all these city discussions so I can find mine?


Go to...Link

Type in city and state in the upper left of the page. Hit go. Scroll to bottom of page on the right to a link...Forecast Discussion. Click it and it's there.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
zomg temp dropped .6 of a degree in 12 mins!!! ROFL...
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3782
Quoting NEwxguy:
Gotta love everyone wishing for snow,be careful what you wish for.


I don't mind as long as yellow is not included in that wish.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3782
Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
349 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN ARCTIC HIGH
CONTINUES TO BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
SEVERAL AREAS EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ALL INTERIOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST EXPERIENCING
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AIR RESIDENT OVER THE REGION WILL
ENABLE COLD RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH PASSES SOUTH. THEN A MIX OF
RAIN, LIGHT SLEET, AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOLLOWS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT, BUT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO ICE
MAY BE PRESENTED TO MOTORISTS, ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS, ON
FRIDAY MORNING. TIMING BASED ON ECMWF WHICH HAS IN OUR VIEW DONE THE
BEST WITH THIS WHOLE EVENT. A FIGURE, IN WHICH WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE, CAN BE OFFERED FOR ACCUMULATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...NO CHANGES TO NUMERICS. DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES
EAST. BEHIND THAT FEATURE ADDITIONAL BITTER COLD AIR IS REINFORCED
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
BRISK WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT AND 50S IN THE
DAY.


Well if Mobile is capable of getting snow then I'm sure we'll get some. Hey, n00b question, but how I get to all these city discussions so I can find mine?
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Not in a cloud in the sky tonight looking for temps to plummet.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3782
#106. I am NOT going to risk a BAN over your opinions or belief systems, that are valid to you. Any specific questions concerning my faith/belief system, feel FREE to WU mail me.

I am tracking the coldest Arctic outbreak to affect the USA since the late 1990's. Any other discussions concerning this matter, WU mail me. Peace, have a great day :0)!!
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110. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
349 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN ARCTIC HIGH
CONTINUES TO BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
SEVERAL AREAS EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ALL INTERIOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST EXPERIENCING
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AIR RESIDENT OVER THE REGION WILL
ENABLE COLD RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH PASSES SOUTH. THEN A MIX OF
RAIN, LIGHT SLEET, AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOLLOWS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT, BUT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO ICE
MAY BE PRESENTED TO MOTORISTS, ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS, ON
FRIDAY MORNING. TIMING BASED ON ECMWF WHICH HAS IN OUR VIEW DONE THE
BEST WITH THIS WHOLE EVENT. A FIGURE, IN WHICH WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE, CAN BE OFFERED FOR ACCUMULATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...NO CHANGES TO NUMERICS. DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES
EAST. BEHIND THAT FEATURE ADDITIONAL BITTER COLD AIR IS REINFORCED
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
BRISK WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT AND 50S IN THE
DAY.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Well the last time snow did any damage here was 1993... Maybe it's time again.. but certainly not with this storm. :)

Maybe an inch, which I'll still be happy with.
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Windchill is what the air feels like on bare skin. Animal's fur protects them somewhat,my sheltie has two layers of fur,but in extreme windchill animals are effected as much as humans,on their eyes and paws especially.
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#104, the only "stupid question" there is is when you do NOT ask a question.

Mammals, dogs, cats, horses are affected by the wind chill, just as humans. Those with a "heavier coat" are less affected by the cold, than short haired animals are.

"Cold blooded creatures" do not stand a chance in the cool/cold weather!
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Quoting Bordonaro:


God is love, not hate. If God made us, I know he can mold us and save us. Peace, enjoy this wild and crazy winter weather.


maybe god wishes he could squush us like cockroaches and start over
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Quoting stormobserver:
#64 Quasigeostrophic also posted on Dr. Rood's climate change blog that God hates Catholics and that all Catholics are going to hell. So I take his claims of Christianity with a grain of salt.


God is love, not hate. If God made us, I know he can mold us and save us. Peace, enjoy this wild and crazy winter weather.
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i have a stupid question maybe someone can help me figure it out... if wind chill is supposed to be the way the temperature feels when wind blows it against bare skin... are animals, such as horses or dogs, affected by wind chill since it is against fur and not bare skin? Also if you have on a coat, do you feel the wind chill temp or normal temp. or is this too stupid to even ask. haha
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Exactly. Many Southern Meteorologists are very good at forecasting Tropical systems and severe weather outbreaks. Not as good with snow, get ready for a "Southern Surprise", I feel it in my bones!!


Hope so, people get very hyped up in the south, like myself and people take it out on the meteorologists a ton when anything goes wrong with the forecast!
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Gotta love everyone wishing for snow,be careful what you wish for.


You got that right...
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Gotta love everyone wishing for snow,be careful what you wish for.


Exactly. Many Southern Meteorologists are very good at forecasting Tropical systems and severe weather outbreaks. Not as good with snow, get ready for a "Southern Surprise", I feel it in my bones!!
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100. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY COLD 7 DAYS AHEAD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FOR VERY
COLD READINGS ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF LOWS
GOING BELOW 15 AT SEVERAL PLACES AGAIN...A HARD FREEZE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
STRONG WILL DECREASE SOME FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW FREEZING FOR WED
NT...NOT QUITE AS LOW. SO A HARD FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS LOOKING TO RETURN FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS
LATE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF C AL. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED YET FOR WED NT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THU MORNING OUR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ARRIVING
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW AS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF C AL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO VENTURE MUCH ABOVE FREEZING. MAINLY S OF AN ALICEVILLE
TO TO JEMISON TO LAFAYETTE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
WHEN PRECIP BEGINS LOOKING AT MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX. AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP SOME
AND AIDE TO GET MANY LOCATIONS DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING. SNOW
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AL. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME
TO AN END. FOR FRI/FRI NT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF FLURRIES BUT NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF C AL.
LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS THE SRN HALF. AS YOU MOVE S...TO S OF I85
LESS THAN 1/2 OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH LESS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SE STARTING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND NOT AS MUCH SNOW...
WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE THEY FREEZE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE I85 AND S CORRIDOR UNTIL SUN. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO WET SURFACES
FREEZING UP.

ALTHOUGH THE SNOW ENDS FOR THE MOST PART BY EARLY FRI...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THEIR LOWEST ON FRI NT AND SAT NT WITH WIND
CHILLS POSSIBLY GOING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL BE A VERY BITTERLY
COLD SITUATION.

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON SUN WITH WEAKENING HIGH
AND SUGGESTION OF A CHANGING FLOW...THE MODELS TEND TO WARM THINGS
BACK UP CLIMATOLOGICALLY TOO SOON. SO HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND TO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Gotta love everyone wishing for snow,be careful what you wish for.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Thanks! Also just last hour I saw that on TWC's site on the forecast section that tomorrow night the snow would go all the way down to the FL panhandle. They just now lifted it all the way up to birmingham. Plus our chances were lowered by 10% on the WU. Even though apparently a second arctic air outbreak occurred, is it getting warmer?


The brief warm-up over the SE US, will be over on Thursday into Friday, when the "big blast" of Arctic air enters the Great Plains into North Central Mexico and eastward over the Deep South and FL.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Take a look at this article on this link, enjoy!!
Link


Thanks! Also just last hour I saw that on TWC's site on the forecast section that tomorrow night the snow would go all the way down to the FL panhandle. They just now lifted it all the way up to birmingham. Plus our chances were lowered by 10% on the WU. Even though apparently a second arctic air outbreak occurred, is it getting warmer?
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re. #92

I see where u r coming from. I suppose the new times would have more effects in areas in TX / FL, where gridlock for such events have increased radically with populations.

I'm really liking the idea that NHC has sufficient confidence in their forecast models to say, "yeah, it's definitely coming thataway" a bit earlier. I'm also starting to think now about how this change could potentially affect forecasting procedures - i.e. what refinements could be added to reduce warning area even further.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22592
New Olreans better get snow, im getting depressed after the hype i was experiencing yesterday...hope things change back!
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73. Well, that gets my Irish-by-osmosis-with-with-hubby's-Clan Up!

I need a "Harp" -- do they serve those in hell? Why do I get the feeling I won't be too lonely down there. And please, Lord, please have mercy and have a separate hell for those who would choose my "right" path...

Whoops; now I have to start my "time-out" over, dang.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Any chance of snow for central GA?
I've read the forecasts but I want a blogger's perspective too because ive seen some pretty cool created maps here XD


Take a look at this article on this link, enjoy!!
Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Interesting topic in the blog this afternoon. I'll be interested to see how these new advisory lead times will play out in a real life setting. I see the advantages, and I see the reasoning behind it. So how will this affect planning and organization for disaster preparedness organizations, groups, and workers?


Well, the Air Force still lists their prep times in "HURCON" stages:

HURCON 5: Starts with beginning of season.
HURCON 4: 72 hours prior to 58mph winds.
HURCON 3: 48 hours prior.
HURCON 2: 24 hours prior.
HURCON 1: 12 hours prior.

Don't see a change there.

And I believe that N.O. still has the 50/40/30 hours for their planned evac times.

So I don't expect that there will be much change. Still takes the same amount of time to evac, no matter how much "warning/watch" time you have.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


We were under a freeze warning last night in Palm Beach County and barely got out of the 40's. Warmed to 59 here today, we'll see about that freeze.


Cloud free sky and (excellent radiational cooling) could provide a record night for us in dade/broward counties.
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Anyway, just saying 10 degrees is a BIG difference. I could give 2 you know what's but, I am sure the crop farmers put a lot of money and effort into protecting their crops when a warning is issued.
Any chance of snow for central GA?
I've read the forecasts but I want a blogger's perspective too because ive seen some pretty cool created maps here XD
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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