NHC increases hurricane forecast lead times

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on January 05, 2010

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced today that beginning with the 2010 hurricane season, their hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for the U.S. coast will be extended in time by an additional 12 hours. Warnings will now be issued 36 hours in advance instead of 24 hours, and watches will be issued 48 hours in advance, instead of 36 hours. The increase in lead time for watches and warnings has been made possible by the tremendous improvement in hurricane track forecasts, which have improved by over 50% in the past twenty years (Figure 1). "With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life-saving decisions regarding evacuations", said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, in today's press release.


Figure 1. Average track errors for NHC Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecasts issued between 1990 - 2008. Track errors have improved by over 50% in the past 20 years. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Commentary
NHC has been debating for a number of years how best to "invest" the gains accrued from the steady improvement in hurricane track forecasts. One obvious savings from these better hurricane forecasts has come from the reduced evacuation costs. When a hurricane warning is issued 24 hours before the expected arrival of hurricane-force winds at the coast, it costs approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina coast (Whitehead, 2003). According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the length of coast warned decreased significantly in the past decade. During the decade of the 1990s, the average length of a hurricane warning was 455 miles, but that fell to just 335 miles between 2000 - 2006. Thus, an average of 120 fewer miles of coast were warned, at an average savings of $120 million per hurricane warning issuance. During this period, 17 storms requiring 25 hurricane warnings occurred. If the costs of coastal evacuations are indeed $1 million per mile, the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 - 2006 resulted in savings of $3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.

However, the new increased lead times for hurricane watches and warnings will lead to an increase in the length of coast warned, due to the higher uncertainties in hurricane tracks at longer forecast lead times. Between 2004 - 2008, approximately 25% of the coast that was placed under a hurricane warning actually received hurricane force winds; this percentage was 20% for areas placed under a hurricane watch. These percentages will decline with the new increased watch and warning lead times, costing money in unnecessary evacuations, and leading to increased complacency in the warned population due to too much "crying wolf".

Balanced against these increased costs is the potential disastrous loss of life should a hurricane hit an unprepared, heavily populated shoreline. With the U.S. population continuing to increase rapidly in coastal regions, the time needed to evacuate vulnerable populated regions is increasing. For example, evacuation times for the major urban areas of Texas are 28 - 34 hours for a major hurricane. Though the costs of overwarning the coast is significant, the savings in both human lives and dollars from increased warning times should outweigh these costs. In the 2002 book, Hurricane: Coping With Disaster, Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former director of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, analyzed hurricane death statistics. In 1950, about 70 U.S. residents died per year in hurricanes. In the 50 years since, the coastal population expanded by a factor of 3.2, so if we were managing the hurricane problem the way we did in 1950, we would be losing about 220 people a year. The long-term average is still about twenty per year, not including the deaths due to the levee failures during Katrina. That means we're preventing about 200 deaths per year compared with 1950. How much are these saved lives worth? A life, is, of course, priceless, but in the cold world of economics, the value of life-saving scientific research and government regulations is estimated using statistics of what people are willing to pay to avoid certain risks, and what extra money employers pay their workers to take on additional risks. This data comes primarily from payroll statistics, but opinion surveys also play a role. In 2004, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) valued an American life at $8 million. EPA cut the value of a life by 8% that year, and a further 3% in May 2008, making the economic value of a life $6.9 million in today's dollars. The Department of Transportation gives a lower figure of a life as being worth $5.8 million. Using this number implies a savings of about $1.2 billion per year for the 200 lives saved per year by better hurricane warnings and evacuations. Today's decision by NHC to increase warning times should continue this trend of saving lives, which will also provide considerable monetary benefit. Despite the increased costs and dangers of "crying wolf" too often due to overwarning the coast, I believe that the double value of saving lives--for both the intrinsic and monetary value of a human life--makes NHC's move of increasing warning and watch times the right call.

References
Whitehead, J.C., 2003: "One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of Hurricane evacuation", Ocean and Coastal Management 46, 1069.

I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Anyways I have been in much colder weather, try Reading PA where one night got to 0. Oh and I could never forget the yr. me and the fam. went to spend xmas in Toronto when we woke up xmas morning there was white everywhere it had to be like a foot of snow. I even made a Snowman wish I had pics. to show u all.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TampaSpin:


Forgive me but, your analysis of the Southern Hemisphere is not accurate in my opinion.....Look at the graphic below..guess this kinda blows a hole in your thinking....



Notice the ENSO warm anomaly pool at the equator. The warmest part of that stands at about 3C above normal, making this a strong El Nino. However, notice the larger warm pool directly to the ENSO pool's south that is stronger than the original warm pool, actually being fed by the ENSO pool due to storms, and the coinciding cold water pool to its west. We are seeing cooler-than-normal water where the water is supposed to be warmer, and a large region of water warmer than normal where it's supposed to be cooler (northward circulation of the South Pacific gyre). This is indicative of slowing ocean currents.

Also, look at the diagonal warm path that stretches from the ENSO pool to the coast of Chile, right where the southeastern quadrant of the warm SE Pacific extension of the ENSO warm pool is beginning to cut off the current. This formed in mid-December. The cool anomalies are now cut in half, the southern part being depressed from the north and the northern part being closed in by warmer waters. Also notice the bulge in the southern pool toward Antarctica, and on the northeastern part of the South Pacific warm anomaly, the warmer water appears to be bulging toward the coolest part of the warm diagonal anomaly.

Also notice that if you follow the warm anomalies for the Gulf Stream, it takes a detour east of Newfoundland, then goes east of Labrador, west of Greenland, and is poised toward Jakobshavn Isbrae, which drains 6.5% of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Notice as well the warm anomaly west of Spitsbergen---this is where methane clathrate releases not quite reaching the surface were reported in 2009.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Does that mean portions of Pinellas County will experience a freeze?


If the FT. Myers area is to get that cold....expect ours in Tampa/St.Pete to be at least 5degs colder.
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Hey, cooliebai,

where r u these days? u were saying something about being cold enough to freeze, which doesn't sound like "home"..... lol
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Quoting Orcasystems:


From SWMBO, when I first told her about white Chili.... Ewwwww.

After reading recipe.... sounds good... but it ain't Chili. That being said... she makes me eat StirFrys and other "healthy c**p" so would not be surprised if she made it also.


Bro its really good. Let me know when she fixes it and how you like it......just watch how much habanera peppers you put in....that really kicks things up a notch....Kim seperates it into batchs.....some with and some without....she does not like hers hot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
729 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING. AS IT IS...MUCH OF THE
AREA DID NOT REACH 50 DEGREES TODAY. DEW POINTS CRASHED WELL
BELOW MET GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO WHAT THE MAV WAS SHOWING. WE
ALREADY SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING AT 7 PM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. ITS 36 DEGREES IN ONA...33 DEGREES AT THE
BROOKSVILLE FAWN...AND GAINESVILLE IS 31 DEGREES.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY COLDER THAN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST HAS SO
I HAVE LOWERED THEM SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS WELL...SO DROPPED
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AS LOW AS 17 DEGREES IN LEVY COUNTY...LOWER 20S
FOR PASCO COUNTY...AND MID 20S MUCH OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR.
I DO THINK DURATIONS OF MID 20S WILL NOT BE SO LONG AS TO REQUIRE
AN UPGRADE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM THE BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD...BUT PASCO COUNTY COULD BE CLOSE. IF IT DOES OCCUR
THERE...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COUNTY LINE NEAR HERNANDO.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST LEE COUNTY. BELIEVE THIS WOULD OCCUR OVER A VERY SMALL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE FREEZE WARNING THERE
AT THIS TIME.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN THE VERY COLD MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE. IF THE MAV
SHOULD VERIFY...HARD FREEZES WILL OCCUR SOUTHWARD THROUGH
HIGHLANDS AND DESOTO COUNTIES.

UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE OUT NO LATER THAN 830 THIS EVENING.

Does that mean portions of Pinellas County will experience a freeze?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting jrweatherman:
214. ElConando 1:24 AM GMT on January 06, 2010
Quoting jrweatherman:
The GFS has been and continues to want bring snow into Central Fl. on Friday night. The Arctic front will be through and a shortwave crossing the GOM - is it possible? Are we looking at 1977?


What happened in 1977?


We had snow - about an inch. I was 13 years old and the grass was covered.
Yeah that was the winter we slept in pajamas with feet (or socks), three blankets and a bedspread, and our folks had a space heater in their bedroom. [This was in Nassau.] Some people claim that it snowed in Grand Bahama, which is opposite Palm Beach county, but I think the official record shows hail. This current cold is about as close as we've gotten to that 1977 record stretch in the last 20+ years. It's hardly gotten below 60 here since 2000.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
all signs showing a possible climate shift been so for a while its happening and we dont have any idea as to the final outcome


Usually, when you talk about climate change, you talk about changes occuring every year. This is changing every hour, as ocean current patterns shift and storms form that change the course of the currents. I've been trying to get this mentioned on Wikipedia for the past few days, but none of that is possible without a Reliable source, for example a publication (not raw data) by a university, or a peer-reviwed journal (unlikely considering the pace of this). What I need are third-party, primary or secondary sources that directly refer to the current situation regarding global weather patterns. What about the NWS? I've been monitoring the SSTs for a month now, and it does appear that global ocean currents are slowing down, but I still don't have the concrete evidence. That's why I also need to hear the skeptical arguments, then use that information to support these findings.

Also notice the "bulge" in warm temperatures about halfway between Chile and New Zealand. It points the eastern end of the ENSO warm pool directly towards Antarctica. Another smaller "finger" of warm water is from the temperature collision zone off South America pointing toward the northern end of the Antarctic Peninsula.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
729 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING. AS IT IS...MUCH OF THE
AREA DID NOT REACH 50 DEGREES TODAY. DEW POINTS CRASHED WELL
BELOW MET GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO WHAT THE MAV WAS SHOWING. WE
ALREADY SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING AT 7 PM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. ITS 36 DEGREES IN ONA...33 DEGREES AT THE
BROOKSVILLE FAWN...AND GAINESVILLE IS 31 DEGREES.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY COLDER THAN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST HAS SO
I HAVE LOWERED THEM SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS WELL...SO DROPPED
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AS LOW AS 17 DEGREES IN LEVY COUNTY...LOWER 20S
FOR PASCO COUNTY...AND MID 20S MUCH OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR.
I DO THINK DURATIONS OF MID 20S WILL NOT BE SO LONG AS TO REQUIRE
AN UPGRADE TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM THE BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD...BUT PASCO COUNTY COULD BE CLOSE. IF IT DOES OCCUR
THERE...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COUNTY LINE NEAR HERNANDO.

WE COULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST LEE COUNTY. BELIEVE THIS WOULD OCCUR OVER A VERY SMALL
PORTION OF THE COUNTY SO WILL NOT EXTEND THE FREEZE WARNING THERE
AT THIS TIME.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
BETWEEN THE VERY COLD MAV AND THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE. IF THE MAV
SHOULD VERIFY...HARD FREEZES WILL OCCUR SOUTHWARD THROUGH
HIGHLANDS AND DESOTO COUNTIES.

UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE OUT NO LATER THAN 830 THIS EVENING.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Keep those fans for that hot chili....your wife might need it......LOL


From SWMBO, when I first told her about white Chili.... Ewwwww.

After reading recipe.... sounds good... but it ain't Chili. That being said... she makes me eat StirFrys and other "healthy c**p" so would not be surprised if she made it also.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting jrweatherman:
214. ElConando 1:24 AM GMT on January 06, 2010
Quoting jrweatherman:
The GFS has been and continues to want bring snow into Central Fl. on Friday night. The Arctic front will be through and a shortwave crossing the GOM - is it possible? Are we looking at 1977?


What happened in 1977?


We had snow - about an inch. I was 13 years old and the grass was covered.


That's not all either check this outLink
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Looking at the map of the pole, I notice first that the hotter temps seemed placed over the Pacific and the Indian subcontinent. This isn't surprising given the el nino currently in play. I also notice some cooler temps along north Africa, though without the appropriate background info it's hard to say whether such cool temps are abnormal.

The thing that gets me about this current cold weather is that three weeks ago we couldn't buy a 69 in Nassau, when that is around our normal night time temp in Dec. Even if this trend lasts for another 5 - 10 days, we are still likely to end up with an above average winter temperature-wise. [I think the cold here seems particularly chilly simply in contrast to last month's much warmer temperatures.]

I agree with the people who are seeing the climate shift as a global phenomenon, the type which on previous occoasions our society was not scientifically prepared to document. Whether or not it is viewed as a "disaster" scenario, I certainly think a lot of attention should be paid to climatic modulations over the next 50 years.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I sure hope so.. or we are going to have to wait a few weeks... and have KOG hookup a few more fans and try again.


Keep those fans for that hot chili....your wife might need it......LOL
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


old school chili has no beans according to my father. recipe sounds yummy.

tonight's menu spice n sweet shrimp with brown rice and carrots!

is it snowing in fl yet?



I sure hope so.. or we are going to have to wait a few weeks... and have KOG hookup a few more fans and try again.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
like the old sayin goes
we ain't seen nothing yet


we ain't heard nothin yet.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


If you're talking about global warming, then I'm blaming the recent cold snap over North America, Europe and Asia directly on global warming. The ocean currents are suddenly slowing down (I still need that reliable source!), and the usual "floodgates" on the Arctic air are letting up, allowing cold air to sink over the continental landmasses and the warm air is moving over the Arctic.

In the Southern Hemisphere, temperatures are indeed warming, and this is contributing to the slowdown of currents, especially the cold upwelling of the Humboldt Current while the warmest part of the El Nino warm pool is still located in the Central Western Pacific:



Notice the Humboldt Current's 19C line retreating southward, and the 20C line is close to being closed up from the Peruvian Coast and from its west. Usually, El Nino just disrupts the current from the north via the Equator, but now it's able to do it from the warm pool's southeastern quadrant while the concentrated warm area is actually much farther west than usual. If the Current is completely cut off, then the global Thermohaline will be severely affected.

In the North Atlantic, the Gulf Stream has been recently forming warm and cold eddies, taking shortcut paths, and reviving itself again. However, a good indication that the Gulf stream is diverting itself is the warmer water south of Bermuda, the relatively warm water east of Newfoundland, and the shrinking of the 8C area west of Norway, all while the pool of abnormal warmth west of Spitsbergen has expanded.

In the western Indian Ocean, the warm pool near Madagascar has warmed significantly in the past few days.


Forgive me but, your analysis of the Southern Hemisphere is not accurate in my opinion.....Look at the graphic below..guess this kinda blows a hole in your thinking....

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214. ElConando 1:24 AM GMT on January 06, 2010
Quoting jrweatherman:
The GFS has been and continues to want bring snow into Central Fl. on Friday night. The Arctic front will be through and a shortwave crossing the GOM - is it possible? Are we looking at 1977?


What happened in 1977?


We had snow - about an inch. I was 13 years old and the grass was covered.
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like the old sayin goes
we ain't seen nothing yet
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting presslord:
Tampa...that chili sounds wunderful...I have passed the recipe on to the cook...


It is kick butt......but watch the hot stuff....it has a kick...if you understand.....LOL
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


If you're talking about global warming, then I'm blaming the recent cold snap over North America, Europe and Asia directly on global warming. The ocean currents are suddenly slowing down (I still need that reliable source!), and the usual "floodgates" on the Arctic air are letting up, allowing cold air to sink over the continental landmasses and the warm air is moving over the Arctic.

In the Southern Hemisphere, temperatures are indeed warming, and this is contributing to the slowdown of currents, especially the cold upwelling of the Humboldt Current while the warmest part of the El Nino warm pool is still located in the Central Western Pacific:



Notice the Humboldt Current's 19C line retreating southward, and the 20C line is close to being closed up from the Peruvian Coast and from its west. Usually, El Nino just disrupts the current from the north via the Equator, but now it's able to do it from the warm pool's southeastern quadrant while the concentrated warm area is actually much farther west than usual. If the Current is completely cut off, then the global Thermohaline will be severely affected.

In the North Atlantic, the Gulf Stream has been recently forming warm and cold eddies, taking shortcut paths, and reviving itself again. However, a good indication that the Gulf stream is diverting itself is the warmer water south of Bermuda, the relatively warm water east of Newfoundland, and the shrinking of the 8C area west of Norway, all while the pool of abnormal warmth west of Spitsbergen has expanded.

In the western Indian Ocean, the warm pool near Madagascar has warmed significantly in the past few days.
all signs showing a possible climate shift been so for a while its happening and we dont have any idea as to the final outcome
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
nic hot weather for FL with highs in the 80s



LOL LOL LOL
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Tampa...that chili sounds wunderful...I have passed the recipe on to the cook...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
In the Southern hemisphere? Over Asia?


If you're talking about global warming, then I'm blaming the recent cold snap over North America, Europe and Asia directly on global warming. The ocean currents are suddenly slowing down (I still need that reliable source!), and the usual "floodgates" on the Arctic air are letting up, allowing cold air to sink over the continental landmasses and the warm air is moving over the Arctic.

In the Southern Hemisphere, temperatures are indeed warming, and this is contributing to the slowdown of currents, especially the cold upwelling of the Humboldt Current while the warmest part of the El Nino warm pool is still located in the Central Western Pacific:



Notice the Humboldt Current's 19C line retreating southward, and the 20C line is close to being closed up from the Peruvian Coast and from its west. Usually, El Nino just disrupts the current from the north via the Equator, but now it's able to do it from the warm pool's southeastern quadrant while the concentrated warm area is actually much farther west than usual. If the Current is completely cut off, then the global Thermohaline will be severely affected.

In the North Atlantic, the Gulf Stream has been recently forming warm and cold eddies, taking shortcut paths, and reviving itself again. However, a good indication that the Gulf stream is diverting itself is the warmer water south of Bermuda, the relatively warm water east of Newfoundland, and the shrinking of the 8C area west of Norway, all while the pool of abnormal warmth west of Spitsbergen has expanded.

In the western Indian Ocean, the warm pool near Madagascar has warmed significantly in the past few days.
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top of the world view

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Quoting jrweatherman:
The GFS has been and continues to want bring snow into Central Fl. on Friday night. The Arctic front will be through and a shortwave crossing the GOM - is it possible? Are we looking at 1977?


What happened in 1977?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
The GFS has been and continues to want bring snow into Central Fl. on Friday night. The Arctic front will be through and a shortwave crossing the GOM - is it possible? Are we looking at 1977?
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Coldest Orange Bowl ever. Must be something to that drudge report article.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
Curry lamb, white rice, great stuff.

wind chill here is about the same as northern coast of CA....
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210. unf97
Currently 33.6 degrees at 8:15 p.m.

Many of us will have 12hrs or more of freezing temps tonight into tomorrow morning.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, now that doesn't sound half bad... but.. its not chili, at least not up here.


old school chili has no beans according to my father. recipe sounds yummy.

tonight's menu spice n sweet shrimp with brown rice and carrots!

is it snowing in fl yet?

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Quoting Cochise111:
No mention at all in the "Weather God"'s current post concerning the coldest weather in decades all around the world. Guess it must not be that cold in Ann Arbor. Where's that global warming?
In the Southern hemisphere? Over Asia?
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Right down by the Gulf!
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Its already 38deg in Tampa....with a 29 forecast.....i expect we will see at least 29 tonite and probably maybe 27 with it only 8pm
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latest runs up on my blog


Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Forecast for Coastal Volusia County

Updated: 3:48 PM EST on January 5, 2010
Hard freeze warning in effect from 11 PM this evening to 9 am EST Wednesday...
Wind chill warning in effect from 11 PM this evening to 9 am EST Wednesday...
Freeze watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning...
Tonight
Clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Wind chill readings 14 to 17.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
203. jipmg
The cooling is slowing to a degree an hour..

we wont dip in the 30s (miami) if it stays that way, I think it may be because the dew point is in the 40s..

its 51 right now, wind "WNW at 5mph" clear skies.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


WHITE LIGHTNING CHICKEN CHILI

4 boneless skinless chicken breasts, cubed
□ 2 cans great northern beans, rinsed
□ 1 whole white onion, diced
□ 1 cup frozen white corn
□ 1 yellow bell pepper, diced
□ 1 ½ cups fresh mushrooms, sliced
□ 1 bulb fresh garlic, minced
□ 6 habanera peppers
□ ½ cup white wine
□ 1 can chicken broth
□ 2 tsp. cumin powder
□ 1 tsp. coriander powder
□ 1 tbsp. ground white pepper
□ 3 tbsp. olive oil
□ 1 lime, squeezed for juice
□ ½ cup sour cream
□ ½ cup shredded pepper jack cheese

Heat olive oil in large sauté pan to medium-high heat, and add garlic, onions, and chicken. Sauté for 10-15 minutes or until chicken is no longer pink.
In a large Dutch oven add chicken broth, cumin, coriander, ground white pepper, lime juice, habanera peppers (if mild chili is preferred, use fewer hot peppers, as desired - the quantity given is very hot!), and bring to a boil. Reduce heat to medium, cover with lid, and let simmer for 10-15 minutes. Add the chicken, garlic, and onion mixture, plus the corn, beans, yellow bell pepper, mushrooms, and white wine.

Cover and let simmer for approximately 30-35 minutes.

When finished, remove from heat and stir in the sour cream. Garnish with the shredded pepper jack cheese, and serve with crusty garlic bread


Ok, now that doesn't sound half bad... but.. its not chili, at least not up here.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting weatherbro:


Yep...This weekends cold spell should be twice as powerful-Comparable to 1983, 85, and 89'.

A few models want to briefly moderate temps by middle week(ahead of another southern streamer: another chance for snow). Only to be shot right back down by yet another arctic airmass. I don't expect a sustained thaw(back to normal) for at least three weeks.

December 1983 was the year I got pregnant with my son. It was the first snow of the winter and I recall the winter of 1984 was very cold!
Wonder how many babies will be born due to the cold snaps...
Record Report
Statement as of 4:49 PM EST on January 5, 2010
... Record cool maximum temperature broken at Orlando 47 today (old record was 48 set in '99).
Body heat is cheap up front; you pay later! LOL.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


WTH is White Chili??


WHITE LIGHTNING CHICKEN CHILI

4 boneless skinless chicken breasts, cubed
□ 2 cans great northern beans, rinsed
□ 1 whole white onion, diced
□ 1 cup frozen white corn
□ 1 yellow bell pepper, diced
□ 1 ½ cups fresh mushrooms, sliced
□ 1 bulb fresh garlic, minced
□ 6 habanera peppers
□ ½ cup white wine
□ 1 can chicken broth
□ 2 tsp. cumin powder
□ 1 tsp. coriander powder
□ 1 tbsp. ground white pepper
□ 3 tbsp. olive oil
□ 1 lime, squeezed for juice
□ ½ cup sour cream
□ ½ cup shredded pepper jack cheese

Heat olive oil in large sauté pan to medium-high heat, and add garlic, onions, and chicken. Sauté for 10-15 minutes or until chicken is no longer pink.
In a large Dutch oven add chicken broth, cumin, coriander, ground white pepper, lime juice, habanera peppers (if mild chili is preferred, use fewer hot peppers, as desired - the quantity given is very hot!), and bring to a boil. Reduce heat to medium, cover with lid, and let simmer for 10-15 minutes. Add the chicken, garlic, and onion mixture, plus the corn, beans, yellow bell pepper, mushrooms, and white wine.

Cover and let simmer for approximately 30-35 minutes.

When finished, remove from heat and stir in the sour cream. Garnish with the shredded pepper jack cheese, and serve with crusty garlic bread
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Quoting tornadodude:
4-7 inches of snow for me!! (: (: (:
Alright T-Dude, What is your forecast for us on the plateau. I know were in for some kind of windy snow.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Ewwwwww....
NO Beef??
NO Red Kidney Beans?

What kind of tree hugging tofu eating recipe is that.



Its got chicken or turkey. Geese.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
Quoting Cochise111:
No mention at all in the "Weather God"'s current post concerning the coldest weather in decades all around the world. Guess it must not be that cold in Ann Arbor. Where's that global warming?


Ahem, it's not all around the world, ask Australia, record heat.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting NRAamy:
It is known for its affluence and political conservatism

hahahahahahaha!!! "affluence"....yeah...sure.....

and we've got more tree huggers than San Francisco!


I see, in the sixties until 2004 the voting pattern was heavily republican. I guess the tree huggers came in droves from Dec 2004 to Nov 2008.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
It's not even 7 pm. Its already in the 20's
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Quoting aquak9:
poor orca...bet he never had grits'n'okra, either...

white chili is just like regular chili except it's made with chicken or turkey, and it's got no tomatoes in it, and white beans.

Tampaspin is LUCKY.


Ewwwwww....
NO Beef??
NO Red Kidney Beans?

What kind of tree hugging tofu eating recipe is that.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
182


I think its AG!
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poor orca...bet he never had grits'n'okra, either...

white chili is just like regular chili except it's made with chicken or turkey, and it's got no tomatoes in it, and white beans.

Tampaspin is LUCKY.
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This is very unusual for me to say...and not particularly easy....but...

GO JACKETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.