NHC increases hurricane forecast lead times

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on January 05, 2010

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced today that beginning with the 2010 hurricane season, their hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for the U.S. coast will be extended in time by an additional 12 hours. Warnings will now be issued 36 hours in advance instead of 24 hours, and watches will be issued 48 hours in advance, instead of 36 hours. The increase in lead time for watches and warnings has been made possible by the tremendous improvement in hurricane track forecasts, which have improved by over 50% in the past twenty years (Figure 1). "With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life-saving decisions regarding evacuations", said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, in today's press release.


Figure 1. Average track errors for NHC Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecasts issued between 1990 - 2008. Track errors have improved by over 50% in the past 20 years. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Commentary
NHC has been debating for a number of years how best to "invest" the gains accrued from the steady improvement in hurricane track forecasts. One obvious savings from these better hurricane forecasts has come from the reduced evacuation costs. When a hurricane warning is issued 24 hours before the expected arrival of hurricane-force winds at the coast, it costs approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina coast (Whitehead, 2003). According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the length of coast warned decreased significantly in the past decade. During the decade of the 1990s, the average length of a hurricane warning was 455 miles, but that fell to just 335 miles between 2000 - 2006. Thus, an average of 120 fewer miles of coast were warned, at an average savings of $120 million per hurricane warning issuance. During this period, 17 storms requiring 25 hurricane warnings occurred. If the costs of coastal evacuations are indeed $1 million per mile, the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 - 2006 resulted in savings of $3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.

However, the new increased lead times for hurricane watches and warnings will lead to an increase in the length of coast warned, due to the higher uncertainties in hurricane tracks at longer forecast lead times. Between 2004 - 2008, approximately 25% of the coast that was placed under a hurricane warning actually received hurricane force winds; this percentage was 20% for areas placed under a hurricane watch. These percentages will decline with the new increased watch and warning lead times, costing money in unnecessary evacuations, and leading to increased complacency in the warned population due to too much "crying wolf".

Balanced against these increased costs is the potential disastrous loss of life should a hurricane hit an unprepared, heavily populated shoreline. With the U.S. population continuing to increase rapidly in coastal regions, the time needed to evacuate vulnerable populated regions is increasing. For example, evacuation times for the major urban areas of Texas are 28 - 34 hours for a major hurricane. Though the costs of overwarning the coast is significant, the savings in both human lives and dollars from increased warning times should outweigh these costs. In the 2002 book, Hurricane: Coping With Disaster, Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former director of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, analyzed hurricane death statistics. In 1950, about 70 U.S. residents died per year in hurricanes. In the 50 years since, the coastal population expanded by a factor of 3.2, so if we were managing the hurricane problem the way we did in 1950, we would be losing about 220 people a year. The long-term average is still about twenty per year, not including the deaths due to the levee failures during Katrina. That means we're preventing about 200 deaths per year compared with 1950. How much are these saved lives worth? A life, is, of course, priceless, but in the cold world of economics, the value of life-saving scientific research and government regulations is estimated using statistics of what people are willing to pay to avoid certain risks, and what extra money employers pay their workers to take on additional risks. This data comes primarily from payroll statistics, but opinion surveys also play a role. In 2004, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) valued an American life at $8 million. EPA cut the value of a life by 8% that year, and a further 3% in May 2008, making the economic value of a life $6.9 million in today's dollars. The Department of Transportation gives a lower figure of a life as being worth $5.8 million. Using this number implies a savings of about $1.2 billion per year for the 200 lives saved per year by better hurricane warnings and evacuations. Today's decision by NHC to increase warning times should continue this trend of saving lives, which will also provide considerable monetary benefit. Despite the increased costs and dangers of "crying wolf" too often due to overwarning the coast, I believe that the double value of saving lives--for both the intrinsic and monetary value of a human life--makes NHC's move of increasing warning and watch times the right call.

References
Whitehead, J.C., 2003: "One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of Hurricane evacuation", Ocean and Coastal Management 46, 1069.

I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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784. 1900hurricane 5:56 PM GMT on January 06, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I didn't know you young'uns liked the classics like Ferris Bueller :) That came out summer between my jr and sr year in HS! :)

You mean we aren't supposed to like movies that are older than we are? :P

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Who you talkin' 'bout, Willis?

Love, Nana
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Quoting atmoaggie:

That sounds lovely.


Here's the link if anyone in interested.
Link
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting unf97:


Well, it's called the Arctic Express, which has cruised its way all the way down the peninsula of Florida. LOL

Guess what? Old man winter has sent this air mass here to stay all the way through this upcoming weekend.

Yeah, this next blast from Siberia is sending a 1050mb High Pressure progged by the models to come deep down into the CONUS by this weekend. Be prepared more potential record breaking cold this weekend.




Local NWS seems to think this next one will be colder.

Hopefully the models figure out the land breeze issue for SEFL. Past couple warnings for my area could have been watches.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FROM PBI TO AROUND WESTON AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE REDLANDS THEN ACROSS THE EVERGLADES AND INTO THE
GOLDEN GATE AREA EAST OF APF. I HAVE GREAT SUSPICION THAT THIS IS
TOO COLD ONCE AGAIN AND THE MODELS AREN`T DEALING WITH THE LAND
BREEZE WELL...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Mine....

1/3/10....27.9.
1/4/10....28.0.
1/5/10....22.9.
1/6/10....22.3.


Mine

1/1/10...6
1/2/10...0
1/3/10...-2
1/4/10...6
1/5/10...6
1/6/10...8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
785. unf97
Temp now 43.7 degrees here at my home in Jax.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I didn't know you young'uns liked the classics like Ferris Bueller :) That came out summer between my jr and sr year in HS! :)

You mean we aren't supposed to like movies that are older than we are? :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


I just read a story on CNBC that people in the UK are buying cheap books from second hand stores to burn for heating their homes. The price of gas is so high there, many are unable to use it for heat any more.

That sounds lovely.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
782. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
37 at noon here!

Our lows this week

1/3 27.0
1/4 24.6
1/5 26.1
1/6 25.2


Mine....

1/3/10....27.9.
1/4/10....28.0.
1/5/10....22.9.
1/6/10....22.3.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
It's finally reached 50 degrees in Tampa. Still pretty cold though with the wind.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
780. unf97
Quoting mara0921:
Holy Cow.. Im at work in Coral Springs,FL. Took my little digital thermometor outside. Its 12:40 PM and its 47.3 F and you can see your breath... Its almost 1 PM.. Whats up with that!


Well, it's called the Arctic Express, which has cruised its way all the way down the peninsula of Florida. LOL

Guess what? Old man winter has sent this air mass here to stay all the way through this upcoming weekend.

Yeah, this next blast from Siberia is sending a 1050mb High Pressure progged by the models to come deep down into the CONUS by this weekend. Be prepared more potential record breaking cold this weekend.


Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
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...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

* ROADS MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS DUE TO SNOW AND DRIFTS...BLOWING
SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS.

* ACCUMULATIONS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.


* THE STORM WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL DURING THURSDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING
RUSH HOUR. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY AND
TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE TREACHEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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43F on Johns Island, SC...
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12 GENS zdp Image Loop
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The big cold shot is on its way to SETX...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING BY SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH OF A BRYAN TO CROCKETT LINE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF
AN EDNA TO HOUSTON LINE AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES
EARLY FRIDAY.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-070130-
/O.UPG.KHGX.HZ.A.0001.100108T0300Z-100109T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.HZ.W.0002.100108T0300Z-100110T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1130 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO
9 AM CST SUNDAY. THE HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING BY SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH OF A BRYAN TO CROCKETT LINE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF
AN EDNA TO HOUSTON LINE AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES
EARLY FRIDAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY FAIL TO REACH 32
DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY WARM INTO THE MID 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO HOUSTON TO CLEVELAND LINE AND IN THE LOWER 20S SOUTH
OF THIS LINE. EVEN THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL ENDURE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S. SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIKELY ENDURE 48
TO 60 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

FURTHER DETAILS ON THE DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PROVIDED AS THE EVENT NEARS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
SENSITIVE PLANTS AND ANIMALS WILL REQUIRE PROTECTION. A HARD
FREEZE CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO EXPOSED PIPES. BEGIN MAKING PLANS FOR
FOLKS THAT MIGHT NEED A LITTLE EXTRA HELP...ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY
AND THE VERY YOUNG. EXTRA PROTECTIVE CLOTHING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
ANYONE EXPECTED TO BE OUTDOORS AT THESE TIMES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR COMMERCIAL
RADIO FOR THE LATEST ON THIS EVENT...OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/HOUSTON.

&&

HERE ARE SOME OF THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SPELL.

IAH HOU GLS CLL

8TH (FRI)
- RECORD LOW 19/1996 - 21/1976 - 11/1886 - 15/1976
- RECORD LOW MAX 33/1988 - 33/1988 - 31/1886 - 33/1968

9TH (SAT)
- RECORD LOW 19/1976 - 22/1962 - 15/1886 - 19/1962
- RECORD LOW MAX 34/1973 - 34/1973 - 35/1886 - 29/1973

10TH (SUN)
- RECORD LOW 18/1977 - 17/1962 - 18/1962 - 14/1962
- RECORD LOW MAX 27/1962 - 29/1962 - 26/1962 - 19/1962

&&

$$
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Quoting PcolaDan:
No fun in UK either.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


I just read a story on CNBC that people in the UK are buying cheap books from second hand stores to burn for heating their homes. The price of gas is so high there, many are unable to use it for heat any more.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

OK... I understand why you're considering changing majors...

Bueller?? Bueller??


Ferris Bueller :P
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Getting nice and warm here in SE TX, 55 degrees and felt like I needed to take my jacket off
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting tornadodude:
How To Properly Measure Snowfall

OK... I understand why you're considering changing majors...

Bueller?? Bueller??
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Fountain in Pensacola.



Welcome to Florida!! :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Holy Cow.. Im at work in Coral Springs,FL. Took my little digital thermometor outside. Its 12:40 PM and its 47.3 F and you can see your breath... Its almost 1 PM.. Whats up with that!
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Interesting from the mornings NWS discussion


THE END RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEP PAST SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRI EVENING OR
EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY EVEN BE COLDER
THAN THE ONE WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING! TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
WELL BELOW NORMAL SAT MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF
PULLING SOME MID TO HIGH LVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD
RIDGE POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A VERY ATYPICAL AND RAW S FL WINTER DAY
AND NIGHT...SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TO PUT IN
PERSPECTIVE WHAT THE ECMWF, DGEX, AND GFS ARE SPITTING OUT,
HISTORICAL 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1989
AND 1977 FREEZES AT MIA WERE...AROUND 1305M AND 1312M
RESPECTIVELY, AND THE AVERAGE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODELS
IS AROUND 1305M WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS MORNING THE
MODELS ARE ESTIMATING A THICKNESS OF AROUND 1323M. FORTUNATELY,
FARTHER ANALYSIS OF THESE MODELS INDICATE AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET, AKA CLOUD COVER, HOPEFULLY SLOWING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING,
HOWEVER THE CAA WILL LIKELY BE VERY STRONG UP TILL THAT MORNING...
AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS COLD SUNDAY MORNING LASTING INTO MONDAY.

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Fountain in Pensacola.

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...ONE MORE COLD MORNING IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE A BRIEF
WARM-UP AND THEN ANOTHER POLAR PLUNGE FOR THE WEEKEND...


DISCUSSION...A DEEP TROF REMAINS BLOCKED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING WHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
CENTERED OVER N FL TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF CANADA AND DROPPING SOUTH WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS IN TOW IN THE FORM OF A 1050MB HIGH.


Reason why SFL is having a hard time reaching the freezing mark.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FROM PBI TO AROUND WESTON AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE REDLANDS THEN ACROSS THE EVERGLADES AND INTO THE
GOLDEN GATE AREA EAST OF APF. I HAVE GREAT SUSPICION THAT THIS IS
TOO COLD ONCE AGAIN AND THE MODELS AREN`T DEALING WITH THE LAND
BREEZE WELL...
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How To Properly Measure Snowfall
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Quoting presslord:


"...in an octopuss' garden...in the sea..."

Now that's freaky.
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nuff said (China)

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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Dead Octopuses Wash Up on Portuguese Beach
By Lisa Abend, TIME Mag., Wed Jan 6, 5:10 am ET
The last paragraph is the most interesting, imho. Humans can be such barbarians.

There is one other option, however. In December 2007, Portuguese police confiscated 9.4 tons of cocaine in a shipment of frozen octopus from Venezuela. "I suppose it's possible that someone defrosted the animals, took out the cocaine, then threw their bodies overboard," says Weber. Still, like Oliveira, Weber is betting on a biological cause. "We've had swine flu, bird flu," he says, not completely in jest. "Why not octopus flu?"


"...in an octopuss' garden...in the sea..."
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Dead Octopuses Wash Up on Portuguese Beach
By Lisa Abend, TIME Mag., Wed Jan 6, 5:10 am ET
The last paragraph is the most interesting, imho. Humans can be such barbarians.

There is one other option, however. In December 2007, Portuguese police confiscated 9.4 tons of cocaine in a shipment of frozen octopus from Venezuela. "I suppose it's possible that someone defrosted the animals, took out the cocaine, then threw their bodies overboard," says Weber. Still, like Oliveira, Weber is betting on a biological cause. "We've had swine flu, bird flu," he says, not completely in jest. "Why not octopus flu?"
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Had a military exercise one year with wind chills about -75. Beginning of frostbite on my fingers. Caught it in time but wow did it hurt when they started warming up. After exercise hopped on plane to Pensacola. Was 75 here and humid. 150 degree difference. Could hardly breathe. lol cold front came through and got down to 40. I was only person in the area with shorts on. :)

Took some getting used to being there, but I actually enjoyed it. Looking for zero as a high for over a week. Got me a snowmobile. Flew in helicopter over a ground blizzard. Duck and goose hunted. But of course, I knew I would be leaving. :)


Yeah, after re-upping for combat through all of the Korean war, my old man got re-assigned to the Aleutians in 1953 (he's never told me why; I know he made sergeant AGAIN in '54)...he has some stories of -75 WC and -50 base temps. You'd think being on an island the water would help to moderate temperatures a little bit there, apparently not. One of the local mets here in DFW is calling this next outbreak a Sasketchewan Screamer...try being under a Siberian Screamer LOL
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No fun in UK either.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I've been rather pessimistic about his particular possibility over the last few days, and our NWS forecast agreed and went back to all rain.

Now our Thursday forecast changed to this for tomorrow:


I think there going to be a lot back and fourth with this next system, very complex set up. For a very large area.
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754. unf97
The current shortwave diving down out of the Northern Plains looks very impressive on satellite and radar presentations. I'm curious if it is stronger than what the models initially had progged in recent runs.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
I've been rather pessimistic about this particular possibility for frozen precip over the last few days, and our NWS forecast agreed and went back to all rain.

But, as of this morning, our Thursday forecast changed to this for tomorrow:
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Who keeps letting the AC unit run here in Wesley Chapel, Fl???? Ture it off!!!! UGHHHH
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Quoting Floodman:


Yeah man! I had a three day layover in Minot in '85; kept the truck running the whole time because deisel fuel starts to gel at about 15F; the temps were in the -20s during the day. We won't talk about wind chills...let's just say that I was wearing most of the clothes I brought on that trip the whole time...


Had a military exercise one year with wind chills about -75. Beginning of frostbite on my fingers. Caught it in time but wow did it hurt when they started warming up. After exercise hopped on plane to Pensacola. Was 75 here and humid. 150 degree difference. Could hardly breathe. lol cold front came through and got down to 40. I was only person in the area with shorts on. :)

Took some getting used to being there, but I actually enjoyed it. Looking for zero as a high for over a week. Got me a snowmobile. Flew in helicopter over a ground blizzard. Duck and goose hunted. But of course, I knew I would be leaving. :)
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Cramped on Land, Big Oil Bets at Sea
by Ben Casselman and Guy Chazan
(provided by the Wall St. Journal)
Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Boat damaged in anti-whaling clash in Antarctica
By ROHAN SULLIVAN, Associated Press Writer

Hubble telescope shows earliest photo of universe
Seth Borenstein, Ap Science Writer Tue Jan 5, 6:27 pm ET

Deep Freeze Has Town Covered in 55 Inches of Snow
Tue Jan 5, 12:31PM PT - ABC News 2:14 | 55099 views
ABC News Video; also covers other areas
John Berman visits Fulton, N.Y., where the snow just won't quit.

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Quoting IKE:


Impressive radar..shows it well.


pretty massive storm
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Quoting ElConando:
0 degrees wind chill for you Tornado dude, nice.


thats warm compared to what it has been :P
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746. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


Impressive radar..shows it well.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
its 12:08 and it is 37.7 degrees atm. Wonder if it will get past 40.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3754
Quoting PcolaDan:
Don't know how I ever survived this place.



Yeah man! I had a three day layover in Minot in '85; kept the truck running the whole time because deisel fuel starts to gel at about 15F; the temps were in the -20s during the day. We won't talk about wind chills...let's just say that I was wearing most of the clothes I brought on that trip the whole time...

Which is something I think should be mentioned here: in modern deisel fuel, the same rule still applies; winterizing gets you to -20, -25 before full on gel (deisel contains parrafin which starts to crytalize in silution at about 15F in untreated fuels); if you;ve ever had a deisel gel on you it's a bad business...slamander heaters (look like a jet engine) and plenty of patience is the only real cure.

There is an option to using fuel additives though: pump a little #1 deisel into your tank before the cold and it should lower the gel temp considerably. It's kind of 6 of one, etc. as it costs less than a nickel a gallon to winterize...
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This may sound dumb, but when is this all supposed to start setting up and becoming apparent on radar, etc? It seems awfully clear all across the Gulf, coast, etc. I know it's going to happen, I just have a hard time seeing it reaching any notable proportion in virtually no time at all...or at least by tomorrow night.
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0 degrees wind chill for you Tornado dude, nice.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3754
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Snow-itis is in FULL Swing here..LOL
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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 6, 10:54 am EST

Fair

11 °F
(-12 °C)
Humidity: 73 %
Wind Speed: SW 7 MPH
Barometer: 30.26" (1025.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 4 °F (-16 °C)
Wind Chill: 0 °F (-18 °C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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Mostly Cloudy
54 °F
Mostly Cloudy