NHC increases hurricane forecast lead times

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on January 05, 2010

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced today that beginning with the 2010 hurricane season, their hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for the U.S. coast will be extended in time by an additional 12 hours. Warnings will now be issued 36 hours in advance instead of 24 hours, and watches will be issued 48 hours in advance, instead of 36 hours. The increase in lead time for watches and warnings has been made possible by the tremendous improvement in hurricane track forecasts, which have improved by over 50% in the past twenty years (Figure 1). "With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life-saving decisions regarding evacuations", said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, in today's press release.


Figure 1. Average track errors for NHC Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecasts issued between 1990 - 2008. Track errors have improved by over 50% in the past 20 years. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Commentary
NHC has been debating for a number of years how best to "invest" the gains accrued from the steady improvement in hurricane track forecasts. One obvious savings from these better hurricane forecasts has come from the reduced evacuation costs. When a hurricane warning is issued 24 hours before the expected arrival of hurricane-force winds at the coast, it costs approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina coast (Whitehead, 2003). According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the length of coast warned decreased significantly in the past decade. During the decade of the 1990s, the average length of a hurricane warning was 455 miles, but that fell to just 335 miles between 2000 - 2006. Thus, an average of 120 fewer miles of coast were warned, at an average savings of $120 million per hurricane warning issuance. During this period, 17 storms requiring 25 hurricane warnings occurred. If the costs of coastal evacuations are indeed $1 million per mile, the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 - 2006 resulted in savings of $3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.

However, the new increased lead times for hurricane watches and warnings will lead to an increase in the length of coast warned, due to the higher uncertainties in hurricane tracks at longer forecast lead times. Between 2004 - 2008, approximately 25% of the coast that was placed under a hurricane warning actually received hurricane force winds; this percentage was 20% for areas placed under a hurricane watch. These percentages will decline with the new increased watch and warning lead times, costing money in unnecessary evacuations, and leading to increased complacency in the warned population due to too much "crying wolf".

Balanced against these increased costs is the potential disastrous loss of life should a hurricane hit an unprepared, heavily populated shoreline. With the U.S. population continuing to increase rapidly in coastal regions, the time needed to evacuate vulnerable populated regions is increasing. For example, evacuation times for the major urban areas of Texas are 28 - 34 hours for a major hurricane. Though the costs of overwarning the coast is significant, the savings in both human lives and dollars from increased warning times should outweigh these costs. In the 2002 book, Hurricane: Coping With Disaster, Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former director of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, analyzed hurricane death statistics. In 1950, about 70 U.S. residents died per year in hurricanes. In the 50 years since, the coastal population expanded by a factor of 3.2, so if we were managing the hurricane problem the way we did in 1950, we would be losing about 220 people a year. The long-term average is still about twenty per year, not including the deaths due to the levee failures during Katrina. That means we're preventing about 200 deaths per year compared with 1950. How much are these saved lives worth? A life, is, of course, priceless, but in the cold world of economics, the value of life-saving scientific research and government regulations is estimated using statistics of what people are willing to pay to avoid certain risks, and what extra money employers pay their workers to take on additional risks. This data comes primarily from payroll statistics, but opinion surveys also play a role. In 2004, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) valued an American life at $8 million. EPA cut the value of a life by 8% that year, and a further 3% in May 2008, making the economic value of a life $6.9 million in today's dollars. The Department of Transportation gives a lower figure of a life as being worth $5.8 million. Using this number implies a savings of about $1.2 billion per year for the 200 lives saved per year by better hurricane warnings and evacuations. Today's decision by NHC to increase warning times should continue this trend of saving lives, which will also provide considerable monetary benefit. Despite the increased costs and dangers of "crying wolf" too often due to overwarning the coast, I believe that the double value of saving lives--for both the intrinsic and monetary value of a human life--makes NHC's move of increasing warning and watch times the right call.

References
Whitehead, J.C., 2003: "One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of Hurricane evacuation", Ocean and Coastal Management 46, 1069.

I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ElConando:


excuse me I read the book! I may be young but I am cultured.


Hey El! The leaves are dropping off my trees. How cold did it get by you? I am on the islands in Coral Ridge and it was COLD!!!! I did leave my outdoor lights on and the geckos did stay around them.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Your right! This is beginning to look like the 76-77 Arctic Outbreaks now. Siberia and the Entire Arctic airmasses dumped into the US, until there was no more real Arctic air left..


If I remember correctly, it snowed in Tampa in 1977. Not that I was alive to see it.
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Quoting ElConando:
you mean remarkable?


Your right! This is beginning to look like the 76-77 Arctic Outbreaks now. Siberia and the Entire Arctic airmasses dumped into the US, until there was no more real Arctic air left..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Grothar:


You're too young to remember that book or the movie. All I remember is Julie Christy. LOL

??? Really, Gro, have you seen my blog? No reason to be deaf, dumb, and blind to what was published or produced before one's awareness came to be...

*enjoying the cold? /sarc_off*
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I just saw this article about the "Frozen Gore" statue and thought I'd share.

As one of my friends asked me the other night, "Where is global warming when we need it?"

Link
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I found my long underwear Phinally..

Carnival Season Begins tonight along St. Charles Ave.
Will get some video of it.

Also today is Joan of Arc's Birthday as well, and is celebrated tonight in the French Quarter with a Parade an re-enactment.


The Krewe de Jeanne d'Arc will gather Jan. 6 to form a moving tableau of Joan of Arc's life, going from the statue of Bienville on Conti and Decatur streets to the statue of Joan of Arc near the French Market.

Twelfth night kicks off Carnival and honors Joan of Arc's birthday with festival and parade
By Molly Reid, The Times-Picayune
January 06, 2010, 5:50AM


If you're in the French Quarter Wednesday -- Epiphany -- don't be surprised if you see women dressed in medieval garb on horseback and a throng of followers accompanied by bagpipes and Gregorian chants.

It's not a Renaissance fair come to town; it's Joan of Arc's birthday.

The Maid of Orleans, so named for her figurative leadership in France's tide-turning battle against the English at Orleans during the Hundred Years' War, turns 598 on Jan. 6, and for the second year local St. Joan fans will turn Decatur Street into a moving tableau of her life.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Yikes

With respect to posting 811, the lower of the two Highs at 1051 is pretty much on top of our location.

We haven't reached our normal daily high temperature (which is 12F) in the last 5 weeks and with that high pressure system may not for some time to come.

Where is el nino? Is it broken?
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Chances for snow seem to be increasing for C and N FL. I have a feeling that someone is going to get a nice dump of snow. I figure I'll just go ahead and put that out there. My track record is pretty good we'll see if I'm right this time because timing and placement of this next upper trough Sat. is key.


Would that include the Tampa area?
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P451...very nice...
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451 is the second loop of Hudson Bay?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Extended Forecast Discussion


SERIOUS COLD OUTBREAK THREAT FOR FLORIDA AS THE NEXT COLD SURGE
DRIVES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH VERY LOW MID
LEVEL HTS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROF THAT HAS A NEAR -4
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IN ITS HTS AND A -4.5 TO 5 NEG STANDARDIZED
H850 TEMP ANOMALY BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF WELL BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND DEEP INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
FLORIDA WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI. THIS
BEGINS TO RIVAL THE DEC 1989 AND POSSIBLY THE JAN 1977 COLD
OUTBREAKS ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED ON DAY 3 BY A COLD
FRONT WITH OVERRUNNING WINTRY TYPE OF PRECIPTAION ACROSS NRN AND
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST 12 GFS CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL
CENTER COLD POOL OFFERS A THREAT OF COASTAL SNOW ACROSS NERN FL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
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Quoting Grothar:


You're too young to remember that book or the movie. All I remember is Julie Christy. LOL


excuse me I read the book! I may be young but I am cultured.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
12Z GENS zdp Image Loop

64 frames

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting ElConando:


LOL.


You're too young to remember that book or the movie. All I remember is Julie Christy. LOL
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Quoting ElConando:


Really!? So this cold period cold last longer than into next Tuesday for Florida?


The GFS models get an "A" for their handling of the last 2 weeks weather events.

At this moment, we may see more cold air nationwide into next week. HOWEVER, things change.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


It is a given, the FIRST system pulls into the SE US over the weekend.

The 2nd H near the N Pole, looks like that may come down into the USA. NWS DFW, TX mentioned the next trough sweeping through here next Tuesday.

IF that H over N Canada sweeps into the US, it would be truely unremarkable!!
you mean remarkable?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
question was answered in an earlier post.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Quoting ElConando:


what does this mean for the South Eastern U.S. currently freezing their butts off?


It is a given, the FIRST system pulls into the SE US over the weekend.

The 2nd H near the N Pole, looks like that may come down into the USA. NWS DFW, TX mentioned the next trough sweeping through here next Tuesday.

IF that H over N Canada sweeps into the US, it would be truely unremarkable!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting ElConando:


what does this mean for the South Eastern U.S. currently freezing their butts off?


Strong Highs will cause very steep pressure gradients pushing more siberian air this way into the southeastern US.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Quick lookin. It's 64 here. It looks like we won't even get as warm as yesterday, so that must be some way cold air coming this way.....


Could you reach, dare I say, 49 degrees :o ?!?!?!?!?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Quick lookin. It's 64 here. It looks like we won't even get as warm as yesterday, so that must be some way cold air coming this way.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21556
Quoting Bordonaro:
This is NOT good, notice the 1051 MB H over the NW Territories AND notice the 1036MB H over the Northern Canadian Archipelego.



what does this mean for the South Eastern U.S. currently freezing their butts off?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Quoting Grothar:


Farenheit 451 all over again??


LOL.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
This is NOT good, notice the 1051 MB H over the NW Territories AND notice the 1036MB H over the Northern Canadian Archipelego.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting CaneWarning:


I just read a story on CNBC that people in the UK are buying cheap books from second hand stores to burn for heating their homes. The price of gas is so high there, many are unable to use it for heat any more.


Farenheit 451 all over again??
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Quoting unf97:


Bordonaro,

This may definitely be an indication that the pattern may stay this way into next week as well. Earlier thinking from what the models were showing was that we would see a change in the pattern. Intersting indeed.


The models are currently frozen, like the rest of the US, UK, Northern and Central Europe, China, South Korea, Canada, Russia.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
808. unf97
Quoting Bordonaro:
Intersting note from the NWS in Ft Worth, TX..After a wonderful and invigorating Siberian Blast now we may have MORE COLD next week, with possible frozen precip:

WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF
I-20 AND WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHS THURSDAY
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-20 FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
0 TO -3 WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED.

AS USUAL WITH ARCTIC AIRMASSES...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN
MODIFYING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
WE MAY NOT EVEN GO ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOWS SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR AS A STRONG WAVE
APPROACHES TEXAS FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME SENDING THE NEXT
FRONT INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP IT WILL BE. WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN FOR NOW.


Bordonaro,

This may definitely be an indication that the pattern may stay this way into next week as well. Earlier thinking from what the models were showing was that we would see a change in the pattern. Intersting indeed.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
807. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


I wonder if you could get some frozen precip. on Sat. as well, as this disturbance swings in from the WNW.


GFS keeps it all offshore. Maybe some passing flurries.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting atmoaggie:

Really. 80% of the music I like is older than I.

(And I caught Press' Beatles reference...Abbey Road is certainly a favorite)


Old and New Again (role models!)...U2

Atmo, when you have a minute, would you please weigh in on discussion on Portlight, post #14 and continuing?

Any/everyone's opinions/critiques appreciated.
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Intersting note from the NWS in Ft Worth, TX..After a wonderful and invigorating Siberian Blast now we may have MORE COLD next week, with possible frozen precip:

WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF
I-20 AND WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHS THURSDAY
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-20 FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
0 TO -3 WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED.

AS USUAL WITH ARCTIC AIRMASSES...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN
MODIFYING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
WE MAY NOT EVEN GO ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOWS SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR AS A STRONG WAVE
APPROACHES TEXAS FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME SENDING THE NEXT
FRONT INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP IT WILL BE. WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN FOR NOW.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
803. unf97
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



000
SXUS72 KMFL 061230
RERMIA

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
0725 AM EST WED JAN 06 2010

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT MIAMI...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 40 DEGREES WAS TIED AT MIAMI TODAY. THIS
TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 40 SET IN 1919.


Thanks. Very impressive cold air mass indeed for it to get to 40 degrees at Miami WFO. They tied the record for this date, as did the Jax WFO.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
802. IKE
Quoting IKE:
My hometown...

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Clear
41.1 °F
Clear
Windchill: 41 °F
Humidity: 25%
Dew Point: 9 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 30.24 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft


Crestview,FL. forecast...about 25 miles...WSW of my location....

"Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph."


From looking at the 12Z GFS, I think the Tallahassee office needs to include a chance of frozen precip. for Defuniak Springs tomorrow night. Snow...or sleet.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
800. unf97
My morning lows for this week so far

01/03/10: 25.8
01/04/10: 25.2
01/05/10: 25.7
01/06/10: 20.6 (season low)

Impressive stretch of hard freezes here at my NE FL location.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Jeff9641:
beijing, China had the heaviest snow in over 25 years a few days ago. Also, heavy snow fell in Soul South korea for the first time in ages. Guys this cold is everywhere in the northern Hemisphere.
yep its winter a strong one at that
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting unf97:
What was the morning low officially for Miami earlier today?

If I am not mistaken, I think upper 30s were being reporing in interior Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties. One of our fellow bloggers who lives in Oakland Park, which is essentially West Fort Lauderdale, reported a temp of 33 degrees this morning on the blog earlier today.



000
SXUS72 KMFL 061230
RERMIA

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
0725 AM EST WED JAN 06 2010

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT MIAMI...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 40 DEGREES WAS TIED AT MIAMI TODAY. THIS
TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 40 SET IN 1919.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I didn't know you young'uns liked the classics like Ferris Bueller :) That came out summer between my jr and sr year in HS! :)


Are you kiddn, I loved it, I remember that from when I was in the 3rd grade
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796. IKE
My hometown...

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Clear
41.1 °F
Clear
Windchill: 41 °F
Humidity: 25%
Dew Point: 9 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 30.24 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Ah, yesterday I stood outside, the Sun was shining, beautiful, no breeze, 43F, dreaming it was a 75F day in Arlington, TX..

Then, oh, I awoke from my daydream:



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
747 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
747 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING A FRIGID AIRMASS INTO NORTH TEXAS. LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 TO 40 MPH. LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY
CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A GATESVILLE TO
ATHENS LINE BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MIDDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting 1900hurricane:

You mean we aren't supposed to like movies that are older than we are? :P

Really. 80% of the music I like is older than I.

(And I caught Press' Beatles reference...Abbey Road is certainly a favorite)
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793. unf97
What was the morning low officially for Miami earlier today?

If I am not mistaken, I think upper 30s were being reporing in interior Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties. One of our fellow bloggers who lives in Oakland Park, which is essentially West Fort Lauderdale, reported a temp of 33 degrees this morning on the blog earlier today.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Floodman:
778.

Congratulations...those are good days; you pretty much sit back and watch it snow


sounds good to me (:
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778.

Congratulations...those are good days; you pretty much sit back and watch it snow
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784. 1900hurricane 5:56 PM GMT on January 06, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I didn't know you young'uns liked the classics like Ferris Bueller :) That came out summer between my jr and sr year in HS! :)

You mean we aren't supposed to like movies that are older than we are? :P

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Who you talkin' 'bout, Willis?

Love, Nana
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.