NHC increases hurricane forecast lead times

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on January 05, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced today that beginning with the 2010 hurricane season, their hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for the U.S. coast will be extended in time by an additional 12 hours. Warnings will now be issued 36 hours in advance instead of 24 hours, and watches will be issued 48 hours in advance, instead of 36 hours. The increase in lead time for watches and warnings has been made possible by the tremendous improvement in hurricane track forecasts, which have improved by over 50% in the past twenty years (Figure 1). "With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life-saving decisions regarding evacuations", said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, in today's press release.


Figure 1. Average track errors for NHC Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecasts issued between 1990 - 2008. Track errors have improved by over 50% in the past 20 years. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Commentary
NHC has been debating for a number of years how best to "invest" the gains accrued from the steady improvement in hurricane track forecasts. One obvious savings from these better hurricane forecasts has come from the reduced evacuation costs. When a hurricane warning is issued 24 hours before the expected arrival of hurricane-force winds at the coast, it costs approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina coast (Whitehead, 2003). According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the length of coast warned decreased significantly in the past decade. During the decade of the 1990s, the average length of a hurricane warning was 455 miles, but that fell to just 335 miles between 2000 - 2006. Thus, an average of 120 fewer miles of coast were warned, at an average savings of $120 million per hurricane warning issuance. During this period, 17 storms requiring 25 hurricane warnings occurred. If the costs of coastal evacuations are indeed $1 million per mile, the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 - 2006 resulted in savings of $3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.

However, the new increased lead times for hurricane watches and warnings will lead to an increase in the length of coast warned, due to the higher uncertainties in hurricane tracks at longer forecast lead times. Between 2004 - 2008, approximately 25% of the coast that was placed under a hurricane warning actually received hurricane force winds; this percentage was 20% for areas placed under a hurricane watch. These percentages will decline with the new increased watch and warning lead times, costing money in unnecessary evacuations, and leading to increased complacency in the warned population due to too much "crying wolf".

Balanced against these increased costs is the potential disastrous loss of life should a hurricane hit an unprepared, heavily populated shoreline. With the U.S. population continuing to increase rapidly in coastal regions, the time needed to evacuate vulnerable populated regions is increasing. For example, evacuation times for the major urban areas of Texas are 28 - 34 hours for a major hurricane. Though the costs of overwarning the coast is significant, the savings in both human lives and dollars from increased warning times should outweigh these costs. In the 2002 book, Hurricane: Coping With Disaster, Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former director of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, analyzed hurricane death statistics. In 1950, about 70 U.S. residents died per year in hurricanes. In the 50 years since, the coastal population expanded by a factor of 3.2, so if we were managing the hurricane problem the way we did in 1950, we would be losing about 220 people a year. The long-term average is still about twenty per year, not including the deaths due to the levee failures during Katrina. That means we're preventing about 200 deaths per year compared with 1950. How much are these saved lives worth? A life, is, of course, priceless, but in the cold world of economics, the value of life-saving scientific research and government regulations is estimated using statistics of what people are willing to pay to avoid certain risks, and what extra money employers pay their workers to take on additional risks. This data comes primarily from payroll statistics, but opinion surveys also play a role. In 2004, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) valued an American life at $8 million. EPA cut the value of a life by 8% that year, and a further 3% in May 2008, making the economic value of a life $6.9 million in today's dollars. The Department of Transportation gives a lower figure of a life as being worth $5.8 million. Using this number implies a savings of about $1.2 billion per year for the 200 lives saved per year by better hurricane warnings and evacuations. Today's decision by NHC to increase warning times should continue this trend of saving lives, which will also provide considerable monetary benefit. Despite the increased costs and dangers of "crying wolf" too often due to overwarning the coast, I believe that the double value of saving lives--for both the intrinsic and monetary value of a human life--makes NHC's move of increasing warning and watch times the right call.

References
Whitehead, J.C., 2003: "One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of Hurricane evacuation", Ocean and Coastal Management 46, 1069.

I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 939 - 889

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

sooo how far do yall think the snow will go?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Trajectory shifts in the Arctic and subarctic freshwater cycle
Bruce J. Peterson1,*, James McClelland2, Ruth Curry3, Robert M. Holmes4, John E. Walsh5 and Knut Aagaard6

Abstract

Manifold changes in the freshwater cycle of high-latitude lands and oceans have been reported in the past few years. A synthesis of these changes in freshwater sources and in ocean freshwater storage illustrates the complementary and synoptic temporal pattern and magnitude of these changes over the past 50 years. Increasing river discharge anomalies and excess net precipitation on the ocean contributed ~20,000 cubic kilometers of fresh water to the Arctic and high-latitude North Atlantic oceans from lows in the 1960s to highs in the 1990s. Sea ice attrition provided another ~15,000 cubic kilometers, and glacial melt added ~2000 cubic kilometers. The sum of anomalous inputs from these freshwater sources matched the amount and rate at which fresh water accumulated in the North Atlantic during much of the period from 1965 through 1995. The changes in freshwater inputs and ocean storage occurred in conjunction with the amplifying North Atlantic Oscillation and rising air temperatures. Fresh water may now be accumulating in the Arctic Ocean and will likely be exported southward if and when the North Atlantic Oscillation enters into a new high phase.


1 Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
2 Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA.
3 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, MS 21, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
4 Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA 02540, USA.
5 International Arctic Research Center, 930 Koyukuk Drive, Post Office Box 75340, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.
6 Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, 1013 NE 40th Street, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.

*Correspondence e-mail: peterson@mbl.edu


I read a book about this last year. IF the North Atlantic Conveyor changes, boy oh boy, the weather the SE is experiencing would be considered a "heat wave".
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Here's some info from the MLB NWS Site:

WOULD BE REMISS IF I DIDN`T MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP BEHIND THE INTIAL FRONTAL SURGE.
DATA FROM BOTH GLOBAL
AND MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING TIME SECTIONS/RAOBS INDICATE STRONG
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION OF COLD DRY AIR BENEATH A SATURATED AIR MASS
ABOVE H8-H7 AS THE POS TILT H50 TROUGH LAGS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT...BEFORE THE DRY AIR DEEPENS...GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT SOME PRECIP OUT OF THE MID LEVELS AS THE 0C H85
LINE SHIFTS SWD INTO THE NRN/CTRL CWA (BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES NWD)
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY FROZEN P-TYPE COULD FALL AS SOME LIGHT
SNOWFLAKES/GRAUPEL OR SLEET. OF COURSE...TEMP/RH FIELDS WOULD HAVE
TO ALIGN JUST RIGHT FOR THIS TO TAKE PLACE - FOR EXAMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD LAG...OR DRY ADVECTION COULD OCCUR STRONGER/FASTER
THAN MODELS ADVERTISE - SO A LOT CAN HAPPEN TO CAUSE MIXED PRECIP
*NOT* TO FALL IN THIS CASE.
HOWEVER...FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT AS RARE
IN ECFL (E.G. 2003, 2006 AND 2008) AS ONE MIGHT THINK.

IN ANY EVENT...TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER INSERTING THIS OUTCOME IN THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME...JUST MENTIONING IT AS FOOD FOR THOUGHT.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Animated Surface Map, someone, anyone, give that Arctic/Siberian Front a speeding ticket already!!

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Grothar:


Just watched the local new and they said tonight will break all records set as far back as 1903, and this week-end may be even colder. Our temperatures will be in the low 30's tonight with some 20's in the interior of Dade and Broward counties. You called it again Bord.


I cannot figure out or forecast my way out of a paper sack when it comes to Tropical Systems.

However, I am real familiar with cold weather patterns and severe weather patterns. I use the same tools the NWS uses, their computer models. And remember, I am not a meteorologist, maybe, I should go back to college for Meteorology :0)!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
... RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ... FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW... OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS... LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Allan Hoffman, a met out of Raliegh, NC, link to his Wed 1-6-10 article titled, "Very cold weather to grip the US, deep into Texas and Florida", ENJOY FL snow/wintry precip people :0)

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Hey Jeff,I just want to say thank you for hepling me set up my blog and I love your blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Portlight info, 411, update, scoop...
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
929. Skyepony (Mod)
Trajectory shifts in the Arctic and subarctic freshwater cycle
Bruce J. Peterson1,*, James McClelland2, Ruth Curry3, Robert M. Holmes4, John E. Walsh5 and Knut Aagaard6

Abstract

Manifold changes in the freshwater cycle of high-latitude lands and oceans have been reported in the past few years. A synthesis of these changes in freshwater sources and in ocean freshwater storage illustrates the complementary and synoptic temporal pattern and magnitude of these changes over the past 50 years. Increasing river discharge anomalies and excess net precipitation on the ocean contributed ~20,000 cubic kilometers of fresh water to the Arctic and high-latitude North Atlantic oceans from lows in the 1960s to highs in the 1990s. Sea ice attrition provided another ~15,000 cubic kilometers, and glacial melt added ~2000 cubic kilometers. The sum of anomalous inputs from these freshwater sources matched the amount and rate at which fresh water accumulated in the North Atlantic during much of the period from 1965 through 1995. The changes in freshwater inputs and ocean storage occurred in conjunction with the amplifying North Atlantic Oscillation and rising air temperatures. Fresh water may now be accumulating in the Arctic Ocean and will likely be exported southward if and when the North Atlantic Oscillation enters into a new high phase.


1 Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
2 Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA.
3 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, MS 21, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
4 Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA 02540, USA.
5 International Arctic Research Center, 930 Koyukuk Drive, Post Office Box 75340, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.
6 Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, 1013 NE 40th Street, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.

*Correspondence e-mail: peterson@mbl.edu
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


Siberian Express, Flight Number -35, will move into DFW, TX at Midnight tonight, continue into the Deep South and the Southeast US on Sat 1-9-10.

This one is worse than the first piece of Arctic air. The first Arctic front was like dropping 5 ice cubes into a tall glass of water. The SECOND front is like dropping a ton of ice into the backyard swimming pool in comparison. It's a large chunk, covering the Western Half of Canada.

And yes, they're may be a third Arctic outbreak earlier next week. This Arctic front is hauling real fast. And this is not normal by any means :0).


Just watched the local new and they said tonight will break all records set as far back as 1903, and this week-end may be even colder. Our temperatures will be in the low 30's tonight with some 20's in the interior of Dade and Broward counties. You called it again Bord.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami Area Forecast Discussion

TO PUT IT BLUNTLY...THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MISERABLE...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH COLD AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AS A SIBERIAN SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN
EVEN MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S IN
SOME AREAS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ADDING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THERE IS ALSO A
REMOTE CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET OR ICE PELLETS MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
REGARDLESS...
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DEPART. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING AROUND BASE OF DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
ON SUNDAY...AND INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND AN EVEN HIGHER FREEZE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS Tampa:

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...INTERESTING SCENARIO TO SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FINISHING THE COLD SNAP. LATEST
MODELS DEEPEN MID-UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W GULF WITH SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXES ROTATING OFF THE CENTRAL TO E GULF OVER THE AREA IN
FAST JET SW FLOW.
SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS FROM AROUND THE AREA SHOWING OVERRUNNING TYPE RAIN SHIELD
AND WITH GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS AFTER 06Z.
MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED WITH
THIS SET UP AS WELL AND HAVE RAISED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 PERCENT TO
SLIGHT CHANCE N AND CHANCE CENTRAL AND SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. NOW THE COMPLICATED PART... SURFACE TEMPS TO BE
COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S OVER THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO
MID 30S AROUND THE BAY AREA AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS. THESE LOW SURFACE TEMPS COMBINED WITH POPS WOULD
INDICATED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIP...SO WILL
CAUTIOUSLY DISCUSS.
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY EXPECT SATURATED ENVIRONMENT
ABOVE 10K FT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP THEN WARM LAYER BETWEEN
700-900MB FOR COLD RAIN..THEN COLDER BELOW FREEZING LAYER FROM
900-1000MB THEN SOME WARMER SLIGHT ABOVE 32 DEGREE AIR AT/NEAR THE
SURFACE. SO CURRENT THINKING IS PRIMARILY A COLD RAIN AND RAW
CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE SLIMMEST OF
CHANCES OF A FROZEN MIX/BLEND AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormChaser81:
From the Emergency Management Team Based out of Tallahassee, FL.

An update from the National Weather Service is attached below. NOTE a few items of interest:

* Rainfall is expected late Thursday evening.
* Freezing temperatures follow immediately after.
* Ice on roads and walkways, especially on bridges, is a distinct possibility for Friday morning.
* A wintry mix of precipitation, including snow, is possible SOUTH and EAST of Tallahassee in Central and North Central Florida Friday morning.


If this Siberian Blast could sing, this would be it's song :0)

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Yuck!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the Emergency Management Team Based out of Tallahassee, FL.

An update from the National Weather Service is attached below. NOTE a few items of interest:

* Rainfall is expected late Thursday evening.
* Freezing temperatures follow immediately after.
* Ice on roads and walkways, especially on bridges, is a distinct possibility for Friday morning.
* A wintry mix of precipitation, including snow, is possible SOUTH and EAST of Tallahassee in Central and North Central Florida Friday morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the models are coming on to the situation I mentioned yesterday with possibly snow fall across Florida. The GFS features a cold front moving through with moisture and cold air advection quickly behind it to allow for some winter precipitation behind the the front. The GFS features a thickness of 540dm extending nearly completely through Florida. In addition, the models show a subfreezing PBL and a freezing 850mb-700mb layer with 1520gpm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
How many GIS people are in here? using ESRI ArcMap
Quoting RitaEvac:
How many GIS people are in here? using ESRI ArcMap


I use GIS everyday at work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NCEP MAP of W CANADA @ 6AM CST, 1-6-10** BIG BAD HIGH**

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Grothar:


Yo Bord! How many of these do they expect to keep coming? It seems that each one is worse than the next. Is it unusual for these to be moving so fast?


Siberian Express, Flight Number -35, will move into DFW, TX at Midnight tonight, continue into the Deep South and the Southeast US on Sat 1-9-10.

This one is worse than the first piece of Arctic air. The first Arctic front was like dropping 5 ice cubes into a tall glass of water. The SECOND front is like dropping a ton of ice into the backyard swimming pool in comparison. It's a large chunk, covering the Western Half of Canada.

And yes, they're may be a third Arctic outbreak earlier next week. This Arctic front is hauling real fast. And this is not normal by any means :0).
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Happy belated birthday, leelee!

Ft. Lauderdale isn't mentioned here, but looks like you're not alone. Be safe!

Excerpt from yesterday's Emerg. Personnel National Situation Update:

South:
The region will be generally dry and cold. This morning%u2019s lows will drop into the teens and 20s all the way to the Gulf Coast with 30s and 40s confined to southern Texas and central and southern Florida.
Red Flag Warnings are again in effect for southeast Alabama, south-central Georgia, the Florida panhandle and the Big Bend area due to low relative humidity.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
328 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

.AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON THURSDAY...
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-070400-
/O.UPG.KIND.WS.A.0001.100107T0900Z-100108T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KIND.WW.Y.0001.100107T0900Z-100108T1200Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
328 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOW. HEAVY SNOWFALL
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY.

* ACCUMULATIONS OF FOUR TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.


* SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 200 AM TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
Quoting tornadodude:
here it comes (:


Get Excited! I can't say the same thing here, but it appears that the radar may be showing increasing moisture levels by detecting some virga.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Coming out of lurkdom to say Happy Birthday to all the Capricorns! I'm one too, birthday was two days ago, cousin's is on the 8th, husband on the 11th, another cousin on the 12th and a nephew on the 13th.

btw just noticed the conditions in ft lauderdale says "smoke", I know we had a fire watch last night, hope this is a small thing and not something big
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
here it comes (:

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
Yikes, have I been out-classed by the youth credentials.
SO...I'm going to go do what any self-respecting woman "of a certain age" would do...
I'm going to go color my roots.
BBL!

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting RitaEvac:
Patrap must be frozen stiff somewhere, he hasnt been on all day


He was on earlier posting satellite pics and said he found his long underwear, thats the last we heard of him. Maybe he put his long underwear on and feel asleep from the warmth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HGX's take on snow with the Siberian blast:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Patrap must be frozen stiff somewhere, he hasnt been on all day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


hmm will definitely look into that, thanks!


Have to second the Geography major thing. My undergrad and graduate work was in Geography and I took a number of meteorology and climatology courses.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trinigal:


My Bachelor's degree is in GIS and Cartography :)


Cool mine is Geography and a minor in Geology.

Then I got my Masters of Geographic Information Science which I focused on remote sensing (satellites).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1049mb high and 1052mb are gonna merge into one super high pressure!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:
NCEP Surface Map 18Z/12 NOON CST WE 1-6-10..

Siberian air mass has crossed the Continental Divide over MT & WY. A 1052MB H and a 1049MB H over central and western Canada. Another Arctic front and a 1037MB H over far North Canada:



Yo Bord! How many of these do they expect to keep coming? It seems that each one is worse than the next. Is it unusual for these to be moving so fast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting usa777:


lol I resemble that remark..actually the Whiskey is a good mixed crowd. From kittens to cougars..lol


HA, chuckles... oh, that's FINE.

I meant the not remembering Saturday part!!
Losing too many cookies...
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting trinigal:


My Bachelor's degree is in GIS and Cartography :)


cool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
How many GIS people are in here? using ESRI ArcMap


My Bachelor's degree is in GIS and Cartography :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Excellent Plan... if you're 30 or under.

Oh wait, I'm forgetting a wise friend's comment...men aren't even grown-ups 'til around age 38.


lol I resemble that remark..actually the Whiskey is a good mixed crowd. From kittens to cougars..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


That's wasn't a great area to be in either!


We were very lucky. I had shutters on the entire house and impact glass on most windows. We had just put in the reinforced garage door a few months before. The trees didn't fare too well and the pool looked like the Black Lagoon. Now I live in Coral Ridge in Ft. Lauderdale. I like to stay as high as possible!! LOL. Always live on a ridge in SFL if you can.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NCEP Surface Map 18Z/12 NOON CST WE 1-6-10..

Siberian air mass has crossed the Continental Divide over MT & WY. A 1052MB H and a 1049MB H over central and western Canada. Another Arctic front and a 1037MB H over far North Canada:

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting RitaEvac:
How many GIS people are in here? using ESRI ArcMap

Not me. I just know what I do from needing to merge satellite data of different projections using IDL and/or McIDAS and/or simple Fortran...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
How many GIS people are in here? using ESRI ArcMap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormChaser81:


Just go get an old or new porto poty cut a hole in the floor and there you go. I'd say use the new one it comes with chum. lol

Ewwwww...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting usa777:


Mine is the 8th..going to the Whiskey here in Annapolis. I plan on hating life Sat..lol


Excellent Plan... if you're 30 or under.

Oh wait, I'm forgetting a wise friend's comment...men aren't even grown-ups 'til around age 38.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting atmoaggie:

Writing your own program to do it gets a little hairy: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/LambertConformalConicProjection.html


Lots of computing power needed to run all the formulas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
Quoting StormChaser81:


I let ESRI ArcMAP GIS do that for me with the click of a button. lol

Writing your own program to do it gets a little hairy: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/LambertConformalConicProjection.html
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting atmoaggie:

Until you have to reproject Lambert conic mapped data into cylindrical isotropic...
(isn't really that bad...)


GIS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Do electrical conditions cause a tropical storm to rapidly intensify?
Part I
http://www.youtube. com/watch? v=MnvMrvQ7rW0
Part II
http://www.youtube. com/watch? v=fnHY8H22hAY

Part III
http://www.youtube. com/watch? v=dWLqy4LuFek
Part IV
http://www.youtube. com/watch? v=xUmfW4ffObA

Methane Mike Doran argues that a tropical storm rapidly intensifies due to electrical conditions. The important implication is that CO2 is a significant electrical aspect of the electrics of a tropical storm and hence this discussion has huge climate change significance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Not to mention those words?!

Okay, the Capricorn birthdays start tomorrow with Mrs. Floodman (LongStrangeTrip)...and continue throughout the month.
T-Dude's the 9th, Patrap the 15th, Atmo (fill in the ?)
When is your's again? Going ice crabbing?

The test will be Open Blog.


Mine is the 8th..going to the Whiskey here in Annapolis. I plan on hating life Sat..lol and no Awake..it's to cold to go ice crabbing..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

11th

Planning on building a ice-fishing shack about a 1/2 mile out on Lake P. Anyone have a gas-powered auger I can use on the ice?


Just go get an old or new porto poty cut a hole in the floor and there you go. I'd say use the new one it comes with chum. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 939 - 889

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.